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Post here when coaches do something you disagree with (3 Viewers)

Weird sequence by Arizona at the end of the first half. They get the ball back with a minute left and two timeouts, but couldn't seem to decide whether they wanted to try to put a drive together or run out the clock. This was punctuated by a sequence where Murray was sacked and then scrambled for four yards, after which Gannon let the clock run down ... to two seconds. He called timeout and then Murray threw a quick out to Wilson. Cards had the ball on their own 35, so there was almost no chance of him taking it to the house. It was basically the equivalent of the dreaded "pre-halftime draw", except it was actually worse than that, since a sideline out is the kind of play that can lead to a pick-six.

Why call the timeout if that's the play you're going to call?
 
Mike MacDonald playing for the 50+ yard field goal with 4 minutes in the fourth was just dumb. Didn't even try to get the first down or make the field goal easier. It tells the offense that he doesn't trust them to get the job done. Particularly as Darnold had a great night to that point. Heck he has had a great season so far. And Darnold went on to save the victory.

They got lucky to win.
 
It's also worth pointing out that Gannon faced a textbook case of when a team should absolutely go for two: After scoring in the fourth quarter to make it an 8-point game. Instead, he kicked the XP, and then another one after the second TD to tie the game.

As it happened, the kicker missing the landing zone and Arizona giving up a last-second FG meant that his decision was ultimately irrelevant to the outcome, but it was still the wrong decision
 
Chiming in to give a plus one to everyone who thinks starting Dart before the slate of upcoming games is coaching malpractice.

Bring in Jamis if you need to make a change. Give the rookie a chance.
 
I know you guys are going to poo poo me about the process and analytics and crap. But that's why you kick the FG, Tomlin. Yes, it's still a 2 possession game, but the Vikings would be forced to get two TDs instead of having the ball with a minute left only needing a FG to tie.
 
Matt LeFleur's designed "coverage" of Pickens last night and the complete lack of urgency to score the game winning TD in overtime almost costing them a chance to tie with 1 second left. Just awful drive/clock management there.
 
Matt LeFleur's designed "coverage" of Pickens last night and the complete lack of urgency to score the game winning TD in overtime almost costing them a chance to tie with 1 second left. Just awful drive/clock management there.
Funniest part about that last drive was that Eberflus was standing on the opposing sideline. Do you think he did some kind of Vulcan mind meld on LaFleur?
 
With approximately 30 seconds left before halftime, Packers were leading 13-9. Lafluer sends Jordon Love out to force the ball down the field with long passes. If he was behind I get it, but he was ahead. Dallas D knows what was coming due to the time and distance. I suggested, prior to the turn over, that the play was to run and go in up.

Result: Dallas strip sack followed by a perfect strike to Pickens. Dallas goes in to the half up 16-13.
 
I don’t think any other football coach, regardless if is pee wee football, punts the ball in that situation. I just can’t believe Tomlin didn’t go for it on 4th and inches. Has to be one of the dumbest decisions I’ve ever seen, he just was lucky it didn’t backfire.
Tomlin is the new Tony Dungy, although to be fair, Dungy likely would have punted on 3rd down.
 
I know you guys are going to poo poo me about the process and analytics and crap. But that's why you kick the FG, Tomlin. Yes, it's still a 2 possession game, but the Vikings would be forced to get two TDs instead of having the ball with a minute left only needing a FG to tie.
Agree. With that little time left, the FG was the right play
 
I know you guys are going to poo poo me about the process and analytics and crap. But that's why you kick the FG, Tomlin. Yes, it's still a 2 possession game, but the Vikings would be forced to get two TDs instead of having the ball with a minute left only needing a FG to tie.
Agree. With that little time left, the FG was the right play
If you score a TD, the game is literally over right there. If you don't, they have to go 96 yards to score and then score again to tie or beat you. There is some merit to making 10 points not be able to tie you, though.
 
I know you guys are going to poo poo me about the process and analytics and crap. But that's why you kick the FG, Tomlin. Yes, it's still a 2 possession game, but the Vikings would be forced to get two TDs instead of having the ball with a minute left only needing a FG to tie.
Agree. With that little time left, the FG was the right play
If you score a TD, the game is literally over right there. If you don't, they have to go 96 yards to score and then score again to tie or beat you. There is some merit to making 10 points not be able to tie you, though.
With that little time left, two TDs made more sense to me, but WTF do I know?
 
