Patriots looking for a 1st and 4th for Garoppolo (1 Viewer)

[ghostguy123]

Why? Do you find fault with how things turned out with the careers of Prescott, Wilson, Dalton, Brady, or Romo?

Or would you rather have spent your first round pick on the likes of Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, RGIII, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Blake Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, etc. The list of first round busts runs pretty long.

I believe he is saying that you listed a bunch of QBs who went in rounds 3-5 of the NFL draft that are starting in the NFL right now, so why would teams spend the draft equivalent of a mid-high 1st round pick AND pay a large contract when they can just try and draft someone themselves, maybe in the 2nd or 3rd or 4th round of the draft.  Much cheaper to attain with a much cheaper contract.  You just listed a bunch of guys who fit that description.

If JG was some sort of sure thing then yeah, teams would probably lineup.  He isn't close to being any sort of sure thing.  He looks promising, I will give you that, but far from a sure thing.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think people are getting hung over the "back up" label being affixed to Garoppolo's forehead. Had he been drafted by another team, he could easily have been starting someplace else by now.

JG was the 5th QB taken around the league. Looking at other quarterbacks in the league right now, here's where there were pick up . . .

Prescott (8th QB taken in his draft)
Siemian (7th)
Wilson (6th)
Cousins (8th)
Dalton (5th)
Taylor (11th)
Brady (7th)
Romo (Undrafted)
Fitzpatrick (14th)
Cassel (13th)
Osweiler (5th)
Kaepernick (6th)

That's a decent amount of players that were picked up later (looking only at QB slot not actual draft slot) than Garoppolo. Not all of them worked out long-term, but enough of them did to say that QB's don't have to be one of the top guys in a particular draft to still do well. 

This post.

This is a great argument as to why teams should NOT trade a lot for JG. 

But that isn't your argument................

 

[ghostguy123]

There is a profound lack of logic going on in this thread.

You got that right.  Coming from both sides of this argument. 

 

[Interseptopus]

I don't blame NE for trying to get the most out of their investment when they seem pretty set to move on from JG since they feel Brady can play for much longer. IMO there is greater risk associated with JG than with drafting a QB in this draft. I don't blame a team such as Houston for going for JG (and I think they should). But I would be confused as to why someone like CLE would go for this guy. I don't get paid to make those decisions and it's probably a good thing. 

Kind of an absurd argument. I kind of wish he'd just be traded already so we can end this. For every QB drafted round 2 who was successful there's a QB drafted round 5. And vice versa. No one knows how good JG will be when he gets a chance to be a starter someday. Arguing that this QB was successful or this one wasn't is just a waste of time. We might as well start a debate on reasons why NE will or will not go 16-0 next season because that kind of discussion is just as useless. Time wasting. 

Bottom line, if it was that easy to predict if a player would be successful as a starting QB, no QB would bust. Best of luck to whomever lands JG. For their sake I hope he works out, except if he ends up in CHI. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

When teams have moved on from HOF QB's, any and all of the following have usually happened:

- They were hurt and couldn't stay on the field
- Their numbers were well below league average
- The team was no longer winning

Knock on wood, Brady currently has none of those issues. All of those certainly could materialize, even in unison. But for right now, none of those appear imminent in the short term.

Montana going to KC in favor of Young in SF comes immediately to mind.  GB also elected to go with Rodgers given the choice of losing him or Favre.

.

 

[Warhogs]

It seems I have heard a fair amount of talk about this QB draft class being pretty weak.  I don't spend any time doing my own draft analysis.  For that reason alone though I can see a team willing to part with say an early round 2 pick in a package and going with Jimmy G.

 

[Anarchy99]

I kind of wish he'd just be traded already so we can end this. 

He can't get traded until the NFL opens business for the 2017 season in March.

 

[Thunderlips]

Not to be a wise-### but it is easy to say that if your job is not on the line which Fox's most definitely is and as much as Cleveland may like Jackson if he doesn't get the QB position squared away they are looking at another horrific year and if they don't have a QB the possibility of another one in 2018...whether it is Jimmy G or someone else these teams need to get some type of stability at that position or there will be coaches and GMs getting the pink slip...

Fair point.....GMs and Coaches usually don't like to leave stuff on the table for the next guy.  As far as CLE goes though, I was under the impression that Podesta wasn't interested in the quick fix....that he actually has a longer term plan in place. 

 

[Boston]

Yes, that's pretty much the basis of my position.  Garopollo is too much of an unknown even for NE.  Otherwise they do not get rid of him, they do the unthinkable and move on from Brady.  That's just good business under the circumstances.  It's happened before with other teams.

