Hey folks, I have been working far too many hours and I have not been on here yet this year, but here is what I wrote on my blog. Yes, I cheated and have 1 game of "data" to make predictions from. Hope everyone is doing well in these tough times! Shady, thanks for getting this started again!
I am sorry I didn’t get any pre season predictions out, but if you can give me a one game mulligan I would appreciate it. I have been a little busier than normal and, well, I guess I didn’t get it done…my apologies.
I guess we will not win every game this year?
Below are my predictions of the players, but I wanted to discuss game 1.
I am good with the lineup/batting order. Many people have made a big deal of Jeter leading off, but that is fine. It also opens up the opportunity for Swisher to bat against some lefties in the 2 spot (taking Damon’s spot). Swisher should see plenty of action acting as a platoon for Nady against righties who are tough on righties and for Damon against lefties who are tough on lefties.
CC couldn’t spot his fastball at all and I thought Baltimore did a nice job of laying off some close pitches. The 3rd base coach screwed up by waving Nady home in that spot; no reason to pull a “Meacham” in that spot. He must have thought the ball went through, but you have to slow Nady up there and then he could walk home if the ball gets through. Even with slowing up Nady would have made it easily if the ball went through. Bad job by Thompson (3rd base coach) there.
Girardi used Swisher at the right time as Ransom is the guy you want to pinch hit for and he correctly pinch ran for him after the double.
I thought Girardi messed up leaving Coke in though. Opening day, you have a full bullpen, Coke had pitched in 2 innings (1.3), why not take him out and get him off to a good start? It was silly to keep him in there, especially because he wasn’t sharp (even if he was effective). But, it is game 1, get him off to a good start and move on. Damon would have caught the ball if it wasn’t interfered with by the fan, but those things happen.
I thought the Yankees defense failed to make a lot of plays they could have. None were terrible/errors, but Ransom, Gardner, Damon and Posada had chances to make plays that they didn’t. Texiera did make a great scoop and a terrible throw by Jeter though.
Just one kind of ugly game to start off the year, but at least Posada and Matsui HR’d to show us how much we missed them last year.
Stay on the bridge folks; as long as we stay healthy we will be winning in the high 90’s this year.
Predictions/thoughts:
Jeter – Jeter is coming off his worst offensive year of his career (rookie year of 48 AB’s excluded). Is his age of 34 showing? Perhaps. His OPS of .771 is still not bad for a SS, but it is not up to his career .845 OPS. Jeter got hit a bunch of times last year and seemed nagged by injuries as his hands didn’t seem “right” for him most of last year. His power was really weak last year and I attribute that a little more to the weakness of his hands compared to age. I expect a small up tick from Jeter offensively and an OPS of around .800. Defensively I have been chronicling Jeter’s shortcomings since the day ARod came and I was the first to say the Yanks should have moved Jeter to CF at that time. The Captain is painfully slow at moving to his left and his hands are not quick around 2nd base. His arm for a SS is middle of the road strength wise, but is inaccurate. Jeter does go back on the popups as well as any SS and does make the routine plays very well. Like I mentioned earlier this year, the Yanks will have a very tough decision with Jeter the year after next. He probably will not hit well enough to be a corner OF and he has no other home? The Yanks will probably be best to part ways with him then…but let’s enjoy him now and hope he can give us an .800 OPS for the next 2 years.
Damon – Hard guy to predict offensively as he has one of the more unique swings in baseball. I would expect a down tick for Damon compared to last year at about the same rate that Jeter should have an up tick. Expect Damon to be around an .800 OPS as well. Defensively, Damon has good range for a LF and while his glove is a little shaky at times, he will cover LF better than anyone else on the team who doesn’t play CF. Damon’s arm is the weakest in baseball and teams will consistently take the extra base on him. This is a huge liability in his game, but the rest of the package is fairly solid.
Texiera – Texiera will become a fan favorite here. He works the count, gets on base, hits for power and plays solid D. He is not a SB threat; that is fine; he will enjoy a great career with the Yanks. I expect an OPS of .950 out of him.
ARod – Assuming his hip is not an issue, I expect ARod to have a similar to slightly better year offensively than last year. Last year he had a very solid OPS of .965 and maintaining will be OK by me, but I predict a little more this year. Maybe wishful thinking as I don’t have a good reason for predicting this. One other note, ARod takes bases as he is an excellent base runner. He also has averaged 21 SB's while only being caught 4 times for his 5 years with the Yanks. Not sure how the hip will impact this, but 15 SB’s with 3 caught is reasonable to expect. BTW, to adjust for the benefit of a player’s ability to steal a base, you can add to the OPS for every SB above twice the caught stealing. For example, 15 SB’s and 3 caught stealing would be 15 – 3 (*2) = 9. The 9 represents 9 extra bases or one way to look at it is to say that 9 singles were turned into doubles. In ARods case 9 extra bases in 550 plate appearances would add 16 points to his OPS (let’s say to adjust from .950 - .966)
Matsui – Missing Matsui for half of last year hurt them more than it would if they lost him this year for the same amount of time. It was just one more of those last straws that knocked the Yanks down last year. His solid presence is “comforting” in the lineup. Turning 35 in June, his age is a factor as well, but his .794 OPS will be improved upon this year!
