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*** Official Super Bowl LI Thread - Falcons vs Patriots *** (1 Viewer)

Sagarin has the AFC with 3 of the 5 top teams, but only 5 of the top 15, this year. 

The AFC is excellent at the top, but doesn't run quite as deep as the NFC. 
Yeah, doesn't change what I said. The link didn't really work for me, but assuming the other top AFC teams were the Steelers (young defense, Ben's road woes) and Chiefs (A. Smith), you don't see them as flawed?

Not taking anything away from the Pats. You can only play who you play.

 
The last time the Falcons were in the Superbowl in 1999, they faced a strong Bronco team lead by John Elway. If I remember correctly the Falcons were 7 point dogs. Elway managed the game perfectly and the Broncos won the game 34-19.

Sorry Falcon fans, I see a very similar result this time around.
This Falcons team is better than that Falcons team. That team was lucky to beat Minnesota after Gary Andersen missed his first fg in two years and was just happy to be in the super bowl. Combine that with our team leader getting caught with a hooker the night before the game, and it was a recipe for disaster. 

This team is much better with much stronger leadership. It's really not comparable. I'm not guaranteeing we win or anything like that, I know it's still the Patriots. I'm just saying the two Falcons teams are completely different. 

 
From a licensed apparel business standpoint, this will be one of the worst Conf Champ/SB Champ combos in history.  Neither of the two conference champ teams are meaningful...ATL fanbase is relatively small and the NE fanbase doesn't care enough to buy anything anymore.  The only hope is a bunch of people jump on the ATL bandwagon if they win the SB for the first time.

 
From a licensed apparel business standpoint, this will be one of the worst Conf Champ/SB Champ combos in history.  Neither of the two conference champ teams are meaningful...ATL fanbase is relatively small and the NE fanbase doesn't care enough to buy anything anymore.  The only hope is a bunch of people jump on the ATL bandwagon if they win the SB for the first time.
This is what you think about as a football fan?

 
Dan Quinn has been involved in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls.
Yeah, the quality of Atlanta's coaching worries me more than any of their weapons. Should be a great game but as of right now laying the 3 points seems like a really good bet. Seeing Goodell having to hand over the trophy to a drunk Bob Kraft with Belichick and Brady staring him down would be priceless. 

 
Funny how the Steelers and Packers were so similar yesterday. Both with really weak pass defense vs teams that can throw the ball.

In the SB, I expect the defensive game plan for the Patriots will be similar vs the Falcons.

Plug the running lanes, double the top WR (J.Jones) and make ATL go elsewhere with the ball.

I expect to see lots of Sanu, Gabriel, and Freeman (in the passing game). 

Patriots (Belichick / Brady era) have a way of making every SB close. Win or loss, all 6 were one score games. I don't expect this one to be any different.

NE 37 / ATL 33

 
This is what you think about as a football fan?
He works for a major apparel manufacturer and has always provided cool insight into that side of things. Not sure why you are getting butthurt about something like that. 

 
Outcomes of games with BB coached teams vs. teams that scored 500+ points.

2013 W DEN 34-31 (DEN scored 7 points below their average total)
2013 L @ DEN 16-26 (DEN scored 12 points below their average total)
2009 L @ NOS 17-38 (NOS scored 6 points above their average total)
2004 W IND 27-24 (IND scored 10 points below their average total)
2004 W IND 20-3 (IND scored 31 points below their average total)
2001 L STL 17-24 (STL scored 9 points below their average total)
2001 W STL 20-17 (STL scored 16 points below their average total)
1998 L NYJ @ DEN 10-23 (DEN scored 9 points below their average total)

Overall 4-4 record, with an average score of 20-23. IMO, the most relevant point here is that the 500+ scoring teams averaged 11 ppg less than their regular scoring average.

The Falcons are averaging 34 ppg and have scored 30+ in 13 of 18 games (40+ in 6 games).

 
He works for a major apparel manufacturer and has always provided cool insight into that side of things. Not sure why you are getting butthurt about something like that. 
Not butthurt ... I just found it to be strange.

