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***Official Soccer Discussion Thread*** (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter jpeace121
- Start date
jonessed
Footballguy
AVB can't really stop players from making bonehead errors. He's done a fantastic job since he started at Tottenham.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
4-4.
AVB's defensive strategy for this game has been dumbfounding.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
CL draw is at 7 AM ET.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Not much has changed. Dempsey was not healthy enough to be on the roster today. His last chance to get in some game time before Klinsmann makes the roster will be on Sunday. The US's first of two qualifiers is one week from today (Friday). Dempsey and Johnson both will be watched closely this weekend. I am not looking forward to seeing these two qualifiers if the US is missing arguably 4 of its top 5 players. The US could get itself in a hole very hard to get out of. 3 points against Costa Rica and at least the pressure will be off even if Mexico cleans their clock in the Azteca.It was a busy day with rumors and what not concerning US players health(physical and mental) but here we go. In my long time fandom with the US going back to the late 80's, this is the most injuries to important players(not squad players, or starters but arguably some of the best on the team), I think the team has ever had to deal with for one cycle.* Donovan - Returning to practice on March 25th, obviously out of qualifiers* Cherundolo - just started to train again after a long period of being injured. Out for qualifiers* Howard - Two broken bones in back, out for qualifiers* Castillo - Broken face, out for qualifiers* Fabian Johnson - Injury looks minor and is already back training after missing just one game. Is expected to play in qualifiers* Dempsey - Has been out a few games but Klinsmann said today he is expected to be available for the Inter game this week. If so I think he is safe to consider for the qualifiersOn the plus side, Jones did not get hurt this week. Granted he was sitting with yet another suspension (natch)On the negative side, Boca has not played a second in over a month on a team in the relegation zone in the second division in Spain.If Bradley goes down before the qualifiers I think I might just say "I give, this may not be our cycle"
Klinsmann did not have much to say about Shea today outside of a random "hope he gets more playing time at Stoke" type of comment when asked what his affect might be on the qualifiers.On the other hand, he called Joe Benny's play "great" in the recent Copa matches, maybe giving a hint that Carona may get a roster spot.
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Are the ones on the same day in the same bracket? If so, hard to see Madrid not making the final...
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
No, looks like they draw for the semis on 4/12.
Is that new? I thought the path to the final got set in the quarters before.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Kind of new but only in that it is a separate day for the semi's draw I think. Last year they drew for quarters and semi's during the same day. http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/newsid=1770131.html
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Looks like Klinsmann is lining up a 5 game tournament again. May 29, Belgium - FriendlyJune 2, Germany - 100th Anniversary friendly*June 7, @Jamaica - WCQJune 11, Panama - WCQJune 18, Honduras -WCQ*Not yet confirmed but almost certain to happen from reportsIt is almost like you get to follow the team like a club team for a month. Kind of fun.'Steve Tasker said:
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Not a bad draw for Barca, with Ibra being out for the first leg.
I'd love to see Galatasaray keep it close in Madrid and set up an awesome/bat#### second game.
I'd love to see Galatasaray keep it close in Madrid and set up an awesome/bat#### second game.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I also saw on ESPN that Beckham is the only English player left in the tourney.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
great stat!
So the real question behind all of this for me is: Is this a trend for the EPL or simply a blip?# of EPL teams in CL Quarterfinals2010/2011 32011/2012 12012/2013 0
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Only one week to go for the US (and really most of the rest of the world) to start up qualifying again.
I love qualifying because I look at it like a big puzzle.
This years puzzle for me is how does the US get to 16 points in the hex. I believe 16 may be enough this time around as I expect a more balanced final round with teams unexpectedly getting and losing points.
So with 9 games left, how does the US get to 16 points? Instead of trying to predict every game, I will try and group them outside of 1.
The home games: I believe the US must secure 12 points from these 5 games
Costa Rica
Honduras
Panama
Mexico
Jamaica
If the US gets those 12 points at home, that leaves 4 that need to be fetched on the road from 4 games left
I believe the US will need 1 point from these 3 games. While this sounds straight forward, the US has less than a stellar record at these 3 venues (especially with Costa Rica using the hell hole Saprissa for the US match)
@Mexico
@Jamaica
@Costa Rica
And that leaves the one game I feel the US must win on road, which is @Panama. I am hopeful since this is the very last game of qualifying that Panama may be eliminated at that time. However, if the group is more balanced as I predicted, there is a good chance they will still be in play for 4th, making this a much tougher game.
I love qualifying because I look at it like a big puzzle.
This years puzzle for me is how does the US get to 16 points in the hex. I believe 16 may be enough this time around as I expect a more balanced final round with teams unexpectedly getting and losing points.
So with 9 games left, how does the US get to 16 points? Instead of trying to predict every game, I will try and group them outside of 1.
