*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (5 Viewers)

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

Putin on his endgame:

“They [the West] say that they want to achieve the strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield. What does this mean for Russia? For Russia, this means the end of its statehood. This means the end of the 1000-year history of the Russian state. I think this is clear to everyone. And then the question arises: why should we be afraid? Isn't it better for us to go to the end? This is elementary formal logic”

x.com

x.com

This evening, multiple Ukrainian attack drones successfully hit Russia's Yeysk Airbase, home to the 859th Naval Aviation Training Center and multiple Russian strike aircraft, starting a large fire.

Multiple secondary explosions could be seen emerging from the blaze at the base.

x.com

x.com

The Office of the President of Romania has released a statement that the provision of a PATRIOT fire unit to Ukraine is contingent on identifying a replacement asset.

This likely means Ukraine will not receive a PATRIOT FU from Romania in the near-future.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/20/us-says-ukraine-can-hit-inside-russia-anywhere-00164261

The U.S. has told Ukraine it can use American-supplied weapons to hit any Russian forces attacking from across the border — not just those in the region near Kharkiv, according to U.S. officials.

Two U.S. officials, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the discussions, maintained that allowing Ukraine to hit inside Russia in response to counterfire from anywhere across the border is not a shift in policy since the Kharkiv decision was made. Originally, the move was characterized only in the context of the ongoing Kharkiv assault, but that did not exclude the possibility of hitting back against other cross-border attacks, said one of the officials.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

Ukraine unveils ST-1, an autonomous mine-detecting drone that scans 1 hectare in 4 hours—4x faster than humans.

Flying at 70cm with dual metal detector coils, it overcomes self-interference for accurate ground scanning, says Dmytro Titov, AILAND SYSTEMS CEO.

x.com

x.com

Apparently, Russian air defenses shot down a Kamov Ka-29 helicopter of the Russian Navy over the Crimea last night, in a new friendly fire incident between Russian forces.

Fighter-bomber says that the incident occurred amid a simultaneous Ukrainian attack with unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) and UAVs. While Russian helicopters took off to fight off the USVs, many aerial targets (UAVs) appeared on the radar screens of Russian air defense systems.

Due to a poor IFF, Russian air ADs must've mistakenly fired at a Russian Ka-29 helicopter, instead of a Ukrainian UAV.
The friendly fire incident could've actually occurred near Anapa in Krasnodar Krai of Russia, not in the Crimea as mentioned in the post above.

x.com

x.com

Fighter bomber also says Ukraine is using UAVs with its naval drones, which creates problems because Russia counters naval drones with helicopters and increases the risk of friendly fire from Russian air defenses. He says Ukraine also launches rockets/missiles when Russian attack aviation is operating in order to increase the chances of a friendly fire shoot down.

Russian forces claim to have deployed FAB-3000 glide bomb for first time

A video shared by a pro-Kremlin blogger purports to show Russian bombers striking a Ukrainian military target in the village of Liptsy in Kharkiv Oblast.

kyivindependent.com

The Russian military has allegedly attacked Kharkiv Oblast with a FAB-3000 high-explosive aerial bomb, Russian sources claimed on June 20.

x.com

x.com

Fighter bomber questions the benefits of the FAB-3000. He says a Su-34 can carry 3 FAB-1500M54 UMPK glide bombs at a time but only one FAB-3000. He also says the era of UMPK with cheap satellite guidance systems is coming to and end due to greater EW capabilities reducing their accuracy. 2/

S. Korea's level of arms supply to Ukraine hinges on Russia's actions: presidential office​

"There are various options for providing weapons, and our position on the recent developments between Russia and North Korea depends on how Russia approaches the situation going forward," the official said in a phone call with Yonhap News Agency.

South Korea has only supplied non-lethal items and equipment to Ukraine for its war against Russia under a policy that bans providing lethal weapons to countries at war.

Among potential weapons under consideration are 155-mm artillery shells, as well as air defense systems, which are needed in Ukraine, according to government sources.

Ukraine's 24th brigade bolsters defense of Chasiv Yar, says fighting 'extremely difficult'

Units of the 24th separate mechanized brigade have been redeployed to bolster the defense of the front-line town of Chasiv Yar, where Russian forces are "constantly organizing massive frontal assaults and trying to bypass the settlement from the north and south."

kyivindependent.com

Units of Ukraine's 24th separate mechanized brigade have been redeployed to bolster the Armed Forces' defense of the front-line town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, the brigade's press service announced via Facebook on June 20.

After capturing Avdiivka in February, Russian forces shifted their focus toward Chasiv Yar, a town on a relatively higher elevation, which could potentially open the way to further advances into the oblast.

"The situation in and around the city is extremely difficult," the announcement said.

Russian forces are "constantly organizing massive frontal assaults and trying to bypass the settlement from the north and south."

EU Agrees Russia Sanctions Hitting LNG Shipments, Chinese Firms

The European Union has approved a new package of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, seeking to tighten the enforcement of restrictions by widening the scope of measures to its network of accomplices and hit Moscow’s revenues.
The measures target Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers, transshipments of liquefied natural gas, and companies in third countries, including China, that have been helping the Kremlin get around earlier trade restrictions.
The package — the bloc’s 14th since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine — includes:
-A ban on the transshipment of Russian LNG to third countries via the EU, including a prohibition on reloading services as well as ship-to-ship and ship-to-shore transfers
-A prohibition on providing investments, services and goods to new LNG projects in Russia
-Sanctions on a dozen vessels that are part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, used to get around a price cap on oil and other trade measures
-Banning EU firms operating outside Russia from directly connecting to the Russian Central Bank’s Swift-equivalent SPFS, and banning transactions with listed firms using the system to circumvent sanctions
-Forbidding EU operators from transacting with listed banks that are enabling trade in technologies and goods used in weapons or needed to make them
-Restricting trade with dozens of new listings, including companies in China, Turkey and India
-Restrictions on political parties, think tanks and media providers to accept Russian sources of funding
-Ramping up the checks and due diligence required of EU companies whose goods are still making their way to Russia, often through networks of intermediaries that include subsidiaries and sub-contractors
-Export controls on more chemicals, manganese ores, plastics, electronics and excavating machinery that could be used for military purposes as well as restrictions on helium imports
-Tightening measures on existing air and road transport restrictions, as well as new controls on Russian intellectual property rights registrations in the EU and the import of Ukrainian cultural goods that may have been looted by Russia
The package will now need to be formally adopted by member states before it enters into force, and could still change during that process.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia, China find payments workaround as US sanctions net widens, sources say

Russia-China trade options have narrowed since the U.S. imposed sanctions last week on the only Russian bank branch in China, but President Vladimir Putin's Chinese visit last month has helped ensure the two countries have payment alternatives for now, three sources said.
Since Putin's visit, specially authorised banks have been set up in border regions which allow Russian firms to open non-resident accounts (NRA) with Chinese banks, a step that has become more important since VTB's Shanghai branch was targeted with sanctions, they told Reuters.
Trade between Russia and China ballooned to a record $240 billion in 2023. Maintaining the flow of income and goods, which is crucial to the Kremlin, depends on ensuring smooth payments.
The workaround, which involves smaller, regional banks that can for the time being fly below the U.S. sanctions radar, shows how Moscow and Beijing are having to take increasingly complex steps to ensure bilateral payments continue to be made but at the same time potentially exposing some Chinese financial firms to U.S. sanctions as they look to circumvent restrictions.
Using banks in border regions makes it easier for go-betweens working on behalf of Russian companies to flit between them. The scheme, involving small banks with limited or no business with countries which Russia considers unfriendly, also reduces the potential fallout for China.
However, the window for them to carry out payments for Russian companies may be narrowing. A senior U.S. Treasury official said this month it is working to identify smaller banks with weaker compliance departments that are still helping to process transactions that aid Russia's military output.
Trade with Beijing has become more important to Moscow since it sent its army into Ukraine in February 2022. Russian banks were subsequently blocked from the SWIFT global payments system, while many Western countries and companies severed ties with Russia.
"After (Putin's) visit, banks have appeared in one of China's provinces that are opening NRA accounts for Russian companies on Chinese territory," said one banking source, who declined to disclose names due to sanctions risks.
Only a handful of banks, located near the border in the northeast, still work with Russia, a second banking source said.
"We are not even talking about ... large and medium-sized banks today," the person said. "None of them work with Russia. This is the problem that we must really recognise."
The People's Bank of China and China's banking regulator, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, did not respond to requests for comment.
After more Chinese firms were sanctioned by the U.S., many may have decided to stop any business with Russia and imports from China could drop, said Yevgeny Kogan, investment banker and professor at Russia's Higher School of Economics.
Sanctions on Russian bank subsidiaries in China also create issues, he added.

x.com

x.com

Putin says Russia is considering changing its nuclear doctrine.

He claims this is in response to western experts who want to lower the nuclear threshold, but that conversation is happening in Russia – where influential academics want to nuke Poland.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

“The Netherlands and another country are going to supply Ukraine with a Patriot system. Outgoing Defense minister Kajsa Ollongren announced on Friday that they succeeded in collecting parts that can then form a complete system.”

x.com

x.com

Politico writes about the return of the Ukraine’s emergency blackouts, while my friend Mariia Popova in Kyiv tells why this time it feels much worse than in the first winter of the war - basically, we dread what is to come 1/
politico.com/news/2024/06/2…

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/21/russia-ukraine-war-blackouts-00164395

Ukraine is experiencing a new wave of rolling blackouts due to Russian attacks that have destroyed half of the country's power generation capacity

We are adapting: generators, power banks, and flashlights are back in fashion. But will we freeze in the winter? 2/
Ukraine has lost 9.2 gigawatts or 50 % of electricity generating capabilities. We currently are importing 1.7 gigawatts from European countries and this is the max due to technological restrictions.

With the help of the world we can rebuild a couple of gigs, but not more 3/
And Russia will continue to pound at everything that is still operational. That's why the recent news about more Patriot systems to Ukraine are very encouraging. The only regret - and it is really a scandal - that it took so long for the West to come together to do it. Again 4/
The current blackouts in Kyiv are the worst since the early months of the war, affecting traffic, work environments, and daily life for residents. People are preparing for winter, some are looking to leave 5/
At our university we have been looking at all options, preparing for the worst. We have even considered to buy or rent a building and turn it into a capsule hotel / cowering space so that we can all live and work together 6/
Other ideas included converting some of the study halls and bomb shelters in hostels at KSE university. But after speaking with the authorities, we have been reassured that having generators will be enough, that the heating in Kyiv won't be destroyed, the food will be there 7/
But the anxiety among people is palpable. Students, faculty, staff are constantly asking questions about what it will be like in the fall and what they have to prepare for. 8/
Mariia has written that this time the situation feels tougher psychologically than when the Russians invaded first, even though it is summer and we're not freezing . It's likely due to the awareness of what lies ahead. 9/
But then she says that whenever she feels like complaining, she recalls March 2022 and the question of "where to buy some food." Then the summer gasoline crisis and the queues at gas stations. Then the 12 degrees in the bedroom last winter. It immediately feels easier. 10X

x.com

x.com

The Ukrainian Army released an extensive video of the infamous Russian turtle tanks. They are far worse than expected.

Underneath that garbage is an old T-62M. The gun is not operational, there is no ammunition and the turret is locked in place. The panels are sheet metal removed from all kinds of scrap metal. Visibility is expectedly atrocious. The engine burns like it is running on coal and you can hear them miles away. Worst of all, that pile of Russian scrap metal was taken out by drones, so by something they supposedly should be protected, so even the EW component is apparently rubbish.

I have covered several wars where rebels or weaker factions were forced to improvise with what they got, but I have rarely seen something so utterly terrible than this Russian thing. Remember, when it comes to logistics then there is no difference in transporting a T-90M or this. Both eat up space, time and manpower. In many cases you have to make them even barely work before sending to the front. It is relatively wasteful. You would never do anything like this unless you are absolutely desperate.

The fact that Russia has to resort to haul literal garbage is so telling and reveals once more in what condition the Russian army and logistics behind it is. It also proves that the longer this war goes on, the weaker the quality of the Russian army becomes (which btw. was never really good in the first place). They have to dig deeper in their rotting storage facilities and deploy literal garbage.

x.com

x.com

Kharkiv Oblast, a German-supplied PzH 2000 SPH in Ukrainian service destroys a Russian artillery position on Russian territory with accurate 155mm fire.

Recent changes in German policy allowed Ukrainian forces to use their PzH 2000s to hit Russian military targets in Russia.

x.com

x.com

BILD accompanied a Ukrainian PzH 2000 crew for multiple days in the Kharkiv region and published a short report about the German-donated self-propelled howitzer on a combat mission firing on Russian territory, destroying an advancing Russian unit.

As always, I did the translation and added subtitles for you. Interestingly, WELT (which belongs to Axel Springer SE as BILD does) published a little bit of different footage of the same report and provided a bit of additional information.

After several shots, it is said to have become “unbearably hot” in the PzH 2000. Several commanders are said to have confirmed that instruments even failed.

The Ukrainians are said to already be working on a solution. They are planning to install air conditioning systems from decommissioned buses in the PzH 2000 to get the problem under control.

Talked to @Jeff21461 about this, and he says that this is an unusual situation and might have reasons such as an unusual hot day or extensive combat use. For me, this also is very unusual, since it's the first time in two years I have heard about such an issue and Ukraine is really not the hottest environment where the PzH 2000 has been deployed in the past.

For those who are interested in even more details. I advise you to have a look at the Twitter page of @bjoernstritzel. He has published a lot of interesting information and raw footage.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

1/3 Another Russian #AI claim: A Novosibirsk-based company, together with the Moscow-based "Ploshchad" enterprise, will will supply the military with 3,000 FPV drones "equipped with an autopilot with artificial intelligence."
2/3 "If the drone's communications is cut off, the AI holds the target in its sights, assumes the UAV control, and the drone attacks the target in unmanned mode that is impossible to jam with electronic warfare countermeasures.”
3/3 "An autopilot with a neural network sees its target using machine vision technology. While there has been no mass use of such drones with #AI so far, various Russian manufacturers have supplied several dozen "smart drones" for testing in combat conditions."

Serbia turns blind eye to its ammunition ending up in Ukraine

Moscow-friendly Belgrade exported about €800mn of shells to western allies since 2022

www.ft.com

Serbia has been discreetly stepping up sales of ammunition to the west that ends up bolstering the defence of Ukraine — even though it is one of only two European countries not to join western sanctions against Russia.

Estimates shared with the Financial Times put Serbia’s ammunition exports that have come to Ukraine via third parties at about €800mn — a sum President Aleksandar Vučić indicated was broadly accurate — since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He presented the situation as a business opportunity, insisting he would not take sides in the war.

“This is a part of our economic revival and important for us. Yes, we do export our ammunition,” he said in an interview. “We cannot export to Ukraine or to Russia . . . but we have had many contracts with Americans, Spaniards, Czechs, others. What they do with that in the end is their job.

“Even if I know [where the ammunition ends up], that’s not my job. My job is to secure the fact that we deal legally with our ammunition, that we sell it . . . I need to take care of my people, and that’s it. That’s all I can say. We have friends in Kyiv and in Moscow. These are our Slav brothers.”

Asked if the €800mn figure was in the right “ballpark”, he said not over one year but “maybe in two or three years, something like that”.

