* Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun * (3 Viewers)

Orange&Blue · Jan 31, 2024

Apparently Biden is giving the finger to congress and is gifting excess military equipment that Ukraine doesn't need/prioritize to Greece so that Greece will give their old Soviet equipment to Ukraine. Brilliant. although that doesn't help with artillery shells I'm afraid.

themeistersinger · Jan 31, 2024

UN Court Rejects Most of Ukraine’s ‘Terror’ Case Against Russia - The Moscow Times

The United Nations' top court on Wednesday mostly rejected Ukraine's claims that Russia was financing "terrorism" in eastern Ukraine, saying only that Moscow had failed to investigate alleged breaches.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Don't Toews Me · Feb 1, 2024

Senior officer: Ukraine's main issue lies in creating new units and reserve

Ukraine may be at virtual parity with Russia in terms of soldiers under arms, but it has a larger problem in relation to scope for setting up new units and a greater reserve, the head of the Estonian National Defense College (Kaitseväe akadeemia) says.

news.err.ee

Ukraine may be at virtual parity with Russia in terms of soldiers under arms, but it has a larger problem in relation to scope for setting up new units and a greater reserve, the head of the Estonian National Defense College (Kaitseväe akadeemia) says.

The present figures could be around 600,000 ranged against each other on each side, possibly slightly lower in Ukraine's case, though since the latter is mainly on the defensive, this makes for a better conservation of personnel, he said.

Appearing on ETV show "Ukraina stuudio," Brig. Gen. Vahur Karus said that: "It is certainly, and perhaps the offensive last summer is evidence of this, an issue for Ukraine in creating reserves and new units. They obviously cannot do this on their territory, as the enemy has the ability to identify all such points and attack them," referring to occupied Ukrainian territory."

"Perhaps a question is to what extent the West can support the creation of such new units for Ukraine, meaning Ukraine needs the people it is currently mobilizing to get proper training before these units are sent to the front. From that point, you will start to get that synergy whereby you can switch out units in the normal way. Those who are relieved will be given new training, get upgraded and go on to fulfill their role," he continued.

Increasingly messages have been coming from Ukraine to the effect that they are running out of ammunition. Karus said he saw the problem as mainly stemming from the fact that most Central and Eastern European nations which have given weaponry to Ukraine had donated Soviet-era equipment, for which ammunition is no longer made.

At the same time, ramping up the production of modern weaponry and ammunition will take time.

"Looking historically, take World War One and World War Two for instance, it takes approximately two years for nations to get their economies up and running on a war footing," Karus said.

The current war will reach its second anniversary in less than a month's time.

"In this respect, we are currently entering a somewhat perilous period where Russia is already two years into this regime of very deliberately and consciously setting up its arms industry. Europe is only now starting to catch up, so it's just a question of when this 'full' capacity will be reached, and then how much we can provide to the Ukrainians," the brigadier general continued.

Also appearing on "Ukraina stuudio" was Aivar Hanniotti, coordinator of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with the volunteer Defense League (Kaitseliit).

As many as 80,000 drone flights may be taking place per month on the front-line at present, he said.

The bulk of drones are of the FPV multi-rotor variety, which deliver an explosive charge to the target, Hanniotti said.

These could be produced locally and rapidly in Ukraine. Their short shelf-life means they get used up quickly also.
They are used by both sides, though there are differences in quantity between the two sides.

"It's just that the Russian military industry has no got itself going to the extent that when the Ukrainians have 300 of them at the front line, the Russians can use 800 similar drones, in the same sector," he said.

Drone technology is changing very quickly, he added. "The greatest difference relates to communication and GPS. These capabilities are used by both sides. If they understand and develop countermeasures to it, then one has to change ones actions, meaning the tech. Usually this cycle takes about a month, by which time both sides on the front will have completely switched out half out of their drone tech."

"In other words, everything will change in the span of a month. There are certain 'smart' units in the background, both on the Ukrainian side and on the Russian side, somewhere in the rear, who are always working on this and considering what they are going to do next."

Hanniotti also said that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is currently not massively useful so far as drones go, though this may change.

"AI, i.e. artificial intelligence, is already common on the front in prototypes, but it simply helps operators to make better choices. The genuine article AI has likely not reached the front yet, though thanks to the fact that these computer programs which support the operator help with aiming, collecting data from the sensors inside the drone, and giving a better picture to the operator, so they can say now make this last põks. In other words, the operator hits the fire-and-forget method. Things like this have already been done at the front," he explained.

This makes done operators themselves also targets for both sides in this war, but according to Hanniott, it isn't viable to relocate them further from the front any time soon. This topic could be revisited with further developments to AI, he added.

"Instead, the AI aspects helps in that if an enemy develops new jamming methods, the AI helps the drone to reach the target without operator communication. In other words, if your enemy takes away your communication, your GPS, and all your sensors are knocked out, and then the camera and with the computer, the drone can still fly to its target destination, and fulfill its mission and essentially destroy a Russian tank," Hanniotti added.

Video: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1752851083905441945

Ukrainian forces continue to field incredibly realistic decoys, seen here, a fully mechanically functional fake AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel radar system.

Video: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1752818201476362313

Russians channels shocked by annihilation of a russian advancing column in Novomikhaylivka on 30 January. Huge channels are sharing footage where in just 3 hours, 3 tanks, 7 MT-LBs and 1 BMP were destroyed.

As if it’s anything new from the second army in the world.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 1, 2024

Ukraine’s Drone Operators Race into the Future, Mostly with Overclocked Copters

Yes, drones are flying around in the Russo-Ukraine war using artificial intelligence to attack things. But it’s more like a cheap aircraft from Target with a bomb zip-tied to it, than a Terminator.

www.kyivpost.com

Over the past 23 months, in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), hobby drones have gone from a nice-to-have combat tool operated mostly by geeks and usable only for short-range reconnaissance, into a weapons system so critical, that deployment of an AFU combat brigade without a dedicated drone unit would be considered military idiocy by practically all ranks.

According to most drone operators and field commanders, about one in three (if drone videos swamping the Ukrainian internet are to be believed, it’s more) of every Russian combat vehicle destroyed in Ukraine these days is blown up, burnt or broken by a budget drone.

Ukrainian drone pilots have long understood that aircraft range depends most on the size and power of the battery of the aircraft, and the overall weight of whatever it is the drone must tote to the target.

As the war has ground on, Ukrainian field operators have learned to extend range by packing explosives into a lighter carrying container, by hooking a more powerful battery to the drone, or both.

In the early days of the war a drone might deliver an unmodified grenade or even a mortar round to a target. The problem then was steel is heavy.

In some units, drone artificers now melt the explosives out of conventional munitions to make a drone payload that weighs less but delivers a bigger bang. And if delivered by drone the explosives and shrapnel almost always detonate much closer to a Russian soldier or vehicle than if it were sent to target as a conventional artillery shell or mortar round.
Another approach to the problem, and one according to reports and Kyiv Post reporter observations practiced in most drone units operating across the AFU, has been to sacrifice some range in favor of a full-on anti-tank warhead, usually from an 82mm RPG grenade launcher, capable of destroying all but the very latest Russian tanks from most angles of attack.

By the second half of 2023, as the fighting line for the most part became static and both sides moved to dig in front line troops into deeper and safer bunkers and trenches, enterprising Ukrainian drone operators started to field drones carrying incendiary warheads.

The main component of that kind of munition is a compound called thermite, a pyrotechnic material made from metal powder and metal oxide that burns at near-sun-surface temperatures when ignited.

Popular with Ukraine drone armorers because the components are easy to find and thermite is ideal for setting a broken and abandoned armored vehicle on fire, the munition has found a new use attacking concrete pillboxes with troops inside.
Another design approach has been to deal with increasingly stronger Russian fortifications by precision-flying drones through gaps and windows of bunkers, and then detonating an anti-personnel munition inside.

Operators at an unidentified front-line location recorded manufacture and testing of one such weapon, as described by an artificer the device was a “jam tin” filled with explosives, ball bearings, and epoxy.

If purchased in a Ukrainian street bazaar or online wholesale store, most of the materials making up the bomb looked to cost, collectively, less than ten dollars.

The Ukrainian and Russian internet already is offering up reports, unconfirmed thus far, of drones carrying grenade launchers, or anti-tank missiles, or even machine guns. Drones with limited artificial intelligence, meanwhile, are a confirmed reality on the Ukrainian battlefield.

Technically, the first drones with artificial intelligence aboard were Russian attack drones called a Lancet, which were fielded in Fall 2022 and carried Cold War-era programming helping it tell the difference between a random object and the target the operator was aiming at, Andrey Maximov, a Moscow-based weapons engineering expert said in a December Linked In tech review.

By the latter half of 2023, Russia had upgraded Lancet into a version called Izdeliya 53, or Z-53, carrying a smarter automated guidance system enabling it to seek out and attack pre-programmed target profiles like tanks, trucks or a bunker.

The first confirmed Ukrainian drones with artificial intelligence enhancing targeting was, according to reports from both sides, seen around the village Krynky in mid-January, where Ukrainian Marines hold a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River.

According to Russian sources, five Ukrainian kamikaze aircraft took to the skies to defend Marine positions by flying to Russian lines, to seek, identify and strike target autonomously. The attacks took place without input from the pilot, whose only job was to fly the drone to the target area.

“The enemy (Ukrainian forces) has started testing drones with AI,” wrote the Russian mil-blogger VDV Za Chesnost’ I Spravedlivost’ (ВДВ за Честность и Справедливость) in a Jan. 29 report.

“Together with the creation of full-time strike drone units down to individual battalions, we can state that the enemy is ahead of us in introducing new technologies on the battlefield. All this can radically change the course of conducting the SVO (Russia’s war against Ukraine) and not in our favor. In fact, the enemy is now testing new means and forms of war in the Kherson direction.”

Robert Brovi, a Ukrainian drone commander deployed to the Kherson sector, in a Jan. 5 interview with Kyiv 24 television, confirmed Ukraine is now fielding drones with artificial intelligence to assist targeting, but added that the operator still was responsible for flying the aircraft to the attack sector and cueing the drone to home in.

Mini-drones are shaping the modern battlefield and are present in numbers never before seen in war, but, as a weapons system they cannot fully replace more conventional weapons like tanks and artillery, he said. But in future there need to be more and more, Brovi said.

Chadstroma · Feb 1, 2024

The Russians are building an impressive submarine fleet in the Black Sea

MSN

themeistersinger · Feb 1, 2024

Europe United: EU leaders agree on long-term support package for Ukraine

Europe United: EU leaders agree on long-term support package for Ukraine

The European Union confirmed a landmark $54 billion aid package for Ukraine on February 1 in Brussels, after EU leaders were able to overcome opposition from Hungary.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Don't Toews Me · Feb 2, 2024

Zaluzhnyi wrote a piece at CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/01/...QJ39LmoGZEa6Hrlij2c5bs62tLQhsWM1ccFb7psNDLmm8

We must acknowledge the significant advantage enjoyed by the enemy in mobilizing human resources and how that compares with the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures.

Finally, we remain hamstrung by the imperfections of the regulatory framework in our country, as well as the partial monopolization of the defense industry. These lead to production bottlenecks – in ammunition, for instance – which further deepen Ukraine’s dependence on its allies for supplies.

Our combat experience, particularly since 2022, is unique – but in the interests of victory, we must constantly find new ways and new capabilities to help us gain an advantage over the enemy.

Perhaps the number one priority here is mastery of an entire arsenal of (relatively) cheap, modern and highly effective, unmanned vehicles and other technological means.

Some Ukrainian UAV ongoing projects: https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1752994960838631504

"In 2022, we actually created the drone market from scratch. Now more than 200 Ukrainian companies are engaged in UAVs."

Mykhailo Fedorov, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, announced that during 2023, it was possible to significantly scale up the Ukrainian production of drones: 67 models received codification, 58 received a state contract.

Now Ukrainian developers are actively working on creating:

• Ukrainian "Lancet";
• artificial intelligence for automatic capture of targets by drone;
• guided ammunition;
• aiming at means of radio-electronic warfare and hitting them;
• anti-drone solutions, EW, etc.;
• robotic platforms.
Almost every week a new unit receives codification according to NATO standards.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1752975835710046472

The Russian National Guard, Rosgvardia, is incorporating three former Wagner assault detachments, the 15th, 16th and 17th, into its first Volunteer Corps formation. On 25 December 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law authorising Rosgvardia to form its own volunteer formations.

Rosgvardia will likely deploy its new volunteer detachments to Ukraine and Africa. Rosgvardia is reportedly offering volunteers six-month contracts for service in Ukraine, and nine-month contracts for service in Africa.

The incorporation of former Wagner assault detachments into Rosgvardia’s Volunteer Corps highly likely indicates that Wagner has been successfully subordinated to Rosgvardia, increasing the Russian state’s command and control over the Wagner Group.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 2, 2024

https://twitter.com/haltman/status/1753127261065113845

Ukraine's spy boss, Lt. Gen. Kyrulo Budanov, told me that the Ivanovets was hit with six MAGURA V5 sea drones that sent it to the bottom of the Black Sea.
He vows more such attacks and has a message for Moscow.
"Get ready," he said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/01/zelensky-zaluzhny-ukraine-military-shakeup/

But a swift, negative reaction in the military ranks, misgivings among some officials in Kyiv, and uncertainty in the West suggest Zelensky’s removal of the popular general could backfire — allowing Moscow to seize on the instability. It could also deliver a blow to morale among troops on the front lines, especially because there has been no public explanation for Zaluzhny’s expected dismissal.
“Only Russia wins in this situation,” said a current senior military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to do so publicly. “This was very poorly communicated,” the military official added. “People needed to be prepared because Zaluzhny is very respected — not only among soldiers but civilians, too.”
In the conversation between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, which the first senior official described, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid, the general laid out some parting thoughts about the problems his successor will inherit — making clear why a quick improvement of Ukraine’s position on the battlefield is unlikely.
Any new commander will still be fighting a larger, better-armed force in a war that has reached an attritional, grinding stalemate. The new commander will still need a robust influx of additional soldiers, to replace losses and to match Russia’s plan to send 400,000 more troops into the fight. And Ukrainian forces will still need more of everything: weapons, ammunition, vehicles and other equipment.
Zaluzhny wasn’t angry about his firing, the senior official said. Indeed, the relationship between the two men had frayed over the course of nearly two years of war with Russia. They simply didn’t trust each other, U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said. Zelensky, in turn, listened carefully on Monday night.
There is still a chance that the president could reverse course. A formal decree making Zaluzhny’s removal is expected to come this week, an official familiar with the matter said, but as of Thursday afternoon it had still not arrived.

Perhaps the most serious disagreement in the rift between Zelensky and Zaluzhny was the general’s request to mobilize more soldiers.
Russia has more forces and weapons than Ukraine, and for Kyiv to gain on the battlefield, Zaluzhny told the president, it must mobilize at least as many people as Russia plans to — some 400,000, according to the senior official familiar with their meeting. Ukraine must also prepare for losses, which are expected to be comparable to last year’s.
Zaluzhny’s ultimate figure was close to 500,000, the official said. But Zelensky has pushed back on conscripting so many, in part, he said, because Ukraine lacks the money to pay them without significantly raising taxes for ordinary citizens. Such aggressive conscription would also be politically unpopular for the president, though military commanders say the need for it is elementary.
“There really aren’t enough people,” said a major who is commanding a unit in eastern Ukraine. “Even if it’s just defensive actions, there are still constant losses. Someone is sick, someone is discharged due to health conditions or someone is moved to a rear position. So there are fewer and fewer people willing to sit at the actual front line.
“Taking into account that the Russians have been conducting offensive actions for several months, mainly in eastern Ukraine, the need for people is critical,” the major said.

Meanwhile, Budanov, with a background in special forces, has little experience as an army commander. Some military officials have suggested that even if Budanov is tapped to replace Zaluzhny, it would be Syrsky who would actually be commanding from behind the scenes.
Some soldiers and analysts said there was a danger that the next commander will be too deferential to Zelensky. Olena Tregub, a member of the Anti-Corruption Council of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said there was a risk of someone “who wants to say what Zelensky wants to hear.”

Don't Toews Me · Feb 2, 2024

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1753087494063554852

In late 2022 - early 2023, amid Ukrainian artillery shortages, Frontelligence Insight observed a pattern: Russian forces, due to limited Ukrainian counteraction, occupied stationary artillery positions for long periods. Our team now notes the resurgence of this pattern. Thread:
2/ In January, our team recorded 14 concentrations of artillery and enemy forces, echoing Spring 2023 observations. In this example, vehicle revetments were stocked with supplies and vehicles. We have monitored this specific operational site persisting for multiple weeks
3/ Importantly, this doesn't mean a total loss of Ukraine's counter-battery capabilities. Multiple OSINT projects consistently document Russian artillery losses. Nevertheless, the prevailing pattern highlights a present challenge of inadequate counter-battery fire.
4/ This allows Russia to employ a familiar tactic: the complete destruction of urban areas, making them indefensible and asserting a claim of "liberation" afterward. Mar’inka is a good example, where the entire town was obliterated
5/ Based on our observations, numerous artillery pieces are positioned at distances ranging from 15 to 24 kilometers away from the frontline, rendering them beyond the practical reach of many small FPVs—unless equipped with retransmitting drones to boost their signal.
6/ Despite several successful FPV engagements with enemy artillery, these cases are limited and lack the widespread influence needed to significantly impact the overall situation. We anticipate a shift over time, but at this moment the impact is relatively small.
7/ In summary, Ukraine faces increasing challenges countering Russian artillery, providing Russia an opportunity to inflict significant damage and losses. Urgent EU or US measures, such as supplying additional artillery and ammunition, are crucial to mitigate the problem.

