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***Official Soccer Discussion Thread*** (4 Viewers)

'The Gator said:
First text regarding the game tonight; "3-0 to Mexico....u won't have being saved by snow this time"

I replied, "Chicharito es un hijo de puta frijol"
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I hope these guys are as game with the wagering in the return leg as you've been here. Betting on this US team to get a result, let alone a win is, uhh, generous.
 
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'wdcrob said:
'The Gator said:
First text regarding the game tonight; "3-0 to Mexico....u won't have being saved by snow this time"

I replied, "Chicharito es un hijo de puta frijol"
Click to expand...
I hope these guys are as game with the wagering in the return leg as you've been here. Betting on this US team to get a result, let alone a win is, uhh, generous.
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Not like i'm betting GPJ money. Just some food and a few rounds of drinks

 
'NewlyRetired said:
'Moe. said:
'Tremendous Upside said:
The US has never won in Azteca in WCQ. Not sure why trash talking is necessary on the Mexican side
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Orozco-Fiscal is undefeated at Azteca though, so something's gotta give. Clearly they are terrified of him.
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Klinsmann has also never lost to El Tri as player or coach. 3 wins and 3 draws
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Well I'm convinced. 2-1 US. Are the other CONCACAF matches on TV tonight? I'd like to see Honduras get taken down a peg @Panama.
 
'Moe. said:
'NewlyRetired said:
'Moe. said:
'Tremendous Upside said:
The US has never won in Azteca in WCQ. Not sure why trash talking is necessary on the Mexican side
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Orozco-Fiscal is undefeated at Azteca though, so something's gotta give. Clearly they are terrified of him.
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Klinsmann has also never lost to El Tri as player or coach. 3 wins and 3 draws
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Well I'm convinced. 2-1 US. Are the other CONCACAF matches on TV tonight? I'd like to see Honduras get taken down a peg @Panama.
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I will probably watch the CR game before the US starts since the pre game will make me too nervous. BeIN SPORT2014 World Cup Qualifier COSTA RICA-JAMAICA (live) 10 pm.BeIN SPORT en Espanol2014 World Cup Qualifier PANAMA-HONDURAS (live) 10 pm..
 
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From ESPN Insider, keys to the match from Mexico's perspective.

When there is a rivalry as fierce as the one that exists between Mexico and the United States, it sometimes can be difficult to dampen the sentiments involved and keep a clear head capable of rational decision-making.

That's not the case when it comes to Mexico manager Jose Manuel "Chepo" de la Torre, who has expertly dodged question after question designed to stoke the flames of the rivalry. He also has been unmoved by any suggestion that he should be more forthcoming ahead of Tuesday's game against the U.S.

"I'm dry, I'm sullen, I'm direct, I'm frank and some people don't like it," he said in Monday's news conference. "I'm very sorry, I'm here to bring results."

But after only two points from El Tri's first two games in the Hexagonal phase of World Cup qualifying, the reality is that concerns about the rivalry with the United States are secondary to the three points at stake. The former Chivas and Toluca coach will have been busy coming up with a game plan so that El Tri doesn't put in a below-par performance that could have consequences for his long-term future as Mexico's coach.

Here are five keys that would help ensure Chepo get a favorable result.

A good start

It's obvious that every team wants a good start to any game, but with the pressure on El Tri, an early goal or at least a positive attacking start is even more important than usual.

The longer the U.S. can keep the score at 0-0, or even sneak a goal, the more restless the fans will get.

As center back Hector Moreno said after training Monday: "People are coming to see us defeat the United States."

If that isn't happening, home-field advantage could turn into a burden, as it did last in 1997 when a 0-0 draw against the United States ended with the team roundly booed. Then-coach Bora Milutinovic was gone within a month.

Take advantage of the United States' weaknesses

It's no secret that the United States is going to Mexico with a depleted squad. Not only are names such as Tim Howard and Landon Donovan not on the roster, but Edgar Castillo, Timmy Chandler, Steve Cherundolo and others are missing because of injury.

The result is a gaping hole for Mexico to exploit at left back, where Puebla player DaMarcus Beasley probably will be asked to fill in. Because Beasley is not a natural full back and has very little experience playing the position, Chepo will be thinking of ways to exploit the situation.

One possibility is playing Angel Reyna from the start on the right wing, swapping him periodically with Giovani Dos Santos -- leaving Beasley worried about whom he should mark. The speedy Javier Aquino coming off the bench later in the game with a fresh pair of legs also would be a particularly unwelcome sight for an inexperienced left back.

