Post here when coaches do something you disagree with (2 Viewers)

[Deamon]

Staley. I don't care if they won.

Because he went for it on 4th down at the end? That’s absolutely the right call. One yard wins you the game.

What? It was 2 yards, and they were in their own end.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Staley. I don't care if they won.

Because he went for it on 4th down at the end? That’s absolutely the right call. One yard wins you the game.

He was bailed out by the Browns missing the FG, but that was a horrendous decision. Kick it deep and make Jacoby freaking Brissett drive 50 yards in under a minute to beat you.

 

[Deamon]

Staley. I don't care if they won.

Because he went for it on 4th down at the end? That’s absolutely the right call. One yard wins you the game.

He was bailed out by the Browns missing the FG, but that was a horrendous decision. Kick it deep and make Jacoby freaking Brissett drive 50 yards in under a minute to beat you.

Yep. Or miss the conversion and make them go like 10 yards to be in FG range and beat you.
I get the "need 2 yards and the game is over", but there's a time and place for that, and that's usually deep in the other team's territory. There's zero way to spin this that it was a good decision.

 

[irish eyes]

Staley. I don't care if they won.

Because he went for it on 4th down at the end? That’s absolutely the right call. One yard wins you the game.

He was bailed out by the Browns missing the FG, but that was a horrendous decision. Kick it deep and make Jacoby freaking Brissett drive 50 yards in under a minute to beat you.

Yep. Or miss the conversion and make them go like 10 yards to be in FG range and beat you.
I get the "need 2 yards and the game is over", but there's a time and place for that, and that's usually deep in the other team's territory. There's zero way to spin this that it was a good decision.

How long are they going to let this idiot coach. He is comically bad. They are even making fun of him on Sunday night pre game show

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Staley. I don't care if they won.

Because he went for it on 4th down at the end? That’s absolutely the right call. One yard wins you the game.

He was bailed out by the Browns missing the FG, but that was a horrendous decision. Kick it deep and make Jacoby freaking Brissett drive 50 yards in under a minute to beat you.

Yep. Or miss the conversion and make them go like 10 yards to be in FG range and beat you.
I get the "need 2 yards and the game is over", but there's a time and place for that, and that's usually deep in the other team's territory. There's zero way to spin this that it was a good decision.

OK first of all, the official play-by-play says it was 4th and 1 from the LAC 46.

Second, the 4th Down Bot rated going for it as +11.7% WPA and recommended, "YOU BETTER DO THIS". You're free to disagree with that recommendation, but I'm not sure how you can argue there's zero way to spin that it was a good decision. I think saying that it increases your chances of winning by 12% is certainly one way to spin it.

OK, but analytics only describe a generic scenario. What about this one specifically? The Chargers had rolled up 465 of total offense on the day, 228 of which came on the ground. The Browns, to that point, had 433. There had been 58 points scored. In an offensive shootout, you put your faith in your own offense to get you the yard, not your sieve-like defense to stop the other guys. I do agree that if the situation had been reversed, and the choice was between asking Chubb to get a yard or giving the ball back to Herbert, it would have been even more of a slam dunk. But I think it still made sense in this situation.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Yeah @ignatiusjreilly it wasn’t a criminal decision either way. I personally think punting was the better option but you make a good case.

Speaking of criminal decisions, how about Tomlin kicking a FG towards the end of the first half with the team trailing 24-3. They had 3rd and 8th deep in Bills territory. On 3rd down, they throw a 4 yard pass. I’m thinking that’s ok because they’re just making the 4th down play a little easier. But no he does the unthinkable and actually kicks the FG (which of course they missed anyways because of the terrible windy conditions). If you’ve made the decision to kick the FG on 4th down, how is the 3rd down play call not going past the marker?

 

[Ghost Rider]

I would agree if they were up by more than 3, but since a stoppage meant the Browns would only need 10 yards or so to have a good FG attempt, it was too risky. Like I said, he was bailed out by their D and then the Browns K missing, but the decision itself was terrible (and I don't care about analytics).

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I would agree if they were up by more than 3, but since a stoppage meant the Browns would only need 10 yards or so to have a good FG attempt, it was too risky. Like I said, he was bailed out by their D and then the Browns K missing, but the decision itself was terrible (and I don't care about analytics).

