Panthers will lose to Vikes in week 3 (1 Viewer)

[ScoobyDoo]

Panthers played like junk and had the worst gameplan you could ever have against the Vikings. Yuck.

 

[tehzig]

I suspect that whatever the gameplan, the Vikings D would have obliterated it.

That was quite the defensive performance.

 

[Assani Fisher]

I do believe Carolina wins this game and should be the favorite, however the line today was Minny -3.5.I was a bit confused by this. Are we missing something?

Pro Football Prospectus had Minn as a 10 win team and Carolina as a 9.5 win team coming into the year. Minn had a tougher schedule which means that them being .5 wins better actually means they're a significantly better team coming into the year(according to PFP, which is highly respected among the sharp betting community).Minnesota started out the season with 2 games in which they were expected(by Vegas and the great majority of the sharp community) to lose. They lost both by the slimmest of margins- a total of 8 points. Nothing regarding our opinion of Minnesota should've changed based upon that.Carolina was expected to be 1-1 after their first two games. Yes they are 2-0, but they have ran above expectations(i.e. gotten lucky) to do that: +1 TO and 40 less total yards vs Chicago. Nothing significant has caused us to change Carolina from their 9.5 win projection...in fact, I havn't even looked but I'd be shocked if any sportsbook had their season win total line at 10 or higher.So preseason expectations told us that Minnesota was slightly better. The game is at Minnesota....that equates to 3 points for HFA and maybe 0.5 or 1 point for being better. The line opened at 3.5 and is now down to 3, mostly imo due to square money coming in heavily on Carolina. As I said, I don't think the first two weeks should've changed our preseason expectations much.

Thanks for the detailed response, and it could turn out to be accurate. However, I don't think the result of this is going to be that predictable necessarily. For starters we've got a new (old) QB for Minny and a star running back with a bad wheel. Delhome playing well, which was something that had to play out and couldn't be predicted by a pre-season publication of some kind. An effective running game and a solid defensive unit thus far with a stud receiver coming back that is itching to hit the field. Other than the fact that Minny is motivated to avoid an 0-3 start, the Panthers seem to have the upper hand. Again, nice post, but I just don't know how accurate it is today.

Thanks for the props, but let me clarify that I didn't mean to imply that anything was "predictable." Vegas makes a profit by putting out lines that are good enough that neither side is good enough of a bet to beat the juice....meaning that its at best a 55/45. Yes sometimes they'll try to pursuade the square bettors with lines that get them going one way, but thats not how most games work.So while I'll gladly gloat that Minnesota won this game, I only though Minnesota was maybe 60% or so to win, so even if they had lost my feelings would not have changed...I would've simply thought that a 40/60 underdog won the game.

 

[Assani Fisher]

And again let me say that Minnesota has done nothing to disprove what you thought of them in the preseason: They lost 2 close games in which they were small underdogs. They won a relatively close game(10 points, but a few key plays could've easily gone the other way) in which they were a small favorite.

 

[Magnum]

Guys, lets face it........Vegas knows more than any of us about these games. Afterall, they don't keep building mega-resorts/casino's because they lose money. The odds on this game have the Vikes favored by 3 to 3.5 points. Judging from this thread....90% of the public appears to be on the Panthers........yet.......they are GETTING 3 to 3.5 points (and the line has been there all week long). This game has a Vikes win by 4 or more written all over it.

Panthers were +9 at San Diego, so they get them wrong quite often.

Obviously, you're not a gambler because you're missing the point. This is about the public being all over ONE side (Vegas goes for a 50/50 split when they set the line and they try to make their money on the vig, juice, etc.)...yet...the line not moving. In this case, the public appears to be all over the Panthers........yet.......the line is not moving. Something stinks about this line/game.

Like I said........."something stinks about this line"........ROOKIE!

 

[KellysHeroes]

And again let me say that Minnesota has done nothing to disprove what you thought of them in the preseason: They lost 2 close games in which they were small underdogs. They won a relatively close game(10 points, but a few key plays could've easily gone the other way) in which they were a small favorite.

They were one 1st down away from beating the Colts... a 3rd & 5 that they wouldn't let TJax attempt.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Guys, lets face it........Vegas knows more than any of us about these games. Afterall, they don't keep building mega-resorts/casino's because they lose money. The odds on this game have the Vikes favored by 3 to 3.5 points. Judging from this thread....90% of the public appears to be on the Panthers........yet.......they are GETTING 3 to 3.5 points (and the line has been there all week long). This game has a Vikes win by 4 or more written all over it.

Panthers were +9 at San Diego, so they get them wrong quite often.

Obviously, you're not a gambler because you're missing the point. This is about the public being all over ONE side (Vegas goes for a 50/50 split when they set the line and they try to make their money on the vig, juice, etc.)...yet...the line not moving. In this case, the public appears to be all over the Panthers........yet.......the line is not moving. Something stinks about this line/game.

When the public is all over one side yet the line is not moving(Carolina game) that usually means that the squares who aren't betting much are all over that one side, but the sharps are pretty much staying off of it(or are divided).When the public is not all over one side yet the line is moving(Baltimore) it usually means that the sharps are all over that one side. As I said in the week 3 betting thread, Baltimore is tremendously undervalued early in the season by the public and smart money is and has been on them.

 

[Assani Fisher]

And again let me say that Minnesota has done nothing to disprove what you thought of them in the preseason: They lost 2 close games in which they were small underdogs. They won a relatively close game(10 points, but a few key plays could've easily gone the other way) in which they were a small favorite.

They were one 1st down away from beating the Colts... a 3rd & 5 that they wouldn't let TJax attempt.

Yes I understand. They were predicted to be a slight underdog against the Colts....probably something around a 45% chance to win/55% chance to lose. If they had won or lost that game in close fashion, it wouldn't have changed my opinion of them. If they had won or lost by a huge margin, it may have changed my perception of them.