Also, the makeshift U.S. center back partnership of Omar Gonzalez and Clarence Goodson may have done well in the snow against Costa Rica, but Mexico's movement and Dos Santos dropping off striker Chicharito probably will pose a much sterner test.

Conquer Azteca demons (roll eyes times a billion)

For a stadium that boasts one of the proudest home records in world football -- with only one loss in World Cup qualifying -- one home goal in the past three games and a 1-1-1 record is not exactly exemplary.

Perhaps it has nothing to do with the stadium and more with the fact that teams have opted to park the bus, defended with a back four and five in midfield and aimed to frustrate El Tri to quiet the crowd.

Whatever the reason, it has been a long time since Mexico put on a show for the Azteca faithful.

Concentration at set pieces

This isn't a U.S. team that plays long ball, but it is pragmatic enough to know that players such as Geoff Cameron, Gonzalez and Goodson are big threats for a Mexico defense missing Francisco Rodriguez because of suspension.

Honduras' second goal last Friday came from a corner that was badly defended, and coming for crosses and controlling his penalty area aren't starting goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa's strength.

4-2-3-1

Playing Dos Santos in the hole behind Chicharito worked well for Mexico against Honduras and, as we have stated before in this blog, suits Mexico's playing style and current group of players.

However, De la Torre is headstrong and if he feels the best way to exploit a weakened U.S. defense is to employ two out-and-out strikers, then it wouldn't be a massive surprise considering it has been his formation of choice for most of the past six months.
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Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider)

3/26/13, 3:41 PM

Unconfirmed but hearing #usmnt lineup changes are Besler for Goodson and Edu for Jones. Again, unconfirmed, just what I hear from afar

Edu makes some good sense. This would be an awful tough spot for Besler. He has only one cap in a friendly against Canada last year.

 
Prediction: 3-0 Mexico. They will be gunning from the start and I don't think we have the horses to counter effectively. A fit, healthy and in his prime Landycakes would do wonders for that game. He gives the Mexican fits usually.

 
Also I can't beleive I'm moderately excited about seeing DMB again. This is a guy that let the ball go under hid foot, allowing Brazil to score in the Confed Cup. He's had some disasters of games, but holy hell I think he might have been my MOM last game. You never know what that guy is capable of.

 
'The Z Machine said:
Also I can't beleive I'm moderately excited about seeing DMB again. This is a guy that let the ball go under hid foot, allowing Brazil to score in the Confed Cup. He's had some disasters of games, but holy hell I think he might have been my MOM last game. You never know what that guy is capable of.
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His choppy running style was perfect for the conditions and he did play very well. I am hopeful for this make shift D tonight. I fear Guardado's speed is going to give Cam nightmares tonight. .
 
'The Z Machine said:
Also I can't beleive I'm moderately excited about seeing DMB again. This is a guy that let the ball go under hid foot, allowing Brazil to score in the Confed Cup. He's had some disasters of games, but holy hell I think he might have been my MOM last game. You never know what that guy is capable of.
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We remember that game and the nightmare against Costa Rica, but even if we grant that DMB never became the guy we thought he could be in 2002, he's had a lot of good games for the Nats. He often combined will with Landon, which I guess makes sense considering how long they've played together. If recovery speed were everything we'd still have Marvell Wynne in camp, but it's a nice trait to have. In some ways, an older, wiser DMB is a safer bet than Johnson, who still gets caught upfield (as Cameron did on Friday night).
 