Agreed. The bots just don’t seem to take special situations like this into account.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I would agree if they were up by more than 3, but since a stoppage meant the Browns would only need 10 yards or so to have a good FG attempt, it was too risky. Like I said, he was bailed out by their D and then the Browns K missing, but the decision itself was terrible (and I don't care about analytics).

Agreed. The bots just don’t seem to take special situations like this into account.

You think bots don't take field position into account?

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I would agree if they were up by more than 3, but since a stoppage meant the Browns would only need 10 yards or so to have a good FG attempt, it was too risky. Like I said, he was bailed out by their D and then the Browns K missing, but the decision itself was terrible (and I don't care about analytics).

Agreed. The bots just don’t seem to take special situations like this into account.

You think bots don't take field position into account?

Was the situation Ghost Rider described strictly about field position? No.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Yeah @ignatiusjreilly it wasn’t a criminal decision either way. I personally think punting was the better option but you make a good case.

Agreed. If they hadn't gone for it I wouldn't be in here killing them.

Speaking of criminal decisions, how about Tomlin kicking a FG towards the end of the first half with the team trailing 24-3. They had 3rd and 8th deep in Bills territory. On 3rd down, they throw a 4 yard pass. I’m thinking that’s ok because they’re just making the 4th down play a little easier. But no he does the unthinkable and actually kicks the FG (which of course they missed anyways because of the terrible windy conditions). If you’ve made the decision to kick the FG on 4th down, how is the 3rd down play call not going past the marker?

First of all, it feels like teams throwing short of the sticks on 3rd down has become way more common in the past couple years. Steelers did it a lot with Ben, but I mostly chalked that up to his late-career limitations. But now it seems like I see it happen multiple times every week. Would be curious to see some league-wide numbers on that.

Also agree that the only way it does make sense is if you're setting yourself up to go on 4th.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Former player Mark Schlereth said it well this week: "Analytics is something stupid invented by math nerds who never played the game."

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I would agree if they were up by more than 3, but since a stoppage meant the Browns would only need 10 yards or so to have a good FG attempt, it was too risky. Like I said, he was bailed out by their D and then the Browns K missing, but the decision itself was terrible (and I don't care about analytics).

Agreed. The bots just don’t seem to take special situations like this into account.

You think bots don't take field position into account?

Was the situation Ghost Rider described strictly about field position? No.

You're right. He also mentioned the scoring margin. Pretty sure they take that into account, too.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Not the biggest thing in the world, especially when you have the GOAT kicker, but I never understand why teams treat "FG range" as a binary thing.

Ravens down 17-16, rush for the 1st down at the Cinci 25 with 46 seconds left and all their timeouts. Why not continue to try to move the ball closer to make it an easier kick for Tucker? Instead they just let the clock run down, call TO with one second left, and put it on Tucker to make a 43 yarder, which of course he does. But still. Lamar could have easily gained them an additional 5-10 yards, and the risk of fumbling has got to be less than the increased odds of hitting the FG when you're that much closer.

 

[Tau837]

I would agree if they were up by more than 3, but since a stoppage meant the Browns would only need 10 yards or so to have a good FG attempt, it was too risky. Like I said, he was bailed out by their D and then the Browns K missing, but the decision itself was terrible (and I don't care about analytics).

Agreed. The bots just don’t seem to take special situations like this into account.

You think bots don't take field position into account?

Bots don't take into account that Jacoby Brissett is the QB, not Rodgers or Brady or Peyton. Citing the average yards per play doesn't recognize that the Browns averaged 6.9 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per pass attempt, and rushing would be off the table.

It was a bad decision. Had the Browns made the FG, Staley would be under a lot more criticism than he is now, and deservedly so.

 

[humpback]

Not the biggest thing in the world, especially when you have the GOAT kicker, but I never understand why teams treat "FG range" as a binary thing.

Ravens down 17-16, rush for the 1st down at the Cinci 25 with 46 seconds left and all their timeouts. Why not continue to try to move the ball closer to make it an easier kick for Tucker? Instead they just let the clock run down, call TO with one second left, and put it on Tucker to make a 43 yarder, which of course he does. But still. Lamar could have easily gained them an additional 5-10 yards, and the risk of fumbling has got to be less than the increased odds of hitting the FG when you're that much closer.

