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Player Spotlight: Ben Roethlisberger (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Ben Roethlisberger Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
All the talent, and great weapons around him. Could use some O-line help, but that hasnt seemed to hurt him too much in the past. The biggest factor here is the Steelers D. As long as they play like they did last year Big Bens pass attempts should be limited. They probably cant pass any less than last year, but i expect his attempts to still be on the lower side. That could hurt him, as i doubt the Steelers will have the pas/run TD ratio they had last year. Hopefully the tougher schedule will force the Steelers to throw more as games will be closer in the 2nd half than they were last year. Ben had 168 pass attempts in the first half of games last year, while only having 126 in the 2nd half.

425/280 3340 yards, 30 TD's, 34 carries 160 yards, 2 TD's

 
The Steelers had 34 passing touchdowns (32 by Big Ben, 2 by Batch) and 9 rushing touchdowns last season. That's just odd. The Steelers are at heart a running team. As those stats return to normal I think Roethlisberger's numbers will fall some. I think that people drafting Big Ben expecting last season's numbers are going to be disappointed.

 
The Steelers had 34 passing touchdowns (32 by Big Ben, 2 by Batch) and 9 rushing touchdowns last season. That's just odd. The Steelers are at heart a running team. As those stats return to normal I think Roethlisberger's numbers will fall some. I think that people drafting Big Ben expecting last season's numbers are going to be disappointed.
I kinda think the opposite of that, I think the people expecting the Steelers to return to the offense they ran when Cowher was there are in for a surprise.I would be shocked if Ben wasn't a top-10 QB and he has top-3 upside.3600-29 passing 200-4 rushing.
 
Big Ben has quietly improved on his fantasy rank every season. He burst on the scene as a rookie winning the Super Bowl and aside from a hiccup with the motorcycle accident and the appendix surgery that he was slow to recover.

1st yr - 14 gms 196 comp in 295 att for 2621 yds 8.9 ypa 17 TDs & 11 ints & 144 yds 1 TD rush QB20

2nd yr - 13 gms 168 comp in 268 att for 2385 yds 8.9 ypa 17 TDs & 9 ints & 69 yds 3 TD rush QB18

3rd yr - 15 gms 280 comp in 469 att for 3513 yds 7.5 ypa 18 TDs & 23 ints & 98 yds 2 TD rush QB12

4th yr - 15 gms 264 comp in 404 att for 3154 yds 7.8 ypa 32 TDs & 11 ints & 204 yds 2 TD rush QB5

Some folks have the old Cowher running game mentality so Big Ben could slip a little in drafts. I think he is easily the sixth QB and if you can grab him some later than the top five he could present value.

With the OL problems and the potential for a slightly more porous defense, there may be a need to pass more often.

Big Ben 16 gms 290 comp 485 att 3780 yards 26 TDs 12 ints and add 180 rush yds and 3 TDs

thanks for the assistance comments...only 3 TDs rushing

 
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I think Ben's attempts actually go slightly up this year, not a lot though. 27 attempts per game

His completion % should stay close to what it was last year. 65%

Meaning, his completions are 17.5 per game.

His y/a is highly unlikely to approach his first two years as he throws more, I'll say about the same as last year. 7.9 as Holmes gets slightly more.

7.9 (y/a) * 27 attempts per game = 213 y/g

He's unlikely to get 32 TDs again, but 1.7 per game seems reasonable.

I'll go with a INT% of 3. .81 i/g

I don't see him running as much, I'll say 10 y/g with 2 TDs on the year

Put it all together, and we get:

281 / 432, 3,408 yards, 27/13 with 160/2 running

 
Big Ben 16 gms 290 comp 485 att 3780 yards 26 TDs 12 ints and add 180 rush yds and 23 TDs
:excited:
Mark it down. The guy is a beast at the goaline. 23 rushing TDs is his floor.
Tim Tebow got nothing on Big Ben.
thanks for the assistance on my typo..... :rolleyes:
thanks for the assistance comments...only 3 TDs rushing
;) now you tell me, after I drafted him in the 1st.
 
Ben has a great fantasy situation. The Steelers are one of the top running offenses in the league--defenses know they have to commit to stopping Pittsburgh's running game. He has one of the most sure handed receivers in the league in Hines Ward, one of the better field stretching receivers in Holmes, and a handful of tight ends that really seemed to excel in the redzone. He'll have 6 games against Cleveland, Cinci, and Baltimore---all of whom ranked in the 20's in pass defense last season. 2 of those teams sport outstanding offenses, which could cause some shootouts. Lastly, Sweed's could be a major factor for them this year. Ward/Holmes/Sweed is going to be very difficult to contain.

319/496

3819 Yards

28 TD's

9Ints

37 Rushes

151 Yards

3 TDs

I know, seems like quite the uptick in Yards, but with Ward/Holmes/Sweed/Miller...I just can't see him not passing alot more.

 
everyone keeps rambling about the Steelers being a rushing team at heart.

Here's the problem...that "heart" is either in Arizona or Carolina (retired)

Bruce Arians and Mike Tomlin are different people with different philosophies.