Not all of us are privy to the careers of our fellow footballguys.

Had he prefaced his comment with "as an employee of a major apparel mfg..." it would have made total sense.

 
The Patriots have faced ZERO Qbs in the top 10 QBR all year, and some of the very worst in the 2nd half of the season.  That #1 scoring defense ranking is a fraud. 
Wait . . . wasn't this the propaganda that was being distributed to make the Steelers look like they would win?
I am no way saying that ATL and Ryan are not a formidable opponent, but what are the Patriots supposed to do. They have to play the teams on their schedule.

 
Had he prefaced his comment with "as an employee of a major apparel mfg..." it would have made total sense.


From a licensed apparel business standpoint, this will be one of the worst Conf Champ/SB Champ combos in history.  Neither of the two conference champ teams are meaningful...ATL fanbase is relatively small and the NE fanbase doesn't care enough to buy anything anymore.  The only hope is a bunch of people jump on the ATL bandwagon if they win the SB for the first time.

 
Wait . . . wasn't this the propaganda that was being distributed to make the Steelers look like they would win?
I am no way saying that ATL and Ryan are not a formidable opponent, but what are the Patriots supposed to do. They have to play the teams on their schedule.
It really bothers me that Athletic Director Bill Belichik continues to schedule Iowa State, Middle Tennessee State and UMaine for the Pats out-of-conference games...

 
To repeat, these are just things I am throwing out there. They are not meant to be an "A-HA" moment as proof that one team or the other will win.

Matt Ryan over his career vs. Top 3 defenses in points allowed:

5-9 record
20 PF - 26 PA avg final score
-5 ppg vs, avg points scored in other games that season
25 TD with 15 INT
91.2 passer rating
 

 
Biggest factor for me is how much better the Falcons defense has gotten as the season progressed even without (arguably) their best player in Desmond Trufant. Beasley is a completely different player, and rookies Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, DeVondre Campbell, and Brian Poole all stopped being rookies weeks ago. 

Youll look at our total defense ranking and it won't look great, but the improvement week to week has been immense. 
It really is amazing the transformation of that defense this year.  

Looking back, getting Alex Mack also huge.  I was all in on Falcons in FF because of that, but the OL has exceeded even my expectations. 

 
Wait . . . wasn't this the propaganda that was being distributed to make the Steelers look like they would win?
I am no way saying that ATL and Ryan are not a formidable opponent, but what are the Patriots supposed to do. They have to play the teams on their schedule.
I don't think many people gave the Steelers much of a chance, I certainly didn't. The Falcons are much better and it's not close. The patriots defense isn't much more than average and the stats are deceiving. Don't know why you are arguing about this, it's not a secret.

 
I don't think many people gave the Steelers much of a chance, I certainly didn't. The Falcons are much better and it's not close. The patriots defense isn't much more than average and the stats are deceiving. Don't know why you are arguing about this, it's not a secret.
Hogwash.

Steelers +6 was seen as a slam dunk bet by many.

Saying NOW that the Falcons are much better and it's not close is classic hindsight is 20/20 commentary.

 
Hogwash.

Steelers +6 was seen as a slam dunk bet by many.

Saying NOW that the Falcons are much better and it's not close is classic hindsight is 20/20 commentary.
Well you're wrong. Pretty much 99% of people would say the Falcons are way better. If you think the patriots are going in and blowing them away you're in for a rude surprise.

The Steelers problem going in is they don't pressure the qb and they are very limited with only one receiving threat. You had to know BB would shut down Brown and it would be tough going.

 
I'm never going to claim Atlanta has the best fans in the league, but the city has been electric recently cheering for this team. 
You win the SB and they will come out of the wood work and become fans. The franchise has been a joke for most of it's existence. They really need this win. Matt Ryan really needs this win.

 
Well you're wrong. Pretty much 99% of people would say the Falcons are way better. If you think the patriots are going in and blowing them away you're in for a rude surprise.

