Player Spotlight: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

[FF Ninja]

No offense, but this doesn't make sense. If you want to argue that Ryan isn't "elite," that's one thing (although I'd disagree), but to suggest that there are between 11-17 QBs better than him is laughable.

You list Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, and Brady as elite, and cite Ryan's "situation" as the only reason he "compiles" stats.

Brees' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He has Colston, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and a system that lets him throw the ball 40 times almost every game.

Rodgers' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He had/has Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley, a crap running game and a HC who relies on Rodgers.

Peyton situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He IS the offense in Denver. He essentially calls the plays on the field. Thomas and Decker aren't a bad WR combo, either.

Brady's situation is comparable/better than Ryan. Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, plus a coach who thinks you should treat a 28 point lead like you're down by 10 and keep throwing? QBs probably hate that kind of game plan.

So you have these QBs as elite. Each of them are more "veteran" than Ryan (although Rodgers became the starter in Ryan's rookie year). All their "situations" are comparable.

None of those QBs had a higher completion percentage than Ryan in 2012, only two had a higher YPA, & only two had more passing yards. Ryan had the fewest passing TDs amongst the five, but of the other 4, Manning only exceeded Ryan's 32 TD passes once in his first 5 years, it took Rodgers 4 years (as a starter) to hit that mark, and Brady and Brees didn't hit that number in their first 5 years.

The fact is that Ryan is very close to that group, if not a part of it. The only thing holding him back is TDs. If he can throw 3-5 more TDs this year (which I think he can/will, based on becoming more experienced, and his career progression thus far), while maintaining (if not improving) those other numbers, he will be solidly in the elite tier.

Since I expect Jones to replace White as the #1 option this year, I'll project:

160 targets

89 catches (56% catch rate)

1350 yards (15.2 YPR)]

13 TDs

That's hardly being "held back" by his QB.

Look, you are clearly under the influence of fantasy football stats so I won't be able to reason with you. Your logic is laughable for how you rationalize Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees' situations being better/comparable to Ryan's. Being the offense with no running threat does not actually make it a better situation for a QB. And yes, all those receiving corps are pretty good, but they don't match Ryan's trio. I think Brees has by far the worst trio since you had to throw in a running back. You didn't even try to count Tamme/Dreessen for Peyton's third.

Those guys are all making their WRs better, whereas I think Ryan is being towed along behind his. Their situations appear comparable because they are putting up silly stats because they are elite. You think you could plunk Ryan down in Denver and give him 583 attempts and he'd be off and running?

You also make the same mistake as Art by referencing Peyton's early career numbers vs. Ryan's early career. Three guys had 30+ TD in 2001. Three guys had 40+ TD in 2011. Different era. Stop looking at fantasy stats and look at the situation. I mean, a couple years ago no one would've argued that Rivers was borderline elite. Now people like Art think it's ridiculous to consider him better than Ryan. What a difference a fantasy season makes. Rivers has seen his ADP crash and now Ryan is considered elite. Seriously consider flip flopping him and Flacco. Not a single person here would be calling Ryan elite if he was stuck in Baltimore throwing the ball 530 times. Fantasy stats have totally warped people's perceptions of players. Stafford was an elite QB a year ago in this forum. I said he wasn't, people jeered at me the same as you do now.

Here are a few seasons much like Ryan's fifth season (615-4719-32-14) that were not accomplished by guys considered elite and was done with lesser receivers:

478-4009-34-11 (Rivers 3rd season as a starter)

541-4710-30-13 (Rivers 5th season as a starter)

583-4770-29-15 (Schaub 3rd season as a starter)

616-4526-25-18 (Cutler 2nd season as a starter)

520-4035-28-13 (Palmer 3rd season as a starter)

Obviously Rivers and Palmer were not able to achieve the yardage due to 100 less passes thrown, but the touchdowns per attempt are better. Fantasy stats and situation make a huge difference in public opinion. Is there no one you think is overrated in the NFL due to their situation? Try to mention it a thread related to that player and people will jump all over you. It's comical.

And for the record, I'm not saying there are 17 guys better than him. Just that he's in the same talent group as guys like Eli and Flacco, but he's in a much better situation. Feel free to provide your QB talent tiers, although I'm certain it will greatly resemble the consensus fantasy football ADP list.

 

[meyerj31]

At some point Roddy and Gonzo are going to be marginalized by Julio. I am betting it is this year.

These comments I really don't understand.

If, say, Julio was on the Colts this year instead of, say, Hilton. Whom would you rather take for ADP .... Julio in the 2nd or Reggie Wayne in the 5th?

Call me crazy but in PPR I would rather have Wayne in the 5th. Julio will be facing double coverage all year and Wayne will pile up intermediate routes and receptions all year. Calibrate this with Roddy, whom is still on top of his game at 30 years old. Roddy is going in the 4th ... do you want a top flight WR whom is seeing single coverage all year, or Julio? When you can get Roddy CHEAPER than Julio? Roddy is still the play this year and I think he'll continue to be the play until he leaves the Falcons. Even if he loses a step (ala Wayne) I'll still take him at his ADP over Julio.

Who is the better NFL player? Not even close, it's Julio. But when it comes to fantasy I'll play the elite talent surrounding him at their ADP.

In addition to this... if I'm going to blow a 2nd round pick on a WR, it's gonna be a guy that has no WR competition (Calvin, Marshall, AJ Green, possibly Bryant).

 

[hauser42]

Easily all the tools and surronding cast for Jones to be a top 5 WR.

There is a couple issues though with Jones.

1, Bit of an injury history that has kept him out of the field at times.

2. Lot targets getting spread around with Gonzo, White and other parts of the offense.

3. Falcons upgraded at RB with Jackson and should allow them to move the ball on the ground better.

Even though Jackson will take some of the plays away from the passing attack, he will also take some of the coverage off the passing game. Teams will be sneaking safeties up to stop running game and open Jones up for deep balls.

Jones should get 85 catches with 1200 yards and 10 tds this season. He will have some great weeks and some stinkers. This is not his doing just how the offense is setup. The hot hand and better matchups in this offense will carry the team for each week and there are a lot of guys to get hot.

Matt Ryan is no average QB he is a top end guy with a great offense around him those bashing him should look at A Rod and the talent he has around him. These two are very similar with great offenses to run and I am a diehard Packer fan.

Please expound on how Ryan is even in the same galaxy as Rodgers.

The comparision is that they both have many weapons on offense to make them better. Ryan is not far behind Rodgers as some are making it out to be, IF Ryan and Falcons had beaten the Packers couple years ago we could easily be talking about Ryan instead of Rodgers, and that year the Ryan came back to beat the Packers at Atlanta. Since I love the Packers and backed the Rodger move from day 1 I would take Rodgers every day over Ryan.

 

[Art Vandalay]

No offense, but this doesn't make sense. If you want to argue that Ryan isn't "elite," that's one thing (although I'd disagree), but to suggest that there are between 11-17 QBs better than him is laughable.

You list Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, and Brady as elite, and cite Ryan's "situation" as the only reason he "compiles" stats.

Brees' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He has Colston, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and a system that lets him throw the ball 40 times almost every game.

Rodgers' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He had/has Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley, a crap running game and a HC who relies on Rodgers.

Peyton situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He IS the offense in Denver. He essentially calls the plays on the field. Thomas and Decker aren't a bad WR combo, either.

Brady's situation is comparable/better than Ryan. Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, plus a coach who thinks you should treat a 28 point lead like you're down by 10 and keep throwing? QBs probably hate that kind of game plan.

So you have these QBs as elite. Each of them are more "veteran" than Ryan (although Rodgers became the starter in Ryan's rookie year). All their "situations" are comparable.

None of those QBs had a higher completion percentage than Ryan in 2012, only two had a higher YPA, & only two had more passing yards. Ryan had the fewest passing TDs amongst the five, but of the other 4, Manning only exceeded Ryan's 32 TD passes once in his first 5 years, it took Rodgers 4 years (as a starter) to hit that mark, and Brady and Brees didn't hit that number in their first 5 years.

The fact is that Ryan is very close to that group, if not a part of it. The only thing holding him back is TDs. If he can throw 3-5 more TDs this year (which I think he can/will, based on becoming more experienced, and his career progression thus far), while maintaining (if not improving) those other numbers, he will be solidly in the elite tier.

Since I expect Jones to replace White as the #1 option this year, I'll project:

160 targets

89 catches (56% catch rate)

1350 yards (15.2 YPR)]

13 TDs

That's hardly being "held back" by his QB.

Look, you are clearly under the influence of fantasy football stats so I won't be able to reason with you. Your logic is laughable for how you rationalize Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees' situations being better/comparable to Ryan's. Being the offense with no running threat does not actually make it a better situation for a QB. And yes, all those receiving corps are pretty good, but they don't match Ryan's trio. I think Brees has by far the worst trio since you had to throw in a running back. You didn't even try to count Tamme/Dreessen for Peyton's third.

Those guys are all making their WRs better, whereas I think Ryan is being towed along behind his. Their situations appear comparable because they are putting up silly stats because they are elite. You think you could plunk Ryan down in Denver and give him 583 attempts and he'd be off and running?

You also make the same mistake as Art by referencing Peyton's early career numbers vs. Ryan's early career. Three guys had 30+ TD in 2001. Three guys had 40+ TD in 2011. Different era. Stop looking at fantasy stats and look at the situation. I mean, a couple years ago no one would've argued that Rivers was borderline elite. Now people like Art think it's ridiculous to consider him better than Ryan. What a difference a fantasy season makes. Rivers has seen his ADP crash and now Ryan is considered elite. Seriously consider flip flopping him and Flacco. Not a single person here would be calling Ryan elite if he was stuck in Baltimore throwing the ball 530 times. Fantasy stats have totally warped people's perceptions of players. Stafford was an elite QB a year ago in this forum. I said he wasn't, people jeered at me the same as you do now.

Here are a few seasons much like Ryan's fifth season (615-4719-32-14) that were not accomplished by guys considered elite and was done with lesser receivers:

478-4009-34-11 (Rivers 3rd season as a starter)

541-4710-30-13 (Rivers 5th season as a starter)

583-4770-29-15 (Schaub 3rd season as a starter)

616-4526-25-18 (Cutler 2nd season as a starter)

520-4035-28-13 (Palmer 3rd season as a starter)

Obviously Rivers and Palmer were not able to achieve the yardage due to 100 less passes thrown, but the touchdowns per attempt are better. Fantasy stats and situation make a huge difference in public opinion. Is there no one you think is overrated in the NFL due to their situation? Try to mention it a thread related to that player and people will jump all over you. It's comical.

And for the record, I'm not saying there are 17 guys better than him. Just that he's in the same talent group as guys like Eli and Flacco, but he's in a much better situation. Feel free to provide your QB talent tiers, although I'm certain it will greatly resemble the consensus fantasy football ADP list.