Ben says, "I want a new contract", and shortly thereafter, Ben gets $105 mil.

Ben says "I want a tall WR", what happens? #2 in the draft, they pick up Limas Sweed.

The Steelers now have Santonio Holmes, a legit deep threat/burner, Hines Ward, the ultimate slot/possession receiver, 2 big targets for the end zone (Heath Miller, Limas Sweed), and Ben has built up a rapport with all 3 of them, not to mention that Rashard Mendenhall is a guy that pass protects and catches out of the backfield.

Ben won't hit his TD total again, as Mendy will steal red zone opportunities, but Ben will break some passing records for the Steelers.

315 of 497, 63.4%, 3895 yards, 28 TDs, 15 picks, plus another 100 yards rushing with 2 TDs

Watch for Sweed to get at least half doze of those TDs

 
everyone keeps rambling about the Steelers being a rushing team at heart. Here's the problem...that "heart" is either in Arizona or Carolina (retired)Bruce Arians and Mike Tomlin are different people with different philosophies.Ben says, "I want a new contract", and shortly thereafter, Ben gets $105 mil.Ben says "I want a tall WR", what happens? #2 in the draft, they pick up Limas Sweed.The Steelers now have Santonio Holmes, a legit deep threat/burner, Hines Ward, the ultimate slot/possession receiver, 2 big targets for the end zone (Heath Miller, Limas Sweed), and Ben has built up a rapport with all 3 of them, not to mention that Rashard Mendenhall is a guy that pass protects and catches out of the backfield.Ben won't hit his TD total again, as Mendy will steal red zone opportunities, but Ben will break some passing records for the Steelers.315 of 497, 63.4%, 3895 yards, 28 TDs, 15 picks, plus another 100 yards rushing with 2 TDsWatch for Sweed to get at least half doze of those TDs
:goodposting:
 
The Steelers will continue to run the ball, but I really think they have a slightly different philosophy due to their players. They have a franchise QB, excellent WR, and an OC that loves to air it out. I don't expect a 4000 yards season any time soon, but I think we can expect close to 30 TDs passing and 3500 yards for the next few seasons. This guy is a stud.

3500 yards passing

28 Tds passing

14 interceptions

250 rushing yards

3 rushing Tds

 
everyone keeps rambling about the Steelers being a rushing team at heart. Here's the problem...that "heart" is either in Arizona or Carolina (retired)Bruce Arians and Mike Tomlin are different people with different philosophies.Ben says, "I want a new contract", and shortly thereafter, Ben gets $105 mil.Ben says "I want a tall WR", what happens? #2 in the draft, they pick up Limas Sweed.The Steelers now have Santonio Holmes, a legit deep threat/burner, Hines Ward, the ultimate slot/possession receiver, 2 big targets for the end zone (Heath Miller, Limas Sweed), and Ben has built up a rapport with all 3 of them, not to mention that Rashard Mendenhall is a guy that pass protects and catches out of the backfield.Ben won't hit his TD total again, as Mendy will steal red zone opportunities, but Ben will break some passing records for the Steelers.315 of 497, 63.4%, 3895 yards, 28 TDs, 15 picks, plus another 100 yards rushing with 2 TDsWatch for Sweed to get at least half doze of those TDs
Somebody gets it. Welcome to today.I still don't quite trust Roth for truly good QB1 numbers, but if you wait on QB till fairly late (or cheap in auctions), you could sure do worse.
 
everyone keeps rambling about the Steelers being a rushing team at heart. Here's the problem...that "heart" is either in Arizona or Carolina (retired)Bruce Arians and Mike Tomlin are different people with different philosophies.Ben says, "I want a new contract", and shortly thereafter, Ben gets $105 mil.Ben says "I want a tall WR", what happens? #2 in the draft, they pick up Limas Sweed.The Steelers now have Santonio Holmes, a legit deep threat/burner, Hines Ward, the ultimate slot/possession receiver, 2 big targets for the end zone (Heath Miller, Limas Sweed), and Ben has built up a rapport with all 3 of them, not to mention that Rashard Mendenhall is a guy that pass protects and catches out of the backfield.Ben won't hit his TD total again, as Mendy will steal red zone opportunities, but Ben will break some passing records for the Steelers.315 of 497, 63.4%, 3895 yards, 28 TDs, 15 picks, plus another 100 yards rushing with 2 TDsWatch for Sweed to get at least half doze of those TDs
:confused: Looks pretty solid to me. I see Mendy really helping with the play action passing in the red zone to open things up for our TEs and the new toy Sweed. Way better than my Tommy Maddox throws for 5000 yards theory.
 
I can't see Big Ben in the top 5.... I can't pass up Palmer for Ben... even Hass in Redraft.

I do understand that the Old Steeler Pound the ball seems to be going away... especially when their drafting Offensive Weapons in the 1st 2 rounds. But 30 TDs again is a little Crazy... and I want to see some more yards from him too... around 3500.

I'm saying 3300 for 24 TDs

 

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