Posada – Most of you know I am a big fan of Posada. It started back when I thought Torre was foolish to not play Posada over Girardi for a few years and once Posada took over it was the same we felt about the offense of Posada compared to Molina…great to have a catcher hit like Posada did in 2007. That being said, Posada is a guess hitter and at 35 it was strange to have a career year offensively (especially for a catcher who are usually shot at this age). I have to expect a large drop off from 2007’s .969 OPS, but Posada should give us a more than .775 OPS of last year in 168 AB’s. Let’s hope for low-mid .800’s!
Side bar: I started to think about the year Posada had in 2007 and how great it was. I have not done the research, but nobody talks about Posada being a HOF’r and they should. 6 silver sluggers and I think 4 WS rings to go along with 5 All Star appearances. His career OPS of .858 has to be top 10 of all time for a catcher (anybody want to do some research to check this?).
Cano – In reviewing all my predictions last year Cano was my huge swing and miss. Well, I guess my reputation will be tied to this guy as I just can’t see a player with such great wrists as Cano be anything worse than a very solid offensive player. I know he is a hacker (and I hate that), but the guy has immense natural talent to work with and he is only 26. His OPS was an extremely low and disappointing .715 last year. If Cano doesn’t improve his OPS by a full 100 points than something is terribly wrong in my scouting ability. I would put money on this.
Here is to Cano not making me look foolish again.
Nady - His best year was when he had an OPS of .806 and then all of a sudden he has an OPS of .918 with Pittsburgh before he comes to us? Sometimes at the age of 30 guys take it to the next level, but I am not expecting a high .800 OPS from Nady.
Swisher – If Swisher is used wisely he can increase the OPS of Damon and Nady by taking the matchups that they would struggle with. This should also boost Swisher as he should be against righties who struggle against lefties and lefties who struggle with righties. Swisher only hit .219 last year and while he is not a guy who will hit for a high average, it is expected that his production will be solid based on a lot of walks and solid power. He will do better than last year and his OPS will be over .800.
Ransom – A guy who I hope can play decent defense and not be awful offensively. Anything above a .700 OPS is at least in that realm, but I hope for above .725 with anything above .750 a bonus. He has some power, but he will strike out every 4 AB’s.
33 year old players with a total of 217 plate appearances can not be expected to do more than that. Maybe we get lucky until ARod comes back?
Melky – On the positive side, Melky is only 24 years old, a switch hitter and he has a very strong and accurate arm. That is about where it ends though. His release to throw is far too long, he has slow speed for a CF’r, not enough power to play the corners and regressed terribly two years in a row. Could he become a line drive machine, sure he could, but he seems like a player that will always be a 4th or more likely 5th OF’r. If he doesn’t improve, he will be doing that in the minors. He has some ability though and is not worth throwing away, but for the Yanks he doesn’t have much value.
Gardner – Gardner’s offensive numbers were Molina-ish (maybe this can replace the Mendoza line and I should patent it?). But he showed improvement in his 2nd time up last year and I want his defense in CF. He throws better than people have said and can fly and the yanks need that. I would have liked to see him catch that ball in the opener, but Melky would not have been near that ball. Gardner will help us defensively and with his speed is worthy of playing with the team around him. He will also improve on last years .582 OPS significantly. I think a .100 point improvement is reasonable to expect and while he won’t hit for any power, he will steal 30-40 bases (only getting caught a handful of times) if he plays every day. Let’s say he hits .275 with an OBP of .325 and a slug of .375 for a .700 OPS. Lets’ use the ARod SB method from above and if Gardner can steal 35 bases and get caught only 7 times, if he gets 550 PA’s, his OPS would be adjusted up to .738. With his defense, I would be fine with that!
Pitchers – I don’t want to go through every pitcher, but I want to point out that I am more confident in the bullpen than most are (especially after game 1 people are all over the bullpen). Bruney is better than people think and having Coke and Marte will help if Girardi uses them like he should. While there will always inconsistent performances, there is not one pitcher who I don’t think can pitch in the pen and we have some guys in the minors who can step in if needed. The rotation is the best we have had for as long as I can remember. I think the weak link is Pettitte.
As long as Rivera can keep up his amazing pitching (and he doesn’t have to be as great as last year to do this), we will be fine
Boston made some solid moves that were unheralded and TB has a lot of young talent that they can build off of, but I see this Yankee team as being a high 90 win team.
Stay healthy and we will enjoy a great year!
Win number 1 tonight!