Inside Ukraine’s plan to outsmart Russia with army of robots

Oleksandr Kamyshin was asked to develop a hi-tech arms industry capable of overrunning Putin. He tells The Times how unmanned weapons could change the war

www.thetimes.co.uk

For forty days and nights the Russians tried to capture the bunker outside Avdiivka, but each time they were met with a hail of uncannily accurate machinegun fire. The Ukrainians, it seemed, did not flinch or duck for cover, even when a maelstrom of mortar and small-arms fire came their way.
When, by sheer weight of numbers, President Putin’s troops finally overran the position, they discovered why. Their single enemy lay defeated, a tangle of metal and wire. “There was only a machinegun turret with a camera and a night-vision device, not a single one of our soldiers,” Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s minister for strategic industries, told The Times in Kyiv.
“It was a part-remote-controlled, part-autonomous unmanned system, and our guys were only sneaking in and out to conduct repairs or reload with ammunition. The operator was sitting somewhere else,” Kamyshin said.
President Zelensky has given Kamyshin a herculean task — developing a high-tech arms industry that could outsmart Russia’s arsenal. Key to that is the mass production of autonomous weapons, driven by artificial intelligence, to minimise losses unsustainable for a country in a population crisis.
“This year we will see how artificial intelligence becomes part of the game, this year will see autonomous ground systems running,” Kamyshin says.

“Our ambition is to move away from ‘World War Two with drones’ to a war of unmanned systems. At this point we have more than two hundred companies producing things that fly, attack over the water, go on the ground — everything from the cheapest FPVs [first-person-view drones] worth $350 to those things that fly to St Petersburg,” the minister explains.
Ukraine has already said it will produce a million first-person-view “suicide” drones this year, but the weapons can be jammed by electronic warfare and are limited in range by radio horizons and in destructive power by small payloads of up to 3kg.
Unmanned ground vehicles such as the Ratel, which can run 35kg of explosives underneath a tank or into a bunker, or the Ironclad, a remote-controlled armoured gun turret on wheels, are already being built and tested on the battlefield, although not yet at scale. It is only a matter of time before they are installed with software that allows them to make decisions when out of radio range of their operators or their control frequency is jammed.
“It’s already technologically possible to create fully autonomous drones which will take off and go to a given sector of the battlefield, identify targets, choose the highest priority target and execute on that target,” says Yaroslav Azhnyuk, the chief executive of Fourth Law AI, a Ukrainian defence technology company.
“We’re already seeing our enemies use that against us and we are obviously fighting back. So it is being tested, but there is no doubt we will see them proliferate this year.”
Neural networks can help decipher enemy activity, coordinate multiple autonomous vehicle attacks, calculate assault and exfiltration routes, and even learn from their mistakes on the battlefield.
The hardware is already built, Azhnyuk says, and the chips required are available on commercial markets. Ukraine only needs to engineer the software and connect and integrate the components.

themeistersinger · Feb 2, 2024

Putin's War, Week 101. How to Not Fire Your Commanding General and the EU Approves Massive Aid Package

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/02/01/putins-war-week-101-n2169237

Don't Toews Me · Feb 2, 2024

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/02/02/zaluzhny-zelensky-white-house/

The government of Ukraine has informed the White House that President Volodymyr Zelensky has decided to fire his top military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, in what would be the most consequential personnel shake-up of the war, said two people familiar with the discussion.

The departure of Zaluzhny, one of the most popular figures in Ukrainian society, could affect troop morale and shake the confidence of Western donors as Ukraine’s military struggles to fend off advancing Russian forces. The two men have clashed over their divergent strategies for surmounting the battlefield setbacks as the war grinds into its third year.

“The president does not believe that this mass mobilization of men between the ages of 18 to 27 is desirable or warranted at this point,” said a person close to Zelensky.

Finding a replacement for Zaluzhny remains a significant challenge.
One potential candidate is Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov. The 38-year-old has a background in special forces, not as an army commander. His appointment would potentially signal a move toward asymmetric tactics — such as drone strikes deep into Russian territory — in a war where the front lines have been largely static in the last year.
But it is unclear if he wants the position, said a person familiar with the matter. “He loves his job and may want to keep just blowing stuff up in Russia,” said the person.

Another option is Oleksandr Syrsky, the current ground forces commander. The 58-year-old was credited with leading the defense of Kyiv in the first month of the war and then orchestrating a successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region in the fall of 2022.
But among rank-and-file soldiers, Syrsky is especially disliked, considered by many to be a Soviet-style commander who kept forces under fire too long in the eastern city of Bakhmut when Ukraine should have withdrawn.
“He’s a Gen. Patton type character,” said the person close to Zelensky. “He doesn’t have a human resources gene in his body.”

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1753511667986469355

All the evidence says the decision to replace Zaluzhny already been made. But Illia puts his finger on the problem — getting a replacement to agree. It’s poisoned chalice in eyes of Ukrainians now. That, I suspect — and only that — is the reason we haven’t yet had announcement.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1753527735673061750

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat claimed that at least three Russian military aircraft at Belbek airfield were damaged in a strike on January 31, reportedly by Storm Shadow / SCALP missiles.

Czechs want EU to shop abroad for Ukraine shells

The EU’s promise to supply ammunition is falling short, so Prague says it’s time to look beyond the bloc for shells.

www.politico.eu

The EU had originally pledged to supply 1 million shells by March, and France led calls for Europe to build up its homegrown industrial prowess to deliver munitions to Kyiv. However, the EU now says 524,000 shells will reach Ukraine by the March deadline, with 1.1 million only promised by the end of the year.

Frustrated by this shortfall, Prague is pushing EU countries to finance the purchase of what it estimates are 450,000 rounds of artillery available outside the bloc, four diplomats and a person familiar with the talks told POLITICO.

When the EU was calibrating its military aid commitments in early 2023, France — the bloc’s defense industry leader — had been pushing to make sure that subsidies were focused only on local production, rather than being funnelled abroad.

But the Czech call raises the prospect that Europe would turn instead to arms companies in South Korea, Turkey and South Africa. The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell specifically mentioned that Korea — a major weapons producer — could be tapped for extra shells, according to the official.

The EU’s blueprint to boost ammunition supplies includes reimbursing countries with billions of euros through the European Peace Facility for sending shells from existing stockpiles. This would exist along with €1 billion to push joint procurement of ammunition by the European Defence Agency and €500 million to support ammunition production projects.

Now, with Kyiv reeling from the constant attrition of Russia’s assault along a 1,000 kilometer frontline, the country’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov says there’s “shell hunger,” prompting friendly capitals to reconsider their military aid strategy.

One diplomat said the 450,000 figure was pitched during an informal meeting of EU defense ministers in Brussels on Wednesday. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala then told his counterparts during Thursday’s EU leaders’ summit that shells could be obtained from outside the EU to help the bloc meet its promise, according to another official briefed on the talks.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 3, 2024

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1753470321183646021

Ukraine faces two acute issues right now: a lack of ammunition and a lack of infantry. The longer these two issues are not properly addressed, the more Ukraine's disadvantage will grow.

https://twitter.com/vorobyov/status/1753447004942843955

Observations of a Ukrainian military medic on a study trip in the US: American medics are naive when boasting of locating their Role 2 medical facilities as close to the frontline as possible; those facilities would be immediately targeted by russian arty and guided aerial bombs

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1753434559968878865

As I reported a few days ago, Rheinmetall will be building a new 155 mm ammunition factory here in Germany (Unterlüß) at short notice.

According to information from SPIEGEL, Rheinmetall is planning to produce up to 200,000 155 mm shells per year in Unterlüß (Germany) alone starting in 2025. The investment is said to be worth 300 million euros.

According to Rheinmetall CEO Papperger, the goal is to make Germany more independent in the production of artillery ammunition.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius will attend the foundation stone laying ceremony in Unterlüß on the 12th of February.

For example, the new 35 mm Gepard ammunition for Ukraine is already being produced in Unterlüß. In addition to Kassel, Unterlüß is also one of the two locations where the Ukrainian Marder 1A3s are overhauled before they are delivered to Ukraine.

Ukrainian Attack May Have Crushed Production Of Russia’s Deadliest Drone

Following an explosion at the ZOMZ optical plant in August, supplies of Russia's Lancet loitering munition fell off. Was this some well-targeted Ukrainian sabotage?

www.forbes.com

The Lancet has been one of Russia’s most effective weapons in its war with Ukraine, a small kamikaze drone which can find and destroy targets from 40 miles away with deadly precision. Lancets knock out Leopard tanks, artillery and even parked aircraft. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, singled the Lancet out as a problem in his recent paper on the current military situation. Only a few appeared at first, dozens per month, but in July 2023 numbers were set to soar. Instead, something interrupted the supply.
That month Russian news media showed a video of Lancet makers Zala Aero, featuring their flamboyant CEO Aleksandr Zakharov touring a giant new production facility in a converted shopping mall on a Segway. The video showed racks of hundreds of Lancets, and one article suggested that production could increase by a factor of fifty. This looked like bad news for Ukraine. But instead of surging, Lancet strikes dropped off markedly. There was initially no clue as to what had happened.
Information from Molfar, a Ukrainian OSINT group looking at sabotage operations in Russia, suggests that the cause may have been a well-targeted strike by Ukrainian forces.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1753416752099184938

Russia's territory potentially vulnerable to Ukrainian drone strikes has exceeded one million square kilometers.

Zelenskyy says two more air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine: https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1753512485959688585

Don't Toews Me · Feb 4, 2024

‘They told me we’re all Russians’: fears grow over ‘re-education’ of Ukrainian children

Russia, which boasts of taking in 700,000 children, stands accused of trying to erase their Ukrainian identity

www.theguardian.com

During the 14 months for which Veronika Vlasenko attended school in Russia, she was regularly told by teachers and fellow students that she would never be able to go home to Ukraine. “Every day they said to me that I would be staying here for ever and would never leave Russia,” she said. “They told me that Ukraine doesn’t exist, that it never existed, that we’re all Russians … At times the other kids would beat me for being pro-Ukrainian.”

Veronika was one of nearly 20,000 children documented by Ukrainian authorities as having been taken from Ukraine to Russia over the past two years. The authorities believe the real number is probably 10 times that, while Russian officials have even boasted of moving 700,000 Ukrainian children to Russia.

Nearly two years into the war, there are growing fears that if no way is found to bring the children home soon, Russia’s systemic programme to “re-educate” Ukrainian children could prove devastatingly effective. Ukrainian officials are calling on international organisations and neutral countries who may still hold some sway in Moscow to put pressure on Russia.

Of the 19,500 cases for which Ukrainian authorities have names and data, only about 400, including Veronika, have managed to return to Ukraine so far.

“Russia is actively erasing their Ukrainian identity and inflicting unbelievable emotional and psychological damage,” said Latvia’s president, Edgars Rinkēvičs, at a conference devoted to raising awareness of the issue in Riga on Thursday. “What makes it even worse is that Russia proudly exhibits its actions,” he said.

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1753308931831554529

To keep track of the RU Black Sea Fleet or what’s left of it. In terms of total tonnage, Ukraine managed to sink ~20%.

Video of Zelenskyy visiting frontline in Robotyne: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1754178962660417881

Brave move by Zelensky, visiting troops of Ukraine’s 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade at the frontline in Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia region, a particularly tough spot.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 4, 2024

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754107800593002530

Several Ukrainian sources cite the worsening of the situation in Avdiivka today. Russian armed formations managed to enter the town from the northeast and find a foothold in the buildings.

Video: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1754159640122728706

This is what Krynki, where the Ukrainian armed forces hold a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River, looks like.

The village was literally wiped off the face of the earth.

Video: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754153190776336894

Vladyslav Molodyh, a soldier of the 71st separate brigade, survived in a flooded basement for 41 days, surrounded by Russians.

He and his battle buddy repelled numerous attacks without communications, food, or water before being rescued by Ukrainian forces.

Russians attempted to block them in the basement but to no avail. Vladyslav managed to destroy at least six enemies from a small window.

For the last two weeks, he had no food and water left and survived by a miracle. Once pulled out, all he asked for was water and a cigarette.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1754195351735558581

While Ukraine continues the fight with Russia, the likelihood of Russia engaging in a conventional war with NATO or Western allies remains low.

Some strategists suggest that they can indirectly deter direct confrontation with Russia by bogging them down in Ukraine by providing Ukraine just enough to survive.

However, the grim and uncomfortable truth is that shortages in artillery ammo and vehicles are compensated with human lives. The only way to minimize casualties is to provide enough military resources to win.

Unfortunately, if you will look at Ukrainian demographics, the population aged 20-30 is the smallest demographic category in Ukraine, which is a serious problem.

Despite big Russian losses, their larger population and relative indifference to casualties create a different dynamic compared to democracies where societies are more sensitive to human losses.

Russian leadership perceives Ukraine's existence as an existential threat, a conviction reiterated by top officials. This belief makes them resistant to honoring any peace deals or agreements, like it already happened when they occupied Crimea, then Donbas and invaded Ukraine one more time.

While Ukrainians genuinely appreciate the support we get, there are moments when people leave comments and statements like "we sent 15 vehicles, stay strong, it’s a game changer, be grateful”feel akin to offering an aspirin to a cancer patient and expecting lifelong gratitude and kowtowing for decades.

To prevent a war with the EU member or another aspiring country like Moldova, it is paramount to minimize losses in Ukraine and secure its victory, because the reality is that Ukrainians aren’t infinite.

Fewer than 1000 Wagner mercenaries still in Belarus: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1754072757300494539

It is highly likely that fewer than 1,000 Russian Wagner mercenaries remain in Belarus. They have been present in the country since June 2023, at which point there were 8,000 Wagner mercenaries. Wagner almost certainly continues to provide training to Belarusian military and security forces.
It is unlikely that Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko would use the Wagner mercenaries beyond their current remit. They are involved in the training of Ministry of Interior troops but are highly unlikely to participate directly in maintaining domestic or border security in Belarus.
The continued presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus almost certainly also benefits Russia’s war effort by compelling Ukraine to maintain defensive positions and personnel along its northern border with Belarus to protect from potential future incursions.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 4, 2024

Ukraine’s soldiers ‘in deep defense mode’ as uncertainty lingers over commander-in-chief

As the President’s Office remained stum for another day over whether or not Ukraine’s commander-in-chief was out of a job, one of the men tipped possibly to replace him gave a short but clear-eyed assessment of the situation facing soldiers on the front line.

Visiting troops near the town of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, Oleksandr Syrskyi, wrote on his Telegram channel, “The operational situation remains tense. Heavy fighting is taking place along all sectors of the frontline.”

Syrskyi made no reference to reports that President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to announce the dismissal of army chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi over disagreements about what Ukraine should do to win the war following the failure of the counteroffensive.

But Syrskyi did nod to the highly charged issue of troop numbers, and Russia’s advantage in that area, when he wrote, “The enemy continues to conduct high-intensity assault operations and is constantly bringing in new reserves.”
Zelensky’s reluctance to get behind army chief Zaluzhnyi’s request for a mobilization drive of up to half a million people, made last December, is seen as a key reason for the spike in tensions between them.

CNN has reported the president told Zaluzhnyi he was being replaced at a meeting last Monday. A presidential spokesman denied the report but a source familiar with the matter said an announcement was expected within days. As of Sunday morning, the army chief was still in office.

Zaluzhnyi referenced his frustrations in an Opinion piece for CNN last week, referring to, “the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures.”

The region visited by Syrskyi on Saturday has seen Ukrainian forces pushed back in several places over recent weeks, with Russian pressure bearing down in particular on a group of settlements clustered around the village of Tabaivka, which lies along the border of the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.

A General Staff report Saturday evening reported further air strikes as well as artillery and mortar fire launched at more than 15 settlements in the area.

A senior army spokesman with responsibility for the same region drew attention to another Ukrainian deficit opposite Russia, in comments on Ukrainian television – namely, a lack of ammunition.

“The Russians are superior in both equipment and personnel,” Illia Yevlash said, adding: “We need a lot of ammunition to destroy such power and intensity.”
However, Yevlash said Russian soldiers were also experiencing possible ammunition shortages, albeit less severe than Ukraine. Where previously, Russian forces had been firing 60,000 rounds a day along the entire front line, the number currently was about half that, he said.

Yevlash also commented on the situation around the battered city of Bakhmut – which has been at the centre of fighting for over a year.
Russian forces were working hard to break through Ukraine’s defenses, the spokesman said, with the aim of advancing towards Chasiv Yar, a highly militarized town on higher ground a few kilometers west of Bakhmut.

An indication of the toll such relentless fighting has taken came from Oleksandr, a member of a sniper platoon working in the same area of operations.

“We are in deep defense mode and are holding back the enemy. Both our men and those of the enemy are exhausted.”

Further south, Russian attention has been focused for months on the town of Avdiivka, and its massive coke plant, both of which Russia has been attempting to encircle.

The Deep State mapping service, widely used by analysts for its careful reporting of frontline movements, has indicated Russian gains to the north of the town in recent days, though a spokesman for the 47th brigade, which is fighting to defend the town, was more upbeat.

Dmytro Lazutkin said his brigade was inflicting heavy losses on Russia, which had still been unable to break through and cut off Ukrainian logistics supplies to the town.

