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Player Spotlight: David Wilson, RB, New York Giants (1 Viewer)

In a PPR redraft starting to think Wilson should move ahead of CJ, MJD, Forte.... Is that nuts?
No way I take him over Forte. I don't like MJD's situation, but I still might take MJD over Wilson, ppr. And as previously mentioned, CJ is anyone's guess. I've steered clear of him but would struggle choosing between those two.

I think Wilson will light up some weeks but I'm not expecting him to win owners a lot of their weeks.
I don't agree with the "no way am I taking him over <x> guy" at least with the ones mentioned here. Wilson has the talent and now the opportunity to finish Top 5 this year. Why would there be no way you're taking him over Forte? The guy hasn't scored more than 6 TDs the past two seasons. It appears like Wilson should be a rather large part of the running and passing game. In the preseason he had 24 rushes to 7 receptions running as the starter in all 4 of the games. That's almost a 1/3 carry to reception ratio. Obviously that won't keep up throughout the season but it's possible he gets a LOT more receptions than people are currently projecting for him. Bradshaw averaged around 45 receptions or so year-to-year on the team. By comparison Forte had 44 receptions in 15 games last year.

This comes to personal preference, me personally? I think Wilson's floor is about the same as Forte and higher than MJD and CJ's. I think Wilson's ceiling is higher than Forte and MJD and even with CJ. So yeah, I'd 100% draft him over MJD, CJ and Forte.
You don't agree with someone saying there's no way they'd take him over Forte, but you go on to say you'd take him 100% over Forte.

Sorry, but that made me giggle.

Oh, and since you are basing evaluation on preseason, that Forte had a terrible preseason, no?

Yes, I know it's 'personal opinion' and all, but you totally contradicted yourself, bud.

 
In a PPR redraft starting to think Wilson should move ahead of CJ, MJD, Forte.... Is that nuts?
No way I take him over Forte. I don't like MJD's situation, but I still might take MJD over Wilson, ppr. And as previously mentioned, CJ is anyone's guess. I've steered clear of him but would struggle choosing between those two.

I think Wilson will light up some weeks but I'm not expecting him to win owners a lot of their weeks.
I don't agree with the "no way am I taking him over <x> guy" at least with the ones mentioned here. Wilson has the talent and now the opportunity to finish Top 5 this year. Why would there be no way you're taking him over Forte? The guy hasn't scored more than 6 TDs the past two seasons. It appears like Wilson should be a rather large part of the running and passing game. In the preseason he had 24 rushes to 7 receptions running as the starter in all 4 of the games. That's almost a 1/3 carry to reception ratio. Obviously that won't keep up throughout the season but it's possible he gets a LOT more receptions than people are currently projecting for him. Bradshaw averaged around 45 receptions or so year-to-year on the team. By comparison Forte had 44 receptions in 15 games last year.

This comes to personal preference, me personally? I think Wilson's floor is about the same as Forte and higher than MJD and CJ's. I think Wilson's ceiling is higher than Forte and MJD and even with CJ. So yeah, I'd 100% draft him over MJD, CJ and Forte.
You don't agree with someone saying there's no way they'd take him over Forte, but you go on to say you'd take him 100% over Forte.

Sorry, but that made me giggle.

Oh, and since you are basing evaluation on preseason, that Forte had a terrible preseason, no?

Yes, I know it's 'personal opinion' and all, but you totally contradicted yourself, bud.
What I mean by that isn't that "I'm always going to draft him over Forte" more so that I think an argument can be made for any of them to be ahead of the pack. I feel like Forte and Wilson should be the 1a and 1b of this list and it's kind of a coin flip as to whom I'm taking. I'd take Wilson over him simply because I think Wilson has a much higher ceiling and is in a better offense than Forte. I'm simply saying "Yeah, I'd definitely consider taking Wilson over them all" as opposed to saying "There's no way I'm taking him over Forte"

 
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Giants placed RB Andre Brown (broken leg) on injured reserve/designated to return.
There's some confusion over when Brown is eligible to return, but it appears to be Week 10. Facing a 4-6 week timetable, Brown should be ready when first eligible, but his injury history isn't exactly rosy. How David Wilson fares with lead duties could also affect how hard the Giants push his fragile backup. Considering Wilson's upside and Brown's durability issues, he's a low-upside stash.
Source: Dan Graziano on Twitter
Sep 3 - 2:08 PM
So Brown shouldn't be back until Week 10? More than half way through the season, which would seem to imply thus even more plus side for Wilson as current projections were assuming Brown would be back in Week 4-6.