Mr Ninja,

Do you watch football, I do

Have you watched Mr Rivers play, I would say he isn't an NFL QB based on last years play. He has a poor throwing motion(looks like a shotputter ) his throws bounced off the ground or where no where near his targets all year.

As a QB I would look for Arm Strength, Accuracy and Leadership and Ryan has Rivers beat on all three of these

 

[Bayhawks]

No offense, but this doesn't make sense. If you want to argue that Ryan isn't "elite," that's one thing (although I'd disagree), but to suggest that there are between 11-17 QBs better than him is laughable.

You list Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, and Brady as elite, and cite Ryan's "situation" as the only reason he "compiles" stats.

Brees' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He has Colston, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and a system that lets him throw the ball 40 times almost every game.

Rodgers' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He had/has Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley, a crap running game and a HC who relies on Rodgers.

Peyton situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He IS the offense in Denver. He essentially calls the plays on the field. Thomas and Decker aren't a bad WR combo, either.

Brady's situation is comparable/better than Ryan. Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, plus a coach who thinks you should treat a 28 point lead like you're down by 10 and keep throwing? QBs probably hate that kind of game plan.

So you have these QBs as elite. Each of them are more "veteran" than Ryan (although Rodgers became the starter in Ryan's rookie year). All their "situations" are comparable.

None of those QBs had a higher completion percentage than Ryan in 2012, only two had a higher YPA, & only two had more passing yards. Ryan had the fewest passing TDs amongst the five, but of the other 4, Manning only exceeded Ryan's 32 TD passes once in his first 5 years, it took Rodgers 4 years (as a starter) to hit that mark, and Brady and Brees didn't hit that number in their first 5 years.

The fact is that Ryan is very close to that group, if not a part of it. The only thing holding him back is TDs. If he can throw 3-5 more TDs this year (which I think he can/will, based on becoming more experienced, and his career progression thus far), while maintaining (if not improving) those other numbers, he will be solidly in the elite tier.

Since I expect Jones to replace White as the #1 option this year, I'll project:

160 targets

89 catches (56% catch rate)

1350 yards (15.2 YPR)]

13 TDs

That's hardly being "held back" by his QB.

Look, you are clearly under the influence of fantasy football stats so I won't be able to reason with you. Your logic is laughable for how you rationalize Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees' situations being better/comparable to Ryan's. Being the offense with no running threat does not actually make it a better situation for a QB. And yes, all those receiving corps are pretty good, but they don't match Ryan's trio. I think Brees has by far the worst trio since you had to throw in a running back. You didn't even try to count Tamme/Dreessen for Peyton's third.

Those guys are all making their WRs better, whereas I think Ryan is being towed along behind his. Their situations appear comparable because they are putting up silly stats because they are elite. You think you could plunk Ryan down in Denver and give him 583 attempts and he'd be off and running?

You also make the same mistake as Art by referencing Peyton's early career numbers vs. Ryan's early career. Three guys had 30+ TD in 2001. Three guys had 40+ TD in 2011. Different era. Stop looking at fantasy stats and look at the situation. I mean, a couple years ago no one would've argued that Rivers was borderline elite. Now people like Art think it's ridiculous to consider him better than Ryan. What a difference a fantasy season makes. Rivers has seen his ADP crash and now Ryan is considered elite. Seriously consider flip flopping him and Flacco. Not a single person here would be calling Ryan elite if he was stuck in Baltimore throwing the ball 530 times. Fantasy stats have totally warped people's perceptions of players. Stafford was an elite QB a year ago in this forum. I said he wasn't, people jeered at me the same as you do now.

Here are a few seasons much like Ryan's fifth season (615-4719-32-14) that were not accomplished by guys considered elite and was done with lesser receivers:

478-4009-34-11 (Rivers 3rd season as a starter)

541-4710-30-13 (Rivers 5th season as a starter)

583-4770-29-15 (Schaub 3rd season as a starter)

616-4526-25-18 (Cutler 2nd season as a starter)

520-4035-28-13 (Palmer 3rd season as a starter)

Obviously Rivers and Palmer were not able to achieve the yardage due to 100 less passes thrown, but the touchdowns per attempt are better. Fantasy stats and situation make a huge difference in public opinion. Is there no one you think is overrated in the NFL due to their situation? Try to mention it a thread related to that player and people will jump all over you. It's comical.

And for the record, I'm not saying there are 17 guys better than him. Just that he's in the same talent group as guys like Eli and Flacco, but he's in a much better situation. Feel free to provide your QB talent tiers, although I'm certain it will greatly resemble the consensus fantasy football ADP list.

What?

I only referenced Peyton (and the other QBs) TD numbers to demonstrate that younger QBs, even great, HOF-caliber QBs don't usually come in and throw 35+ TDs, no matter how talented they are. It usually takes time for QBs to demonstrate that level of proficiency in reading defenses, audibling, the speed of NFL players, and understanding their own offenses.

Without comprehending what I was posting, you ridiculed it for comparing apples to oranges, as the NFL is different now than it was then, yet you proceed to compare Ryan NOW to other QBs from years ago. So, evidently when you want to reference stats, it makes sense, but when anyone else does it, it's wrong? Uh, OK.

As to their situations, you are dead wrong. It doesn't matter if the 3rd "receiving threat" is a WR, RB, or TE; the defense has to account for them, and Peyton (and Ryan, and Brady, and Brees, and Rodgers) finds the best option more often than not.

You don't like Ryan, we get it. You have Jones projected lower than myself (and some others) because of that, we get it. You choose the stats/facts that support your position, we get it. Doesn't make you right (doesn't make you wrong either). TIme will tell.

 

[Art Vandalay]

No offense, but this doesn't make sense. If you want to argue that Ryan isn't "elite," that's one thing (although I'd disagree), but to suggest that there are between 11-17 QBs better than him is laughable.

You list Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, and Brady as elite, and cite Ryan's "situation" as the only reason he "compiles" stats.

Brees' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He has Colston, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and a system that lets him throw the ball 40 times almost every game.

Rodgers' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He had/has Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley, a crap running game and a HC who relies on Rodgers.

Peyton situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He IS the offense in Denver. He essentially calls the plays on the field. Thomas and Decker aren't a bad WR combo, either.

Brady's situation is comparable/better than Ryan. Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, plus a coach who thinks you should treat a 28 point lead like you're down by 10 and keep throwing? QBs probably hate that kind of game plan.

So you have these QBs as elite. Each of them are more "veteran" than Ryan (although Rodgers became the starter in Ryan's rookie year). All their "situations" are comparable.

None of those QBs had a higher completion percentage than Ryan in 2012, only two had a higher YPA, & only two had more passing yards. Ryan had the fewest passing TDs amongst the five, but of the other 4, Manning only exceeded Ryan's 32 TD passes once in his first 5 years, it took Rodgers 4 years (as a starter) to hit that mark, and Brady and Brees didn't hit that number in their first 5 years.

The fact is that Ryan is very close to that group, if not a part of it. The only thing holding him back is TDs. If he can throw 3-5 more TDs this year (which I think he can/will, based on becoming more experienced, and his career progression thus far), while maintaining (if not improving) those other numbers, he will be solidly in the elite tier.

Since I expect Jones to replace White as the #1 option this year, I'll project:

160 targets

89 catches (56% catch rate)

1350 yards (15.2 YPR)]

13 TDs

That's hardly being "held back" by his QB.

Look, you are clearly under the influence of fantasy football stats so I won't be able to reason with you. Your logic is laughable for how you rationalize Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees' situations being better/comparable to Ryan's. Being the offense with no running threat does not actually make it a better situation for a QB. And yes, all those receiving corps are pretty good, but they don't match Ryan's trio. I think Brees has by far the worst trio since you had to throw in a running back. You didn't even try to count Tamme/Dreessen for Peyton's third.

Those guys are all making their WRs better, whereas I think Ryan is being towed along behind his. Their situations appear comparable because they are putting up silly stats because they are elite. You think you could plunk Ryan down in Denver and give him 583 attempts and he'd be off and running?

You also make the same mistake as Art by referencing Peyton's early career numbers vs. Ryan's early career. Three guys had 30+ TD in 2001. Three guys had 40+ TD in 2011. Different era. Stop looking at fantasy stats and look at the situation. I mean, a couple years ago no one would've argued that Rivers was borderline elite. Now people like Art think it's ridiculous to consider him better than Ryan. What a difference a fantasy season makes. Rivers has seen his ADP crash and now Ryan is considered elite. Seriously consider flip flopping him and Flacco. Not a single person here would be calling Ryan elite if he was stuck in Baltimore throwing the ball 530 times. Fantasy stats have totally warped people's perceptions of players. Stafford was an elite QB a year ago in this forum. I said he wasn't, people jeered at me the same as you do now.

Here are a few seasons much like Ryan's fifth season (615-4719-32-14) that were not accomplished by guys considered elite and was done with lesser receivers:

478-4009-34-11 (Rivers 3rd season as a starter)

541-4710-30-13 (Rivers 5th season as a starter)

583-4770-29-15 (Schaub 3rd season as a starter)

616-4526-25-18 (Cutler 2nd season as a starter)

520-4035-28-13 (Palmer 3rd season as a starter)

Obviously Rivers and Palmer were not able to achieve the yardage due to 100 less passes thrown, but the touchdowns per attempt are better. Fantasy stats and situation make a huge difference in public opinion. Is there no one you think is overrated in the NFL due to their situation? Try to mention it a thread related to that player and people will jump all over you. It's comical.

And for the record, I'm not saying there are 17 guys better than him. Just that he's in the same talent group as guys like Eli and Flacco, but he's in a much better situation. Feel free to provide your QB talent tiers, although I'm certain it will greatly resemble the consensus fantasy football ADP list.

What?I only referenced Peyton (and the other QBs) TD numbers to demonstrate that younger QBs, even great, HOF-caliber QBs don't usually come in and throw 35+ TDs, no matter how talented they are. It usually takes time for QBs to demonstrate that level of proficiency in reading defenses, audibling, the speed of NFL players, and understanding their own offenses.

Without comprehending what I was posting, you ridiculed it for comparing apples to oranges, as the NFL is different now than it was then, yet you proceed to compare Ryan NOW to other QBs from years ago. So, evidently when you want to reference stats, it makes sense, but when anyone else does it, it's wrong? Uh, OK.

As to their situations, you are dead wrong. It doesn't matter if the 3rd "receiving threat" is a WR, RB, or TE; the defense has to account for them, and Peyton (and Ryan, and Brady, and Brees, and Rodgers) finds the best option more often than not.

You don't like Ryan, we get it. You have Jones projected lower than myself (and some others) because of that, we get it. You choose the stats/facts that support your position, we get it. Doesn't make you right (doesn't make you wrong either). TIme will tell.