Russia launches 'massive' overnight attack on Ukraine power grid

Several people are wounded after Russia targeted Ukraine's energy network for a second time this week.

www.bbc.com

Ukrainian energy facilities have come under a massive attack from Russia, in the latest onslaught targeting the country's power grid, officials say.
It is the eighth time Russia has launched an attack on energy infrastructure facilities in the past three months, Ukraine’s energy ministry said.
Air defence systems shot down 12 of 16 missiles and all 13 drones launched by Russia at several regions through the night, the Ukrainian air force said.
Later on Saturday officials in Kharkiv in north-eastern Ukraine said three people were killed and at least 18 injured by Russian guided bombs, with at least four explosions heard in the city.
The overnight attacks on infrastructure wounded two energy workers in the central Zaporizhzhia region, and damaged equipment in the western city of Lviv, officials said.
In the south-western region of Ivano-Frankivsk, the authorities also reported damage to houses and a kindergarten.

x.com

x.com

NEW UPDATES ON RUSSIAN STATE TERRORISM IN PRAGUE:

- The 26-year old Colombian terrorist run by Russian intelligence first flew from Colombia to Warsaw. His handler tasked him via Telegram where Russian intelligence found him in a wider group where the Colombian was searching for (normal civilian) jobs. The Colombian was poor, had very basic military training, was a construction worker

- In Poland, he was tasked to „take photos of specific buildings“ and received up to 5 000 zloty in cash (some 1250 USD) by a proxy of Russian intelligence (so not a Russian inteligence offer himself, but an intermediary - in this case with Russian citizenship)

- then he flew to Prague where he was tasked to torch specific public transport buses with reward of 3000 USD. Russian intelligence told him it was a commercial plan - an insurance fraud where the Colombian burns the buses owned by a private businessman who will later claim insurance payments. In reality, these were Prague City Public Transport buses.

- individual Czech Parliamentarians are calling this „act of state terrorism by Russian Federation against the Czech Republic“.

- HOW DO WE KNOW? Czech Police and Czech intelligence agencies briefed Czech Parliament Security Committee in a classified session and four participants confirmed these details to Czech journalists (of
@enkocz)

 

[Chadstroma]

South Korea breaks neutrality to arm Ukraine against Russia​

The strategic partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea has unexpectedly positively affected Ukraine. This primarily concerns breaking South Korea's reluctance to supply weapons to Ukraine. Here's what one of the world's giants in arms production will donate to Ukraine first.

South Korean OSINT analyst Mason_8178, in his post on X (formerly Twitter), estimates that the first delivery from South Korea for the Armed Forces of Ukraine may include 4.1-inch and 6.1-inch artillery ammunition and AT-1K Raybolt anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM).

Artillery ammunition - a key resource for Ukraine​

Ukraine is currently dependent on artillery ammunition supplies from the West. One of the largest producers of 6.1-inch artillery ammunition is South Korea, which has powerful production capabilities due to its geopolitical situation.

Due to its neutrality policy, South Korea has avoided actively supporting Ukraine until now. However, this does not mean that nothing has been happening in this regard, as South Korea indirectly helped Ukraine by replenishing the American ammunition stockpile.

The assistance will be direct this time, with hundreds of thousands of shells potentially reaching Ukraine. This support could be crucial at the end of 2024 if Americans halt arms supplies due to internal situations in the country, such as the presidential elections, which Donald Trump may win.

The leading producer of artillery ammunition in South Korea, Poongsan Corporation, offers a full range of ammunition, from the most straightforward solutions to those capable of engaging targets at 37 miles.

In the first group, we have unguided KM107 shells, a variant of the American M107 shells. They contain 14.6 lbs of TNT encased in a cast steel body with a percussion fuse and can engage targets at up to 18.6 miles when fired from artillery systems with a long gun, such as the K9 Thunder or the Polish Krab.

Additionally, South Korea has K305 DPICM shells with a similar range but with a cluster warhead containing a mix of 88 bomblets based on the American DPICM. The second type is the K307 shells, which weigh 102.3 lbs and are equipped with a gas generator, increasing their firing range to 25.5 miles. A cluster variant K310 containing 49 K221 DPICM bomblets was also developed in this case.

Theoretically, the delivery of K315 shells, a recent innovation, is also possible. These shells have a gas generator and a rocket booster capable of striking targets at 37 miles. Similar to the American M549A1, they have a slightly reduced TNT charge compared to the K307 due to the need to allocate space for the rocket motor and fuel.

AT-1K Raybolt - the Asian FGM-148 Javelin​

The AT-1K Raybolt is an ATGM introduced into service in the Korean armed forces in 2017 and has also been purchased by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Structurally, the AT-1K Raybolt, similar to the FGM-148 Javelin, is a "fire and forget" weapon that attacks targets from above with a powerful tandem HEAT warhead capable of penetrating up to 35 inches of armor behind reactive armor, according to the manufacturer.

This ensures it can eliminate any Russian tank without the slightest problem and provides high safety for its operators, who can immediately evacuate after firing. Additionally, the system can be safely fired from enclosed spaces.

The target is hit by an optoelectronic head that detects the thermal image of the target. The system has a striking range of up to 1.9 miles, which is less than that of, for example, late Javelins or the Akeron MP, but it makes the AT-1K Raybolt a lightweight solution, with the total weight of the launcher and missile being around 44 lbs.

This is huge. As I outlined before, S. Korea is a major exporter of weapons and has many home grown very well capable weapon systems. The opening of S. Korea to supply, directly, artillery ammunition is helpful as well. You can bet the quality of which is going to be far superior than anything the Russian get from N. Korea.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia tells US: we need to talk, but Ukraine must be on agenda​

Story by Reuters

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia sees a pressing need for security talks with the United States but they must be "comprehensive" and include the subject of Ukraine, the Kremlin said on Friday.

"It is impossible to rip out any individual segments from the general complex of accumulated problems, and we will not do this," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked if Moscow was ready to talk to Washington about nuclear risks.

"So we are open to dialogue, but to a broad comprehensive dialogue that covers all dimensions, including the current dimension related to the conflict around Ukraine, related to the direct involvement of the USA in this conflict," Peskov told reporters.

The United States rejects Russia's contention that by arming Ukraine it has become a direct protagonist in a war aimed at inflicting a crushing "strategic defeat" on Moscow. The U.S. says any negotiations over the war are a matter for Ukraine.

The Russian stance, as outlined by Peskov, is not new. But he told reporters that the list of topics that Russia and the United States needed to discuss was growing.

"Overall, this dialogue is very much required," Peskov said. "It is needed because problems are piling up, and there are a lot of problems associated with the global security architecture."

From Washington's point of view, it is Putin who, in the third year of the war in Ukraine, is adding to the list of security concerns.

This week he visited nuclear-armed North Korea, signed a mutual defence agreement with its leader Kim Jong Un and said he might supply Russian weapons to North Korea in response to the Western arming of Ukraine.

Putin also reiterated on Thursday that he was considering reviewing Russia's doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons. The last remaining arms control treaty that limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads that Russia and the United States can deploy is due to expire in 2026.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine receives ammunition from Serbia through third countries​

Story by Oleksandra Zimko

The ammunition Serbia supplies to Western countries ends up in Ukraine. Ukrainian troops could have already received ammunition worth several hundred million euros, reports Financial Times.

According to the Financial Times, Ukrainian troops could have already received approximately 800 million euros worth of Serbian ammunition through third countries. According to the newspaper, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic himself agrees with this assessment, although he assures that Serbia is not a party to Russia's war against Ukraine.

"This is part of our economic revival and it is important for us. Yes, we export our ammunition. We can't export to Ukraine or Russia, but we had a lot of contracts with Americans, Spaniards, Czechs and other countries. What they eventually do with it is their business," Vucic said in an interview with the FT.

As the Serbian president emphasized, it is not his business that these munitions can get to Ukraine. What matters to him is that they are sold legally abroad.

During the Cold War, Serbia, which was then part of Yugoslavia, had a thriving arms industry and was a producer of Soviet-standard ammunition. The same kind of ammunition that is still used by the Ukrainian army. Today, according to Vucic, Serbia has a great opportunity, as its ammunition is cheaper than Western ammunition, and the scale of Serbian exports can grow.

Last year, when the leak of secret Pentagon documents revealed that Serbian ammunition could be supplied to Ukraine, Vucic denied it. Moreover, he assured that Serbian export contracts provided for a ban on re-exports to Ukraine.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia and North Korea’s military deal formalizes a bustling arms trade

A new analysis of internal Russian trade data illuminates how shipments of suspected North Korean munitions were distributed through Russia.
The data, obtained by the global security nonprofit C4ADS and provided to The Washington Post, covers shipments from August through January and shows that more than 74,000 metric tons of explosives were distributed from two ports in Russia’s Far East to 16 sites mainly along the country’s western borders near Ukraine. That weight is equal to about 1.6 million artillery shells of the type Russia has used in the war.
According to C4ADS, the sites the goods arrived at indicated they were munitions, despite the documentation referring to them as explosives.
The data does not include the origin of the shipments, but an analysis by The Post and C4ADS found evidence of Russian ship movements between North Korea and Russia during the same period.
“This is the closest thing to proof of Russian-North Korean connection when it comes to munitions transfers, and this proves that the Russians and North Koreans were lying” in denying the transfers, said Go Myong-hyun, senior research fellow at Seoul’s Institute for National Security Strategy, which is affiliated with South Korea’s intelligence agency.
“It really gives more credibility to the fact that North Korea is helping Russia to conduct its war in Ukraine,” Go said. “Unless we have photos, or the North Koreans say, ‘Look, we’ve been transferring shells to Russia,’ or something like that, this is the best we can get.”
Analysis of satellite imagery and marine traffic data by The Post and C4ADS shows that Russian-flagged vessels linked to the country’s military were docked in the North Korea port of Rajin and then later at the Russian ports of Vostochny and Dunai. Most of the explosives departed to sites in Russia within a week of arrival, according to the data.
These vessels — the Lady R, the Angara, the Maria and the MAIA-1 — are owned by Russian companies closely linked to the country’s military. While it is impossible to verify exactly what the ships were carrying, the United States and South Korea have previously publicly named the four vessels as involved in transporting North Korean weapons to Russia based on satellite imagery and press reports.

The shipments went to 16 sites across Russia, 12 of them near known ammunition storage facilities, according to the trade data, which C4ADS obtained from a person with access to documentation in the Russian transportation and logistics industry, whom The Post is not identifying due to safety risks. This indicated to experts that these explosives were likely to be munitions.
The facilities near the sites listed in the data are affiliated with artillery and rocket storage, and some can store artillery and other armored vehicle rounds, said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who reviewed the findings at the request of The Post.
There also were facilities that report to the department within Russia’s Ministry of Defense that oversees the procurement of weapons for the Russian military, known as GRAU, and those facilities typically store artillery rounds, rockets, missiles and many other types of ammunition, Massicot said.
“While we cannot be sure of what exactly they are delivering, the explosive labels … and delivery to storage bases near Ukraine and to sensitive GRAU ammunition storage facilities elsewhere across Russia, suggests these shipments are likely delivering a variety of ammunition types to Russia, from artillery rounds to rockets,” Massicot said.

x.com

x.com

A surprise announcement from Program Director Mike Evans at Fires Symposium that AM General provided a test article of their 105 mm Hawkeye Mobile Howitzer System to Ukraine in April 2024.

Hawkeye is now undergoing operational testing and evaluation in Ukrainian service.

Video: https://x.com/sambendett/status/1804860377970217046

Ukraine's Kharkiv Regional Council is launching a project to build and deliver heavy "Vampire" multirotor drones to the special forces. Vampires can go after many targets, including Russian tanks and other heavy armored vehicles.

x.com

x.com

GIF:

Russia can cover up to 𝟔𝟒% of Ukraine’s air space if Russia deploys S-400 air defense launchers within Russia outside of the range of HIMARS/GMLRS.

Vs

Russia can cover 𝟑𝟖% of Ukraine's air space if Ukraine can use ATACMS to deny such deployments in ATACMS range.

Russian air defenses will reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian F-16s if the US does not allow Ukrainian forces to use ATACMS to destroy Russian air defense systems in Russian territory.

x.com

x.com

What appears to be the first time in history when a video of the M30 DPICM GMLRS missile strike has been published. Burchak, Zaporizhzhia front, strike on the accumulation of the Russian infantry.

Russia could reduce decision time for use of nuclear weapons, lawmaker says

Russia, the world's biggest nuclear power, could reduce the decision-making time stipulated in official policy for the use of nuclear weapons if Moscow believes that threats are increasing, parliament's defence committee chairman said.
The war in Ukraine has triggered the biggest confrontation between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, with President Vladimir Putin last month saying that Russia might change its official nuclear doctrine setting out the conditions under which such weapons could be used.
On Sunday Andrei Kartapolov, the head of the Russian lower house of parliament's defence committee, was quoted by state news agency RIA as saying that if threats increased then the decision-making time for using such weapons could be changed.
"If we see that the challenges and threats increase, it means that we can correct something in (the doctrine) regarding the timing of the use of nuclear weapons and the decision to make this use," RIA quoted Kartapolov as saying.
Kartapolov, who once commanded Russian forces in Syria and now serves as a lawmaker from the ruling United Russia party, added that it was too early to speak about specific changes to the nuclear doctrine.
Russia's 2020 nuclear doctrine sets out when its president would consider using a nuclear weapon: broadly as a response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction or conventional weapons "when the very existence of the state is put under threat".

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia's provision of precision weapons to N.K. would leave no line for Seoul's aid to Ukraine: official

National security adviser Chang Ho-jin said Sunday that South Korea will not be bound by anything with regard to its assistance to Ukraine if Russia provides North Korea with precision weapons.

Director of National Security Chang made the remark during a TV appearance, underscoring the point that Seoul's decision on whether to provide weapons to Ukraine depends on how Russia's military cooperation with North Korea goes.

"I would like to emphasize that it all depends on what Russia will do," Chang said on KBS TV. "Will there be any line remaining for us if Russia gives precision weapons to North Korea?"

Chang's remark means South Korea could provide lethal weapons to Ukraine if Russia crosses the line.

South Korea has said it will reconsider its position of not supplying weapons to Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that commits each other to mutual defense and military technology cooperation.

 

[Chadstroma]

Slovenian President to sign security agreement with Zelenskyy in Kyiv​

Ukraine is defending the entire “structure of international law” and the security agreement will signify Slovenia’s “commitment to continue to help Ukraine as long as necessary,” she said, adding that the document is similar to ones previously signed by Kyiv with other countries.

According to the Slovenian newspaper Delo, the details of the visit have not yet been announced, but both sides have been working for several weeks to approve the agreement, with the involvement of the ministries of defense and foreign affairs.

Musar was among the world leaders who attended the June 15-16 Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.

Earlier, on June 13, Slovenian news outlet 24UR reported that Ljubljana had secretly donated 26 BOV armored amphibious vehicles, three M80A infantry fighting vehicles, HMMWVs, and drones during the six-month gap in U.S. military aid in early 2024.

Slovenia has also provided a significant amount of military, humanitarian, and financial assistance to Ukraine since early 2022. Most recently, the country contributed to the Czech-led initiative to purchase artillery ammunition for the Ukrainian armed forces, providing $1 million for this effort.

Ukraine has already signed bilateral security agreements with the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Denmark, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Latvia, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Iceland, Norway, the United States, and Japan.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Saboteurs Behind Arson Attack at German Factory

As fire swept through a sprawling factory owned by a company that manufactures air-defense systems, thick, dark smoke spread through a neighborhood of luxury villas and diplomatic residences. Police warnings blared, ordering people to shelter indoors.
In the aftermath of last month’s blaze on the outskirts of the German capital, German investigators said the cause was likely an accident. But Western security officials now say the fire was set by Russian saboteurs trying disrupt shipments of critical arms and ammunition to Ukraine.
European countries, seeking to avoid escalation, have been cautious about publicly blaming Moscow, but privately security officials say Russia appears to be stepping up attacks on civilian and military sites and people in Europe connected with efforts to help Ukraine fend off invading Russian troops.
The German factory belongs to Diehl Metal Applications, part of the Diehl group, a defense contractor. It produces and processes metal parts for various applications. The factory has since resumed operations.