I agree with the general premise, I think teams often get too conservative in these situations, but not in this case. Tucker is as automatic as it comes, there is very little difference in odds between a 43 yd. and say a 38 yd FG for him, especially in crunch time. The chances of a fumble (or any number of other things that could go wrong, like a penalty, slip, injury, etc.) I would put as greater than the increase in the FG %.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I would agree if they were up by more than 3, but since a stoppage meant the Browns would only need 10 yards or so to have a good FG attempt, it was too risky. Like I said, he was bailed out by their D and then the Browns K missing, but the decision itself was terrible (and I don't care about analytics).

Agreed. The bots just don’t seem to take special situations like this into account.

You think bots don't take field position into account?

Bots don't take into account that Jacoby Brissett is the QB, not Rodgers or Brady or Peyton. Citing the average yards per play doesn't recognize that the Browns averaged 6.9 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per pass attempt, and rushing would be off the table.

It was a bad decision. Had the Browns made the FG, Staley would be under a lot more criticism than he is now, and deservedly so.

OK but the bots also don't take into consideration that LA had Herbert and an offense that was averaging 6.7 YPP. Also, the numbers show that going for it increased WP% by nearly 12 percent on average. You can cite factors that might lower that number, but you're going to need a whole bunch of factors, all working in the same direction, in order to make it go from 12% to a negative number.

You guys are relying on two of the biggest fallacies people make when it comes to decisions like these:

1. Starting with an opinion and then cherry-picking data to support it
2. Focusing solely on the downside risk

This last point is the most important. Throw out all the numbers other than this one: Do you think the Chargers had a better than even chance of converting the 4th down? Considering that they have a high-powered offense, and the distance was shorter than a 2-point conversion, it would be hard to argue they didn't. And if so, that argues pretty strongly in favor of going for it, because a conversion means the game is over. (It's not a slam dunk, since you have to compare the odds of converting with the odds of the defense stopping Cleveland after a punt, and I freely concede that the fact they were facing Brissett makes this a closer call than if they were facing an elite QB). Sometimes "analytics" requires so-called nerd math, but other times it's just confirming basic logic: Pick up a yard and win the game.

 

[Tau837]

Throw out all the numbers other than this one: Do you think the Chargers had a better than even chance of converting the 4th down?

• Prior to the play in question, the Chargers had run 19 plays with 2 yards to go this season. They got 2 or more yards on 8 of them (42%). That is all downs.
• Prior to the play in question, they had attempted to convert 4th and 2 one time previously this season and failed (0%). That was in the first quarter of the same game on Sunday.
• Prior to the play in question, the Chargers had attempted to convert 4 4th down plays with 2 or more yards to go this season, excluding a kneeldown. They converted 1 of them (25%). The distances to go were 2, 5, 7, and 15. They converted the 4th and 7.

 

[Joe Summer]

QB sneak from your own goal line when you are up by 4 with less than a minute to play.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

QB sneak from your own goal line when you are up by 4 with less than a minute to play.

He fumbled the snap. Hard to put that on the play call.

FYI that was the play the Pats ran after the Butler INT

 

[Ghost Rider]

QB sneak from your own goal line when you are up by 4 with less than a minute to play.

Not kicking the FG on 4th and goal from the 7 when it was 27-17 was far more egregious. Imagine if it was 30-23 there at the end instead of 27-23. They likely take the intentional safety to make it 30-25 by having the center hike the ball out of the end zone, but at 27-23, making it 27-25 with an intentional safety is too risky, as the Vikings just need a FG to then beat you (and still would have had 40 seconds).

 

[TampaMike19]

QB sneak from your own goal line when you are up by 4 with less than a minute to play.

That was ****ing brutal- especially fumbling it for 6 lol. No excuses- horrible execution. I think the play call was fine as Allen is huge and could get a yard or so- maybe kneel the next play- try to draw offsides.

Was there any hard count? I'm guessing the Bills ran out of time outs to try to draw them offsides- the Vikings looked really jacked up for that play- even a false start was worth it

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

By the way, I think you're all ignoring the most obvious explanation, which is that both McDermott and Allen are huge fans of the '80s Tom Cruise movie "All the Right Moves", and wanted to pay tribute by re-enacting the football scene from that movie.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

QB sneak from your own goal line when you are up by 4 with less than a minute to play.