I know you guys are going to poo poo me about the process and analytics and crap. But that's why you kick the FG, Tomlin. Yes, it's still a 2 possession game, but the Vikings would be forced to get two TDs instead of having the ball with a minute left only needing a FG to tie.
Agree. With that little time left, the FG was the right play
If you score a TD, the game is literally over right there. If you don't, they have to go 96 yards to score and then score again to tie or beat you. There is some merit to making 10 points not be able to tie you, though.
With that little time left, two TDs made more sense to me, but WTF do I know?
I wasn't watching it live, so I don't have a good feel for what the decision was like in the moment. I agree that converting and putting the game away seems like a compelling option. Haven't seen the video of the play, but from what I understand it was just a straightforward run? Seems ill-advised from the 3
 
I know you guys are going to poo poo me about the process and analytics and crap. But that's why you kick the FG, Tomlin. Yes, it's still a 2 possession game, but the Vikings would be forced to get two TDs instead of having the ball with a minute left only needing a FG to tie.
Agree. With that little time left, the FG was the right play
If you score a TD, the game is literally over right there. If you don't, they have to go 96 yards to score and then score again to tie or beat you. There is some merit to making 10 points not be able to tie you, though.
With that little time left, two TDs made more sense to me, but WTF do I know?
I wasn't watching it live, so I don't have a good feel for what the decision was like in the moment. I agree that converting and putting the game away seems like a compelling option. Haven't seen the video of the play, but from what I understand it was just a straightforward run? Seems ill-advised from the 3
I think the decision to go for it was fine, but the playcall was terrible.

Kind of like we saw with Brandon Staley’s entire tenure with the Chargers.
 
Not sure what McVay was thinking with that 4th down play call He choked plain and simple

Going for it was the correct call, the play he called was abysmal, would like to hear his thought process on it

Stafford carving up the SF D. Puka, Adams, the rest of the receiving group playing well and you call a run there

Mind boggling! These coaches really do get in their own way and make things more difficult or think they are being smart
sometimes with what they do, when just keep doing what's working
 
Mind boggling! These coaches really do get in their own way and make things more difficult or think they are being smart
sometimes with what they do, when just keep doing what's working

That's what the modern coach does, outsmart themselves.
 
i knew this thread would be up top this AM.

I kinda get not kicking it there if you feel like you can’t keep them from getting into FG range, but Mac Jones was junk at that point.

The other thing is, you have Stafford/Puka/Davante, amongst others. I’m betting McVay wishes he had put the ball in staffs hands on that 4th.
 
Also, if Staff connects on a TD there I think it puts him at 400 passing which would’ve given me a nice bonus. Thanks mcvay ya turd
 
I think you kick the FG there because of Mac Jones barely making it off the field after their last drive. He was hammered by the D-line two plays in a row and may not be able to move much after that.
Yea, that was my first thought. Helluva gutty performance by Mac, but I’m not sure he had anything left.
 
I think you kick the FG there because of Mac Jones barely making it off the field after their last drive. He was hammered by the D-line two plays in a row and may not be able to move much after that.
I thought it made sense to go for it. In regulation it would be a closer call, but in OT the risk is that you might be conceding the tie if you don't get the ball back in enough time to put together another scoring drive.

As for the play call, I'm generally loath to criticize specific calls because there's so much we don't know about what the play design was, what they expected out of the defense, and how well everything was executed. I can certainly see the argument that you put the ball in the hands of your best playmakers -- Stafford, Puka and/or Adams -- and ask them to win the game for you. I can also see the argument that the Rams should have been able to get a yard against SF's beat-up front
 
I thought it made sense to go for it. In regulation it would be a closer call, but in OT the risk is that you might be conceding the tie if you don't get the ball back in enough time to put together another scoring drive.
But you are risking the tie for a loss if you don't make it. A tie is better than a loss.
 