'Spartans Rule said:
Plus, the current UEFA system sucks in terms of being equitable. So much depends on your draw.A good example in 2010 was Bosnia-Herzegovina. They were in Spain's group, so they had no chance to win, but did manage to finish 2nd ahead of Turkey and Belgium. Then they went to the playoffs and drew Portugal. Never had a chance.Meanwhile, Slovakia qualified by winning a group that included Slovenia, Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Poland and San Marino.If you remove some of the minnows early on, you'd not only get rid of a lot of pointless matches, but you could shrink the number of groups to maybe 6 and have two teams qualify from each group. Then it wouldn't be so crushing to land in a group with Spain or Germany.
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Hmm, let me sketch this outTo start off we'll go with the rankings at the time of the draw. Originally there were 6 pots (5 pots with 9 teams and the last pot with 8).It should be noted that there are 13 spots. Doing 6 pots with the top 2 in each = 12. What to make of that 13th spot? We'll table that for now.Let's say the the Final Round of qualifying should have 36 teams in it: 6 pots of 6 teams each. The top 18 teams get byes to the final (3rd) round. These 18 teams comprise pots 1, 2, and 3.The next 19 teams gets byes to the 2nd round. They will compete with 8 winners from the first round in 9 groups of 3. The top 2 in each group advance.The bottom 16 teams can go one of two ways. 8 2-leg series. FIFA may not like this as it'll kill off some teams too early. An alternate is to do four 4-team groups with the top 2 finishers advancing.Round 1 (bottom 16 teams, either drawn into 8 2-leg matches with two pots or as instructed below with 4 4-team groups):These teams will be drawn into 4 groups (1 from each Pot). Groups A through D. The top 2 from each advance to the next stage.Each team plays a total of six matches in round 1.Round 1 POT 1 Finland (75), Estonia (79), Cyprus (80), Latvia (83)Round 1 POT 2 Moldova (85), Macedonia (96), Azerbaijan (111), Faroe Islands (112)Round 1 POT 3 Wales (112), Liechtenstein (118), Iceland (121), Kazakhstan (126)Round 1 POT 4 Luxembourg (128), Malta (173), Andorra (203), San Marino (203)---------------------------------------------ROUND 2The 8 surviving teams will join the next 19-ranked teams to form 9 groups of 3. The top 2 finishers in each group will advance to the 3rd (and final) round. These groups will be named Group E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, and MEach team plays a total of 4 games in this round.Round 2 POT 1Switzerland (30), Israel (32), Republic of Ireland (33), Belgium (37), Czech Republic (38), Bosnia and Herzegovina (41), Belarus (42), Ukraine (45), Hungary (47)Round 2 POT 2Bulgaria (48), Romania (53), Georgia (57), Lithuania (58), Albania (59), Scotland (61), Northern Ireland (62), Austria (66), Poland (69)Round 2 POT 3Armenia (70), Round 1 Group A winner, Round 1 Group A runner-up, Round 1 Group B winner, Round 1 Group B runner-up, Round 1 Group C winner, Round 1 Group C runner-up, Round 1 Group D winner, Round 1 Group D runner-up--------------------------------------Round Three (final round). The top 18 teams (with byes) join the 18 teams surviving round 2. They are drawn into 6 groups of 6. There will be 6 pots each containing 6 teams sorted by FIFA ranking.Each team plays a total of 10 games in this round.POT 1 Spain (1), Netherlands (2), Germany (3), England (6), Portugal (7), Italy (8)POT 2 Croatia (9), Norway (12), Greece (13), France (15), Montenegro (17), Russia (18) POT 3 Sweden (19), Denmark (21), Slovenia (22), Turkey (24), Serbia (27), Slovakia (29)POT 46 highest ranked survivors of round 2. POT 56 middle ranked survivors of round 2.POT 66 lowest ranked survivors of round 2.----------------------------------------Hypothetical coming up :) -QG
 
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So let's draw up some groups and we'll look at it from a Bosnian perspective. We'll ignore the 13th spot for now (of course we shouldn't but oh well).

Bosnia starts up in round 2.

I arbitrarily have advanced Finland, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, Macedonia, Wales, Iceland from the first round.

Bosnia gets drawn into a group with Scotland and Armenia. They breeze through and make the final round.

Arbitrarily these 18 make it (for the heck of it i'll have a couple mild upsets):

Switzerland, Israel, Ireland, Belgium, Czech, Bosnia--------Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia-------Albania, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland, Armenia, and Iceland. (Sorry Finland Scotland, Wales, et al)

Those teams comprise pots 4, 5, and 6 as they are broken up. Note that Poland is in pot 6 with this realistic scenario.

I will now draw groups for the heck of it. Top 2 qualify. Perhaps the 2 best 3rd-place teams playoff for spot 13.

Group A

Italy,France,Slovakia,Belgium,Hungary,Poland

Group B

Netherlands,Croatia,Turkey,Bosnia,Romania,Austria

Group C

Spain,Russia,Slovenia,Ireland,Belarus,Armenia

Group D

Germany,Montenegro,Sweden,Switzerland,Bulgaria,Northern Ireland

Group E

Portugal,Greece,Serbia,Israel,Georgia,Albania

Group F

England,Norway,Denmark,Czech,Ukraine,Iceland

Is this really any fairer for a Bosnia, never mind a Poland?