Very well said

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Really? Those are the situations you are going to compare? First of all, you completely missed the point about supporting cast. Brady never had a trio like Ryan has. Moss + Welker was nice, but throwing 10 yard passes to Welker is not how you rack up yards and touchdowns. Second, this is a different era. You know how many 4,000 yard passers there were in 2001? Two. 2002? Four. 2011? Ten. 2012? Eleven. There were more 5,000 yard passer last year than there were 4,000 yard passers in 2001.

Ryan is not even close to elite. Considering there are 32 teams in the NFL, I think the top 11 are above average, the next 10 are average, and then there are 11 below average. I do not consider Ryan a top 11 QB. I do consider his situation #1, though. I really think he is of the same ilk as Flacco. The only difference is passing attempts, surrounding talent, and system. Flacco throws the ball less than Ryan and a third of his receptions have been to running backs in the Cam Cameron system.

Elite: Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, Brady

Better than Ryan: Roethlisberger, Romo, Newton, Luck, Rivers

Probably Better: Griffin, Wilson

Sam Tier as Ryan: Eli, Stafford, Cutler, Schaub, Flacco, Freeman

Not sure where to put Kaepernick yet

Don't be too swayed by arbitrary stats like 4,000 yards. Keep in mind some guys throw the ball WAY less than Ryan (Rivers hit 4k with 478 attempts, Newton hit 4k with 517 attempts his rookie year, Ben hit 4.3k with only 506). And keep in mind that some guys are dealing with WAY less talent. You think Matt Ryan would magically eclipse 4,000 passing yards on the Steelers when throwing the ball 450 times a year with Hines Ward as your #1? Hell no.

Before I get started, I'm not going to even attempt to compare what QBs have the better WRs (now or historically). It's often subjective. However, your adamance in other posts, that Ryan currently has the best WR combo in the NFL (over the other cohort of QBs), is nonsense. All of the QBs in the below analysis, for at least a few years, had top 10 WR combos in the NFL. To even hint that Ryan somehow has the best weapons by a landslide, is complete crap. That said, let's get on with the "numbers"!

I did some analysis on the top 7 QBs from your list above. Players analyzed:

Aaron Rodgers

Peyton Manning

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Matt Ryan

Ben Roethlisberger

Philip Rivers

Leaving out Newton and Luck (they have not played 5 seasons), and Romo (got tired of pulling data). I attempted the most accurate apples to apples comparison by analyzing the first 5 years that each player started. Of the 7 players selected for this analysis, four are currently (and have been) the consensus "elite" QBs in the NFL (Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees). Two more are veterans who you deemed "better" than Ryan (Ruthlessraper and Rivers). And finally, Ryan himself.

Notable fact: of the 7 QBs selected, only Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan started as rookies. The other four, (Rivers, Brady, Rodgers and Brees), each had at least 1 year watching and learning behind a veteran. Rodgers, arguably the best overall statistically (based on this 5 year analysis), did not start until his 4th season in the NFL.

Here is the raw data sorted descending by TD:INT (= TD/INT):

PLAYER Season Exp GS Comp Att Pct Yds Avg TD INT TD:INT

Aaron Rodgers 4 7 15 343 502 68% 4,643 9.2 45 6 7.50

Aaron Rodgers 5 8 16 371 552 67% 4,295 7.8 39 8 4.88

Aaron Rodgers 2 5 16 350 541 65% 4,434 8.2 30 7 4.29

Aaron Rodgers 3 6 15 312 475 66% 3,922 8.3 28 11 2.55

Aaron Rodgers 1 4 16 341 546 62% 4,038 7.4 28 13 2.15

Ben Roethlisberger 4 4 15 264 404 65% 3,154 7.8 32 11 2.91

Ben Roethlisberger 2 2 12 168 268 63% 2,385 8.9 17 9 1.89

Ben Roethlisberger 1 1 13 196 295 66% 2,621 8.9 17 11 1.55

Ben Roethlisberger 5 5 16 281 469 60% 3,301 7.0 17 15 1.13

Ben Roethlisberger 3 3 15 280 469 60% 3,513 7.5 18 23 0.78

Drew Brees 3 4 15 262 400 66% 3,159 7.9 27 7 3.86

Drew Brees 5 6 16 356 554 64% 4,418 8.0 26 11 2.36

Drew Brees 4 5 16 323 500 65% 3,576 7.2 24 15 1.60

Drew Brees 1 2 16 320 526 61% 3,284 6.2 17 16 1.06

Drew Brees 2 3 11 205 356 58% 2,108 5.9 11 15 0.73

Matt Ryan 3 3 16 357 571 63% 3,705 6.5 28 9 3.11

Matt Ryan 4 4 16 347 566 61% 4,177 7.4 29 12 2.42

Matt Ryan 5 5 16 422 615 69% 4,719 7.7 32 14 2.29

Matt Ryan 2 2 14 263 451 58% 2,916 6.5 22 14 1.57

Matt Ryan 1 1 16 265 434 61% 3,440 7.9 16 11 1.45

Peyton Manning 3 3 16 357 571 63% 4,413 7.7 33 15 2.20

Peyton Manning 2 2 16 331 533 62% 4,135 7.8 26 15 1.73

Peyton Manning 5 5 16 392 591 66% 4,200 7.1 27 19 1.42

Peyton Manning 4 4 16 343 547 63% 4,131 7.6 26 23 1.13

Peyton Manning 1 1 16 326 575 57% 3,739 6.5 26 28 0.93

Philip Rivers 4 6 16 317 486 65% 4,254 8.8 28 9 3.11

Philip Rivers 3 5 16 312 478 65% 4,009 8.4 34 11 3.09

Philip Rivers 1 3 16 284 460 62% 3,388 7.4 22 9 2.44

Philip Rivers 5 7 16 357 541 66% 4,710 8.7 30 13 2.31

Philip Rivers 2 4 16 277 460 60% 3,152 6.9 21 15 1.40

Tom Brady 2 3 16 373 601 62% 3,764 6.3 28 14 2.00

Tom Brady 4 5 16 288 474 61% 3,692 7.8 28 14 2.00

Tom Brady 3 4 16 317 527 60% 3,620 6.9 23 12 1.92

Tom Brady 5 6 16 334 530 63% 4,110 7.8 26 14 1.86

Tom Brady 1 2 14 264 413 64% 2,843 6.9 18 12 1.50

Now, you can play around with sorting and ranking and support many different arguments based on the metrics detail above. You can formulate your own metrics based on experience etc... Sort by "best" at any given metric and you will see a variety of outcomes. Point being, you could probably find a few sortable metrics to support any of these 7 as being "elite" to be honest and Matt Ryan is most definitely in that discussion. Roethilisberger, from a pure fantasy perspective - is the worst

As it's sorted above (TD:INT), Ryan is basically top 3 if you take each player's "BEST" season of his first 5 as a starter. So while obviously Rodger's best 3 (of 5) seasons trump anyone else's best 1 (of 5), Ryan is has the 3rd best (of 5) season of 7 total participants. Keep in mind, this data pull is strictly the first 5 year as STARTER, regardless of when the player started. That's why the "Exp" (experience) column is important.

Again, supporting my claim that Ryan is on a path toward greatness, ranking anywhere in the top 5 in any given category, essentially puts him right outside of the current elite (top 4 of Rodgers, Brady, Manning and Brees).

So, I'm not going to bend and twist the data every which way because I think the data speaks for itself - which is that Matt Ryan should be heavily considered as a top 3 QB in dynasty over the next several years. Based on his first 5 years as a starter compared to the other elite QBs, Ryan is right there with the pack and even leading several categories. Ryan has a better than good chance to end up as one of the top QBs of his era.

E2A: After several attempts, I cannot figure out an easy way to get data to display as a table (from excel). If anyone could assist, that would be great!

 

[JPeso]

93 receptions / 1400 receiving yards / 10 TD ; 50 rush yards = 298 PPR ; 18.6 PPR PPG

 

[FF Ninja]

Before I get started, I'm not going to even attempt to compare what QBs have the better WRs (now or historically). It's often subjective. However, your adamance in other posts, that Ryan currently has the best WR combo in the NFL (over the other cohort of QBs), is nonsense. All of the QBs in the below analysis, for at least a few years, had top 10 WR combos in the NFL. To even hint that Ryan somehow has the best weapons by a landslide, is complete crap. That said, let's get on with the "numbers"!Now, you can play around with sorting and ranking and support many different arguments based on the metrics detail above. You can formulate your own metrics based on experience etc... Sort by "best" at any given metric and you will see a variety of outcomes. Point being, you could probably find a few sortable metrics to support any of these 7 as being "elite" to be honest and Matt Ryan is most definitely in that discussion. Roethilisberger, from a pure fantasy perspective - is the worst

You did a lot of work, which I appreciate, but you seem to have completely missed the point. I thought I was being pretty clear that I was not talking about it from a fantasy perspective. Big Ben was obviously the worst from a fantasy perspective because he had a nice combination of low passing attempts and missed games. I've been saying that if you put a guy like Roethlisberger in Matt Ryan's place, you don't miss a beat. You probably get better results. Ryan has exceeded Ben's career high in pass attempts in each of his last 3 seasons. Of course he's going to have better fantasy numbers. Ben has also only played one 16 game season.

You also mentioned that all of the guys on the list had a top 10 WR combo at one point or another. A top 10 combo is not the same as a combination of two top 10 WRs. You also neglect to mention TE, which I was pretty clearly including when referencing Julio/Roddy/Tony as the top trio in the league. Additionally, elite QBs make good WRs look great. You think Colston puts up his numbers with Matt Ryan throwing him the ball instead of Brees? Of course not. I can only imagine the numbers Julio would put up if he had Drew Brees throwing him the ball instead of Matty Average.

 

[FF Ninja]

Without comprehending what I was posting, you ridiculed it for comparing apples to oranges, as the NFL is different now than it was then, yet you proceed to compare Ryan NOW to other QBs from years ago. So, evidently when you want to reference stats, it makes sense, but when anyone else does it, it's wrong? Uh, OK.

Talk about a lack of comprehension! What you clearly don't understand is that it's not apples to oranges. What I thought was obvious in that discussion was that we have entered a passing friendly era. Comparing yardage and TD totals to guys 10 years ago to "prove" a new guy is a better/similar QB to those players is a foolish endeavor. However, what I did was point out some similar seasons from QBs a few years ago. Had they been 10 years+ then those similar statistical seasons would be even more impressive because they wouldn't be from such a pass friendly era. The numbers weren't actually that old, but I hope you now grasp the difference between that and apples/oranges.

So uh ok back at ya.

 

[silentcoach]

Too much bickering in this thread. .

The key to identifying wrs is (1) talent and (2) opportunity.

Julio has both. White's targets decreased from 191 to 153 (rookie to second year) suggesting that Julio is already cutting into White's targets but NOT White's production (as White's state were identically the same the two years).