Was that QB coming off of a Super Bowl MVP performance as well as being a serious candidate for regular season MVP and not showing any sign of age?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Montana going to KC in favor of Young in SF comes immediately to mind.  GB also elected to go with Rodgers given the choice of losing him or Favre.

.

Montana was starting to break down physically his last years in SF - but he did turn around and perform well in KC.

The Favre situation has already been addressed and it's not as simple as you state.

These examples are really not even worth discussing however, as they are really not irrelevant to what is happening and what will happen.

 

[Hankmoody]

From Garoppolo's perspective, he believes he has a long-term future as an NFL starter, why would he sign a new deal for low dollars. I don't know what the "going rate" for a starting NFL QB is these days, but if he thinks he is worth $18 million a year, I doubt he signs an extension for low end dollars. No matter where he plays, by not signing anything he would be in line for $23 million for one season if he is franchised. So folks thinking he will sign a team friendly deal (with NE or anywhere else for that matter) at 3 years for $25 million total are nuts.

Because he makes more money in the long term.  He's scheduled to make $900k this year.  If he wants $18M for the next 2 years, that's $36.  Signing a 3 year, $39M deal is still making more money, but that's a team-friendly deal because it averages much less.  Basically the team is taking the benefit of the cheap 2017 and spreading that out over the life of the contract and JG is still getting exactly what he "wants". 

There is also no guarantee he even gets the $18M.  What if Brady gets suspended again and he stinks it up in his 3 relief games before getting his shoulder crushed again?  You think anyone's going to offer him "market" value?  Now he might be sitting there in 2018 facing a 1-2 year "prove it" deal for $4-$10M and will be looking at under $11M through 2018.  Maybe he should have taken that 3 year $39M "team friendly" deal that Cleveland was hypothetically offering him in March of 2017.  Risk mitigation.

He's not a UFA yet.  There are two reasons right there why he won't demand full UFA money - he doesn't have the leverage to do so.

 

[Anarchy99]

Because he makes more money in the long term.  He's scheduled to make $900k this year.  If he wants $18M for the next 2 years, that's $72.  Signing a 3 year, $39M deal is still making more money, but that's a team-friendly deal because it averages much less.  Basically the team is taking the benefit of the cheap 2017 and spreading that out over the life of the contract and JG is still getting exactly what he "wants". 

There is also no guarantee he even gets the $18M.  What if Brady gets suspended again and he stinks it up in his 3 relief games before getting his shoulder crushed again?  You think anyone's going to offer him "market" value?  Now he might be sitting there in 2018 facing a 1-2 year "prove it" deal for $4-$10M and will be looking at under $11M through 2018.  Maybe he should have taken that 3 year $39M "team friendly" deal that Cleveland was hypothetically offering him in March of 2017.  Risk mitigation.

He's not a UFA yet.  There are two reasons right there why he won't demand full UFA money - he doesn't have the leverage to do so.

There are 20 quarterbacks scheduled to have a $16 million cap hit next y ear (they all won't have jobs or get that). Of players on their second deal or later, Brady is the lowest at $14 million. RGIII falls in a category of his own, seeing that he lost his job, got cut, and was trying to salvage his career. Bottom line, there are 23 guys in the $14M+ category. There are 10 playing on rookie contracts. Based on that, it's hard to see taking less than $14 million a year and even at that, it would make him the lowest paid starter on a second contract (ie an extension).

 

[Hankmoody]

I had a typo in there, but you aren't comprehending what I"m saying.

He can earn $900k this year and $18M (your number) each of the next two years for a total of $36.9M through 2019

Or he can sign a contract for three years (beginning now) and earn $39M through 2019

Which would you do?

 

[Anarchy99]

So you didn't read my post.

I did. The math was confusing.

If part of a trade hinges on JG signing a new deal / extension, as some people here are suggesting, I don't see him agreeing to a contract that makes him the lowest paid non-rookie deal QB.

 

[Anarchy99]

Getting back to Brady for a minute, over the past three seasons, Brady ranks #1 in passer rating (yes, even better than Rodgers . . . 103.1 vs. 102.8). The Pats have gone 42-10 (.808) in the regular season and playoffs with Brady at the helm. They have won 2 Super Bowls in that time.

If we collectively are in agreement that those numbers are likely to start declining . . . what does that translate to? NE going 9-7 or 6-10? Brady putting up 20 TD to 22 INT? Brady posting a 70 passer rating? Does he wake up in Ryan Fitzgerald's body?

