The dynamics of the whole thing are fascinating.
Platini stupidly/corruptly being in favor of Qatar is incidental at this point - the corruption investigations really are just part of the larger dynamics at play. (Part of me also wonders if Blatter not supporting Qatar was as much about plausible deniability as anything else). Then again for Platini maybe it's about always being on the opposite side of Blatter and if Blatter was pro-Qatar than Platini would have had red white and blue underoos on.
UEFA's bigger beef is a system whereby Montserrat and Germany have the same voting strength. And that the situation is proving to put them on the wrong side of too many votes. And at the end of the day they know who really drives the train.
For the countries in the minnow confederations, with UEFA upping the ante, they now have to decide if Sepp is really the hill they want to die on (I suspect that most of them really don't care and will stay with the crook that brought them). I do think the possilbility of UEFA blowing it all up though is more than a little real, taking the lions share of the top 15 countries with them.
The other confeds end up with a choice, and it's not necessarily a pleasant one.
The new alignment may have the new UEFIFA pluck the top CONCACAF sides (I think the US would have no issue going with them and Canada probably too). As for Mexico - that depends on what CONMEBOL decides. While there are implications about the Copa bidding CONMEBOL w/o the bulk of UEFA teams stands to lose a lot. Whereas UEFA (minus Eastern bloc) plus CONMEBOL plus US and Mexico (okay Canada too) keeps the largest share of money there for them.
A reflective African or Asian country will have to think about this and gauge if the UEFA threat is real. This is where the chance comes in for Sepp to lose. Though I still think it's a long shot.
The winner needs, what, like 105 votes. If Bin Haman Ali is going to get there, I think ultimately the path is through Asia (after all he is an Asian confed candidate) and South America (if they legitimately think UEFA is serious about leaving).
Figure about 45 votes from UEFA. Maybe 5 from CONCACAF (if say the likes of Puerto Rico were to vote with big brother). If you can get say 7 from CONMEBOL that's 52. Still a very tough hill to climb - it depends on how cohesive CAF is - if nothing at all can be gotten out of their Bin Haman Ali is sunk.
Soccer World War!!!!!!
-QG