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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

Let's agree that this has to come to an eventual end, whether the Ukrainians run out of cannon fodder or the West bleeds Russia, at some point someone in the freaking room needs to raise there hand and ask, "can we talk?" Right? Can we agree on that? Or we just fomenting perpetual war on the backs of a country we have no strategic interest in other than to weaken our once...ONCE, rival who is nowhere near the super power they once were? All the while China sits back and giggles while we waste treasury, Russia wastes what will soon be two generations and Ukraine will simply turn into a 4th world Dante's pit of hell when it's all said and done. I don't want to get into fight over this but does no one but me see the futility of this?
That someone in the room need to be Ukrainian or Russian, not someone from another non-combatant nation.

I disagree that we are wasting our treasury on this. It is likely to result in an increase in defense procurement, but again most of the materiel donated to Ukraine have been gear that the US isn't going to use or need any time soon.
You can feign that this is a Ukraine-Russia thing without US/NATO involvement but you're just putting your head in the sand IMO. All three need to be in the room to get this resolved.

To your second comment, well, Eisenhower was right is all I have to say.

if America truly desires to stop the military industrial complex it had best be ready for a bunch of changes that they probably won't like.
Stop? no. Quit allowing them to dictate the shape of our economy and thus lobby for the US to ever expand it's militaristic tendencies? yea.

The implication from your statement is twofold: 1.) that US would suffer in the world by not continuing it's weapons trade with NATO and all our partners, presumably from a perception standpoint. Meaning the US would be looked down upon, not as strong, maybe no longer a super power and/or 2.) the economic impact the shrinking of the military industries would have on the US as a whole. Tell me if I'm reading it wrong and apologies if I am.
 
Cut Ukraine off and let Russia overrun the country? That's way worse, IMO, for a ton of reasons, most of which Z Machine points out
I don't think you're going to bring Russia to heal by continually dumping arms into Ukraine and as I pointed out above, you are going to run out of Ukrainians long before Russia runs out of Russians, then what? Are signing up to put US boots on the ground then? I'm not.

Fully on board with cutting the deficit in other ways as well BUT this endless stream of cash going to a bottomless pit has to have an end game, that's what I'm asking, what does that look like? And if we are so hell bent on bringing Mother Russia to heal, why not sit down with them to discuss peace? As you said, gaining back land lost is a non-starter so negotiate a peace where the borders are as is today. We're not even hinting at something like that right now, why?

as long as Ukraine is willing to fight we should support them. we literally have thousands of abrams, bradleys, etc rusting after usmc switched tactics. use them.

no us troops on the ground.
The Sierra Army Depot has 20K+ armored vehicles just sitting there in storage and the 309th Boneyard has around 4K aircraft.

Spend the money, prep them and ship them over. Ukraine will happily accept. Our crap that we have retired for 20 years and in storage is on par with most of what the Russians are using.

As for the Russians running out of Russians before the Ukrainians run out of Ukrainians... sure, but at some point the economy and the loss of Russians will result in real pressure or even regime change internally in Russia. The killing of Navalny has already helped bring together the numerous fractured opposition parties to basically work together or they know they will end up falling out of a window in a high rise.
 
I want to preface this with its simply my opinion. I also want to preface this with I'm a disabled veteran with two combat ribbons and not some Internet warrior who claims to understand war by quoting the latest warfare book they have read.

Wars sucks.

Wars that are not ours to fight suck.

Proxy wars that cost us more money then we put into border protection of this wonderful country suck the most.
 
Let's agree that this has to come to an eventual end, whether the Ukrainians run out of cannon fodder or the West bleeds Russia, at some point someone in the freaking room needs to raise there hand and ask, "can we talk?" Right? Can we agree on that? Or we just fomenting perpetual war on the backs of a country we have no strategic interest in other than to weaken our once...ONCE, rival who is nowhere near the super power they once were? All the while China sits back and giggles while we waste treasury, Russia wastes what will soon be two generations and Ukraine will simply turn into a 4th world Dante's pit of hell when it's all said and done. I don't want to get into fight over this but does no one but me see the futility of this?
That someone in the room need to be Ukrainian or Russian, not someone from another non-combatant nation.

I disagree that we are wasting our treasury on this. It is likely to result in an increase in defense procurement, but again most of the materiel donated to Ukraine have been gear that the US isn't going to use or need any time soon.
You can feign that this is a Ukraine-Russia thing without US/NATO involvement but you're just putting your head in the sand IMO. All three need to be in the room to get this resolved.

To your second comment, well, Eisenhower was right is all I have to say.

if America truly desires to stop the military industrial complex it had best be ready for a bunch of changes that they probably won't like.
Stop? no. Quit allowing them to dictate the shape of our economy and thus lobby for the US to ever expand it's militaristic tendencies? yea.

The implication from your statement is twofold: 1.) that US would suffer in the world by not continuing it's weapons trade with NATO and all our partners, presumably from a perception standpoint. Meaning the US would be looked down upon, not as strong, maybe no longer a super power and/or 2.) the economic impact the shrinking of the military industries would have on the US as a whole. Tell me if I'm reading it wrong and apologies if I am.

the shape of our economy? military is what, 4% of the gdp. i think you are over exaggerating the military importance on the economy. Now back in the 60s when military was 10% of the gdp, sure. but i would challenge you on that current impact.

You like free trade? You think russia or china will ensure that if we become just a regional power like UK or France? You want Russia or China to have better nuclear capability than us?

You think dollar will remain the primary currency if russia/china are the primary players in opec/etc?

numerous technologies that have come from or been improved by military spending.
 
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I want to preface this with its simply my opinion. I also want to preface this with I'm a disabled veteran with two combat ribbons and not some Internet warrior who claims to understand war by quoting the latest warfare book they have read.

Wars sucks.

Wars that are not ours to fight suck.

Proxy wars that cost us more money then we put into border protection of this wonderful country suck the most.
This isn't a situation where we only can do one thing. And I'm in favor of securing the border, unfortunately senate killed the bipartisan bill.
 
Relatedly, we should not be giving Israel any materiel. They should pay for all of it. The situations should not be linked in any way.
Agree that the two shouldn't be related but what's the reasoning behind asking Israel to pay? Curious, not trying to stir pots.
Ukraine got invaded and occupied by a foreign power who has devastated their economy and infrastructure. Israel had a series of horrific terrorists acts perpetrated against them and their people. Their economy and infrastructure are intact. Israel has the ability to pay for its weapons; Ukraine does not.

I am not saying that Isreal does not have the right to defend itself from terrorists (even if I think their actions in Gaza are too much, but that's a different topic). It's really about which of our allies can afford the bombs and which cannot.
 
Relatedly, we should not be giving Israel any materiel. They should pay for all of it. The situations should not be linked in any way.
Agree that the two shouldn't be related but what's the reasoning behind asking Israel to pay? Curious, not trying to stir pots.
Ukraine got invaded and occupied by a foreign power who has devastated their economy and infrastructure. Israel had a series of horrific terrorists acts perpetrated against them and their people. Their economy and infrastructure are intact. Israel has the ability to pay for its weapons; Ukraine does not.

I am not saying that Isreal does not have the right to defend itself from terrorists (even if I think their actions in Gaza are too much, but that's a different topic). It's really about which of our allies can afford the bombs and which cannot.
Good post. i will say the other big difference, and I'm really against giving actually money to either, is that at least with Israel, if we get into our own war we can expect military support. Sometimes repayment of support comes in different ways. During the Iraq war we requested use of Turkey territory for US forces and they told us to F off. We used Kuwait instead. Maybe Ukraine can be our Kuwait down the road? Maybe, but every penny we give Ukraine we get zero in return. It's just bad business when your business is already bleeding money. All my opinion and I reserve the right to change this opinion at any moment.
 
Guys, the politics forum ended. Just want to remind both our old and new members that in order to keep this thread, we need to keep our political opinions to ourselves. No matter how benign the discussion, I don't want to see it shut down because of opinions about military spending.

Thank you for your service, FarFromHome. We need more like you.
 

New assessments of Russia’s military capabilities and its threats to Nato’s security have led to a rising drumbeat of warnings from western governments and pressure to invest more heavily in defence.
“We are living in truly dangerous times [and] at a point when large-scale conflict is more likely than it has been in recent history,” said a British military intelligence official.
Russia’s bellicose “intent is still there”, said a second UK defence official. “Its land forces have been degraded in Ukraine, but its air force and navy are largely intact, and Russia is still a major nuclear power.”
That warning hangs over the Munich Security Conference which starts on Friday, an annual gathering of security, military and intelligence officials and experts that provides a snapshot of the global defence picture at a time of record instability.
One reason for western officials’ alarm is Russia’s revival of its industrial defence machine over the past year, which took place at a speed many in the west had thought impossible.
Russia churned out 4mn artillery shells and several hundred tanks during the year. It will recruit another 400,000 men this year without resorting to full-scale mobilisation, Ukrainian officials forecast.

Other western defence officials in recent weeks have issued an unprecedented number of public warnings of the possibility of a broader conflict in Europe with a more confident and rearmed Russia.
Denmark’s defence minister Troels Lund Poulsen said last week that Russia could test Nato’s mutual defence clause “within a three to five-year period”. That followed similar warnings from colleagues from Sweden, the UK, Romania, Germany and senior officials at Nato itself since the start of the year.
“We’re going to have to get used to the idea that it’s realistic that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will [attack a Nato country within 5-8 years],” said Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the Bundestag defence committee. “The man is driven by a kind of imperialism we never believed could exist in the 21st century.”
“It is a credible threat, and we need to be prepared for that,” said one senior Nato diplomat of the warnings of a potential Russian attack on an alliance member. “I do not find such predictions fantasy . . . We do not have the luxury to think that Russia would stop in Ukraine.”
One senior European official went as far as saying that Russia’s “intent and capability” to attack a Nato country before the end of the decade was “pretty much consensus” within the US-led military alliance. “Opportunity is the only variable,” the official said.

A senior Ukrainian official said Kyiv had “strong intelligence” that Putin was making preparations for war against the Baltic states. “Putin just cannot stop.”
However, some members of the alliance are sceptical that Russia’s president intends to attack a Nato member. “We assess that he takes our Article 5 commitment seriously and does not want to go to war with Nato,” said one senior US defence official.


“While Russia’s army is heavily deployed in Ukraine and has suffered huge losses during two years of conflict, most western officials expect that it would be able to reconstitute its forces within five to six years.”


Ukrianian intelligence officials have also told me this. They are worried that Russia’s military will return to pre-2022 invasion levels by 2028.


Gen. Tarnavsky paints a dire picture in Avdiivka, where situation fast going bad to worse. Several Ukrainian troops captured; outmanned & outgunned. “The enemy continues to inflict artillery fire & massive bombardments, practically wiping the city from the face of the earth.”