Hackers intercept messages suggesting Russian military-industrial complex suffers effects of the war against Ukraine

People involved in the Russian military-industrial complex are complaining about suffering losses. Source: Ukraine's National Resistance Center, with reference to Cyber Resistance activists who obtained the evidence Details: Dmitry Fadeev, CEO of the Murom Machine-Building Plant, wrote in an...

news.yahoo.com

People involved in the Russian military-industrial complex are complaining about suffering losses.

Source: Ukraine’s National Resistance Center, with reference to Cyber Resistance activists who obtained the evidence

Details: Dmitry Fadeev, CEO of the Murom Machine-Building Plant, wrote in an email intercepted by the activists that inflation and the shortcomings of Russia's bureaucratic approach prevent plants that form the country’s military-industrial complex from fulfilling government orders.

As chairman of the Vladimir Oblast Defence Companies League, Fadeev complained that plants are forced to sell their goods at prices set in 2019 but are at the same time expected to purchase details at market prices and in advance.

Fadeev said that the money received from the government was not enough to cover the interest on the credit that his firm would need to take out to pay its suppliers. Moreover, this money is tied up until the completion of the government contracts, which normally last 3-5 years – meaning during this time the money is effectively "frozen".

The Murom Machine-Building Plant lost 70 million roubles (approximately US$770,000) in the production of the "device 1T146" navigation systems alone and is now struggling to keep up with the ever-growing state demand for its devices.

Fadeev also complained in the intercepted email that there is a shortage of staff at the plants due to both mass mobilisation and a lack of accommodation in the area. Building barracks in the area has not helped solve the issue.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1753899312151474345

Russians are majorly worried about FPV drones. Almost every influencer expressed their opinion about this issue recently. Contrary to how Russia handles the production of drones where one company took over most of the business, in Ukraine they spread production across many small enterprises.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 4, 2024

Avdiivka worsening: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1754272865510146382

After gaining a foothold in the south two weeks ago, Russian forces have advanced and entered Avdiivka from the north over the past few days. Butusov and Tsaplienko both say the situation is critical.
Butusov mentions the lack of ammunition and fresh reserves/infantry to rotate with the 110th Mechanized Brigade as key problems.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1754271408929050855

Asked about whether he intends to fire Ukrainian armed forces chief Gen. Zaluzhny, Zelensky tells Italian TV that he is considering the move as part of a planned major shakeup of top military and civilian officials. “We must all push in the same direction and believe in victory.”

https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1754191652053221496

Danish defense Intel in new threat assessment finds it “very likely” that Russia will use actual military means to challenge NATO. Previous assessment was it would only use hybrid capabilities. https://berlingske.dk/politik/ny-fe-trusselsvurdering-rusland-har-intention-om-at-bruge-militaere

The Ukraine war has changed, so Zelensky must reinvent himself

There are fears the president is a better leader than politician, and now he has a potential rival in the ‘Iron General’. Mark Galeotti explains why the challenges in 2024 are so different from two years ago

www.thetimes.co.uk

This crisis reflects the wider political challenges facing Zelensky and his administration as a result of the changing nature of the war. In some ways, the better Ukraine’s situation is, the tougher things are for him personally.
This is a terrible and bloody war, but no longer a struggle for the very survival of Ukraine. There is no longer a real fear that the Russians will take Kyiv. Even in worst-case scenarios, such as if the United States withdraws support because of a change in presidents, Ukrainian defence planners consider the furthest limits of Russian territorial advance to be the Dnipro River that cuts through the middle of the country. Even that, in the words of one, would “leave Moscow overstretched and facing a long-term partisan war”.
The plan is to use 2024 as a year in which to build up Ukraine’s forces before a renewed major counteroffensive in 2025. This brings its own political cost. In the words of a European defence attaché in Kyiv, Ukrainians must ride out at least a year of Russian attack before “they have the serious prospect of potential battlefield gains”.

Nonetheless, Ukrainians are clearly still committed both to their struggle against Russia and to their president. In a recent poll, 77 per cent of respondents described themselves as optimistic about the country’s future.
As for Zelensky, he successfully refashioned himself in 2022 and could do so again. A British diplomat who served in Kyiv suggests this is likely to happen this spring, as “he is realistic enough to appreciate that what worked before isn’t necessarily what’s needed now … In some ways, the decision to sack Zaluzhny was part of a clearing of the decks, not only to bring in new faces but also to create a new political strategy”. The actor may yet write a new script.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 5, 2024

https://twitter.com/DefensieMin/status/1754506197703524542

The Netherlands Ministry of Defence is readying 6 additional F-16 fighter aircraft for delivery to Ukraine. This brings the total number to 24 F-16s. 's aerial superiority is essential for countering Russian aggression.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1754507291401805827

Russian attacks on cities, settlements increased by 25 percent last week.

Russian forces launched more than 1,500 attacks against Ukraine last week, which is almost a 25% increase compared to previous weeks, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledges to shake up Ukraine’s leadership

President says upcoming reshuffle will target more than just the army’s top brass

www.ft.com

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is considering a sweeping “reset” of Ukraine’s military and civilian leadership in an attempt to reinvigorate its war effort nearly two years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The Ukrainian president on Sunday evening confirmed reporting by the Financial Times last week and suggested that he was not only seeking to replace General Valery Zaluzhny, the popular commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, but also top government officials.
“Definitely a reset, a new beginning is necessary,” Zelenskyy told Italy’s Rai News. “I have something serious in mind, which is not about a single person but about the direction of the country’s leadership,” he said when asked whether he would dismiss Zaluzhny. He did not specify who else he would replace.
Zaluzhny has not commented on the report of his ousting and Zelenskyy’s latest remarks. But he has posted two selfie photos to his Facebook page with his chief of staff. “We still have a very difficult path ahead, but we can be sure that we will never feel shame,” Zaluzhny wrote alongside the photo he posted on Monday.

Ukraine’s western partners are nervous about the looming shake-up, according to two western officials from G7 nations whose governments provide arms to Ukraine. One said they were apprehensive because of Zaluzhny’s popularity among Ukraine’s rank-and-file soldiers as well as the general population, which could lead to a backlash when unity is crucial.
It remains unclear who would replace Zaluzhny, but the four people with knowledge of the matter told the FT that leading candidates were Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, and Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the country’s military intelligence directorate, the GUR.
Syrsky, 58, an experienced commander, is seen as a close ally of Zelenskyy who has brought him along on several frontline visits and photo opportunities with the troops. However, Syrsky is widely disliked among Ukraine’s rank-and-file soldiers, who say that he has made decisions that unnecessarily caused the loss of previous weapons and ammunition, as well as lives.
Budanov, 38, does not have the experience of Zaluzhny and Syrsky as an army commander, but has been effective in his role of leading the GUR and revitalising the agency, which long played second fiddle to Ukraine’s much larger domestic security service, the SBU.
However, Budanov’s famously brazen tactics have put Kyiv’s western partners on edge. “He makes us nervous,” one of the western officials said.

But two people close to Syrsky and Budanov told the FT last week that they were uninterested in the post, preferring to remain in their current roles.

https://twitter.com/annanemtsova/status/1754553513856631134

Ukraine’s social polls: 72 per cent of Ukrainians don’t want President Zelensky to dismiss the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Gen.Zaluzhny.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1754496923271110706

The mayor of Kyiv is speaking out in defense of General Zaluzhny, warning that (Zelensky's) political intrigues jeopardize "common sense" and "the state's interests." He credits Zaluzhny with building the public's confidence in Ukraine's armed forces.

Long read here from Mick Ryan:

Russia’s Adaptation Advantage

Early in the war, Moscow struggled to shift gears—but now it’s outlearning Kyiv.

www.foreignaffairs.com

But after two years of war, the adaptation battle has changed. The quality gap between Ukraine and Russia has closed. Ukraine still has an innovative and bottom-up military culture, which allows it to quickly introduce new battlefield technologies and tactics. But it can struggle to make sure that those lessons are systematized and spread throughout the entire armed forces. Russia, on the other hand, is slower to learn from the bottom up because of a reluctance to report failure and a more centralized command philosophy. Yet when Russia does finally learn something, it is able to systematize it across the military and through its large defense industry.
These differences are reflected in the ways the two states innovate. Ukraine is better at tactical adaptation: learning and improving on the battlefield. Russia is superior at strategic adaptation, or learning and adaptation that affects national and military policymaking, such as how states use their resources. Both forms of adaptation are important. But it is the latter type that is most crucial to winning wars.
The longer this war lasts, the better Russia will get at learning, adapting, and building a more effective, modern fighting force. Slowly but surely, Moscow will absorb new ideas from the battlefield and rearrange its tactics accordingly. Its strategic adaptation already helped it fend off Ukraine’s counteroffensive, and over the last few months it has helped Russian troops take more territory from Kyiv. Ultimately, if Russia’s edge in strategic adaptation persists without an appropriate Western response, the worst that can happen in this war is not stalemate. It is a Ukrainian defeat.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 6, 2024

Thread on Krynky here with some video: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1754574105284600308

Krynky. Kherson oblast. Left bank of Dnipro river. Thread part II

I’ve planned to post this thread in the end of month but just found out that we have lost 8/12 of our drones with the antennas that were bought with your help.
Our bomber drones are very important at right now

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/02/zaluzhny-zelensky-ukraine-general-dismissal/

Military personnel in the field have complained of exhaustion after nearly two years of fighting without adequate rotation of fresh forces. An infantry platoon commander fighting in the eastern city of Avdiivka, where Russian forces have stepped up their attacks in recent months, said ideally he would be rotated out after three days of withstanding assaults at the forward-most position. But often that does not happen.
“Sometimes it takes 10 days,” the platoon commander said.

US ramping up artillery production: https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1754598570852778211

155mm ammo update

Doug Bush, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology confirms that the United States is still on track for 70,000-80,000 155mm shells per month by the end of 2024/start of 2025. This is the max rate, pending appropriation of $3.1 billion in additional funding, which is needed to hit 100,000/month by the end of 2025.

Graph: https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1754603066236559491

BREAKING: Assistant Secretary Bush has blessed us with a graph of projected US 155mm ammunition production. This confirms that they will hit ~36,000/month by the end of Q1. Looks like it will be closer to 70,000/m by year end.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1754409046289908054

Finnish plant to hike ammunition production fivefold due to Russia's war in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1754433467092275699

It is unlikely that Russia’s planned revenue target for 2024 will be met as laid out in the budget plan. It is likely the government will need to consider other policy measures to fund its planned expenditure.

The Russian government has ambitious plans to increase expenditure by 26 per cent in 2024. This is reliant on optimistic expectations of revenues rising by 22 per cent, with oil and gas revenues expected to increase by almost 25 per cent. It is likely that the government will need to reduce its contributions to the National Wealth Fund and increase domestic taxes and debt to fund its planned expenditure.

These policies will almost certainly have adverse effects on the economy in the medium to long term by maintaining inflationary pressures or constraining future economic growth.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754417310075400298

HIMARS strike on hospitality venue "Adriatika" in occupied Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast on 3 February "destroyed dozens of "LPR" officials, including emergency services Minister Aleksey Potelshenko, public prosecutors, policemen, local deputies and defectors".

According to Russian sources, the strike was adjusted by someone present at the venue or nearby, knowing the positions of the attendees.

The information about the strike emerged on Russian news channels with the context that it was a random civilian bakery that was attacked. Official news present this as a strike against civilians, however, leaks from smaller Russian channels reveal that it was a congregation of big local names that was targeted. A birthday party was being held there. However, it is claimed that some civilians, perhaps relatives of the officials, were also casualties of this strike.

There are names of the targets floating about but these are not confirmed. Ukraine did not take responsibility for this strike. Claims that HIMARS missiles were used come from the Russian side.

Video: https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1754494772834635890

An excerpt from the interview with subtitles where Zelensky confirms his intentions to dismiss Zaluzhny and "reset the whole system".

My impression is that Zelensky and Zaluzhny hold distinctly contrasting views on the current state of the war and the strategic approach to it.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 6, 2024

Ukraine Says It’s Getting Long-Range Strike Missiles With Its F-16s

A top Ukrainian defense official says the country is awaiting strike weapons with a range of 300-500 kilometers for its future F-16s.

www.twz.com

An undisclosed type of air-launched cruise missile with a range of up to 300 miles will be among the munitions delivered to Ukraine alongside its long-awaited F-16 fighters, according to Lt. Gen. Serhii Naev, the commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In a statement reported by the Ukrainian RBC news outlet, Naev said that the deliveries of F-16s were expected to be accompanied by air-to-ground missiles to arm them, with a range of “300-500 kilometers” — 186 to 310 miles. Naev added that the weapons were expected to arrive in “further military aid packages,” but provided no more details.
Back in the summer of last year, when the idea of Ukraine getting F-16s finally became a more concrete reality, we looked at the extensive ‘menu’ of possible air-to-ground and air-to-air munitions to arm these aircraft.

What is especially notable about Naev’s claim, however, is the stated range of 186 to 310 miles — a significant distance. Exactly what missile he is referring to isn’t clear, but among the likely candidates that fits that description is the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile or JASSM.

Another long-range weapon integrated on the F-16, but less well known, is the AGM-84H Standoff Land Attack Missile–Expanded Response, better known as SLAM-ER, introduced on Turkish Vipers.

In the past, The War Zone argued that the SLAM-ER could be the most likely U.S.-supplied air-launched cruise missile for the Ukrainian F-16, also bearing in mind its availability in the U.S. Navy inventory and its lower degree of technological sensitivity compared to JASSM. The missile has a range of about 170 miles.

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1754519090239029486

EXCLUSIVE: Ukrainian Special Forces Interrogate #Wagner Mercenaries in Sudan

Exclusive video obtained by Kyiv Post shows Ukrainian special forces interrogating captured Russian mercenaries from the Wagner PMC in the Republic of #Sudan.

EXCLUSIVE: Ukrainian Special Forces Interrogate Wagner Mercenaries in Sudan

Exclusive video obtained by Kyiv Post shows Ukrainian special forces interrogating captured Russian mercenaries from the Wagner “Private Military Company” (PMC) in the Republic of Sudan.

kyivpost.com

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1754562208313364720

1/4 Russia and China held a meeting last week to compare notes on their military AI development and applications. They discussed doctrinal guidelines and this meeting "reaffirmed the similarity of the Russian and Chinese approaches." What are such similarities?
2/4 Both Russia and China consider AI as key to "intellectualized" warfare, with AI taking a greater role in weapons development and application. At the same time, both consider a human role as pivotal and not replaceable any time soon. Both work on AI as a key tool for...
3/4 ...decision-making and information analysis to analyze vast quantities of unstructured data. Both consider AI as pivotal to the development and fielding of autonomous and robotic systems, and for cyber ops and information warfare.

What is VALK-1? "Powerful" Ukrainian drone fighting Russia in Donetsk

The drones, touted as "all-weather," may be able to operate "in the very difficult" Ukrainian weather conditions, expert Samuel Bendett told Newsweek.

www.newsweek.com

Ukrainian forces along the front line in the fiercely contested Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine are now using "all-weather" drones, according to a local official, in the latest development of the constantly-evolving drone war.

Four sets of drones capable of "working in the toughest weather conditions" were handed over to Ukrainian operators in the Donetsk region on Saturday, Vadym Filashkin, the Ukrainian head of the region's military administration in eastern Ukraine, said in a statement posted to social media over the weekend.

"VALK-1 drone is a powerful Ukrainian development," Filashkin said. "Whether it's frost, snow with rain or fog, these drones always clearly see the enemy on the battlefield," Filashkin said.

The drones are described as "all-weather," something which is a "key development," according to Samuel Bendett of the U.S. think tank the Center for Naval Analyses.

They can "now operate in the very difficult and unpredictable winter conditions," he told Newsweek.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 6, 2024

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1754653046674481586

In today's update, @Deepstate_UA says the situation in Avdiivka continues to deteriorate.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1754672295296045359

Butusov says that Russia dropped more than 600 aerial bombs on Avdiivka over the past 4 weeks.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-troops-near-bakhmut-expect-fight-until-war-ends-2024-02-05/

Some soldiers in the east of Ukraine say they will have little choice but to fight until the war is over, despite attempts by the government in Kyiv to mobilise more troops to replace those serving long stints at the front.
Draft legislation aimed at replenishing Ukraine's depleted and exhausted armed forces is stalled in parliament, but one of the proposed changes is to ensure soldiers who have fought for three years can be discharged.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said that the military proposed mobilising 450-500,000 more Ukrainians for the war.
The families of some service members on long rotations have urged Zelenskiy to find ways of relieving them, but members of a drone unit fighting near the ruined city of Bakhmut believe such hopes are unrealistic.
"Thirty six months is a huge chunk of life but what can you do? You must fight the enemy," said a 51-year-old drone pilot, whose call sign is "Mac", speaking at night in a bunker position, as machine gun fire crackled nearby.
"I personally cannot imagine demobilising and living a civilian life while the war is still going on," added the soldier from the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade's drone battalion. "I will stay until we win."
The battalion's commander, Yurii Fedorenko, said more troops were needed to allow assault troops in particular to pull back to positions further from the front to recuperate and be replaced by fresh units.
But he, too, cast doubt on the idea of being discharged after three years.
"Let's not cheat each other, this is not going to happen," he told Reuters at his command post in a separate location.
"If we let these people, experienced officers, sergeants, soldiers, people capable of performing combat tasks ... if we let them go, there will be no one left to fight."

https://www.wsj.com/world/low-on-ammo-ukraine-tries-to-build-a-million-explosive-drones-57f8fb52

The Wall Street Journal visited one of Sparrow’s three facilities, which collectively make about 3,000 FPV drones a month. Havryluk and his partner invested roughly $500,000 to get the company off the ground, with the goal of eventually producing 10,000 drones a month.
Late last year, the company moved into an empty building in western Ukraine, installed some ventilation tubes, and turned it into an FPV factory.
The company purchases some parts—like carbon fiber, cameras and engines—but manufactures most parts and designs the drones in-house.
In one room, a 20-year-old engineer looked at models of the drones on screens, tweaking his design. Behind him, several 3-D printers cranked plastic parts.