What are people seeing with NE over the next 3 seasons . . . in terms of Brady's stat line and the team's record each year? For example . . .

2017 10-6 record, 3900/25/15 (1 and done in playoffs)
2018 9-7 record, 3600/22/17 (miss playoffs)
2019 5-4 record, 1500/13/11 and hurt for almost half the season (miss playoffs)

 

[Hankmoody]

I did. The math was confusing.

If part of a trade hinges on JG signing a new deal / extension, as some people here are suggesting, I don't see him agreeing to a contract that makes him the lowest paid non-rookie deal QB.

Why not?  He's proven less than any of them have.

No one's giving him franchise money, and he'd be dumb to start for $900k for one year.  There will be a compromise.

 

[Interseptopus]

I did. The math was confusing.

If part of a trade hinges on JG signing a new deal / extension, as some people here are suggesting, I don't see him agreeing to a contract that makes him the lowest paid non-rookie deal QB.

Why not?  He's proven less than any of them have.

No one's giving him franchise money, and he'd be dumb to start for $900k for one year.  There will be a compromise.

This is one of the few things I actually agree with Anarchy on. And this is exactly why I think a rookie is less risk that JG 

So let's add this up. A team has to give up at least a 1st round pick, AND sign JG to a risky long term contract that could backfire in their faces big time and set their franchise back years. Anyone seeing the risk outweighing the reward here yet? 

I think there needs to be a compromise. A team could sign him to a deal that would pay him maybe 6 million in 17 and 8-9 million in 18 and then he could get paid big after he proves that he's worth holding onto. I think that makes the most sense. If any team signs him to an Osweiler like deal, which is what JG apparently wants, and he fails to produce then they deserve all of the problems that come along with that kind of a non-deserving contract. 

 

[ghostguy123]

I did. The math was confusing.

If part of a trade hinges on JG signing a new deal / extension, as some people here are suggesting, I don't see him agreeing to a contract that makes him the lowest paid non-rookie deal QB.

Then you simply dont understand his current situation.

If he signs a 4 year deal for 50 million, he would really be signing a deal for 3 years and 49 million.

And he woul be doing it before something horrible could potentially happen.

Whats not to understand?

 

[Thunderlips]

Getting back to Brady for a minute, over the past three seasons, Brady ranks #1 in passer rating (yes, even better than Rodgers . . . 103.1 vs. 102.8). The Pats have gone 42-10 (.808) in the regular season and playoffs with Brady at the helm. They have won 2 Super Bowls in that time.

If we collectively are in agreement that those numbers are likely to start declining . . . what does that translate to? NE going 9-7 or 6-10? Brady putting up 20 TD to 22 INT? Brady posting a 70 passer rating? Does he wake up in Ryan Fitzgerald's body?

What are people seeing with NE over the next 3 seasons . . . in terms of Brady's stat line and the team's record each year? For example . . .

2017 10-6 record, 3900/25/15 (1 and done in playoffs)
2018 9-7 record, 3600/22/17 (miss playoffs)
2019 5-4 record, 1500/13/11 and hurt for almost half the season (miss playoffs)

I don't know if Bradys style of play would resort to him falling of a cliff.......barring injury of course.

That being said, I think its more about BB continuing to bring in players who believe and work within the system and who can execute said system.  Not saying he'd turn down the chance to get a Julio Jones caliber player or augment his game plan to include a high level sheer physical talent.

 

[Anarchy99]

Then you simply dont understand his current situation.

I doubt Garappolo jumps from one bad contract into another. His situation in NE is such that he would have to play one more season to cash in (whether that means a franchise deal or a signing elsewhere as a free agent).

If he gets traded and signs a multi-year, team friendly deal (while likely still asked to play next years for $900K), if he signs a multi-year, team friendly deal deal he may not get a chance to ever get a chance at a fair market contract. Say he signs a 5-year extension on top of his remaining year on his rookie deal. That's 6 total years. If he played out that contract, he'd be 32 and looking for another contract.

The what's-in-it-for-the-new-team component is getting him for a year at essentially minimum wage. Signing a 5 year, $65 million extension would turn into a 6 year, $66 million contract when adding in his last year of his current deal. Sure, that's "better" than he has now, but that could end up costing him tens of millions of dollars.