Tarnavsky: “The enemy is throwing all reserves at the assault.” Russian forces have great number of personnel, artillery and aviation and are overpowering Ukraine troops, he says. Ukrainians maneuvering out of destroyed positions, entrenching themselves on new lines of defense.
Gen. Tarnavsky says “priority is to save the lives of our soldiers…Unfortunately, during one of these sorties, several of our soldiers were captured… Evacuation of the wounded is complicated by continuous shelling, but is being carried out.”


This is a critical moment. Given Russia's manpower and resource advantages, Ukrainian units being encircled or taking heavy losses in a withdrawal could have a significant effect on the war. The relative resources expended in this battle will likely be the most important factor.

It could also have a serious negative effect on morale and future mobilization, which is exacerbated by the lack of and uncertainty over future US aid. Unlike during the battle of Bakhmut last year, Ukraine does not have the same reserve of new units being formed. 2/
The battle of Bakhmut became more costly when Wagner forces closed within direct fire range of the MSRs leading into the city. The problem is worse now because FPVs can threaten targets at much greater ranges than ATGMs, and they will make a withdrawal more dangerous. 3/


The big questions now are how costly the withdrawal will be, and the quality of the next defensive line. Several sources have noted the lack of a well-prepared defense-in-depth outside of Avdiivka, and Russia has reserves, which it will likely commit for exploitation.


Twice as many Russian units as Ukrainian forces are in Donetsk Oblast, a crucial observation from the OSINT organization Rochan Consulting, shared by @konrad_muzyka. This supports yesterday's analysis, affirming Russia's significant numerical advantage in personnel and vehicles.

Video from earlier today: https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1758561556726448213

Grim video of soldiers from Ukraine's 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, holed up in a basement in the Avdiivka Coke/Chemical Plant. Russian troops are already reported in the city center.

Video: https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1758636068730200202

#Ukraine, Donetsk front, Avdiivka sector. 16.02.2024.

A video has emerged on Friday showing Russian soldiers raising their flags at the Soviet war memorial located in the Railwaymen's Park in Avdiivka, confirming further Russian advance into the town.

📍48.150000, 37.735833
 
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The U.S. plans to train 12 Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s this fiscal year, said an Air National Guard official, providing new details about the high-profile program.

Eight of those pilots are currently undergoing training, Air National Guard officials say. Four more are also set to be trained before the end of fiscal 2024, Capt. Erin Hannigan of the Arizona National Guard added.


Ukraine has long appealed for F-16s to augment its small fleet of Soviet-era planes as it strives to hold the line against Russian forces in what has become a bloody war of attrition. The U.S.-made planes would be superior to the aircraft the Ukrainians have been flying and would also enable Ukraine’s air force to employ Western-supplied munitions more efficiently, U.S. officials say.

Last year, the U.S. and western European nations began parallel programs to train pilots and maintainers, which is being coordinated by an air force capability coalition that Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United States are co-chairing.

“It is very much a standardized training program that multiple countries are participating in to include the United States with training here in the United States, and English language training that precedes the tactical training,” a senior defense official said Feb. 16.

The U.S. and its European allies have yet to spell out when all of the planes would be deployed in Ukraine and the total number of pilots that will be trained. The U.S. and its allies also have not provided plans on what munitions the F-16s would employ.

The 162nd Wing of the Arizona Air National Guard is providing the pilot training in the U.S.

“The training is going great,” Air National Guard Director Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh told Air & Space Forces Magazine in an interview at the AFA Warfare Symposium. “They’re flying F-16s solo every day.”

At first, four Ukrainian pilots were being trained. But then a new batch of four pilots arrived in late January. Funding to train up to 12 pilots remains despite a $95 billion defense supplemental bill with funds for military aid to Ukraine that remains stalled in Congress, Hannigan said, as the money for the tuition-based F-16 training was already allocated.

The pilot training is expected to be completed between May and August, Hannigan said. That is longer timeframe than the Pentagon and the Air National Guard initially suggested in the fall when the first pilots began training in October.


Sweden is open to providing Ukraine with modern fighter jets, but the Nordic country first needs a full-fledged NATO membership, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson told the Kyiv Independent during an interview on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 16.

As Ukraine seeks to bolster its Air Force with modern Western jets, Ukrainian officials have shown interest in Swedish-made Saab JAS 39 Gripen aircraft. Stockholm has previously said it would consider supplying Gripens to Ukraine only once the Nordic country enters NATO.


"For us to make a decision, we have to be full-fledged members of NATO and be part of Article 5. This is also a decision that has to be done in collaboration with others," Jonson told a Kyiv Independent reporter.

"Ukraine needs fourth-generation and fifth-generation fighter aircraft. If we, one way or another, can help you (Ukraine), we are open to that," the minister said.

Jonson pointed out that allied efforts are currently focused on supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. Countries like the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway have pledged to donate some of their F-16s to Ukraine.

"But if we can assist in any way, we are glad to look into it as well."
 
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Relatedly, we should not be giving Israel any materiel. They should pay for all of it. The situations should not be linked in any way.
Agree that the two shouldn't be related but what's the reasoning behind asking Israel to pay? Curious, not trying to stir pots.
Ukraine got invaded and occupied by a foreign power who has devastated their economy and infrastructure. Israel had a series of horrific terrorists acts perpetrated against them and their people. Their economy and infrastructure are intact. Israel has the ability to pay for its weapons; Ukraine does not.

I am not saying that Isreal does not have the right to defend itself from terrorists (even if I think their actions in Gaza are too much, but that's a different topic). It's really about which of our allies can afford the bombs and which cannot.
Good post. i will say the other big difference, and I'm really against giving actually money to either, is that at least with Israel, if we get into our own war we can expect military support. Sometimes repayment of support comes in different ways. During the Iraq war we requested use of Turkey territory for US forces and they told us to F off. We used Kuwait instead. Maybe Ukraine can be our Kuwait down the road? Maybe, but every penny we give Ukraine we get zero in return. It's just bad business when your business is already bleeding money. All my opinion and I reserve the right to change this opinion at any moment.
I'm not so sure we could count on israel to really help us. all of IDF is focused on their region and doesn't project outside of that, and they wouldn't contribute much to anything for fear of the arab countries attacking them in response.

it's not we aren't going to get a penny back analogy. Think of it more as, spend a penny now or possibly spend dollars and American lives at a later date.
 

The U.S. plans to train 12 Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s this fiscal year, said an Air National Guard official, providing new details about the high-profile program.

Eight of those pilots are currently undergoing training, Air National Guard officials say. Four more are also set to be trained before the end of fiscal 2024, Capt. Erin Hannigan of the Arizona National Guard added.


Ukraine has long appealed for F-16s to augment its small fleet of Soviet-era planes as it strives to hold the line against Russian forces in what has become a bloody war of attrition. The U.S.-made planes would be superior to the aircraft the Ukrainians have been flying and would also enable Ukraine’s air force to employ Western-supplied munitions more efficiently, U.S. officials say.

Last year, the U.S. and western European nations began parallel programs to train pilots and maintainers, which is being coordinated by an air force capability coalition that Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United States are co-chairing.

“It is very much a standardized training program that multiple countries are participating in to include the United States with training here in the United States, and English language training that precedes the tactical training,” a senior defense official said Feb. 16.

The U.S. and its European allies have yet to spell out when all of the planes would be deployed in Ukraine and the total number of pilots that will be trained. The U.S. and its allies also have not provided plans on what munitions the F-16s would employ.

The 162nd Wing of the Arizona Air National Guard is providing the pilot training in the U.S.

“The training is going great,” Air National Guard Director Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh told Air & Space Forces Magazine in an interview at the AFA Warfare Symposium. “They’re flying F-16s solo every day.”

At first, four Ukrainian pilots were being trained. But then a new batch of four pilots arrived in late January. Funding to train up to 12 pilots remains despite a $95 billion defense supplemental bill with funds for military aid to Ukraine that remains stalled in Congress, Hannigan said, as the money for the tuition-based F-16 training was already allocated.

The pilot training is expected to be completed between May and August, Hannigan said. That is longer timeframe than the Pentagon and the Air National Guard initially suggested in the fall when the first pilots began training in October.


Sweden is open to providing Ukraine with modern fighter jets, but the Nordic country first needs a full-fledged NATO membership, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson told the Kyiv Independent during an interview on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 16.

As Ukraine seeks to bolster its Air Force with modern Western jets, Ukrainian officials have shown interest in Swedish-made Saab JAS 39 Gripen aircraft. Stockholm has previously said it would consider supplying Gripens to Ukraine only once the Nordic country enters NATO.


"For us to make a decision, we have to be full-fledged members of NATO and be part of Article 5. This is also a decision that has to be done in collaboration with others," Jonson told a Kyiv Independent reporter.

"Ukraine needs fourth-generation and fifth-generation fighter aircraft. If we, one way or another, can help you (Ukraine), we are open to that," the minister said.

Jonson pointed out that allied efforts are currently focused on supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. Countries like the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway have pledged to donate some of their F-16s to Ukraine.

"But if we can assist in any way, we are glad to look into it as well."
Hungary needs to hurry the hell up
 
Relatedly, we should not be giving Israel any materiel. They should pay for all of it. The situations should not be linked in any way.
Agree that the two shouldn't be related but what's the reasoning behind asking Israel to pay? Curious, not trying to stir pots.
Ukraine got invaded and occupied by a foreign power who has devastated their economy and infrastructure. Israel had a series of horrific terrorists acts perpetrated against them and their people. Their economy and infrastructure are intact. Israel has the ability to pay for its weapons; Ukraine does not.

I am not saying that Isreal does not have the right to defend itself from terrorists (even if I think their actions in Gaza are too much, but that's a different topic). It's really about which of our allies can afford the bombs and which cannot.
Good post. i will say the other big difference, and I'm really against giving actually money to either, is that at least with Israel, if we get into our own war we can expect military support. Sometimes repayment of support comes in different ways. During the Iraq war we requested use of Turkey territory for US forces and they told us to F off. We used Kuwait instead. Maybe Ukraine can be our Kuwait down the road? Maybe, but every penny we give Ukraine we get zero in return. It's just bad business when your business is already bleeding money. All my opinion and I reserve the right to change this opinion at any moment.
I'm not so sure we could count on israel to really help us. all of IDF is focused on their region and doesn't project outside of that, and they wouldn't contribute much to anything for fear of the arab countries attacking them in response.

it's not we aren't going to get a penny back analogy. Think of it more as, spend a penny now or possibly spend dollars and American lives at a later date.
Pretty much the only military on earth that can truly project power is ours.
 