“The biggest issue is getting parts from China, and the logistics of getting them here,” Havryluk said, noting that protests by truckers in Poland had slowed the flow of commercial goods into Ukraine in recent months. He said the company is spending roughly $14,000 on parts a month: “It sounds like a big sum, but for the army, it’s a small expense.”

Of the 11 models that Sparrow makes, its 7-inch drone (measured by the size of propellers it can use) is the most popular. Though it doesn’t fly as far and can only carry about 3 pounds of explosives, it is more maneuverable and, crucially, cheaper, said Andriy Vuhovskiy, head of Sparrow’s FPV department.
“While we’re defending and the Russians are assaulting, [soldiers] don’t need such a long range,” Vuhovskiy said.
Still, Ukraine is developing drones with longer and longer ranges, which its forces have used to strike oil refineries inside Russia this year.
Sparrow has developed a larger strike drone that can carry about 20 pounds of explosives. The company is also working on models that use artificial intelligence to hit the target, even if Russian electronic jammers cut off contact with the pilot.
“For now, the skills of the pilot are important,” Vuhovskiy said. “In the future, you won’t need as much skill.”

Don't Toews Me · Feb 6, 2024

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1754929549232455988

Avdiivka is under critical pressure. RFAF is increasing other attacks, and some UAF ammo runs low. The battlefield situation will worsen in months ahead on this path, unless assistance is approved ASAP. I do not want the troubling scenarios in my mind’s eye to become reality.

Official: Situation in Avdiivka becomes 'critical in some places'

The situation around Avdiivka, a front-line town in Donetsk Oblast, is deteriorating, becoming critical in some areas, said Vitalii Barabash, the head of the city's military administration, on Feb. 6.

kyivindependent.com

The situation around Avdiivka, a besieged front-line town in Donetsk Oblast, is becoming "very difficult," even critical in some areas, said Vitalii Barabash, the head of the city's military administration, on Feb. 6.

Russia intensified its attacks against Avdiivka in October 2023, reportedly suffering heavy losses in an attempt to encircle the city mere kilometers from occupied Donetsk. In spite of the casualties, reports began emerging recently that Russian forces are making steady advances.

"The situation is very difficult, very tense. We could say that a few weeks ago, the situation was difficult but (still) under control," Barabash said on air.

The official added that this does not mean "that everything is lost" but stressed that Russia continues throwing large forces against Avdiivka.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1754779723874324647

Butusov released an update on Avdiivka, says 110th Mechanized Brigade sent everybody who can hold a weapon to the city, including engineers. Their survival is low, because they have no proper training. There is a lack of everything, and rely on volunteers.

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1754904855305458105

Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield are running low on certain types of ammunition, White House spokesman John Kirby says.

Russia is localizing Shahed-236 production

A group of hackers hacked into the mail servers of the Iranian company IRGC Sahara Thunder, which contained an array of documents on the localization of Shahed-236 drones and the intention to produce “107” drones in Russia

mil.in.ua

A group of hackers hacked into the mail servers of the Iranian company IRGC Sahara Thunder, which contained an array of documents on the localization of Shahed-236 drones and the intention to produce “107” drones in Russia.

The data was published online.

On February 4, 2024, a group of PRANA Network hackers announced the seizure of a number of documents on cooperation with Russia from the servers of a shell company of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps called Sahara Thunder.

The documents, in particular, referred to the localization of the Iranian Shahed-236 family of drones at Russian facilities in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, Russia.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1754869612657655936

Internal Iranian and Russian documents with interesting information regarding cooperation between the two countries in the production of UAVs have been leaked online.

The published documents contain data on:

- Shahed-238 (M237) kamikaze jet UAV with satellite guidance.
- The same Shahed-238, but with a thermal imaging optical-electronic guidance station (MC 236);
- Reconnaissance and kamikaze UAVs Shahed-107B and Shahed-107C;
- Kamikaze UAV Shahed-101P.

In addition, the leaked data contains information about the places and methods of production of UAVs, concluded contracts, channels of their supply to Russia, transportation methods, etc. which is a colossal gap in information security.

The documents do not directly mention the type of product being manufactured. Instead, UAVs are listed in documents under a special code as "Dolphin 632 type motor boat."

According to the papers, by 2022, Russia intended to produce 6,000 Iranian UAVs under license at its facilities for 2.5 years.

The total price of the production contract, including the transfer of technologies, equipment, 6,000 sets of UAVs, software, is 108.5 billion rubles ($1.75 billion).

https://twitter.com/IranWonk/status/1754864161744458034

There are images circulating on #Iranian and #Russian Telegram channels purporting to show leaked images of Russian-language brochures for new export models of the Shahed-136 and the Shahed-238 unmanned aerial vehicles with some interesting functionalities. 1/
The first is the MC-236 UAV which appears to be comparable to the Shahed-136 UAV save for the addition of an electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) sensor on the nose cone that could take the system towards a true loitering attack munition (LAM) functionality. 2/
This means rather than just acting a one-way attack UAV/slow-motion CM, a MC-236 UAV operator can detect and pick targets.

The image below shows a M-236 UAV, w/ a range of 150 km, acting as a relay to deliver the MC-236 to a target (HIMARS) 220 km away from control station. 3/
The second system is called the M-237 UAV and appears to be a version of #Iran's new Shahed-238 turbojet UAV which has a range of functionalities. 4/
In the Russian-language promotional material the turbojet-powered M-237 UAV is shown to be able to reach and destroy other UAV in the air. 5/
It looks like it can also be used to engage air defenses (looks like a Patriot system in the image?), to get them to expend their more expensive missiles, likely depleting them for follow-on strikes directly on the system. 6/6

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1754914608538591596

Iran has made $1.8 billion in gold from Russia by selling them thousands of Shahed drones over the last year according to hacked and dumped documents from Sahara Thunder IRGC front company

titusbramble · Feb 6, 2024

Meanwhile, Tucker interviewing Putin might actually provide some balance in reporting

themeistersinger · Feb 6, 2024

Code Red: How Russia Conquers the Baltics

What would Russia’s war on the Baltic states and NATO look like? This is how the Kremlin’s generals might do it.

cepa.org

Don't Toews Me · Feb 6, 2024

Thread: https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1754872577648972147

@KofmanMichael and I have a new piece out in @SurvivalEditors

In it we argue that the operative factor in this war is attrition, inflicted primarily through artillery/strike drones, & consequently needs to be included in any theory of success.
While Western countries should continue to help Ukrainian forces improve their overall quality & their ability to scale up combined-arms operations, prevailing conditions in Ukraine still favor attritional & positional approaches rather than those suitable for maneuver warfare.
The operative factor is attrition, inflicted primarily through artillery and strike drones. The West is therefore best served by focusing on resourcing Ukraine’s fires-centered approach & helping Ukraine scale offensive operations to exploit a fires advantage when it is attained.
This may be impossible to achieve via quantity, but it can be done through a combination of means which altogether add up to meaningful superiority in support of an offensive.
These two factors should drive investment in drones to offset shortages of artillery ammunition, cheaper precision-strike capabilities, and electronic warfare to help restore mobility to the front line and reduce current Russian advantages in drone systems.
Ukraine’s military leadership appears keen to embrace technological innovation and tactical adaptation, and to rebuild the force’s combat potential.
These objectives will take time to achieve, but it is clear that Ukraine’s military recognises the scale of the challenge and the need to move out as soon as possible in 2024.
This will be a long war requiring a long-term outlook in strategy, but also timely decision-making. Despite the high stakes, it has become less clear that Washington and European capitals can muster the political will to see Ukraine through this war.
The fact remains that Ukraine and the West enjoy the overall advantage in resources, and attrition can prove an important part of their theory of victory.

While Western Europeans smell smoke, we see fire – interview with Estonian general

General Martin Herem, commander of the Estonian Armed Forces, tells LRT TV how Estonia is preparing for possible aggress...

www.lrt.lt

Committee vice chairman, former military officer Leo Kunnas suggested the idea of mining Estonia’s border with Russia. What do you make of this proposal?

I don’t think it’s very wise to put landmines today at the border, whether they are anti-personnel or anti-tank mines. I don’t think it’s efficient.

Estonia could, however, together with Finland block Russia’s access to the Baltic Sea from Saint Petersburg. Have such plans been considered?

Yes, absolutely, because that would be one of the strategic dilemmas for Russia. If they consider any aggression against Estonia, they must think about how they will keep the communication with Kaliningrad, for example.

And, in my opinion, we have all rights to defend our country, even by closing the sea traffic, in case of aggression, through the Finnish Gulf. Estonia and Finland both have the necessary tools for that.

European leaders have been talking more about preparing for a war with Russia. As a military man, do you see any action – in military industries, army upgrades – that would indicate they’re putting their money where their mouth is?

There are some steps. They are not as fast as we in the Baltic states would like to see, but we also must understand that for us, the wildfire is on the other side of our fence. For Western Europeans, they may feel the smoke or hear about this wildfire through us.

So it is understandable that they are slower, but there are some steps. The rhetoric has changed. We see that the European industry is growing and ready to produce more.

What I have not seen, and I may not be correct, but I have not seen these countries putting money in the military market. I have not seen an increase of contracts to buy more ammunition, other equipment.

I think it still has been very slow, especially when we bear in mind that we have had two years of very intensive warfare in Europe.

Video: https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1754897233244192837

Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles fly past Russian S-300/S-400 air defense system launchers without hindrance, hitting the command post at the Belbek Airbase in seconds.

Video: https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1754902100553691364

Ukrainian heavy drone of the "BaBa Yaga" type. TM-62 anti-tank mines are used for dropping

Video: https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1754925552610218284

Robot wars!

#Ukrainian ground drone (UGV) recovering a #Russian Orlan uncrewed air vehicle (UAV).
Finders-keepers

Chadstroma · Feb 7, 2024

I am remembering back to seeing all this stuff about how the Bradley IFV was a horrible waste of equipment while watching a video of one light up a Russian T-90 and win.... not with it's TOW but with it's cannon.

:lmao:

Don't Toews Me · Feb 7, 2024

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1755106298218115178

Explosions in Kyiv this morning, an hour into an air raid alert across the country and again moments ago. Ukrainian air defense is working on incoming Russian missiles targeting the capital while authorities urge residents to take shelter.

Russian air attack on Kyiv is ongoing. Another series of blasts moments ago. Mayor Klitschko says: “As a result of an enemy attack, two high-voltage lines in the capital were damaged by rocket fragments. Some consumers on the left bank are currently without electricity.”

https://twitter.com/SabFis3/status/1755135875187400740

We spent 3h in the bomb shelter this morning. People in #Kyiv keep telling us: „some in the West now prefer to believe that Russia‘s war is now a localized conflict in the East and south of #Ukraine“. This is very wrong. If you want proof, take a look at this map.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1755112316821975476

Russian missile barrages all over Ukraine today as the country runs out of air defenses. Some 20 residential buildings damaged in Mykolaiv.

https://twitter.com/sarahrainsford/status/1755222097650155885

4 people were killed here in Kyiv - after the biggest air attack on Ukraine in 2 weeks

So many homes ruined, too

Many distraught people who have lost everything

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1755183763963740505

A more reliable of Russian milblogger channels, Two Majors, claims that the Russians have approached Sapronova St in Avdiivka and the next street southwest. If true, this puts them just a few hundred metres away from cutting off the main supply route for the Ukrainian garrison.

'The Situation Is Critical': What The Looming Fall Of Avdiyivka Says About Ukraine's Battlefield Mood

Along the 1,200-kilometer-long front line, Ukraine’s wintry discontent is turning into despondency as Russia forces close in on the capture of Avdiyivka, U.S. political infighting stalls a $60 billion weapons package, and Ukrainians brace for the expected ouster of country’s top military commander.

www.rferl.org

In a wooded southeast corner of Avdiyivka, the industrial Donbas city where Ukrainian troops have been desperately holding out against Russian assaults, there’s a facility called Tsar’s Hunt, once frequented by tourists relaxing in its restaurant, a low-slung hotel, gardens, and outdoor pool.

It has served as a heavily fortified base for Ukrainian forces -- the 53rd Motorized Brigade and 110th Mechanized Brigade, among others, have cycled in and out -- one element of the defenses for the now devastated city, which Russian forces have been trying to encircle since October.

Early last month, Russian sappers and other troops began creeping hundreds of meters underground from the south, moving beneath the facility’s grounds through a partially flooded water outflow tunnel, cutting through metal piping, trying to shroud the noise behind aboveground mortar explosions. Sometime around January 17, an unknown number of Russian troops – 150 by some estimates -- emerged behind Ukrainian lines, sparking a vicious days-long effort by Ukrainian troops to push back the attack.

The surprise, detailed by Russian war bloggers and corroborated by Ukrainian sources, was partially repelled. But in recent days, the reports have gotten more dire, with Russian troops inside the city itself, battling Ukrainian forces block-by-block.

Barring a major tactical blunder by Russia or Ukraine drawing on stretched reserves to reinforce it, Avdiyivka is likely to be captured within weeks, if not days, observers say.

“The situation is difficult, terrible and in all likelihood, it’s possible that by the end of the month, Avdiyivka will have to be abandoned,” Ivan Stupak, an analyst with the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, a Kyiv think tank, told Current Time. “This is understandable even for people who aren’t involved in war fighting.”

Ukrainians “in general are resigned. I mean [everyone] understand the risks if there is no funding out of the U.S. but do what they can,”, said Mykola Byelyeskov, an analyst at the government-backed National Institute for Strategic Studies: like trying to increase drone production, for example.
“The major open question is ‘what’s next in the second part of the year’ or whether we’ll be able to withstand the next round of a Russian offensive without major U.S. assistance,” he said.

As for Avdiyivka, “if Russia is able to inflict major damage as we try to resupply the town garrison then it’s better to withdraw,” Byelyeskov said. “If not, then it’s better to fight.”

https://twitter.com/TUmarov/status/1755147733122302305

Friendship with no limits...

The Chinese Chouzhou Commercial Bank suspended transactions with Russia both via the Russian equivalent of SWIFT (SPFS) and the Chinese CIPS.

This was the main financial tool for Russian importers working with China.

https://vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2024/02/07/1018866-glavnii-dlya-rossiiskih-importerov-bank-kitaya-ostanovil-vse-rascheti-s-rf

Don't Toews Me · Feb 7, 2024

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1755380488204652809

.@Deepstate_UA's daily assessment of the situation in Avdiivka. Russian forces have made further gains in the city, and they mention issues with the fortifications in the city.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1755296525704454580

Serhii Bolvinov, Chief Police Investigator of Kharkiv Oblast, said two of the five missiles Russia launched at Kharkiv today were North Korean Hwasong-11Ga (KN-23) ballistic missiles.

Wow (video): https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755197289029648640

19-year-old Oleksandr, commander of M2 Bradley, faced his father who served in the occupier army's tank during the early days of the counter-offensive.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754917672704188718

Interesting. Now unmanned systems are a separate type of military force in Ukraine, as per Zelensky's decree.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1755149337196113927

First, Russia destroyed Mariupol and slaughtered 25,000+ people.

Then the Kremlin earmarked huge sums to rebuild it – covering up its own atrocities.

Now an FT investigation shows how Russian businessmen are making bank while locals still live in squalor

Video of a large explosion: https://twitter.com/Er_Woods/status/1755292338987954240

Looks like a very large fire or explosion at one of Russia’s key missile enterprises.

Chart: https://twitter.com/amenka/status/1755282345249194363

Russia’s GDP growth - 3,6% in 2023. It looks impressive, but 2,4 pp go to inventory.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/turkeys-drone-maker-baykar-begins-build-plant-ukraine-2024-02-06/

Turkish defence company Baykar has started building a factory near Kyiv that will employ around 500 people and where it will manufacture either its TB2 or TB3 drone models, the company's chief executive told Reuters.

Russia may be trying to build 10,000 attack drones a year for use in Ukraine

A purported cache of stolen Iranian documents also suggests Moscow is paying a lot more than expected.

www.defenseone.com

Plans for massive domestic production of the 200-kg, 2,500-km Iranian-designed suicide drones—and the high price Moscow is paying for them—are just two of the purported revelations of files that an Iranian hacking group says it stole from a company controlled by Tehran’s leading paramilitary arm.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet in the "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine - Foreign Policy Research Institute

There is no end in sight for the fighting in Ukraine, but some lessons can be already drawn out about the naval side of the conflict. Although the “special

www.fpri.org

Key Findings

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet’s supremacy on the Black Sea naval theater was contested in the early stage of the conflict. Ukraine’s anti-surface and drone capacities have challenged the Black Sea Fleet’s supremacy at sea, creating a form of sea denial.

