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Patriots looking for a 1st and 4th for Garoppolo (3 Viewers)

wikkidpissah said:
Been thru all of the BB QB dumps - knew they were all bums. This kid's got a Cousins floor & a Romo ceiling. If he had took the needle for wk 3, he'd be off the market and it would be 50/50 who BB's 2018 starter would be. Aware of how quickly qbs fall off a cliff @ TB12's age when they finally do, nothing less than a mid 1st, low1 & low3 or 2 2s would get him from me. 
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Odd.

Considering his two games have been ranked at PFF (who grades every play) right next to Kessler and Barkley who both played 3 times as many snaps. At #23+ he already missed his floor.

 
It seems way too rich to give more than a late 1st or 2nd rounder. The contract talk is kind of irrelevant as whichever team trades for him will more than likely already have a negotiated contract in place for him.  

How many teams could be possible suitors for JG? Buffalo, Cleveland, Chicago, SF, NY Jets, Jacksonville or Denver? Am I missing anyone? So many of those teams are in top of the draft, I see no way they would part with that premium pick. 

 
BigSteelThrill said:
Odd.

Considering his two games have been ranked at PFF (who grades every play) right next to Kessler and Barkley who both played 3 times as many snaps. At #23+ he already missed his floor.
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Well the boys @ KickTech - who masturbate to eps of Gruden Camp - say his left elbow metrics compare favorably to Warner's and the bridge of his nose is more quarterbackly than anyone since Staubach. So there -

 
As I posted in another thread, QBs selected top 5 have about a 50% chance of making it in the NFL.  Outside of the top 5, they have about a 10%-15% chance of making it.  There isn't enough sample size to really say what he is.  So if you trade for him, you have gambling on that 10%-15% panning out.  Its a bad gamble.  I think at best I'd give a pick in the middle of round 2, or a 3rd and a 5th.  

It doesn't matter how quarterback needy you are.  The odds of him panning out are so low you cannot give up high picks for him. 

 
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The Patriots took JG near the bottom of round 2 in 2014.  The odds of him panning out are too poor to give a 1st.

A tour of teams and how their QB entered the NFL.  Note that there are the "magical 11" QBs in the past 25 years that were found outside the top 5 picks between rounds 1-3.  Of about the last 65-75 QBs taken in rounds 1-3 outside the top 5, only 11 panned out.

Patriots, Brady - end of the draft super sleeper
Dolphins, Tannehill - one of the magical 11  
Bills, no QB 
Jets, no QB 

Steelers, Roethlisberger - one of the magical 11 
Ravens, Flacco - one of the magical 11 
Bengals, Dalton - one of the magical 11 
Browns, no QB 

Texans, no QB 
Titans, Mariota - top 5 pick 
Colts, Luck - top 5 pick 
Jaguars, no QB 

Chiefs, Smith - top 5 pick
Raiders, Carr - one of the magical 11 
Broncos, no QB 
Chargers, Rivers - top 5 pick 

Cowboys, Prescott - too early to call 
Giants, Manning - top 5 pick 
Redskins, Cousins - one of the magical 11 
Eagles, Wentz - too early to call 

Packers, Rodgers - one of the magical 11 
Lions, Stafford - top 5 pick 
Vikings, no QB 
Bears, no QB 

Falcons, Ryan - top 5 pick 
Buccanneers, Winston - top 5 pick 
Saints, Brees - one of the magical 11 
Panthers, Newton - top 5 pick 

Seahawks, Russell - one of the magical 11 
Cardinals, Palmer - top 5 pick 
Rams, Goff - too early to call 
49ers, no QB 

10 QBs were top 5 picks
9 QBs are part of the magical 11
9 teams have no QB
3 are too early to call
and then we have Brady

5 active QBs in the magical 11 have Super Bowl rings.
1 active QB selected in the top 5 has a super bowl ring (Eli Manning)

The only QBs that are a member of the magical 11 that are not currently active are Dante Culpepper and Bret Favre.  The 1990s was a wasteland for QBs outside the top 5.  

Here are your round 1 QBs in the 1990s outside the top 5:  90 (Ware), 91 (McGwire, Marinovich), 92 (Klinger, Maddox, Brown), 94 (Dilfer), 97 (Druckenmiller), 99 (Culpepper*, McNown).  