Julio had 79 rec 1198 yds and 10 tds on only 8.6 targets per game. That is crazy efficient. For comparisons sake, Marshall had 118 rec and 1508 yds and 11 tds on 12 targets per game. If I had to pick from these 2, I'd go with Julio over Marshall because both have opportunity, but Julio's talent/efficiency is better. Marshall's targets have no where to go but stay steady or go down (doubtful it increases, 12 is a ton). Julio has a less opporunity that his targets go down (debatable). On the same token, and more importantly, can you imagine how Julio's stats would be if his targets raised marginally?

not to mention that Julio was having hand issues for a game or two and then leg issues when he was efficient last year.

Julio had 8 tds his rookie year on 13 games and 10 tds the following year.

Watch the game versus SF.

The projections below are based on what I think he is guaranteed to get--like a floor, i suppose. Anything else is gravy, and I think there is a lot of gravy that can occur--that is what makes Julio a great pick. He has no where to go but up, imo.

Projections

85 rec 1250 yds and 12 tds

 

[meyerj31]

Too much bickering in this thread. .

The key to identifying wrs is (1) talent and (2) opportunity.

Julio has both. White's targets decreased from 191 to 153 (rookie to second year) suggesting that Julio is already cutting into White's targets but NOT White's production (as White's state were identically the same the two years).

Julio had 79 rec 1198 yds and 10 tds on only 8.6 targets per game. That is crazy efficient. For comparisons sake, Marshall had 118 rec and 1508 yds and 11 tds on 12 targets per game. If I had to pick from these 2, I'd go with Julio over Marshall because both have opportunity, but Julio's talent/efficiency is better. Marshall's targets have no where to go but stay steady or go down (doubtful it increases, 12 is a ton). Julio has a less opporunity that his targets go down (debatable). On the same token, and more importantly, can you imagine how Julio's stats would be if his targets raised marginally?

not to mention that Julio was having hand issues for a game or two and then leg issues when he was efficient last year.

Julio had 8 tds his rookie year on 13 games and 10 tds the following year.

Watch the game versus SF.

The projections below are based on what I think he is guaranteed to get--like a floor, i suppose. Anything else is gravy, and I think there is a lot of gravy that can occur--that is what makes Julio a great pick. He has no where to go but up, imo.

Projections

85 rec 1250 yds and 12 tds

Simple, concise, good points. Very good.

His floor is probably the highest of anyone but Marshall/Dez/Calvin/Green, but unfortunately his upside is capped because of the diverse targets available in that offense. I don't think anyone questions that if Julio was on the Bears instead of Marshall that Julio would be a WR1 candidate. But he's not, so we have to take that into consideration. He's worth of a late 2nd round pick just because he's a really safe bet to produce top 12 numbers, but if it's between him and selection someone with massive upside and less skilled competition like Marshall or Dez, then I'm taking either of those two first. Assuming, of course, that the first two WRs taken will be Calvin/Green in pretty much every draft.

 

[Bayhawks]

Without comprehending what I was posting, you ridiculed it for comparing apples to oranges, as the NFL is different now than it was then, yet you proceed to compare Ryan NOW to other QBs from years ago. So, evidently when you want to reference stats, it makes sense, but when anyone else does it, it's wrong? Uh, OK.

Talk about a lack of comprehension! What you clearly don't understand is that it's not apples to oranges. What I thought was obvious in that discussion was that we have entered a passing friendly era. Comparing yardage and TD totals to guys 10 years ago to "prove" a new guy is a better/similar QB to those players is a foolish endeavor. However, what I did was point out some similar seasons from QBs a few years ago. Had they been 10 years+ then those similar statistical seasons would be even more impressive because they wouldn't be from such a pass friendly era. The numbers weren't actually that old, but I hope you now grasp the difference between that and apples/oranges.

So uh ok back at ya.

The only season that you cited of a "non-elite" QB (according to you) that actually had a year nearly as good as Ryan's last year was Rivers in 2010. And at that time, Rivers WAS considered elite, or at the very least, in the tier right below it. He has had several less than stellar years since then, but that doesn't change the fact that he was, at the time, considered to be one of the best QBs in the NFL. So, yeah, great point.

And again, I wasn't comparing their numbers (yards and TDs) to Ryan's; rather I was comparing their career path (development). Each QB improved in their early years to get to that "elite" status that you are so hung up on. It is incredibly rare for any young QB to be "elite" very early on. None of the QBs who you cite as being elite NOW were doing significantly better in their first 5 years than Ryan has in his. That was the point, which you seem unable to comprehend.

And since Ryan is on a very similar career path to those elite QBs you list, I find it reasonable to assume that Julio Jones will benefit from Ryan's skills and Jones will be a top WR in 2013, and likely for years to come.

 

[rizzler]

Im gonna #### on all of you with a meager 1080yds but massive 17tds.

 

[NIU Kicker]

Lot of bickering in here over a consensus 85/1200/12

 

[King of the Jungle]

Im gonna #### on all of you with a meager 1080yds but massive 17tds.

That sound is my mind blowing.

 

[rizzler]

Im gonna #### on all of you with a meager 1080yds but massive 17tds.

That sound is my mind blowing.

That's the sound of 8-9 in the box trying to stop SJax in the redzone, and Ryan tossing a lob pass to the corner of the endzone where only Jones can catch it

My visions are vivid

 

[heidbrink]

I like the bickering. A lot of good points are being made in this thread and I appreciate that. Cutting back on the contentiousness and the :Laughing: would be good though.

 

[Dez]

My main point about Julio is I wish Cleveland had drafted him.

They got (is this right?):

Phil Taylor

Greg Little

Marecic (RB)

Weeden

JM Johnson (LB)

As a Browns fan that sucks but as a fantasy football player we should be thankful Julio went to Atlanta he would not be as nearly good in Cleveland.

 

[FF Ninja]

Without comprehending what I was posting, you ridiculed it for comparing apples to oranges, as the NFL is different now than it was then, yet you proceed to compare Ryan NOW to other QBs from years ago. So, evidently when you want to reference stats, it makes sense, but when anyone else does it, it's wrong? Uh, OK.

Talk about a lack of comprehension! What you clearly don't understand is that it's not apples to oranges. What I thought was obvious in that discussion was that we have entered a passing friendly era. Comparing yardage and TD totals to guys 10 years ago to "prove" a new guy is a better/similar QB to those players is a foolish endeavor. However, what I did was point out some similar seasons from QBs a few years ago. Had they been 10 years+ then those similar statistical seasons would be even more impressive because they wouldn't be from such a pass friendly era. The numbers weren't actually that old, but I hope you now grasp the difference between that and apples/oranges.

So uh ok back at ya.

The only season that you cited of a "non-elite" QB (according to you) that actually had a year nearly as good as Ryan's last year was Rivers in 2010. And at that time, Rivers WAS considered elite, or at the very least, in the tier right below it. He has had several less than stellar years since then, but that doesn't change the fact that he was, at the time, considered to be one of the best QBs in the NFL. So, yeah, great point.

You only grasp and/or address half the point each time. Those other seasons that weren't quite as good from a yards+TD standpoint were done with significantly less passing attempts and a worse receiving corps than Ryan had, and they were done by guys you don't consider elite.

It's funny you say Rivers was elite in 2010, but he's had "several" less than stellar years since then. First of all, he's only had two seasons since 2010 just like everyone else. Second, one of those years was 582-4624-27-20. His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse.

So yeah, it was a great point and you just proved it. You (and most people here) base your version of elite on perception derived from fantasy success and aggregate numbers. Rivers 2011 season was a flop compared to 2010, but it wasn't that bad. However, when Norv completely lost the team last year everyone jumped off the bandwagon and suddenly the guy is garbage in your eyes. The guy is 31 years old! If he was elite in 2010, he's still elite. His situation has just worsened while Ryan's has gotten better. The skill hasn't changed.

And again, I wasn't comparing their numbers (yards and TDs) to Ryan's; rather I was comparing their career path (development). Each QB improved in their early years to get to that "elite" status that you are so hung up on. It is incredibly rare for any young QB to be "elite" very early on. None of the QBs who you cite as being elite NOW were doing significantly better in their first 5 years than Ryan has in his. That was the point, which you seem unable to comprehend.

And since Ryan is on a very similar career path to those elite QBs you list, I find it reasonable to assume that Julio Jones will benefit from Ryan's skills and Jones will be a top WR in 2013, and likely for years to come.

I'm not hung up on it. People just took great offense to my casual mention that he's not, so now I'm stuck defending it to people who don't want to understand my points. The QBs I listed as currently elite were all in worse situations than Ryan yet actually were doing better relative to their peers. Instead of White/Jones/Gonzo, Brady had Branch/Givens/Watson in his 5th season as a starter yet was 3rd in TDs and 1st in yards. Manning had a much better combo of Harrison/Wayne/Pollard and was 1 TD away from leading the league and 3rd in yards. Brees had VJax/Parker/Gates and led the league in yards and was 2nd in TDs. Rodgers has started the same number of seasons as Ryan and has been better than him each season.

So yes, all of those guys were setting themselves apart with mostly mediocre weapons as their disposal. Ryan is just a guy who is chunking the ball 600 times a year to the best trio in the game. I'm not saying he's bad, but he's not a top 10 QB, either.

I like Julio Jones and think he'll be a great fantasy receiver, but he's probably not going to thrive like he would if he was playing with Rodgers. Can you imagine what Rodgers would do if he was asked to throw the ball 600 times to these guys?! He could break Brady's TD record and Julio could break Moss'. Sound crazy? Brady threw 50 TDs in 578 attempts. In 2011, Rodgers threw 45 in 502 attempts. That's all I was saying when I said Julio would be held back by his QB. I really like his talent. I think he could put up some Randy Moss seasons if he had an elite QB. Instead, he'll suffer the Andre Johnson fate which is still obviously fine for fantasy owners. Keep in mind my projection was 85/1275/11. Healthy numbers.

 

[Eminence]

Kind of like in Calvin Johnson's earlier years, we were just waiting for him to explode. Same with Julio Jones, sooner or later the guy is going to come around with a monster season and you're going to be very glad he was on your team.

...same thing with Demaryius Thomas though, too.

 

[FF Ninja]

Kind of like in Calvin Johnson's earlier years, we were just waiting for him to explode. Same with Julio Jones, sooner or later the guy is going to come around with a monster season and you're going to be very glad he was on your team.

...same thing with Demaryius Thomas though, too.

He finished WR3 in his 2nd year. 78/1331/12

 

[Bayhawks]

You only grasp and/or address half the point each time. Those other seasons that weren't quite as good from a yards+TD standpoint were done with significantly less passing attempts and a worse receiving corps than Ryan had, and they were done by guys you don't consider elite.
It's funny you say Rivers was elite in 2010, but he's had "several" less than stellar years since then. First of all, he's only had two seasons since 2010 just like everyone else. Second, one of those years was 582-4624-27-20. His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse.