The Black Sea Fleet adapted its posture to a conflict of attrition. The scope of the missions fulfilled by the Black Sea Fleet has increased over time to include more protection and detection tasks, while active defense remains the general posture at sea.

The post-conflict Black Sea Fleet should be more littoralized than before the “special operation.” Lessons already learned from conflict, constraints created by the sanctions, and financial priorities should accelerate the littoralization and the kalibrization of the Black Sea Fleet.

Jaysus · Feb 8, 2024

Don't Toews Me said:
Wow (video): https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755197289029648640

19-year-old Oleksandr, commander of M2 Bradley, faced his father who served in the occupier army's tank during the early days of the counter-offensive.

Click to expand...

Is it common for Ukrainian troops to have American flag patches on their uniforms?

Don't Toews Me · Feb 8, 2024

Jaysus said:
Don't Toews Me said:

Wow (video): https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755197289029648640

19-year-old Oleksandr, commander of M2 Bradley, faced his father who served in the occupier army's tank during the early days of the counter-offensive.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Is it common for Ukrainian troops to have American flag patches on their uniforms?

I've seen it before. Not sure how precisely common it is though. Could be a sign of thanks for American support. That guy is likely too young at 19, but after the attack on Crimea in 2014, US did train Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine as noted here and here. For some, could have connections from then.

Zaluzhnyi is out: https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1755622695478128947

I met with General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
I thanked him for the two years of defending Ukraine.
We discussed the renewal that the Armed Forces of Ukraine require.
We also discussed who could be part of the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The time for such a renewal is now.
I proposed to General Zaluzhnyi to remain part of the team.
We will definitely win!
Glory to Ukraine!

Syrsky is the new CiC: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1755632730656608352

Breaking: Zelensky appoints Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, replacing Valery Zaluzhny.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1755633507655729491

Oleksandr Syrsky new c-i-c. A “hyperactive pedant”, with a mastery of detail, he is well respected by Ukrainian general class. But some western military analysts have their doubts. As do many of those who have been under his strict command.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1755636333756690642

An often heard complaint is that Syrsky resembles Russian generals in an important regard: he makes people too scared to tell the truth to him. But there are those in ukr army who hold radically different views and see him as the most experienced general Ukraine has.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1755634007646048312

Syrsky is Zaluzhny’s replacement. His popularity with the troops is not amazing, to say the least

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1755639246101094462

A former high-ranking Ukrainian intel officer told me the delay in firing Zaluzhny had a lot to do with fear of a mutiny, so popular is the general in the military. Assuming Zelensky gained reassurances, appointing Syrsky to replace Zaluzhny strikes me as... bizarre.

Excerpt from a book about Zaluzhnyi's political future: https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1755637934701560259

Don't Toews Me · Feb 8, 2024

F-16 update: https://twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1755660673789333611

With respect to the #Ukrainian F-16 training, "everything we see right now, they're on track," @NationalGuard Bureau Chief Gen. Hokanson tells me in briefing now

Longer read worth checking out: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/ukraine-soldiers-shortage-infantry-russia/

The Ukrainian military is facing a critical shortage of infantry, leading to exhaustion and diminished morale on the front line, military personnel in the field said this week — a perilous new dynamic for Kyiv nearly two years into the grinding, bloody war with Russia.
In interviews across the front line in recent days, nearly a dozen soldiers and commanders told The Washington Post that personnel deficits were their most critical problem now, as Russia has regained the offensive initiative on the battlefield and is stepping up its attacks.
One battalion commander in a mechanized brigade fighting in eastern Ukraine said that his unit currently has fewer than 40 infantry troops — the soldiers deployed in front-line trenches who hold off Russian assaults. A fully equipped battalion would have more than 200, the commander said.
Another commander in an infantry battalion of a different brigade said his unit is similarly depleted.
The soldiers interviewed spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly and could face retribution for their comments.

Oleksandr, a battalion commander, said the companies in his unit on average are staffed at about 35 percent of what they should be. A second battalion commander from an assault brigade said that is typical for units that carry out combat tasks.
Asked how many new soldiers he has received — not including those who have returned after injuries — Oleksandr said his battalion was sent five people over the past five months. He and other commanders said the new recruits tend to be poorly trained, creating a dilemma about whether to send someone immediately onto the battlefield because reinforcements are needed so badly, even though they are likely to get injured or killed because they lack the know-how.
“The basis of everything is the lack of people,” Oleksandr said.
“Where are we going? I don’t know,” he added. “There’s no positive outlook. Absolutely none. It’s going to end in a lot of death, a global failure. And most likely, I think, the front will collapse somewhere like it did for the enemy in 2022, in the Kharkiv region.”

“We have direct trouble with personnel,” said Mykyta, a deputy infantry battalion commander. “Because this is war, and it’s infantry in defense that’s dying.”
“I’m talking with my friends, also officers in other units, and those in infantry; it’s almost the same situation everywhere,” Mykyta added.

FDF officer's take: https://twitter.com/Inkvisiit/status/1755658981878419779

It has been tough couple of weeks. General situation on the frontline seems to be deteriorating around Avdiivka and northern Luhansk. Velyka Novosilka sector been activating and Novomykhailivka not faring particularly well either. 1/
And then there is the mobilization deadlock and manpower&munitions crisis coupled with the military-political command crisis in Kyiv. Latter seems to be resolving now, at least publicly, but there may be unforseen consequences and shocks throughout the UKR armed forces. 2/
Timing for all this to go down could not be worse, especially since the command crisis has clearly been gaining momentum ever since the summer offensive failed. A lot will depend on Russian ability to exploit this situation and we should expect them to try within coming weeks. 3/
As for the Russian ability.. Russians have certainly been pressing their manpower and munitions advantage, but at tactical level their competence still seems to be lacking to such a degree, that any sort of wide scale operational success seems unlikely (for now). 4/
Avdiivka is likely to fall and the general situation in northern Luhansk is likely to deteriorate further. Then again you won’t need much tactical finesse if the Ukrainians simply run out manpower and ammo. Hard weeks and months are ahead for Ukraine. 5/5

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1755642642442936540

So, General Zaluzhny's political career is about to kick-start in full swing.
IMHO, he is going to retire from military service soon enough.

https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1755575361826431071

Russia's defence ministry is proposing to raise the upper age limit for military service by contract soldiers and mobilised men to 65.

A good time for a reminder that the life expectancy at birth for men in Russia per latest world bank data is 64.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1755619052184383958

Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-25 attack aircraft from the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade was shot down by the Russians near Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine on February 7.

The pilot, 30 years old Major Vladyslav Rykov, perished. Rykov had 385 sorties completed and was awarded with the Order for Courage before his death.

Russian forces storm Ukraine's Avdiivka 'with very large forces' – DW – 02/08/2024

p.dw.com

Moscow's troops are pushing en masse toward the frontline town of Avdiivka, according to the local mayor, intensifying their monthslong effort to seize the industrial center.

Russia has invested heavily in capturing the town, which has been a flashpoint since it briefly fell to Kremlin-backed separatists in 2014.

"Unfortunately, the enemy is pressing from all directions. There is not a single part of our city that is more or less calm," mayor Vitaly Barabash told state media.

"They are storming with very large forces," he added.

Seizing Avdiivka would represent a much-needed victory for Russia in the run-up to the second anniversary of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the March presidential election.

Fewer than 950 people from an estimated pre-war population of some 33,000 remain in Avdiivka, a town dominated by a huge coking plant.

The town sits in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, which the Kremlin claims as part of Russia, along with four other Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims it has annexed.

Barabash described the fighting as "very hot" and "very difficult."

"The situation in some directions is simply unreal," he said.

Ukraine's armed forces reported Thursday that its troops had fended off 40 enemy assaults around Avdiivka over the previous 24 hours.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 8, 2024

How Ukraine’s top general ran out of road both in Kyiv and in Washington

Valery Zaluzhny had a target on his back for the Ukrainian military’s failure to make more progress against the Russian last year.

www.politico.eu

A senior Ukrainian military officer, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak frankly, said there had been frustration building among the upper ranks of the military that Zaluzhny spends “a lot of time on Facebook showing off how he is doing something,” while little changes tactically or strategically along the front lines.

Relations between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny had been tense for months over the disappointing 2023 counteroffensive. It was launched in the summer — months after some at the Pentagon and elsewhere thought it should have begun.

Some U.S. and Western advisers recommended larger, more tightly targeted assaults on specific positions which would thrust Ukrainian mass against weaker sections of the well-entrenched Russian lines.

Once the fight started, fresh Ukrainian units, trained by Western militaries but without combat experience, struggled in the brutal assaults that ran headlong into Russian defenses. After months of fighting, Ukraine only managed to claw back several miles of territory, at a huge cost in lives and equipment.
That left Zaluzhny open to attacks.

"This was not the way to do it. It was impossible, but the position of the commander in chief was a bit arrogant: ‘Let's start a brawl, and then we'll see,'" the Ukrainian officer said.

There was also tension between Zaluzhny and the Pentagon over how the counteroffensive was to be waged.

The Pentagon pushed for the Ukrainian military to make a major thrust focused on one area where planners thought a breakthrough was possible. Instead, Kyiv chose several assaults across the front in the belief that would make it difficult for the Russians to reinforce many points at once.

After weeks of disagreements, “it became pretty clear over the course of the offensive that Ukrainians just weren't interested in U.S. advice, and they generally concluded that we have nothing to offer them advice-wise,” said one person who has advised the White House on military matters.

The argument, the adviser said, was that the United States didn’t have experience fighting the kind of war the Ukrainians were fighting, and while U.S. advice was welcomed, it could also be tone-deaf.

While blame for those disagreements fell squarely on Zaluzhny’s shoulders, he was also “hamstrung by Zelenskyy,” who had the final say on military matters, “and so the U.S. kept yelling at the wrong person,” the adviser said.

In the coming months, as Ukraine is now forced on the defensive, the current “war of attrition is a very, very bad choice for Ukraine,” the Ukrainian officer said.

Rather, Ukraine should adopt an “asymmetric” approach, the officer said, that focuses on defense and industrial targets inside Russia “to break them, instead of this meat grinder” — something that in the long run favors Russia and its larger population and deeper stocks of equipment and armor.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 8, 2024

Who is Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s new top military commander?

General credited with key battlefield successes has also faced criticism over tactics and costly defence of Bakhmut

www.ft.com

Born in 1965 in Vladimir, east of Moscow, Syrsky trained at the Higher Military Command School in the Russian capital — the Soviet equivalent of Sandhurst or West Point — and served in the army’s artillery corps.
Syrsky moved to Ukraine in the 1980s. Following the country’s independence, he rose through the ranks of the Ukrainian army and led forces that fought against Russian troops at the decisive battle of Debaltseve in 2015, nearly a year into the war between the two sides in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s defeat in Debaltseve led to a ceasefire deal that benefited Moscow and solidified its grip over the Donbas, giving it to time to prepare for its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
However, despite losing the battle, Syrsky was awarded Ukraine’s Order of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, given to military personnel for “exceptional duty in defence of state sovereignty and state security”. And in 2019 he was put in charge of Ukraine’s entire ground forces, overseeing its operation in the Donbas.
Many analysts and Ukrainian soldiers say his tactical approach draws on his Soviet military training and believe his appointment is unlikely to bring the new approach that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has in mind in replacing General Valeriy Zaluzhny, even though some have privately criticised the latter for being slow to adapt to the ever-changing realities of the war with Russia.

But while in charge of ground forces during the bloody 10-month battle for Bakhmut in 2022-23, Syrsky made decisions that led to heavy casualties and the decimation of some of Ukraine’s most experienced brigades, soldiers on the frontline told the Financial Times at the time. They said Syrsky should have ordered a tactical withdrawal of forces from the city months before Russia captured it. Those troops as well as some analysts argue such a move could have reserved battle-hardened forces for use in a counteroffensive in 2023.
While Syrsky has touted several successes around Bakhmut, none of them have actually materialised, and some territory that had been retaken after Russia’s seizure of the city has since been lost again.
Ukrainian troops and western officials speaking on condition of anonymity told the FT that Syrsky’s appointment as top commander bodes ill for the war. Soldiers who have criticised him in interviews say that he has callously thrown away troops. Some have dubbed him “the butcher”.
News of Syrsky’s appointment on Thursday caused uproar among the ranks of Ukraine’s military, with many soldiers expressing their dismay in private chat groups and publicly on social media.
“We are all screwed,” wrote a soldier on X, adding this was the sentiment among troops in a private chat group “who went through all stages of the defence of Bakhmut with Syrsky”.

Syrsky has said that “the army is outside of politics”. But he is seen as closely associated with Zelenskyy and politically connected — but without the charisma of Zaluzhny.
Some western officials involved in Ukrainian policy and analysts who advise Washington have privately expressed misgivings about Syrsky’s decision-making since Russia’s full-scale invasion and concerns over his ability to resist political interference in operational matters.

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1755705991520301460

One kilometre - the distance between the advancing Russian troops and the main supply route in Avdiivka.

Ministry of Pain · Feb 8, 2024

Would someone like to link the 2 hour interview with Putin?
I doubt you can believe much of it but it's not every day that one of the 2 key people that can put a stop to this war actually fields an interview
If you want to call it that.

-Was DTM left with the task of having to do ALL of the POSTING in here?

top dog · Feb 8, 2024

Ministry of Pain said:
Would someone like to link the 2 hour interview with Putin?
I doubt you can believe much of it but it's not every day that one of the 2 key people that can put a stop to this war actually fields an interview
If you want to call it that.

-Was DTM left with the task of having to do ALL of the POSTING in here?

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1755734526678925682

Don't Toews Me · Feb 9, 2024

F-16 update: https://www.airandspaceforces.com/guard-chief-ukraine-f-16-training/

The first four Ukrainian pilots training to fly the F-16 at Morris Air National Guard Base, Ariz., are “on track,” the head of the National Guard Bureau said Feb. 8, and the first batch of pilots are funded to complete their schooling. But Gen. Daniel R. Hokanson told the Pentagon press that Congress must authorize more funding to add additional pilots to the training queue.

Ukrainian pilots arrived in the U.S. to train to fly F-16s in September, first at Lackland Air Force Base, Texas, for a crash course in English, and then beginning in October at Morris Air National Guard Base, Ariz., home of the 162nd Wing, where the day-to-day mission is focused on training foreign pilots to fly F-16s.

The U.S. and its allies expect the Ukrainian Air Force to achieve initial operating capability with its F-16s by the end of 2024, according to Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander, who said pilot training was on track.

Hokanson echoed Wallander’s assessment, but added the caveat that without additional funding, things could change in the coming months.

“Everything we see right now, they’re on track,” Hokanson said. “Obviously as we get further on to higher levels, they may be more advanced or less. But we look at each pilot individually, because what we want to do is prepare them, as much as possible before they go back to Ukraine, to be successful.”

Pilots at Morris complete the six-month “B Course”—or Basic Course—to become proficient in the fundamentals necessary to transition to the F-16. That is the course the four Ukrainian pilots are now undergoing, a defense official previously told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1755932327983587621

In his first public statement as the Ukrainian military’s commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi stressed the importance of new technology and adaptability to Ukraine’s future success defending itself against Russia.

Not too surprising about having family in Russia: https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1755960335918346733

Another strange twist in this grim war. We have confirmed that Syrskyi's family still lives in Russia and aggressively back the war. On Odnoklassniki his mother Lyudmila and his brother Oleg frequently “like” posts that back the war and parrot propaganda re Ukrainian "Neo-Nazis"

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1755954588669059102

Danish defence minister: “It cannot be ruled out that within a three- to five-year period, Russia will test Article 5 and Nato’s solidarity. That was not Nato’s assessment in 2023. This is new information that is coming to the fore now”
"Russia’s capacity to produce military equipment has increased tremendously . . . Russia potentially has the will to [launch attacks]. Now they can also have the ability in terms of military capability earlier than we expected."

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1755910128732172401

Volodymyr Zelensky has named former AFU Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhyni a Hero of Ukraine, one day after dismissing him. The Ukrainian president also awarded the title to military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov.

A New General Takes Over as Ukraine Struggles on the Battlefield

Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky is taking a job vacated by a general who is well-regarded by the army, in what is widely perceived as a politicized shake-up of Ukraine’s military leadership.

www.nytimes.com

Complicating his command is the fact that he is taking a job vacated by a general who is well regarded by the army and the broader society, in what is widely perceived as a politicized shake-up of Ukraine’s military leadership.
Some soldiers and junior commanders in Ukraine’s military view General Syrsky as a holdover from an older generation, and say his embrace of a head-on fight in Bakhmut showed that he was pursuing bloody, Soviet-style military tactics against an enemy doing the same.
A Ukrainian platoon commander who has been fighting in the east on and off since 2014, and under General Syrsky since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, said that the general had shown little willingness to adapt as new tactics and new technologies have appeared on the battlefield. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not permitted to speak to the news media.
But the general has his supporters.
The battle for Bakhmut also enforced his reputation as a strong commander who leaves emotions aside, some say. General Syrsky, said Hanna Maliar, a former Ukrainian deputy defense minister, “has vast combat experience in this war.”
He has also worked closely with NATO on programs to modernize the army, beginning in 2013. And in the battles to rebuff the attack on Kyiv and clear out Russian forces from the Kharkiv region, he and his subordinates relied not on head-to-head infantry warfare, but on trickery and rapid maneuvers by small units.