Relatedly, we should not be giving Israel any materiel. They should pay for all of it. The situations should not be linked in any way.
Agree that the two shouldn't be related but what's the reasoning behind asking Israel to pay? Curious, not trying to stir pots.
Ukraine got invaded and occupied by a foreign power who has devastated their economy and infrastructure. Israel had a series of horrific terrorists acts perpetrated against them and their people. Their economy and infrastructure are intact. Israel has the ability to pay for its weapons; Ukraine does not.

I am not saying that Isreal does not have the right to defend itself from terrorists (even if I think their actions in Gaza are too much, but that's a different topic). It's really about which of our allies can afford the bombs and which cannot.
Good post. i will say the other big difference, and I'm really against giving actually money to either, is that at least with Israel, if we get into our own war we can expect military support. Sometimes repayment of support comes in different ways. During the Iraq war we requested use of Turkey territory for US forces and they told us to F off. We used Kuwait instead. Maybe Ukraine can be our Kuwait down the road? Maybe, but every penny we give Ukraine we get zero in return. It's just bad business when your business is already bleeding money. All my opinion and I reserve the right to change this opinion at any moment.
I'm not so sure we could count on israel to really help us. all of IDF is focused on their region and doesn't project outside of that, and they wouldn't contribute much to anything for fear of the arab countries attacking them in response.

it's not we aren't going to get a penny back analogy. Think of it more as, spend a penny now or possibly spend dollars and American lives at a later date.
Pretty much the only military on earth that can truly project power is ours.
won't disagree although some could if desired, but that doesn't really change my stance on Israel supporting us as farfromhome originally stated.
 
Relatedly, we should not be giving Israel any materiel. They should pay for all of it. The situations should not be linked in any way.
Agree that the two shouldn't be related but what's the reasoning behind asking Israel to pay? Curious, not trying to stir pots.
Ukraine got invaded and occupied by a foreign power who has devastated their economy and infrastructure. Israel had a series of horrific terrorists acts perpetrated against them and their people. Their economy and infrastructure are intact. Israel has the ability to pay for its weapons; Ukraine does not.

I am not saying that Isreal does not have the right to defend itself from terrorists (even if I think their actions in Gaza are too much, but that's a different topic). It's really about which of our allies can afford the bombs and which cannot.
No, it's not. It is more about bilateral legal defense arrangements than any "affordability" narrative.

And to be clear, Israel is an ally. Ukraine is not.

- Israel has been designated as a U.S. Major Non-NATO Ally under U.S. law.

- The United States and Israel have signed multiple bilateral defense cooperation agreements, to include: a Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement (1952); a General Security of Information Agreement (1982); a Mutual Logistics Support Agreement (1991); and a Status of Forces Agreement (1994).

- According to the State Dept, Ukraine is a "key strategic partner" and "urgent security assistance priority." But there are no binding legal defense agreements.


 
It's been over two years since the war started. I pray for the innocent victims of this war, the people displaced by it, and the lives lost in fighting it. Every day seems to see darkness seeping into previous points of unsteady light. If our time on earth is a test, let those courageous souls on the right side—or even the compelled side—of the battle be rewarded with having their suffering ended or eased. Such a tragic loss of life and property shocks the conscience. In the name of what? Of abstract notions of empire? Of former borders?

Surely this cannot stand if justice is paramount.

I pray.
 
I would like for the US to put that money to use at home instead of some foreign country we’re not even allies with really. What’s our debt now? Just print more money? Yes, that’s the answer.
 
Relatedly, we should not be giving Israel any materiel. They should pay for all of it. The situations should not be linked in any way.
Agree that the two shouldn't be related but what's the reasoning behind asking Israel to pay? Curious, not trying to stir pots.
Ukraine got invaded and occupied by a foreign power who has devastated their economy and infrastructure. Israel had a series of horrific terrorists acts perpetrated against them and their people. Their economy and infrastructure are intact. Israel has the ability to pay for its weapons; Ukraine does not.

I am not saying that Isreal does not have the right to defend itself from terrorists (even if I think their actions in Gaza are too much, but that's a different topic). It's really about which of our allies can afford the bombs and which cannot.
Good post. i will say the other big difference, and I'm really against giving actually money to either, is that at least with Israel, if we get into our own war we can expect military support. Sometimes repayment of support comes in different ways. During the Iraq war we requested use of Turkey territory for US forces and they told us to F off. We used Kuwait instead. Maybe Ukraine can be our Kuwait down the road? Maybe, but every penny we give Ukraine we get zero in return. It's just bad business when your business is already bleeding money. All my opinion and I reserve the right to change this opinion at any moment.
I'm not so sure we could count on israel to really help us. all of IDF is focused on their region and doesn't project outside of that, and they wouldn't contribute much to anything for fear of the arab countries attacking them in response.

it's not we aren't going to get a penny back analogy. Think of it more as, spend a penny now or possibly spend dollars and American lives at a later date.
Pretty much the only military on earth that can truly project power is ours.
won't disagree although some could if desired, but that doesn't really change my stance on Israel supporting us as farfromhome originally stated.
I will say support is way more then simply boots on the ground or willingness to provide firepower. As a non NATO ally our relationship with Israel has provided a lot of fruit. It's help shape our counter terrorism program in the the region. It's provided a partner in new military technology. Example is David's Sling defense system. American companies set up shop in the country for military R and D development. They are an ally that gives and doesn't just take.
 
I would like for the US to put that money to use at home instead of some foreign country we’re not even allies with really. What’s our debt now? Just print more money? Yes, that’s the answer.
Really the foundation of my opinion and stance. Once again. War sucks.
 

Updated map from Deepstate. Aside from the withdrawal from the city, it shows Russian gains into the Coke Plant and gray zone going beyond the plant.


Big explosion in Kharkiv just now, not far off the centre. Felt the air pressure ripple and everything. Ukraine's second city still targeted regularly by Russian missiles even in broad daylight.


From a soldier with Ukraine's 110th Brigade. He talks about problems with a lack of rotation, heavy attrition, shortage of soldiers, difficulty moving at night, chronic health issues + 40-45 average of age of soldiers, and few remaining fortifications.

Video: https://twitter.com/IKoshiw/status/1758799948986954019

Ukraine's retreat from Avdiivka, where troops said they were up against 7 Russian brigades, outnumbered 1 to 15. At Munich, Zelensky said troops were hamstrung by lack of weapons: “Our dear friends are ... keeping Ukraine in an artificial deficit"

Wounded now being treated:


Russia hit only two military targets upon firing 24 North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukraine in recent weeks, Ukraine's top prosecutor said on Friday, casting doubt on the reliability of Pyongyang's much-feared, but little-known weaponry.
Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said a preliminary assessment found at least 24 recently fired ballistic missiles were from North Korea, and of the KN-23/24 series, the latest addition to an array of weapons used by Russia for airstrikes.

Speaking to reporters in Kyiv, Kostin said that of the 24 missiles fired, only two, aimed at an oil refinery and an airfield, had been "relatively accurate."
"The accuracy of the missiles is questionable," he said.
In total, the 24 missiles killed at least 14 civilians and injured 70 more, he said.
Beyond the Ukrainian battlefield, the performance of North Korean missiles is of interest to South Korea and Japan, where military experts are eager to understand these systems to hone their own defence capabilities, said Joe Byrne, a North Korea specialist at the Royal United Services Institute defence think tank in London.

Ukrainian authorities were able to identify the North Korean origin of the 24 missiles thanks to markings resembling Korean symbols found on debris recovered from impact sites, as well as by analyzing the characteristic flight paths of KN-series missiles, Kostin, the prosecutor said.
The Kremlin has not denied nor confirmed its use of North Korean-made weapons. North Korea's mission to the United Nations did not respond to emailed questions from Reuters.
"In total, between December 30, 2023 and February 7, 2024, the enemy launched at least 12 attacks on seven regions of Ukraine with this type of missile," the prosecutor said.
The targeted areas included three strikes on the capital Kyiv, two on the northeastern city of Kharkiv and others on Zaporizhzhia region, towns and villages in Kirovohrad region, and the regions of Poltava, Donetsk, and Dnipro, he said.
The most lethal use of the ballistic missile was on the city centre of Kharkiv on Jan. 2 when three people were killed and 64 others were injured.
The prosecutor chief confirmed that Ukraine was investigating whether a huge crater blasted in the ground near the town of Bucha near Kyiv during an airstrike on Thursday morning had been caused by the North Korean missile.
An analysis of the attacks has determined the maximum range of the missiles to be up to 650 km (400 miles), he said, adding that the preliminary assessment was that Russia was launching them from the region of Voronezh.


Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and one Su-35 fighter in the skies over eastern Ukraine, the country's air force chief said.

"On the morning of February 17, 2024, in the eastern (sector), units of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed three enemy aircraft at once — two Su-34 fighter-bombers and one Su-35 fighter," Mykola Oleshchuk wrote on Telegram.

Since receiving advanced Western air defense systems, Kyiv has been able to deploy these weapons to pose an increasing threat to Russian aviation in areas near the front lines.


Military operations in Ukraine have cost Russia up to $211 billion and the country has lost $10 billion in canceled or paused arms sales. At least 20 medium to large Russian naval vessels have been sunk in the Black Sea and 315,000 Russian soldiers have either been killed or wounded, according to U.S. Department of Defense data.


Although Germany is the leading European country to aid Ukraine, it is still not sending Kyiv its Taurus cruise missiles — seen as adding crucial long-distance striking power to the Ukrainian military.

The issue was raised after his speech in Munich, but the chancellor called the question on whether his government would consider approving the missiles' delivery in future as "strange."
 

Czechia has found sources abroad for hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition that could be delivered to Ukraine in a matter of weeks, if it can secure funding with partners in the US, Germany, Sweden and other countries, Czech President Petr Pavel said at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. The president said the potential purchase concerned half a million rounds of 155-millimeter caliber ammunition and 300,000 rounds of 122-millimeter caliber ammunition. "It is necessary to support Ukraine with arms and ammunition from all available sources," Mr. Pavel said.

The Brussels-based Politico reported in early February that Czechia was looking into the possibility of acquiring ammunition from arms companies in countries such as South Korea, Turkey and South Africa.


What I learnt today at Munich, under the Chatham House rule, was that European artillery ammo producers are exporting 40% of their output to third countries (ie not Ukraine).


A certain number of Ukrainian soldiers have been captured during the final phase of withdraw from Avdiivka, says Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of Strategic Grouping of Troops Tavria.

Video: https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1758877843344212308

Rotation of soldiers of 2nd Assault Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade near the railway station in Avdiivka, likely yesterday. The unit acted as the blocking detachment and allowed other Ukrainian defenders to withdraw.