If he did sign a new deal for a lot less than market pricing and did end up being a top QB, he'd be heading to Year Two demanding more money. Maybe that means JG plays hardball and doesn't sign an extension with a new team immediately and that means a trade with that team falls through. And maybe that means he goes back to NE and watches Brady all season again. That could end up helping him more than going to a new locale and risk not playing well. If he were to stay with the Pats, he potentially could end up a free agent and free to sign anywhere.

 

[Bossman]

Unfortunately the Patriots found Brady's replacement about 3 years too early. 

If Brady announced his retirement after the Super Bowl, there is no way on earth the Patriots would consider parting with JG.

 

[ghostguy123]

I doubt Garappolo jumps from one bad contract into another. His situation in NE is such that he would have to play one more season to cash in (whether that means a franchise deal or a signing elsewhere as a free agent).

If he gets traded and signs a multi-year, team friendly deal (while likely still asked to play next years for $900K), if he signs a multi-year, team friendly deal deal he may not get a chance to ever get a chance at a fair market contract. Say he signs a 5-year extension on top of his remaining year on his rookie deal. That's 6 total years. If he played out that contract, he'd be 32 and looking for another contract.

The what's-in-it-for-the-new-team component is getting him for a year at essentially minimum wage. Signing a 5 year, $65 million extension would turn into a 6 year, $66 million contract when adding in his last year of his current deal. Sure, that's "better" than he has now, but that could end up costing him tens of millions of dollars.

If he did sign a new deal for a lot less than market pricing and did end up being a top QB, he'd be heading to Year Two demanding more money. Maybe that means JG plays hardball and doesn't sign an extension with a new team immediately and that means a trade with that team falls through. And maybe that means he goes back to NE and watches Brady all season again. That could end up helping him more than going to a new locale and risk not playing well. If he were to stay with the Pats, he potentially could end up a free agent and free to sign anywhere.

And what would it cost him if he sucks this year or gets hurt?

Lesser than market value now is not "bad" in his situation.

 

[Anarchy99]

Then JG should sign a two year extension at fair market value (whatever that is). If we say that is $18M a year, then essentially his new team would have him for 3 years at a total of $37 million. That gets the new team a guy for three years at reasonable dollars while getting JG some additional money with a chance to still get a larger deal sooner. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Then JG should sign a two year extension at fair market value (whatever that is). If we say that is $18M a year, then essentially his new team would have him for 3 years at a total of $37 million. That gets the new team a guy for three years at reasonable dollars while getting JG some additional money with a chance to still get a larger deal sooner. 

18 million a year!? 

Fair Market puts him in the realm of super bowl winners Big Ben, Wilson, Drew Brees? The guy has only won a game or two... 

IMO fair market value is Carson Wentz, Goff, Bortles, RGIII. Roughly 6-8 million. If he wants 18 million for his accomplishments carrying a clipboard for Tom Brady he may just find himself carrying that same clipboard again next season. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

18 million a year!? 

Fair Market puts him in the realm of super bowl winners Big Ben, Wilson, Drew Brees? The guy has only won a game or two... 

IMO fair market value is Carson Wentz, Goff, Bortles, RGIII. Roughly 6-8 million. If he wants 18 million for his accomplishments carrying a clipboard for Tom Brady he may just find himself carrying that same clipboard again next season. 

You can't use Wentz and Goff in your example because they are on their rookie contracts.

 

[Interseptopus]

You can't use Wentz and Goff in your example because they are on their rookie contracts.

I am using them as examples because they will be making 6 million this upcoming season (I went off of Anarchy's list on the previous page). I think that's about what a team should pay JG. Wentz and Goff are "proving" themselves worthy of extensions just as much as JG is this upcoming season. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Then JG should sign a two year extension at fair market value (whatever that is). If we say that is $18M a year, then essentially his new team would have him for 3 years at a total of $37 million. That gets the new team a guy for three years at reasonable dollars while getting JG some additional money with a chance to still get a larger deal sooner. 

Or, or.............he could sign a longer deal, get more in guaranteed money, and still be in line for a nice payday assuming he is playing well. 

It benefits JG to sign a 5 year deal (including 2017, so 4 year extension) at a slightly less than market value rate, while factoring in the low wage is it set to make in 2017.  For example, say he could get a 4 year 80 million dollar deal right now.  It would benefit him greatly IMO to sign a 5 year deal for maybe 65 million before this season.  If he wanted to keep it at 4 total years, then something like a 4 year deal for 50 million. 

That also benefits the team signing him because he will count a lot less towards the cap from say 2018-2021 if they do the contract now rather than later. 