I thought it made sense to go for it. In regulation it would be a closer call, but in OT the risk is that you might be conceding the tie if you don't get the ball back in enough time to put together another scoring drive.
But you are risking the tie for a loss if you don't make it. A tie is better than a loss.
But your odds of converting a 4th and 1 have to be north of 50%. So kicking the FG is conceding a tie in a scenario where the odds of winning are in your favor (OK, that's oversimplifying the math a little. And for some reason the 4th Down Bot didn't track that play).

I think mostly, I'm just not in favor of conceding ties unless there's a pretty clear choice between tying and losing. If you still have a good chance to win the game, IMO you should take it. But I'm not pretending that's any kind of quantitative analysis
 
As mentioned in my previous post, the 4th Down Bot account didn't track that last play in the Rams-Niners game. But what's interesting is that the plays from earlier were not at all what I would have expected.

On the Rams 4th and 3 near the end of regulation, the 4DB strongly favored attempting a 61-yard FG instead of going for it (the Rams converted with a pass to Kyren that made the subsequent FG a much easier attempt). Meanwhile, the bot strongly disagreed with the Rams decision to punt on 4th and 1 from their own 39 with 8m left.

Sorry, I realize now I should have posted this in the "Post here when the 4th Down Bot recommends something you disagree with" thread
 
I thought it made sense to go for it. In regulation it would be a closer call, but in OT the risk is that you might be conceding the tie if you don't get the ball back in enough time to put together another scoring drive.
But you are risking the tie for a loss if you don't make it. A tie is better than a loss.

There was 3:41 left in the game. I don't think the analysis is that simple. You haven't guaranteed a tie. They only have to get into FG range to win and Pineiro had just kicked a 59 yarder. On the other hand, you might get the ball back, though that seems less likely
 
I think mostly, I'm just not in favor of conceding ties unless there's a pretty clear choice between tying and losing. If you still have a good chance to win the game, IMO you should take it. But I'm not pretending that's any kind of quantitative analysis
I guess I don't see kicking with 4 minutes left against a gimpy QB that was getting beat up is conceding a tie. If it was 90 seconds left then sure you would be conceding a tie and I would have a different answer and probably rather go for it. But with about 4 minutes left and a gimpy QB on the other team I am banking my defense can get a stop and get me the ball back.
 
So kicking the FG is conceding a tie

Bud, you can still lose also.

I mean you need to figure out the probability of scoring a TD if you succeed on 4th down. Then you have to factor in what the probability is of losing if you tie the game with 3:41 left and give the ball back to San Francisco.

I think that it would pretty definitively tell you to go for it.
 
Sorry to jump in. I see Gally was thinking of getting the ball back with a hurt Jones. That may well be and that's not something you can run through any bot. It's too specific and too particular an occurrence to have data and history be your guide.

eta* (Sorry, Gally, I was editing) I would have gone for it even if data was off. Jones looked like he'd been shot about three separate times last night. I wouldn't let them touch the ball. Forget that. I would have gone for it, but made sure Puka or Davante were involved. McVay admitted it was a "****ty" play call.
 
Sorry to jump in. I see Gally was thinking of getting the ball back with a hurt Jones. That may well be and that's not something you can run through any bot. It's too specific and too particular an occurrence to have data and history be your guide.
Yep, not to bring up the dreaded "M" word but I think the Rams defense was getting stronger and Jones weaker...and I think that mattered at that point.
 
I think that it would pretty definitively tell you to go for it.
Even with a QB that could barely move after getting drilled on his last two snaps before the FG SF kicked?

Yeah, you've got make that observation and proceed. Pops is a New England fan. I've seen Jones's histrionics a bunch of times. I don't buy any of it. He's a weird dude. He got one of the Panthers (Derrick Brown, I think, or was it Burns?) furious because I think he kicked them in the testicles.

He's done tons of weird stuff and acts out all the time like he's been stabbed, shot, leashed, you name it.

Sorry to jump in. I see Gally was thinking of getting the ball back with a hurt Jones. That may well be and that's not something you can run through any bot. It's too specific and too particular an occurrence to have data and history be your guide.
Yep, not to bring up the dreaded "M" word but I think the Rams defense was getting stronger and Jones weaker...and I think that mattered at that point.

I believe in momentum. Anybody that tries to tell you different is making theory and reason try and supersede the emotional aspect of humanity. Not everything is quantifiable but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist or isn't true. It just doesn't meet the scientific method and empirical demands, but I did this in another thread, you can never prove anything exists from empirical evidence anyway, so it's all a fool's errand.
 