📷 Avdiivka's withdrawal operation was led by Ukrainian HUR MO. They, together with SSO, Special unit Dozor, 3rd Assault Brigade, 225th Assault Battalion and 110th Mechanized Brigade held the last road from Avdiivka and provided an evacuation corridor.

On the downed Ukrainian helicopter the other day: https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1758808514816852077

Footage from the ground of the wreckage of that Ukrainian military helicopter shot down by the Russians in the area of Robotyne on the Zaporizhzhia front on February 13.

The video allows to confirm that the downed helicopter was a Mil Mi-8, not Mil Mi-24 as indicated by me above.


Ukrainian forces began pulling out of the city this week, withdrawing from a military base in the south where they were at risk of being cut off by Russian forces. “We held this position as long as it allowed us to effectively deter and destroy the enemy,” said Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, commander of Ukrainian forces fighting in the southeast.
Ukrainian soldiers said they were suffering from acute shortages of ammunition. For every 10 artillery shells fired by Russia, Ukraine can respond with only one, Tarnavskiy said. Soldiers sometimes hold fire even when Russian soldiers are in their sights in order to preserve ammunition.
Another huge challenge is Russia’s intensive use of guided aerial bombs against which Ukraine has little protection, soldiers say.
“These bombs completely destroy any position,” said Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, adding that Russia dropped between 60 and 80 a day. He described the battle for Avdiivka as “many times more hellish” than Bakhmut.

On a recent day outside the city, Ukrainian soldiers talked of exhaustion and falling morale.
“Everybody is tired and they don’t know what will happen in the next few minutes, let alone tomorrow,” said Nazar Filipchuk, an infantryman who has been in the army for two years.
Among soldiers’ complaints was a lack of time off and that brigades aren’t being rotated out of hot-spot areas, in the way that U.S. and European forces would move units out after a defined tour of duty.
Behind Avdiivka, Ukrainian engineers were building a series of antitank trenches, likely as a defensive line to fall back to.


The next days will show how good Ukrainian lines in the back are.

While Russian units suffered critical Losses, the fall of Avdiivka itself is bad, since it was considered to be one of the most fortified towns and was holding back Russian Advance on the Donetsk Front.
Russia still has Reserve units ready to exploit this breakthrough, so the next days will be critical.

Also the Lack of 155 and 152mm Ammunition on the UA side didn’t just disappear, it still very much exists.

I do not know how much Ukrainian Brigades suffered here to continue
 
Is it fear that compells the Russian people to just go along with this? With the casualty rate and emigration surely every household has been impacted in some way directly.
 

Even if Ukrainian lines stabilize in the rear of Avdiivka, the city’s fall into Russian control will allow Moscow’s military to move its troops and equipment more efficiently as it presses in other directions.
“Avdiivka is a very important strong point in the Ukrainian system of defense,” because it protects Pokrovsk, about 30 miles to the northwest, a logistical hub for the Ukrainian Army, Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Ukraine, said in an interview.
“Taking control of Avdiivka might create an opening for Russia,” he said.
Soldiers reached by phone on Friday, who asked not to be identified given the ongoing military action, described a harrowing bid to escape the city. They gave accounts of racing past blasted-out buildings as shells thundered from all around and Russians pressed in from several directions.
“In one of the sectors in the town, fighters from the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade find themselves completely surrounded, but they are attempting to break through, and they succeed,” Maj. Rodion Kudryashov, deputy commander of the assault brigade, said in an interview with Radio Liberty.
Some expressed concern privately in interviews that the call to withdraw had come too late, or posted stark accounts on social media of their dangerous and chaotic retreat.
Viktor Biliak of the 110th Brigade, which has been defending the city for the past two years, described his evacuation on Thursday of the garrison known as Zenit, in a southern pocket of the city.
Mr. Biliak, who uses the call sign Hentai, said his unit was left no time for an orderly exit — neither to evacuate weapons and equipment, nor to burn papers and lay mines in the way of attacking Russian troops.

Ten men made a failed attempt to leave on Wednesday night, he said. They had to fight their way forward in a gun battle, but then came under artillery fire.
“Only three wounded made it back,” Hentai wrote on Instagram. He helped rescue one of the wounded men the next morning, he said, a dangerous movement in daylight that cost the unit four more wounded, including himself.
The troops made another attempt Thursday night, and the severely wounded were told to wait for an armored vehicle to take them.
“Groups were leaving, one after the other,” Hentai wrote. Still able to walk, he decided not to wait for the evacuation vehicle and led a group out.
“There was zero visibility outside. It was just plain survival. A kilometer across the field,” he wrote. “A bunch of blind cats led by a drone. Enemy artillery. The road to Avdiivka is littered with our corpses.”
The evacuation vehicle never came for the wounded, he said. The last group left the bunker, and he overheard a wounded soldier asking over the radio about the evacuation vehicle. The commander replied that no vehicle was coming and that they should leave the wounded behind.
“He didn’t know he was talking to a wounded man,” Hentai wrote. “This dialogue on the radio wounded us to our very core.”
His and other accounts could not be independently confirmed, but the soldiers cited in this article are known to be members of the Ukrainian military with a public presence on social media, and the locations of landscapes shown in videos were verified as being in Avdiivka by The New York Times.
As the battle for Avdiivka intensified, Ukrainian commanders fighting in the area were forced to ration ammunition, soldiers said.


1. Avdiivka
Russia captured a longtime Ukrainian stronghold.
The now-destroyed city of Avdiivka covers only some 12 square miles. But for the better part of a decade it carved a bulge in the front line that undermined critical Russian logistical operations. It sits only a few miles from the city of Donetsk, which Russia has occupied since 2014.
In recent weeks, Russian forces have breached a critical supply line and threatened to encircle Ukrainian soldiers. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the head of Ukraine’s forces in the south, said that Ukraine had no choice but to withdraw.
“In a situation where the enemy is advancing on the corpses of their own soldiers with a 10-to-1 shell advantage, under constant bombardment, this is the only correct solution,” he said in a statement.
It’s not clear how far the Russians might be able to push this fight beyond Avdiivka, or how well the Ukrainians have constructed their next lines of defense. But the next major population centers, home to tens of thousands of civilians, are only about 35 miles to the west.
Roughly 50,000 Russian soldiers have been dedicated to the fight for Avdiivka in this direction, although the numbers fluctuated. Tens of thousands of Russians have been killed or wounded, according to Western and Ukrainian officials, but Russia has steadily replenished their ranks, including using convicts to join the fighting.
Even if the lines stabilize after the Russians take the city, its fall allows the Russian military to move troops and equipment more efficiently behind the line as it presses in other directions.

2. Marinka
A destroyed town is now a base for Russian attacks.
By last month, Russian forces had finally cleared out the last Ukrainian defenders of Marinka, another longtime frontline town.
There is very little left of Marinka after two years of Russian bombardments and battles. But its capture has allowed the Russians to turn their attention to the south and another vital Ukrainian stronghold, Vuhledar.
Last year, the Russians repeatedly tried to attack Vuhledar from the south and suffered catastrophic losses, including a devastating defeat in one of the largest tank battles of the war.
But with Marinka under control, the Russians are attacking Vuhledar from the north. They are currently advancing through the village of Novomykhailivka, which is about 13 miles to the northeast.
It is not clear how many forces the Russians have amassed in this direction, but Ukrainian officials have said Russia has kept around 40,000 in the nearby Mariupol area to be deployed for attacks from the south.
Soldiers fighting in the Vuhledar area said that the fall of Avdiivka, 55 miles to the northeast, would likely free up Russian forces to step up attacks from the north.

3. Robotyne
Russia is seeking to reverse Ukraine’s largest gains last year.
When Ukraine’s failed summer counteroffensive culminated last year, its forces had managed to advance only about ten miles deep into the southern front, reaching just beyond a tiny village, Robotyne.
Russia now appears determined to win back what it lost.
The Russian military has more troops concentrated on this front than on the Avdiivka front, Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the south, said this week.
“It seems that the Russians have set a goal to gain some success there by storming in, just as they are trying to do in Avdiivka,” he said.

4. Kreminna
Russia is pushing from Kreminna to reclaim towns in the northeast it lost to Ukraine in late 2022.
Ever since the Russians were driven out of occupied territories in northeastern Ukraine more than a year ago — losing control over more than 500 settlements spread over 11,000 square kilometers — they have been fighting to try and take it back.
Last year, little territory changed hands, despite intense fighting in the forest belts along the front here. Now, Russia is starting to move forward again, albeit slowly in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces are pushing in two directions from the city of Kreminna: toward the battered city of Kupiansk to the north, and toward Lyman, 80 miles to the south. Russia has maintained a total force of around 110,000 troops in the area for months, despite losses, Illia Yevlash, a spokesman for the military in the area, told reporters earlier this month.

5. Bakhmut
Russia has regained the momentum, and a major Ukrainian city could come into artillery range.
Russia destroyed and then seized the city of Bakhmut in May, its last significant territorial gain on the battlefield before advancing on Avdiivka this week. By the time the Russians took Bakhmut, their forces were exhausted, and the Wagner mercenary group that led the fight was in open rebellion against the Russian ministry of defense.
Ukrainian hopes to exploit the disarray to counterattack around the flanks of the city largely stalled. Now, it is the Russians who have the initiative.
General Oleksandr Syrsky, the newly appointed commander of Ukrainian forces, said recently that the Russians are determined to break through their defenses around Chasiv Yar, which would give them control of commanding heights in the area and expose the city of Kramatorsk to increased artillery fire. Some 62,000 Russian soldiers are on the ground in the Bakhmut direction, according to Ukrainian estimates.
“The situation is tense, requiring constant monitoring of the overall situation and prompt decision-making on the ground,” Gen. Syrsky said in a statement earlier this month.
 
Relatedly, we should not be giving Israel any materiel. They should pay for all of it. The situations should not be linked in any way.
Agree that the two shouldn't be related but what's the reasoning behind asking Israel to pay? Curious, not trying to stir pots.
Ukraine got invaded and occupied by a foreign power who has devastated their economy and infrastructure. Israel had a series of horrific terrorists acts perpetrated against them and their people. Their economy and infrastructure are intact. Israel has the ability to pay for its weapons; Ukraine does not.