The home games: I believe the US must secure 12 points from these 5 games
Costa Rica
Honduras
Panama
Mexico
Jamaica
If the US gets those 12 points at home, that leaves 4 that need to be fetched on the road from 4 games left
I believe the US will need 1 point from these 3 games. While this sounds straight forward, the US has less than a stellar record at these 3 venues (especially with Costa Rica using the hell hole Saprissa for the US match)
@Mexico
@Jamaica
@Costa Rica
And that leaves the one game I feel the US must win on road, which is @Panama. I am hopeful since this is the very last game of qualifying that Panama may be eliminated at that time. However, if the group is more balanced as I predicted, there is a good chance they will still be in play for 4th, making this a much tougher game.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I've already chalked up the @Mexico game as a loss. Any points they can get from that is a bonus.
I really think that the home games against Jamaica, Panama, Honduras, and Costa Rica are essentally must-wins. Maybe they could sneak by with 1 draw out of those 4, but they need at least 3 wins and 10 points, IMO. Anything less than 10 points from those 4 and I'll be very worried.
That leaves @Jamaica, @Panama, @CR, and home to Mexico. I think 6 points is doable from that group. They SHOULD be able to get 4-6 road points on the 3 road games. @CR is always a nightmare but I think they could pick up 1-2 wins and 1-2 draws from that group of 3. Home to Mexico is a mystery to me. I think the US can get points, I just don't know if it's 1 or 3. If they split the 3 road games 1-1-1 and get 1 from the Mexico game, that's only 15. Is that good enough?
Every game is crucial, but I think the US needs to be nearly flawless at home this time around. There are no minnows out there where the US can just sleepwalk through a road game and win by 2 goals. I'm not sure any game is more crucial than the others, but I think the two Mexico games could be telling. If they can manage a win in either game, or maybe even 2 draws, I think they'll be alright.
I really think that the home games against Jamaica, Panama, Honduras, and Costa Rica are essentally must-wins. Maybe they could sneak by with 1 draw out of those 4, but they need at least 3 wins and 10 points, IMO. Anything less than 10 points from those 4 and I'll be very worried.
That leaves @Jamaica, @Panama, @CR, and home to Mexico. I think 6 points is doable from that group. They SHOULD be able to get 4-6 road points on the 3 road games. @CR is always a nightmare but I think they could pick up 1-2 wins and 1-2 draws from that group of 3. Home to Mexico is a mystery to me. I think the US can get points, I just don't know if it's 1 or 3. If they split the 3 road games 1-1-1 and get 1 from the Mexico game, that's only 15. Is that good enough?
Every game is crucial, but I think the US needs to be nearly flawless at home this time around. There are no minnows out there where the US can just sleepwalk through a road game and win by 2 goals. I'm not sure any game is more crucial than the others, but I think the two Mexico games could be telling. If they can manage a win in either game, or maybe even 2 draws, I think they'll be alright.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I'm not so secretly pulling for Málaga in CL so that if they win the whole thing, they're still banned from next year's tourney.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
15 is going to be awful close. 15 would have only qualified 3rd once, and would not even have been in 4th last go around.
In the past hexes this is where the lines fell for points
2010:
16 for 3rd
16 for 4th
Top Country 20
Bottom Country had 6
2006:
16 for 3rd
13 for 4th
Top Country had 22
Bottom Country had 2
2002:
17 for 3rd
14 for 4th
Top Country had 23
Bottom Country had 5
1998:
14 for 3rd
12 for 4th
Top Country had 18
Bottom Country had 6
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jonessed
Footballguy
Why did they stop paying their wages anyway? The owner is worth billions so they don't have a cash flow problem. Why would someone eat the loss of CL money so he can delay paying wages when he doesn't have to? There's clearly something I'm missing here.'The Z Machine said:
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I think it's a little fluky. City got drawn into a very difficult group, and Man U pulled RM in the round of 16, and THEN needed a questionable red card to get eliminated. They could've easily had two.I think La Liga is tougher than the EPL, simply because it's a tougher league top-to-bottom, not because they have 3 teams in the quarters and England has 0.'NewlyRetired said:great stat!'Slapdash said:'Good said:
Sebowski
Footballguy
Man City only got 3pts out of group stage and zero wins. Don't make any excuses for them.I think it's a little fluky. City got drawn into a very difficult group, and Man U pulled RM in the round of 16, and THEN needed a questionable red card to get eliminated. They could've easily had two.I think La Liga is tougher than the EPL, simply because it's a tougher league top-to-bottom, not because they have 3 teams in the quarters and England has 0.'NewlyRetired said:great stat!'Slapdash said:'Good said:
Moe.