Here are the QBs taken in rounds 2-3 in the 1990s: 90 (Hodson, Peter Tom Willis, O'Donnell), 91 (Favre*, Nagle), 92 (Blundin, Sacca), 93 (Billy Joe Hobert), 95 (Todd Collins, Kordell Stewart, Stoney Case, Eric Zeier), 96 (Tony Banks, Bobby Hoying), 97 (Jake Plummer), 98 (Charlie Batch, Johnathan Quinn, Brian Griese), 99 (Shaun King, Brock Huard)

There is one franchise that is a wasteland for QBs:  Cleveland.  They have not had any consistent QB play since Otto Graham.  They find guys who are ok for 2-3 years and then disappear & even that is rare because most are just bad.  Every other franchise has had success at the position.

 
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Using the "Top 5 Overall Pick" vs. "The Field" for QBs, here is how the 50 SB winning QBs played out.

TOP 5 OVERALL PICKS (Won 21 SUPER BOWLS):
Bradshaw, 4 titles, #1 pick overall
Aikman, 3, 1
Peyton, 2, 1
Eli 2, 1
Elway 2, 1
Plunkett 2, 1
Young 1, 1
Namath 1, 1
Morrall 1, 2
Griese 1, 4
McMahon 1, 5
Dawson 1, 5

NOT TOP 5 OVERALL PICKS (Won 29 SUPER BOWLS):
Dilfer 1 title, #6 pick overall
Simms 1, 7
Roethisberger 2, 11
DWilliams 1, 17
Flacco 1, 18
Rodgers 1, 24
Brees 1, 32
Favre 1, 33
Stabler 1, 52
Hostetler 1, 59
Wilson 1, 75
Montana 4, 82
Theismann 1, 99
Unitas 1, 102
Staubach 2, 129
Rypien 1, 146
Brady 4, 199
Starr 2, 200
BJohnson 1, 227
Warner 1, Undrafted

Clearly having a Top 5 overall pick at QB is not a necessity to win the SB. In the past 30 years, there have been 30 QB's drafted 60th or later overall that went on to start 50 games in the NFL. That's basically one drafted each year. That does not include QBs that went undrafted (Warner, Romo, Moon, Delhomme, Garcia, Kitna, etc.)

In the main, spending an early draft pick usually stands a better chance of working out, but one thing to consider is that early draft picks are expected to be a starter (and if they don't work out they can kill a franchise). Guys drafted later on many times are drafted to be a back up or developmental QB and not specifically selected as the go to guy.

 
I meant more as a qb being overvalued (if they get what they're asking for) coming out of a belichek coached team.  Probably not a great comparison though, you're right. 

 
fathermurphy said:
I meant more as a qb being overvalued (if they get what they're asking for) coming out of a belichek coached team.  Probably not a great comparison though, you're right. 
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I get what you are saying and you are probably right. NE grooms QBs to fit their system and that may not always translate in another organization. 

BUT suppose Bill O'Brien gets the axe in Houston, McDaniels becomes the new head coach, and they trade to get Jimmy G. He already knows the system, they have solid skill players already, they have a top WR and some young receivers, they have a Gronk in waiting at TE, they have Miller at RB, and they have a very good defense. Could the Texans take the next step in this scenario? Or will the skeptics say JG is the next Osweiler?

 
flapgreen said:
1 year left.  If someone is trading a high pick,  they're investing in a long-term deal as well. 
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It's not really that different than drafting a rookie since you wouldn't have to wait 4 years to find out if he can play.

If he can't you burned the pick on a failed prospect.

If he can, the difference is that you only get one year of cheap production instead of 2/3 (assuming the QBs you draft don't perform in year one).

But most teams would gladly pay to retain a good QB, and they're hard to find.

I liked JG coming into the league, and I absolutely love what I saw in the game and a half he started vs two good defenses.  Suspect the Pats will either choose to keep him or get paid by a team like the Browns.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Or will the skeptics say JG is the next Osweiler?
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Funny, I was thinking Osweiler when I tried to come up with a comparable situation. I don't think anyone can consistently create the belichek coaching magic - mcD included. I am probably too skeptical - to me Parcells was the ultimate hc and couldn't be duplicated, and then BB unseated him . I guess McD can do the same. Sorry, old man off on a tangent.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
It's not really that different than drafting a rookie since you wouldn't have to wait 4 years to find out if he can play.