If a team waits till next year to sign him they lose the value of the lesser cap number.  Sure, he could suck it up or get injured this year, but that is why a team will frontload the deal so it won't kill them 3 years from now if JG sucks.

If you are JG, are you telling me you REALLY wouldn't want to sign a mega deal right now because you MIGHT be able to sign a bigger mega deal a year early like 3-4 years from now, and accept all the risk that goes with that?

 

[ghostguy123]

I am using them as examples because they will be making 6 million this upcoming season (I went off of Anarchy's list on the previous page). I think that's about what a team should pay JG. Wentz and Goff are "proving" themselves worthy of extensions just as much as JG is this upcoming season. 

????  If JG was an UFA right now he would be getting close to that 18 million.  Doesnt matter if he is truly worth it or not, he would get it.

 

[Anarchy99]

Or, or.............he could sign a longer deal, get more in guaranteed money, and still be in line for a nice payday assuming he is playing well. 

It benefits JG to sign a 5 year deal (including 2017, so 4 year extension) at a slightly less than market value rate, while factoring in the low wage is it set to make in 2017.  For example, say he could get a 4 year 80 million dollar deal right now.  It would benefit him greatly IMO to sign a 5 year deal for maybe 65 million before this season.  If he wanted to keep it at 4 total years, then something like a 4 year deal for 50 million. 

That also benefits the team signing him because he will count a lot less towards the cap from say 2018-2021 if they do the contract now rather than later. 

If a team waits till next year to sign him they lose the value of the lesser cap number.  Sure, he could suck it up or get injured this year, but that is why a team will frontload the deal so it won't kill them 3 years from now if JG sucks.

If you are JG, are you telling me you REALLY wouldn't want to sign a mega deal right now because you MIGHT be able to sign a bigger mega deal a year early like 3-4 years from now, and accept all the risk that goes with that?

Signing a 4-5 year extension somewhat limits what Garoppolo can do after that contract. He would be 31 or 32 once he was done with his new deal. And while some may scoff at $18 million a year as fair market value, the market is only escalating. In a few years, with the salary cap going up, $18 million could look like a bargain. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Signing a 4-5 year extension somewhat limits what Garoppolo can do after that contract. He would be 31 or 32 once he was done with his new deal. And while some may scoff at $18 million a year as fair market value, the market is only escalating. In a few years, with the salary cap going up, $18 million could look like a bargain. 

You seem to only be looking at the pros and none of the cons here. 

Any little bit of common sense tell me if I was in position, I would welcome an insane amount of riches rather than MAYBE getting a more insane amount of riches.

But that's just me

 

[ghostguy123]

Not to mention, any team trading for him is going to be looking at a 4 or 5 year deal as well, and if JG is not willing to do that, I could see that being a deal breaker.  Hence, no trade.   That is NOT what JG wants.  As I said before, it is GREATLY in JG's best interest to get traded and sign a deal now rather than waiting till 2018, for the reasons that have been mentioned many times now. 

SImply put, JG has zero leverage to "Cash-in" right now. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Garoppolo stands to make money by doing absolutely nothing. If he refuses to sign an extension with NW or any of the other 31 franchises, he may just end up staying with the Patriots. Ed Werder had a report today saying he thinks JG sticks with NE regardless (as does Peter King). I suppose there is some chance he would play some in NE in 2017. If he does, the odds are he would do pretty well. Then his stock only goes up. The worst case outcome is he is forced to play for the Pats and pukes on his shoes (which I doubt would happen).

This gets us to what happens a year from now. The Pats could franchise him for a year (worth $22-23M) or he hits free agency (at which point the sky is the limit). Let's say he gets traded and signs a 5 year, $40 million extension with $20 million guaranteed. That guaranteed money could end up being over 4 years and could easily be LESS than the guaranteed money by getting franchised (and he would only have to play one year to get it).

None of this situation screams simple. It could all get rather complicated.

 

[ghostguy123]

Garoppolo stands to make money by doing absolutely nothing. If he refuses to sign an extension with NW or any of the other 31 franchises, he may just end up staying with the Patriots. Ed Werder had a report today saying he thinks JG sticks with NE regardless (as does Peter King). I suppose there is some chance he would play some in NE in 2017. If he does, the odds are he would do pretty well. Then his stock only goes up. The worst case outcome is he is forced to play for the Pats and pukes on his shoes (which I doubt would happen).