The Steelers problem going in is they don't pressure the qb and they are very limited with only one receiving threat. You had to know BB would shut down Brown and it would be tough going.
Lol. That's my point. It's easy to say all this NOW vs. prior to the game. 

NE "blowing out the Steelers" was not a popular narrative PRIOR to yesterday. No way.

And no, I don't think NE is blowing away ATL.

 
ATL 34

NE 31 
Interesting spread. Not because that is the spread but because the final score in every SB they have been in in the Belicheck era has been 4 or less. As much as they have dominated getting there, that last game has always been a tight game. ATL barring mistakes turning it over, this one should be close. I don't think ATL can blow them out because when needing to move down the field fast, NE has always been able to do it.

 
From a licensed apparel business standpoint, this will be one of the worst Conf Champ/SB Champ combos in history.  Neither of the two conference champ teams are meaningful...ATL fanbase is relatively small and the NE fanbase doesn't care enough to buy anything anymore.  The only hope is a bunch of people jump on the ATL bandwagon if they win the SB for the first time.
from an ownership standpoint, the extra revenue gained by getting to the SB should help fund that new stadium.

(guess this comment makes me the owner ... or part of the stadium construction crew?)

 
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 The patriots defense isn't much more than average and the stats are deceiving. Don't know why you are arguing about this, it's not a secret.
The patriots allowed the fewest points of any defense in the NFL this year, by a good margin (which is the true measure of a "bend don't break" defensive style like the one schemed by Belichick and Patricia). They allowed 156 points fewer than Atlanta who had the 2nd worst mark in the NFC and among the worst in the entire NFL.  New England's weighted DVOA places them 11th in the NFL in Football Outsider's defensive efficiency (with recency bias included).

Meanwhile, Atlanta comes in at 22nd best in weighted DVOA, significantly worse than the Steelers 7th best unit. Interestingly enough, they share similar weaknesses (secondary) and strengths (solid pass rush). Thankfully the Patriots offense was able to absorb that rush to give Brady time to pick apart that weak secondary. This seems to indicate they will have as much, if not a bigger issue slowing what some metrics grade as the NFL's best offense (and certainly at least the second best).  

Asserting New England's defense is "average" and saying that it's not up for discussion is either misguided understanding of the situation, or willful ignorance... perhaps due to bias. Either way, it's simply wrong. 

 
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from an ownership standpoint, the extra revenue gained by getting to the SB should help fund that new stadium.

(guess this comment makes me the owner ... or part of the stadium construction crew?)
Naw, it just makes you someone unable to admit they were wrong, and unwilling to let it go despite being proven so.  :thumbup:

 
RE:  Stats of QBs vs the NFL top scoring defense and success rates of top offenses vs top defenses, etc.  

It seems a grain of salt may applicable here.  And I think that is what G. Jefferson Airplane was talking about in his post above.  

This year the Pats defense allowed:

Carson Palmer - 21 pts (271 yards and 2 TDs)

Ryan Tannehill - 24 pts (387 yards and 2 TDs)

Brock Osweiller - 16 pts (196 and 0 TD)

Tyrod Taylor - 16 pts (246 yards and 1 TD)

Charlie Whitehurst/Kody Kessler - 13 pts (244 and 2 TDs)

Andy Dalton - 17 pts (254 and 1 TD)

Landry Jones (Big Ben didn't play in the first meeting with Pitt) 16 pts (281 and 1 TD)

Tyrod Taylor - 25 pts (183 and 0 TD; 1 Rush TD)

Russell Wilson - 31 pts (348 and 3 TDs)

Colin Kaepernick - 17 pts (206 and 2 TDs)

Ryan Fitzpatrick - 17 pts (269 and 2 TDs)

Jared Goff - 10 pts (161 and 1 TD)

Joe Flacco - 23 pts (324 and 2 TDs)

Trevor Siemian - 3 pts (282 and 0 TD)

Ryan Fitzpatrick - 3 pts (136 and 0 TD)

Matt Moore - 14 pts (205 and 2 TD) - Tannehill was out this game.  

