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*** Official Super Bowl LI Thread - Falcons vs Patriots *** (2 Viewers)

I recall earlier in the year NE's Patricia was getting a bit testy and defensive when it came to the D. They were not performing earlier in the year. There were lots of problems in the secondary, talk that Butler and Ryan had "taken a step back," and there was some kind of issue with Sheard as well where they actually inactivated him.

All this seemed to come together in the 2nd half of the season though.

 
kyoun1e said:
Just as NE may not really be the #1 D is ATL's D a little overrated because of these situations where the D could pin their ears back up a ton? Doubt that will happen against NE. From what I recall in these blowout games, things tended to snowball for their D...ints, defensive TDs, etc.

Also, question to ATL fans: When did Trufant's season end? Curious how the secondary performed pre and post.
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Could be - not really sure on that.

Trufant, I think, has missed about 8 games now (or so) - basically missed half the season if I recall.  Definitely our best corner and we could really use him.  

 
Quinn's teams overall record against NE . . .

2014 SEA L 24-28
2008 NYJ W 34-31 (Cassel)
2008 NYJ L 10-19 (Cassel)
2007 NYJ L 10-20
2007 NYJ L 14-38
2006 MIA W 21-0
2006 MIA L 10-20
2005 MIA W 28-26
2005 MIA L 16-23
2004 SFO L 7-21

Not sure how much value there is looking at the results of Quinn's former teams (4 of them . . . with none of them as a HC and none of the games involving his current team), but they overall went 3-7 against NE with the average score 17-23.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Wait . . . wasn't this the propaganda that was being distributed to make the Steelers look like they would win?
I am no way saying that ATL and Ryan are not a formidable opponent, but what are the Patriots supposed to do. They have to play the teams on their schedule.
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And then they lost a top 3 RB in the first quarter. Maybe NE will get that lucky again for say like, the 3rd or 4th game in a row?

 
I'm seeing a lot of comments re: the two offenses are #1 and #2, so it's a wash. I don't believe that's true...ATL is significantly better than NE on offense. In terms of points per game, yards per play, basically any metric. I mean NE has a very good offense, but ATL's is historically good. Up there with the legendary offenses like 99 Rams.

 
ShamrockPride said:
And then they lost a top 3 RB in the first quarter. Maybe NE will get that lucky again for say like, the 3rd or 4th game in a row?
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I'll see your Top 3 RB and raise you the most prolific scoring TE in NFL history.
As being bandied about by plenty of other people in multiple threads, unless Bell played defense, PIT wasn't going to win that game.
You might have had a case if the game could have been even remotely close. Given the Steelers HORRIFIC defensive game plan and lack of tackling, they were DOA last night.

 
Rick James said:
I'm seeing a lot of comments re: the two offenses are #1 and #2, so it's a wash. I don't believe that's true...ATL is significantly better than NE on offense. In terms of points per game, yards per play, basically any metric. I mean NE has a very good offense, but ATL's is historically good. Up there with the legendary offenses like 99 Rams.
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I don't think it's quite that cut and dry. Football Outsiders ranks NEP 1 and ATL 2 in DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value over Average) that has been weighted to favor recent games over early games. Using that metric it has them neck and neck, with NEP performing 25% better than an average NFL offense, and ATL performing 24.8% better than an average NFL offense. 

DVOA, explained here, is a very interesting statistic that does a great job of compensating for different schedules and opponents. 

It's also important to factor in that this offense was without its HOF QB for 25% of the season. What would ATL's collective offensive output look like if they had started Matt Schaub for the first 4 weeks of the season? 

 
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Anarchy99 said:
I'll see your Top 3 RB and raise you the most prolific scoring TE in NFL history.
As being bandied about by plenty of other people in multiple threads, unless Bell played defense, PIT wasn't going to win that game.
You might have had a case if the game could have been even remotely close. Given the Steelers HORRIFIC defensive game plan and lack of tackling, they were DOA last night.
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Really no sense in engaging this guy.

 
I will never bet against against Bill Belichick given two weeks to prepare a game plan.

Given two weeks, I think it’s likely Belichick reminds the world that Matt Ryan is still Matt Ryan...I do respect the tremendous offensive talent that ATL has, but I would not be shocked to see this game resemble last year’s SB where the up and coming/can’t lose team and their flavor of the moment qb (Carolina and Cam Newton) get shut down by the legendary qb (Manning/Brady) and in this case their legendary coach (Belichick) who has been there many times before.