I am not saying that Isreal does not have the right to defend itself from terrorists (even if I think their actions in Gaza are too much, but that's a different topic). It's really about which of our allies can afford the bombs and which cannot.
Good post. i will say the other big difference, and I'm really against giving actually money to either, is that at least with Israel, if we get into our own war we can expect military support. Sometimes repayment of support comes in different ways. During the Iraq war we requested use of Turkey territory for US forces and they told us to F off. We used Kuwait instead. Maybe Ukraine can be our Kuwait down the road? Maybe, but every penny we give Ukraine we get zero in return. It's just bad business when your business is already bleeding money. All my opinion and I reserve the right to change this opinion at any moment.
I'm not so sure we could count on israel to really help us. all of IDF is focused on their region and doesn't project outside of that, and they wouldn't contribute much to anything for fear of the arab countries attacking them in response.

it's not we aren't going to get a penny back analogy. Think of it more as, spend a penny now or possibly spend dollars and American lives at a later date.
Pretty much the only military on earth that can truly project power is ours.
won't disagree although some could if desired, but that doesn't really change my stance on Israel supporting us as farfromhome originally stated.
I will say support is way more then simply boots on the ground or willingness to provide firepower. As a non NATO ally our relationship with Israel has provided a lot of fruit. It's help shape our counter terrorism program in the the region. It's provided a partner in new military technology. Example is David's Sling defense system. American companies set up shop in the country for military R and D development. They are an ally that gives and doesn't just take.
I'm not saying we shouldn't have a relationship with Israel in fact I have helped in a lot of those efforts with my job.

what I'm saying is the statement that they would provide military support towards any military engagement that does not impact them should be reconsidered.
 
Relatedly, we should not be giving Israel any materiel. They should pay for all of it. The situations should not be linked in any way.
Agree that the two shouldn't be related but what's the reasoning behind asking Israel to pay? Curious, not trying to stir pots.
Ukraine got invaded and occupied by a foreign power who has devastated their economy and infrastructure. Israel had a series of horrific terrorists acts perpetrated against them and their people. Their economy and infrastructure are intact. Israel has the ability to pay for its weapons; Ukraine does not.

I am not saying that Isreal does not have the right to defend itself from terrorists (even if I think their actions in Gaza are too much, but that's a different topic). It's really about which of our allies can afford the bombs and which cannot.
Good post. i will say the other big difference, and I'm really against giving actually money to either, is that at least with Israel, if we get into our own war we can expect military support. Sometimes repayment of support comes in different ways. During the Iraq war we requested use of Turkey territory for US forces and they told us to F off. We used Kuwait instead. Maybe Ukraine can be our Kuwait down the road? Maybe, but every penny we give Ukraine we get zero in return. It's just bad business when your business is already bleeding money. All my opinion and I reserve the right to change this opinion at any moment.
I'm not so sure we could count on israel to really help us. all of IDF is focused on their region and doesn't project outside of that, and they wouldn't contribute much to anything for fear of the arab countries attacking them in response.

it's not we aren't going to get a penny back analogy. Think of it more as, spend a penny now or possibly spend dollars and American lives at a later date.
Pretty much the only military on earth that can truly project power is ours.
won't disagree although some could if desired, but that doesn't really change my stance on Israel supporting us as farfromhome originally stated.
I will say support is way more then simply boots on the ground or willingness to provide firepower. As a non NATO ally our relationship with Israel has provided a lot of fruit. It's help shape our counter terrorism program in the the region. It's provided a partner in new military technology. Example is David's Sling defense system. American companies set up shop in the country for military R and D development. They are an ally that gives and doesn't just take.

what I'm saying is the statement that they would provide military support towards any military engagement that does not impact them should be reconsidered.
Noted. Cataloged. The reconsideration is saved for later.
 

Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Robotyne. 3/


Footage of a Russian fighter, downed by a Ukrainian SAM earlier today (likely PATRIOT), falling near Dyakovo, Luhansk Oblast.


A Russian channel confirms that a Russian Su-35 fighter was shot down today. They say the pilot was rescued by army and Rosgvardia spetsnaz.

Video of Avdiivka: https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1758949767223148781


1/ More details have emerged about the destruction of the Russian large landing ship Novocherkassk on 26 December 2023. According to a report, the local air defence system was inoperative and could not intercept the two incoming Storm Shadow missiles.
2/ Novocherkassk was reportedly under repair in Feodosiya from 17 November. She was due to undergo sea trials on 26 December and was being manned by a crew of up to 90 personnel who were seconded from three other large landing ships – the Yamal, Azov and Nikolai Filchenkov.
3/ Most of the personnel were professional (contracted) sailors, with 14 conscripts also present. Many were reportedly sleeping in cabins at the time of the attack, with the commanders on the navigation bridge. Almost all of those who were sleeping are said to have been killed.
4/ The ship was hit by two missiles which struck the bow and stern, causing the immediate deaths of dozens of the crew from the initial explosions and fragmentation. The entire ship exploded catastrophically 10 minutes later, but it seems that many of the crew escaped in time.
5/ The incoming Storm Shadows are reported to have been detected but the local air defence system had broken down a day before the attack and was inoperative. According to the Ukrainian resistance group Atesh, Russian air defence commanders are being punished for the lapse.
6/ Officially, 4 of the crew have died – 3 whose bodies were found in the wreckage and 1 who died in hospital – and 34 are 'missing', including 4 conscripts. Given that the explosion sent pieces of the ship flying over 600 m (1,970 ft), it seems unlikely they will be found. /end


Italy is ready to offer more military aid to Ukraine, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on Saturday.
"We are ready to do more" at the economic, political and military level, Tajani said at the Munich Security Conference.
He said Italy had so far approved eight support packages for Ukraine, with the latest one due to arrive in the coming days. Ukraine has been battling a full-scale Russian invasion for almost two years.


Remarkable stmts y'day by @EmmanuelMacron on Russia - 🧵
"Russia has suffered a series of strategic defeats...it is reduced to emptying its prisons to replenish its losses at the frontline. 🇷🇺 had returned to intl formats in 90s, it has lost this place and its credibility
Russia "lost strategically she for whom access to the seas is so decisive by pushing Finland and Sweden to join NATO and making the Baltic Sea a sea where allies have a dominant position Macron: "Today we're in a new phase. Vladimir Putin's Russia has become a methodical actor of the destabilisation of the world, that doesnt hesitate to threaten its surroundings and also more directly our interests"
Macron: "The Kremlin's regime is building an imagined narrative to question the borders that were inherited from the Soviet Union by reneging on its own word and commitments - which is a threat to Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia"

Macron used "regime" 7 times in his remarks
 

In the past 24hrs Russian forces have been attacking, probing 🇺🇦 defenses along multiple sectors on the frontline including in/near Bakhmut (Chasiv Yar), Kremina (Terny), & Zaporizhzhia (Robotyne). Pressure on 🇺🇦 forces is increasing. Wider-scale collapse of 🇺🇦 defenses unlikely.

🇷🇺 forces have not been able to establish a decisive advantage in fires in past months. But as 🇺🇦 ammo stocks are decreasing & manpower issues persist, the military situation for 🇺🇦 forces could become more challenging this spring necessitating further tactical withdrawals.


Key takeaways from last week's developments:

  • Russian ground attacks continued across the entire front but delivered results near Bakhmut and Avdiivka; Avdivka was taken following Ukraine’s withdrawal after a four-month battle for the city;
  • The overall operational situation remained largely unchanged; Strategically, Ukraine continues to be at a disadvantage, and the gap between Russian and Ukrainian warfighting capability will continue to grow; So far, Russian progress has been modest, but the likelihood of Russian breakthroughs will also increase;
  • Russians sustained artillery attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and residential areas in the Kharkiv Oblast, although the intensity of these strikes decreased compared to two weeks ago;
  • Russian attacks in the Luhansk Direction also continued; Russians remained focused on areas near Synkivka, Tabaivka, Bilohorivka, and Terny; They made minor gains near the latter.
  • Russians made some gains northeast of Bakhmut, which was facilitated by the deployment of FPV drones; Avdiivka was on the verge of being taken as of Friday as Kyiv announced the withdrawal on the night of Friday to Saturday;
  • Russians made minor gains near Robotyne in southern Ukraine; Although no other changes occurred, Ukrainians are increasingly concerned about Russian build-up that may herald preparations for Russian offensive action towards Orikhiv;
  • Ukrainians maintained positions near Krynky on Dnipro’s left bank; Russian attacks were unsuccessful;
  • Last week saw one Russian mass missile attack, while Shahed kamikaze drone attacks occurred almost daily;

According to the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS), during the past seven days, in the Kupyansk axis, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) repelled 8 Russian attacks (16 two weeks ago) near Synkivka, east of Petropavlivka in the Kharkiv Oblast and Stel’makhivka in the Luhansk Oblast. In the Lyman axis, the UAF repelled 21 Russian attacks (61 two weeks ago) near Makiivka and Serebryansky forest in the Luhansk Oblast and east of Terny in the Donetsk Oblast. In the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Mariinka and Shakhtarske axes, the Ukrainian soldiers repelled 424 Russian ground attacks (317 two weeks ago) near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, east of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, south of Tonen’ke, Nevel’s’ke, Pervomais’ke and Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk Oblast. In the Zaporizhzhia axis, the Ukrainian units repelled 7 Russian attacks (13 two weeks ago) near Verbove, Novopokrovka and Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Indeed, Avdiivka was the frontline in the Russia-Ukraine war since 2015. Russians found it difficult to capture because Kyiv established formidable defences in the area between 2015 and 2021. But once these were overwhelmed, Russians began to gain tempo. No comparable defences have been developed west of the city, which may accelerate Russian gains.
As the reader will see below, some Ukrainian sources expressed further concern about the Russian build-up of forces in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. If Russians attack north along the Orikhiv axis, Ukrainian hard-fought summer 2023 gains may be erased.


We also continue to see a significant Russian build-up potential. In this context, we must admit we were incorrect in our assessment that the Russian offensive potential in the Donetsk Axis was exhausted. Russians deployed new formations to the area and continued attacking despite heavy losses, especially within its armoured fleet.

Indeed, if we look at how the number of units deployed by both sides since early October, when the attack on Avdiivka commenced, we will see that Russia and Ukraine started with a similar number of combat units deployed to the Donetsk Oblast (43 vs 38), however, within a month, Russians increased this number to 65, while Ukrainians increased it to 44. Over the next two months, Russians continued to deploy forces to the region, reaching 79 units by mid-JAN24. Ukrainians sent in ten new formations. While Ukrainians peaked with 56 units as of last week, Russians hit 95 units. In other words, Russians increased their presence in the Donetsk Oblast by 120%, while Ukrainians increased their presence by 47%. This difference accurately portrays what access both sides’ have to manpower. Russians continue to mobilise and recruit. Ukraine’s voluntary recruitment is exhausted, and forced mobilisation does not generate numbers sufficient for addressing land forces’ needs to create new formations.
There were some comments on the numbers above claiming that while Russian units are nominally under-strengthened (a brigade is, in reality, a battalion, while a battalion is actually a company), Ukrainian brigades have more battalions than Russian. However, this assessment does not take into consideration Ukrainian losses. As stated in the previous UCM issue, the Washington Post reported two weeks ago that some Ukrainian mechanised battalions were down to as few as 40 infantry troops, compared to 200 at full strength. To compare, in November, WSJ reported that a mechanised company from the 47th Mechanised Brigade fighting near Avdiivka had 20 combat troops, down from 120 when the counteroffensive started. As such, both sides suffer attrition, but Russia's potential to address losses is much greater compared to Ukraine's.