The fire at the Diehl factory likely started in an area to which only a few people had access, according to an official familiar with the investigation, and all CCTV footage was lost in the fire. A number of recent incidents that had been considered accidents should be re-evaluated in light of recent events, the official said.
In the case of Diehl, electronic-communications intercepts that provided evidence of Russia’s involvement weren’t admissible in German courts, preventing authorities from clearly attributing the attack and pursuing criminal charges, two German officials said. The intercepts, which were passed on to the German government by an intelligence agency of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally, were first reported by the Bild newspaper in Germany.
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the security officials said, dozens of incidents have taken place across Europe, many potentially the work of Russia’s intelligence services aiming to curb arms production, pressure politicians and sow panic.
Targeting civilian infrastructure, such as wind farms and pipelines, also aims at intimidating investors as European economies are struggling, officials say. Data cables and pipelines in the Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions were cut by civilian ships linked to Russia, according to prosecutors, investigators and government officials.

The arson attack on the factory in Germany is believed to have been the work of experienced professionals, the security officials said. But, they said, Russia often uses civilians, predominantly criminals, recruited on social-media networks and paid in cryptocurrency.
Russian spymasters have turned to Telegram, a popular social-media app, for recruiting. And some people might not even be aware they are working for Russia. Moscow has increasingly sought to attract Russian-speaking Ukrainian migrants in Europe, intelligence and law-enforcement officials say.
“This is like the gig economy for sabotage and terror—perpetrators get recruited like Uber drivers, but the effect is often the same as with using professionals,” a senior Western security official said.

x.com

x.com

Looks like tonight’s ATACMS strike on Crimea might have hit something big.

The local Russian channels are already up in arms more so than usual.

x.com

x.com

Yevpatoriya in Crimea has been hit by Ukraine tonight with ATACMS missiles. Multiple loud explosions were heard by residents and there is a large fire

x.com

x.com

Russian radar position in Vitino, Crimea reportedly hit moments ago.

x.com

x.com

Ukraine struck targets in the town of Vitino in Crimea, located 162km from the front. An NIP-16 space communications complex, as well as potentially deep-space tracking radars, were struck by multiple 300km ATACMS missiles tonight

Ukraine's Defence Intelligence chief says whether Russia would use nuclear weapons if it lost control of Crimea

Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (DIU), believes that temporarily occupied Crimea could be cut off from arms supplies from Russia, and the Russian forces would not use tactical nuclear weapons in this case.

Source: Budanov in an interview with The Philadelphia Inquirer

Details: The DIU head believes that occupied Crimea can be cut off from arms supplies from Russia, and "we need to do everything to implement it".

At the same time, Budanov ridiculed the idea that Moscow would use tactical nuclear weapons if control over Crimea was threatened.

Quote: "First of all, I know what is really happening out there. Secondly, I know the real characteristics of Russian nuclear weapons.

What use would it have? We don’t have big concentrations of troops for which such nuclear weapons would be appropriate. And to break holes in our defence lines is possible with conventional means of warfare.
Besides, using nuclear weapons would lead to big political risks for Putin."

Russians occupy Novooleksandrivka and approach Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway – DeepState

The Russians have captured the village of Novooleksandrivka in Donetsk Oblast near the settlement of Ocheretyne and approached the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway.

Source: the DeepState analytical project

Quote: "The enemy has occupied Novooleksandrivka. As of today, the Russians are trying to gain a foothold on the western outskirts of the village. Ukraine’s defence forces are launching attacks on Russian personnel in order to prevent them from advancing further.

Only the settlement of Vozdvyzhenka separates the Russians from [reaching] the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway.

It is important to stop further advances by the enemy since the situation near Ocheretyne is repeating. Like then, the 47th, 68th and 25th brigades and seconded units are deterring the main offensive, exhausting their potential, while the flank is cracking."

x.com

x.com

Bohdan Krotevych, the chief of staff of the Azov Brigade, wrote a letter to the State Bureau calling for an investigation into a military general whom he believes has caused the deaths of more Ukrainian soldiers than any Russian general.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Černochová: First artillery for Ukraine under Czech plan to arrive by end of June

The first delivery of munitions to Ukraine sourced under a Czech artillery initiative will reach the country by the end of June, as promised, the Czech minister of defence, Jana Černochová, said on Sunday. Ms. Černochová told CNN Prima News that 18 countries had signed memoranda of understanding with Czechia on funding the artillery drive, with Iceland the most recent.

Ms. Černochová would not reveal if some of the artillery had already been delivered.

At the end of May, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said that 15 countries had signed up to the initiative, under which shells are being purchased for Ukraine from states outside NATO and the EU, pledging to contribute EUR 1.6 billion.

Ukraine’s tech hub creates drones that kill as a ‘swarm’

Hidden away in Kyiv’s silicon valley, weapons called Styx are built to talk to each other and fight as a team. Soldiers still call the shots — for now at least

www.thetimes.com

In an office block with no door numbers or names, Serhii Krupiienko slams his green, “military-grade” laptop on to the floor to prove its resilience. He hands it to me: “Have a go!” he urges with a grin. “It’s really fun. Throw it!”
This 39-year-old father of three has reason to be cheerful. He believes his start-up military technology (mil-tech) company is on the verge of a breakthrough that could give Ukraine an edge in its David and Goliath-like war with Russia.
Krupiienko says he will soon be ready to unleash something never before seen on the front line: an artificially intelligent “swarm” of up to seven drones capable of co-operating with each other to blow up tanks as well as snoop on the enemy.
What was once science fiction is reality: the first “killer robots” are here.
“It’s the equivalent of bringing the steam engine into the factory all those years ago,” says Krupiienko, a software engineer who studied at Stanford University, California. “Our core mission is to get robots to do the fighting, not humans.
“They can communicate with each other, making decisions on which one attacks, which gathers intelligence — and they’ll do it faster than any human.”
Until recently Krupiienko worked out of his Kyiv garage. Now “much to the satisfaction of my wife” he has moved out with his £2,000 laptop, drones and other gizmos, into an office stuffed with cardboard boxes and a ping-pong table where his 20 employees can let off steam.

“We don’t have as many human resources as Russia, they fight, they die, they send more people, they don’t care, but that’s not how we see war,” says Alex Bornyakov, deputy minister of digital transformation, explaining why Ukraine had invested so heavily in drones.
He tells me on Zoom about a piece of battlefield history made this year: a village in eastern Ukraine had been “liberated” entirely by “unmanned systems” when drones bombed the occupiers, killing many of them.
When Russia tried to reinforce its positions, more defenders were eliminated. The survivors retreated. “I see this as the future of conflict,” Bornyakov says.
He confirms that Ukraine is testing “swarm” technology with at least one other company besides Kupriienko’s. He insists, though, that Ukraine will not allow killing machines to go “completely autonomous”, adding: “A human has to confirm the target.”
But he acknowledges that “technically, they [the drones] could do it by themselves”.

Kupriienko repeats the official mantra about the imperative of keeping a “man in the loop”, meaning that a human commander approves each attack. But he accepts that some commanders will want to go fully autonomous to maximise the drone swarm’s potential. “We’re fighting a war here,” he says, “and we want to win.”
Like Bornyakov he envisages a “kill box”, or area containing only enemy targets, within which a swarm could attack at will.
As we talk, his mobile vibrates. It is a military officer asking when the technology will be ready. “They keep asking me, ‘when? when? when?’,” he says. The answer is by autumn. He calls the weapon Styx after the river in Greek mythology that separates the living from the dead. “We want to encourage Russians to cross it.”
Kurpriienko was one of 15 directors from Ukrainian drone companies who were invited to a conference at the Royal United Services Institute in London last month with Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UK defence chief.
“We saw jaws drop when the Ukrainian companies told the British what they had achieved,” says Daniel Bilak, one of the organisers. “It makes a lot of people nervous,” he adds. “But we can either embrace it or be left behind.”
Nothing exemplifies that doctrine more graphically than the strategy of Brave 1, a top-secret Ukrainian government “tech defence hub” in Kyiv, which harvests the brightest ideas to help the war effort.
“A lot of clever people [are] tinkering in their garages,” says Maksym Makarchyk, a spokesman who greets me in a gleaming office whose location I am forbidden from mentioning. “Anyone with an idea can go to our website, make their proposal and tap on ‘submit’.”

U.S. restrictions put key Russian air bases out of firing range, officials say

A new U.S. policy allowing Ukraine to fire certain American weapons at Russian territory has led to a reduction in some Russian attacks but still restricts the range enough that it prevents Ukraine from hitting key airfields, two Ukrainian officials said. Those airfields are used by Russian jets that drop the deadly glide bombs now inflicting the greatest damage on military positions and civilians.
The Ukrainian officials said the United States has restricted Ukraine to firing less than 100 kilometers, or about 62 miles, from the border. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the rule. U.S. officials declined to specify the limitation but said the Ukrainians’ assertion of less than 100 kilometers was incorrect.

While officials in Kyiv do not want to be seen as publicly contradicting their American counterparts, it is clear that the Ukrainian military does not believe it has as much latitude as the statements from White House and Pentagon officials seem to suggest.
And the results of Ukrainian strikes in the three weeks since Washington approved Ukraine’s request to use certain Western weapons to hit Russian territory corroborate the Ukrainian description of a significantly restrictive range.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, reported this month that the U.S. policy limiting Ukraine’s usage of American weapons in Russia had effectively created “a vast sanctuary … which Russia exploits to shield its combat forces, command and control, logistics, and rear area support services that the Russian military uses to conduct its military operations in Ukraine.”
One Ukrainian defense official said that permission to use U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia “has definitely changed things. The enemy has certainly felt it, especially directly on the front line.”
But the official added, “Neither the range nor the category [of weapons] is sufficient.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

1/ QUICK THREAD: What is the role of combat UGVs at this point in the Ukraine war? I recently authored an article on the Russian combat UGV developments for the European Security and Defense magazine.
2/ The article is meant as a snapshot in time - to show what are the main UGV trends in the war by May 2024. Prior to its ill-fated invasion, Russian defense R&D worked on multiple UGV projects - but they were built in few numbers and tested in mostly...
3/ ...in controlled environments. The few Russian combat UGV tests that took place in Syria were also limited to a few vehicle samples over a short time. There appeared to be no widespread drills incorporating this new tech in combined arms formations.
4/ The Ukrainian defenders are making the battlefield extremely difficult for the Russian forces - especially with the use of FPV drones that have become a real nightmare for larger and heavy vehicles like tanks. Anything that moves can be seen, tracked and attacked.
5/ Therefore, the current trend is to use smaller, lighter, cheap and attritable UGVs for logistics and supply runs, evacuation, and ISR/combat - not unlike the trends in tactical UAVs, with FPVs becoming a weapon of choice over larger, more expensive UAVs.
6/ The Russian military's R&D efforts are not the only ones fielding such UGVs - there is also a massive volunteer/startup effort that works directly with soldiers to build such light UGVs directly at/near the front
7/ This is where things mostly stand at this point - and Ukraine's own Army of Robots is ahead of the Russian military in developing and fielding such combat UGVs. Give the article a read and let me know what you think!

x.com

x.com

Ukrainian forces demonstrate effective countermeasures against Russian Shahed drones, using the Soviet-era 2K22 Tunguska.

This mobile air defense system, featuring twin 30mm guns and surface-to-air missiles, proves its worth in modern warfare.

x.com

x.com

US-supplied HMMWVs in Ukrainian service, moving behind a hazy frontline in Donetsk Oblast.

x.com

x.com

Updated map from @Deepstate_UA showing Russian advances on the Pokrovsk and Vuhledar fronts.

x.com

x.com

Big detonation. Kurt & Company unit within the 28th mechanized brigade destroyed a Russian BMP disguised as a blyatbarn with an FPV drone, leading to a big kaboom.

x.com

x.com

Ukraine’s 110th Mechanized Brigade denied DeepState’s report that Russia has taken all of the village of Novooleksandrivka. DeepState then put out an updated report saying Russian troops are still trying to secure the village’s NW edge.

x.com

x.com

More on Russia's portable EW systems against FPV drones - the news report notes that soldiers assemble these themselves and turn them on only when the frequency analyzer indicates a drone near by.

x.com

x.com

One of Russia’s main defense electronics producers and research centers, NII Platan near Moscow, is on fire, with staff trapped inside. According to Platan’s archived website, its components are used in all Russian fighter jets, nuclear launch munitions, S-400 air defenses and various guided munitions.

 

[Dezbelief]

Redirect Notice

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has dimissed a top general after public criticism about excessive casualties and accusations of incompetence.

Lt Gen Yuriy Sodol had been in the post of commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since earlier this year.

Brig-Gen Andriy Hnatov has now been appointed in his stead.

Mr Zelensky did not give a reason for his decision, which he announced during his nightly video address on Monday.

However, only hours before, the chief of staff of the Azov Brigade, Maj Bohdan Krotevych, filed a complaint to the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI), alleging that Gen Sodol "had more Ukrainian soldiers killed than any Russian general".

Maj Krotevych wrote on Telegram that Gen Sodol was "not being investigated for the loss of regions and dozens of cities and the loss of thousands of soldiers".

"Sometimes it seems to me that the world sends us scum [to fight against] in order to unite us," Maj Krotevych wrote. "And the whole military understand who I'm talking about because 99% of the military hate him for what he does."

Maj Krotevych's post on Telegram was viewed over 800,000 times. He later praised the appointment of Gen Hnatov, saying he was a "very worthy officer".

Following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Gen Sodol took part in the defence of the city of Mariupol and battles near the eastern Ukrainian town of Volnovakha. Both locations are now under Russian control.

Gen Sodol was made commander of the Joint Forces since February 2024, when Oleksandr Syrskyy was appointed commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces.

Ukraine's military hierarchy has undergone considerable changes in recent months, as Russian forces make slow but steady advances in the east of the country.

Since the beginning of 2024, Kyiv's under-resourced forces have been struggling to hold the line.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have in recent months upped their attacks on Russian territory.

Kyiv has carried out multiple attacks on Russian oil refineries this year, arguing they are fair targets as they fuel Moscow's military.

And Moscow blamed Ukraine for a missile strike on occupied Crimea on Sunday, which officials say killed four people and injured over 100 more.

 

[thecatch]

The School of War podcast (which is a must-listen for any amateur military historian, of which we apparently have a few in this thread) is doing a series on the Ukraine war right now. The first episode (ep. 128) was very thought provoking.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley crew shot down a Russian FPV drone with its 25mm cannon.

x.com

x.com

Intense video of a night-time Ukrainian strike with an FPV drone on a Russian boat on the Dnipro river.

Russian soldiers can be seen jumping into the water while their vessel engulfs in flames.

x.com

x.com

Czech-supplied RM-70 Vampire in Ukrainian service, seen here sending a salvo of 122mm Grad rockets towards a Russian position in Eastern Ukraine.

x.com

x.com

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov by phone today.

Long post on a Russian mobilized soldier's account: https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1805893444964921844

Zelenskiy presents new joint forces commander to Ukraine troops

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy presented the new joint forces commander on Wednesday to troops defending the eastern frontline region of Donetsk.
Zelenskiy announced on Monday he was appointing Brigadier-General Andriy Hnatov to the post, which involves strategic planning of operations, replacing Lieutenant-General Yuri Sodol who had faced criticism over serious military setbacks.
Hnatov's main tasks include "preserving as many fighters' lives as possible" while repelling the invading Russian forces, Zelenskiy said in a video address posted on social media.

Exclusive: Russia's No.4 oil refinery restarts key unit damaged by drone, sources say

Russian oil producer Lukoil has restarted a key piece of equipment for oil processing at its NORSI refinery, Russia's fourth-largest, following a drone attack in March, two industry sources told Reuters on Wednesday.
The sources said the CDU-6 crude distillation unit, halted on March 12, resumed processing on June 22.
Lukoil did not respond to a request for comment.
The move is likely to ease worries over possible gasoline shortages at the time when the government is debating whether to continue with gasoline exports in July. A waiver for a ban on exports is due to expire at the end of this month.