Footballguy
True, but that doesn't change the fact that it was a rough draw. Dortmund had one of the lower coefficients which is obviously out of whack and City's hasn't really caught up to how strong their team is. Then you put Madrid in there from pot 1 and a solid team from pot 3...Man City only got 3pts out of group stage and zero wins. Don't make any excuses for them.I think it's a little fluky. City got drawn into a very difficult group, and Man U pulled RM in the round of 16, and THEN needed a questionable red card to get eliminated. They could've easily had two.I think La Liga is tougher than the EPL, simply because it's a tougher league top-to-bottom, not because they have 3 teams in the quarters and England has 0.'NewlyRetired said:great stat!'Slapdash said:'Good said:
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
I've been completely baffled by this too. I've read some articles on Malaga but nobody can explain what's really going on. Even if he's lost interest in the club, it's financially a bad idea not to pay the wages. A CL ban seriously hurts the potential sale value of the club.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
True, but that doesn't change the fact that it was a rough draw. Dortmund had one of the lower coefficients which is obviously out of whack and City's hasn't really caught up to how strong their team is. Then you put Madrid in there from pot 1 and a solid team from pot 3...Man City only got 3pts out of group stage and zero wins. Don't make any excuses for them.I think it's a little fluky. City got drawn into a very difficult group, and Man U pulled RM in the round of 16, and THEN needed a questionable red card to get eliminated. They could've easily had two.I think La Liga is tougher than the EPL, simply because it's a tougher league top-to-bottom, not because they have 3 teams in the quarters and England has 0.'NewlyRetired said:great stat!'Slapdash said:'Good said:
They got their asses kicked, but they're comfortably in second place in one of the top 3 leagues in the world. That's nothing to sniff at.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
This is a good topic that I struggle with and would enjoy reading yours and others thoughts.How do you quantify this? This is what I think:
*The CL gives us a rough idea of the strength of the top of the leagues (comparing the leagues with a similar amount of entrants is probably the fairest)
*The Europa leagues gives us a much rougher idea of the next tier (this is rougher since many teams of the teams do not always put out their A side but it does give us a look at the depth of the squads which is certainly a component of strength).
But how do you best rate say from the middle of a league on down with anothers middle of the league on down? Do you compare how easily the top teams dominate the bottom teams and then compare cross leagues or do you use another method?
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Pelligrini could be a hot commodity, and tough to hang on to without the CL.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I don't think there's much in the way of good evidence. Even the CL or the Europa are pretty limited sample sizes. Malaga is alive and Man U is not, but it doesn't follow that Malaga is better than Man U.For me, it's more of an eyeball test, and the belief that -- and I hate to verge into LHUCKS territory here -- that there's a bit of a bias towards England. I also think that La Liga having two really good teams that are on top year after year is indicative of the rest of the league being weak...but I don't think that's the case. I think RM and Barcelona are both just really, really good.
The Bundesliga is no slouch either, obviously.
What did it look like the ten years before that?'NewlyRetired said:great stat!'Slapdash said:'Good said:
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
ok thanks, I thought it might have been an eyeball type test. I guess there is no real way to know.And yes I do understand that Malaga is not better than Man U just because they are still in it, that is why I tried to phrase it as a "rough" estimate.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
One metric is to look at transfer trends (transfermarkt.uk). Looking at recent windows, the EPL is still spending more than any other league, but they've also been doing a lot of selling lately and the other leagues seem to be catching up. Its not just the top clubs who are spending. For the last window QPR was 4th in Europe (behind PSG, Anzhi, and Milan), Liverpool 5th and Newcastle 7th.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I hate how the US is always the last to release its rosters 
Here is Spain's. Torres was dropped for the upcoming qualifiers
Complete list:
Goalkeepers: Victor Valdes (Barcelona), Pepe Reina (Liverpool/ING) and David de Gea (Manchester United/ING)
Defense: Sergio Ramos, Alvaro Arbeloa, Raul Albiol (Real Madrid), Gerard Pique, Jordi Alba (Barcelona), Cesar Azpilicueta (Chelsea/ING) and Ignacio Monreal (Arsenal/ING).
Midfielders: Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid), Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta, Sergio Busquets, Cesc Fabregas (Barcelona), Santi Cazorla (Arsenal/ING), Javi Garcia (Manchester City/ING), Jesus Navas (Sevilla) and 'Isco' Alarcon (Málaga).
Forwards: David Silva (Manchester City/ING), Pedro Rodriguez, David Villa (Barcelona), Juan Manuel Mata (Chelsea/ING) and Alvaro Negredo (Sevilla).
Here is Spain's. Torres was dropped for the upcoming qualifiersComplete list:
Goalkeepers: Victor Valdes (Barcelona), Pepe Reina (Liverpool/ING) and David de Gea (Manchester United/ING)
Defense: Sergio Ramos, Alvaro Arbeloa, Raul Albiol (Real Madrid), Gerard Pique, Jordi Alba (Barcelona), Cesar Azpilicueta (Chelsea/ING) and Ignacio Monreal (Arsenal/ING).