Mac:

Starting a fight with the Panthers


Smacking Sauce Garnder in the testicles with a corroborating witness


Yeah, this happened also. This was . . . unreal. It's a funny meme, but check Jones out on the right.


They blew it up for you. It was completely ridiculous then, and I'm remembering what I thought of him and sort of recoiling in disgust.


Mac Jones in more agony after a Miami game in 2022. Look at the walk!


This is the one I remember. Watch what he does to Brian Burns. Ridiculous.

 
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I thought that SF made a significant mistake when they got the ball on their own 1 with about a minute left, basically conceding the punt by running up the middle 3 times (including a QB sneak on first down). They were more worried than they should've been about taking a safety, which would've been bad but not horrendous, and should've thrown the ball at least once (probably multiple times).

A 3-and-out probably gives the ball back to LA around midfield with about 45 seconds left, and no timeouts if all 3 plays ended in-bounds. At best that gives SF a 50-50 shot to win in regulation, because LA just needs 1 first down to get into field goal range.

A safety is worse for SF than that, obviously, since it means that a Rams FG wins it for LA in regulation, but it also means that LA is probably starting around their own 30 rather than around midfield which makes it significantly harder to get into FG range. Probably LA is less than than 50-50 to get points on that drive, even with a timeout or two and a few more seconds on the clock, which means SF is still favored to win the game.

Even if normalish dropback passing gives SF a 10% chance at taking a sack or penalty for a safety, it gives them much more than a 10% higher chance of picking up the first down and ending the game, so they should've been willing to take the chance of passing the ball rather than being so paranoid about avoiding the safety.
 
I thought that SF made a significant mistake when they got the ball on their own 1 with about a minute left, basically conceding the punt by running up the middle 3 times (including a QB sneak on first down). They were more worried than they should've been about taking a safety, which would've been bad but not horrendous, and should've thrown the ball at least once (probably multiple times).

A 3-and-out probably gives the ball back to LA around midfield with about 45 seconds left, and no timeouts if all 3 plays ended in-bounds. At best that gives SF a 50-50 shot to win in regulation, because LA just needs 1 first down to get into field goal range.

A safety is worse for SF than that, obviously, since it means that a Rams FG wins it for LA in regulation, but it also means that LA is probably starting around their own 30 rather than around midfield which makes it significantly harder to get into FG range. Probably LA is less than than 50-50 to get points on that drive, even with a timeout or two and a few more seconds on the clock, which means SF is still favored to win the game.

Even if normalish dropback passing gives SF a 10% chance at taking a sack or penalty for a safety, it gives them much more than a 10% higher chance of picking up the first down and ending the game, so they should've been willing to take the chance of passing the ball rather than being so paranoid about avoiding the safety.

I totally agree only I didn't get up in arms about it because the possibility of taking a safety plus kicking the ball away seemed like something they should avoid. But I didn't like the play sequence anyway. I think McCaffrey at that point is better if you can somehow get him the ball in space, but you don't see many screens coming out of a team's own end zone, so I was a bit stuck. I think Shanahan had to scheme Bourne and Robinson open because Bourne isn't lighting quick and Robinson is still rounding into form. So I understood but agree with you.
 
So kicking the FG is conceding a tie

Bud, you can still lose also.

I mean you need to figure out the probability of scoring a TD if you succeed on 4th down. Then you have to factor in what the probability is of losing if you tie the game with 3:41 left and give the ball back to San Francisco.

I think that it would pretty definitively tell you to go for it.
Yes, I should have said "conceding a tie at best". Obviously, all possibilities are on the table, but your odds of stopping them, getting the ball back, and engineering another scoring drive are fairly small. And you're also right that it's still possible to lose the game, which obviously tilts it even further in favor of going for it
 
As mentioned in my previous post, the 4th Down Bot account didn't track that last play in the Rams-Niners game
BTW, it occurs to me that the reason that play wasn't tracked is because OT messes up all the WP models and makes it harder to project any specific decision. I'm not sure why -- couldn't you just count a tie as half a win and factor that into your calculations? -- but I bet anything that's the reason
 