The NORSI refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region, about 450 kilometres (280 miles) east of Moscow, can process around 17 million metric tons of oil per year, or 340,000 barrels per day. It typically produces 11% of Russia's gasoline.
One of the sources said the unit was running at around 60% of capacity, processing about 15,800 tons per day.
Before the attack, CDU-6 was able to process around 25,710 tons of oil per day, or around 9 million tons a year, exceeding the combined capacity of three other of the plant's primary units, CDU-1, CDU-2 and CDU-5.
NORSI processed 22,000 tons of oil per day on average when CDU-6 was offline. In February it processed around 42,250 tons per day on average.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Video: https://x.com/sambendett/status/1806060978531905706

Great report by @MGongadze on Ukraine's domestic drone manufacturing

x.com

x.com

Pyongyang announced early this week that it will be sending troops in the form of a military engineering unit to support Russian forces on the ground in the Donetsk region. The troops are expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as next month.

x.com

x.com

During Zelenskyy’s visit to Donetsk Oblast, the region’s head reported that its third, civilian-built defensive line is 90% finished.

Zelenskyy also said the Pokrovsk direction should be prioritized for UAV supplies.

x.com

x.com

Russian forces are currently conducting 15 to 30 assaults per day in the Pokrovsk direction, said Dmytro Bilyi, deputy commander of Ukraine’s 110th Mechanized Brigade, during Zelenskyy’s meeting with commanders of units fighting in the area.

The Ukrainian General Staff’s daily reports routinely put the number of Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk direction at well into the 40s. Perhaps Bilyi was referring only to his brigade’s specific area of responsibility.

x.com

x.com

Ukraine has lost half of its remaining power generation capability since March, leaving it with only about 18 GW from its pre-war 56 GW capacity, according to Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, CEO of Ukrenergo. This significant reduction has caused widespread energy deficits, exacerbated by ongoing Russian attacks.

Despite 1.7 GW of energy transfers from the EU, Ukraine still faces power shortages, even during the summer with lower consumption rates. DTEK's Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk highlighted a severe shortage in air defense missiles as a key factor, noting that Ukraine lacks sufficient missiles to counter the frequent Russian attacks, hindering efforts to repair and protect the energy infrastructure.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Military intelligence behind cyberattack on several providers in occupied Crimea, source confirms

Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) carried out a cyberattack on several of Russia's largest Internet providers operating in Russian-occupied Crimea on June 26, a source in the agency confirmed to the Kyiv Independent.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) carried out a cyberattack on several of Russia's largest Internet providers operating in Russian-occupied Crimea on June 26, a source in the agency confirmed to the Kyiv Independent.

Earlier in the day, Russian state-controlled news agency TASS, citing Russia's proxies, claimed DDoS attacks on a number of providers in the peninsula. Crimean residents have been warned about possible interruptions in Internet access.

The source has not revealed further details on the cyberattack.

HUR has reportedly carried out several cyberattacks in recent months. In early June, it claimed to target the websites of Russian ministries, including the country's Defense Ministry.

Ukraine’s head of military intelligence is behind Kyiv’s biggest victories this year. He sees no point in peace talks.

Asked whether Ukrainian troops could stop the current Russian offensive in the east, where Moscow has been making small but steady territorial gains, Budanov spoke plainly.
“The good news is that no Armageddon will emerge,” he told me. “The bad news is that the situation is quite difficult. It will remain like this for at least one month, and will not become easier.”

However, when I inquired whether Ukraine could hold one of the most hotly contested eastern towns, Chasiv Yar, which sits on high ground that bars a Russian advance across flatter steppes and toward large industrial cities, his reply was cryptic: “I will refrain from response.”
When I subsequently traveled to the Chasiv Yar area, the situation did not look good, and there was great bitterness among the troops over the many lives lost because Ukraine ran out of artillery shells and other vital supplies while Congress dawdled over whether to provide additional military aid.
Now, more artillery shells are arriving slowly, from the U.S. and Europe. “For sure, weapons delivery is faster than it was several months ago,” Budanov allowed, “but Ukraine’s needs are very high, which is why it has been strategically important for us to have the deliveries renewed. Still, there is a question of volume.”

Manpower is also a critical problem for Ukraine, with Moscow prepared to grind its troops up like meat while much smaller Ukraine is anxious to preserve its soldiers.
Budanov believes the answer to Russia’s superiority in manpower is battlefield technology, in which Ukraine has become a global leader, replacing humans on the battlefield whenever possible with new variants of drones and electronic warfare. “Technologies will have quite a significant meaning in this war,” he predicted, “so that we don’t fight the war until the last citizen’s left.”
Technology is key to one of Budanov’s most intensive projects: taking the war to Russia with long-range drones.
“I am a fan of this,” the intelligence chief said with an intensity that broke through his laconic style. “I have been advocating this since the very first days of the war, saying openly that so long as the war is contained on our territory, it will not affect Russia.
“That is why since spring 2022, we have started to conduct significant operations on Russian territory, and we will go further the more resources we have for this. And Russia has started to feel it.”
In other words, Vladimir Putin can no longer pretend to his people that this war doesn’t affect them.
“It is still not critical for Russia at this stage, but it has led to the situation when the average citizen in the European part of the Russian Federation for sure knows and feels that the war is ongoing and has experienced some of the explosions himself. It influences, even on a small scale now, their morale.”

Budanov believes that the Crimean Peninsula — captured by Moscow in 2014 and turned into a huge military base that controls most of Ukraine’s southern coast — can be cut off from resupply and forced into submission.
Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, has long argued that this would be the key to putting Putin on the defensive. “I share the opinion of Gen. Hodges, absolutely,” said the Ukrainian spy chief. “So we need to do everything to implement it.”

He believes that long-range ATACMS missiles, which Biden finally delivered to Ukraine in recent months, could ultimately take out the bridge. Those who claim ATACMS aren’t powerful enough to do the job are mistaken, he said. “They should read the technical manuals. The only question is their quantities, but principally speaking, these missiles will allow us to fulfill such a mission.”

Western arms reach Ukraine front lines, relieving some pressure

Western supplies of artillery shells, slowed by months of political wrangling in Washington before finally being released, have started to reach Ukrainian units on the front lines, relieving pressure on forces outnumbered by the Russians.
When Reuters reporters visited one artillery unit in Donetsk region, the focus of Russian troops' slow advance along the 1,000-km (600-mile) front, it fired its M-109 self-propelled howitzer as needed.
In the past, soldiers said they had been forced to limit their use of 155 mm rounds against the enemy, compromising their ability to support infantry further forward.
"There was 'shell hunger'. Ammunition was rationed quite severely. It had an impact on infantry. They (the Russians) crept from all sides, it hurt the infantry men," said unit commander Vasyl, 46, declining to give his full name.
"Now, there is no more 'shell hunger' and we work well."
Demand for artillery rounds has soared since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, with Kyiv's Western allies running down their own stockpiles as they rushed shells to Ukraine where thousands of rounds are needed every day.
Now a fresh influx has begun arriving at units like Vasyl's after the U.S. Congress ended months of delays and approved a $61 billion aid package.
But for Oleh, 39, a gunner in the same unit, the problem is not only ammunition. Ukraine has just launched a major mobilisation drive that it hopes will replenish its exhausted and depleted forces in the coming months. Some say it has taken too long.
"There are very few of us. There aren't enough people," he said. "We do not even have half of the people we should have."
Vasyl is more sanguine as he prepares the howitzer for further action.
Convinced that Ukraine will prevail over the Russian invaders, he is dismissive of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin's recent diplomatic forays and pledges of cooperation with China and North Korea.
"All these talks with Korea and China, they will not help them. We will win, we shall overcome," he said. "It is our spirit, it is our Ukraine, we are defending it. We shall overcome, at any price but we will win."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Bracing for the Hardest Winter: Protecting Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure

Russia has steadily eroded what little advantages Ukraine has fought hard to create. It has done this by focusing on two key combat strategies. The first is frontline attrition and sustained pressure along the front, with limited actions to retake cities and towns that are considered important to Russia’s overall objectives. The second is attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which have been accompanied by a concerted effort to deplete Western and Ukrainian stocks of air defence missiles. Because of this, Russia’s strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have grown in efficacy, and are now in danger of achieving the Kremlin’s goal of a total blackout in Ukraine.

Ukrainian society will cease to function effectively without power; many services like public transport and hospitals will find it almost impossible to continue safely. As winter approaches and temperatures drop below freezing, the lack of power and heating will become life-threatening for the elderly and young, driving internal and external displacement. Russia’s goal is to destroy Ukraine’s will to fight, such that the irrational demands Putin frequently makes will begin to seem palatable compared with continued suffering. This is why the West must act now to defend and restore Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The alternative is a defeated Ukraine, and an emboldened Kremlin that feels as though it has won a great victory over the West.

The Russian concept for these strikes is known as a Strategic Operation for the Destruction of Critical Infrastructure (SODCIT). Russia has conducted this type of operation from day one of the invasion, but Ukraine was able to rebuild using aid from the West and the equipment it had available domestically. However, none of the previous attacks were as successful; the CEO of one energy company, DTEK, remarked that the accuracy of Russian missiles was impressive, and that where previous strikes had landed within 100–200 m of their target, they were now striking within one metre. Sadly, Ukraine’s air defence availability has declined as Russian efficacy has increased.

As a result, Russian strikes had cumulatively destroyed 9 gigawatts (GW) of Ukraine’s domestic power generation by mid-June 2024. Peak consumption during the winter of 2023 was 18 GW, which means that half of Ukraine’s production capacity has been destroyed. At least 80% of Ukraine’s thermal power and one third of its hydroelectric power generation has been destroyed. Most recently, Russia has continued targeting the remaining hydroelectric power stations, and has even targeted the substations linked to solar farms. The remaining facilities that can generate power include the hydroelectric power plants in Dniester, Kyiv and Kaniv. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remains functional, but it would be possible for Russia to target the substations that distribute its power. Ukraine can import around 1.7 mWh from Europe, but expanding this is challenging and would require significant investment in Ukraine’s power infrastructure.

It is important to understand what this means for the average Ukrainian. Most Ukrainians already experience daily blackouts, and backup power storage is common in many homes. This is manageable in the summer, but Ukraine relies on thermal power plants to generate heating for homes as well as power during its long winter months. Thermal plants are important because they can respond to surges in demand by increasing capacity; nuclear power plants cannot. There are already estimates that 20-hour blackouts will be imposed in winter. Temperatures regularly drop to –4 degrees, which will likely drive an influx of refugees including women, children and the elderly towards Europe’s borders if heating and power cannot be restored. This is one desired outcome of a SODCIT; it pressures the opponent’s population and is designed to encourage them to end the fight by making daily life unbearable.

Thread: https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1806030168533737863

Russia’s operation on the northern side of Kharkiv has lasted over six weeks. There have been serious difficulties at both operational and strategic level.

While the offensive is stuck, satellite images show the Russians have begun fortifying the newly occupied areas. 1/
The Kharkiv operation had three probable goals:

1. Create confusion and tie Ukrainian reserves to a secondary direction, so that progress could be made elsewhere

2. Form a “buffer zone” between Belgorod and Ukraine

3. Possibly get parts of Kharkiv within artillery range

2/

Russia was able to tie some Ukrainian forces to Kharkiv, but it wasn’t able to exploit the initial momentum elsewhere on the front. In this situation, Russia has to divide its forces and spend manpower on a less important area, while progress is slow everywhere. 3/
Ukraine stabilized the front relatively quickly and have began limited counterattacks.

Recently, Ukrainians have taken back areas in Vovchansk, Starytsia and Hlyboke, while Russians have made no additional gains. The city of Kharkiv is still far away from Russian artillery. 4/
The so-called buffer zone is small, and increasing it would require additional forces.

Russia has begun preparations to hold on to their gains. New satellite images reveal they’re constructing fortifications north of Vovchansk, near the border on the Ukrainian side. 5/
The new fortifications are 150-400 meters long trenches, built north and west of Vovchansk.

As the Sentinel images are very low-resolution, I double-checked some these from high-resolution imagery, which I unfortunately can’t publish here. 6/

The newly fortified zone is 2,5 km deep at most, and around 6 km wide - not very effective against Ukrainian operations towards Belgorod.

However, the work has started only recently, and it's very possible there will be more new fortifications in the coming weeks. 7/
The Russians clearly do not want to lose what little they have achieved, which isn't much to begin with. They have transferred a lot of excavators to this area, and Ukrainians have also damaged or destroyed over 15 of them. Rather heavy losses for engineering equipment. 8/

Russia is determined to fortify now, despite the losses. The project seems politically motivated, as there already is a proper defensive line on the Russian side of the border. It hasn’t even been tested yet, as usually border raids don’t go beyond the first villages. 9/
In the West, the Kharkiv situation caused a shift in the narrative. The urgency of supporting became a pressing issue, and was given the permission to strike with long-range western weaponry. One could ask, were the gains on the ground really worth it for Russia? 10/
The future for similar operations seems difficult. Russians might try to launch new attacks in other directions, but Ukrainians now have more opportunities to respond to such attempts. Achieving the same results in a possible next offensive is more challenging. 11/
There are some variables. Ukrainian losses are unknown, so we don’t know what is the price they’re paying for taking back these small border villages. Especially in the Vovchansk direction, throwing the Russians out of the villages doesn’t alter the general situation much. 12/
Our team at @Black_BirdGroup is looking for solutions so that we could continue publishing high-resolution satellite imagery instead of just using them internally, in order to provide more visual and fact-based analysis. 13/13

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Are Airbus Satellite Images Helping Russia Wage War?

That, at least, is a concern harbored by a service provider that analyzes satellite data on behalf of the Ukrainian military. The team leader, who has requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of his activities, sifted through archives of satellite photos and discovered a rather striking pattern. "There were an enormous number of photos along the war front, but also repeated images from the deep west of Ukraine, for example of important infrastructure,” he told DER SPIEGEL. A deeper analysis revealed frequent tasks right before military strikes – and in many cases also immediately afterward. "We see this pattern: photo, Russian attack, photo. I mean, who else could be behind it?”

Around two weeks: That time interval between photo and attack is one that jumps out in a closer analysis of the data. The satellite experts who cooperate with the Ukrainian military have localized thousands of Airbus photos and compared them with the targets of Russian airstrikes. They then looked at the time elapsed between when the photo was taken and the attack. The analysis shows that most of the photos from the Airbus satellites were taken in the weeks preceding an attack.
This pattern could be an indication that Russian actors are, in fact, behind the tasks. DER SPIEGEL has learned that in the U.S., the National Security Division of the Department of Justice in addition to the FBI, which is responsible for counterintelligence, have both taken an interest in whether Russia is taking advantage of the technology provided by Western satellite operators. When approached for comment, however, the U.S. authorities declined to discuss any possible investigations.

x.com

x.com

Ukrainian 153rd Brigade has been reorganized into a mechanized brigade just two months after being reformed as an infantry brigade.

x.com

x.com

1. Massive deployment of FPV #drones in #Ukraine has resulted in a rapid development of initiators that trigger the drone's munitions. Here, russians warn about initiators that have accelerometers & magnetometers: a trophy drone can explode when approached or moved.

x.com

x.com

Assistant Secretary Bush confirms that they are on target to reach production of 55,000 155mm shells per month by the end of the summer.

x.com

x.com

US-supplied M109A6 Paladin self propelled howitzer in Ukrainian service, seen here sending a 155mm shell towards a Russian position outside of Avdiivka.

"People's Satellite" Helped Ukraine Hit Over 1,000 Targets Spy Agency Says

A crowd-funded satellite has enabled Ukraine to have a much better independent view of the battlefield, as well as targets in Russia.

www.twz.com

More than 1,500 Russian targets worth billions of dollars have been destroyed over the past two years thanks to imagery from a crowd-funded satellite, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) said on Wednesday.

