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Nice, that's amazing given my WR/TE production. Hopefully this means my unique score will rise.Dude, I found your team and I'll go out on a limb and say you're a lock. Highly unlikely the cut reaches your current score. You're currently in the top 3500, lots of teams need to jump quite a bit to put you at risk."so you're saying there's a chance"
Sorry, but no. I maintain the scoring database for TFS, which is how I check this stuff out. When I figure things out tho, I post in here and you can also see where we think the scoring will settle at the site.
equally tight with Leon Washington and Jay feely, but I know I am dead short of 120 yardsand a TD from Washington
5.8 total points from Randy, Mason, and Calvin. Colston on bye. Not looking to good right now. Could the cut be as low as 100 pts this week?
I hear ya... 12 zero's this week on my roster & I'll be comfortably sliding by with 126.4 + everything from Bess & Leon W.I front loaded byes for my key players & most are through.Top 2 QBs now past byesTop 2 RBsTop 2 WRsTop TETop DEFWeek 7 could still be a sticky bye week, but most of my salary cap is now playing every week.142.5 with Leon Washington going tomorrow despite getting zero's from 11 players. On to next week with a large number of my byes out of the way.
Very curious to see how this week turned out for the A.Rodgers owners (& "0" QB rosters) this week.I'm getting 753, but I'm not 100% sure I have all the "0" QB's in my search. If you add on Hasselbeck to the mixIm about to verify that doug. I have a pretty easy/explicit way to check that....and I am one of the teams without a QB. This gives me (temporary) HOPE!
crossesfingers
the number jumps to 1069. Definitely a better week than most to be sporting a zero at QB, and it will still take a toll on the Rodgers owners. 738/1069 or 523/753 teams in this predicament own Rodgers.
. Woulda had 135.2 plus more.
Thanks...looks like my 113.3 has a better chance at surviving than I though. BTW, Dan Carpenter scores 30 points in one run....wow.
The lognormal may not be a great approximation of FF scoring at the extremes, but I'm not sure that's out of line. Play that game 1000 times and some real weird stuff would happen.
Still may favorite MNF story, 20 points down with only a kicker going, and Boniol connects on NFL record 7 FG's! Weird things do happen.
The current projection on TFS is the current cutoff plus Dodds projections for tonights game plugged in, CTR is usually within a point or two at most.
A more scientific method is Drinen's sim, which takes a distribution of Dodds' projection. His 50th percentile and my estimate are usually pretty close. If you are above his 100th percentile, you can breathe easy as it would be extremely unusual to have the score top that. Today, 120 is your clear point, but the scoring looks to be fairly stable below 112 with 80% of the sims at that level or lower. Unfortunately, I'm not smart enough to figure out how to do that trick...yet
No one can predict the future. If a couple highly owned players by those near the bottom blows up and puts up 40 points each, it could change things. But given that Miami and the Jets are not exactly teams people loaded up on and that over 90% of the scoring is in the books, the number will be really close. There is probably about in 80% chance that the final result will be with in +/-2 of the projection.
Rodgers owners in general are doing quite well, with 2141 currently in the clear and 583 out. Of the 775 teams with guaranteed "0" at QB this week (I also added the few teams that had Anderson and McCown since they were below 1 point), 431 are currently in, compared to 334 who are not. Looks like the killer QB week was such a great equalizer that it was not a tremendous factor. I'm pretty glad I have basically all my studs done with their byes now (except Witten), that should bode well going forward considering my injury issues.Very curious to see how this week turned out for the A.Rodgers owners (& "0" QB rosters) this week.I'm getting 753, but I'm not 100% sure I have all the "0" QB's in my search. If you add on Hasselbeck to the mixIm about to verify that doug. I have a pretty easy/explicit way to check that....and I am one of the teams without a QB. This gives me (temporary) HOPE!
Rodgers alone at QB is rough? Nearly 800 people had no QB this week. Maybe that ended up lower as McNabb and Hasselbeck returned. You should be OK with Grant and Bradshaw at RB. Grant is solid 12 points every week.
Matt Hasselbeck $17 30.25 6.05 0.00 0.00 Mark Sanchez $9 19.20 13.95 26.55 6.30 Byron Leftwich $4 20.10 30.80 0.40 0.00 Ryan Grant $24 13.20 14.30 10.90 12.10 Ray Rice $21 13.00 10.70 15.50 17.70 Willie Parker $16 2.90 5.50 19.90 0.00 Ahmad Bradshaw $8 8.60 5.50 10.40 6.40 LeSean McCoy $7 5.20 7.50 15.80 0.00 Michael Bush $6 12.40 5.70 6.00 1.90 Marques Colston $28 12.00 29.80 10.70 5.30 DeSean Jackson $24 6.20 21.60 26.90 0.00 Antonio Bryant $23 4.90 0.00 1.60 14.40 Derrick Mason $9 8.70 6.10 22.80 21.80 Matt Jones $5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Hakeem Nicks $4 3.80 0.00 0.00 12.40 Deon Butler $2 1.70 2.50 1.80 0.00 Dallas Clark $18 9.90 34.80 23.40 20.00 Dustin Keller $12 15.40 12.70 5.40 7.60 Chris Baker $1 2.20 1.60 13.20 0.00 Kris Brown $3 1.00 11.00 6.00 10.00 Josh Scobee $2 8.00 6.00 10.00 17.00 New York Jets $4 6.00 2.00 10.00 2.00 Houston Texans $2 8.00 5.00 2.00 16.00 New Orleans Saints $1 7.00 16.00 8.00 24.00
Right now I have DWill and Edge as two of my RB's that have put up points. Grant, Colston and Mason, getting nothing this week was rough, but Matty Ice and Roddy White carried me. Grant and Colston were a given but Mason has great the last two weeks with over 20. Here's a question. Who are you every week producers? Who on your squads has counted in the scoring each and every week? Mine are Dallas Clark (not surprising with only Finley there) and Harvinjoffer said:i had 1 out of 7 WRs score anything
Thought I was out this week. Schaub and special teams to the rescue.
Excluding bye weeks....Rivers, Longwell, D. Williams, Grant and Moss.....Moss and Williams have had some off weeks, so that is an indication that my secondary players suck. The only cheap player I really think I struck gold with is Hakeem Nicks. Of course, E. James 5.8 points may just save my butt this week, so that would make him worth it. But Betts, Davis, Leinart, Meachem, and Baker do not look like they are going to help me much. I wish I had Harvin. I think I did until the last week....On a side note, my flex points have come from RB every week. My WR core is not pulling its weight.
Chad Ochocinco scored every week for me except week 1 when guys like Crayton blew up for me. Same with Nate Burleson, who scored for me every week except week 2. Brent Celek has scored every week for me besides his bye.
Ray Rice and Drew Brees have scored for me every week.Chad Ochocinco and Jeremy Shocky have scored for me every week except one.Here's a question. Who are you every week producers? Who on your squads has counted in the scoring each and every week? Mine are Dallas Clark (not surprising with only Finley there) and Harvinjoffer said:i had 1 out of 7 WRs score anything
Harvin has scored 4 out of the 5 weeks for me, but outside of that, I've only had the Buf D not score for me at least one week.I've lost Garrard and L. Robinson, but still feel pretty strong, I think my toughest week will be week 7, when Ray Rice and James are out and I have D.Williams, F.Jones, Parker for RB... Mason is off that week also, leaving me with only 5 WR's...
I would've been ok with Ryan, but Hass carried me in wk 1, so I was already a fan.