I believe in momentum. Anybody that tries to tell you different is making theory and reason try and supersede the emotional aspect of humanity. Not everything is quantifiable but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist or isn't true. It just doesn't meet the scientific method and empirical demands, but I did this in another thread, you can never prove anything exists from empirical evidence anyway, so it's all a fool's errand.
Not to reopen this can of worms, but I'll just say my objection to momentum isn't that it doesn't exist, it's that it's very hard to use in any predictive capacity, and more often than not is used retrospectively as a crutch argument to argue in favor of whatever someone already believes. So if a team goes for two, fails, and then loses, people attribute it to the momentum swing. But if they fail and then still hold on no one mentions it, or else they cite something the other team did that swung it back the other way, in which case, how damaging could that momentum swing have been if it could so easily swing back?
 
I believe in momentum. Anybody that tries to tell you different is making theory and reason try and supersede the emotional aspect of humanity. Not everything is quantifiable but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist or isn't true. It just doesn't meet the scientific method and empirical demands, but I did this in another thread, you can never prove anything exists from empirical evidence anyway, so it's all a fool's errand.
Not to reopen this can of worms, but I'll just say my objection to momentum isn't that it doesn't exist, it's that it's very hard to use in any predictive capacity, and more often than not is used retrospectively as a crutch argument to argue in favor of whatever someone already believes. So if a team goes for two, fails, and then loses, people attribute it to the momentum swing. But if they fail and then still hold on no one mentions it, or else they cite something the other team did that swung it back the other way, in which case, how damaging could that momentum swing have been if it could so easily swing back?
I’ve read a number of discussions about momentum from folks way smarter than me, but most led to the same conclusion. Momentum happens. That’s true. But it’s totally unpredictable, and further, it shifts all the time. That game was a beautiful example.

TBH the craziest part of that game was the kickoff in OT, from a guy the booth described as an artist at the new rules, yet he completely flubbed it. Karty cost the rams 4 points and then field position in OT. A series of rake-stepping. I guess one could say he had momentum too. lol
 
Not to reopen this can of worms, but I'll just say my objection to momentum isn't that it doesn't exist, it's that it's very hard to use in any predictive capacity, and more often than not is used retrospectively as a crutch argument to argue in favor of whatever someone already believes. So if a team goes for two, fails, and then loses, people attribute it to the momentum swing. But if they fail and then still hold on no one mentions it, or else they cite something the other team did that swung it back the other way, in which case, how damaging could that momentum swing have been if it could so easily swing back?

I dig that and it's a fair comment if you're looking at it with a goal in mind.

See, it's weird but I can remember games (just varsity high school) where you felt it and knew it. It's just a feeling, however, and you can't really explain it, pinpoint it, or quantify it. You can explain it and I wonder why there's an audience that refuses to believe something so almost universally held by the people participating. This isn't directed at you, but can you imagine a ton of other situations where that happens in this day in age? What's weirder is that people who do not listen to the practitioners of the thing when they are describing what is happening is a weird sort of authoritative claim to objectivity and truth about that which they do not have personal knowledge of. I get why they might feel that way about unreason or emotion but there's just a weird hierarchy that it implies and it was always off-putting to me.

To address your objection about not being able to use it in any predictive capacity, well there are two objections I have. That doesn't mean that it doesn't exist like Gally and I are discussing, but I'll see your complaint about coaches using it to make decisions (or worse, ducking the ramifications of properly made decisions by copping out with a convenient excuse that nobody can disprove). But I've already submitted that momentum exists, and that participants can feel it as it happens. To take a decision-maker and strip of that sort of claim or authority to act on behalf of his players in the name of that which seems to fail the bounds of that which is reasonable, you kind of have to assume that the people making the immediate decisions, who are intimately familiar on a corporeal and emotional level with the players who are tasked with following that decision-maker's directions as best they can—well, you have to assume that the decision-maker either 1) does not deserve the autonomy and authority to make decisions regarding his players' feelings at the time of the momentum shift, or 2) he cannot access or be privy to his players' feelings at the time of the momentum shift because it is actually impossible to identify or act upon a momentum swing before it does its full damage are really making some pretty drastic arguments. The second reason is more plausible and less contradictory than the first. Saying that this is impossible to either identify or to stop either places us back in the first paragraph or strangely claims that humans no longer have agency over forces that they thought they controlled just a moment ago. So that seems strange. The first assertion, which sought to tell the coach or decision-maker he should not act upon this and therefore, decisions like that are the purview of the front office totally defeats the purpose of an arbiter and decision-maker placed among the men playing the game. His raison d'etre is to not only communicate decisions rapidly, but to gauge and deal with the emotional responses to both the game and also the hopefully wise and prudent judgments made by the coach. The emotional part of the equation is half of the reason he has the position of coach. It's inherent in the job description. Anyway, this has been a half an hour. Thanks for the time.
 