MiG-29 fighter pilot shares story about himself shooting down two Shahed drones in one combat mission

Shooting down small and low-speed Russian attack drones is not easy for combat aviation, but Ukrainian pilots are well trained and have been practising to effectively fight Shahed UAVs.

Source: press service of the Air Command Zakhid (West)

Details: In particular, the pilots shared the story of their comrade in arms from the 204th Sevastopol Tactical Aviation Brigade who shot down two Shahed drones in one combat mission.

"I had a feeling of confidence. I took off from one of the operational airfields. I said "hello" to the aircraft before the flight, as if telling it telepathically that we had to shoot down a Shahed," says pilot Pavlo.

After he had destroyed one attack drone, he received a task to destroy another target.

"I then turned to my plane in my thoughts again: 'We have to do this, you and me – shoot down the second one," Pavlo chuckles. "And we did it. The night was sleepless but productive for me, and it ended in a peaceful morning for the Ukrainians who were targeted by these two enemy drones."

Quote: "Shooting down small and low-speed attack drones is not as easy as it seems. You have to carefully calculate everything: the speed of the aircraft, your manoeuvres in the sky. But we are well prepared, we have practised a lot and are still practising to effectively fight Shahed attack drones. Of course, you feel happy about being able to destroy the target. But it only lasts for a few seconds, and then you focus on the next flight mission again."

Details: The pilot adds that combat crews of the radio engineering units help them detect their targets, and personnel of the aircraft guidance points help the pilots approach them. This is the coherent work of a large team.

 

[The Z Machine]

One has to think that shooting down drones with human piloted fighter planes (maybe using air to air missiles?) isn't a very good use of resources. I'm sure they are working on FPVs to take down slow Shaheds as well as full AI loitering drones to provide air to air defense.

 

[Chadstroma]

One has to think that shooting down drones with human piloted fighter planes (maybe using air to air missiles?) isn't a very good use of resources. I'm sure they are working on FPVs to take down slow Shaheds as well as full AI loitering drones to provide air to air defense.

Mig29's have a 30mm cannon on them. Judging from the information provided, the difficulty in shooting them down is to line up your guns on them when you are flying fast and they fly slow. The other difficulty is that they are very limited in how much ammunition they carry so the pilots only can do short bursts on these.

An air to air missile engagement would be a lot easier as they could lock on from distance where the variance in speeds are not as much of a factor. But as you pointed out, not a good use or resources. Plus, I remember seeing something about the Soviet airframes that the Ukrainians fly are basically out of Soviet weapons and they have to duck tape and hot wire western armaments on them now.

 

[The Z Machine]

I guess an F-35 would be better as they could match the speed of the Shahed and just drop a grenade on it, lol.

 

[Chadstroma]

I guess an F-35 would be better as they could match the speed of the Shahed and just drop a grenade on it, lol.

If F-35's were involved the Russians wouldn't have bases to launch that crap from.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

U.S., Israel Near Agreement to Send Patriot Systems to Ukraine

The U.S. and Israeli governments are in talks to send as many as eight Patriot batteries to Ukraine, people familiar with the discussions said Thursday, a decision that could dramatically increase Kyiv’s air-defense capabilities.
The U.S.-provided Patriot batteries have been on loan to Israel for years, and were recently retired.
“It’s been discussed between the U.S. and Israeli governments but nothing has been determined,” one of the people familiar with the discussions said.
Ukraine is in desperate need of more air-defense systems, and the U.S. has been on the hunt to provide more of its own Patriot systems to help shore up Ukrainian defenses in its conflict with Russia.
Sending eight Patriot systems from Israel to Ukraine would essentially triple Kyiv’s arsenal. Ukraine is believed to have four patriots, including two from European donors.
Israel said in April that it planned to mothball the Patriots, because they were being replaced with newer systems. The retirement of those systems opened the way for talks to redeploy them to Ukraine, U.S. officials and others familiar with the talks said.
While initially open to the idea, Israel now has expressed concerns to the U.S. about the plan, Israeli officials say, because of concerns it might need the Patriots if a conflict opens in the north with Hezbollah, one of the individuals familiar with the talks said.
Israel’s relationship with Moscow might be the key issue, however. The Israeli government has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but has declined to send weapons to Ukraine for fear of upsetting its relationship with Moscow.
Israeli officials have said privately that providing military assistance to Ukraine would upset an arrangement with Russia that allows the Israeli air force to conduct operations over Syria.
“Before the war in Ukraine, there had been a fairly extensive set of understandings between Russia and Israel. They involved the war in Syria, Russians in Israel, and Iran’s regional activities,” said Jon Alterman, a senior vice president at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“But the war in Ukraine turned the Israeli calculus on its head because it pushed Russia to align more closely with its principal regional adversary, Iran,” he added.

Why arrival of F-16s won't rapidly change Ukraine's fortunes in war with Russia

Some analysts say the F-16s will not alone prove a turning point in the war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
"You'd have to separate symbolism from the actual impact on the battlefield - which will be useful but modest, particularly in the beginning," said Mark Cancian, senior adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, a non-governmental research group, said at least 60 planes would be needed for significant operations as Ukraine attempts to push Russian aviation back from its borders.
Lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova, who leads Kyiv's parliamentary commission on arms and munitions, said that Ukraine would need nearer to 120 F-16s to boost its air capability significantly.
While the pilots gain experience in Ukrainian skies and the military builds out its air infrastructure, the initial deliveries could at least help Ukraine strengthen its air shield, experts say.
"It will provide some air defence and depth capacity, potentially also help intercepting Shaheds [Iranian-built drones] and cruise missiles. Although it is a very expensive way of doing that, munitions-wise," said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Ukraine's military has worked hard to reduce the threat to the arriving F-16s in recent months by attacking Russian air defences, according to Kuzan.
"The formation of the battlefield, especially in the south, is already taking place," he said. "Ukraine has the capabilities to systematically strike Russia's foremost air defence complexes."
But Cancian of CSIS said he expected Ukraine to try to open gaps in Russia's defences in the immediate run-up to planned F-16 attacks rather than a long time in advance.

Training will be crucial.
"You can have lots of fast jets but if they don't have effective weapons, and air crew able to employ them with effective tactics, then they will just be shot down in large numbers," said Bronk.
The timeline for the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s has dominated discussions about deliveries and pledges of more than 70 jets.
By the end of 2024, Ukraine expects to have at least 20 pilots ready to fly F-16s, Ustinova said.
"It is difficult to solicit more planes when you don't have people to pilot them," she said, adding that, at first, Ukraine will have more F-16s than qualified pilots.
"Waiting in line for 10 years before our pilots are trained is not OK."
The Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson declined to comment.
U.S. officials have directed questions on training to Ukraine and noted that pilots can also be trained in Europe. However, Bronk said NATO's capacity was already stretched.
He added that aircraft maintenance was an even more pressing challenge than pilot training.
He said most repairs and maintenance would need to happen inside Ukraine, and it would probably have to rely on foreign contractors who know the aircraft.
Russia has already intensified its attacks on infrastructure that could be used for the maintenance and deployment of F-16s, some experts said.
"Russia is striking all airfields, potential F-16 bases, every day, including attempts to damage airstrips and infrastructure. These strikes have not paused for the last two months, at least," Kuzan said.
The targets will become all the more valuable when the aircraft, pilots and maintenance teams arrive. This is likely to force Ukraine to install missile defences to protect them, even though it is short of both air defence systems and ammunition.
"We have to accept the fact that the airfields will be well-protected when civilian objects could be under attack," Kuzan said, adding that each base would need at least two Patriot and two NASAMS batteries to secure it.
"As soon as we (build up our flight capabilities), we will push their planes back and the terror will stop. But these couple of months will be truly difficult," Kuzan added.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Just sounds miserable over there

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Man arrested with explosives near Paris airport was part of vast Russian sabotage campaign

The building targeted by the Russian-Ukrainian man, who was wounded on June 3 while making an explosive device in his hotel room, located near the Paris region's Charles de Gaulle international airport, was not a strategic one. Le Monde has learned the initial results of the investigation into the man indicate that he was preparing to attack an outlet of the home improvement store chain Bricorama, located in a commercial zone north of the French capital. His planned act was, however, part of a vast sabotage campaign orchestrated in Moscow, which targeted several European countries.

Russia Sends Waves of Troops to the Front in a Brutal Style of Fighting

May was a particularly deadly month for the Russian army in Ukraine, with an average of more than 1,000 of its soldiers injured or killed each day, according to U.S., British and other Western intelligence agencies.
But despite its losses, Russia is recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers a month — roughly as many as are exiting the battlefield, U.S. officials said. That has allowed its army to keep sending wave after wave of troops at Ukrainian defenses, hoping to overwhelm them and break through the trench lines.
It is a style of warfare that Russian soldiers have likened to being put into a meat grinder, with commanding officers seemingly oblivious to the fact that they are sending infantry soldiers to die.
At times, this approach has proved effective, bringing the Russian army victories in Avdiivka and Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. But Ukrainian and Western officials say the tactics were less successful this spring, as Russia tried to take land near the city of Kharkiv.
American officials said that Russia achieved a critical objective of President Vladimir V. Putin, creating a buffer zone along the border to make it more difficult for the Ukrainians to strike into the country.
But the drive did not threaten Kharkiv and was ultimately stopped by Ukrainian defenses, according to Western officials.

Russian soldiers have said on Telegram, the social media and messaging platform, that their units are suffering high casualties. Some say their ranks are being cut down by drones, machine gun fire and artillery barrages.
Russia’s use of infantry in wave attacks reflects one of its advantages in the war: Its population is much larger than Ukraine’s, giving it a bigger pool of potential recruits.
But the casualties have forced Russia to ship new recruits to Ukraine relatively quickly, meaning that the soldiers sent to the front are poorly trained.
The lack of structured training, and the need to commit new recruits to combat operations, has limited Russia’s ability to generate more capable units. It also increases casualties.
But it is more complicated than that. The changing nature of modern warfare has also increased the body count in recent months.
Ubiquitous drones have made it easy for both sides to spot, and target, enemy forces. And mines and cluster munitions make movement across open ground a nearly suicidal endeavor.

But for all of Ukraine’s success around Kharkiv, there are more challenges ahead. In the weeks to come, U.S. and Western officials expect the fighting to shift back to the east and the south, as Russia continues to appear willing to expend forces to make incremental gains.

x.com

x.com

Denmark has successfully completed training 50 Ukrainian Air Force ground crew on the F-16, and will begin training the next batch of 50 after the summer break.

The first batch of Ukrainian pilots will be ready for combat this summer as well, per head of the RDAF, Gen. Jan Dam

x.com

x.com

Extremely consequential if they can close this deal. Half of Israel's PATRIOTS are ex-US Army and the other half are ex-Bundeswehr. All are in the PAC-2 configuration.

x.com

x.com

According to the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic @P_Fiala, the first artillery shells delivered to Ukraine via the Czech Ammunition Initiative were paid for in full by Germany. In total, Germany is contributing €576 million to the Czech initiative.
I have just updated the article. The Czech Minister of Defence told the Czech news agency that a total of 50,000 shells were delivered to Ukraine — financed by Germany. I have therefore adjusted the paragraphs that referred to the previously unclear delivered number of shells.

x.com

x.com

Czech PM says the Czech-led initiative to secure artillery shells for Ukraine from outside the EU “can regularly supply Ukraine with tens of thousands of heavy artillery shells per month.”

x.com

x.com

Debris of an unknown Ukrainian jet drone found somewhere by Russians. As said the warhead is 20kg.

x.com

x.com

Lancet loitering munition strike targeting a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer, reportedly conducted by a crew from Russia's 83rd Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade in northern Kharkiv Oblast, presumably the Vovchansk area.

x.com

x.com

NEW: Fact check: North Korea has not announced plans to send troops to Ukraine — yet

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Zelensky: 'Ukraine doesn't want war to last for years,' looking ahead to 2nd peace summit

"We don't have much time. We have a lot of injured, killed, both military and civilians. So we do not want this war to last for years. Therefore, we have to prepare this plan and put it on the table at the second peace summit," President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists in Brussels on June 27.

kyivindependent.com

A detailed action plan should be prepared to consider at Ukraine's second peace summit over the next few months, President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists in Brussels on June 27, Ukrinform reported.

Such a plan should include steps related to "all the crises" caused by Russia's full-scale invasion, according to Zelensky.

"We don't have much time. We have a lot of injured, killed, both military and civilians. So we do not want this war to last for years. Therefore, we have to prepare this plan and put it on the table at the second peace summit," Zelensky said.

Ukraine wants the talks to be open, the president added.

Source: Military intelligence stops traffic on Kerch bridge, collapses accounting systems in Crimea

The attacks targeted the servers of propaganda media, telecom operators, and the system for registering and controlling traffic on the Kerch Bridge, according to the source.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) has carried out a cyberattack on several facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea on June 27, a source in the agency confirmed to the Kyiv Independent.

HUR has reportedly carried out several cyberattacks in recent months.

The agency attacked Russia's largest Internet providers operating in the peninsula a day earlier.

The attacks targeted the servers of propaganda media, telecom operators, and the system for registering and controlling traffic on the illegally-built Kerch (Crimean) Bridge, according to the source.

Germany may hold more basic training for Ukrainian army recruits, says commander

More Ukrainian army recruits could receive basic training in Germany from next year if Kyiv moves some further military education back to Ukraine, an EU commander told Reuters, as the requirement for troops grows amid the ongoing war with Russia.
"We have received more training requests as Ukraine continues to mobilise, in particular for basic training which is mainly being done by Britain," Lieutenant-General Andreas Marlow, head of the EU's special training command near Berlin, said in an interview on Thursday.
This would likely affect collective training - involving entire companies or battalions - so far carried out in Germany and which follows basic training, he said.

 

[FBG Moderator]

Since this is the proxy PSF forum these days....

We don't have anything that's PSF these days. Please do not post stuff like that and get this thread shut down.

 

[Chadstroma]

U.S., Israel Near Agreement to Send Patriot Systems to Ukraine

The U.S. and Israeli governments are in talks to send as many as eight Patriot batteries to Ukraine, people familiar with the discussions said Thursday, a decision that could dramatically increase Kyiv’s air-defense capabilities.
The U.S.-provided Patriot batteries have been on loan to Israel for years, and were recently retired.
“It’s been discussed between the U.S. and Israeli governments but nothing has been determined,” one of the people familiar with the discussions said.
Ukraine is in desperate need of more air-defense systems, and the U.S. has been on the hunt to provide more of its own Patriot systems to help shore up Ukrainian defenses in its conflict with Russia.
Sending eight Patriot systems from Israel to Ukraine would essentially triple Kyiv’s arsenal. Ukraine is believed to have four patriots, including two from European donors.
Israel said in April that it planned to mothball the Patriots, because they were being replaced with newer systems. The retirement of those systems opened the way for talks to redeploy them to Ukraine, U.S. officials and others familiar with the talks said.
While initially open to the idea, Israel now has expressed concerns to the U.S. about the plan, Israeli officials say, because of concerns it might need the Patriots if a conflict opens in the north with Hezbollah, one of the individuals familiar with the talks said.
Israel’s relationship with Moscow might be the key issue, however. The Israeli government has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but has declined to send weapons to Ukraine for fear of upsetting its relationship with Moscow.
Israeli officials have said privately that providing military assistance to Ukraine would upset an arrangement with Russia that allows the Israeli air force to conduct operations over Syria.
“Before the war in Ukraine, there had been a fairly extensive set of understandings between Russia and Israel. They involved the war in Syria, Russians in Israel, and Iran’s regional activities,” said Jon Alterman, a senior vice president at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“But the war in Ukraine turned the Israeli calculus on its head because it pushed Russia to align more closely with its principal regional adversary, Iran,” he added.