It is true that the Patriots schedule has been mediocre at best, but I can’t fault them for that. They beat who was on their schedule. If you take out a fluke loss to the Bills when the Patriots were forced to use their 3rd string qb (Jacoby Brissett) their record including playoffs would be 17-1.

On the other hand, the Falcons lost 5 games this year. They lost to Tampa Bay, Seattle, San Diego Philadelphia and KC...Point being they are hardly the invincible team that the media has been building them up to be.

Prediction: Roger Goodell is forced to hand a 5th Lombardi Trophy over to a smirking Bob Kraft and Bill Belichick as the Patriots secure a relatively easy victory over the Falcons along the lines of a 34-24 victory

 
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Anarchy99 said:
I'll see your Top 3 RB and raise you the most prolific scoring TE in NFL history.
As being bandied about by plenty of other people in multiple threads, unless Bell played defense, PIT wasn't going to win that game.
You might have had a case if the game could have been even remotely close. Given the Steelers HORRIFIC defensive game plan and lack of tackling, they were DOA last night.
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Idk what they were doing on defense. But I'm pretty sure Nick Saban could have come up with a better scheme. Regardless, Bell is too significant for me to write off like you are. More ground, more attention, more clock all = less Brady. And BB could lose anybody but Brady and still have a chance at a SB. Not denying his ability. But it's in the books. Ben and Tomlin stunk last night with or without Bell. The end.

 
Saboo said:
On the other hand, the Falcons lost 5 games this year. They lost to Tampa Bay, Seattle, San Diego Philadelphia and KC...Point being they are hardly the invincible team that the media has been building them up to be.
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ATL D allowed Alex Smith to go 21-25-270. Rivers torched them too. Both  in ATL.

What took place in those spots?

 
Rick James said:
I'm seeing a lot of comments re: the two offenses are #1 and #2, so it's a wash. I don't believe that's true...ATL is significantly better than NE on offense. In terms of points per game, yards per play, basically any metric. I mean NE has a very good offense, but ATL's is historically good. Up there with the legendary offenses like 99 Rams.
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I will caution people that the goal is to win an individual game . . . not necessarily just rack up the score. The Pats could have scored more points on the season but didn't need to. DO NOT confuse taking the foot off the gas vs. the inability to score a ton of points. NE outscored their opponents in the first quarter 154-35 over the course of the season. They led the league in scoring differential and now have outscored their opponents by 228 points (which is 55 better than ATL). People want to hold their schedule against them, but I'm quite confident that if they had some tougher opponents they would have scored more points because of it.

On a side note, NE gave up 10% of their total points allowed on the season (25) on garbage time points given up in the last two minutes of games that had essentially already been decided.

Speaking of those high scoring Rams teams, how did things work out in the SB when they were two TD favorites against NE? Belichick has plenty of experience against all types of offenses and QB's, even if this year's Patriots team didn't face many of them.

As for the Falcons, their high flying offense is partly due to their playing 10 games against Bottom 12 scoring / passing defenses. By comparison, NE played 1 team ranked in the Bottom 12 pass defenses.

To summarize, looking solely at raw numbers does not always tell the entire story.

 
George Jefferson Airplane said:
12 of those 38 sacks came against the Browns. Are we even allowed to count those? ;)
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Yes, because if they played someone else they still would have gotten sacks even if it was half as many. The Steelers were still very good at getting pressure on the QB for most of the season.  Plus the point was at voiceofunreason. Another poster said voice was using hindsight about the Steelers and voice said he wasn't. Clearly he was because his points were just based off the last game.

 
The General said:
Lame playoffs so far..
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Can't disagree with this one bit. On Sunday of the divisional round I thought the best 6 teams remained, Seattle and Houston were knocked out on Saturday. I thought all 6 of those teams were pretty equal. Obviously I was wrong, New England and Atlanta are clearly the best 2 teams in the NFL right now.

 
I'd love to see a good game. I think most of the country will,pull for Atlanta as NE is probably just behind Dallas as most hated team by non fans of said team. I know in my area--Philadelphia--they will root for Ryan since he's a local kid. 

Me personally, I just want a fun game. This may sound crazy to other Eagles fans but I can't hang onto the hate anymore regarding NE. What I'm seeing is the greatest run of a sports team in my life time. Maybe like the 1920s Yankees or Browns of the '50s but I wasn't around yet. 

Belichick is masterful. For all we non-patriot fans bash him, there isn't one of us outside of maybe Seattle fans, that wouldn't trade their current HC and perhaps their left testical for him. 

And I hate Goodell more than I have any animosity for NE. Say what you want about spy gate (and who knows? My own team may here been jobbed) but deflate gate was pure balderdash. 