While there are the minnow matches in Europe that fact is that the quality of national sides in Europe can change dramatically from cycle to cycle. Adding that extra level doesn't seem quite right.

Even if you did something more targeted, like say make 6 groups of 7 teams (which is more games btw) and just eliminated 11 teams via 2-match legs that means 31 byes and the other 22 play. That would be:

Albania (59), Scotland (61), Northern Ireland (62), Austria (66), Poland (69), Armenia (70), Finland (75), Estonia (79), Cyprus (80), Latvia (83), Moldova (85)

versus

Macedonia (96),Azerbaijan (111),Faroe Islands (112),Wales (112),Liechtenstein (118),Iceland (121),Kazakhstan (126),Luxembourg (128),Malta (173),Andorra (203),San Marino (203)

If you've seen how Iceland is doing it hardly seems fair to them to have them, say, play Poland in a 2-leg playoff just to make the main draw.

-QG

 
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'NewlyRetired said:
Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider)

3/26/13, 3:41 PM

Unconfirmed but hearing #usmnt lineup changes are Besler for Goodson and Edu for Jones. Again, unconfirmed, just what I hear from afar

Edu makes some good sense. This would be an awful tough spot for Besler. He has only one cap in a friendly against Canada last year.
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In some ways this is a great spot for baptism-by-fire - if we lose, it was expected, but if we win or tie, and he plays well - great confidence boost.
 
'Sinn Fein said:
'NewlyRetired said:
Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider)

3/26/13, 3:41 PM

Unconfirmed but hearing #usmnt lineup changes are Besler for Goodson and Edu for Jones. Again, unconfirmed, just what I hear from afar

Edu makes some good sense. This would be an awful tough spot for Besler. He has only one cap in a friendly against Canada last year.
Click to expand...
In some ways this is a great spot for baptism-by-fire - if we lose, it was expected, but if we win or tie, and he plays well - great confidence boost.
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I expect we're going to get spanked tonight, but there's no reason not to play loose. It's an undermanned squad away to a desperate team in a venue they've never won before in WCQ. What's to lose?
 
Very interesting QG, nice work.

At work right now so I don't have time to fully analyze it, but it definitely doesn't look as pretty as I was hoping.

I was thinking mostly in terms of the very large middle tier in Europe, but yeah, you do kind of shaft the lower-middle tier when you try to filter the field down. There's only a handful of truly hopeless sides.

 
'Spartans Rule said:
Very interesting QG, nice work. At work right now so I don't have time to fully analyze it, but it definitely doesn't look as pretty as I was hoping.I was thinking mostly in terms of the very large middle tier in Europe, but yeah, you do kind of shaft the lower-middle tier when you try to filter the field down. There's only a handful of truly hopeless sides.
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The European minnows make a lot of money (relatively speaking) on the home qualifiers. I don't know about UEFA's constitution or decision making process but there would probably be a large bloc of small nations opposed to any change to the status quo.
 
Anyone else mute the tv when our keeper kicks the ball from a goal kick during these messico games?

 
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Grant Wahl (@GrantWahl)

3/26/13, 7:18 PM

USSF reiterates that Goodson or Orozco Fiscal could wear No. 21 tonight.

==================

Guess thats why Besler is being rumored. Sounds like Goodson may be facing a late fitness test.

 
Chile with a big 3 points at home over Uruguay.

South America is shaping up for 3 teams that will qualify fairly easily (Argie, Colombia and Ecuador), and then have 4 teams fighting for the 4th spot and the 5th spot(playoff against Asia).

Uruguay has dropped to 5th place now and if Venezuela hold the lead against Colombia, they will drop to 6th. Even worse the team in 7th(Peru) is just two points behind Uruguay and has a game in hand.

Should be an awesome ending to qualifying in South America.

 
Grant Wahl (@GrantWahl)

3/26/13, 9:26 PM

Mexico lineup: Ochoa; Meza, Reyes, Moreno, Torres Nilo; Zavala, Salcido; Aquino, Dos Santos, Guardado; Hernández (via @espnsutcliffe)

 
2-0 Mexico.

Chicharito within 10 minutes, US gets a nice foothold late in the first half and early second half but gets caught sleeping on a counter midway through the second half and never gets back into it. Kyle Beckerman subs in, and the listless play from the US midfield causes me to fall asleep during the 75th minute. :grad:

 
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