Why arrival of F-16s won't rapidly change Ukraine's fortunes in war with Russia

Some analysts say the F-16s will not alone prove a turning point in the war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
"You'd have to separate symbolism from the actual impact on the battlefield - which will be useful but modest, particularly in the beginning," said Mark Cancian, senior adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, a non-governmental research group, said at least 60 planes would be needed for significant operations as Ukraine attempts to push Russian aviation back from its borders.
Lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova, who leads Kyiv's parliamentary commission on arms and munitions, said that Ukraine would need nearer to 120 F-16s to boost its air capability significantly.
While the pilots gain experience in Ukrainian skies and the military builds out its air infrastructure, the initial deliveries could at least help Ukraine strengthen its air shield, experts say.
"It will provide some air defence and depth capacity, potentially also help intercepting Shaheds [Iranian-built drones] and cruise missiles. Although it is a very expensive way of doing that, munitions-wise," said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Ukraine's military has worked hard to reduce the threat to the arriving F-16s in recent months by attacking Russian air defences, according to Kuzan.
"The formation of the battlefield, especially in the south, is already taking place," he said. "Ukraine has the capabilities to systematically strike Russia's foremost air defence complexes."
But Cancian of CSIS said he expected Ukraine to try to open gaps in Russia's defences in the immediate run-up to planned F-16 attacks rather than a long time in advance.

Training will be crucial.
"You can have lots of fast jets but if they don't have effective weapons, and air crew able to employ them with effective tactics, then they will just be shot down in large numbers," said Bronk.
The timeline for the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s has dominated discussions about deliveries and pledges of more than 70 jets.
By the end of 2024, Ukraine expects to have at least 20 pilots ready to fly F-16s, Ustinova said.
"It is difficult to solicit more planes when you don't have people to pilot them," she said, adding that, at first, Ukraine will have more F-16s than qualified pilots.
"Waiting in line for 10 years before our pilots are trained is not OK."
The Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson declined to comment.
U.S. officials have directed questions on training to Ukraine and noted that pilots can also be trained in Europe. However, Bronk said NATO's capacity was already stretched.
He added that aircraft maintenance was an even more pressing challenge than pilot training.
He said most repairs and maintenance would need to happen inside Ukraine, and it would probably have to rely on foreign contractors who know the aircraft.
Russia has already intensified its attacks on infrastructure that could be used for the maintenance and deployment of F-16s, some experts said.
"Russia is striking all airfields, potential F-16 bases, every day, including attempts to damage airstrips and infrastructure. These strikes have not paused for the last two months, at least," Kuzan said.
The targets will become all the more valuable when the aircraft, pilots and maintenance teams arrive. This is likely to force Ukraine to install missile defences to protect them, even though it is short of both air defence systems and ammunition.
"We have to accept the fact that the airfields will be well-protected when civilian objects could be under attack," Kuzan said, adding that each base would need at least two Patriot and two NASAMS batteries to secure it.
"As soon as we (build up our flight capabilities), we will push their planes back and the terror will stop. But these couple of months will be truly difficult," Kuzan added.

Expected the Patriot Batteries from the Israeli's to be pushed to Ukraine and if done would be a big win for the Ukrainians. I don't think it is really about the potential northern war with Hezbollah but more about the skies of Syria. We need to leverage our relationship and supplies to get that done.

For the F-16s, I am not a professional analyst by any means and I am sure they have more information that I do as well, that being said, I am not sure that the arrival of the F-16s is not a factor. I also don't think you need 60 in order to push the needle. Just as the Russians have been targeting potential F-16 bases, the Ukrainians have been targeting- with success, the air defenses of Russia like the S400s and Pantir's. These are weapon systems that Russia can't replace with obsolete long stored weapons that they hurriedly 'fix' and send off to the front like they have done with tanks and APCs. The way that I can see the F-16s being very effective is part of a whole air assault using drones, missiles and other aircraft to overwhelm what is left of the Russian air defenses.... going after key targets or the air defense themselves, the Russians would be forced to send their fighters to intercept and I have a lot of confidence that NATO trained Ukrainian pilots in F-16s are a match for most everything the Russians have, maybe up to the Su-57 (but those are in very few numbers and as best as I know, have not been deployed to the combat zone).

 

[Chadstroma]

Just sounds miserable over there

Yea... I wouldn't book your Ukrainian vacation just yet.

 

[The Z Machine]

U.S., Israel Near Agreement to Send Patriot Systems to Ukraine

The U.S. and Israeli governments are in talks to send as many as eight Patriot batteries to Ukraine, people familiar with the discussions said Thursday, a decision that could dramatically increase Kyiv’s air-defense capabilities.
The U.S.-provided Patriot batteries have been on loan to Israel for years, and were recently retired.
“It’s been discussed between the U.S. and Israeli governments but nothing has been determined,” one of the people familiar with the discussions said.
Ukraine is in desperate need of more air-defense systems, and the U.S. has been on the hunt to provide more of its own Patriot systems to help shore up Ukrainian defenses in its conflict with Russia.
Sending eight Patriot systems from Israel to Ukraine would essentially triple Kyiv’s arsenal. Ukraine is believed to have four patriots, including two from European donors.
Israel said in April that it planned to mothball the Patriots, because they were being replaced with newer systems. The retirement of those systems opened the way for talks to redeploy them to Ukraine, U.S. officials and others familiar with the talks said.
While initially open to the idea, Israel now has expressed concerns to the U.S. about the plan, Israeli officials say, because of concerns it might need the Patriots if a conflict opens in the north with Hezbollah, one of the individuals familiar with the talks said.
Israel’s relationship with Moscow might be the key issue, however. The Israeli government has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but has declined to send weapons to Ukraine for fear of upsetting its relationship with Moscow.
Israeli officials have said privately that providing military assistance to Ukraine would upset an arrangement with Russia that allows the Israeli air force to conduct operations over Syria.
“Before the war in Ukraine, there had been a fairly extensive set of understandings between Russia and Israel. They involved the war in Syria, Russians in Israel, and Iran’s regional activities,” said Jon Alterman, a senior vice president at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“But the war in Ukraine turned the Israeli calculus on its head because it pushed Russia to align more closely with its principal regional adversary, Iran,” he added.

Why arrival of F-16s won't rapidly change Ukraine's fortunes in war with Russia

Some analysts say the F-16s will not alone prove a turning point in the war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
"You'd have to separate symbolism from the actual impact on the battlefield - which will be useful but modest, particularly in the beginning," said Mark Cancian, senior adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, a non-governmental research group, said at least 60 planes would be needed for significant operations as Ukraine attempts to push Russian aviation back from its borders.
Lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova, who leads Kyiv's parliamentary commission on arms and munitions, said that Ukraine would need nearer to 120 F-16s to boost its air capability significantly.
While the pilots gain experience in Ukrainian skies and the military builds out its air infrastructure, the initial deliveries could at least help Ukraine strengthen its air shield, experts say.
"It will provide some air defence and depth capacity, potentially also help intercepting Shaheds [Iranian-built drones] and cruise missiles. Although it is a very expensive way of doing that, munitions-wise," said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Ukraine's military has worked hard to reduce the threat to the arriving F-16s in recent months by attacking Russian air defences, according to Kuzan.
"The formation of the battlefield, especially in the south, is already taking place," he said. "Ukraine has the capabilities to systematically strike Russia's foremost air defence complexes."
But Cancian of CSIS said he expected Ukraine to try to open gaps in Russia's defences in the immediate run-up to planned F-16 attacks rather than a long time in advance.

Training will be crucial.
"You can have lots of fast jets but if they don't have effective weapons, and air crew able to employ them with effective tactics, then they will just be shot down in large numbers," said Bronk.
The timeline for the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s has dominated discussions about deliveries and pledges of more than 70 jets.
By the end of 2024, Ukraine expects to have at least 20 pilots ready to fly F-16s, Ustinova said.
"It is difficult to solicit more planes when you don't have people to pilot them," she said, adding that, at first, Ukraine will have more F-16s than qualified pilots.
"Waiting in line for 10 years before our pilots are trained is not OK."
The Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson declined to comment.
U.S. officials have directed questions on training to Ukraine and noted that pilots can also be trained in Europe. However, Bronk said NATO's capacity was already stretched.
He added that aircraft maintenance was an even more pressing challenge than pilot training.
He said most repairs and maintenance would need to happen inside Ukraine, and it would probably have to rely on foreign contractors who know the aircraft.
Russia has already intensified its attacks on infrastructure that could be used for the maintenance and deployment of F-16s, some experts said.
"Russia is striking all airfields, potential F-16 bases, every day, including attempts to damage airstrips and infrastructure. These strikes have not paused for the last two months, at least," Kuzan said.
The targets will become all the more valuable when the aircraft, pilots and maintenance teams arrive. This is likely to force Ukraine to install missile defences to protect them, even though it is short of both air defence systems and ammunition.
"We have to accept the fact that the airfields will be well-protected when civilian objects could be under attack," Kuzan said, adding that each base would need at least two Patriot and two NASAMS batteries to secure it.
"As soon as we (build up our flight capabilities), we will push their planes back and the terror will stop. But these couple of months will be truly difficult," Kuzan added.

Expected the Patriot Batteries from the Israeli's to be pushed to Ukraine and if done would be a big win for the Ukrainians. I don't think it is really about the potential northern war with Hezbollah but more about the skies of Syria. We need to leverage our relationship and supplies to get that done.

For the F-16s, I am not a professional analyst by any means and I am sure they have more information that I do as well, that being said, I am not sure that the arrival of the F-16s is not a factor. I also don't think you need 60 in order to push the needle. Just as the Russians have been targeting potential F-16 bases, the Ukrainians have been targeting- with success, the air defenses of Russia like the S400s and Pantir's. These are weapon systems that Russia can't replace with obsolete long stored weapons that they hurriedly 'fix' and send off to the front like they have done with tanks and APCs. The way that I can see the F-16s being very effective is part of a whole air assault using drones, missiles and other aircraft to overwhelm what is left of the Russian air defenses.... going after key targets or the air defense themselves, the Russians would be forced to send their fighters to intercept and I have a lot of confidence that NATO trained Ukrainian pilots in F-16s are a match for most everything the Russians have, maybe up to the Su-57 (but those are in very few numbers and as best as I know, have not been deployed to the combat zone).

I think they'll hold back the F-16s from attack and use them to patrol the skies and keep the bombers further away from the front line, decreasing the glide bomb intensity. I doubt that either side will want to lose any of their fighter aircraft.

 

[beer 30]

Just sounds miserable over there

Endless war in mud and trenches usually is.

 

[Chadstroma]

Expected the Patriot Batteries from the Israeli's to be pushed to Ukraine and if done would be a big win for the Ukrainians. I don't think it is really about the potential northern war with Hezbollah but more about the skies of Syria. We need to leverage our relationship and supplies to get that done.

For the F-16s, I am not a professional analyst by any means and I am sure they have more information that I do as well, that being said, I am not sure that the arrival of the F-16s is not a factor. I also don't think you need 60 in order to push the needle. Just as the Russians have been targeting potential F-16 bases, the Ukrainians have been targeting- with success, the air defenses of Russia like the S400s and Pantir's. These are weapon systems that Russia can't replace with obsolete long stored weapons that they hurriedly 'fix' and send off to the front like they have done with tanks and APCs. The way that I can see the F-16s being very effective is part of a whole air assault using drones, missiles and other aircraft to overwhelm what is left of the Russian air defenses.... going after key targets or the air defense themselves, the Russians would be forced to send their fighters to intercept and I have a lot of confidence that NATO trained Ukrainian pilots in F-16s are a match for most everything the Russians have, maybe up to the Su-57 (but those are in very few numbers and as best as I know, have not been deployed to the combat zone).

I think they'll hold back the F-16s from attack and use them to patrol the skies and keep the bombers further away from the front line, decreasing the glide bomb intensity. I doubt that either side will want to lose any of their fighter aircraft.

Ukraine is going to have to get aggressive. If the war comes down to who can outlast the other side with casualties and equipment, Ukraine loses. Even if Russia's production is limited (which it is well above what the sanctions hoped to achieve) they have nearly an inexhaustible resource that the Ukrainians can not come close to matching.... people. And we have already seen support for Ukraine wane in some countries and some internal politics of NATO countries causing disruption or ceasing of supplying them. China will supply Russia with everything it can to continue to make Russia it's B-word while not crossing the line that it ends up causing sanctions against them or their companies. Time is not on the side of the Ukrainians. They know that and that is why they launched that earlier failed counter offensive.

 

[The Z Machine]

Expected the Patriot Batteries from the Israeli's to be pushed to Ukraine and if done would be a big win for the Ukrainians. I don't think it is really about the potential northern war with Hezbollah but more about the skies of Syria. We need to leverage our relationship and supplies to get that done.

For the F-16s, I am not a professional analyst by any means and I am sure they have more information that I do as well, that being said, I am not sure that the arrival of the F-16s is not a factor. I also don't think you need 60 in order to push the needle. Just as the Russians have been targeting potential F-16 bases, the Ukrainians have been targeting- with success, the air defenses of Russia like the S400s and Pantir's. These are weapon systems that Russia can't replace with obsolete long stored weapons that they hurriedly 'fix' and send off to the front like they have done with tanks and APCs. The way that I can see the F-16s being very effective is part of a whole air assault using drones, missiles and other aircraft to overwhelm what is left of the Russian air defenses.... going after key targets or the air defense themselves, the Russians would be forced to send their fighters to intercept and I have a lot of confidence that NATO trained Ukrainian pilots in F-16s are a match for most everything the Russians have, maybe up to the Su-57 (but those are in very few numbers and as best as I know, have not been deployed to the combat zone).

I think they'll hold back the F-16s from attack and use them to patrol the skies and keep the bombers further away from the front line, decreasing the glide bomb intensity. I doubt that either side will want to lose any of their fighter aircraft.

Ukraine is going to have to get aggressive. If the war comes down to who can outlast the other side with casualties and equipment, Ukraine loses. Even if Russia's production is limited (which it is well above what the sanctions hoped to achieve) they have nearly an inexhaustible resource that the Ukrainians can not come close to matching.... people. And we have already seen support for Ukraine wane in some countries and some internal politics of NATO countries causing disruption or ceasing of supplying them. China will supply Russia with everything it can to continue to make Russia it's B-word while not crossing the line that it ends up causing sanctions against them or their companies. Time is not on the side of the Ukrainians. They know that and that is why they launched that earlier failed counter offensive.

Defending seems to be 10x more effective than attacking though (other than hitting soft targets like energy infrastructure). I don't see any way Russia can take the entirety of Ukraine without a collapse of western support or will to fight of the Ukrainian people. The will to fight is very much not on the side of the Russian soldiers.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine is going to have to get aggressive. If the war comes down to who can outlast the other side with casualties and equipment, Ukraine loses. Even if Russia's production is limited (which it is well above what the sanctions hoped to achieve) they have nearly an inexhaustible resource that the Ukrainians can not come close to matching.... people. And we have already seen support for Ukraine wane in some countries and some internal politics of NATO countries causing disruption or ceasing of supplying them. China will supply Russia with everything it can to continue to make Russia it's B-word while not crossing the line that it ends up causing sanctions against them or their companies. Time is not on the side of the Ukrainians. They know that and that is why they launched that earlier failed counter offensive.

Defending seems to be 10x more effective than attacking though (other than hitting soft targets like energy infrastructure). I don't see any way Russia can take the entirety of Ukraine without a collapse of western support or will to fight of the Ukrainian people. The will to fight is very much not on the side of the Russian soldiers.

All true and good points, however, Western support is somewhat fragile for a number or reasons which we can't really dive into here. The will to fight is already showing signs of slipping a bit as the percentage of Ukrainians who believe they should negotiate a peace even if it means losing Ukrainian territory is up significantly.