So yeah, it was a great point and you just proved it. You (and most people here) base your version of elite on perception derived from fantasy success and aggregate numbers. Rivers 2011 season was a flop compared to 2010, but it wasn't that bad. However, when Norv completely lost the team last year everyone jumped off the bandwagon and suddenly the guy is garbage in your eyes. The guy is 31 years old! If he was elite in 2010, he's still elite. His situation has just worsened while Ryan's has gotten better. The skill hasn't changed.

1-Those seasons represented (in most cases) career years for those QBs. Ryan's 2012 season was merely another progression in his career. Since Ryan suffered from a slight sophomore slump, he has steadily increased his passing yards, YPA, TDs, etc. Those other QBs can't claim the same thing. But, you know who can? Elite QBs.

2-Rivers WAS considered to be an elite QB (or the tier just below, as I previously stated) before. He no longer is (both in fantasy, and in "real-life." His YPA had dropped almost 2 full yards, from 8.7 YPA in 2010, to 6.8 in 2012. I never said he was "garbage," just that he isn't elite anymore. That happens, football players get old, their skills erode, they get hurt, etc. Just because an individual was once considered elite doesn't mean he is there forever. That's just common sense. Also, when you said " His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse;" you were wrong. Ryan's YPA was 7.7 in 2012, Rivers' was 6.8 YPA. BTW-the "elite" QBs you mentioned: 8.0 YPA, 7.8 YPA, 7.7 YPA, and 7.6 YPA. Seems like Ryan is a lot closer to elite, at least with regards to YPA, than Rivers is close to Ryan, as you are trying to suggest.

I'm not hung up on it. People just took great offense to my casual mention that he's not, so now I'm stuck defending it to people who don't want to understand my points. The QBs I listed as currently elite were all in worse situations than Ryan yet actually were doing better relative to their peers. Instead of White/Jones/Gonzo, Brady had Branch/Givens/Watson in his 5th season as a starter yet was 3rd in TDs and 1st in yards. Manning had a much better combo of Harrison/Wayne/Pollard and was 1 TD away from leading the league and 3rd in yards. Brees had VJax/Parker/Gates and led the league in yards and was 2nd in TDs. Rodgers has started the same number of seasons as Ryan and has been better than him each season.

So yes, all of those guys were setting themselves apart with mostly mediocre weapons as their disposal. Ryan is just a guy who is chunking the ball 600 times a year to the best trio in the game. I'm not saying he's bad, but he's not a top 10 QB, either.

I like Julio Jones and think he'll be a great fantasy receiver, but he's probably not going to thrive like he would if he was playing with Rodgers. Can you imagine what Rodgers would do if he was asked to throw the ball 600 times to these guys?! He could break Brady's TD record and Julio could break Moss'. Sound crazy? Brady threw 50 TDs in 578 attempts. In 2011, Rodgers threw 45 in 502 attempts. That's all I was saying when I said Julio would be held back by his QB. I really like his talent. I think he could put up some Randy Moss seasons if he had an elite QB. Instead, he'll suffer the Andre Johnson fate which is still obviously fine for fantasy owners. Keep in mind my projection was 85/1275/11. Healthy numbers.

Again, we all get it: you don't like Ryan, and feel that he is going to prevent Jones from putting up "great" numbers. That is your opinion, and you are entitled to it. Doesn't make you right.

The facts/stats/numbers show that Ryan is on a similar career path to the QBs you noted as "elite." If he considers to evolve/improve (even at smaller rates), he will be a 70% completion, 8 YPA, 4800 yard, 35 TD QB in a year or two. Can I guarantee that will happen? No. Can you guarantee it won't? No. Does his career path compare favorably to those QBs who are in that range now? Absolutely.

 

[bigmarc27]

Also on Ryan, Dirk Koetter had a huge influence last year... Ryan had 50 more pass attempts and 75 more completions. Mularkey was predictable and stale with short passes everywhere. Koetter lets Ryan throw down the field and he had his best season yet.

 

[FF Ninja]

You only grasp and/or address half the point each time. Those other seasons that weren't quite as good from a yards+TD standpoint were done with significantly less passing attempts and a worse receiving corps than Ryan had, and they were done by guys you don't consider elite.
It's funny you say Rivers was elite in 2010, but he's had "several" less than stellar years since then. First of all, he's only had two seasons since 2010 just like everyone else. Second, one of those years was 582-4624-27-20. His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse.

So yeah, it was a great point and you just proved it. You (and most people here) base your version of elite on perception derived from fantasy success and aggregate numbers. Rivers 2011 season was a flop compared to 2010, but it wasn't that bad. However, when Norv completely lost the team last year everyone jumped off the bandwagon and suddenly the guy is garbage in your eyes. The guy is 31 years old! If he was elite in 2010, he's still elite. His situation has just worsened while Ryan's has gotten better. The skill hasn't changed.

1-Those seasons represented (in most cases) career years for those QBs. Ryan's 2012 season was merely another progression in his career. Since Ryan suffered from a slight sophomore slump, he has steadily increased his passing yards, YPA, TDs, etc. Those other QBs can't claim the same thing. But, you know who can? Elite QBs.

2-Rivers WAS considered to be an elite QB (or the tier just below, as I previously stated) before. He no longer is (both in fantasy, and in "real-life." His YPA had dropped almost 2 full yards, from 8.7 YPA in 2010, to 6.8 in 2012. I never said he was "garbage," just that he isn't elite anymore. That happens, football players get old, their skills erode, they get hurt, etc. Just because an individual was once considered elite doesn't mean he is there forever. That's just common sense. Also, when you said " His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse;" you were wrong. Ryan's YPA was 7.7 in 2012, Rivers' was 6.8 YPA. BTW-the "elite" QBs you mentioned: 8.0 YPA, 7.8 YPA, 7.7 YPA, and 7.6 YPA. Seems like Ryan is a lot closer to elite, at least with regards to YPA, than Rivers is close to Ryan, as you are trying to suggest.

1-It was also his 5th season and his career year to date. These were those guys' career years because that was the season they threw the most passes in most cases. Schaub's 3rd season as a starter was just as good as Ryan's 5th, so let's not get too excited about Ryan's progression. Why did Schaub's numbers come down the next years? Because they started running more, passing less, and asking less of him. Not because he got worse. Thus, here we are back at situation dictating what people consider talent.

2-Yes, I get that you are saying "was" as in past tense, I was just pointing out how silly it was that you said Rivers had "several" down years since 2010. There were only 2 seasons and one of them was pretty comparable to Ryan's 2012 which you consider elite. So apparently one down year is enough to strike a guy from elite (or just below elite) in your book. Good to know what kind of fickle analysis I'm up against here. For the record, Rivers was 30 last year, so you really think his skills eroded? It had nothing to do with the loss of OL talent, the loss of Vincent Jackson, Norv's coaching, etc? It was purely him suddenly losing talent? My point is that situations can drastically change from year to year, while talent only changes incrementally. Right now Ryan is in a top notch situation. There are probably a dozen other guys who could put up his numbers (or better) in the same situation.

When I said "this year" I was referring to the year I was just talking about. Read it again - I agree it wasn't worded the best, but I obviously know that 7.7>6.8

 

[SWC]

me and julio down in the endzone that is all that i am saying brohans that is all that i am saying

 

[bostonfred]

Rivers was 30 last year, so you really think his skills eroded? It had nothing to do with the loss of OL talent, the loss of Vincent Jackson, Norv's coaching, etc? It was purely him suddenly losing talent? My point is that situations can drastically change from year to year, while talent only changes incrementally.

Setting aside the bickering, this is a great and well stated point.

 

[Bayhawks]

You only grasp and/or address half the point each time. Those other seasons that weren't quite as good from a yards+TD standpoint were done with significantly less passing attempts and a worse receiving corps than Ryan had, and they were done by guys you don't consider elite.
It's funny you say Rivers was elite in 2010, but he's had "several" less than stellar years since then. First of all, he's only had two seasons since 2010 just like everyone else. Second, one of those years was 582-4624-27-20. His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse.

So yeah, it was a great point and you just proved it. You (and most people here) base your version of elite on perception derived from fantasy success and aggregate numbers. Rivers 2011 season was a flop compared to 2010, but it wasn't that bad. However, when Norv completely lost the team last year everyone jumped off the bandwagon and suddenly the guy is garbage in your eyes. The guy is 31 years old! If he was elite in 2010, he's still elite. His situation has just worsened while Ryan's has gotten better. The skill hasn't changed.

1-Those seasons represented (in most cases) career years for those QBs. Ryan's 2012 season was merely another progression in his career. Since Ryan suffered from a slight sophomore slump, he has steadily increased his passing yards, YPA, TDs, etc. Those other QBs can't claim the same thing. But, you know who can? Elite QBs.

2-Rivers WAS considered to be an elite QB (or the tier just below, as I previously stated) before. He no longer is (both in fantasy, and in "real-life." His YPA had dropped almost 2 full yards, from 8.7 YPA in 2010, to 6.8 in 2012. I never said he was "garbage," just that he isn't elite anymore. That happens, football players get old, their skills erode, they get hurt, etc. Just because an individual was once considered elite doesn't mean he is there forever. That's just common sense. Also, when you said " His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse;" you were wrong. Ryan's YPA was 7.7 in 2012, Rivers' was 6.8 YPA. BTW-the "elite" QBs you mentioned: 8.0 YPA, 7.8 YPA, 7.7 YPA, and 7.6 YPA. Seems like Ryan is a lot closer to elite, at least with regards to YPA, than Rivers is close to Ryan, as you are trying to suggest.

1-It was also his 5th season and his career year to date. These were those guys' career years because that was the season they threw the most passes in most cases. Schaub's 3rd season as a starter was just as good as Ryan's 5th, so let's not get too excited about Ryan's progression. Why did Schaub's numbers come down the next years? Because they started running more, passing less, and asking less of him. Not because he got worse. Thus, here we are back at situation dictating what people consider talent.

2-Yes, I get that you are saying "was" as in past tense, I was just pointing out how silly it was that you said Rivers had "several" down years since 2010. There were only 2 seasons and one of them was pretty comparable to Ryan's 2012 which you consider elite. So apparently one down year is enough to strike a guy from elite (or just below elite) in your book. Good to know what kind of fickle analysis I'm up against here. For the record, Rivers was 30 last year, so you really think his skills eroded? It had nothing to do with the loss of OL talent, the loss of Vincent Jackson, Norv's coaching, etc? It was purely him suddenly losing talent? My point is that situations can drastically change from year to year, while talent only changes incrementally. Right now Ryan is in a top notch situation. There are probably a dozen other guys who could put up his numbers (or better) in the same situation.

