I can't argue with any of this.
Is NE really the #1 defense? No way. I've watched every game with my own eyes. It's not an elite defense, but it's pretty damn good...and getting better.
And I believe the advanced metrics speak to the NE D being much better than ATL's.
If the offenses are a wash, it's the difference in D that's going to win/lose this game. That's why I give NE the edge and think the 3 point spread is justified.
I've watched all of NE's games this year, and they don't pass the eyeball test. They always look suspect and that at any moment the sky will come crashing down on them. But at the end of the game, you look at the scoreboard and the suspect defense allowed the opposition to score in the teens.
I posted in one of the other threads that NE gave away 14 points to BAL and 10 points to HOU by committing 4 turnovers in their own red zone. Against the Ravens, a punt returner let the ball bounce off his ankle and the Ravens recovered at the the NE 3 yard line. NE fumbled the ensuing kickoff and BAL scored again. Against HOU, Brady threw a pick on the first play of the second half and HOU ended up with a FG. Again on the kickoff, NE fumbled at their own 10 yard line and HOU cashed in for a TD.
Not that it matters at this point, but excluding those 24 gift points to the opposition, in December and January, the Patriots defense has only allowed 62 points in 7 games. That's less than 9 ppg. No one is suggesting they were playing the 2013 Broncos . . .
Rams 10 points (vs. 14 ppg in all other games)
Ravens 9 points (vs. 21 ppg in all other games)
Broncos 3 points (vs. 22 ppg in all other games)
Jets 3 points (vs. 18 ppg in all other games)
Dolphins 14 points (vs. 23 ppg in all other games)
Texans 3 points (vs. 17 ppg in all other games)
Steelers 17 points (vs. 25 ppg in all other games)
On average, the Pats defense allowed opponents 11.5 fewer ppg than their regular output over the last 1-2 months of the season (again, subtracting the 24 points the special teams and offense gave away). None of those teams are remotely in the same league offensively compared to ATL, but it doesn't change how stingy the Patriots defense has been lately.