Ryan wins--great! BB sticks it to Goodell--great! I just want a good game and history with NE says we will likely get that.

 
My eyeball test on the Pats D:

Nobody is going to run up the gut on them.  DTs Alan Branch and Malcom Brown play very disciplined 2-gap and don't get blown off the LOS.  LBs Dont'a Hightower and Elandon Roberts along with SS Patrick Chung are strong up the middle and will minimize any damage beyond the LOS.  The two DTs are the key, though, and probably contribute the most to their high defensive DVOA against the run.

The DEs are undersized, but very athletic and versatile and do a surprising job holding up in the running game.  Chris Long, Rob Ninkovich (called an LB, but plays more like a DE), Trey Flowers and Jabaal Sheard rotate in and out depending on down, distance and offensive personnel.  Flowers is without a doubt the best pass rusher with Sheard having his moments, but overall the Pats pass rush doesn't give any offensive coordinator nightmares.

At LB, Hightower is usually the 3-down LB, but he's been dinged up lately so sees more subbing.  He offers the best combination of run stuffing and pass rush.  Roberts is the fellow run-stuffer and Kyle Van Noy typically subs for Roberts in passing situations as he has better coverage skills.  Shea McClellin doesn't see the field much aside from passing downs as a pass rusher.

CB Malcom Butler is a legit lockdown CB, but that doesn't always mean he sees the opponent's #1 WR.  Often, the Pats will use him solo on the #2 WR and double-cover the #1 WR with either CB Logan Ryan or nickel CB Eric Rowe and FS Devin McCourty.  Against Julio Jones, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see Butler on him and also see some help from McCourty as the Pats did with Antonio Brown in the 3 games against him since Butler became a starter in 2015.

Ryan is quickly becoming a solid CB in his own right, especially covering the slot receiver.  The weak link is Rowe, who avoided becoming a goat in the AFCCG with some bad drops by the Steelers WRs.  He's tall so if the Pats do use Butler solo on Sanu or Gabriel, it might be Rowe/McCourty on Jones rather than Ryan/McCourty, although I think that would be playing with fire.

Chung is decent in coverage, especially against physical TEs.  He may get asked to cover the Atlanta RBs out of the backfield who may be difficult for him to keep up with.  McCourty covers a ton of ground with his CB speed from his centerfield spot.  Dime safety Duron Harmon often joins McCourty covering the deep zones in obvious passing situations and does his best when everything is in front of him.

 
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Come on now, Atlanta torched the #1 pass defense in the league (Denver) and moved the ball very well in both games against Seattle. 

 
With NE advancing to the Super Bowl, that freed up a spot for Andy Dalton on the Pro Bowl roster. So the Patriots can now say they beat 3 Pro Bowl quarterbacks this year! (Big Ben, Dalton, and Tyrod Taylor).

 
Rick James said:
Come on now, Atlanta torched the #1 pass defense in the league (Denver) and moved the ball very well in both games against Seattle. 
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Atlanta torched the Denver LBs trying to cover the RBs.  That strategy absolutely has legs against the Patriots.  I would not be surprised to see the Pats in dime coverage the whole game, hoping their front 4 can hold up against any running game and provide the pass rush.  Picturing Roberts, Hightower (dinged up or not) or even SS Chung trying to stay with them is scary.

 
Rick James said:
Come on now, Atlanta torched the #1 pass defense in the league (Denver) and moved the ball very well in both games against Seattle. 
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15-28-267-1 isn't exactly torched, but ok.

Think everyone knows at this point that Seattle's D wasn't the same ol' D as in the past. Whether it was the loss of E. Thomas or a Sherman injury that team was passed on big time.

 
Not so much on this site, but poking around at game predictions at other places, lots of people are predicting ATL to put up 35, 38, 41 points, etc.. In the TB/BB era, NE has given up 35 points in 268 games (3.7%). I wouldn't say it won't happen, but I would be surprised. By contrast, in that time, NE has had 70 games in which they scored 35+ points (26.1%).

This is not to say that ATL won't win, only that I would be surprised if the Falcons scored 35 points.

 
kyoun1e said:
15-28-267-1 isn't exactly torched, but ok.

Think everyone knows at this point that Seattle's D wasn't the same ol' D as in the past. Whether it was the loss of E. Thomas or a Sherman injury that team was passed on big time.
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10 yards per pass not good enough for you?

 
Anarchy99 said:
Not so much on this site, but poking around at game predictions at other places, lots of people are predicting ATL to put up 35, 38, 41 points, etc.. In the TB/BB era, NE has given up 35 points in 268 games (3.7%). I wouldn't say it won't happen, but I would be surprised. By contrast, in that time, NE has had 70 games in which they scored 35+ points (26.1%).