A lack of fortification stood up in-depth, which also means that a lack of manpower and artillery could prevent Ukrainians from halting Russian advances, potentially leading to larger breakthroughs and faster gains.


Back in the halls of the conference venue, there’s another concern keeping Ukrainian and NATO defense planners up at night: air defense. Ukraine is quickly running out of supplies of Western air defense ammunition, which is seen as critical to defending Ukrainian cities from Russian missile attacks and keeping Russian warplanes out of Ukrainian skies.

F-16 update:

Ukraine is on track to get ahold of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets in June, two European officials told SitRep. “I think that in June we will see them in Ukraine,” said Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas, citing a timeline that was confirmed by another European official present at Munich. The Ukrainian government expects that 12 pilots will be trained on the fighter jets by the end of the U.S. fiscal year. (In layman’s terms, we call that “September.”)


Russian authorities in Dagestan say Col Magomedzhanov, commander of Russia’s 61st Naval Infantry Brigade and deputy commander of Russia’s 18th Combined Arms Army, has died in Crimea from battlefield wounds.


Minister: Ukraine tests its own equivalent of Russia's Lancet drones.

Ukraine has conducted initial tests of combat drones resembling the Russian Lancet drones, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reported on Feb. 18. Within a few months, Ukraine will be able to produce approximately 100 such drones per month, the minister said.


#France intends to transfer a new generation of kamikaze drones to #Ukraine, which are still being tested, said the head of the French Ministry of Defense, Sebastien Lecornu.

"Ukraine will be one of the first to receive these drones in the coming weeks," said Defense Ministry head Sébastien Lecornu in an interview with the Journal du Dimanche.

This will also allow to test the drone on the battlefield, Lecornu said.


Russian T-55 MBT seen assaulting Robotyne earlier this weekend.

No ERA, likely an older T-55A or downgraded T-55M1.
 

The Russians launched a determined drive to seize Avdiivka in October. But they are also on the attack near Bakhmut and Mariinka (also in Donetsk), and towards Kupiansk in the north.

On the southern front, in Zaporizhzhia, Russian and Ukrainian sources speak of a massive Russian build-up in the area where the Ukrainians tried to launch their counter-offensive last summer. According to some analysts a force of 50,000 men has been assembled.

Ivan Tymochko, Chairman of the Reservists Council of Ukrainian Land Forces, said Saturday that “despite the fact that our attention is focused on Avdiivka, in fact, very intense fighting is ongoing in the Lyman-Kupiansk sector, [and] near Bakhmut. The enemy has sharply amassed forces in the area of Robotyne,” another flashpoint area on the southern front.

In the south, the first Russian probing of Ukrainian lines has already begun. According to the Ukrainian military, three Russian tanks were destroyed Saturday and dozens of soldiers killed amid a Russian offensive that “involved 30 pieces of equipment and a fairly large number of enemy personnel,” in more than a dozen attempts to break through Ukrainian lines.

“There were no losses of positions in the Zaporizhzhia sector. The enemy suffered significant losses. We are holding back the enemy’s offensive.”
But Russian military bloggers had a different take, saying that Russian 42nd and 76th divisions had advanced some two kilometers near the village Robotyne, which the Ukrainians took last summer, and had pummelled Ukrainian defensive positions with artillery and air strikes.

Here as elsewhere, the Russians have vastly increased their use of 500-kilogram glide bombs from aircraft against which Ukrainian front-line troops have little protection.

One Russian blogger, ‘Archangel Special Forces Z’, claimed that “airborne troops are conducting a powerful artillery preparation in Zaporizhzhia direction! There are already assault operations underway in some areas.”


The Associated Press interviewed over a dozen commanders, including heads of artillery units, in the war’s most intense combat zones in the weeks ahead of Avdiivka’s fall. They said shortages, which have always plagued Ukrainian forces since the full-scale invasion, grew acute last autumn.

Dwindling supplies of Western-supplied long-range artillery in particular means Ukrainian forces are inhibited from striking high-value targets deep behind Russian lines, where heavy equipment and personnel are accumulated.

For weeks, Ukrainian forces across the frontline have complained about critical shortages in ammunition, with some artillery batteries fighting with only 10 percent of supply they need. Desperate to economize shells, military leaders ordered units to fire at only precise targets. But commanders on the ground say this is barely enough to restrain their better supplied enemy. Concerns are growing that without military aid the fall of Avdiivka may be repeated in other parts of the frontline.

“Currently the ammunition deficit is quite serious. We are constantly promised that more is coming, but we don’t see it coming,” said Khorobryi, commander of an artillery battery. Their battery has only 5-10% of ammunition needed, he said.

That, he said, robs forces of their ability to effectively attack and regain territories. Even worse, Ukraine loses fighters because it cannot give infantry covering infantry fire.


He, like other officers interviewed for this story, spoke on condition that only their first names be used for security reasons.

“We have nothing to fight with, we have nothing to cover our frontlines,” said Valerie, who commands a howitzer unit that uses NATO-standard 155 mm rounds. To repel a Russian attack, he said they needed 100-120 shells per unit per day. Today, they have a tenth of that, he said.

Ukrainian soldiers positioned in Avdiivka said that before the fall of the city Russia had switched tactics to capitalize on dire ammunition shortages.

Instead of sending columns of armed vehicles, Moscow’s forces began dispatching waves of smaller infantry groups to engage Ukrainian forces in close quarters. It meant Ukrainian forces had to expel “five times” more ammunition to keep them at bay.

“The enemy also understands and feels our capabilities, and with that, they manage to succeed,” said Chaklun, a soldier in the 110th Brigade.

Concerns abound about how the ammunition shortage will impact Ukrainian forces in other sectors of the frontline. The Kupiansk line, in Ukraine’s northeast, is fragile. Russia has been intensifying attacks in the direction for months in a bid to recapture the important logistics hub it had lost in the fall of 2022.

Yuri, the commander of the 44th Brigade in Kupiansk, said his aerial reconnaissance units spot many long-range targets, including Russian mortars and grenade launchers, but because they don’t have enough ammunition they can’t hit them.

Instead, he has no choice but to watch how his enemy accumulates reserves at a distance.

Oleksandr, the commander of a battalion of the 32nd Brigade in Kupiansk said he had just enough shells - for now.

“But it depends on the intensity from the Russian side. If they increase it, it won’t be enough to hold this line,” he said.
 

The fall of Avdiivka is more important than the fall of Bakhmut, according to Mykola Kapitonenko, a Kyiv-based security analyst. It was better defended and has more strategic value. The risk, he says, is that unless Ukrainian forces can now rapidly secure new defensive lines the Russians will surge forward and capture yet more territory. “There is no panic yet, but people are gloomy.” The fall of Avdiivka is also a blow to Mr Zelensky personally, he says, because General Syrsky is seen to answer to him directly. The general maintains little autonomy, unlike his predecessor, General Valery Zaluzhny.
In May Mr Zelensky’s term in office officially ends, but he will continue as leader because elections cannot take place under martial law. Still, this will enable Russia and increasing numbers of domestic critics to question his legitimacy. There is no immediate threat to Mr Zelensky, reckons Mr Kapitonenko, but over time “the crisis is getting deeper.”
As Avdiivka fell it was clear that the Russians were keeping up the pressure over the whole eastern front line. Shelling could be heard near important towns such as Kostiantynivka, 40km north of Avdiivka, which may now be vulnerable. At a military stabilisation point there, to which soldiers are evacuated before being sent on to hospital, there was a constant stream of wounded into the early hours of February 17th.
An intelligence official, who asked not to be named, said that bad military organisation meant that front-line troops did not have a nearby second line of defence to fall back on. This was confirmed by wounded soldiers, who are also complaining about a lack of manpower at the front.


Close to the frontline in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, a bumpy road passes through half-abandoned hamlets. It morphs into a muddy track, snakes through fields, and eventually leads to an army base hidden in a forest.
There, as a kettle boiled on a gas heater, a weary 39-year-old soldier, who wished to be known only by his callsign, Titushko, spoke about the problems of fighting the Russians amid a serious ammunition shortage, as the sound of fire from nearby positions echoed around the base.
In November, Titushko’s men, part of an artillery division in Ukraine’s First Tank Brigade, received a supply of about 300 shells every 10 days, but they now have a firing limit of just 10 a day. “Back then, we could keep them on their toes, fire all the time, aim every time we saw a target. Now we fire exclusively for defence,” he said.
The ammunition reserves at the base are thin, and partly made up of Iranian shells – part of a shipment seized in the Gulf apparently en route to Houthi rebels in Yemen. They are “extremely problematic and don’t work well,” another soldier at the base said.

At the base in Donetsk region, Titushko talked about the unease he felt on his recent two-week home leave. In peacetime, he worked as a combine harvester driver in Ukraine’s northern Chernihiv region, before he signed up to fight in the first days after the invasion, in February 2022. He spent half of January this year back at home – his first break from the front for more than a year, giving much-needed respite from the nightly artillery and air attacks, the winter cold, and the giant rats that make life in the trenches hard to bear.
But instead of finding the experience rejuvenating, Titushko found the sight of civilians enjoying a semblance of normal life in cafes and restaurants difficult to stomach, and the questions they asked when they saw his uniform to be irritating.
“They ask you stupid things. ‘What’s it like there? How many Russians have you killed? How many of ours are dead?’” he said. He looked around at life back home, and wondered why the men he saw on the streets were not with him, at the front.
“I don’t really understand it. There’s enough work here, even if you don’t want to be firing a gun. You could dig a trench, cook the meals. Everyone helped at the start, everyone cared, but now it’s a different time. You look at these people and you want to say, ‘What will you do if the Russians come back and come to your towns? Do you think they’re going to be handing out Chupa Chups?’”
At this stage of the war, finding people who will go willingly to fight is becoming ever harder. It was one thing to sign up when it seemed like the Ukrainian army might advance and retake all the lost territory swiftly and triumphantly. Now, the calculation looks different.
Kyiv has been mobilising men for the war effort constantly over the past year, and there are plans to add hundreds of thousands more over the next year. Some are willing to go if called on, but many more stay in hiding at home for fear of receiving a summons in the street, or try to escape the country.
“Mobilisation is unpopular in society. The self-preservation instinct, the understanding that the war is going to drag on – nobody wants to risk the lives of their close ones,” said the Kyiv-based political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. “On the other hand, there is no doubt that we need mobilisation, so it’s a difficult situation.”
He said he expected the authorities to solve the problem on a month-to-month basis, rather than by mobilising a large number of people at once. “The resources to call up half a million people at once simply aren’t there, plus it would hit the economy hard, and there’s already a problem with labour reserves,” he said.
There is also the question of how well newly mobilised soldiers can fight. An army source said plans were under way to increase the training period from one month to two, but this is still not long to prepare for trench warfare. “It’s more a question of psychological problems than skills,” said Valentyn, the deputy commander of the artillery division. “People from civilian life have no experience of being at the front, of being away from home and loved ones for so long.”