Not kicking the FG on 4th and goal from the 7 when it was 27-17 was far more egregious. Imagine if it was 30-23 there at the end instead of 27-23. They likely take the intentional safety to make it 30-25 by having the center hike the ball out of the end zone, but at 27-23, making it 27-25 with an intentional safety is too risky, as the Vikings just need a FG to then beat you (and still would have had 40 seconds).

This is exactly why the Bills did not take a safety and punt/kick off and create a short field for the Vikes to work and down and kick a FG
28-27 Vikings coulda been the final score or at least we think that's what McDermott and the coaches are processing at that point

 

[Ministry of Pain]

By the way, I think you're all ignoring the most obvious explanation, which is that both McDermott and Allen are huge fans of the '80s Tom Cruise movie "All the Right Moves", and wanted to pay tribute by re-enacting the football scene from that movie.

I-Strong Right 42

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I think the Lions’ decision to kick the game-tying FG on 4th and 1 was defensible, but Campbell has to know his plans ahead of time when he calls the third-down play. If they weren’t going to go on fourth, they should have called a run on third and dared Buffalo to use one of their TOs. Instead they left Buffalo way too much time

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I think the Lions’ decision to kick the game-tying FG on 4th and 1 was defensible, but Campbell has to know his plans ahead of time when he calls the third-down play. If they weren’t going to go on fourth, they should have called a run on third and dared Buffalo to use one of their TOs. Instead they left Buffalo way too much time

In fairness to Detroit, they had their guy open on that play for a huge gain. Goff just missed him.

Then again, they completely mismanaged the clock at the end of both halves, so maybe I shouldn't quibble too much here.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

College edition: Everyone always remembers when the coaches are aggressive and it backfires, but today’s OSU-Michigan game was a case study in the reverse. Harbaugh was consistently aggressive and it generally paid off, and Day always seemed to be kicking on 4th down, even in situations where it seemed clear they should be going for it (like when they kicked the FG on 4th and 4 from the 9 down 11 in the fourth quarter).

 

[Leroy Hoard]

College edition: Everyone always remembers when the coaches are aggressive and it backfires, but today’s OSU-Michigan game was a case study in the reverse. Harbaugh was consistently aggressive and it generally paid off, and Day always seemed to be kicking on 4th down, even in situations where it seemed clear they should be going for it (like when they kicked the FG on 4th and 4 from the 9 down 11 in the fourth quarter).

Football fans love turtles.

 

[eighsse2]

College edition: Everyone always remembers when the coaches are aggressive and it backfires, but today’s OSU-Michigan game was a case study in the reverse. Harbaugh was consistently aggressive and it generally paid off, and Day always seemed to be kicking on 4th down, even in situations where it seemed clear they should be going for it (like when they kicked the FG on 4th and 4 from the 9 down 11 in the fourth quarter).

I agreed with those conservative calls by Day. If you don't repeatedly allow long streak touchdowns when they have the ball and throw picks when you have the ball, things turn out a lot different.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

College edition: Everyone always remembers when the coaches are aggressive and it backfires, but today’s OSU-Michigan game was a case study in the reverse. Harbaugh was consistently aggressive and it generally paid off, and Day always seemed to be kicking on 4th down, even in situations where it seemed clear they should be going for it (like when they kicked the FG on 4th and 4 from the 9 down 11 in the fourth quarter).

I agreed with those conservative calls by Day. If you don't repeatedly allow long streak touchdowns when they have the ball and throw picks when you have the ball, things turn out a lot different.

Certainly true that they got completely outplayed in the second half, but as a UM fan I was relieved at every single one of those calls, especially the FG

 

[[scooter]]

Jeff Saturday saving his timeouts for the next game.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I wasn’t a fan of Saturday kicking the FG on 4th & 2, down 17-10.

They had some mojo going there. They shoulda kept up the momentum & tried for 7, metrics be damned.

 

[Mister CIA]

hoo boy, that was bad.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I wasn’t a fan of Saturday kicking the FG on 4th & 2, down 17-10.

They had some mojo going there. They shoulda kept up the momentum & tried for 7, metrics be damned.

The metrics strongly favored going for it

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I wasn’t a fan of Saturday kicking the FG on 4th & 2, down 17-10.

They had some mojo going there. They shoulda kept up the momentum & tried for 7, metrics be damned.

