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For me excluding bye weeks here are the core guys who have scored every week for me.GrantV. JacksonN. BurlesonNext Celek has only failed me one week but thats the week Finley blew up.
Says you have a 100% chance of advancing
Thanks. Very little RB support. Huge weeks from Hasselbeck/Schaub. That helped!
I gotta quit doing research on stuff like this right after I get up in the morning. I keep forgetting that the last thing I do after SNF is leaving the data populated with the MNF projected stats.Here's the real "as-is" condition heading into tonight's game. Currently 471/775 teams are listed as "in" with a guaranteed zero at QB, and 2124/2724 of Rodgers owners are listed as "in". Obviously, some of the Rodgers owners still have some key players left (possibly their backup QB), as it looks like the projection has a few more getting in than the current situation. It looks like the opposite is true if the guaranteed QB zeros, as the 471 that are in now dwindle to 431 with the projections. Looks like there is a penalty for not having a QB at all, as there are possibly a few teams of similar construction that end up benefiting from finally getting their QB score. Just a thought, no analysis on how these teams are actually constructed...
No problem, I'm at 97.6% chance to advance, I'll be sweating the game tonight. I'm at 106 and the projected cutoff is 110 something. I need some points from Keller!
I knew week 5 was my week to be very nervous because of Colston, VJAX, A.Rogers bye. But i thought Flacco/W.Parker/DMason would save my hide. They didn't and now I need Leon Johnson to go fro 90 yds, 8 receptions or a TD wouldnt hurt to hold on to this thing. I am at 97 with my lowest flex wiht 5 pts. Figure Leon needs about 19 pts. Also have feely but would need over 13 as R.Longwell already booked 10.QuizGuy66 said:Man, so my week one bomb entry still would be going if not for that egg at the start. Woulda had 135.2 plus more.Even worse, the theoretical optimal entry that I eschewed would still be alive and north of 150 this week. *sigh*
Good luck to the folks sweating out the Turk for real this week
I'm at 105.6 now at halftime. But Clowney (WooHoo) is now being used and Washington is 8 yds away from adding to my score as well. It's going to be TIGHT.
Does TFS update in 15 minute intervals? as an owner of Leon and Jay Feely, and at 99 pts at half, I am on edge
I think the scoring updates every 10 minutes, but it has some delay in the stats at that time. I am running my cutoff update stats manually, which may have some scores that you aren't seeing right now.One VERY important note if you are near the cut is that the stat service we use isn't a perfect match to the FBG stats, although I try to adjust what I can. I fix the negative yard issue we know we have and make sure the DEF scores match, which are fairly easy to check. There may be a few minor 1-2 yard adjustments across the rest of the players that are still not showing up, which is why I can't confidently nail the exact cut with my scoring. Since a lot of teams near the cut tend to have a common score though, I can usually get to within .05, since a shift one way or the other usually will include several teams.BTW, the cut as of halftime is just below 108...
Every 10 minutes, it gets the nfl stats from the stat service at 8,18,28,38, etc.. It updates the scores for this contest 1 minute later.
It was in the pre-mon night game sim a page up.
I think you are still pretty safe. Cut is just inching along even with all the scores...
saved by Fasano
you are correct sir, but unfortunately I think you just missed the good side of the line. on a preliminary stat cut (still need to verify my had scoring), the cut is showing......110.75I will recheck that total as it is very rough at this time and I may have some computational errors on the late activity.
surv # #prob teams surv pct--------------------------100% 81 81 100.090--99 4005 3798 94.880--89 1237 1063 85.970--79 675 522 77.360--69 413 276 66.850--59 268 150 56.040--49 224 109 48.730--39 142 67 47.220--29 107 31 29.010--19 74 14 18.9 0-- 9 48 9 18.8+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| roster_size | number | alive | pct_alive |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| 20 | 5181 | 1841 | 0.3553 || 21 | 2032 | 810 | 0.3986 || 22 | 1445 | 756 | 0.5232 || 23 | 1291 | 689 | 0.5337 || 24 | 3328 | 2021 | 0.6073 || TOTAL | 13277 | 6117 | 0.4607 |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+Great job on your analysis! I am thankful to all those people without QB's....helped to slide by in front of about 100 people. So glad to have Rivers and Rodgers and Coleson back this week. Hopefully next week will not be so close.
Does this settle the question as to the best roster size?
Week 5 elimination rates20 20.30%21 21.44%22 15.06%23 13.33%24 9.98%
Not unless the goal was to make it to week 6
Yeah, that's a good point. But 65% of entrants with 20 players have already eliminated themselves. I'm trying to think of this in general terms... as in, what gives me the best chance to win vs. what is the winning entry. I guess you're right though and that won't be answered until later.
I don't completely buy into the theory the more the merrier in the extreme sense. At some point you need to spend some money on getting some top studs. But it is pretty convincing that the optimal rooster is somewhere above 24.
This the correct way to make your decision. The 20 roster guys have all been quiet lately in hopes that they will be vindicated if a 20-roster wins. If the current trend continues, the survival rates of each size when we get to the end will look something like this.20 0.59%21 0.89%22 2.36%23 2.54%24 4.04%So a random 24 is almost 8x more likely to advance to the final 250 than a random 20.
I think I saw that apalmer was eliminated, so I may be on my own defending the 20-teamers - but the argument was, and still is, that the 20-teamers were playing to have the best roster for the final three weeks of the season - understanding that they took the biggest risk of being eliminated early. These results are not surprising, nor do they validate either argument. Nobody has ever disputed that "random" teams with 24 players have a better chance at survival than "random" teams with 20 players. The trade off was a lower chance of survival v. a higher chance of success if you made it through.For the record, I have a 24-man roster - but that was primarily so that I would last longer into the contest. If I had the time, energy, foresight and balls I would have tried to go with a 20-man roster - improving at various positions - knowing that I had next to 0 margin for error (and therein lies the difference in the two philosophies - one gambling with no margin for error, and one building in a safety net).
Well, the initial goal is to get to the final 250. If the elimination rates continue through the bye weeks (and there's no reason to think they won't), the rate for the 24 player teams will be about 20% and the rate for 20 player teams will be about 5% after week 10.
Exactly. And I say that as a 24 team roster entry. Winning is what matters, not looking good during the season. Of course, you do have to get to the playoffs in order to win.....
Well that is what my wife tells me, but she uses a different term for rooster.
