This was posted by Knowledge Reigns Supreme discussing an alternative to the NFL formula to determine strength of schedule. Enjoy...
Here is the Thread:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=219831
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Posted this a couple days late (since I wanted to get it in before the playoffs), but here's the results:
1: Indianapolis 12.73998309
2: Seattle 12.33158778
3: Denver 11.72657562
4: Carolina 11.62150062
5: Pittsburgh 11.61200227
6: New York (N) 10.69313026
7: Jacksonville 10.68097484
8: San Diego 10.66675555
9: Chicago 10.32398683
10: Kansas City 9.996202598
11: Washington 9.889491453
12: Cincinnati 9.723496483
13: New England 9.078746561
14: Tampa Bay 8.856090406
15: Dallas 8.508626784
16: Atlanta 8.273890579
17: Miami 8.029848218
18: Minnesota 6.89735056
19: Baltimore 6.863355775
20: Green Bay 6.65213073
21: St. Louis 6.436684877
22: Arizona 5.972487011
23: Philadelphia 5.921132865
24: Cleveland 5.607082773
25: Oakland 5.454605372
26: Buffalo 5.242901996
27: Detroit 5.218110878
28: Tennessee 4.922812775
29: New York (A) 4.533918104
30: Houston 3.709608781
31: New Orleans 3.566828298
32: San Francisco 3.213809086
Of the top 12 teams, 7 AFC/5 NFC. Last year it was much more lopsided for the AFC (6 of the top 7 were AFC).
Biggest overachievers:
Tampa Bay +2.14 games (8.85 expected wins, 11 actual wins)
Minnesota +2.10 games (6.89 expected wins, 9 actual wins)
Biggest underachievers:
Green Bay -2.65 games (6.65 expected wins, 4 actual wins)
PWT says teams that over/underachieve should return to their expected range the following year.
Let's check how PWT did for 2005:
Biggest overachievers:
#1) Pittsburgh 11.48 expected wins, 15 actual 3.518 difference
#2) Atlanta 8.083 expected wins, 11 actual 2.916 difference
#3) St. Louis 6.084 expected wins, 8 actual 1.915 difference
PWT was money as all three teams hit their expected win total in year N+1
And just for jwvdcw who swore last year that Atlanta didn't overachieve last year, but was just good at winning close games... well here's some proof that they just got lucky (I mentioned the reasons why in another thread which boiled down to INT returns for TDs and an abnormal fumble recovery rate).
Biggest underachievers:
#1) Tampa Bay 9.233 expected wins, 7 actual -2.233 difference
#2) Kansas City 8.987 expected wins, 7 actual -1.987 difference
#3) Buffalo 10.977 expected wins, 9 actual -1.977 difference
Money on KC, pretty good on Tampa (who underperformed for two consecutive years and have now overperformed this year) and completely missed the boat on Buffalo.