For Russians, it isn't the will to fight but the will to make a living. Right now, the Russians are able to recruit new meat for the grinder with the pay being much more than the typical man living pretty much anywhere outside of Moscow or St. Petersburg get. Russian media doesn't show flag draped coffins coming home like we did in Iraq/Afghanistan (I doubt many bodies are even returned at this point). Russia has well over a 100 million more people in the country than Ukraine and in Ukraine, a lot of the fighting men are the old guys like us as the younger generation seems very reluctant to put their lives on the line for their country.

Defending bleeds the attacker but you can not win a war on the defensive. At some point, you must attack. The Ukrainians have to find a way to do that effectively against the Russians.

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin's War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/06/28/putins-war-week-122-n2175807

 

[FBG Moderator]

Bunch of political posts deleted. Please do not go there and get this thread shut down.

 

[higgins]

Bunch of political posts deleted. Please do not go there and get this thread shut down.

Thanks for helping -- we do indeed want to keep this thread!

 

[Don't Toews Me]

For Ukraine and Russia, a Deadly Summer Lies Ahead With Little Hope of Big Gains

The war here is settling in for a brutal season during which thousands will likely die on both sides but neither appears poised to muster a decisive breakthrough.

Russia appears likely to continue its grinding approach, sacrificing large numbers of troops for small gains, said a senior Ukrainian security official.
“They don’t have enough troops” for a major advance in Kharkiv, the official said. “Moving troops there would make other parts of the front weaker.”

With the front line largely static, both sides are trying to use deep strikes to gain an advantage ahead of winter. Russia has targeted power stations and other infrastructure using missiles and explosive drones, knocking out half of Ukraine’s power-generation capacity and causing rolling blackouts in many cities. Russia has pummeled Ukrainian defensive positions with glide bombs launched from warplanes, and in June dropped a 3-ton version for the first time.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is using long-range missiles provided by the U.S. and its allies in an effort to cut off Crimea, the southern peninsula that Russia seized in 2014 and remains a weak spot given its geographical isolation from the Russian mainland.
“While Russia still makes some incremental battlefield gains, the sense is that the Ukrainians have been pretty strategic in some of their strikes and movements, and are holding their own,” said a senior U.S. Defense Department official.

A Ukrainian reconnaissance drone streamed footage of a Russian dugout on the edge of the village of Starytsya to the northeast of Kharkiv one recent morning. At a house in a nearby village, a dispatcher concluded after three visits that the Russians had abandoned the position. Ukrainian units in the area are seeking to clear the Russians out, while the invaders are seeking to dig in using excavators.
Drone teams here like one dubbed “Yasni Ochi,” or Clear Eyes, have employed drones—from small explosive craft the size of a dinner plate to larger vehicles that can carry bombs weighing several pounds—to hit Russian positions with precision.
Yasni Ochi had been in the east, but was sent northward to the Kharkiv region recently to reinforce defenses. The team has quickly set up a system to observe and strike Russian infantry and vehicles.
In a typical strike in June, a drone team dropped a bomb on a house with a half-dozen Russians inside, causing the ammunition stored there to explode and killing the troops.
“We are holding well,” said Heorhiy Volkov, the unit’s commander. “Our system holds it.”
Some Ukrainian soldiers and opposition politicians had complained that defensive lines in the area were poorly constructed or nonexistent before Russia’s incursion, but the attack appears to have sped up preparations.
Northeast of Kharkiv, close to Russia, a Wall Street Journal team saw soldiers placing antitank mines into shallow holes in fields, part of at least two lines of trenches, dugouts and antitank traps apparently nearing completion.
Reinforced Ukrainian defenses with infantry trenches protected by explosive drone teams, and artillery guns soon to be boosted by additional ammunition approved by the U.S., are sapping Russian strength.

“Russia’s gains have come at a pretty grisly cost,” said the Western intelligence official.
Whether Russia will attempt a large-scale assault during the summer remains a vexing question for Ukrainian strategists and their Western advisers. Kyiv has quite good intelligence about the battlefield situation and can spot Russian forces massing for a potential attack, said the intelligence official.
“Taking strategic intent from that can be quite difficult,” the official said, noting that Russia has launched attacks throughout the war that standard military doctrine wouldn’t foresee.
Ukraine has been able to generate enough forces to replace losses and some reserves, the security official said, but would need several times more to launch any kind of major offensive.

x.com

x.com

Compilation of previously unpublished SBU strikes on Russian air defence systems. 4xTOR, 3xPantsir-S1 and 1xBUK air defence system equipment were targeted.

For the majority of the shown strikes loitering munitions were used.

x.com

x.com

#Ukraine, Donetsk front, Vuhledar sector. 01/07/2024.

The Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade shows footage of strikes with FPV drones targeting Russian armored vehicles while they attempted to advance in the area of Vuhledar, southwest of Donetsk.

Notice the amount of motorbikes used in one of apparently failed attacks.

Ukraine now mass-producing strike drones with range of over 1,000 kilometers

Ukraine employs long-range drones to strike deep into Russian territory, targeting military infrastructure such as airfields and logistics, as well as oil refineries and depots.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine has launched serial production of strike drones with a range of over 1,000 kilometers, the head of state-owned company Ukrainian Defense Industry, also known as Ukroboronprom, said on June 29.

In an interview with ArmyInform, Herman Smetanin said Russia's "huge resources and super-powerful industry" meant Kyiv had to take a more "flexible and inventive" approach to manufacturing weapons.

Ukraine employs long-range drones to strike deep into Russian territory, targeting military infrastructure such as airfields and logistics, as well as oil refineries and depots. The strikes against oil infrastructure are intended to disrupt fuel supplies to the Russian military and diminish Moscow's export revenues, crucial for funding the war.

Experimental Ukrainian drones have struck targets in Russia as far as the Tatarstan Republic, some 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) away from the Russia-Ukraine border.

Russia’s devastating glide bombs keep falling on its own territory

The powerful glide-bombs that Russia has used to such great effect to pound Ukrainian cities into rubble have also been falling on its own territory, an internal Russian document has revealed.
At least 38 of the bombs, which have been credited with helping drive Russia’s recent territorial advances, crashed into the Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine between April 2023 and April 2024, according to the document obtained by The Washington Post, though most did not detonate.
Roughly comparable to the more advanced American JDAM guided bombs, these glide bombs are large Soviet-era munitions retrofitted with guidance systems that experts say often fail — resulting in impacts on Russian territory.

The document, originally intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence and passed on to The Post, includes a spreadsheet of incidents citing emergency decrees on bomb cleanup and evacuation and appears to be a product of the Belgorod city emergency department.

The glide bombs are a Soviet relic hailing from the Cold War, designed as “dumb bombs” to be dropped on a target. Russia adapted this large inventory of unguided bombs to modern warfare by retrofitting them with guidance systems known as UMPK kits — cheap pop-out wings and navigation systems.
This allows Russian Su-34 and Su-35 jets to launch them from a distance of about 40 miles, which is out of reach for most Ukrainian air defense systems.
“A certain percentage of Russian bombs is defective. This problem has existed since they started using these UMPK kits and it’s not being fundamentally solved. We think these accidental releases are caused by the unreliability of these kits, something that does not seem to bother the Air Force,” Ruslan Leviev, a military expert with the Conflict Intelligence Group that has been tracking Russian military activities in Ukraine since 2014, said in a recent front line update.
“According to our estimates, only a fraction of these bombs fail, so it doesn’t affect the practical effectiveness of this weapon, no matter how cynical that may sound,” Leviev said. “Unlike Western high-precision bombs, the UMPK kits are produced relatively cheaply and in large quantities, using civilian electronics, where reliability requirements are much lower.”
Based on statements from the Ukrainians about the numbers of bombs launched and the tallies from Astra about misfires, the CIT estimated a failure rate of 4 to 6 percent.
“Under normal conditions, such a system would need to be improved, at a minimum, to avoid falls on populated areas on our territory, which we have already seen and which also led to casualties,” the group said to The Post in response to queries on the misfires. “We don’t know whether the Russian Federation is currently spending resources on this. Perhaps they are quite happy with this situation.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

Footage from today's Russian strikes with Iskander-M ballistic missiles carrying cluster warhead targeting the Ukrainian Myrhorod Air Base in Poltava Oblast.

At least one Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jet was destroyed while a few other were possibly damaged.

The strikes were monitored by a Russian reconnaissance UAV.

x.com

x.com

Bad day for Ukraine’s Air Force. Russia posts footage of drone-guided Iskander missile strikes that destroyed or damaged several Ukrainian Su-27 and Su-24 jets in Myrhorod air base near Poltava.

x.com

x.com

The spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force Yuriy Ignat acknowledged Russian missile strikes on the Myrhorod Air Base and admitted that they caused losses, though, according to him, not as big as claimed by the Russians.

In his statement, he also defended the personnel of the Ukrainian Air Force, after some people started blaming certain commanders for negligence.

Ukrainian air base under frequent fire as Russia aims at F-16 arrivals

Explosions reverberated across the pre-dawn sky as Ukrainian air defences fended off a Russian attack on this small city in western Ukraine, home to an important air base and a frequent target of Moscow's strikes.
Hours after the assault, the tidy streets of Starokostiantyniv had returned to a semblance of normality.
But the June 27 attack was a stark reminder of the challenges Kyiv faces as it rebuilds its depleted air force and deploys the first U.S.-designed F-16s - fighter aircraft that Russia will be determined to ground or destroy.
The first planes are expected to arrive this month, and Ukraine hopes they will boost forces struggling to repel a Russian onslaught along the front line, which includes devastating glide bombs that F-16s could potentially disrupt.
Officials have not revealed where the F-16s will be based, but Moscow said after the strike on Starokostiantyniv last Thursday that it had targeted airfields it believed would house them.
The air base has come under frequent attack since the first days of Russia's February 2022 invasion, including from drones and hypersonic missiles.
Residents of this historic military outpost of around 30,000 people, nicknamed Starkon, in Ukraine's Khmelnytskyi region have learned to adjust to the constant danger.
"In short, it's 'fun' to live here," said city official and local culture expert Vasyl Muliar with a wry smile, speaking after the recent attack.

A Ukrainian air force spokesman said the strikes presented "certain difficulties", but would not undermine the delivery of F-16s or their use in battle.
Separately on Tuesday, Russia's defence ministry said it had destroyed five Ukrainian SU-27 fighter jets at Myrhorod airfield in Poltava region. Ukraine said the claim was exaggerated.
Military analysts said the Russians were probably targeting air base infrastructure such as runways and storage facilities to make getting F-16s airborne more difficult, and, when they arrive, the Western jets themselves.
The Ukrainian military, which is low on air-defence ammunition, is also likely to be forced to move the prized planes around airfields, said Justin Bronk, of the Royal United Services Institute.
"Any ground-based air defence coverage can be saturated if the Russians care enough to fire enough missiles at one target," he said.

After last Thursday's attack, Governor Serhiy Tyurin said air defences had destroyed nine targets over his region. Shortly before it, the air force had warned residents that drones were headed toward Starokostiantyniv.
Local residents, careful not to divulge what might be considered sensitive military information, described living under the threat of being struck and amid the frequent roar of Ukrainian warplanes in the skies above.
Iryna Sapchuk, editor-in-chief of local newspaper Our City, said her parents' home had been hit in a previous raid, damaging the roof and shed.
"They found debris from a missile in a cherry tree by the window," she added.
As in many other towns and cities across Ukraine, people appeared eager to project a sense of resilience despite the danger of war and inconvenience of frequent power outages caused by Russian attacks on the energy system.
Road works continued as jets streaked overhead, while families and groups of teenagers cooled off at the local beach.
When she travels around Ukraine, Sapchuk said, she found it hard to cope without the noise of airplanes.
"It's too quiet for me," she joked, adding that the sound had become a comforting sign that Ukraine's outnumbered pilots were putting up a fight.
Muliar, the local official, pointed to the city's history as a 16th-century bastion of defence and, hundreds of years later, key nerve center for independence fighters of the fledgling Ukrainian People's Republic after World War One.
"This was always a centre of resistance."

x.com

x.com

About yesterday’s strike on Crimea:

“In the evening, 07/01/2024, a missile strike was carried out on a facility of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the area of Cape Fiolent, Sevastopol.

The strike was carried out using cruise missiles of an unidentified type.

The target of the strike was the Shahed-136/Geran-2 UAV warehouse.
The approximate amount of destroyed units is 90.

There is no information about casualties among personnel.“

x.com

x.com

Copying Ukraine's experience - Russian forces developed a light buggy for mobile CUAS operations.

x.com

x.com

The Dutch government will soon deliver 24 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. This decision marks the final significant act of the outgoing cabinet. Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced the approval of the export license for these jets.

x.com

x.com

Training of 1st Separate Marine Battalion of 36th Marine Brigade by instructors of Ukrainian 151st Training Center.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Less than half of Ukrainians say society is united, survey finds

Chief among the reasons for societal disunity were corruption (16%), language issues (14%), and lack of trust in authorities (13%).

kyivindependent.com

Only 44% of Ukrainians believe that there is unity in society, according to a survey released on July 2 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

At the same time, 36% of respondents said there are equal measures of unity and disunity, and a minority said there was only disunity (15%).

Chief among the reasons for societal disunity were corruption (16%), language issues (14%), and lack of trust in authorities (13%).

There was a slight but noticeable variation in the assessment across Ukraine, with the highest number (50%) in the west saying they believed there was unity in society, and the lowest number (36%) in the east of the country.

There were also discrepancies based on which language respondents said they used at home.

Among those who said Russian is their primary private language of communication, 33% said they thought there was unity in society, compared to 31% who believed there was disunity.

In contrast, 47% of respondents who said that Ukrainian was the primary language they used at home said they thought there was unity in society, and only 11% said they believed there was disunity.

"Considering the objective circumstances of the current situation, the assessment of social unity is at a fairly good level for the country," said Anton Hrushetskyi, the executive director of KIIS.

Previous KIIS polls have found that "consistently more than 70% of Ukrainians claim that they are ready to endure the war as long as it will be necessary for Ukraine to achieve success."

"However, the demand for a fair distribution of the wartime burden among citizens is becoming more and more acute," Hrushetskyi said.

Ukraine war: Marine reveals struggle of defending Kharkiv

Talking to the BBC, the marine describes the struggle of battling Russian advances near Kharkiv.

www.bbc.com

For months, Oleksiy has been fighting to hold a thin strip of land surrounded by Russian forces.
Now he’s been rushed to defend Moscow’s onslaught in the Kharkiv region, like many other soldiers scrambled from other parts of Ukraine’s front line.
It’s a redeployment symptomatic of this war’s new focus.
We’ve been in touch with Oleksiy for the past nine months. Now from north-eastern Ukraine, he’s described the difference in fighting as “huge”.
Despite limited supplies, minimal gains and mounting losses, Kyiv insists its southern foothold on the occupied eastern bank of Dnipro River is still significant.
It’s where Oleksiy had been fighting for the past eight months. We’ve agreed not to reveal his real name.
We last spoke with him six months ago, where he described the conditions on the swampy riverside as “hell”.
Things haven’t improved.

“We’d managed to maintain the bridgehead, but no equipment has crossed it, and we haven’t once broken through Russian defences,” he says.
The marine tells us the area had been reduced to a “moonscape”, with entire villages being razed to their foundations.
The Ukrainians have also suffered heavy losses there too.
“We destroyed a lot of Russian equipment, and they destroyed a lot of our personnel,” he says. “We’ve left our best guys on the riverside.”
Despite minimal progress and mounting losses, Ukraine’s military says it’s pursuing three aims with this bridgehead:

1. To draw invading troops from elsewhere
2. To limit Russian artillery strikes on Kherson city across the river
3. To eventually cross it in large enough numbers to liberate territory

Oleksiy says promised US military aid was gradually starting to arrive, but not all of it was making it to the front line where he was based.
Despite partially forcing the Russians back, Ukrainian troops still endure constant Russian fire.
“Any movement was immediately covered by artillery or drones,” he explains. “The Russians didn’t seem concerned by our presence there either; we had become a suitcase without a handle.
“The troops there can’t leave, and everyone understands that’s useless.”
It’s hoped a new mobilisation law, which came into force last month, will help give troops like those fighting on the eastern bank a rest.
“It won’t change anything!” says Boston, a flamethrower unit commander who is still fighting on the eastern bank. Boston is his military code name.
He sends us videos of him on patrol in Krynky by the riverside. At one point he shoots a Russian anti-personnel mine hidden beneath the sand.
“People should join the army from 20,” he says. “But there is a problem, a lot of men went abroad [to escape the draft]. No-one wants to come back, no-one wants to fight, and no-one wants to die.”