This gets us to what happens a year from now. The Pats could franchise him for a year (worth $22-23M) or he hits free agency (at which point the sky is the limit). Let's say he gets traded and signs a 5 year, $40 million extension with $20 million guaranteed. That guaranteed money could end up being over 4 years and could easily be LESS than the guaranteed money by getting franchised (and he would only have to play one year to get it).

None of this situation screams simple. It could all get rather complicated.

The simple part, as I stated, is that he is not going to "cash in" right now. 

As for your idea that his stock would go up if he stays in New England this year, well, it might.  It might also drop like a rock if he gets injured or sucks.  Both very realistic possibilities. 

This is the last time I am going to say this cause if you don't understand it by now you never will.  It is in JG's best interest to sign a long term deal this offseason. 

If he wants to bet on himself, or if you would bet on yourself that is fine.  Just understand the enormous amount of needless risk that is.  We got three options here.  JG sucks or gets hurt and is stuck with what he has now, which is maybe a million bucks on the bank, JG has about 30-40 million in the bank over the next 4-5 years, or JG has about 50-60 million in the bank over the next 4-5 years.  One of these options comes with no risk and a lifetime of riches.  Gee, real hard decision.

 

[Saboo]

Some local reports claim that the Browns have put the #12 pick in play and would be willing to give other consideration (perhaps a pick next year or a player) for Garoppolo. The Bears are interested as well. If the Browns rumors are true, the Bears would have to be willing to part with the #3 pick to acquire Jimmy G or perhaps deal that #3 pick for multiple picks and then offer the Patriots a #1 and other choices.

Anyway you look at it both the Patriots and Garoppolo are great positions.

 

[ghostguy123]

Some local reports claim that the Browns have put the #12 pick in play and would be willing to give other consideration (perhaps a pick next year or a player) for Garoppolo. The Bears are interested as well. If the Browns rumors are true, the Bears would have to be willing to part with the #3 pick to acquire Jimmy G or perhaps deal that #3 pick for multiple picks and then offer the Patriots a #1 and other choices.

Anyway you look at it both the Patriots and Garoppolo are great positions.

I live in Cleveland and listen to the local sports talk a lot.  Have not heard one time that pick 12 is in play. 

Only thing close I have heard is that a couple of the radio personalities and/or reporters WANT them to pick pick 12 in play. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Hell, a couple of them want to draft a QB at pick 1 AND trade pick 12 for JG.

Dumbest crap I ever heard. 

 

[Anarchy99]

The simple part, as I stated, is that he is not going to "cash in" right now. 

As for your idea that his stock would go up if he stays in New England this year, well, it might.  It might also drop like a rock if he gets injured or sucks.  Both very realistic possibilities. 

This is the last time I am going to say this cause if you don't understand it by now you never will.  It is in JG's best interest to sign a long term deal this offseason. 

If he wants to bet on himself, or if you would bet on yourself that is fine.  Just understand the enormous amount of needless risk that is.  We got three options here.  JG sucks or gets hurt and is stuck with what he has now, which is maybe a million bucks on the bank, JG has about 30-40 million in the bank over the next 4-5 years, or JG has about 50-60 million in the bank over the next 4-5 years.  One of these options comes with no risk and a lifetime of riches.  Gee, real hard decision.

I don't disagree with the get rich or richer element, but we are lay people and not professional athletes or agents. And I think the math here makes a difference.

Clearly there are a lot of variables and potential outcomes including one which has not been discussed . . . a team trading for Garoppolo and paying him top dollar (5 year extension for $100M with $45M guaranteed). Adding his existing year on his contract, a team would have JG locked up for 6 years at $101 million ($16.8 million a year).

Sure, that may seem crazy, but the Texans gave Osweiler $18 million a year and the Bills gave Tyrod Taylor over $15M a year last off-season. The Bears gave JAY CUTLER $18.1M with $56M guaranteed a couple of years ago and he had an established track record . . . for losing (only 2 winning seasons in 9 years at the time). Sam Bradford had an equally mediocre career and got 2 years and $36M out of MIN with $26M guaranteed . . . with multiple injuries and no winning seasons under his belt.

I could go on and on. The fact of the matter is, NFL teams pay QBs handsomely and many times overpay. But I would ponderand debate which is better served for an NFL team: signing a guy with a history of losing, making stupid mistakes, and being mediocre - OR - signing a guy without the baggage and poor performance and who comes with less of a track record but could turn out better in the long run.