If he can't you burned the pick on a failed prospect.

If he can, the difference is that you only get one year of cheap production instead of 2/3 (assuming the QBs you draft don't perform in year one).

But most teams would gladly pay to retain a good QB, and they're hard to find.

I liked JG coming into the league, and I absolutely love what I saw in the game and a half he started vs two good defenses.  Suspect the Pats will either choose to keep him or get paid by a team like the Browns.
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He could end up being good,  but your idea of trading a high pick for him and not signing him to a long-term contract is extremely unlikely, if not impossible.  You would be investing a high draft pick and a big cap number.  That's why I think they won't get anymore than a 2nd at best. 

 
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Yeah... that's probably true.  You could get him cheaper on a per/year basis since he's got a year to go on the rookie deal, but you're right -- you're stuck with him at that point.  So not quite the option I was thinking of.

 
He could be an All-Pro for all I know but it's a huge risk.  I guess if an organization feels certain, go for it.   If you miss,  you're screwed.  I would think a team with an already good roster but no qb would be more likely to go after him. 

 
flapgreen said:
He could end up being good,  but your idea of trading a high pick for him and not signing him to a long-term contract is extremely unlikely, if not impossible.  You would be investing a high draft pick and a big cap number.  That's why I think they won't get anymore than a 2nd at best. 
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I don't think anyone who trades for him will immediately sign him to a long-term deal.  They will watch how he does throughout the year and then assess towards the end of the season.  If he ends up being Brock then you release him.  If he ends up good, you extend him.  You have the Franchise tag in your pocket if he's unwilling to sign.

 
Chaz McNulty said:
I don't think anyone who trades for him will immediately sign him to a long-term deal.  They will watch how he does throughout the year and then assess towards the end of the season.  If he ends up being Brock then you release him.  If he ends up good, you extend him.  You have the Franchise tag in your pocket if he's unwilling to sign.
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That franchise tag means your are fairly likely to lose someone else from your team who you could franchise.  Guess it depends on a team's current overall contract situation. 

Not real sure some team will invest a high pick, not sign him long term, franchise him if he is good enough, and lose another really good player on top of it due to giving JG the franchise tag.

Sorry, not happening.  "IF" he is traded, he is going to sign a longer deal immediately. 

The only way that wouldn't happen is if some team traded like a 4th for him, which also isn't happening.

 
Dont think its really debateable even with the handful of simple offenses helmed by a game manage, that losing a piece to find a starting QB is always worth it.

Dont think its much of a risk as much as it is the cost of doing business.

 
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So if you are the Pats and think JG will be a franchise QB (whatever the means), then what do you do with him? You can keep him for cheap next year. Then what? Assume Brady plays 3 more years after 2016.

JG is not going to sign for back up money. Franchise him? Rinse and repeat the next year. Franchise him again?

Now you have had him for 6 years on the bench and paid him over $50 million to not play.  Even stupid teams wouldn't do that, let alone smart ones. 

Sure, I get that Brady might not play three more years or he could get hurt or his play could fall off a cliff like Max Kellerman promises. 

But NE also likes Brissett, so they are going to end up keeping three guys and shelling out all that money?

 
Anarchy99 said:
In the main, spending an early draft pick usually stands a better chance of working out, but one thing to consider is that early draft picks are expected to be a starter (and if they don't work out they can kill a franchise). Guys drafted later on many times are drafted to be a back up or developmental QB and not specifically selected as the go to guy.
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I'm not so sure it kills a franchise.  The 49ers arugably blew the Alex Smith pick, but they went the super bowl anyway because they had Jim Harbaugh as head coach.

 
Riversco said:
I'm not so sure it kills a franchise.  The 49ers arugably blew the Alex Smith pick, but they went the super bowl anyway because they had Jim Harbaugh as head coach.
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I think you're giving Harbaugh way too much credit here. He had very little to do with the awesome defense they assembled in SF, but he sure did benefit from it. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
So if you are the Pats and think JG will be a franchise QB (whatever the means), then what do you do with him? You can keep him for cheap next year. Then what? Assume Brady plays 3 more years after 2016.