Midfielders: Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid), Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta, Sergio Busquets, Cesc Fabregas (Barcelona), Santi Cazorla (Arsenal/ING), Javi Garcia (Manchester City/ING), Jesus Navas (Sevilla) and 'Isco' Alarcon (Málaga).
Forwards: David Silva (Manchester City/ING), Pedro Rodriguez, David Villa (Barcelona), Juan Manuel Mata (Chelsea/ING) and Alvaro Negredo (Sevilla).
Not a surprise now that Villa is back.I hate how the US is always the last to release its rosters
jonessed
Footballguy
Trying to argue that Barca and RM are so much better than United and Chelsea that they simply dominate a comparable league would be very difficult to prove. RM has ridden their reputation for some years now as their performances in the CL have been pretty weak for quite some time (certainly less impressive than United or Chelsea).I consider Barca and RM to be the two best teams in the world, but from an international performance level RM has been sub-par.
I consider the EPL a deeper league because they share television revenue. It just makes sense from a financial perspective that smaller teams would be in a position to use those funds to acquire better talent (it's also the reason why they have so many foreign players up and down the rosters). The EPL generates the most TV revenue and Bundesliga is the only other league that shares in any similarly equitable way.
It's logical argument (for me), but impossible to prove. One of the counter arguments would be that Spain, as a country, has more natural talent and that bleeds through to the lower-level teams. I suppose the same can be argued for Germany or Italy. You are never going to get any conclusive evidence outside of perhaps "expert" opinions.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Seattle officially announced the Obafemi Martins signing today.
Sigi says he will be available to play against Portland tomorrow night. Game will be on NBCSN at 8:00pm
Sigi says he will be available to play against Portland tomorrow night. Game will be on NBCSN at 8:00pm
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
This is pretty cool
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Ives is reporting that Freddy Adu is closing in on a move to Bahia in the Brazilian 1st division. Please be true, please be true, please be true...
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
well that is one country he has not tried yet.
Beyond fascinating, especially considering the speed at which the Brazilian league is improving.And god yes does Philly need this badly. It would open up some real money for the summer transfer window.
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Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I can't really quantify why, but this year just feels different to me. In 2010 you had 2 total duds (El Salvador, T&T), 1 in 2006 (Panama - 2 points from 10 games!), 2 in 2002 (Jamaica and T&T), etc. I get the sense that CONCACAF is, top-to-bottom, a lot closer today than it was in those years. While that's bad for the USMNT as it means the lower-caliber teams are more on their level, I think it also means that the traditional favorites will drop points more often and that 15 may sneak in. You may see the bottom team coming in with 8-10 points though, rather than the ~6 we've seen in the past.I'm not really basing this on anything...just gut feeling.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
yeah I agree. If Jamaica is the real deal with the new batch of players they brought in, it throws a wrench into everything. And while Panama is not strong, they are certainly better than they were in 2002. They should have already beat Costa Rica in the first game. CR was flattered to escape with a point that night.I tried to express this in the poorly worded sentence below in my first post
"This years puzzle for me is how does the US get to 16 points in the hex. I believe 16 may be enough this time around as I expect a more balanced final round with teams unexpectedly getting and losing points."
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NewlyRetired
Footballguy
For the old timers here, you likely remember Jeff Bradley's boot room column as one of the first internet columns that gave a ton soccer info beyond the scores and standings. Jeff then moved on to other sports while still keeping his love for soccer via his brother and nephew.
Jeff has now come full circle and has been hired as a senior writer for MLSsoccer.com. Very cool
You can follow him at @JerseyJBradley
Jeff has now come full circle and has been hired as a senior writer for MLSsoccer.com. Very cool
You can follow him at @JerseyJBradley
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Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Yep. I'd much rather have Villa or Negredo up front than Torres. Or Michu. Puyol's off because he's apparently gimpy. But honestly I can't see him making the '14 WC at this point in his career. Azpilicueta should get some time under his belt.Not a surprise now that Villa is back.I hate how the US is always the last to release its rosters
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I will be posting the incredible line up of tv games coming next Friday later next week, but as a heads up for you Spain fans, ESPN2 will be showing their qualifier against Finland live at 3:45pm on Friday.Yep. I'd much rather have Villa or Negredo up front than Torres. Or Michu. Puyol's off because he's apparently gimpy. But honestly I can't see him making the '14 WC at this point in his career. Azpilicueta should get some time under his belt.Not a surprise now that Villa is back.I hate how the US is always the last to release its rosters
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
This is one of those images my 25 year old self never could have imagined. Great graphic.
http://www.xiquarterly.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/soccer-on-us-tv.jpg
http://www.xiquarterly.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/soccer-on-us-tv.jpg
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