 
Giants placed RB Andre Brown (broken leg) on injured reserve/designated to return.
There's some confusion over when Brown is eligible to return, but it appears to be Week 10. Facing a 4-6 week timetable, Brown should be ready when first eligible, but his injury history isn't exactly rosy. How David Wilson fares with lead duties could also affect how hard the Giants push his fragile backup. Considering Wilson's upside and Brown's durability issues, he's a low-upside stash.
Source: Dan Graziano on Twitter
Sep 3 - 2:08 PM
So Brown shouldn't be back until Week 10? More than half way through the season, which would seem to imply thus even more plus side for Wilson as current projections were assuming Brown would be back in Week 4-6.
Even if you expected Brown back in 4-6 weeks (I think most of us thought that at best, it's 6-8 anyway), by that time Wilson has either shown he can handle full time duty and/or all the necessary roles (3rd down and goaline) or not. The news that Brown is definitely out for most of the fantasy season won't affect my view of Wilson - it got a big bump when Brown went down, and the rest has far more to do with Wilson's ability to do the role's and his ability to handle the full workload, rather than who might take touches.

Brown was going to steal touches, perhaps a decent amount and a lot of the most important ones (GL). Once he was out for over a month, it became up to Wilson to show what he can handle, and even if Brown returned earlier, that role would pretty much have been cemented (either way).

 
Giants placed RB Andre Brown (broken leg) on injured reserve/designated to return.
There's some confusion over when Brown is eligible to return, but it appears to be Week 10. Facing a 4-6 week timetable, Brown should be ready when first eligible, but his injury history isn't exactly rosy. How David Wilson fares with lead duties could also affect how hard the Giants push his fragile backup. Considering Wilson's upside and Brown's durability issues, he's a low-upside stash.
Source: Dan Graziano on Twitter
Sep 3 - 2:08 PM
So Brown shouldn't be back until Week 10? More than half way through the season, which would seem to imply thus even more plus side for Wilson as current projections were assuming Brown would be back in Week 4-6.
Even if you expected Brown back in 4-6 weeks (I think most of us thought that at best, it's 6-8 anyway), by that time Wilson has either shown he can handle full time duty and/or all the necessary roles (3rd down and goaline) or not. The news that Brown is definitely out for most of the fantasy season won't affect my view of Wilson - it got a big bump when Brown went down, and the rest has far more to do with Wilson's ability to do the role's and his ability to handle the full workload, rather than who might take touches.

Brown was going to steal touches, perhaps a decent amount and a lot of the most important ones (GL). Once he was out for over a month, it became up to Wilson to show what he can handle, and even if Brown returned earlier, that role would pretty much have been cemented (either way).
Sure, I mean... they were saying it was a 4-6 week injury. And he went down two weeks ago, so most people were saying Week 3 or 4 he may have been able to come back. If he managed to get on the field in Week 4 it's possible that Brown would have managed to get back some of his originally planned duties regardless of how Wilson was doing. Like sure, if they had Wilson converting say 50% of short yardage situations and Brown came in and was converting 20% they eventually would have given the job back to Wilson. But we'd have probably seen a dip in his 3rd down and goal line carries for a few weeks upon Brown's return. Now with him out till Week 10 now though, it's almost impossible that he takes over for Wilson if Wilson is doing a good job.

 
JustinHawkins said:
In a PPR redraft starting to think Wilson should move ahead of CJ, MJD, Forte.... Is that nuts?
no but surprised it took you so long to think this way OBI Kenobe haha

 
Giants placed RB Andre Brown (broken leg) on injured reserve/designated to return.
There's some confusion over when Brown is eligible to return, but it appears to be Week 10. Facing a 4-6 week timetable, Brown should be ready when first eligible, but his injury history isn't exactly rosy. How David Wilson fares with lead duties could also affect how hard the Giants push his fragile backup. Considering Wilson's upside and Brown's durability issues, he's a low-upside stash.
Source: Dan Graziano on Twitter
Sep 3 - 2:08 PM
So Brown shouldn't be back until Week 10? More than half way through the season, which would seem to imply thus even more plus side for Wilson as current projections were assuming Brown would be back in Week 4-6.
Even if you expected Brown back in 4-6 weeks (I think most of us thought that at best, it's 6-8 anyway), by that time Wilson has either shown he can handle full time duty and/or all the necessary roles (3rd down and goaline) or not. The news that Brown is definitely out for most of the fantasy season won't affect my view of Wilson - it got a big bump when Brown went down, and the rest has far more to do with Wilson's ability to do the role's and his ability to handle the full workload, rather than who might take touches.

Brown was going to steal touches, perhaps a decent amount and a lot of the most important ones (GL). Once he was out for over a month, it became up to Wilson to show what he can handle, and even if Brown returned earlier, that role would pretty much have been cemented (either way).
Sure, I mean... they were saying it was a 4-6 week injury. And he went down two weeks ago, so most people were saying Week 3 or 4 he may have been able to come back. If he managed to get on the field in Week 4 it's possible that Brown would have managed to get back some of his originally planned duties regardless of how Wilson was doing. Like sure, if they had Wilson converting say 50% of short yardage situations and Brown came in and was converting 20% they eventually would have given the job back to Wilson. But we'd have probably seen a dip in his 3rd down and goal line carries for a few weeks upon Brown's return. Now with him out till Week 10 now though, it's almost impossible that he takes over for Wilson if Wilson is doing a good job.
Fair points. I guess I never bought in that Brown would be up to full speed anytime before week 6, and probably later in any case - which is probably what the Giants think since week 6 maybe = week 8 probably and might as well get the roster spot by IRing him.

 
where have people seen him go in redrafts over the last few days? Interested to know if it's a pipe dream that he makes it to mid 3rd.

 
where have people seen him go in redrafts over the last few days? Interested to know if it's a pipe dream that he makes it to mid 3rd.
All the latest 10-team/12-team mocks I have been doing primarily have him going in the 2nd round. So if you want DW, you're going to have to use your 2nd rd pick on him.