When I said "this year" I was referring to the year I was just talking about. Read it again - I agree it wasn't worded the best, but I obviously know that 7.7>6.8

1-You aren't completely correct in your assumptions about why Schaub never repeated his career year. The next season, he threw 9 fewer passes. That's not statistically significant. But his YPA, completion percentage, and TD/pass ratio all dropped off, and the team regressed, only winning 6 games. Prior to 2009, he had never attempted more than 400 passes in a season (and he only had 1 season where he was on pace for more than 500). The Texans decided to give him the reins, and while he responded with decent numbers, it didn't work for the Texans. They weren't winning enough, and they weren't being successful enough (playoffs/championships, etc). Plus, In the 2nd year removed from Schaub's career year, the Texans discovered this guy, Arian Foster, who is a pretty good RB, and they started to run more. Schaub also got hurt, again, (he has been a starter in 6 seasons, and hasn't been able to play a full season in 3 of them). So to sum up, Houston gave Schaub a chance to be "the guy," and that experiment failed, Schaub has a history of missing games, and the Texans have a pretty good RB (with a pretty good back-up). Ryan has led his team to the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons, while steadily improving his play/stats/numbers in each of the last 3 years, He doesn't have a history of missing games, and while Steven Jackson is an upgrade at RB, the Falcons aren't going to become a ground-based team. Your comparison to Schaub misses the mark. You think it is relevant, and you're entitled to your opinion, but there is no real substance there.

2-First, I don't think Ryan is in the tier with Rodgers, P Manning, Brady, Brees, YET. I think he is moving in that direction. Second, Rivers was elite in 2008-2010. He was completing 65% of his passes, had a YPA well over 8, and his TD-to-INT ratio . He was elite. In 2011, his play was MUCH worse. His completion % dipped, his YPA dipped, his TD-to-INT ratio tanked. I think he was injured, but nothing official was ever announced, to my knowledge. So, his 2011, which you think is "similar" to Ryan's 2012 is actually Rivers dropping off, and Ryan ascending. You talk about "fickle" analysis, but you continue to try to look at Ryan's 2012 in a vacuum, refusing to compare it to the career path the "elite" QBs you named.

For the last time, Ryan's career path is very similar to your "elite" QBs, and IMO, he will be looked at in that same vein in a year or two. You don't agree. Good for you. You think Jones' output will suffer b/c of his QB. Good for you. Continuing to harp on the same selectively chosen stats/numbers that reinforce that idea won't change the fact that Ryan is following the same career path that Peyton, Drew, Tom, etc followed.

We don't need to continue to discuss this. You have your opinion, and I have mine. Let's agree to disagree.

 

[Bayhawks]

Rivers was 30 last year, so you really think his skills eroded? It had nothing to do with the loss of OL talent, the loss of Vincent Jackson, Norv's coaching, etc? It was purely him suddenly losing talent? My point is that situations can drastically change from year to year, while talent only changes incrementally.

Setting aside the bickering, this is a great and well stated point.

Rivers was 29 the year before. His numbers declined significantly from when he was 28. He still had VJax then, Norv was still coaching then, etc. Sometime talent changes drastically, whether it be from injury, or just "hitting the wall." Rivers isn't the only guy it's happened to.

 

[bostonfred]

Rivers was 30 last year, so you really think his skills eroded? It had nothing to do with the loss of OL talent, the loss of Vincent Jackson, Norv's coaching, etc? It was purely him suddenly losing talent? My point is that situations can drastically change from year to year, while talent only changes incrementally.

Setting aside the bickering, this is a great and well stated point.

Rivers was 29 the year before. His numbers declined significantly from when he was 28. He still had VJax then, Norv was still coaching then, etc. Sometime talent changes drastically, whether it be from injury, or just "hitting the wall." Rivers isn't the only guy it's happened to.

I don't really want to get into an argument with you about this because you guys are hijacking the Julio Jones thread. But the word around the league was that Norv's passing offense, much like Mike Martz's, wasn't aging well. Norv is talented enough to rebuild that, especially in a new spot, but I think the offense deteriorated as much as Rivers did. Jaworski was talking today about how he thought Rivers had declined, too, but he said things like he had become tenuous. That's not a physical, age related decline. It's more likely to be a fear that he's going to be picked off again. And you can lay that at the feet of the system. Rivers may not mesh with the new system right away or at all, but I don't believe he "hit the wall".I know you disagree on this player, and that's fine. It's a worthwhile conversation about how to identify players who have a chance to "come back".

 

[SWC]

ryan will always be good not great sorry brohans dems is da bones like my main man the witch doctor used to say

 

[MrSoup]

me and julio down in the endzone that is all that i am saying brohans that is all that i am saying

heard that

 

[Andrew74]

This is a good Matt Ryan thread.

 

[FF Ninja]

You only grasp and/or address half the point each time. Those other seasons that weren't quite as good from a yards+TD standpoint were done with significantly less passing attempts and a worse receiving corps than Ryan had, and they were done by guys you don't consider elite.
It's funny you say Rivers was elite in 2010, but he's had "several" less than stellar years since then. First of all, he's only had two seasons since 2010 just like everyone else. Second, one of those years was 582-4624-27-20. His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse.

So yeah, it was a great point and you just proved it. You (and most people here) base your version of elite on perception derived from fantasy success and aggregate numbers. Rivers 2011 season was a flop compared to 2010, but it wasn't that bad. However, when Norv completely lost the team last year everyone jumped off the bandwagon and suddenly the guy is garbage in your eyes. The guy is 31 years old! If he was elite in 2010, he's still elite. His situation has just worsened while Ryan's has gotten better. The skill hasn't changed.

1-Those seasons represented (in most cases) career years for those QBs. Ryan's 2012 season was merely another progression in his career. Since Ryan suffered from a slight sophomore slump, he has steadily increased his passing yards, YPA, TDs, etc. Those other QBs can't claim the same thing. But, you know who can? Elite QBs.

2-Rivers WAS considered to be an elite QB (or the tier just below, as I previously stated) before. He no longer is (both in fantasy, and in "real-life." His YPA had dropped almost 2 full yards, from 8.7 YPA in 2010, to 6.8 in 2012. I never said he was "garbage," just that he isn't elite anymore. That happens, football players get old, their skills erode, they get hurt, etc. Just because an individual was once considered elite doesn't mean he is there forever. That's just common sense. Also, when you said " His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse;" you were wrong. Ryan's YPA was 7.7 in 2012, Rivers' was 6.8 YPA. BTW-the "elite" QBs you mentioned: 8.0 YPA, 7.8 YPA, 7.7 YPA, and 7.6 YPA. Seems like Ryan is a lot closer to elite, at least with regards to YPA, than Rivers is close to Ryan, as you are trying to suggest.

1-It was also his 5th season and his career year to date. These were those guys' career years because that was the season they threw the most passes in most cases. Schaub's 3rd season as a starter was just as good as Ryan's 5th, so let's not get too excited about Ryan's progression. Why did Schaub's numbers come down the next years? Because they started running more, passing less, and asking less of him. Not because he got worse. Thus, here we are back at situation dictating what people consider talent.

2-Yes, I get that you are saying "was" as in past tense, I was just pointing out how silly it was that you said Rivers had "several" down years since 2010. There were only 2 seasons and one of them was pretty comparable to Ryan's 2012 which you consider elite. So apparently one down year is enough to strike a guy from elite (or just below elite) in your book. Good to know what kind of fickle analysis I'm up against here. For the record, Rivers was 30 last year, so you really think his skills eroded? It had nothing to do with the loss of OL talent, the loss of Vincent Jackson, Norv's coaching, etc? It was purely him suddenly losing talent? My point is that situations can drastically change from year to year, while talent only changes incrementally. Right now Ryan is in a top notch situation. There are probably a dozen other guys who could put up his numbers (or better) in the same situation.

When I said "this year" I was referring to the year I was just talking about. Read it again - I agree it wasn't worded the best, but I obviously know that 7.7>6.8

1-You aren't completely correct in your assumptions about why Schaub never repeated his career year. The next season, he threw 9 fewer passes. That's not statistically significant. But his YPA, completion percentage, and TD/pass ratio all dropped off, and the team regressed, only winning 6 games. Prior to 2009, he had never attempted more than 400 passes in a season (and he only had 1 season where he was on pace for more than 500). The Texans decided to give him the reins, and while he responded with decent numbers, it didn't work for the Texans. They weren't winning enough, and they weren't being successful enough (playoffs/championships, etc). Plus, In the 2nd year removed from Schaub's career year, the Texans discovered this guy, Arian Foster, who is a pretty good RB, and they started to run more. Schaub also got hurt, again, (he has been a starter in 6 seasons, and hasn't been able to play a full season in 3 of them). So to sum up, Houston gave Schaub a chance to be "the guy," and that experiment failed, Schaub has a history of missing games, and the Texans have a pretty good RB (with a pretty good back-up). Ryan has led his team to the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons, while steadily improving his play/stats/numbers in each of the last 3 years, He doesn't have a history of missing games, and while Steven Jackson is an upgrade at RB, the Falcons aren't going to become a ground-based team. Your comparison to Schaub misses the mark. You think it is relevant, and you're entitled to your opinion, but there is no real substance there.

2-First, I don't think Ryan is in the tier with Rodgers, P Manning, Brady, Brees, YET. I think he is moving in that direction. Second, Rivers was elite in 2008-2010. He was completing 65% of his passes, had a YPA well over 8, and his TD-to-INT ratio . He was elite. In 2011, his play was MUCH worse. His completion % dipped, his YPA dipped, his TD-to-INT ratio tanked. I think he was injured, but nothing official was ever announced, to my knowledge. So, his 2011, which you think is "similar" to Ryan's 2012 is actually Rivers dropping off, and Ryan ascending. You talk about "fickle" analysis, but you continue to try to look at Ryan's 2012 in a vacuum, refusing to compare it to the career path the "elite" QBs you named.

For the last time, Ryan's career path is very similar to your "elite" QBs, and IMO, he will be looked at in that same vein in a year or two. You don't agree. Good for you. You think Jones' output will suffer b/c of his QB. Good for you. Continuing to harp on the same selectively chosen stats/numbers that reinforce that idea won't change the fact that Ryan is following the same career path that Peyton, Drew, Tom, etc followed.

We don't need to continue to discuss this. You have your opinion, and I have mine. Let's agree to disagree.

1-Yes, Schaub's stats took a dip the next year and them OMG his talent came back the next year! His YPA was higher than Ryan's ever will be and his TD/att was right in line with Ryan's career year. Crazy talent rejuvenation, batman!

As someone who follows the Texans closely, I can tell you have no clue what you are talking about. The Texans found a ground game in 2010, thus Schaub's TD totals took a dive. They scored 20 rushing TDs in 2010 vs. 13 in 2009. Schaub's TDs went from 29 to 24. They had a bad defense at this time, too, which is why they had to throw as much as they did. They never "decided to give him the reigns". They had their hand forced due to a completely inept defense/defensive coordinator. Kubiak has always wanted a ground game. He's been saying it all along - even back before they brought in Ahman Green.