In the third year of the war, the domestic political scene may also fracture. The unity of the first year has been steadily dissolving over recent months, with political opponents of Zelenskiy becoming increasingly vocal and a sense that politics has returned. The fatigue so visible in society is also palpable in the corridors of power. “Everyone is exhausted, physically and emotionally. Everyone’s fuse is very short,” said one diplomat based in Kyiv, of conversations with political leaders.
Ordinarily, a presidential election would have been due this spring, though there is a broad consensus that holding one at the moment is impossible. But there is concern that Zelenskiy has not found a new way of ruling after the initial period of consolidation, in order to bring more people into the tent.
“There are only two people who make decisions in this country,” said another diplomat, referring to Zelenskiy and his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.

Total defeat for Ukraine now looks like an impossible dream for Vladimir Putin, but total victory – including the reclaiming of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 – is also harder to imagine in the near term. Negotiations with Russia have long been a taboo subject, mainly because nobody believes Moscow would keep any agreement and would simply use it as a pause for breath before pushing again.
But fighting on indefinitely is also hardly sustainable. “If we can survive the next year, then we will probably be forced to negotiate some kind of ceasefire,” said Fesenko.
For many at the front, agreeing to a fragile and imperfect peace would be an unthinkable concession after the efforts and losses of the last two years. At the frontline, Titushko said the thought of returning home to peaceful life once more, only to be called up again when Russia recommenced hostilities, was too much to bear. “In 2014, we thought it was over and they came back. This time we have to finish them off for good,” he said.
 

The Ukrainian Air Force claims it shot down a Russian Su-34 and Su-35S today. Russian voenkor Romanov appears to confirm the Su-35S loss.


Col. Martin O’Donnell, spokesman for US Army Europe and Africa, told CNN the US is training roughly 1,500 Ukrainians at Grafenwoehr Training Area in Germany.


The full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the highly significant Eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka over the past week is largely the result of munitions shortages, according to Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) artillery commander Major Tanel Tatsi.


The death of Russia's opposition leader Alexei Navalny should push German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, the chair of the Bundestag's defense committee said Sunday.

"The right answer is to now send everything that we have, even this Taurus," said Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a lawmaker from the Free Democrats (FDP), which forms the ruling coalition along with the Greens and Scholz's Social Democrats.

The Greens, FDP and the opposition Christian Democrats are all in favor of delivering Taurus missiles, which have a range of about 500 kilometers and a powerful warhead that can destroy reinforced targets or key infrastructure like bridges.

Ukrainian officials who spoke to POLITICO said that securing Taurus deliveries is now a vital demand for Kyiv.

“There is only one way to destroy Russia, to hit deep into Russian-occupied territory,” said one senior Ukrainian official who was granted anonymity to speak freely.

Germany and other Western countries have earlier balked at sending more-sophisticated weapons to Ukraine — from advanced artillery to air defenses to main battle tanks and jet fighters — before finally giving way.

"Europe initially said 'no' only to ultimately change course," the official said.

Even senior EU officials are ramping up the pressure.

"We have been hesitating too much, too many times,” said the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell in Munich on Sunday. "Two years ago we were ready to give helmets, now we are giving F-16s. ... Had we taken these decisions quicker maybe the war would have been different.”


Truck exploded yesterday near the Arsenal arms' factory. G(R)U has a track record of blowing stuff up in Bulgaria. Could be an accident but who knows.

Video: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1759422325563203834

Old footage of soldiers from Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade in the Avdiivka Coke Plant during Russian UMPK glide bomb strikes.

Video: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1759377550785085615

Videos of Russian assaults near Kopani and Robotyne yesterday showing ATGM, DPICM, and FPV strikes on Russian armor/infantry by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade. The video shows Russian T-55 and MT-LBM 6MB.
 
but at some point the economy and the loss of Russians will result in real pressure or even regime change internally in Russia
I don't know that that's necessarily correct. Russia has maneuvered around sanctions partnering with India, China & North Korea to circumvent. If anything, it's had a more detrimental effect on countries like Germany than Russia. I need to read more about it but reports I read last weekend seemed to point to Russia not experiencing the economical impact we had hoped.
Guys, the politics forum ended. Just want to remind both our old and new members that in order to keep this thread, we need to keep our political opinions to ourselves. No matter how benign the discussion, I don't want to see it shut down because of opinions about military spending.

Thank you for your service, FarFromHome. We need more like you.
And these discussions have been decidedly non political. Don't ruin a good conversation by playing the politics forum police.
 
And these discussions have been decidedly non political. Don't ruin a good conversation by playing the politics forum police.

I'm not playing forum police and will not report anything. Any talk about military spending and the desirability of it or not is political. You engaged in it. Own it. Stop it. Now.
 
Stop? no. Quit allowing them to dictate the shape of our economy and thus lobby for the US to ever expand it's militaristic tendencies? yea.

The implication from your statement is twofold: 1.) that US would suffer in the world by not continuing it's weapons trade with NATO and all our partners, presumably from a perception standpoint. Meaning the US would be looked down upon, not as strong, maybe no longer a super power and/or 2.) the economic impact the shrinking of the military industries would have on the US as a whole. Tell me if I'm reading it wrong and apologies if I am.

These are political arguments. Full stop. Don't ever accuse me of playing police here. You're in the wrong.
 
The impact on Russia hasn't been on their ability to produce or field their military. Rather, it's domestic. High inflation, very high interest rates, rising wages for blue collar workers, deficit spending out the wazoo. Their central bank cannot control their fate and the long term prospects for their economy (especially when factoring in the loss of working age men) are not good.
 
I read something that skilled machinists and other trades that are in high demand now make more money than lawyers and white collar workers in Russia.
 
but at some point the economy and the loss of Russians will result in real pressure or even regime change internally in Russia
I don't know that that's necessarily correct. Russia has maneuvered around sanctions partnering with India, China & North Korea to circumvent. If anything, it's had a more detrimental effect on countries like Germany than Russia. I need to read more about it but reports I read last weekend seemed to point to Russia not experiencing the economical impact we had hoped.
Guys, the politics forum ended. Just want to remind both our old and new members that in order to keep this thread, we need to keep our political opinions to ourselves. No matter how benign the discussion, I don't want to see it shut down because of opinions about military spending.

Thank you for your service, FarFromHome. We need more like you.
And these discussions have been decidedly non political. Don't ruin a good conversation by playing the politics forum police.
Not nearly as much as hoped but it is also silly to suggest that the Russian economy is doing fine, they have had to take severe action to keep the economy from imploding. They are doing a much better job at it than I would like but as with all economic decisions- there is always a cost. When, how and how much you pay that cost are the real questions.

The losses that the Russians have suffered is significant. It far eclipses that of the Soviets in Afghanistan. The more Russians that don't come back and likely more importantly, the more that Russians instead of ethnic minorities are drawn for service from the big cities, the more political pressure will mount. Even in oppressive regimes like modern Russia there is a breaking point.
 
I read something that skilled machinists and other trades that are in high demand now make more money than lawyers and white collar workers in Russia.
They have shifted firmly to a war economy. Being able to make or produce something is far more valuable and the drain on manpower takes those with trade skills out as they are the ones most likely to be pressed into military service.
 
Guess I'm out, Rock caught me.

Enjoy your war

Not trying to be a heavy, and you can't even sign off without making it political.

I was right about what you're doing and to call me "thread police" or something does a massive disservice to me and shows exactly how you're violating the terms of service. Tough **** in the future.
 

After months of requests from Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration is working toward providing Ukraine with powerful new long-range ballistic missiles, according to two U.S. officials.

Late last year, the U.S. began to supply Ukraine with Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, but so far it has provided only the older medium-range ATACMS. Now, the U.S. is leaning toward sending the longer-range version of the missile, the officials said, which would allow Ukraine to strike farther inside the Russian-held Crimean Peninsula.


Senior Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Tarnavsky said Monday that Russia was launching multiple attacks near the village of Robotyne, one of the few places where Kyiv had managed to regain ground during last year's counteroffensive.


FighterBomber also seems to confirm the Su-35S loss. He and Romanov have both denied the recent Su-34 losses though.


The Russian pilot who switched sides and flew his helicopter to Ukraine last year has been found riddled with bullets in Spain. According to Ukrainian intelligence, he had moved there and contacted his Russian ex…

Sound background info on some of the commanders:

 
Guess I'm out, Rock caught me.

Enjoy your war

Not trying to be a heavy, and you can't even sign off without making it political.

I was right about what you're doing and to call me "thread police" or something does a massive disservice to me and shows exactly how you're violating the terms of service. Tough **** in the future.
Dude, he stopped, like, 8 hours before you replied: you should stop too.
 
Dude, he stopped, like, 8 hours before you replied: you should stop too.

"Enjoy your war" is not stopping and implies something a little more sick than that. It's a passive-aggressive kick to the nuts. Especially to someone like me who laments the war in all its manifestations and outcomes. So **** that.

I think that deserves a response. You might not, but ******* if I'm gonna let that go.
 
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Kremlin runs disinformation campaign to undermine Zelensky, documents show

When news first emerged last month that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was preparing to fire his top military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, officials in Moscow seemed jubilant. They had been trying to orchestrate just such a split for many months, documents show.
“We need to strengthen the conflict between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, along the lines of ‘he intends to fire him,’” one Kremlin political strategist wrote a year ago, after a meeting of senior Russian officials and Moscow spin doctors, according to internal Kremlin documents.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration ordered a group of Russian political strategists to use social media and fake news articles to push the theme that Zelensky “is hysterical and weak. … He fears that he will be pushed aside, therefore he is getting rid of the dangerous ones.”
The Kremlin instruction resulted in thousands of social media posts and hundreds of fabricated articles, created by troll farms and circulated in Ukraine and across Europe, that tried to exploit what were then rumored tensions between the two Ukrainian leaders, according to a trove of Kremlin documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post. The files, numbering more than 100 documents, were shared with The Post to expose for the first time the scale of Kremlin propaganda targeting Zelensky with the aim of dividing and destabilizing Ukrainian society — efforts that Moscow dubbed “information psychological operations.”
Ukrainian society, however, has so far remained remarkably united since Russia’s invasion, according to opinion polls, and officials in Moscow, the documents show, sometimes expressed frustration at their inability to undermine Zelensky and foment division. One of them complained in one exchange that the Ukrainian president was like Brad Pitt, a global star with an image that couldn’t be sullied.
But with Gen. Zaluzhny now out, the front lines frozen and further military and financial support from the United States uncertain, some in Kyiv are concerned that Russia’s covert propaganda efforts could begin to erode national cohesion and morale.
“The most difficult times are ahead,” said one senior European security official who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “Russia survived and they are preparing a new campaign which consists of three main directions: first, pressure on the front line; second, attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure; and thirdly, this destabilization campaign.”