The dismissal of Valery Zaluzhny is a crucial new phase in the war

Unfortunately, President Zelensky risks getting it wrong

www.economist.com

One risk for Mr Zelensky will be the grumbling provoked in the army by the sacking of a much-loved commander. General Sysrsky has a reputation for being willing to engage the enemy, even if the cost in men and machines is high. He is a divisive figure who provokes strong reactions from serving officers. Some praise his professionalism, others say he terrifies his subordinates and rules by fear. He is less likely to question the priorities of his president. As he takes on the top job, he will have to soften his style of command and learn to speak truth to power.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 9, 2024

Ukraine faces ‘gap in the hose’ as western ammunition dries up

Officials say congressional delays are creating critical shortfall of supplies needed on the battlefield

www.ft.com

Ukraine faces a critical gap in western artillery ammunition needed to withstand Russian attacks, officials have warned, as US assistance runs out and Europe fails to hit its own targets for increased arms production.
Kyiv has already been struggling to hold back Russia’s troops along a 1,500km active frontline, with Ukrainian forces rationing stockpiles and firing only about a third of the number of rounds they need each day to maintain their position.
Further aggravating their situation is the failure in Washington to pass $60bn in military and financial aid, which means most American shipments are at an effective pause, while a promised European ramp-up of production has not been fast enough, according to US and European officials.

Western officials have warned that the coming months will stretch Ukraine’s ability to fight with fewer resources, with Russia already exploiting the resource advantage to make gains in key locations such as around the strategic town of Avdiivka.
“This is really as grave as we have been portraying it,” a US defence official said, noting that the US had run out of money to fund new weapons contracts for Ukraine or funds that would allow the Pentagon to take inventory from its stockpiles and replenish those stocks.
“My take is that this is a very grim scenario,” the defence official said, adding that the Pentagon was particularly concerned about maintaining Ukrainians’ air defence systems and ammunition supplies.
“It is a desperate situation on the front lines for the Ukrainians, far worse than they are letting on,” said a senior Nato diplomat.
Nearly two years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Moscow’s superior ammunition and manpower has forced Ukraine to adopt a strategy of “active defence” this year, after a much-vaunted counteroffensive in 2023 failed to make a significant breakthrough.
The risk of a gap in military assistance was “the main concern” for the first half of this year, a senior European diplomat said, warning that even holding on to current positions would be hard for Ukrainians to achieve.
“It will not be easy for the Europeans to substitute for the US. That’s not entirely realistic,” said one senior European diplomat. “Can [the EU] be enough if the US changes course of its direction? I’m not sure.”

Norway aid: https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/norway-provide-more-nasams-to-ukraine/id3024972/

The Government proposes to the Norwegian Parliament to order a further ten launch units and four fire control centers of the air defense system NASAMS from Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace (KDA). This is done in addition to repurchasing the equipment that has already been donated to Ukraine. The investment is NOK 3.45 billion.

New package from Finland: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1755973701281976670

Finland has announced a new €190 million equipment package for Ukraine. This will be the 22nd defensive aid package from Finland to Ukraine.

Specific aid is undisclosed, but previously Finland donated Sisu XA-180 APCs, Leopard 2Rs, 122mm/152mm artillery, and ammunition.

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1755955628793577795

Three new interesting details about Rheinmetall's new 155 mm factory in Unterlüß! In addition to Chancellor Scholz and Minister of Defence Pistorius, Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen will also be present at the ground-breaking ceremony on Monday.

I hope that this means that the new framework contract for 155 mm ammunition for Ukraine will be announced on the spot and that this is a joint procurement by Denmark and Germany (would not be the first time: Leopard 1A5, M113, Zuzana 2, Bergepanzer 2).

It was also announced today that Rheinmetall intends to produce not only 155 mm ammunition but also explosives and “rocket motors” at the new plant in Unterlüß!

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1755986308877414859

A photo featuring F-16s adorned with Ukrainian Air Force badges at an airbase in Europe was shared on social media
Ukrainian pilots express delight with the F-16 fighters, stating that the aircraft has exceeded all expectations during training in Europe.

A pilot using the call sign 'Phantom' shared with Voice of America that the training is progressing as planned, taking six months for each group of pilots and technicians. The aviators foresee promising prospects with these aircraft.

Regarding the infrastructure for the F-16 in Ukraine, the pilot mentioned it will be ready by the time the fighters are handed over to the Armed Forces.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1755967781005144335

We've heard similar Russian statements before, with no real results - unclear if this recent announcement means these UGVs will be used in Ukraine: "Prospective ground robots to get AI, technical vision."

Don't Toews Me · Feb 10, 2024

Ukraine Has a New Military Commander but the Problems Haven’t Changed

As Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky assumes his role, he must reckon with a grim calculus: When does the cost of defending ground outweigh any benefit gained by inflicting pain on the enemy?

www.nytimes.com

American officials assess that, without replenishment, Ukraine has enough air defenses to last until only next month.

Western officials and military experts have warned that without U.S. assistance, a cascading collapse along the front is a real possibility later this year.
It would still be at least a couple of months before the lack of renewed aid has a widespread impact, they say. But without it, they add, it’s hard to see how Ukraine will be able to maintain its current positions on the battlefield.
By next month, Ukraine could struggle to conduct local counterattacks, and by early summer, its military might have difficulty rebuffing Russian assaults, the officials and analysts say.
However, officials also assess that Russia would struggle to quickly build enough capability to conduct a major offensive across eastern Ukraine. Instead, the Russian forces would most likely move forward in a clumsy disjointed way but with a high threshold for casualties among their own troops.

Oleksandr, a 27-year-old soldier fighting on the front who, like others in this article, asked to be identified by only his first name in line with military policy, said, “In the million-strong army, there are and will be problems, countless problems, but here we are talking about trust.”
“General Zaluzhny has had — and continues to have — unquestionable authority and trust from both the military and society,” Oleksandr added. “The president did not clearly explain to society the reasons for General Zaluzhny’s resignation.”
Other soldiers, however, seemed to take the change in stride. Viy, a 43-year-old battalion commander, said that Generals Zaluzhny and Syrsky might have different management styles but results were all that counted.
“In the big picture, during two years of war, when you are constantly working at a very high pace, especially for military personnel, you don’t pay much attention to the high echelons of power,” Viy said.
Victor, a 45-year-old sniper, said that the decision did not come as a surprise given the very public tensions between Mr. Zelensky and General Zaluzhny.
“We’re soldiers, and we can’t afford to fall into the depression and panic that partially sweeps through the civilians now,” Victor said.
He also expressed concern that the Russians would try to exploit the change, but he said that soldiers had little time to think about political machinations.
High-level strategy is important, he added, but the war is being fought by “ordinary guys in trenches and cities.”
“Skilled commanders at the level of companies and battalions, that’s who wins the war,” he noted. “Whether Syrsky or someone else comes, they’ll fight just the same. You can’t build an army around one person.”

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1756274517511385555

Avdiivka Front Map (February 10)

Russian Forces are advancing in the North and South of Avdiivka, but Ukraine still controls the majority of the city and the Avdiivka Coke Plant

The main problem for Ukraine is they are mostly surrounded, and the supply lines are under attack

CNN video segment from Kharkiv: https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1756214561353420996

Kyiv's new military chief seeks more drones, electronic warfare – DW – 02/10/2024

p.dw.com

The new chief of Ukraine's armed forces Oleksandr Syrskyi has said one of his top priorities is to step up the use of drones and electronic warfare.

Syrskyi said this technology was key to Ukraine's future success in liberating occupied territory from Russian forces.

"Only by changing and constantly improving the means and methods of warfare will we be able to successfully pursue this path," he wrote on Telegram.

Syrskyi described the rapid and efficient supply of front-line troops as equally important, adding that, "the lives and health of the soldiers were and remain the most important value of the Ukrainian army."

He said military leaders want troops to be rotated from the front more often, and be given more rest periods and training.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 10, 2024

Cracks appear in Ukraine’s eastern fortress of Avdiivka

Siege could become a second Bakhmut for Ukraine, where defenders eventually retreated under ‘meat wave’ assaults by Russian troops.

www.politico.eu

However, the Ukrainian open-source analytical project Deep State, as well as soldiers and officers on the ground, described the situation on Thursday as "critical and chaotic."

“Russians are trying to break into the city. Their subversive groups occasionally enter the outskirts of Avdiivka but are rebuffed by the defense forces. The route leading to the city is bombarded by aircraft and artillery, but the connection is functioning,” Ukrainian army officer Dmytro Lazutkin told POLITICO.

“If the occupiers manage to break into the high-rise district, urban battles are inevitable. Then it will partially resemble Bakhmut,” Lazutkin added.

However, a high-ranking Ukrainian officer, who was granted anonymity to speak due to the sensitivity of the issue, said there are differences between how the battle for Avdiivka is playing out and what happened in Bakhmut.

In Bakhmut, Russians used poorly trained former prisoners from Storm-Z detachments and Wagner Group mercenaries to exhaust Ukrainian defenses in meat waves, whereas in Avdiivka Russia is using well-rested and trained professional soldiers, who move into the city following artillery barrages.

"That’s how they work in Avdiivka — artillery levels everything to the ground, and then professional landing troops come in small groups,” the officer said.

Colonel: Presidential elections in Russia having an effect on battles in Ukraine

Russia maintains the initiative in ground operations but without significant progress. The upcoming presidential elections in Russia influence the efforts of both sides, said Col. Tarmo Kundla, chief of operations for the EDF Headquarters.

news.err.ee

Russia maintains the initiative in ground operations but without significant progress. The upcoming presidential elections in Russia influence the efforts of both sides, said Col. Tarmo Kundla, chief of operations for the EDF Headquarters.

"The upcoming presidential elections in Russia affect the efforts of both sides. Russia is still trying to achieve at least a marginal, but highly visible, tactical victory," Col. Kundla said at the Ministry of Defense's press conference on Friday.

He added that, meanwhile, Ukraine is extending its military operations further into Russian internal territory, hitting high-value targets there.

According to Kundla, Russia's operational-tactical objectives remain unfulfilled, Ukraine's defense is holding, and Ukrainians continue deep operations within Russian territory.

In the north, the situation continues without significant changes. "The Russian armed forces continue to demonstrate their presence and conduct sabotage activities in the areas of Kursk and Bryansk oblasts bordering Ukraine," Kundla stated.

In the northeast, Russia continues armored attacks in the directions of Kupiansk and Lyman, actively using air and artillery forces support. "Although Russia holds the initiative there, the advances are insignificant," Kundla mentioned.

The colonel noted the possibility that in the coming weeks, the Russian armed forces might conduct raids into Ukrainian territory along the border areas of Belgorod and Kharkiv oblasts to tie down the Russian units there and lure Ukrainian forces from the Kupiansk direction to send additional troops.

The Donetsk direction remains the main effort of the Russian armed forces.

Active combat is taking place in the areas of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk. "About half of the Russian armed forces' combat activity occurs in this region," Kundla said.

In the direction of Avdiivka, the Russian Federation has advanced and entered the populated areas of Avdiivka, but Ukrainian supply lines have not yet been cut. "From Ukraine's perspective, the situation is quite critical, but the fight continues," Kundla noted.

The pressure of the Russian Federation continues south of Donetsk towards Marinka. "Russia's goal is still to increase its control in that area and seize the Donetsk region," Kundla explained.

On the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts, the intensity of the Russian armed forces is significantly lower, and Russia has not managed to achieve success.

Ukrainian bridgeheads on the east bank of the Dnipro remain.

"In summary, the initiative on the front line is still in the hands of the Russian armed forces. They have not achieved significant success, but there have been some minor advances. The situation in Avdiivka is relatively critical, but Ukraine's defense is holding," Kundla concluded.

The replacement of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces will not bring changes to the front line in the near term, according to Kundla.

US F-16s are exceeding the expectations of Ukraine's pilots, report says

Ukrainian pilots training on US F-16 fighter jets are praising the multi-role jet fighter.

www.businessinsider.com

Ukrainian pilots are "very impressed" with US F-16 fighter jets, the Ukrainian service of the Voice of America reported.

A pilot who went by the call sign "Phantom" said in an interview with the outlet that Ukrainian pilots training on the multirole fighters in the US and Europe had praised the aircraft.

"Our pilots are very impressed," he said. "This plane simply exceeded their expectations. Even with the amount of information they have received during training, they already see great prospects and great potential for how this aircraft will help our Air Force."

And you can imagine that there's information that they haven't learned yet, haven't given them yet, about what else this aircraft might be capable of."

But "Phantom" added that retraining pilots on the advanced aircraft did present certain challenges as many were accustomed to flying older Russian-built Su-27s and MiG-29s.

Thread: https://twitter.com/KSE_Institute/status/1756322794747342925

1/5 has lost $113B in oil exports due to EU & G7 sanctions, plus an additional $55B from the shift away from gas. Four steps could slash another $50B from the Kremlin's annual export revenues.

New paper by @sanctionsgroup: https://t.ly/8U5kR

What should be done
2/5 Stop the Russian Shadow Fleet: Intensify sanctions and enforce oil spill insurance to make Russia depend on the compliant mainstream fleet. Enhance scrutiny and penalties for sanction evasion.
3/5 Lower Price Caps: Decrease oil and refined products price caps, aiming to cut Russia's foreign exchange inflows by $25-30 billion annually.
4/5 Complete the EU and G7 Ban on Russian Hydrocarbons: Enforce a total ban on Russian LNG and gas, eliminating key export revenues and promoting diversification.
5/5 Isolate Russia's Oil and Gas Sector: Sever access to essential Western technology and services, further straining Russia's energy production capabilities and costs.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1756429932182278200

According to @Deepstate_UA, Russian forces have advanced further in northern Avdiivka, expanding their foothold across the rail line.

Video: https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1756376785611067593

That appears to be the first documented loss of the 50P6E TEL of a new Russian S-350 air defense system in Ukraine.

What's more interesting though, according to the source, the vehicle belonged to the VDV unit and blew up on a mine planted by the Russians.

Orange&Blue · Feb 10, 2024

I've never been more disappointed as a conservative.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 11, 2024

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1756681747591200914

Russia has launched a propaganda campaign to discredit the new Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi by painting him as “a Soviet and a Russian,” according to Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation.

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1756605057183682790

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky named Oleksandr Pavliuk as the new commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces. Oleksandr Syrskyi held the position before he was appointed as the new commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1756629268224680270

According to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate, the Russian military is regularly using the Starlink satellite Internet system during combat operations in occupied Ukrainian territories.

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-using-musks-starlink-at-the-front-line-ukraine-says-516701f0?st=gjrz7md1twbcjhr&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Although Starlink systems can’t be purchased in Russia, Ukrainian media reported that Russian forces have been purchasing the devices in third countries, and then bringing them to the front.
Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said Kyiv had intercepted radio communications from Russia’s 83rd Separate Air-Assault Brigade in the occupied Donetsk region that indicated they were using Starlink terminals.
“This is starting to become systemic,” Yusov said of the Russian use of Starlink in occupied territory.

https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1756317738987819371

This is the important point - given the prevalence of GPS jamming and SpaceX only knowing the approximate location of terminals, SpaceX can either provide service coverage over the frontline which means also Russians who are close to UA positions, or not provide service to anyone in the area.
And figuring out which terminals are operated by Russians and which by Ukrainians is non-trivial. If you want to avoid accidentally cutting off UA units from service, you can't afford to make mistakes.
This is the approximate size of a Starlink coverage cell if you center it in the center of Avdiivka - so if you want Ukrainians there to have coverage, Russians within ~12km will also be able to use Starlink terminals they have there.
All this is public info - it is a miracle Russians didnt figure this out earlier. There are still good reasons for Russians to not use the service, but low-level troops might not care.

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1756470879142170805

Talking to a lot of Ukrainian soldiers and officers the past few days, and every single one actively hates the appointment of Syrski, replacing Zaluzhny. Morale at the front is already bad, with the lack of reinforcements. Now it is becoming actively toxic.

https://twitter.com/WarVehicle/status/1756655030067720571

The first confirmed loss of a US-supplied M142 HIMARs MLRS, in the process of being loaded into an An-124 “Ruslan”.

It seems to have suffered Shrapnel Damage, but no direct hit luckily.

It will now be going to the US for repairs

Don't Toews Me · Feb 11, 2024

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/10/europe/russian-forces-push-into-ukraine-avdiivka-intl-hnk/index.html

Avdiivka, to the northwest of Donetsk city, remains the scene of some of the heaviest fighting as Russian forces continue their push from the north into the center of town.

The DeepState mapping site has shown a series of Russian advances in recent days and now puts Moscow’s fighters in control of part of the railway line just north of the town’s station.

Ukraine’s commander of southern forces, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, said Saturday that his logistics teams were still able to get supplies into the town and that he was rotating fresh fighters into the battle as well as setting up additional firing positions.

Even so, the DeepState mapping site suggests Russian forces are perhaps no more than several hundred meters away from the main supply route into town.

Serhii Tsekhotskyi, an officer with the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, told Ukrainian television that Russia was deploying large numbers of troop into the battle for Avdiivka. Many were being killed, he insisted.

“They do not spare their people, so we have a lot of work to do,” he said.
He also drew attention once again to the prevalence of drones, reporting some 70 bombs dropped from Russian UAVs on brigade positions in the town in one day alone.

“Their stock [of drones] is being replenished, they are constantly improving their UAVs, and are also using electronic warfare,” he said.

