It’s not exactly a thunderous roar, more like a stage whisper, running through the ranks of what we used to think of as mainstream Republicans: “Maybe he doesn’t have to be our nominee in 2024.”
They grasp, if not at straws, then at green shoots springing up in one place after another. In Georgia, virtually all of Donald Trump’s favorites lost their nomination fights. A new poll out of New Hampshire shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis running a couple of points ahead of Trump among GOP voters; last October, by comparison, Trump had a 25-point margin. The revelations from the Jan. 6 Committee, while apparently changing few Republican minds, has painted a picture of presidential misconduct so blatant that nearly six in 10 Americans believe he should be charged with criminal conduct. (Pro Tip: A presidential candidate under criminal indictment is in a suboptimal situation). More and more Republicans, while not confronting Trump directly, speak in Aesopian terms about not fighting past battles, about looking to the future, about nominating someone with vaguely humanoid hair (OK, not that last one just yet).
But if Republicans are thinking optimistically about a 2024 campaign without Trump as their nominee, they are also in the grip of an illusion — one which demonstrates a striking lack of understanding about who Trump is.
Here’s the illusion: Trump runs again, but GOP voters are persuaded it is time to turn the page; then, after a series of losses in states ranging from New Hampshire to Georgia to Florida, Trump realizes that there is no mathematical way for him to win the nomination, and throws his support to the apparent nominee, pledging to do all he can to ensure a Republican victory.
OK, now let’s return to planet Earth.