I similar question could be asked about NFL head coached, as more and more teams are hiring unproven coordinators and getting away from recycling prior coaches. That may be mirrored in teams with QB's. That would be hard to prove or disprove, but something to think about. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Some local reports claim that the Browns have put the #12 pick in play and would be willing to give other consideration (perhaps a pick next year or a player) for Garoppolo. The Bears are interested as well. If the Browns rumors are true, the Bears would have to be willing to part with the #3 pick to acquire Jimmy G or perhaps deal that #3 pick for multiple picks and then offer the Patriots a #1 and other choices.

Anyway you look at it both the Patriots and Garoppolo are great positions.

What's the saying . . . Rome Wasn't Built In A Day? I am sure the Patriots would happily entertain draft picks in future seasons as well. I would bet they would be glad to trade JG for the Bears 2017 second rounder and their 2018 first rounder.

BB once traded Richard Seymour for a first round pick TWO YEARS later (which they selected OT Nate Solder who has been a starter every year since). 

It's Bill Belichick. He'd take the Bears 2nd and 3rd this year and next for JG . . . and he'd probably convert those into 12 picks spread out over 5 seasons.

 

[Hankmoody]

Then JG should sign a two year extension at fair market value (whatever that is). If we say that is $18M a year, then essentially his new team would have him for 3 years at a total of $37 million. That gets the new team a guy for three years at reasonable dollars while getting JG some additional money with a chance to still get a larger deal sooner. 

I literally said that two hours ago. 

 

[Hankmoody]

Garoppolo stands to make money by doing absolutely nothing. If he refuses to sign an extension with NW or any of the other 31 franchises, he may just end up staying with the Patriots. Ed Werder had a report today saying he thinks JG sticks with NE regardless (as does Peter King). I suppose there is some chance he would play some in NE in 2017. If he does, the odds are he would do pretty well. Then his stock only goes up. The worst case outcome is he is forced to play for the Pats and pukes on his shoes (which I doubt would happen).

This gets us to what happens a year from now. The Pats could franchise him for a year (worth $22-23M) or he hits free agency (at which point the sky is the limit). Let's say he gets traded and signs a 5 year, $40 million extension with $20 million guaranteed. That guaranteed money could end up being over 4 years and could easily be LESS than the guaranteed money by getting franchised (and he would only have to play one year to get it).

None of this situation screams simple. It could all get rather complicated.

This is literally what I wrote last week, in the form of a three year deal with the third year voidable. 

 

[TwinTurbo]

There has been 20+ pages of discussion on exactly why the Pats would trade him if they considered him a franchise QB.

Yes this forum is full of 20+ page discussions on topics that could be covered in a single page. osubuckeyeman and FreeBaGel already addressed the relevant points on page 10. If the Pats trade JG for a 1st and a 4th, then that means they don't think he's a franchise QB, plain and simple. This thread will continue to live on for several more pages but that's what it means given all of the variables. Most of the counter arguments are based on Brady starting 3-5 more years for the Pats, which is almost certainly not going to happen. Even Favre only made it to 41. Testaverde and Moon both made it to 44 but their final years were as backups. Brady probably has two good years left. If the Pats believe JG is the guy to replace him, they will move heaven and earth to keep him. If they do trade him, that speaks volumes as to how they view his long term potential.

 

[Anarchy99]

This is literally what I wrote last week, in the form of a three year deal with the third year voidable. 

I seem to recall you suggested NE would be able to sign Garoppolo to a 3 year, $24 million deal. I am saying he gets franchised for close to that amount IN ONE SEASON. How is that similar?

 

[Hankmoody]

I seem to recall you suggested NE would be able to sign Garoppolo to a 3 year, $24 million deal. I am saying he gets franchised for close to that amount IN ONE SEASON. How is that similar?

Not sure how this is so complicated. 

March 2017 - a check for $12M

2017 Salary - $1M

2018 Salary - $ 10M

2019 Salary - $1M, voidable

Cap numbers become $5M, $15M, and $4 dead.

 

[Anarchy99]

Yes this forum is full of 20+ page discussions on topics that could be covered in a single page. osubuckeyeman and FreeBaGel already addressed the relevant points on page 10. If the Pats trade JG for a 1st and a 4th, then that means they don't think he's a franchise QB, plain and simple. This thread will continue to live on for several more pages but that's what it means given all of the variables. Most of the counter arguments are based on Brady starting 3-5 more years for the Pats, which is almost certainly not going to happen. Even Favre only made it to 41. Testaverde and Moon both made it to 44 but their final years were as backups. Brady probably has two good years left. If the Pats believe JG is the guy to replace him, they will move heaven and earth to keep him. If they do trade him, that speaks volumes as to how they view his long term potential.