The metrics strongly favored going for it

Oh, ok I feel smart then. lol

It was actually a 4th & 2 though, not 4th & 1.

They even talked about it on the broadcast - that 4th & 1 you go for it, 4th & 2 you kick the FG.

I still say they should have gone for it on
4th and 2.

 

[Gally]

I still say they should have gone for it on
4th and 2.

As a guy playing against Taylor with a 5 pt lead I thought it was totally the right call to kick the FG and not give Taylor a chance to score a TD

 

[Anarchy99]

Speaking of end of game clock management and keeping timeouts, Tampa didn't wow me this week. Game tied with 0:32 on the clock at their own 25-yard line. And Brady throws a 1-yard dump off to the RB IN BOUNDS? Why bother throwing that ball? Why bother catching it?

On top of that, they let 17 seconds burn off the clock without calling a timeout (they had all 3 remaining). The next pass play went for 26 yards, but by then they only had 8 seconds left. They could have had 25+ seconds left needing 10 yards for a legit FG attempt (and would still have had a timeout left). I expect better from Brady.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Jeff Saturday saving his timeouts for the next game.

I asked a similar question in the Jeff Saturday thread

 

[zed2283]

These idiot coaches who think they need to save all of their timeouts for the last 15 seconds. Drives me nuts every week.

 

[Dizzy]

Jeff Saturday saving his timeouts for the next game.

Yes, apparently "Matty Ice" was fully on board with this plan as well. At least Saturday is new and completely unqualified as a HC.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Full disclosure: I'm the guy who's always pounding the table on "Don't give the other QB the ball back with a chance to win the game", but last night even I was on board with forcing a QB who joined the team two days ago to drive the length of the field with no timeouts. And it took two dumb penalties and an amazing catch by Skowronek for the Raiders to blow that game. The Football Gods just did not want the Raiders to win.

Nonetheless, I feel compelled to point out that the 4th Down Bot argued pretty strongly that the Raiders should have gone for it on fourth-and-one to ice the game. And that's not even taking into account that they have the league's best RB.

 

[dickey moe]

Full disclosure: I'm the guy who's always pounding the table on "Don't give the other QB the ball back with a chance to win the game", but last night even I was on board with forcing a QB who joined the team two days ago to drive the length of the field with no timeouts. And it took two dumb penalties and an amazing catch by Skowronek for the Raiders to blow that game. The Football Gods just did not want the Raiders to win.

Nonetheless, I feel compelled to point out that the 4th Down Bot argued pretty strongly that the Raiders should have gone for it on fourth-and-one to ice the game. And that's not even taking into account that they have the league's best RB.

I was watching the game with a coworker who's a Raider fan and be both agreed that we didn't like the call to punt from mid-field at 4th and 1.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Full disclosure: I'm the guy who's always pounding the table on "Don't give the other QB the ball back with a chance to win the game", but last night even I was on board with forcing a QB who joined the team two days ago to drive the length of the field with no timeouts. And it took two dumb penalties and an amazing catch by Skowronek for the Raiders to blow that game. The Football Gods just did not want the Raiders to win.

Nonetheless, I feel compelled to point out that the 4th Down Bot argued pretty strongly that the Raiders should have gone for it on fourth-and-one to ice the game. And that's not even taking into account that they have the league's best RB.

I was watching the game with a coworker who's a Raider fan and be both agreed that we didn't like the call to punt from mid-field at 4th and 1.

It was their own 34, but point taken.

According to ESPN, they had an 84% EWP after the 3rd down play, and 95% after that punt. They should have won regardless of what they did on that play; it took a combination of stupidity and bad luck to lose. But by the numbers, they should have gone for it.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Full disclosure: I'm the guy who's always pounding the table on "Don't give the other QB the ball back with a chance to win the game", but last night even I was on board with forcing a QB who joined the team two days ago to drive the length of the field with no timeouts. And it took two dumb penalties and an amazing catch by Skowronek for the Raiders to blow that game. The Football Gods just did not want the Raiders to win.

Nonetheless, I feel compelled to point out that the 4th Down Bot argued pretty strongly that the Raiders should have gone for it on fourth-and-one to ice the game. And that's not even taking into account that they have the league's best RB.