Ahead of the arrival of more Western military aid, Ukrainian generals believe Russia is trying to expand the battlefield and further stretch their defending units.
Invading troops are more than a month into a north-eastern ground offensive, and while Ukraine has slowed their advances, there’s been no letting up.
It’s why Oleksiy now finds himself hundreds of kilometres away from the Kherson region.
“Everything happened in a hurry and there was no preparation,” he says.
“Everyone is here: marines, air assault forces, the State Border Guard Service, regular infantry, territorial defence and national police.”
“There are also more drones in the sky compared to the east bank of the Dnipro.”

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia successfully destroyed at least two SU-27's of the Ukrainians and damaged 4 more. (Russia says they destroyed 5 planes)

Russia has really made airbases a priority which is most likely due to the impending deliveries of F-16's. You can really get a sense that the Russians are fearful of what the F-16's will be able to do in the war.

 

[The Z Machine]

Russia successfully destroyed at least two SU-27's of the Ukrainians and damaged 4 more. (Russia says they destroyed 5 planes)

Russia has really made airbases a priority which is most likely due to the impending deliveries of F-16's. You can really get a sense that the Russians are fearful of what the F-16's will be able to do in the war.

Or they want to have better glide bomb access as they advance into more territory. Russia really messed up this one early when they didn't properly take out all of Ukraine's air force, radar, and SAM sites. They really would have been able to march on Kiev then. Glad the screwed up and couldn't get it done.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia successfully destroyed at least two SU-27's of the Ukrainians and damaged 4 more. (Russia says they destroyed 5 planes)

Russia has really made airbases a priority which is most likely due to the impending deliveries of F-16's. You can really get a sense that the Russians are fearful of what the F-16's will be able to do in the war.

Or they want to have better glide bomb access as they advance into more territory. Russia really messed up this one early when they didn't properly take out all of Ukraine's air force, radar, and SAM sites. They really would have been able to march on Kiev then. Glad the screwed up and couldn't get it done.

My amateur, what the hell do I really know, opinion is that the failure of the Russians to repel the Ukrainian counter attacks on the Antonov Airport as well as another military airbase near Vaslikiv (spelling may be off there) was the crucial turning point for the Ukrainians to hold the invasion and then begin to beat it back. The Russian plan seems to have been heavily reliant on securing these to land more troops and then quickly secure Kyiv with the assistance of the armored collum coming to relieve them. The Ukrainians successfully counter attacked and the collum ended in a traffic jam being terrorized by those Turkish drones.

In the end, the Russian overestimated their capability and underestimated the Ukrainian ability to resist. If Putin knew this is where he would be sitting a couple of years later, there is no way he would have launched this war.

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv launches attack on Putin’s Black Sea naval base

Kyiv fired two drones at Novorossiysk, which were shot down by Russian defences, officials said

www.independent.co.uk

Russia is ordering its troops to kill Ukrainian prisoners of war – why?
Russian commanders are ordering their forces to kill surrendering Ukrainian soldiers in a plan to “terrify” droves of Russian troops into not giving themselves up.

Many newly conscripted and poorly trained Russian soldiers realise their lives are being squandered in human-wave attacks, according to Ukrainian officials.

Petro Yatsenko, a spokesperson for Kyiv’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, says orders to kill Ukrainians who could be taken prisoner come from the “highest level” – the Kremlin. The instructions are designed to “terrify” their own soldiers, he adds.

While the true number of slain soldiers is currently not known, evidence of Moscow’s ‘take no prisoners’ policy is starting to become horrifyingly clear. Askold Krushelnycky reports

 

[Don't Toews Me]

"We’ll defend it with our lives" - visiting the Ukrainian brigade holding the most strategically important city in the Donbas

“Lie down, cover your ears, open your mouths.”

As training exercises go, it’s fairly dramatic. “Odesa”, an intelligence officer in the Ukrainian military’s elite 93rd Mechanized Brigade casually pulls the pin out of a live fragmentation grenade and drops it into a small trench two metres away from our position, with the practised ease of a soldier who has done this dozens of times.

A few seconds later, the grenade detonates. Smoke and a small amount of dirt flies out of the shallow trench.

Odesa grins. “All our trainees go through this exercise”, he says. “It's to demonstrate how a weapon like this works. To teach them not to panic; to show that as long as you’re in cover you’re perfectly safe”.
I’ve been taken to one of the many training grounds used by the 93rd, a short distance behind the front line at a secret location in Donetsk Oblast. As we watch, around a hundred members of the 93rd run through combat drills. The brigade’s combat instructors observe with hawk-like attentiveness.

“There’s a lot of military here,” Taras, a senior NCO in the 93rd and our guide for the last two days, says. “So there’s a small chance of a Russian missile strike. But only 5 to 10 percent.” It’s not entirely clear if he’s joking; Russian reconnaissance drones are a relatively constant presence in the skies above. Everything within a 30km radius of the front is reliably visible to Russian eyes.

The 93rd are extremely well equipped for a Ukrainian brigade. They’re also well trained, led, and have a strong esprit de corps - the common sense of pride and comradeship shared by members of a capable military unit. As such, despite being consistently deployed to the most dangerous sections of the front, the 93rd have a waiting-list to join.

Alongside the equally elite 24th Mechanized Brigade, the 93rd have anchored the defence in Chasiv Yar for months. Odesa describes the city as “the most strategically important position in the whole region”, an opinion shared by many Ukrainian, Western and Russian analysts alike. If Chasiv Yar falls, Odesa believes, the rest of the Oblast will not be far behind.

Sitting on high ground, the city overlooks the crucial logistical hub of Kostyantynivka, as well as the twin industrial cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. The Russians have taken a foothold in the eastern-most “Kanal” district of the city, but the majority of the city remains firmly in Ukrainian hands. And crucially, the Ukrainian defenders have managed to keep the Russians from crossing the key Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal that sits on the eastern edge of the city in force. Now drained of water, the empty canal is a significant obstacle for Russian armoured vehicles.

Taras believes the recent Russian incursion into Kharkiv Oblast was at least partially designed to draw Ukrainian forces away from the Donbas, and particularly from around Chasiv Yar. It was at least partially successful, with the 92nd Assault Brigade, 42nd Mechanized Brigade, and the Kraken special forces unit all being redirected to help repel the Russian push towards Ukraine’s second city. Despite the significant amount of Ukrainian military strength being drawn away by Russia’s Kharkiv offensive, they haven’t been able to capitalise by advancing in Chasiv Yar.

I ask what the conditions are currently like for the 93rd’s soldiers fighting in the city. “It’s hell”, Taras tells me. The Russians are using everything in their arsenal in increasingly desperate attempts to advance. Human wave assaults, heavy glide bombs, thermobaric rockets and huge numbers of FPV drones are being thrown at the Ukrainian defenders, who are outnumbered and outgunned.

“There’s not much we can do against the glide-bombs”, Taras explains. “We do get some warning when they’re incoming, but then we just have to hunker-down and hope they don’t land directly on our positions.”

I ask about the brigade’s artillery. The recent package of U.S. aid has made a significant difference, Taras says, and Odesa agrees. The 93rd’s artillery batteries, who recently had to fire as few as 1 shell to every 10 the Russians fired, are now receiving significant shipments of shells. Now the ratio is only 8 to 10, Taras says.

Where the Russians really outnumber the 93rd is in manpower. “Our soldiers are the bravest fighters in the world”, Odesa says. “But for each Ukrainian soldier, the Russians have up to 8 of their own”. And still, the 93rd hold. For now. Odesa pauses. “They’re criminals and mercenaries'', he says. “We’re defending our country. And we’ll defend it with our lives.”

x.com

x.com

Ukrainian government sources have long highlighted Russian theft of Ukrainian resources from areas it has occupied. Iron ore, coal, titanium, uranium, manganese, gold and lithium deposits are all present in Ukraine, resources which are almost certainly coveted by Russia but also potential targets as Russia seeks to grind down Ukraine’s economy, denying access and destroying infrastructure.

One of the reasons Russia seeks to improve transportation networks in occupied Ukraine is because it wants to extract more Ukrainian minerals. The Russian occupation official for Zaporizhzhia region previously claimed the ongoing upgrading and construction of road and rail transportation links to Russia would improve the lines of communication not only for military logistics, but grain and mineral export.

South of Dniprorudne in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, Russia continues its mining activity, removing iron ore by rail.

x.com

x.com

The 3rd German donated Patriot system has been delivered to Ukraine recently per the German ambassador. In total, Ukraine is now operating 4 Patriot systems.

x.com

x.com

Fascinating look at force density in Ukraine, then and now, by @dupuyinstitute. Currently around 643 troops per kilometre. That is around a quarter of the typical density on the western front in the second world war. In 1967 war the lower bound was 813.
But hard to attribute this all to tech & as it's hardly unprecedentedly low. "In the 1991 Gulf War, we also see a lower deployment density. In the 15 engagements in our division-level database we have...densities ranging from 89 to 1,200 men per kilometer"

x.com

x.com

A larger UAV attack against the Russian Rostov region occurred last night.locals report that an oil terminal was hit.

Source: Telegram / OperativnoZSU

 

[Don't Toews Me]

What Ukraine's partial Chasiv Yar withdrawal actually means

Ukraine announced on July 4 that its troops had withdrawn from the Kanal neighborhood in Chasiv Yar, a strategically important town in Donetsk Oblast, and the scene of an intense, bloody battle that began in early April of this year. Speaking on national TV, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the

kyivindependent.com

In a comment from Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade communications unit, a serviceman told the Kyiv Independent the withdrawal became necessary as resupplying men and materiel to the Kanal neighborhood was becoming increasingly difficult.

"For us, it means we have fixed our logistics because our logistics to that district were awful, and it was very hard to keep this part of the battlefield," he said.

"Holding the area was quite important for us, but it was more important not to lose people."

He pointed out that Russia would face the same issues if it tried to cross the canal separating the two armies, and one of Ukraine's priorities now will be to "crash their logistics" from their new positions.

"The enemy is also trying to regroup, and we will wait to see which direction they will continue their offensive," he added.

Retired military officer and defense expert Viktor Kevliuk told the Kyiv Independent the withdrawal from the Kanal neighborhood has "no strategic consequences."

Kevliuk said that Russia's advance was also an attempt to secure the flank of the Russian group attacking Toretsk, located around 22 kilometers south of Chasiv Yar.

The Ukrainian military reported on June 18 an increase in Russian attacks near Toretsk after a "long lull" in fighting in the area.

A few days later, it was reported that Russian forces were attacking Chasiv Yar from the direction of Toretsk.

Kevliuk echoed the Ukrainian army line that its forces had no option but to withdraw from the Kanal neighborhood after its defensive positions there were "completely destroyed."

"The (Russian) 98th Airborne Division brought all three of its regiments into battle – the 217th, 299th, and 331st, which made it possible to significantly increase efforts in this direction and take full control of the Kanal neighborhood," he said.

"Units of the 11th Airborne Assault Brigade and parts of the 102nd Regiment of the 150th Division also took part in the attacks," he added.
Commenting on why the U.S. assistance package, approved more than two months ago, did not help to stem the tide in Chasiv Yar, Kevliuk said that American aid would not prevent the effective destruction of the Kanal neighborhood.

Not only does it take time to produce and deliver the aid, it is also necessary to have trained manpower to operate it, he added.

"(Ukrainian) defense forces in the area have no more than 14,000 people," Kevliuk added, summing up the number for Chasiv Yar and neighboring Klischiivka, Andriivka, and positions around Kurdiumivka.

"A Russian group of 48,000 people is advancing on Chasiv Yar. Up to 6,000 more have been allocated to Klischiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdiumivka."

If Russia were able to take the town, it would have a significant impact on the war in Donetsk Oblast.

Taking Chasiv Yar is crucial for Russia's larger offensive in the east, and the deployment of elite Russian airborne troops is evidence of just how important it is for the Kremlin.

If Russia captures Chasiv Yar, it will gain fire control over key Ukrainian supply routes, severely hampering operations in the area.

Ultimately, the fall of Chasiv Yar would mean the last Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk Oblast – the cities of Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk – would be under massive threat from Russian forces.

Colonel: Russia will likely take Soviet-era BTR-60s to battle at some point

Russia has the human resources to maintain its activity on the battlefield, but the question remains how it supports this with other means, Lt. Col. Toomas Väli said on the "Ukraina stuudio" talk show. In his opinion, Russia might even send Soviet-era BTR armored personnel carriers into the war...

news.err.ee

Russia has the human resources to maintain its activity on the battlefield, but the question remains how it supports this with other means, Lt. Col. Toomas Väli said on the "Ukraina stuudio" talk show. In his opinion, Russia might even send Soviet-era BTR armored personnel carriers into the war at some point.

On "Ukraina stuudio," Lt. Col. Toomas Väli discussed that Russian forces could likely sustain their infantry assaults in Ukraine for quite some time. However, modern machinery to support these assaults might become scarce for the Russian army.

"Based on public sources, there is an interesting trend observed from satellite surveillance of repair bases, counting tanks and armored vehicles. It appears they are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Most MT-LB (armored tracked vehicles) have already been removed from repair sites. There might still be some MT-LBu (amphibious armored vehicles) available. Regarding BMDs and BMPs, the infantry and airborne combat vehicles, the remaining ones in storage are likely not worth moving. I believe we will eventually see BTR-60s and BTR-70s, Soviet-era armored personnel carriers, on the battlefield," Väli said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US, NATO to pledge additional Patriots for Ukraine during DC summit

The U.S. and other NATO countries will pledge additional air defenses for Ukraine during the summit in Washington next week, including three Patriot batteries, as the alliance rushes to help Kyiv protect its energy infrastructure from relentless Russian missile attacks.

The U.S. will send one additional Patriot, according to a Defense Department official and two people familiar with discussions. The other two Patriots will come from Germany and Romania, while a SAMP/T system, produced jointly by Italy and France, will also be part of the package, according to one of the people familiar. All were granted anonymity to speak ahead of an expected announcement.

Zelenskiy: Ukraine wants to double air defence capabilities through the summer

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday he wanted to double Ukraine's air defence capacity over the summer after receiving the country's third German-supplied Patriot system in response to pleas for equipment to guard against Russian air strikes.

Russian drone attack on Ukraine hits energy facility in Sumy region

Russia launched an overnight drone attack across Ukraine on Saturday, hitting an energy facility in the Sumy region in the northeast of the country, officials said.
Ukrainian mobile drone hunter groups and air defence units shot down 24 of the 27 Russian drones fired on 12 regions, the air force said.
National grid operator Ukrenergo said the energy facility in the Sumy region was damaged, forcing emergency electricity shut-offs for industrial consumers in the city of Sumy. Repair teams were working to restore supplies, it said.

Russian drone attack cuts water supply in northern Ukrainian city, officials say

Russian drone attacks on the northern Ukrainian city of Sumy early on Saturday cut power to the local water system and knocked out the water supply, officials were quoted as saying.
Public broadcaster Suspilne reported a series of explosions in the city northeast of the capital Kyiv. It quoted municipal officials as saying water supplies had been temporarily cut.
Reuters could not independently confirm the attacks.