Jason Wood
Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series
One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.
Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.
Thread Topic: Marion Barber, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Player Page Link: Marion Barber Player Page
Each article will include:
Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules
In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:
Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):
For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.
One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.
Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.
Thread Topic: Marion Barber, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Player Page Link: Marion Barber Player Page
Each article will include:
Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules
In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:
Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):
For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.
As far as touches go, Julius Jones and his 165 rushes and 23 receptions are gone. Felix Jones won't take away near as much of the workload Julius did last season. Barber is Top 5 guaranteed in PPR leagues. However, the truly great thing about Barber will be his consistent production. He'll put up about 100 yards and a score each week, along with a handful of catches. It will be tough to have this guy on your team and not win your league next season.290 carries 1363 yards48 recepts 336 yards14 TD's
MBIII > Gore & Lynch this year
I like him for a few more receptions as he was targeted 10+% of the time by Romo in 2007. If he is on the field a little more, and Dallas continues to throw 57-58% of the time (as we should expect that they will), I don't think it is unreasonable to figure him to get the same number of targets as last season, if not more (although I am looking for him to maintain the numbers from last year in this regard).260-1118-11 on the ground42-295-1 through the air
, but I do disagree on a few points. For one, using the data dominator it shows MBIII's ypc at 4.32 from games 7-17. Also, if you exclude the week 17 performance of 6 carries for -6 yards (Not that doing so is especially valid to do this, but it's a clear outlier that occured when they had aldready locked up their playoff spot and home field advantage) then the average over that period goes up to 4.56. Basically, I disagree with you that his ypc will drop quite so much. I'd expect it to hover around 4.5. In the post season he averaged 4.8 ypc on 27 carries against some very solid defenses - I doubt that his ypc will drop as much as you've projected.Also, I'd expect a few more carries than you've projected. The Dallas D, already very good last season, should be even better this year. Adam Jones, Zach Thomas, a full season from Tank Johnson, and Mike Jenkins... I think that their team total for carries could creep up a bit and that Felix Jones will cut into Barber's load less than you've suggested. Also, I think that Dallas will be leading often and that MBIII will be running the clock down - the kind of situation where he's pounding tired defenses, racking up some extra carries, and keeping his ypc pretty high. As for TD's, I think that they go up with more playing time. I'd put his floor at the 13 total TD's that Switz predicted, but I think Barber is the kind of player in the type of situation with a ceiling as high as 20+ total TD's. 280 carries, 1250 yards (about 4.45 ypc - a modest drop)35 receptions, 250 yards (slight drop as Felix Jones should have a good ammount of catches out of the backfield)16 total TD'sI think that Barber puts up the best numbers of his career this season, justifying or outplaying his high ADP for a top 7-3 finish amongst RB's.
some of that might be too optimistic, but, with that Dallas O-line, who knows. Barber will have holes the size of cement trucks to run through, so anything is possible..280/1344/11 4.8 per carry 50/320/4 6.4er rec.easily top 10 RB numbers. The only thing you do have to worry about is injuries.With his punishing running style, the guy doesn't shy away from full contact...
, but I do disagree on a few points. For one, using the data dominator it shows MBIII's ypc at 4.32 from games 7-17.