TBH, this felt like one of those times to ignore the bot and punt the ball away, for the exact reasons that you noted. The bot doesn't know that the other team's QB can't possibly know the playbook and needs "Hello My Name Is . . ." tags to keep his teammates straight. I gave the Rams basically no chance of going 95 yards in under two minutes under the circumstances. Granted, we didn't know at the time that the punter would pin them that deep, but even a touchback would have been game-over nearly always.

Then again, if you go for it and fail, that same logic argues that you shouldn't be too terrified of Mr. Joined-The-Team-Two-Days-Ago taking over at the 40 either.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Full disclosure: I'm the guy who's always pounding the table on "Don't give the other QB the ball back with a chance to win the game", but last night even I was on board with forcing a QB who joined the team two days ago to drive the length of the field with no timeouts. And it took two dumb penalties and an amazing catch by Skowronek for the Raiders to blow that game. The Football Gods just did not want the Raiders to win.

Nonetheless, I feel compelled to point out that the 4th Down Bot argued pretty strongly that the Raiders should have gone for it on fourth-and-one to ice the game. And that's not even taking into account that they have the league's best RB.

TBH, this felt like one of those times to ignore the bot and punt the ball away, for the exact reasons that you noted. The bot doesn't know that the other team's QB can't possibly know the playbook and needs "Hello My Name Is . . ." tags to keep his teammates straight. I gave the Rams basically no chance of going 95 yards in under two minutes under the circumstances. Granted, we didn't know at the time that the punter would pin them that deep, but even a touchback would have been game-over nearly always.

Then again, if you go for it and fail, that same logic argues that you shouldn't be too terrified of Mr. Joined-The-Team-Two-Days-Ago taking over at the 40 either.

The whole point of looking at the numbers is that it gives you the base-case scenario. Then you have to look at that and bring in factors unique to your situation that strengthen or weaken the base case. Last night, the fact that they had Jacobs strengthened the argument to go for it. The fact that the Rams had Mayfield weakened it, IMO enough to overrule the math. But like you said, it shouldn't have mattered either way; what ultimately transpired was a total edge case.

What always annoys me about the "You can't just go by the numbers" crowd is that, too often, they start with the assumption that the analytically optimal decision is intuitively wrong, and then only focus on factors that mitigate it, while ignoring those that support it. Consider the case where a heavy underdog with a bad offense scores on the final play of regulation and has to decide whether to kick the XP and go to overtime or attempt a 2PC and go for the win. People will say, "They have a bad offense so they shouldn't put it on that offense converting a two-pointer." Maybe that's true, especially if you're talking about the 2022 Broncos, with a bad offense and great defense. But one could just as easily argue that the bad offense should put their chips on converting one two-yard play rather than on putting together yet another scoring drive in OT. It also matters whether "the numbers" say it's a 51/49 kind of decision or a 65/35 one. If the numbers argue strongly for one decision, it should take a hell of a lot of mitigating factors to overrule them.

 

[Chaka]

84% EWP? What an oddly specific number. Particularly with the virtually limitless number of variables that go into any NFL play (let alone the subsequent sequence of events).

Analytics are fun. One day when Bezos-Bot 2000 is all grown up they may be truly predictive. But ATM it's still pseudo science.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Jets faced that age-old dilemma of what to do when you're driving late down two scores. They were losing 20-9 to Buffalo and reached 4th and 1 at the Buffalo 9 with 1:21 left. They brought in Zuerlein to kick the 26-yarder.

Not sure what the math would say there, but basic logic says you absolutely have to go for it. First of all, 4th and 1 from the 9 means you have pretty high odds of not only scoring a TD, but doing it relatively quickly. The other factor is that they were down 11 rather than 10. That meant that even if they got the ball back and scored a TD, they would need a 2PC just to send the game to OT (where their odds would probably be below 50%, considering that the Bills were at home with Josh Allen while the Jets had an injured Mike White).

On the other hand, if they score a TD there, they can go for two right away. If they make it, then they only need a FG to tie (or another TD to win it). If they miss it, they at least know that they need another TD and can play out the rest of the game accordingly.

 

[Grahamburn]

Todd Bowles choosing to kick a 55 yard FG with a veteran kicker that has a career long of 51.

 

[Runkle]

After a long punt, it's now 3rd and 10 from your own 4, you're trailing in the 2nd half. QB can't get the play call in before the play clock expires... call the timeout to prevent the penalty of 2 yards? I think saving the timeout might be worth more than that.