These are not official
@shader rankings, but have fun with them nonetheless:
Mid-season Rank -- Pre-season Rank -- Current Skybet Odds
1 -- 6 -- 8/11 Chelsea -- The Leicester City of 2016/17, fairy tale season from a mid-table squad. What I got wrong: I ranked them 6th primarily because I saw the back line as a bigly liability: Cahill-Terry-Ivanovic combo was slow and old. Apparently Conte agreed, and brought in David Luiz, and eventually moved to a back 3. Two things stand out from that - Improved the shape and pace of the back-line, but more importantly, Conte showed he is a better manager than Pep or Jose in terms of being able to come to a new squad and instill his philosophy. What they need: depth in the back line. I don't know how Zouma is doing, but if Luiz or Azpilicueta went down with an injury, I think they could be in a spot of trouble.
2 -- 2 -- 12/1 Tottenham -- The Best Value squad of 2016/17 - if you had to shop at the discount store. In the pre-season ranking, I noted that Spurs were relatively injury free last season. That has not been the case this year, with Lloris, Alderweireld, Rose, Dembele, Lamela, and Kane all missing time due to injury and/or suspension. But, despite that, Spurs have scored more, and conceded fewer than at this point last season. Spurs are probably the 2nd most complete squad in the league - better than Chelsea defensively, but lagging behind on the attacking end. Pochettino is having another fine season, despite crashing out of Champions League. Spurs are still evolving tactically - last season they played 37 matches in a 4231, this season they have played a variety of formations, including a variation of Chelsea's 343, which seems to put their best XI on the pitch. What they need: Spurs are unlikely to add in January - too expensive. But, realistically, they still need depth - particularly to back up Wanyama and/or Dier, if they stick with the 343. Spurs are still involved in Europa - which they punted last season to
concentrate on the leaguetm - that could be a distraction.
3 -- 5 -- 4/1 Liverpool -- Best team with no defense. Klopp has done a good job installing his pressing and attacking style. But they might need to raid the South Coast again to help shore up the defense. Schedule works in their favor - they alternate "tough" and "easy" matches, which should protect them from a bad run of form. Liverpool do not play any of the top-6 after March 18 - so they should be sprinting towards the finish line. Pool also have a decent chance at silverware - Semi-finals of League Cup against Soton, Final will be against Man United. It remains to be seen how they will approach the FA Cup. A real dark horse.
4 -- 1 -- 16/1 Manchester United -- Its not for a lack of money. What I got wrong: I assumed Jose could manage. I still like the players they bought - hard not to. But I had anticipated that Mourinho would have them playing better sooner. I am still not sure I understand their tactics - but it should not be much harder than get the ball to the wings, cross to Zlatan, and score. Jose's reputation has taken a hit though...Right now, I would say Chelsea and Spurs are much stronger defensively, and Liverpool are stronger attacking, but United will makes things tough on anyone they play. Interesting factoid - on December 4, United were in 6th place; they have won 6 matches in a row since then; they are still in 6th place. 6-6-6 Red devils
5 -- 3 -- 13/2 Manchester City -- Most square pegs in round holes. Once considered unbeatable - now:
On paper - this is a very good squad. But, like Jose, Pep is struggling to adapt his tactics to his squad. Two key acquisitions: Bravo and Stones have been nothing short of a hot-mess. Pep continues to insist on playing out of the defense, despite having no players capable of playing out of the defense. Aguero and DeBruyne should be enough by themselves to keep City in the race for top-4. Not sure Jesus himself can keep them in a title race though.
6 -- 4 -- 12/1 Arsenal -- Dead man walking. This is almost assuredly Wenger's last year. Sanchez looks like he is ready to walk, Ozil probably not far behind. Maybe Wenger will surprise with a January purchase, but this squad seems to lack the nebulous "steel" needed for a title run. Gunners next 3 league matches: at Swans, home to Burnley and Watford before traveling to Chelsea. That should give them a good false sense of security heading into the Chelsea match.
Despite what you might read elsewhere, the title race is over. I know everyone wants to hype a 6-team race to the finish, but I just don't see that happening. Chelsea are sitting on a 5 point lead, which by itself is not insurmountable, but they are left with only 4 matches against the top-6, and its hard to see them dropping many points against the bottom-14. And, while Chelsea could drop points against the top-6, all those teams also play each other - which should keep everyone pretty close to even in the standings. Chelsea and Liverpool are the only 2 squads with no European football, though Arsenal likely only have 2 matches left.
Key matches remaining
Week 21 - Man United v. Liverpool
Week 22 - Man City v. Spurs
Week 23 - Liverpool v. Chelsea
Week 24 - Chelsea v. Arsenal
Week 25 - Liverpool v. Spurs
Week 26 - Man City v. Man United
Week 27 - Liverpool v. Arsenal
Week 28 - None
Week 29 - Man City v. Liverpool
Week 30 - Arsenal v. Man City
Week 31 - Chelsea v. Man City
Week 32 - None
Week 33 - Man United v. Chelsea
Week 34 - None
Week 35 - Spurs v. Arsenal
Week 36 - Arsenal v. Man United
Week 37 - Spurs v. Man United
Week 38 - None
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