In his first statement since being appointed Commander-in-Chief, he appeared, at least in part, to acknowledge a need to address that, saying, “The lives and health of servicemen have always been and remain the main value of the Ukrainian army. Therefore, maintaining a balance between combat missions and the restoration of units and subunits with intensified education and training of personnel remains as relevant as ever.”

However, Syrskyi is under pressure from Ukraine’s political leadership to come up with a new plan that avoids “stagnation” on the battlefield, while at the same time not pushing for too many new conscripts, as a new mobilization bill makes its way through parliament.

His predecessor, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, was dismissed in part for describing the war as being in a “stalemate” situation after the much-anticipated counteroffensive last year failed to deliver gains of any note.
President Volodymyr Zelensky was also irritated by Zaluzhnyi’s suggestions he needed a huge mobilization drive to turn things around. Though the army chief has said he did not put a number on it, he became associated with an idea that half a million new soldiers were needed.

Regardless of how many draftees Syrskyi ends up requesting, evidence from multiple frontline locations continues to suggest Russia’s superior troop numbers are making a difference.

East of Kupiansk and the Oskil river, along the northernmost stretch of the battle, an army spokesman told Ukrainian television on Saturday that Russian forces were pressing.

“The enemy continues to move its reserves to replace those previously lost … The enemy is deploying Storm Z units [soldiers recruited from prison] and motorized infantry units, supported by artillery and drones. They are trying to move forward,” the spokesman said.

Altogether, Russia had 42,000 men stationed in the area – though not all at the frontline – along with 500 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, he added.

Also under heavy pressure is Chasiv Yar, a town about 15 kilometers west of Bakhmut. Again, a local Ukrainian commander reported Russians attacking with “a huge force of personnel.”

The army spokesmen also said the other big Ukrainian shortcoming at present – low ammunition stocks – was being keenly felt.

Russia’s forces attacking Chasiv Yar from the flanks enjoyed a “several-fold advantage in the number of shellings. We need more shells, thousands and thousands of shells, especially 155mm ones,” he told national television.

Video: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1756728380194422882

Footage of Ukrainian naval forces downing a Russian Shahed-131/136 attack drone over Odesa.

Video: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1756722710795751497

Another drone-on-drone combat in Ukraine - somewhere in Kherson region, a Russian quadcopter apparently attacked a Ukrainian heavy "Baba Yaga" drone.

Video: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1756719064750096456

Ukraine's Sergiy Flash: "The Russian military has begun using “smart drones” with machine vision that are capable of bypassing Ukrainian electronic warfare."

Video: https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1756621324561039734

️"Russian oil depots don't explode by themselves, and ships don't sink just like that," - Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine Fedorov showed Ukraine's powerful Drone Army

More than 90% of them did not exist in 2022. In the issue, you can see the size of the Ukrainian "Shahed" and the Magura naval drone that was recently sunk by the Russian missile ship "Ivanovets".

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1756703216132116938

"The situation on the front line is 'very difficult'. Ukrainian troops need weapons, weapons and once again weapons," Danilov told the Portuguese news agency Lusa

According to him, if the West does not significantly increase the supply of arms and ammunition, the situation will become even more difficult, and any waiting clearly does not play in our favor.

"If I say that everyone is highly motivated, it will be a false statement," he added.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 11, 2024

Short on Soldiers, Ukraine Debates How to Find the Next Wave of Troops

A potential expansion of the nation’s military draft to replenish the exhausted, battered army has become an emotional, politically charged issue.

www.nytimes.com

On this extraordinarily sensitive issue for Ukraine, “the unity is gone,” Iryna Friz, a member of Parliament with the opposition European Solidarity party, said in an interview. “The question of mobilization was sabotaged for politics.”
The bill on mobilization has passed a first reading in Ukraine’s Parliament. It would lower the conscription age to 25 from 27 and stiffen penalties on draft dodgers.
Ukraine currently drafts men between the ages of 27 and 60. Under martial law, all men between 18 and 60 are prohibited from leaving the country, lest a decision be taken to draft them.
Men with three or more children are exempted, but men with three children or fewer who volunteered, or whose families expanded as they served, have not been permitted to leave the military.
The bill in Parliament also allows for the demobilization of troops after three years of service, holding out the prospect of a reprieve about a year from now for soldiers who have been fighting since the invasion in 2022. The law is expected to pass this month and take effect in March, Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a member of the opposition Holos party, wrote on Telegram.

Lowering the draft age, for example, would bring more lithe, healthy soldiers to the fight, but poses long-term risks for sustaining Ukraine’s future population given the country’s demographics.
As in most former Soviet states, Ukraine has a small generation of 20-year-olds because birthrates plummeted during the deep economic depression of the 1990s. Because of this demographic trough, there are now three times as many men in their 40s as in their 20s in Ukraine.
Drafting more men in their 20s, given the likely battle casualties, would risk reducing the number of births in this small generation of Ukrainians, resulting in declines of draft- and working-age men decades from now and endangering the country’s future security and economy.

Video: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1756634450920694144

HUR publishes intercepted a call proving use of Starlink by russian army. In the short call, a serviceman who installed the system confirmed connection between two Wi-Fi bridges.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1756683985705451670

Update: Zelenskyy also dismissed Lt. Gen. Serhey Naev and Maj. Gen. Maksym Myrhorodskyi.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1756686431999738016

Lt. Gen. Serhey Naev, the now former commander of Ukrainian United Forces, says he learned about his dismissal from the media.

Russia suspected of spy drone flights over German bases – DW – 02/11/2024

p.dw.com

Germany suspects that Russia is behind a series of unauthorized drone flights over German military bases, the country's Military Counter-intelligence Service (MAD) has said.

Some of the suspected spy activity is focused on the Bundeswehr's training of soldiers from Ukraine, MAD was cited by DPA news agency as saying.

"The number of such incidents has increased in the recent past," a spokesman for the Bundeswehr's Territorial Command told DPA.

He said there is increased vigilance among soldiers over possible spying attempts.

The spokesman said the conspicuous flights were observed at the beginning and end of training sessions for Ukrainian soldiers.

Suspicious activity has been reported in Wildflecken in Bavaria, Grafenwoehr and Idar-Oberstein in Rhineland-Palatinate, as well as at
the Altengrabow military training area in Saxony-Anhalt.

No arrests have so far been made, which DPA said could be due to jurisdiction issues between the army and the police.

Bundeswehr members have jurisdiction over army properties, but any suspects apprehended would then be handed over to the police along with any drones seized, according to the Territorial Command.

Outside of Bundeswehr properties, however, the police are responsible for pursuing and arresting individuals.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-military-drone-production-ramping-up-says-defence-minister-2024-02-10/

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said in footage published by his ministry on Saturday that the country's production of military drones had ramped up in the past year, though certain technical issues still needed tackling.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 11, 2024

My Ukrainian front line heroes are at their lowest ebb

Zelensky sacking his general has sent troops’ morale plunging and set them worrying about his replacement

www.thetimes.co.uk

Soaked, freezing, yet radiant as he wrapped his arms around his wife, Marcus was home. He’d trekked deep inside Russian held territory to evacuate his family.
But, as his clothes dried on radiators and she brought him hot soup, bread and cold cuts, they agreed escape was too risky. Marcus and Maria, his wife, stayed on to run a network of curtain twitching spies in Sumy province, northeastern Ukraine — reporting on the invaders’ every move from behind enemy lines.
Marcus, a reconnaissance sergeant, and his boss, Sasha, put the intelligence to devastating use. They formed themselves into small units who hunted and harried Russian columns heading for the capital, Kyiv.
With the speed of their ambushes and their boundless bravado, these small bands of soldiers on reconnaissance missions stopped the Russian invasion in its tracks, then helped force Vladimir Putin’s most westerly forces out altogether.
This was spring 2022, dark days for Ukraine and these men and women gave Ukraine hope.
Two years later many of them are dead. The rest, still in uniform, want out. “We’ll win. We know that. But we are done. Really exhausted. We need a break,” said Marcus last week as he ladled a thin soup cooked in a stove made from an old oil drum into a plastic bowl, near Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. “We have no choice.”
I have known Marcus’s group of reconnaissance soldiers, “rozsvidka” in Ukrainian, for two years reporting on Putin’s invasion for CNN. This week’s sacking of Valerii Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s trusted top general, saw their morale drop to its lowest ebb.
The hope that the exploits of men like Marcus once brought is dying in the “meat grinder” trench war that now grips Ukraine. Marcus’s friends from those early days have been killed near Izium and in Bakhmut, their informal unit is now largely scattered.
Ukraine isn’t losing. But in two years of near constant reporting on the biggest conflict to engulf Europe since the Second World War, its obvious to me that Ukraine needs help now more than ever. There’s a moral imperative that Ukraine should be given what it needs to win. It needs air defences. It needs aircraft. It needs long-range rocket systems. It needs ammunition.

Russia measures success in Ukraine through the destabilisation it achieves. Outright victory for Putin is unlikely but looming interference in the Baltics, Moldova and even Poland will follow. Strategically, Britain and the rest of Europe is in peril.
The spine of Russia’s invasion, the curved front line that snakes through eastern Ukraine needs snapping. There are many actions the leadership in Kyiv can do to advance this aim, but, speaking with troops on the ground, a reshuffle of generals does not seem to be one of them.
This week in a café in Sloviansk, about eight miles from the front line, phones pinged. Soldiers stopped guzzling to digest the news Zaluzhny had been fired. “Don’t let it be Syrsky,” muttered a major.
Seconds later more pings confirmed that General Oleksandr Syrsky had been promoted, and appointed commander of the armed forces of Ukraine. “Now, we’re f***ed,” the major chuckled mirthlessly. For President Zelensky to remove the nation’s top general at this moment seemed bizarre to these men.
Syrsky is nicknamed “General cannon fodder” by the more disaffected troops, after the huge losses under his command in Bakhmut over the past 18 months. However, he is also credited with masterminding Ukraine’s lightning offensive in the Kharkiv region in autumn 2022, and key decisions in the defence of Kyiv.
“This is not about surnames, and surely not about politics. This is about our army system, about the management of the armed forces of Ukraine, and about involving the experience of this war’s combat-hardened commanders,” Zelensky said during an eight-minute television address to explain his decision.
There is no debate on Ukraine’s front lines that the system needs a shake-up. Russia is throwing vast quantities of troops into efforts to break through in Avdiivka, a coalmining town close to Donetsk city, held by Russia since 2014. Ukrainian troops are holding on. Just.
Locally manufactured FPV attack drones hang on the walls of a platoon headquarters in Avdiivka where troops fighting in the town brace for the relentless assaults. Outside the black mud sucks at their boot in the blasted moonscape of this war.
Inside Marcus is glued to a television screen with a live feed of video of the Russian lines. He is scanning for movements that signal another attack. Marcus, the behind-enemy-lines hero from the early days of the war, tells me the Ukrainian momentum has gone.
Ukrainian soldiers say that the tiny deadly “ready to fly” FPV drone kits they use are almost all purchased privately using money raised by wellwishers. A brigade commander, in charge of about 4,000 Ukrainian troops, told me that his logistics officer “sees very few drones from government supplies”.
Live video feeds in his headquarters show Russian soldiers dashing about in terror chased by the tiny buzzing aircraft.

Kyiv has launched a centralised effort to buy in a million of these makeshift weapons but Russia is harnessing its state assets into developing autonomous AI drones. “There’s no co-ordinated effort to develop new ones … The Russians have the whole state working on that,” insisted a Ukrainian drone unit commander in Kramatorsk.
Zelensky credited a desire to boost the army’s technical capabilities as one of his motivations for dismissing the general, the only public figure polling consistently as more popular than him: “The army’s actions must become much more technologically advanced. The generalship must be reset.”
Now, there is effectively a stalemate with Russia. The much vaunted “summer offensive” from Ukraine last year failed because Zaluzhny or Syrsky — or both — learnt no lessons from the earlier failures of Russian armoured assaults.
Soviet-era tactics used by Russia and baked into the backgrounds of Ukraine’s generals will not work. Syrsky’s call-sign is “snow leopard”. He will need feline guile to navigate the toughest strategic and political conundrum now facing Ukraine — mass mobilisation.
“Most of the young men willing to fight two years ago who volunteered for the front line. Most of them are dead or wounded,” a senior officer told me.
In short — it’s the patriotic and the poor who are fighting and dying for Ukraine. Casualty figures are never released but one commander I’ve known for two years said he’d “lost all of the frontline men I have — twice”.
Soldiers here complain that life for those who desert or refuse to fight is easy and they suffer no serious consequences. They claim dozens of men who’ve been arrested and charged with “cowardice in the face of the enemy” are held at rear bases doing nothing but “eating food and smoking cigarettes”.
In Sloviansk I met a woman whose husband shrugged off conscription three times — each for a bribe of $1,000 (£790) to a conscription officer. Meanwhile, ski resorts and bars in western Ukraine are heaving with young men. In the safety of the West, it is hard to be too critical of these men, but serving soldiers do not hold back.
Zelensky has been unconvinced by the forces’ request for half a million more recruits made in December. But if there is anything I have learnt, from my recent weeks near the front it is that the romance of the early swashbuckling defence is over. Zelensky must understand that.
Defeating Russia, as General Zaluzhny pointed out before he got sacked, takes soldiers. Lots of them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/replacing-ukraines-popular-army-chief-is-big-gamble-zelenskiy-2024-02-09/

"This is a risky decision, first of all, because the changes that are to take place are happening in an extremely complex environment and this may complicate the management of the troops," Serhiy Zgurets, director of the Kyiv-based Defence Express consultancy, told Reuters.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a Kyiv-based political analyst, predicted the removal of Zaluzhnyi would hurt Zelenskiy's ratings because of the general's broad popularity.
Zaluzhnyi's stock soared during the first two years of the war. An opinion poll in December showed he had a significantly larger share of the public's trust than Zelenskiy himself.
Zaluzhnyi's image has been spray-painted on walls around the country to mark Ukrainian battlefield victories, and after Thursday's announcement that he was out of the top military post, messages of support for him flooded social media.
"There are a lot of dissatisfied people and the degree of emotions is quite high. Theoretically some protests are possible, but most likely it will not happen, taking into account the factor of war," Fesenko told Reuters.
The full-scale invasion that began on Feb. 24, 2022 prompted Ukraine to introduce martial law, which rules out the possibility of holding elections. Presidential elections were due to take place next month, but with the war raging on it is unclear when they will take place.
Fesenko said that by removing Zaluzhnyi, Zelenskiy had essentially made the general a potential rival at future elections. He predicted that a broad political coalition would start to form around him.
Zgurets said any failures at the front, though caused by long-standing factors such as the ammunition shortage or troop fatigue, could come to be blamed on Syrskyi.
That in turn could open up the way for the criticism of the shakeup as "irrational and wrong", he said.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 11, 2024

Fate of Avdiivka uncertain as Ukrainian forces defending it struggle with fortifications, resources

Editor's note: The full names of the soldiers introduced in the story are not disclosed due to security concerns amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. DONETSK OBLAST – As artillery began pounding the cold-hardened ground ahead of them, two Ukrainian soldiers listened warily to shell impacts creep...

kyivindependent.com

The account of Oleksandr, a soldier with an anti-tank platoon of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, matches other testimony that there are almost no fortified positions on the very front line near Avdiivka – further threatening the lives of those tasked with defending the city.

Many infantrymen and other soldiers deployed on the first line of defense have complained that their positions – often just holes like the one described by Oleksandr – appear to have been poorly prepared ahead of the major Russian offensive on Avdiivka. With Russian forces constantly on heavy assault, there is almost no time to build anything more.
The second line of defense, a few kilometers behind the front, is still being built, according to nearly a dozen interviewed soldiers.

While Russia continued to strengthen its defense lines even as it launched an offensive on multiple axes over the winter, Ukraine appears to have done little to prepare for a long attritional battle during its summer counteroffensive.

Given the current intensity of the Russian attacks on front-line positions at Avdiivka, soldiers say they have to make do with what they have.

This puts soldiers’ lives at heightened risk, leaving them without proper protection from Russia’s continuous attacks.

In comments to the Kyiv Independent, the Defense Ministry said that Ukraine has been constructing the fortifications near Avdiivka since 2014 and has been focusing on areas at highest risk since 2022.

However, in November 2023, President Volodymyr Zelensky called for work on fortifying Ukrainian defenses on the major fronts to be accelerated. Ukraine then created a working group to organize the building of second and third defensive lines using private contractors – with the military organizing the first defense line.
All the same, even a well-built trench needs to be constantly maintained, as Russia is using "bulldozer tactics," according to former Ukrainian colonel and military analyst Serhiy Hrabskyi.

Hrabskyi stressed that positions on the first defense line – regardless of how much time was spent on their fortification – could be quickly deformed due to the sheer force of Russia’s firepower.

These are deliberate Russian tactics: pounding Ukrainian positions with artillery and mortar fire so that only small holes are left, and the defense is compromised, the expert said. It would be suicidal for engineering troops to come forward to construct fortifications during active fighting, he added.

But no matter the conditions of the positions, the Ukrainian soldiers say that they are determined to hold the ground for as long as their commanders order them to defend Avdiivka.

"I’m ready, but I don't know if I’ll be there until the end," Oleksandr said as he spoke to the Kyiv Independent, sitting on a bed in a cottage behind the lines where he was based. Tears welling in his eyes, he said he was thinking of his daughter.

Now the situation in Avdiivka, a Ukrainian fortress that was briefly occupied in 2014, is more critical than ever, with Russian forces only a few kilometers away from fully encircling the city.