JG is not going to sign for back up money. Franchise him? Rinse and repeat the next year. Franchise him again?

Now you have had him for 6 years on the bench and paid him over $50 million to not play.  Even stupid teams wouldn't do that, let alone smart ones. 

Sure, I get that Brady might not play three more years or he could get hurt or his play could fall off a cliff like Max Kellerman promises. 

But NE also likes Brissett, so they are going to end up keeping three guys and shelling out all that money?
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Win the SB this year and trade Brady for 3. 1st round picks 

 
Anarchy99 said:
So if you are the Pats and think JG will be a franchise QB (whatever the means), then what do you do with him? You can keep him for cheap next year. Then what? Assume Brady plays 3 more years after 2016.

JG is not going to sign for back up money. Franchise him? Rinse and repeat the next year. Franchise him again?

Now you have had him for 6 years on the bench and paid him over $50 million to not play.  Even stupid teams wouldn't do that, let alone smart ones. 

Sure, I get that Brady might not play three more years or he could get hurt or his play could fall off a cliff like Max Kellerman promises. 

But NE also likes Brissett, so they are going to end up keeping three guys and shelling out all that money?
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Imagine if the Packers had moved Aaron Rodgers for a 1st and a 4th in order to stick out a few more years with a 38 year old Brett Favre that was coming off a good season.

You don't give up another decade+ of good QB play to ride out a few more seasons of the twilight of someone's career that could take a severe downturn at any second.  If the Pats trade Jimmy (Brady will be about to turn 41 by the time his contract is up) then it means that they don't think he is that guy, plain as day.

 
osubuckeyeman said:
The first thing you do is exactly what you said and keep him for cheap. The market won't change that much in one year and your not losing a thing by keeping him except some leverage. Can still trade him prior to the deadline. My guess is that could shrink the market for JG a little, but a good deal still could be done.

I don't think Brady plays 3 more years and if he does, then not for the Patriots. The decision to move on from Brady if you feel that Garoppolo is that good would be the right course of action. I don't think anyone knows for sure how the Patriots feel about Garoppolo, but if they do feel like he is Brady's successor then you make that decision at the end of 2017. The cards are in Belicheck's hands right now, but he has to show his hand by the end of 2017. We will know how they feel about JG no later than that.  Brissett is not a immediate concern and the Pats did not spend a lot to get him and he is pretty cheap to keep either way.  The truth right now is know one knows all the facts except the Patriots and they might not even be a 100% sure. My humble opinion is they keep him. You do make valid points especially if they really like Brissett and you can find a team able and willing to give up a king's ransom. 

The Patriots have those options you mentioned about franchising JG if they chose and I agree that they would not do that. The decision would be far more likely to move on from Brady. 
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? the market completely changes after a year. Garrapolo's a free agent and he ain't gonna stick around for no money.

 
Dedfin said:
Maybe you are being flippant, but I think that would be a perfect move for the team.
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Call me crazy but I wouldn't rule out them moving Brady and keeping JG seeing how they have a history of letting older players go a year or two early as opposed to having them decline.

 
ROCKET said:
Call me crazy but I wouldn't rule out them moving Brady and keeping JG seeing how they have a history of letting older players go a year or two early as opposed to having them decline.
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I think most would say Brady has immunity from that type of policy.  I suppose it depends on how long BB plans on staying with NE too, right?

 
BB would trade his mother.  But the Kraft's would be unlikely to trade the most popular player in the history of the franchise, ESPECIALLY if TB12 is showing ZERO decline and the team is winning.

That being said, it would be unlikely that JG would be in the same stratosphere as Brady, so the smart way to look at him is that he could be a decent multi-year starter in the NFL as his upside. Having aspirations higher than that should most likely be reserved for first overall draft picks.

 
QUick question on a "trade and sign"........what sort of money would JB even be commanding right now in a contract extension?

That one year left where he makes almost nothing is definitely a factor, so he would not get nearly as much as he would if he was simply a FA. 

I can't see a team trade a lot for him if the contract HAS to be a big one.  On the flip side, I can't see (at least shouldnt see) JG turn down a fairly lucrative contract to stay in NE for another year making no money with no idea what the future would hold after the 2017 season. 