Not to reopen this can of worms, but I'll just say my objection to momentum isn't that it doesn't exist, it's that it's very hard to use in any predictive capacity, and more often than not is used retrospectively as a crutch argument to argue in favor of whatever someone already believes. So if a team goes for two, fails, and then loses, people attribute it to the momentum swing. But if they fail and then still hold on no one mentions it, or else they cite something the other team did that swung it back the other way, in which case, how damaging could that momentum swing have been if it could so easily swing back?

I dig that and it's a fair comment if you're looking at it with a goal in mind.

See, it's weird but I can remember games (just varsity high school) where you felt it and knew it. It's just a feeling, however, and you can't really explain it, pinpoint it, or quantify it. You can explain it and I wonder why there's an audience that refuses to believe something so almost universally held by the people participating. This isn't directed at you, but can you imagine a ton of other situations where that happens in this day in age? What's weirder is that people who do not listen to the practitioners of the thing when they are describing what is happening is a weird sort of authoritative claim to objectivity and truth about that which they do not have personal knowledge of. I get why they might feel that way about unreason or emotion but there's just a weird hierarchy that it implies and it was always off-putting to me.

To address your objection about not being able to use it in any predictive capacity, well there are two objections I have. That doesn't mean that it doesn't exist like Gally and I are discussing, but I'll see your complaint about coaches using it to make decisions (or worse, ducking the ramifications of properly made decisions by copping out with a convenient excuse that nobody can disprove). But I've already submitted that momentum exists, and that participants can feel it as it happens. To take a decision-maker and strip of that sort of claim or authority to act on behalf of his players in the name of that which seems to fail the bounds of that which is reasonable, you kind of have to assume that the people making the immediate decisions, who are intimately familiar on a corporeal and emotional level with the players who are tasked with following that decision-maker's directions as best they can—well, you have to assume that the decision-maker either 1) does not deserve the autonomy and authority to make decisions regarding his players' feelings at the time of the momentum shift, or 2) he cannot access or be privy to his players' feelings at the time of the momentum shift because it is actually impossible to identify or act upon a momentum swing before it does its full damage are really making some pretty drastic arguments. The second reason is more plausible and less contradictory than the first. Saying that this is impossible to either identify or to stop either places us back in the first paragraph or strangely claims that humans no longer have agency over forces that they thought they controlled just a moment ago. So that seems strange. The first assertion, which sought to tell the coach or decision-maker he should not act upon this and therefore, decisions like that are the purview of the front office totally defeats the purpose of an arbiter and decision-maker placed among the men playing the game. His raison d'etre is to not only communicate decisions rapidly, but to gauge and deal with the emotional responses to both the game and also the hopefully wise and prudent judgments made by the coach. The emotional part of the equation is half of the reason he has the position of coach. It's inherent in the job description. Anyway, this has been a half an hour. Thanks for the time.
Ain't nobody got time to read all that :wink:

Not saying it's never happened, but I'm not sure I can remember a case of a coach citing momentum as a factor in their decision-making process. I suspect that even if they did, they wouldn't use that word to describe it. "Why'd you go for two there?" "I felt like we really had 'em on the ropes and I wanted to finish them off."

In any event, I certainly have no objection to a coach going by feel, especially on a 50-50 (or even 55-45) decision. They obviously have to take into account so many different factors that us jabronis watching at home have no idea about.

What bothers me are the armchair QBs who, after the fact, criticize a specific decision on the basis of negative momentum (and have you noticed it's always negative? No one ever says, "That was a really smart decision because it built on their positive momentum.")