Then Osweiller again in the playoffs where he had similar stats as he did in week 3, both games in NE.  

Finally, they held Roethlisberger to 17 pts (314 and 1 TD), who had essentially one weapon in Brown (when Bell went out), who they game planned to take away.  

The top QBs they faced were Palmer, Tannehill... Dalton... Wilson (who thrashed them, and had a down year)... Flacco (who had a huge game).. and one game against Ben? 

Yes, of course, it is not their fault who they played on the schedule.  But when you get to face Tyrod Taylor twice, Osweiller twice, Ryan Fitzpatrick!  Matt Moore! Jared Goff?  Siemian?  Osweiller?  Landry Jones? ...  chances are you aren't going to give up a lot of points.  

None of the QBs on the list above are better than Matt Ryan (or the ATL offense they'll face).  

No one is saying the Pats are not a good defense.  They are.  But we're not talking about the 85 Bears here... or the 2000 Ravens.. or even the 2015 Broncos.  As such, it just seems like this top offense vs top defense that is going around here is a bit skewed or misleading.  

Instead of ATL's offense vs the NE defense, I see it billed more as the ATL offense vs the NE offense.  NE has the experience and coaching edge, although ATL's coaches are no slouches.  Belichick with 2 weeks to prepare may be the difference.  

 
I think Matt Ryan's pretty damned smart and a young D has responded well to Dan Quinn. They're a good team. 

I'm not betting against BB.

 
The ATL rise this season is reminiscent of the Panthers run last year.  Ryan, who may win MVP (like Newton last year), leading a hot offense that went through playoff competition like a hot knife through butter to face a team that has been there before (many times).  

One visible difference is that ATL (and Ryan) is not facing a team with a relentless pass rush off the edges (no Von Miller or Malik Jackson on the field).  Then again, they are facing a much better QB and offense in the Pats (Brady has aged much better than Manning, for sure).  Both offenses should put up plenty of points this time.  

 
Football Outsiders has some statistics (here) that show NE's #1 scoring defense is a little misleading. FO has them at #11 overall, with a really good run defense (#4) but bad pass defense (#23). 

For reference, Atlanta has played 10 games against teams with a better overall defense than New England by DVOA:
Denver (win)
Arizona (win)
Philly (loss)
Seattle (win and loss)
San Diego (loss)
Carolina (win and win)
Tampa Bay (win and loss)

That's 10 games against better defenses, with a record of 6-4.

 
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It may not truly be indicative of the ATL pass defense, but they ranked in the Bottom 5 this year in passing yards allowed.

In Brady's last 10 seasons, he's faced Bottom 5 defenses in terms of passing yards allowed 16 times (which happens to be an NFL season worth of games):

13-3 record, 551 PF, 249 PA, 412 completions in 616 attempts, 4913 passing yards, 47 TD, 9 INT, 110.4 passer rating.

(Two of the losses were to the 2011 Giants and the other was to the 2015 Eagles when NE allowed blocked punt, punt, and interception return TDs in a 7 minute span.)
Those games also include four games scoring 50+ points. Overall, NE scored an average of 4 ppg more than they normally did across those games.

By comparison, Ryan got to face 6 Bottom 5 ranked pass defenses this year (GB, NOS, and CAR each twice). You play who is on your schedule, but the Falcons got a lot of low hanging fruit this year. (The same argument will be used the other way against NE . . . that they did not face Top 5 scoring teams or Top QBs this season.)

 
Football Outsiders has some statistics (here) that show NE's #1 scoring defense is a little misleading. FO has them at #11 overall, with a really good run defense (#4) but bad pass defense (#23). 