All your yammering about health and playoffs has nothing to do with talent (the Bears won their division back-to-back with Orton/Grossman). The Bucs and Panthers have been doormats for most of Ryan's career while Ryan has been able to ride one of the leagues best ground games. And just in case I'm not clear, I never thought Schaub was a special talent. He's in the QB11-21 range just like Ryan.

2-Yes, I get that Rivers took a decline from 2010 to 2011, but his "per attempt" numbers were right in line with Ryan's career year. I never said his 2011 was as good as his 2010. Simply that you said he had "several" lackluster years after 2010 which was completely ridiculous since there were only 2 years and one of them was in the same vein as Ryan's best year. Additionally, Norv was losing the team by 2011 and AJ Smith had let the talent around Rivers (most importantly the O-line) deplete.

Here's an article you might find interesting: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/07/07/quarterback-pressure-points/

For Philip Rivers, the key to a fantasy comeback seems clear. He was more productive than Matt Ryan without pressure last season. However, the Chargers were rated as the fourth-worst pass-blocking line at -27.2 overall. With the additions of Max Starks and first-round tackle D.J. Fluker, I believe Rivers is again worth a flier as a QB2.

I get what you're saying about the trend of Matt Ryan. I just don't agree. His first year was better than his 2nd and 3rd years. His 3rd year was exactly the same as his 2nd year except with more passes. His stats in his 4th year jumped up when he saw a talent influx at WR - just as anyone's stats would do. That's not an increase in QB talent. That's the effect of an increase in WR talent. Recall my mention of situation changing faster than talent. Then last year he his completion percentage increased as his yards per completion decreased. Simply a change in play calling. This year he gains Steven Jackson and loses a tackle to free agency. It'll be interesting to see how that goes. I'll look forward to your predictions in the Matt Ryan thread.

On topic, I don't know how many times I can say it, I don't think Jones' output will suffer due to Ryan as much as it just won't be what it could be. Andre Johnson was saddled with David Carr and Matt Schaub his whole career and still had some great years. Were they as good as they could've been had he been on the Colts? No. This all started by a flippant comment about Ryan holding him back which I only meant to say that I think Julio is extremely talented and could be WR1 if he had a Favre or Manning at QB or if he gets 200 targets. I don't think Ryan will ever pull a Stafford and target him 200 times, so I expect Julio to simply put up top 10 numbers. My projection puts him pretty close to top 5.

 

[Bayhawks]

You only grasp and/or address half the point each time. Those other seasons that weren't quite as good from a yards+TD standpoint were done with significantly less passing attempts and a worse receiving corps than Ryan had, and they were done by guys you don't consider elite.
It's funny you say Rivers was elite in 2010, but he's had "several" less than stellar years since then. First of all, he's only had two seasons since 2010 just like everyone else. Second, one of those years was 582-4624-27-20. His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse.

So yeah, it was a great point and you just proved it. You (and most people here) base your version of elite on perception derived from fantasy success and aggregate numbers. Rivers 2011 season was a flop compared to 2010, but it wasn't that bad. However, when Norv completely lost the team last year everyone jumped off the bandwagon and suddenly the guy is garbage in your eyes. The guy is 31 years old! If he was elite in 2010, he's still elite. His situation has just worsened while Ryan's has gotten better. The skill hasn't changed.

1-Those seasons represented (in most cases) career years for those QBs. Ryan's 2012 season was merely another progression in his career. Since Ryan suffered from a slight sophomore slump, he has steadily increased his passing yards, YPA, TDs, etc. Those other QBs can't claim the same thing. But, you know who can? Elite QBs.

2-Rivers WAS considered to be an elite QB (or the tier just below, as I previously stated) before. He no longer is (both in fantasy, and in "real-life." His YPA had dropped almost 2 full yards, from 8.7 YPA in 2010, to 6.8 in 2012. I never said he was "garbage," just that he isn't elite anymore. That happens, football players get old, their skills erode, they get hurt, etc. Just because an individual was once considered elite doesn't mean he is there forever. That's just common sense. Also, when you said " His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse;" you were wrong. Ryan's YPA was 7.7 in 2012, Rivers' was 6.8 YPA. BTW-the "elite" QBs you mentioned: 8.0 YPA, 7.8 YPA, 7.7 YPA, and 7.6 YPA. Seems like Ryan is a lot closer to elite, at least with regards to YPA, than Rivers is close to Ryan, as you are trying to suggest.

1-It was also his 5th season and his career year to date. These were those guys' career years because that was the season they threw the most passes in most cases. Schaub's 3rd season as a starter was just as good as Ryan's 5th, so let's not get too excited about Ryan's progression. Why did Schaub's numbers come down the next years? Because they started running more, passing less, and asking less of him. Not because he got worse. Thus, here we are back at situation dictating what people consider talent.

2-Yes, I get that you are saying "was" as in past tense, I was just pointing out how silly it was that you said Rivers had "several" down years since 2010. There were only 2 seasons and one of them was pretty comparable to Ryan's 2012 which you consider elite. So apparently one down year is enough to strike a guy from elite (or just below elite) in your book. Good to know what kind of fickle analysis I'm up against here. For the record, Rivers was 30 last year, so you really think his skills eroded? It had nothing to do with the loss of OL talent, the loss of Vincent Jackson, Norv's coaching, etc? It was purely him suddenly losing talent? My point is that situations can drastically change from year to year, while talent only changes incrementally. Right now Ryan is in a top notch situation. There are probably a dozen other guys who could put up his numbers (or better) in the same situation.

When I said "this year" I was referring to the year I was just talking about. Read it again - I agree it wasn't worded the best, but I obviously know that 7.7>6.8

1-You aren't completely correct in your assumptions about why Schaub never repeated his career year. The next season, he threw 9 fewer passes. That's not statistically significant. But his YPA, completion percentage, and TD/pass ratio all dropped off, and the team regressed, only winning 6 games. Prior to 2009, he had never attempted more than 400 passes in a season (and he only had 1 season where he was on pace for more than 500). The Texans decided to give him the reins, and while he responded with decent numbers, it didn't work for the Texans. They weren't winning enough, and they weren't being successful enough (playoffs/championships, etc). Plus, In the 2nd year removed from Schaub's career year, the Texans discovered this guy, Arian Foster, who is a pretty good RB, and they started to run more. Schaub also got hurt, again, (he has been a starter in 6 seasons, and hasn't been able to play a full season in 3 of them). So to sum up, Houston gave Schaub a chance to be "the guy," and that experiment failed, Schaub has a history of missing games, and the Texans have a pretty good RB (with a pretty good back-up). Ryan has led his team to the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons, while steadily improving his play/stats/numbers in each of the last 3 years, He doesn't have a history of missing games, and while Steven Jackson is an upgrade at RB, the Falcons aren't going to become a ground-based team. Your comparison to Schaub misses the mark. You think it is relevant, and you're entitled to your opinion, but there is no real substance there.

2-First, I don't think Ryan is in the tier with Rodgers, P Manning, Brady, Brees, YET. I think he is moving in that direction. Second, Rivers was elite in 2008-2010. He was completing 65% of his passes, had a YPA well over 8, and his TD-to-INT ratio . He was elite. In 2011, his play was MUCH worse. His completion % dipped, his YPA dipped, his TD-to-INT ratio tanked. I think he was injured, but nothing official was ever announced, to my knowledge. So, his 2011, which you think is "similar" to Ryan's 2012 is actually Rivers dropping off, and Ryan ascending. You talk about "fickle" analysis, but you continue to try to look at Ryan's 2012 in a vacuum, refusing to compare it to the career path the "elite" QBs you named.

For the last time, Ryan's career path is very similar to your "elite" QBs, and IMO, he will be looked at in that same vein in a year or two. You don't agree. Good for you. You think Jones' output will suffer b/c of his QB. Good for you. Continuing to harp on the same selectively chosen stats/numbers that reinforce that idea won't change the fact that Ryan is following the same career path that Peyton, Drew, Tom, etc followed.

We don't need to continue to discuss this. You have your opinion, and I have mine. Let's agree to disagree.

1-Yes, Schaub's stats took a dip the next year and them OMG his talent came back the next year! His YPA was higher than Ryan's ever will be and his TD/att was right in line with Ryan's career year. Crazy talent rejuvenation, batman!

As someone who follows the Texans closely, I can tell you have no clue what you are talking about. The Texans found a ground game in 2010, thus Schaub's TD totals took a dive. They scored 20 rushing TDs in 2010 vs. 13 in 2009. Schaub's TDs went from 29 to 24. They had a bad defense at this time, too, which is why they had to throw as much as they did. They never "decided to give him the reigns". They had their hand forced due to a completely inept defense/defensive coordinator. Kubiak has always wanted a ground game. He's been saying it all along - even back before they brought in Ahman Green.

All your yammering about health and playoffs has nothing to do with talent (the Bears won their division back-to-back with Orton/Grossman). The Bucs and Panthers have been doormats for most of Ryan's career while Ryan has been able to ride one of the leagues best ground games. And just in case I'm not clear, I never thought Schaub was a special talent. He's in the QB11-21 range just like Ryan.

2-Yes, I get that Rivers took a decline from 2010 to 2011, but his "per attempt" numbers were right in line with Ryan's career year. I never said his 2011 was as good as his 2010. Simply that you said he had "several" lackluster years after 2010 which was completely ridiculous since there were only 2 years and one of them was in the same vein as Ryan's best year. Additionally, Norv was losing the team by 2011 and AJ Smith had let the talent around Rivers (most importantly the O-line) deplete.

Here's an article you might find interesting: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/07/07/quarterback-pressure-points/

For Philip Rivers, the key to a fantasy comeback seems clear. He was more productive than Matt Ryan without pressure last season. However, the Chargers were rated as the fourth-worst pass-blocking line at -27.2 overall. With the additions of Max Starks and first-round tackle D.J. Fluker, I believe Rivers is again worth a flier as a QB2.

I get what you're saying about the trend of Matt Ryan. I just don't agree. His first year was better than his 2nd and 3rd years. His 3rd year was exactly the same as his 2nd year except with more passes. His stats in his 4th year jumped up when he saw a talent influx at WR - just as anyone's stats would do. That's not an increase in QB talent. That's the effect of an increase in WR talent. Recall my mention of situation changing faster than talent. Then last year he his completion percentage increased as his yards per completion decreased. Simply a change in play calling. This year he gains Steven Jackson and loses a tackle to free agency. It'll be interesting to see how that goes. I'll look forward to your predictions in the Matt Ryan thread.

On topic, I don't know how many times I can say it, I don't think Jones' output will suffer due to Ryan as much as it just won't be what it could be. Andre Johnson was saddled with David Carr and Matt Schaub his whole career and still had some great years. Were they as good as they could've been had he been on the Colts? No. This all started by a flippant comment about Ryan holding him back which I only meant to say that I think Julio is extremely talented and could be WR1 if he had a Favre or Manning at QB or if he gets 200 targets. I don't think Ryan will ever pull a Stafford and target him 200 times, so I expect Julio to simply put up top 10 numbers. My projection puts him pretty close to top 5.