The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said that EU member states could order artillery shells from outside the union as part of a plan to provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons.


Today Sweden announced the largest support package to Ukraine yet. Package 15 will be worth 7,1 billion SEK (~$683 mln), bringing 🇸🇪 combined value of military assistance to Ukraine to 30 billion SEK. (~$2,9 bln). Continuing support is crucial for both 🇺🇦 and 🇸🇪 security. (1/6)
This support package meets some of Ukraine's most pressing needs and is in line with the military capability coalitions that are taking shape within the Ukraine Defence Contact Group. (2/6)
Sweden will donate more artillery ammunition, air defence system RBS70, anti-tank missiles (TOW), hand grenades and Carl Gustaf grenade launchers. Sweden will also donate medical supplies and economic aid to funds for the procurement of more weapons to Ukraine. (3/6)
Furthermore, Sweden will support Ukraine with 10 CB 90 (Combat Boat 90), 20 group boats and underwater weapons. Sweden will by these donations also join the maritime coalition. Sweden is already a member of the drone, demining, airforce and armour coalition. (4/6)
As global military stocks dwindle we will focus more on donations. This aid package will add ~1 billion SEK to the Swedish-Danish joint procurement of CV 90s to Ukraine. This means that Sweden and Denmark will jointly invest 4 billion SEK (~385mln USD) towards this goal. (5/6)
Russia's war on Ukraine is also a war against the rules-based order. Ukraine is not only defending its own freedom but that of all of Europe. Sweden will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes. Russia cannot be allowed to win this war. 🇸🇪🇺🇦 (6/6)


This report’s primary conclusions are that Russia’s special services actively seek to expand their capacity in several areas that pose strategic threats to NATO members. First, the GRU is restructuring how it manages the recruitment and training of special forces troops and is rebuilding the support apparatus to be able to infiltrate them into European countries. Second, the GRU has taken the Wagner Group’s functions in house and is aggressively pursuing the expansion of its partnerships in Africa with the explicit intent to supplant Western partnerships. Third, the leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, is being used to build a broad network of influence among Chechen and Muslim populations in Europe and the Middle East, with the aim of contributing to the subversion of Western interests. These lines of effort should be countered.

This report’s most important conclusion is that Russia is using unconventional methods to expand its influence, evade containment, and destabilise and disrupt its adversaries – and is making progress in several directions. Countering these efforts requires an appreciation of the threat that extends beyond Ukraine and the active collaboration of those states that are being targeted. Russian methods are often unsophisticated and there is a litany of failures. Nevertheless, they persist, and so there is a requirement for sustained vigilance.
 

However, Ukraine revealed problems of its own. It failed to fortify critical fighting positions in time. The 110th Motorized Brigade defending Avdiivka wasn’t sent the reinforcements that it needed. And when retreat became inevitable, it was delayed for unknown reasons. All mistakes when facing an enemy that has overwhelming numbers of gliding bombs, drones, artillery, and doctrinally expendable manpower.

This made the retreat costlier in lives and equipment than it needed to be, as the Russians pounced on the opportunity to inflict more damage, experts on the Ukrainian military told the Kyiv Independent. Some retreating Ukrainians were shelled or cut off and killed. The number of casualties on the Ukrainian side is unclear, with different guesses by different sources. Some Western-donated equipment was reportedly left behind as well.

Military analyst Michael Kofman said it was worth it for Ukraine to hang on to the city until the battle turned — once it did, choosing to withdraw was the right decision.

However, Russia losing men and materiel doesn’t really matter, because they can afford them and they don’t care, said Glen Grant, a retired U.K. lieutenant colonel who advises Ukraine. “We cannot afford to fight them this way,” he said. “The tactics have to change.”

Withdrawing from east of the town, especially the filtration plant, required Ukrainians to hold positions at the Zenit fortress anchoring Avdiivka’s southern flank. After evacuations started flowing and the Russians realized it, they sent multiple brigades, including tanks, airborne and special forces to rout them. Many retreats were done in small groups.

Depending on where they were in the city, the Ukrainians’ withdrawal ranged from attempted controlled exits and people fleeing for their lives as the Russians blasted them. In retreat videos, Ukrainians escaping in vehicles are being shot by indirect fire or FPV (first-person view) drones. With no safe way to get vehicles inside Avdiivka, it’s hard to tell how many casualties there were.

Two survivors who retreated from the Zenit fortress after it was mostly encircled told the Kyiv Independent that they witnessed many of the fortress’ defenders getting killed during the retreat.

Fighting withdrawals are some of the most difficult military operations that exist. But experts argued that the defenders should have been long gone.

“From what we can gather it seems that the evacuation was done very late,” Paroinen said. “The final decision to leave was likely made… around Feb. 15.”

“Although Ukrainian forces withdrew, rather than trying to turn this battle into another Bakhmut, it was still done late and in a costly manner that doesn’t reflect good lessons learned from Sievierodonetsk, Soledar, or Bakhmut,” Kofman said.


“You do not leave yourself fighting on three sides” without enough forces to push back on two of them, Grant said. “When it became clear the front was going to be overwhelmed, we should have worked out how to do a fighting withdrawal three weeks ago, inflicting maximum casualties as we went. All we’ve done is lost lots of people for no military gain.”

The retreat wasn’t the only thing that was delayed. Analysts and familiar sources speaking on condition of anonymity said that multiple military decisions on the Avdiivka front were delayed as well.

The Kyiv Independent interviewed sources in the military or their family members, including in the 110th. Names have been omitted to protect sources from retaliation.

Some of the fighting positions near Avdiivka had gone unreinforced for many years, and were inadequate to repel a Russian attack, according to soldier testimonials to multiple Kyiv Independent reporters, backed by expert opinion. This is ironic, as some have predicted that Avdiivka would be a tough nut to crack due to a decade of continuous reinforcement.

“To be honest, we have been looking at Avdiivka for some time wondering where this idea of it being ‘one of the most heavily fortified towns’ comes from,” Paroinen said.

“Ukrainian fortifications were in most places built during the 2014-2022 pre-invasion period. And like in many other areas of the front, Ukrainian forces have done much less preparation in depth when compared to the Russians.”

In the mobilized soldier’s description, commanders from other brigades sometimes visited his positions, saw how bad they were, and openly refused to send their men there to die. By the time the brigade decided to fortify these positions, they were under such heavy fire, it was impossible to begin.


Press officer Sekach said that the front line was changing too quickly to meaningfully fortify any positions, which would imply that efforts were being made when Russians were at the door.

Fire support was another problem — when the Ukrainian infantry needed it, it rarely materialized. This is the same thing that Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Bakhmut had told the Kyiv Independent in February 2023.

According to one soldier who fought on the Avdiivka front, he once had a clear visual on a Russian truck packed with munitions next to the Russian positions. No matter how many times the Ukrainians tried to call in a strike on it, none ever came — the munitions were distributed to the enemy and used on the defenders.
One factor was the dearth of ammunition, spent during Ukraine's summer offensive, and the procurement system still has problems.

The issue goes beyond fire support. Experts said that Ukraine conducted a lot fewer counterattacks than it needed to win the fight against its more numerous, better-equipped foe that doesn’t value the lives of its men.

“Ukraine cannot just defend everywhere,” Grant said. “It has to counterattack and push forward. You can’t degrade Russia.”

The 110th is largely staffed by reservists whose training and headquarters interaction is not always to the level of professional soldiers. To their credit, they have been very scrappy and fended off multiple professional Russian brigades on Donetsk’s doorstep since they were deployed there in March 2022.

Experts and sources didn’t just single out one unit, saying that poor leadership and the conditions that give rise to it exist in some units in different parts of the country. Experts said that Ukraine’s new Defense Ministry and military leadership should immediately tackle these kinds of shortcomings.

“What happened in Avdiivka crystallizes the issues in the Ukrainian military that Syrskyi will need to address this year,” Kofman said.

Brutal read: Trapped and left for dead, injured Ukrainian soldiers in Avdiivka exchanged desperate messages as the town fell

Avdiivka was on the front lines of war between Kyiv and Moscow for almost a decade. Fierce fighting raged there for months following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.

The withdrawal was far less drawn out. When the Ukrainian military abandoned the town on Saturday, handing Russia its most important victory in months, it was rapid and ruthless.

“Leave the 300 (wounded),” one soldier was purportedly ordered, “and burn everything.”

Hours after Russian troops raised their flags over Avdiivka, one horrifying story has emerged of several injured soldiers who failed to escape – and were later killed as Russian troops reached their position.
The Ukrainian servicemen there were part of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, occupying a position known as Zenit. As Russian forces advanced through Avdiivka last week, Zenit came under heavy attack.

Soldiers stationed there made desperate attempts to escape the ruins of the town, according to Viktor Biliak, one of the soldiers there. In a long and often bleak Instagram post Biliak described the dangerous route that lay ahead.

“There was zero visibility outside. It was just about survival. A kilometer across the field. A bunch of blind kittens guided by a drone. Enemy artillery. The road to Avdiivka is filled with Ukrainian corpses,” he wrote.

Eventually a commander informed him over the radio that the wounded would not be evacuated. Six men were left behind. The messages they left were hard to read, Biliak said.

“Their despair, their doom. It will always stay with us. The most courageous are the ones who die,” he said.

Among those trapped and surrounded was a 30-year-old junior sergeant and combat medic from Dnipropetrovsk region named Ivan Zhytnyk, call-sign “Django.” He’d been fighting in Avdiivka for nearly two years, as had the 110th Brigade.

He was badly injured and could not move.

On Thursday, he was able to contact his sister Kateryna and other family members in an emotional video call, a call that has since received widespread coverage on Ukrainian and social media.

Kateryna asks her brother: “So, what, they … no one is coming? Your guys are there too (with you), or are you alone?”

Zhytnyk replied: “Everyone left, everyone retreated. They told us that a car would pick us up. I have two broken legs, shrapnel in my back. I can’t do anything …

He said there were a half-dozen soldiers at the Zenit position, four of whom, like Zhytnyk, could not walk.

Kateryna responds: “I don’t know how to … who to call,” she said while crying. “I can’t figure it out. Who will pick you up?”

No one did.
 
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