For reference, Atlanta has played 10 games against teams with a better overall defense than New England by DVOA:
Denver (win)
Arizona (win)
Philly (loss)
Seattle (win and loss)
San Diego (loss)
Carolina (win and win)
Tampa Bay (win and loss)

That's 10 games against better defenses, with a record of 6-4.
Using the Football Outsiders rankings, NE faced 16 teams better than the Falcons ranked 27th defense and went 14-2 in those games. Toss the games Brady missed and they went 11-1. However, I suspect both pass defenses are getting a bum rep here as both teams were usually playing with the lead and opponents were just chucking the ball late in the game and accumulating garbage time passing stats.

 
No one is saying the Pats are not a good defense.  They are.  But we're not talking about the 85 Bears here... or the 2000 Ravens.. or even the 2015 Broncos.  As such, it just seems like this top offense vs top defense that is going around here is a bit skewed or misleading.  
Who is saying top defense or drawing those comparisons? 

 
For reference, Atlanta has played 10 games against teams with a better overall defense than New England by DVOA:
Denver (win)
Arizona (win)
Philly (loss)
Seattle (win and loss)
San Diego (loss)
Carolina (win and win)
Tampa Bay (win and loss)

That's 10 games against better defenses, with a record of 6-4.
Now let's shift the focus to offense on those teams they beat: 
Denver: 30th
Arizona: 18th
Seattle: 17th
Carolina: 26th
Tampa Bay:16th 

So while Atlanta has gone 6-4 against teams with good DVOA defenses, all of those wins have come against teams with offenses ranking in the bottom half of the league. Mean while the patriots have the #1 ranked offense under that system, and #2 scoring offense overall. So while Atlanta HAS managed a slightly better than .500 record against good defensive squads, New England will be by far the most complete team they've faced. 

 
No one is saying the Pats are not a good defense.  They are.  But we're not talking about the 85 Bears here... or the 2000 Ravens.. or even the 2015 Broncos.  As such, it just seems like this top offense vs top defense that is going around here is a bit skewed or misleading.  

Instead of ATL's offense vs the NE defense, I see it billed more as the ATL offense vs the NE offense.  NE has the experience and coaching edge, although ATL's coaches are no slouches.  Belichick with 2 weeks to prepare may be the difference.  
I can't argue with any of this.

Is NE really the #1 defense? No way. I've watched every game with my own eyes. It's not an elite defense, but it's pretty damn good...and getting better.

And I believe the advanced metrics speak to the NE D being much better than ATL's. 

If the offenses are a wash, it's the difference in D that's going to win/lose this game. That's why I give NE the edge and think the 3 point spread is justified.

 
Who is saying top defense or drawing those comparisons? 
No one is saying that.  I didn't imply that it was posted either.  I was just saying that it appears that this game is being somewhat billed as the best offense vs the top defense in the league.  Or at least that stats were posted comparing success rates with top offenses vs top defenses in the SB.  That is all fine and well.  Then one poster (not me) said that the whole NE being the top defense is a fraud.  To which another poster brought up the fact that NE can't help who is on their schedule.  My post was meant to say that there should be a grain of salt included with talks of top offenses and top defenses in the SB.  

 
I can't argue with any of this.

Is NE really the #1 defense? No way. I've watched every game with my own eyes. It's not an elite defense, but it's pretty damn good...and getting better.

And I believe the advanced metrics speak to the NE D being much better than ATL's. 

If the offenses are a wash, it's the difference in D that's going to win/lose this game. That's why I give NE the edge and think the 3 point spread is justified.
I agree with you.  I think both offenses are potent and I believe NE has a fine defense.  Both defenses have improved as of late, but I'd agree that NE has the better defense right now.   I think it'll come down to the offense and QB play.  The 3 point spread is certainly justified.  Brady is phenomenal and relentless.  On the other hand, this is all new for Ryan.  Edge to Brady.  

 
voiceofunreason said:
The Steelers problem going in is they don't pressure the qb


The Steelers were 10th in the league with 38 sacks, led the league in sacks over the final 8ish games of the regular season and lead the league in sacks during the playoffs. Where are you getting this from?