This is not to say that ATL won't win, only that I would be surprised if the Falcons scored 35 points.
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I don't know why, but this reminds me of the 1st super bowl when New England and the Giants played. Everyone thought that game would have a ton of points because the way the regular season finale did. I see something close like 24 - 21

 
More talented offense the Pats have faced, this Falcons team or the greatest show on turf? Tough to compare across eras but what do people here think?

 
ShamrockPride said:
More talented offense the Pats have faced, this Falcons team or the greatest show on turf? Tough to compare across eras but what do people here think?
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Tossup.  Rams WRs were better as a group, but had no singular WR talent like Julio.  Faulk was better than Freeman, but there was no 2 RB set the Rams could scare opponents with.  Neither team's TEs are considered top-end threats.  Rams probably had a slightly better OL.

 
pats3in4 said:
Tossup.  Rams WRs were better as a group, but had no singular WR talent like Julio.  Faulk was better than Freeman, but there was no 2 RB set the Rams could scare opponents with.  Neither team's TEs are considered top-end threats.  Rams probably had a slightly better OL.
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IIRC that Rams defense was really good in their own right.

 
ShamrockPride said:
More talented offense the Pats have faced, this Falcons team or the greatest show on turf? Tough to compare across eras but what do people here think?
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Rams were better but their coach (Martz) was a moron. He was easily outcoached. ATL not as good but coaching is far better.

 
common opponents from teamrankings.com


New England Results


Atlanta Results


Opponent (Rank)


Date


H/A/N


Result


Date


H/A/N


Result


Arizona (8)


09/11


Away


W by 2


 


 


 


Arizona (8)


 


 


 


11/27


Home


W by 19


Seattle (5)


11/13


Home


L by 7


 


 


 


Seattle (5)


 


 


 


01/14


Home


W by 16


Seattle (5)


 


 


 


10/16


Away


L by 2


San Francisco (31)


11/20


Away


W by 13


 


 


 


San Francisco (31)


 


 


 


12/18


Home


W by 28


Los Angeles (30)


12/04


Home


W by 16


 


 


 


Los Angeles (30)


 


 


 


12/11


Away


W by 28


Denver (7)


12/18


Away


W by 13


 


 


 


Denver (7)


 


 


 


10/09


Away


W by 7


 
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Statistically, Belichick's defenses give up a lot more points to teams with running QBs.  The most points they allowed in a game this year was to the Seahawks who have Russell Wilson as a running threat during his career.  The second most points was to the Bills who have Tyrod Taylor, another running threat.  What's interesting is when you look at the stat sheet for games vs running QBs, Belichick actually locks down the run threat pretty well.  But OVERALL, he gives up a lot more points.  I'm not sure why this is without intensely studying game film, but it suggests he is overthinking it or overplaying the running aspect of the QB & leaving everything else open.  Wilson didn't have a great season running the ball but, again, if Belichicks sucks at ANYTHING in coaching it is facing offenses with QBs that have a history of running.

Statistically, teams with a huge pass rush can give Brady fits.

The Falcons have neither.

The Falcons feature a classic drop-back pocket passer.  Belichick's defenses OUTPERFORM against these types.  I don't care if you've got Kurt Warner in his prime back there, he trends STRONG vs guys like Ryan.  The Falcons don't have a crushing pass rush like the Giants either.  Its an ok pass rush but this is more a finesse team.

If you were going to construct a team to defeat Belichick, you'd have a huge pass rush and a running QB.  The Falcons are pretty much the exact opposite of that.

Game should go under the total and Patriots should win.

 
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Some thoughts:

This game comes down to two things, defense and experience. The Patriots have the edge in both. They were just here 2 years ago, and have a defense that can limit Ryan and the Falcons offense. The 7 times the top scoring offense has played the top scoring defense in the Super Bowl, the defense won 6 of those times. A top scoring offense hasn't won a Super Bowl since the 49ers years ago, but they also had a top 3 defense. Just ask the 2007 Patriots, 2013 Broncos, and 2015 Panthers about how the top scoring offense fares in the Super Bowl. The Falcons also have 4 rookies starting on defense, including two in their secondary at free safety and CB. Brady will target them early and often as he did against the Steelers 2 rookies Burns and Davis. Quinn tends to play a lot of zone coverage which Brady also eats up. And while Quinn has been here before, the majority of the team have never played in a game on this level, and I think that will come into play as well. The Patriots are 8-0 on the road this year, and the Falcons defense is 27th in pts allowed, 25th in yards, and 27th in passing yards. I expect a good game, but its hard to not give the edge to the team that's been here multiple times in the past.