 
Spent 16% of my cap room on Wilson in a blind auction this weekend. Bids were everywhere from 8-16%.

I think half the teams were thinking they could get him cheap, while the other half was bidding market value.

 
Added bonus is there really can't be any doghouse if Wilson were to fumble. The Giants don't have any other horse in the stable.

 
I took him Monday at 2.15 in a 16 team non PPR. He went after Gore, CJ2k, MJD and before McFadden, Bush, Murray, Lacy in a split RB run.

 
Targeted him at 3.3 in my local last Thursday (12 team standard scoring), Jimmy Graham's availability changed my plan. Still got him at 4.10 and that's in a league with a couple of Giants homers too (guy picking right behind me is the biggest and took Cruz right before me). Brown broke his leg later that same night. I consider myself very fortunate, good timing and a league with more than a few who clearly did little homework this off-season.

Edit to add - participated in a draft Monday night and he went 2.10, a little more representative of his current value.

 
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Last year, Giants RBs had 386 attempts, and 50 receptions (bottom third in the league in most RB categories)

- Bradshaw had 221 carries and 23 catches

- Bradshaw had 73 carries and 12 catches

- Wilson had 71 carries and 4 catches

I had expected to split a similar workload, but between the two returning guys, with Wilson being the #1 and Brown the #2.

That would have looked like

- ~250-260 carries and ~30 catches for Wilson

- ~130-140 carries and ~20 receptions for Brown

With Brown now gone, they have to find another RB to touch the ball ~150 times; almost 10 touches a game. If their #3 option isn't all that great, the FAs still out there might still provide them some value. I see no impact to Wilson's projections if they sign another RB, even if it's a big-name (Turner, McGahee...). If Wilson sucks, that could change though.

 
Added bonus is there really can't be any doghouse if Wilson were to fumble. The Giants don't have any other horse in the stable.
Fair point. Although seeing as though he hasn't fumbled since that infamous one in week 1, including this entire preseason (albeit on limited carries), perhaps he has a bit longer leash now for fumbilitis.

 
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Last year, Giants RBs had 386 attempts, and 50 receptions (bottom third in the league in most RB categories)

- Bradshaw had 221 carries and 23 catches

- Bradshaw had 73 carries and 12 catches

- Wilson had 71 carries and 4 catches

I had expected to split a similar workload, but between the two returning guys, with Wilson being the #1 and Brown the #2.

That would have looked like

- ~250-260 carries and ~30 catches for Wilson

- ~130-140 carries and ~20 receptions for Brown

With Brown now gone, they have to find another RB to touch the ball ~150 times; almost 10 touches a game. If their #3 option isn't all that great, the FAs still out there might still provide them some value. I see no impact to Wilson's projections if they sign another RB, even if it's a big-name (Turner, McGahee...). If Wilson sucks, that could change though.
Last year, the Giants had 3 good RBs that could handle 100-150+ carries and they felt comfortable with any of them in most situations. This year, they have 1. I don't expect the split to be like last year based on that fact that you're ignoring. They didn't split the carries just because they liked to keep them fresh, they split because all 3 RBs were posting 4.6 ypc or better.

 
Last year, Giants RBs had 386 attempts, and 50 receptions (bottom third in the league in most RB categories)

- Bradshaw had 221 carries and 23 catches

- Bradshaw had 73 carries and 12 catches

- Wilson had 71 carries and 4 catches

I had expected to split a similar workload, but between the two returning guys, with Wilson being the #1 and Brown the #2.

That would have looked like

- ~250-260 carries and ~30 catches for Wilson

- ~130-140 carries and ~20 receptions for Brown

With Brown now gone, they have to find another RB to touch the ball ~150 times; almost 10 touches a game. If their #3 option isn't all that great, the FAs still out there might still provide them some value. I see no impact to Wilson's projections if they sign another RB, even if it's a big-name (Turner, McGahee...). If Wilson sucks, that could change though.
Last year, the Giants had 3 good RBs that could handle 100-150+ carries and they felt comfortable with any of them in most situations. This year, they have 1. I don't expect the split to be like last year based on that fact that you're ignoring. They didn't split the carries just because they liked to keep them fresh, they split because all 3 RBs were posting 4.6 ypc or better.
They didn't do a split to keep guys fresh. Bradshaw was kept in games during garbage time last year, despite his having the concerns with his foot. I thought they would have Bradshaw on a "pitch count" to keep him fresh but they gave him 30 carries in a rout of the Browns.

 
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OOF!

echoes of last opening game...

without bradshaw and brown, hopefully he gets a shot at redemption this time...

 

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