Maik Jeaunz said:
I never disliked the twinnies (probably because my wife is a twin and I'm used to the insanity) but I'm surprised and happy with the strategy that Nat played. she engineered the voting out of the last 4 people, and it really was brilliant.
1. "accidentally" vote out Alec to keep Keith, who will vote with her next time
2. use Keith's new vote with her alliance to blindside Jon
3. offer to "save" Jac to blindside Baylor
4. use Jac's new loyalty to get out Keith
it really was amazing, and as opposed to someone like Russell, she did it all without really pissing anyone off, assuring her that she would get the winning votes. amazing.
1. Why expose yourself here and in the process leave a strong challenge player in the game? If you just stick with the plan, what other options does Alec have at that point other than to go along just like Keith did?
Who would Alec think kept him in the game - Nat? Or Jon? Natalie gains no currency by sticking with the plan. Alec meekly goes at 6 and then it's 2 pairs and Natalie. If Natalie picks a side at that point she gets less strategic credit. It's just circumstance that placed her in that spot. And exposing herself by going against her alliance? I don't think the marginal strategic gain was worth the risk here. I will give her credit for talking her way out of it though. This is why I say she was the one-eyed man in the land of the blind. Good players would have smoked her out right there.2. See 1.
See 1. Alec comes into that vote not owing her anything - and probably has no relationship with her beforehand to rely on. And amazingly the dude had less strategic ability than Keith. At least Keith had the instinct of seeing what gets him ahead. Alec can't even keep his mouth closed. Literally. Alec may not "owe" her anything but he's still a rat in a trap and the rest of the alliance is still sticking to the plan for all appearances. And as far as keeping his mouth closed, Keith was the guy who made the huge tribal council blunder.
3. Keep Baylor instead and don't put Missy's loved one on the jury.
And then you're in a final 3 with Missy and Baylor where you aren't seen as having made any strategic moves whatsoever. You're seen as a passenger. Missy, while not well liked, is more likely to win a gruding victory b/c she'll be paired with 2 people in Baylor and move-free Nat and so by default is the only strategic mind left. Missy was planning to go with Jon. She had to be forced into that move. You point that out to the jury.
4. Trust that Baylor and Missy, who've been loyal far longer then Jac, see the same logic in voting out Keith.
Again no resume building if you do that - you're just being a passenger on the Missy/Baylor express. Moves have to be seen to be given credit. And clearly Missy and Baylor didn't see the logic in voting out Keith - since they opted to not go with that as a plan. They didn't "opt" for anything, they never got far enough to be in that position.
Go to final tribal with Baylor and Missy.
By booting Baylor when she did, she essentially assured that two jury votes would not go to her if the plan to get rid of Keith at 4 worked. Jon's would go to Jac, and Baylor's would go to Missy. If she boots Jac instead, and assuming Keith still doesn't win immunity, both Baylor and Missy are in the final with no guaranteed votes, and Jac and Jon's votes are both up for grabs. I know it worked, but her move essentially made a quarter of the votes off limits to her that otherwise would have been completely in play, and probably hers for the taking.