 
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devouredbychaos said:
Some thoughts:

This game comes down to two things, defense and experience. The Patriots have the edge in both. They were just here 2 years ago, and have a defense that can limit Ryan and the Falcons offense. The 7 times the top scoring offense has played the top scoring defense in the Super Bowl, the defense won 6 of those times. A top scoring offense hasn't won a Super Bowl since the 49ers years ago, but they also had a top 3 defense. Just ask the 2007 Patriots, 2013 Broncos, and 2015 Panthers about how the top scoring offense fares in the Super Bowl. The Falcons also have 4 rookies starting on defense, including two in their secondary at free safety and CB. Brady will target them early and often as he did against the Steelers 2 rookies Burns and Davis. Quinn tends to play a lot of zone coverage which Brady also eats up. And while Quinn has been here before, the majority of the team have never played in a game on this level, and I think that will come into play as well. The Patriots are 8-0 on the road this year, and the Falcons defense is 27th in pts allowed, 25th in yards, and 27th in passing yards. I expect a good game, but its hard to not give the edge to the team that's been here multiple times in the past.
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Agree 100%. To be honest, I'm surprised the point spread isn't a bit higher.

Wasn't it Quinn who was the D coordinator for Seattle in the super bowl two years ago? Brady shredded that D.

For me it comes down to the ATL D being able to get pressure up the middle. If Brady has time, and the ATL D sits in a zone, forget it.

 
Career totals playing indoors (clearly no home games for Brady):

Brady
19-7 (.731), 268 yd/gm,  2.0 TD, 0.8 INT, 113.6 passer rating

Ryan
61-32 (.656), 271 yd/gm, 1.8 TD, 0.8 TD, 96.9 passer rating

 
msudaisy26 said:
Rams and not close IMO.
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Not remotely...Faulk was All-world...Bruce and Holt are borderline Hall-of-Famers...people forget Az Hakim but he was a scary player back than and Ricky Proehl was no slouch as a #4...their O line was also very good with a stud like Orlando Pace  at LT...Atlanta has a high-powered O this year but they need to do more to be compared to this unit...

 
Boston said:
Not remotely...Faulk was All-world...Bruce and Holt are borderline Hall-of-Famers...people forget Az Hakim but he was a scary player back than and Ricky Proehl was no slouch as a #4...their O line was also very good with a stud like Orlando Pace  at LT...Atlanta has a high-powered O this year but they need to do more to be compared to this unit...
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STL scored 1.56 times the average team (323 points) and produced at 1.32 times the average team in yardage (5081 yards) while ATL scored at 1.48 times the league average (364 points) and racked up 1.19 times the average team yardage (5606 yards).

 
Saboo said:
I do respect the tremendous offensive talent that ATL has, but I would not be shocked to see this game resemble last year’s SB where the up and coming/can’t lose team and their flavor of the moment qb (Carolina and Cam Newton) get shut down by the legendary qb (Manning/Brady) and in this case their legendary coach (Belichick) who has been there many times before.

Prediction: Roger Goodell is forced to hand a 5th Lombardi Trophy over to a smirking Bob Kraft and Bill Belichick as the Patriots secure a relatively easy victory over the Falcons along the lines of a 34-24 victory
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Oh come on.  Peyton Manning shut down Carolina and Cam Newton??  Manning had 141 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT.  Newton had 265 yards with 1 INT and 45 yards rushing.  Unless they snuck Manning onto the Denver defensive line at some point, he was a non-factor in that game.  Denver's defense returned a fumble for a TD for their first score, and Carolina had another fumble on their own 4 yard line to set up Denver's last TD late in the game.  Everything else was FGs.  

Denver had 8 punts; Carolina had 7 punts.  Both defenses played extremely well in that SB.  Denver cashed in on Newton's mistakes, and that was the story in the game.  Carolina had 5 sacks and Denver had 6 sacks (2 forced fumbles made the difference).  Outstanding defense won the SB last year.  But legendary Peyton Manning looked like an old man out there.  

This year?  ATL has a better offense than Carolina had last year, and NE does not have the dominant defense that Denver had last year.  I think that favors ATL.  In any case, I'd be surprised if we see the same type of defensive game like last year.  Apples and oranges in my opinion.

And RE:  Roger Goodell.  I heard it from a good source that Goodell plans to be sick on SB Sunday.  He won't even be there!   :P

 
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