 
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Looking at Football Outsider's advanced metrics (weighted to favor more recent games):
• Atlanta and New England are the two top offenses in the league. 
• New England has an above average (11th) defense, while Atlanta has a below average (22nd) defense. 
• New England had a very good (6th) special teams, while Atlanta is above average (11th) 

This is certainly anyone's game, but I do think New England has an edge. 

 
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The Steelers were 10 in the league with 38 sacks, led the league in sacks over the final 8ish games and lead the league in sacks during the playoffs. Where are you getting this from?
:goodposting:  

Just because the Steelers failed to get pressure on Brady doesn't change the fact that they were a VERY good pass-rushing team down the stretch. Atlanta fans would be ill-advised to assume it's as simple as just deciding they will pressure Brady. Nearly every NFL team is aware that's the best way to beat NE. Very very few have the personnel or ability to scheme in such a fashion as to be able to DO it. 

 
fruity pebbles said:
Give me the more experienced team
This is my concern - the moment may be too big for them, especially the defense, as it's really young.  I thought that may be the case against GB but they were so beat up (before and during the game) that we were able to just overpower their D.  If Ryan doesn't make mistakes I think it will be close.

I like the fact that Quinn has experience with defending Brady - I trust him to come up with something.  I expect them to do something similar to GB and play nickel the whole time and dare BB and McDaniels to run the ball.  They are good at doing that but I think Quinn will take his chances with that and then run and hit hard when they do pass.

 
bigmarc27 said:
Youll look at our total defense ranking and it won't look great, but the improvement week to week has been immense. 
Not to over sell the D but some of those stats were racked up by teams after the game was in hand - we had several of those this year.

 
Not to over sell the D but some of those stats were racked up by teams after the game was in hand - we had several of those this year.
Just as NE may not really be the #1 D is ATL's D a little overrated because of these situations where the D could pin their ears back up a ton? Doubt that will happen against NE. From what I recall in these blowout games, things tended to snowball for their D...ints, defensive TDs, etc.

Also, question to ATL fans: When did Trufant's season end? Curious how the secondary performed pre and post.

 
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I can't argue with any of this.

Is NE really the #1 defense? No way. I've watched every game with my own eyes. It's not an elite defense, but it's pretty damn good...and getting better.

And I believe the advanced metrics speak to the NE D being much better than ATL's. 

If the offenses are a wash, it's the difference in D that's going to win/lose this game. That's why I give NE the edge and think the 3 point spread is justified.
I've watched all of NE's games this year, and they don't pass the eyeball test. They always look suspect and that at any moment the sky will come crashing down on them. But at the end of the game, you look at the scoreboard and the suspect defense allowed the opposition to score in the teens.

I posted in one of the other threads that NE gave away 14 points to BAL and 10 points to HOU by committing 4 turnovers in their own red zone. Against the Ravens, a punt returner let the ball bounce off his ankle and the Ravens recovered at the the NE 3 yard line. NE fumbled the ensuing kickoff and BAL scored again. Against HOU, Brady threw a pick on the first play of the second half and HOU ended up with a FG. Again on the kickoff, NE fumbled at their own 10 yard line and HOU cashed in for a TD.

Not that it matters at this point, but excluding those 24 gift points to the opposition, in December and January, the Patriots defense has only allowed 62 points in 7 games. That's less than 9 ppg. No one is suggesting they were playing the 2013 Broncos . . .

Rams 10 points (vs. 14 ppg in all other games)
Ravens 9 points (vs. 21 ppg in all other games)
Broncos 3 points (vs. 22 ppg in all other games)
Jets 3 points (vs. 18 ppg in all other games)
Dolphins 14 points (vs. 23 ppg in all other games)
Texans 3 points (vs. 17 ppg in all other games)
Steelers 17 points (vs. 25 ppg in all other games)

On average, the Pats defense allowed opponents 11.5 fewer ppg than their regular output over the last 1-2 months of the season (again, subtracting the 24 points the special teams and offense gave away). None of those teams are remotely in the same league offensively compared to ATL, but it doesn't change how stingy the Patriots defense has been lately.

 

 

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