It's possible that Garoppolo would be a decent downgrade compared to Brady, yet JG could be a significant UPGRADE for other teams. No one has really chimed in as to what a "franchise QB" really means, but if Garoppolo were traded and performed like Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Stafford, or Philip Rivers then what? Would that make him a franchise QB? A decent QB on teams that struggled to win, struggled in the post season, or otherwise weren't SB winners?

I really have no idea what people expect Garoppolo to do if he DID take over for Brady. If he went 11-5 instead of 14-2 and went one and done in the playoffs that would be a poor outcome compared to Brady but overall a decent outcome for 31 other teams. If he went to CLE, SF, or CHI and got them to 8-8 . . . is that a success or not really?

As far as Brady goes moving forward, few quarterbacks put up the numbers and the results he put up over his last three seasons at any age, so he is starting higher on the performance scale at an older age already. By that I mean, if his numbers and skills started dropping at a rate similar to other players, he still has plenty of time left to decline to that of an average QB. I know that people will say he will go from the penthouse to the outhouse almost overnight, but he doesn't really show signs of that at this point.

At some point there will be few players to compare him to. People said the same thing about Jerry Rice, that WRs had to pack it in by age 35. People said the same thing about Emmitt Smith, that RB's couldn't be productive past 30 or 31. Brady from ages 37-39 had the highest passer rating out of anyone in the league and won 2 of the last 3 Super Bowls. Of the other guys in the past that played at that age, their production on the field and their team's success wasn't close to that. At some point, people will say Brady is breaking new ground and is not like all the guys that came before him.

Only Brett Favre did anything as a 40 year old at QB (4202/33/7) and only Warren Moon did anything as a 41 year old QB (3678/25/16). IMO, the Patriots would take that type of production and would still be in great position to get back to the Super Bowl. Brady doesn't half to put up giant numbers every week for the Pats to still win consistently. If at age 42, Brady put up 3600/23/12 like he did in 2004 and NE went 14-2 again, would people be saying he was hurting his team?

Let's save the discussion for when things go bad when he actually gets to that point.

 

[Riversco]

The browns or bears should not straight up give a first rounder for jg. Maybe swap first rounders, but id ask for more because you are dropping to the bottom of round 1. 

 

[Mingooch]

Not sure how this is so complicated. 

March 2017 - a check for $12M

2017 Salary - $1M

2018 Salary - $ 10M

2019 Salary - $1M, voidable

Cap numbers become $5M, $15M, and $4 dead.

And why would JG ever sign this?  he is far too smart for that.  Only an idiot would sign that.

 

[Boston]

And why would JG ever sign this?  he is far too smart for that.  Only an idiot would sign that.

Not only that but he would probably be looking at being a back-up for another two-three more years in that scenario...as you said...why would he do that (unless his goal is to be the next Frank Reich)?

 

[Stealthycat]

so through this all - who gets Jimmy ?

Cleveland

Chicago

49ers 

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/jimmy-garoppolo-nfl-trade-rumors-patriots-49ers-browns-bears/kx63zcuombcx1lkp7ou8zyuu2

 

[Anarchy99]

I saw today that the Saints were said to be in the mix on JG. That would be interesting that he would go from being behind Brady to potentially behind Brees.

 

[ghostguy123]

so through this all - who gets Jimmy ?

Cleveland

Chicago

49ers 

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/jimmy-garoppolo-nfl-trade-rumors-patriots-49ers-browns-bears/kx63zcuombcx1lkp7ou8zyuu2

I think the contract JG is willing to sign will play a big role in what teams are willing to give up for him. 

With that in mind, I think Cleveland obviously has the upper hand in how they can structure a deal with more cap space than anyone  has ever had, ever.  Also, they not only have the best picks of any team over the next two years, but those picks are spread out all over each of the first two rounds.  Lot of options. 

Obviously Chicago and San Fran can "afford" JG, but signing JG wouldn't affect anything else Cleveland would want to do in free agency.  They couldn't spent all that cap space if they tried. 

It might come down to which front office feels more pressure to win right now in fear of getting fired. 

All that said, and the more I think about it, I see zero chance Cleveland gives the value of pick 12.  Now, if NE gives back pick 32 I could see that, but I think NE wants to add picks rather than just improve one of their picks. 

In the end, I do not think JG fetches as much as most people think he will, and I don't think he signs for as much  money as most people think he will.  I still think it is a very real possibility he stays in NE this year because NE m just might not get back what they need to feel like it makes sense to move him.