Ukrainian soldiers – even those defending the city since the beginning of the full-scale war – acknowledged that the fall of Avdiivka seems inevitable, given Russia’s offensive capability that is extremely costly but still effective in the long run.

Rob Lee, a military expert and Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, agrees that "if the flanks collapse too far and the resupply roads come under too much fire, there may be a point where it becomes too difficult or costly to continue holding the city."

"If Russia commits enough resources to Avdiivka and Ukraine runs low on artillery ammunition, Russia may be able to take the city – though likely only at high cost," Lee said.

Many Ukrainian soldiers said they expected Avdiivka to suffer a similar fate to Bakhmut – where Russia eventually nearly encircled the defenders, and cut the supply routes into the city, forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal.

"There are just so many of them (Russian troops), and they are just advancing on quantity," said Vitalii, a night drone pilot with the Skala 425th Assault Battalion. He says he tries not to think about what might happen to the city.

Meanwhile, Major Mykola from the 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade deployed south of Avdiivka said he thought Russia wouldn’t achieve an encirclement of the city, but that Ukraine might withdraw anyway to save its troops.
Observing Russian troop movements from above, Vitalii said he felt that those deployed near Avdiivka were more experienced than the Wagner mercenaries he encountered in the Bakhmut area – with a level of training similar to that of the Ukrainians.

If Russian forces capture the villages of Stepove and Berdychi to the northwest of Avdiivka, the situation in the city would be critical, Vitalii believes. He added that the Russians were working effectively first in small, hard-to-detect groups – followed up by a coordinated assault by larger groups.

Nearly two years into the full-scale war, long-lingering problems – including the lack of preparation of fortifications – are starting to become even more serious.

Along the front line, Ukrainian soldiers complain of severe shortages of ammunition, equipment, troops, and drones.

Compared to the 120 shells allocated to each tank in southern Kherson Oblast during Ukraine’s fall 2022 counteroffensive, for example, tanks are now rationed 15-20 shells each as of December, according to tank crews with the 59th brigade.

A group of soldiers from a Grad 122 mm multiple rocket launcher battery with the 59th also said the ammunition shortage only allows them to shoot one rocket at a time – while their launchers can shoot 40 in one salvo.

"We’re working like regular, barrel artillery right now," soldier Bohdan said. "Instead of 40 (rockets, we’re shooting) one."

Among the most serious issues reported all along the front line is that Ukraine is facing a major personnel shortage – particularly in the infantry.

To reinforce infantry units after heavy losses, Ukraine has transferred soldiers from units specialized in artillery or logistics to infantry positions, according to the soldiers interviewed by the Kyiv Independent. This means soldiers deployed on the first defensive line may not even know the basic survival skills of an infantryman, which results in even more casualties.

Serhii, a 20-year-old artilleryman with the 59th, said that his originally 64-man artillery group had sent 15 men to the front line. He said most of them had been killed in their first days there. He attributes it to the fact they "knew almost nothing" about being in the infantry. Only four out of 15 survived.
A similar way of repurposing soldiers was previously reported by multiple soldiers in the Bakhmut sector, about 50 kilometers (31 miles) north of Avdiivka, during Ukraine’s costly defense of that city last year.

Hrabskyi says that circumstances force Ukrainians to use such "non-standard methods."

"Now (Ukrainian forces) are looking for any opportunity to inflict maximum damage on the enemy and delay its advance, gaining time," Hrabskyi said.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1756810076667421047

Today's updated map shows further Russian advances in Avdiivka. https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.1415/37.7206

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1756777388833145118

Ukraine’s Deep State war monitoring collective says the Russians have built a 30km-long chain of train carriages as one of their defence lines in the area of Volnovakha, south of Donetsk. The Ukrainian counter-offensive never reached it.

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1756737158793064715

1/9
RuAF Soldiers Once Again Commit Grave War Crime
Footage reveals them assaulting AFU positions. Two Ukrainian servicemen, unarmed and giving up the fight, emerge from a dugout. Despite attempts to surrender, assault troops open fire and finish them off

themeistersinger · Feb 12, 2024

Putin's War, Week 102. Zaluzhny Is Out, Syrsky Is In, and the Ukraine Aid Bill Advances

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/02/12/putins-war-week-102-n2169608

Don't Toews Me · Feb 12, 2024

Ukraine May Have Deployed One Its Best Brigades To Try To Save Avdiivka

The 3rd Assault Brigade was the only Ukrainian ground-combat brigade that we know for sure was in reserve in eastern Ukraine as of last week.

www.forbes.com

Ukraine is reinforcing Avdiivka. And there are good reasons to believe it’s bolstering the eastern city—current the locus of Russia’s winter offensive—with one of the best brigades in the Ukrainian army.
The 3rd Assault Brigade. The only Ukrainian ground-combat brigade that we know for sure was in reserve in eastern Ukraine as of last week.
Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of the Tavriya group of forces in Avdiivka, announced the reinforcement on Telegram on Saturday. “We strengthen the blocking line, set up additional firing positions and use fresh effective forces,” Tarnavskyi wrote. “Logistical delivery continues.”
That the Ukrainians would reinforce Avdiivka was not a foregone conclusion. In apparently choosing to stay and fight, Ukrainian forces are accepting enormous risk.
After four months of hard fighting, Russian troops from the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies finally breached Avdiivka—a key Ukrainian stronghold just five miles northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk—earlier this month and approached within a few hundred yards of the main road by which the Ukrainian garrison, centered on the 110th Mechanized Brigade, gets supplies into the city.
At that point, Tarnavskyi had two options. Pull back the 110th Brigade’s survivors from the exposed eastern part of the city and consolidate the Ukrainian line in central Avdiivka or just outside the city, to the west.
Or: reinforce the 110th Brigade and try to push the much larger Russian force away from the garrison’s supply lines.
It’s possible it wasn’t Tarnavskyi’s decision to make.
Last week, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky removed his popular top general, the charismatic Valery Zaluzhny, and replaced him with the unpopular former head of the ground forces, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Zaluzhny has a reputation—deserved or not—for embracing a mobile defense in order to minimize Ukrainian casualties. Syrskyi by contrast has a reputation—again, deserved or not—for accepting high casualties in stubborn, static fights.
It’s possible that, in promoting Syrskyi, Zelensky signaled his intention to fight for Avdiivka. Even at high cost.

https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1757074493099462920

We now have public confirmation from the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Examinations (KNDISE) that the wreckage recovered following the 7 FEB 2023 and 30 DEC 2022 raids are in fact from 3M22 Tsirkon, a Russian hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile system.
This is the first operational employment of a hypersonic cruise missile system. These missiles were likely drawn from Northern or Pacific Fleet stock. It indicates that vessels of the Black Sea Fleet have received Tsirkon integration, likely the Admiral Grigorovichs or Buyan-Ms

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1757020228121223597

Norway's new annual intel assessment. "Norway is facing a more serious threat environment now than it has in decades. As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, Russia is about to gain the military upper hand. [Its] mil industry is running at full steam"
"Russia still relies on Western technology to maintain and develop some of its military capabilities, including components and spare parts for maintenance of systems that Russia bought from the West before the invasion."
"reclaiming the initiative in the war would require large-scale Western arms support, including new capabilities. Ukraine is in dire need of ammunition, long-range weapons systems, air defence, combat vehicles and combat aircraft."

Military intelligence: Iran, Hezbollah train Russian drone operators in Syria

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Tehran-backed militant group based in Lebanon are reportedly carrying out the instruction at the Shayrat Airbase.

news.yahoo.com

Iran and Hezbollah are training Russian drone operators in Syria for deployment in Ukraine, the Ukrainian military intelligence agency (HUR) said on Feb. 12.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Tehran-backed militant group based in Lebanon are reportedly carrying out the instruction at the Shayrat Airbase.

Russia, Iran, and Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria have been cooperating extensively on both military and political levels, presenting a challenge to both Ukraine and the West.

The training course includes mastering systems like Shahed-136 "kamikaze" drones or Ababil-3 drones, the intelligence agency said.

Russia has been extensively importing Iranian Shahed drones and making domestic copies for attacks against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Ababil drones, another unmanned system developed by Iran, can be used for both reconnaissance and combat purposes.
According to the intelligence agency, the instruction is headed by a Hezbollah commander, Kamal Abu Sadiq, who specializes in the manufacture and maintenance of drones.

The training is allegedly provided not only to Russian personnel but also to Syrian mercenaries whom Moscow supposedly plans to deploy in Ukraine as drone operators.

themeistersinger · Feb 13, 2024

Russia Closes In on Avdiivka as Western Aid for Kyiv Falters, War of Attrition Grinds On

Russia Closes In on Avdiivka as Western Aid for Kyiv Falters, War of Attrition Grinds On - The Moscow Times

Russia’s nearly two-year war in Ukraine is likely to continue as a drawn-out war of attrition in 2024, with neither side expected to make major territorial gains, military analysts have told The Moscow Times.

www.themoscowtimes.com

The Z Machine · Feb 13, 2024

SOOOOOOOOO stupid that the US cannot get out of our own way to provide further military aid for Ukraine. Also ridiculous that the EU hasn't come close to meeting the goals for artillery shells. Failures of western democracies.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 13, 2024

Exhausted Ukraine struggles to find new men for front line

Two years into the war, there is no flood of volunteer fighters as energy and enthusiasm fades.

www.bbc.com

When Pavlo Zhilin and his patrol hit the streets of Cherkasy, men often swerve to avoid them.
Pavlo is a conscription officer looking for soldiers for Ukraine's army.
But almost two years into Russia's full-scale invasion, there's no flood of volunteers to the front line anymore.
Most of those who wanted to fight are either dead, injured or still stuck at the front waiting to be relieved by new recruits.
In the central town of Cherkasy, like elsewhere, finding them isn't easy now that the first burst of enthusiasm and energy has faded.
Ukraine is exhausted.
"I don't get it. People are out and about, like the war is somewhere far away. But this is a full-scale invasion, and it's like people still don't care," Pavlo says.
He is frustrated by what he sees as indifference.
"We need everyone to come together like they did on the first day. Everyone was united then, like brothers."
Instead, the security service in Cherkasy is constantly shutting down local social media channels that warn people when the conscription teams are in town and alert them to areas to avoid.
At 24, Pavlo has sacrificed a lot for his country.
He grew up dreaming of being a soldier - his eyes light up when he remembers that - and he was serving in the army in February 2022 when Russian troops rolled across the border.
He fought near Kyiv, then Soledar in the eastern Donbas, where the battle was brutal. That first summer, he was moved to Bakhmut.
"We came under heavy fire. A shell landed next to me. I lost my whole elbow. There was nothing left," he says, describing an attack in which he was badly injured.
He managed to crawl beneath a bush and he began to pray.
The soldier admits that getting to hospital was a huge relief: not just because he'd survived, but because he was finally off the front line. "It was hard there. I can't even put it into words."
He looks down and falls quiet.
Pavlo's injuries were severe. His right arm was amputated below the shoulder, he still feels pain where his limb is missing, and he has shrapnel in his leg. His basic prosthetic gives him limited movement.
But he wanted to go on serving, so he became a conscription officer.
After all he's been through, I wonder whether he understands why other men evade the draft.
"One day, their children will ask what they did during the war, when the men were fighting. When they reply, 'I was hiding,' then they'll plummet in the children's eyes," Pavlo says firmly.
And yet the price Ukraine is paying to defend itself is already immense.
When I ask Pavlo whether he's lost friends in the fighting, he admits that there's "almost no one left" from his entire company.
"The only ones left are [injured] like me. The others are dead."

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1757429150049034747

Ukraine sending reinforcements to Avdiivka, under increasing danger from Russian advances, per spox for the 110th Mechanized Brigade. "We all understand that Putin’s elections will take place in March and they need victory." (some exhausted 110th units also being rotated out).

Equipment losses in Russia’s war on Ukraine mount

As Russia’s losses in its war on Ukraine continue to grow, the IISS assess how long Moscow can sustain its current rate of equipment attrition.

www.iiss.org

Despite intense armoured vehicle losses since Russia launched its unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine about two years ago, there are few signs they will cause an end to the fighting anytime soon. The IISS will publish its assessment of Russian equipment losses on 13 February with the release of The Military Balance 2024. The losses are estimated to include more than 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles in the past year alone and close to 8,800 since February 2022.

Despite losing hundreds of armoured vehicles and artillery pieces per month on average, Russia has been able to keep its active inventory numbers stable. For 2023, we estimate that Russia was able to reactivate at least 1,180 to 1,280 MBTs and around 2,470 IFVs and APCs from storage. On top of that, Moscow was able to manufacture new tanks and other armoured vehicles, though precise numbers are difficult to glean even from satellite images.

Commercial overhead imagery does shed light, though, on Russian equipment in storage that is potentially available for activation or refurbishment to compensate for further battlefield losses. Russia has 10 Central Tank Reserve Bases, at least 37 mixed equipment- and armaments-storage bases, and at least 12 artillery-storage bases. An in-depth assessment by the IISS last year showed equipment replenishments were roughly keeping pace with battlefield attrition.

It is our assessment, therefore, that Russia will be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another 2–3 years, and maybe even longer.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1757334971620995369

Russia intends to double the number of its troops stationed along its border with the Baltic states and Finland as part of preparations for a potential military conflict with Nato within the next decade, according to Estonia’s foreign intelligence service.

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1757450738093949259

Deep State (Ukranian war monitoring collective) says the situation on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar is deteriorating primarily due to poorly prepared Ukrainian defence lines. It’s as if the Russians were never expected to get that far, DS writes.

Don't Toews Me · Feb 13, 2024

Syrskyi in, Zaluzhnyi out: what to expect from Ukraine's army reshuffle

Ukraine's new commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky faces a critical frontline situation, institutional problems, and trust issues

euromaidanpress.com

^This is an incredibly long and interesting read on the decision to replace Zaluzhnyi. Has details in it I have not seen reported elsewhere. Would recommend taking the time out to read (or at least skim) it.

Ukraine’s Pokrova Spoofing System Tells Shaheds To Get Lost (UPDATED)

Pokrova confuses satellite navigation systems, drawing drones away from their targets so even those which evade air defenses are unable to hit strategic targets.

www.forbes.com

Russia’s bombardment of Ukraine with Iranian-designed Shahed drones is unrelenting, with 45 launched on the night of 10-11 Feb and another 14 last night. Over 3,700 Shahed attacks been recorded by December 21 and questions are raised about the Ukraine supply of air defense missiles. Now Ukraine has a new drone shield which does not rely on ammunition: a nationwide electronic warfare system called Pokrova with confuses drone navigation systems.

Shahed drones are well protected against electronic warfare. The current version have the Russian military Kometa-M navigation unit, a digital antenna array allowing it to identify and exclude jamming signals. According to the makers drones with Kometa-M can still find their way when the jamming is tens of thousands of times more powerful than the satellite signal.
The Shahed also has a backup inertial navigation unit or INS. This works even when there is no satellite signal, but drifts rapidly over time. The backup system provides accurate navigation for perhaps one minute – long enough to hit a target protected by a local jammer, or fly through a band of jamming before it can recover a satellite signal.
This combination makes the Shahed difficult to counter with conventional electronic warfare. But Ukrainian engineers have had the opportunity to take apart several Shaheds and work out the vulnerabilities of their navigation system.
“Spoofing might be a way of outflanking counter-countermeasures like jam-resistant receivers,” says Withington.
Spoofing is much harder to detect than jamming. If the spoofing signal is relatively subtle – gradually moving further and further away from the real location – the drone will have no way of telling that it is being spoofed, but will end up some distance from the target.
"We already have the ability to counter this system [Kometa-M]," Ivan Pavlenko, the Chief of the Main Directorate of Electronic Warfare and Cyber Security of the Ukrainian General Staff, stated in September.
The Shahed-136, with its relatively small warhead of about 45 kg/ 100 pounds, needs to strike close to the target to have any effect. Pushing it half a mile away guarantees c complete miss – though it may still damage something.
Russia's multi-million-dollar cruise and ballistic missiles have more advanced navigation systems which do not rely on satellite signals, but the bulk of Russia's attacks now involve Shaheds which are vulnerable.

Zaluzhnyi did not say when Pokrova had been activated, but there may be some clues that it is working.
On February 3rd, the Ukrainian Air Force’s official Telegram channel noted that 11 Shahed had been shot down the previous night, and “In addition, at least seven attack drones did not reach their targets and were lost locally.”
In addition, there have recently been instances where Shaheds have been captured intact and appear to have been brought down with electronic warfare rather than missile or gunfire.
It is impossible to tell how effective Pokrova system is, or just how its spoofs navigation signals. Attacks take place at night, and the jamming will likely only be activated in times and places where drone attacks are taking place. Ukraine does not reveal any details of where Shaheds hit, denying Russia any information how many are finding targets. Russian developers will attempt to detect or counter the spoofing — and the Ukrainians will modify their system to counter the countermeasures. In the mean time, just because a Shahed is not shot down does not mean it hits a target.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1757475261824508372

Oleksandr Syrskyi: "The Russian army is now advancing along the entire front, the situation can be called complicated. The Ukrainian army has shifted from offensive actions to defense, the purpose of which is to inflict maximum losses on the Russian Federation."

The new AFU commander-in-chief called the main value of soldiers' lives, and therefore, according to him, he is "ready to retreat from some position rather than sacrifice all personnel".

*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)

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Key Findings​

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* Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun * (3 Viewers)

Key Findings

Good times!