You've made your point, over and over again. I think you're wrong. You can keep posting it, if you want, if it makes you feel better about your theory. I think Ryan is moving towards becoming an "elite" QB, and that Jones will benefit from having him as his QB, rather than suffering as a result.

 

[donkshow]

Julio Jones player spotlight or Matt Ryan player spotlight?

 

[SWC]

i will get it back on track julio jones is a spicy fast high end commercial grade blender of a player who will dominate like he is liquifying a smoothie with a ninja four blade set up and run right past people at whcih time he will catch the ball and then go for a long td probably twelve to fourteen times this year take that to the bank brohans

 

[Dr. Octopus]

No offense, but this doesn't make sense. If you want to argue that Ryan isn't "elite," that's one thing (although I'd disagree), but to suggest that there are between 11-17 QBs better than him is laughable.

You list Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, and Brady as elite, and cite Ryan's "situation" as the only reason he "compiles" stats.

Brees' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He has Colston, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and a system that lets him throw the ball 40 times almost every game.

Rodgers' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He had/has Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley, a crap running game and a HC who relies on Rodgers.

Peyton situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He IS the offense in Denver. He essentially calls the plays on the field. Thomas and Decker aren't a bad WR combo, either.

Brady's situation is comparable/better than Ryan. Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, plus a coach who thinks you should treat a 28 point lead like you're down by 10 and keep throwing? QBs probably hate that kind of game plan.

So you have these QBs as elite. Each of them are more "veteran" than Ryan (although Rodgers became the starter in Ryan's rookie year). All their "situations" are comparable.

None of those QBs had a higher completion percentage than Ryan in 2012, only two had a higher YPA, & only two had more passing yards. Ryan had the fewest passing TDs amongst the five, but of the other 4, Manning only exceeded Ryan's 32 TD passes once in his first 5 years, it took Rodgers 4 years (as a starter) to hit that mark, and Brady and Brees didn't hit that number in their first 5 years.

The fact is that Ryan is very close to that group, if not a part of it. The only thing holding him back is TDs. If he can throw 3-5 more TDs this year (which I think he can/will, based on becoming more experienced, and his career progression thus far), while maintaining (if not improving) those other numbers, he will be solidly in the elite tier.

Since I expect Jones to replace White as the #1 option this year, I'll project:

160 targets

89 catches (56% catch rate)

1350 yards (15.2 YPR)]

13 TDs

That's hardly being "held back" by his QB.

Look, you are clearly under the influence of fantasy football stats so I won't be able to reason with you. Your logic is laughable for how you rationalize Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees' situations being better/comparable to Ryan's. Being the offense with no running threat does not actually make it a better situation for a QB. And yes, all those receiving corps are pretty good, but they don't match Ryan's trio. I think Brees has by far the worst trio since you had to throw in a running back. You didn't even try to count Tamme/Dreessen for Peyton's third.

Those guys are all making their WRs better, whereas I think Ryan is being towed along behind his. Their situations appear comparable because they are putting up silly stats because they are elite. You think you could plunk Ryan down in Denver and give him 583 attempts and he'd be off and running?

You also make the same mistake as Art by referencing Peyton's early career numbers vs. Ryan's early career. Three guys had 30+ TD in 2001. Three guys had 40+ TD in 2011. Different era. Stop looking at fantasy stats and look at the situation. I mean, a couple years ago no one would've argued that Rivers was borderline elite. Now people like Art think it's ridiculous to consider him better than Ryan. What a difference a fantasy season makes. Rivers has seen his ADP crash and now Ryan is considered elite. Seriously consider flip flopping him and Flacco. Not a single person here would be calling Ryan elite if he was stuck in Baltimore throwing the ball 530 times. Fantasy stats have totally warped people's perceptions of players. Stafford was an elite QB a year ago in this forum. I said he wasn't, people jeered at me the same as you do now.

Here are a few seasons much like Ryan's fifth season (615-4719-32-14) that were not accomplished by guys considered elite and was done with lesser receivers:

478-4009-34-11 (Rivers 3rd season as a starter)

541-4710-30-13 (Rivers 5th season as a starter)

583-4770-29-15 (Schaub 3rd season as a starter)

616-4526-25-18 (Cutler 2nd season as a starter)

520-4035-28-13 (Palmer 3rd season as a starter)

Obviously Rivers and Palmer were not able to achieve the yardage due to 100 less passes thrown, but the touchdowns per attempt are better. Fantasy stats and situation make a huge difference in public opinion. Is there no one you think is overrated in the NFL due to their situation? Try to mention it a thread related to that player and people will jump all over you. It's comical.

And for the record, I'm not saying there are 17 guys better than him. Just that he's in the same talent group as guys like Eli and Flacco, but he's in a much better situation. Feel free to provide your QB talent tiers, although I'm certain it will greatly resemble the consensus fantasy football ADP list.

Mr Ninja,

Do you watch football, I do

Have you watched Mr Rivers play, I would say he isn't an NFL QB based on last years play. He has a poor throwing motion(looks like a shotputter ) his throws bounced off the ground or where no where near his targets all year.

As a QB I would look for Arm Strength, Accuracy and Leadership and Ryan has Rivers beat on all three of these

In fairness, it would depend on which Rivers you are referring to. Rivers's game has declined greatly, but at one point it wasn't really debateable as to who the better QB was. Part of Rivers decline is due to the decline of the team around him (o-line and weapons), some of it maybe due to an injury and some of it seems to be mental.

Right now Ryan is a better all around QB, I'd agree and obviously due to age, the pair will be heading in different directions in the near future as well - but at comparable points in their careers I think most would say Rivers.

As to the overall point of Ryan's standing I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle - Ryan is more talented than Ninja may be giving him credit for - but his infalated stats may be swaying some to beleive he's better than he is. If we swicthed Flacco and Ryan, Flacco would be the more desirable fantasy play for an example.

 

[FF Ninja]

ryan will always be good not great sorry brohans dems is da bones like my main man the witch doctor used to say

/debate

 

[TheFanatic]

Im gonna #### on all of you with a meager 1080yds but massive 17tds.

That sound is my mind blowing.

That's the sound of 8-9 in the box trying to stop SJax in the redzone, and Ryan tossing a lob pass to the corner of the endzone where only Jones can catch it

My visions are vivid

See, I'm the exact opposite here. You act like the Falcons have no other guys to go to in the endzone. Last I checked, Gonzo was money at the goal line. I mean, HOF money, maybe best of all time money. Oh, and Roddy White isn't a slouch. But what about SJax himself. Great pass catcher. I can see him going in motion to completely blow the mind of the D and either getting the toss or Matt Ryan on the naked boot with SOOOO many people to cover in the endzone. Or simply running up the gut with Jackson. It's not like teams ever go ahead and run the ball from the one even with the Dline stacked to stop the run.

I'm calling 1500 yards, 8 TD's

Oh, and you should probably get medicated for those visions. Because that's just crazy talk...

 

[karmarooster]

ITT - everything that sucks about the Sharkpool. Lots of bickering, way off topic (Julio --> Ryan --> Rivers --> Big Ben, Andre Johnson to David Carr to Matt Schaub), mega-long responses that basically consist of "You think Matt Ryan is Elite?? IDIOT!"

Julio is pretty clearly a good WR, with a good QB, but who shares looks from other good options. His talent means his floor is high, but Roddy/Gonzo/Sjax mean his ceiling is not as high as say Megatron because of competition for targets.

75-90 receptions, 1100-1350 yards, and 9-14 TDs. I don't see why all the bickering is necessary. You like Dez or AJ Green more? Take them. You like Julio? Take him. None are coming back to you in the 3rd round. All are very good WRs. It's not like this is some grey area of the unknown.

 

[TheFanatic]

ITT - everything that sucks about the Sharkpool. Lots of bickering, way off topic (Julio --> Ryan --> Rivers --> Big Ben, Andre Johnson to David Carr to Matt Schaub), mega-long responses that basically consist of "You think Matt Ryan is Elite?? IDIOT!"

I thought the discussion was going pretty well despite the fact that this is a JJ thread and not Ryan thread. Lots of stats and not just opinion. The problem comes when it degenerated into guys repeating themselves over and over and over and guys not getting basic concepts needed to truly have a logical discussion. I don't mind the hijack as it is pertinent to the topic, but when the wheels fell off that hijack this thread pretty much died. Maybe this bump will get it back on track...

 

[FF Ninja]

Rivers WAS considered to be an elite QB (or the tier just below, as I previously stated) before. He no longer is (both in fantasy, and in "real-life." His YPA had dropped almost 2 full yards, from 8.7 YPA in 2010, to 6.8 in 2012. I never said he was "garbage," just that he isn't elite anymore. That happens, football players get old, their skills erode, they get hurt, etc. Just because an individual was once considered elite doesn't mean he is there forever. That's just common sense. Also, when you said " His YPA was a little better than Ryan this year while his TD/att was a little worse;" you were wrong. Ryan's YPA was 7.7 in 2012, Rivers' was 6.8 YPA. BTW-the "elite" QBs you mentioned: 8.0 YPA, 7.8 YPA, 7.7 YPA, and 7.6 YPA. Seems like Ryan is a lot closer to elite, at least with regards to YPA, than Rivers is close to Ryan, as you are trying to suggest.

Yes, I get that you are saying "was" as in past tense, I was just pointing out how silly it was that you said Rivers had "several" down years since 2010. There were only 2 seasons and one of them was pretty comparable to Ryan's 2012 which you consider elite. So apparently one down year is enough to strike a guy from elite (or just below elite) in your book. Good to know what kind of fickle analysis I'm up against here. For the record, Rivers was 30 last year, so you really think his skills eroded? It had nothing to do with the loss of OL talent, the loss of Vincent Jackson, Norv's coaching, etc? It was purely him suddenly losing talent? My point is that situations can drastically change from year to year, while talent only changes incrementally. Right now Ryan is in a top notch situation. There are probably a dozen other guys who could put up his numbers (or better) in the same situation.

Looks like Rivers' skills magically un-eroded despite the still crappy line and talent void at WR. It looks like Norv was the problem.

In other news, Julio is beasting while Roddy is injured. 23 targets to 5. Tony G maybe hitting the wall, too. If Julio gets ~180 targets, he has to finish top 3.

 

[SameSongNDance]

He had a career day at home after being limited by a knee injury all week. Absolutely crazy, especially the at home part.

 

[Eminence]

Loaded up on him and Demaryius Thomas in a few leagues while ignoring the RB position early. Very happy with my results so far.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Loaded up on him and Demaryius Thomas in a few leagues while ignoring the RB position early. Very happy with my results so far.

great news.