 
 I don't think Kraft or Belichick will ever trade Brady. This isn't about winning the most games in 2020, it's about legacy. They are arguably the best owner/coach/qb combination in nfl history, and another title would make it very difficult to argue otherwise. No amount of cap room is worth that unique opportunity. And Brady doesn't even hold them over a barrel to max out his cap value. I wouldn't trade Brady for any qb in the league if I were them - his value to the franchise is actually more than a young stud qb's.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
If McDaniels goes to SF with complete control as is rumored, what are the chances they get Garapolo for the 1.02 only? 
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No one says it has to be a 2017 pick. And no one says they can't get creative.

For example, Pats 2017 first, Pats 2018 third, and Jimmy G for 2017 SF first and 2018 SF third. (Essentially, they would switch draft spots in the the first this year and the third next year.)

Knowing BB, he might not even want the #2 pick in the draft. 

 
Riversco said:
Hooper31 said:
I think you're giving Harbaugh way too much credit here. He had very little to do with the awesome defense they assembled in SF, but he sure did benefit from it. 
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Harbaugh wins whereever he goes.
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So did Chip Kelly. Until he didn't win anymore.

Harbaugh was 17-19 in his first 3 years at Stanford, and went 12-1 in his final year thanks in large part to a bunch of seniors who had been recruited by the previous coach (including Doug Baldwin, Coby Fleener, and Richard Sherman). And it didn't hurt that he just happened to have a once-in-a-generation quarterback on the team.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I disagree with this - it is higher than zero. 

Not a lot,  but definitely higher. 

I could definitely see SF giving  NEP the 1st and maybe a later pick for him. 

If I were the Niners I would. 
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Zero.  Only way it isn't zero is if Brady gets hurt and JG takes them to 3 nice wins and a title, while playing well the whole time.  Even then it would be close to zero.

 
Anarchy99 said:
BB would trade his mother.  But the Kraft's would be unlikely to trade the most popular player in the history of the franchise, ESPECIALLY if TB12 is showing ZERO decline and the team is winning.

That being said, it would be unlikely that JG would be in the same stratosphere as Brady, so the smart way to look at him is that he could be a decent multi-year starter in the NFL as his upside. Having aspirations higher than that should most likely be reserved for first overall draft picks.
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Yes, like future hall of famer Jared Goff.

This year Goff learned how to take a snap from under center ...AND how to call a play in the huddle. Both of which he had never done before.

How is Goff more of an asset than Garopollo?

Those that don't think Garopollo is worth a 1st is thinking like a fantasy football manager. I bet the Rams would gladly flip Goff, last years 1.01, for Garopollo right now.

 
Anarchy99 said:
JG was a second round pick to begin with. So doing very well in limited opportunity, playing behind a HOF QB and a HOF coach for 3 years, on the team with the most wins since he entered the league, with a year left on his contract for peanuts, nets them a pick only a few spots higher than where they drafted him? That makes little to no sense.
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What does being behind a HOF mean?  The sports world is permeated with former players who were behind HOfers on the depth chart?  Let's not validate JG's potential by saying he sat behind a HOFer. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
QUick question on a "trade and sign"........what sort of money would JB even be commanding right now in a contract extension?

That one year left where he makes almost nothing is definitely a factor, so he would not get nearly as much as he would if he was simply a FA. 

I can't see a team trade a lot for him if the contract HAS to be a big one.  On the flip side, I can't see (at least shouldnt see) JG turn down a fairly lucrative contract to stay in NE for another year making no money with no idea what the future would hold after the 2017 season. 
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Well, consider the logic of a big trade. What player is worth a big trade return, but not worth a big contract for his position?

Any team that trades a lot for a QB is planning on having that player for the foreseeable future, and what kind of leverage do they have in negotiations? 'Hey your contract expires after this season, and we traded a small fortune for you, but we think you should sign a prove it deal...'

That scenario only works if you buy the theory posted by a few in here that a 1st round pick is no big deal, and a team would just trade one away to take a look for a season, then decide.

I don't buy that theory personally.

 
the irony of the JG situation(in regards to this board) is that the same guys  who are arguing that he's worth a stone cold 1st + would be downplaying his contract value if the Pats were to actually keep him as their QB of the future.

 
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