Anyway, I said I didn't want to get into this and now I have. But I think we're mostly in agreement on this stuff
 
I believe in momentum. Anybody that tries to tell you different is making theory and reason try and supersede the emotional aspect of humanity. Not everything is quantifiable but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist or isn't true. It just doesn't meet the scientific method and empirical demands, but I did this in another thread, you can never prove anything exists from empirical evidence anyway, so it's all a fool's errand.
Not to reopen this can of worms, but I'll just say my objection to momentum isn't that it doesn't exist, it's that it's very hard to use in any predictive capacity, and more often than not is used retrospectively as a crutch argument to argue in favor of whatever someone already believes. So if a team goes for two, fails, and then loses, people attribute it to the momentum swing. But if they fail and then still hold on no one mentions it, or else they cite something the other team did that swung it back the other way, in which case, how damaging could that momentum swing have been if it could so easily swing back?
I’ve read a number of discussions about momentum from folks way smarter than me, but most led to the same conclusion. Momentum happens. That’s true. But it’s totally unpredictable, and further, it shifts all the time. That game was a beautiful example.

TBH the craziest part of that game was the kickoff in OT, from a guy the booth described as an artist at the new rules, yet he completely flubbed it. Karty cost the rams 4 points and then field position in OT. A series of rake-stepping. I guess one could say he had momentum too. lol
You know, before I read your post I was thinking about the 4DB recommending kicking the 61-yarder, and I could kinda sorta squint and understand the mathematical argument. Yes, your chances of hitting from 61 are slim, but if you go for it, you have probably <50% chance of converting, and even if you do, you might only advance it a few yards closer in the final 25 seconds, so you're dramatically lowering the odds that you will get to attempt a FG while not substantially improving the odds that you will make it. The actual result, a 13yd completion to Williams, was basically the second-best possible scenario (the best being scoring a long TD). Mathematically speaking, they hit on 17 and pulled a 3.

But your post highlighted what the model couldn't take into account: Karty had had a pretty crappy game to that point, and in no way would they have felt confident counting on him to hit a 61-yarder. If it had been the Cowboys with Aubrey? Sure. (In fact, the Cowboys faced an almost identical decision against the Giants a few weeks ago, and he nailed a 64-yarder to force OT). But I think that was exactly the kind of decision where it was smart to ignore the numbers
 
Problems with momentum arguments:

It generally only describes what has happened. It lacks predictive power.

It further lacks predictive power because even if you believe it affects future performance, it does so in different ways. Some guys lock in with the odds against them. Some guys step off the gas when they have it. Some guys go for the throat. Some guys give up. Some teams have varying mixes of all those guys.

You do occasionally hear a coach or analyst say a team needs to stop the bleeding. I guess that's a momentum reference. But isn't it just as easily a reference to "stop getting your *** kicked"? Like you'd always want momentum because it means you're winning. You never want the other team to have it because it means it hasn't been going well for you.

It's just not a useful predictive thing. It doesn't impact the future reliably. That's why all analytics models pretty much agree it's useless.
 
Predictability as a useful tool is one thing. Accurately describing phenomena is another. Momentum is a concept that is required to be included in order to understand the phenomena. But those are two different uses. Yet I would maintain that a strong understanding of the landscape and of the system is necessary before any predictive work can be attempted.

It is ok that momentum may not be useful for predictive purposes. I think it's at least possible we just haven't figured out how to use it that way yet but even if not, it still has incredibly significant utility in explaining phenomena and observations. To dismiss it offhand is a mistake.

My favorite example of this is if you were a fan and just turned the TV on with 5 minutes left in a basketball game (it's simpler than football) and one team had a 7 point lead but their body language was terrible and they were on the road and the home crowd was going crazy... knowing nothing else would you bet on the team that was at home and had the momentum and the positive energy despite being down by 7 on the scoreboard? Maybe, right? What if the announcer then says that team is on a 25-5 run when they cut it to 7? The odds are still probably something like 50/50 at best but momentum is clearly a huge factor. Can it be predictive? Probably not but momentum is at the core of competitive endeavours and cannot be summarily dismissed.

If you don't think the other team can be stopped because of the momentum their offense holds against your defense, then maybe it makes sense to go for the win in OT like McVay did. Or maybe it was more about his disdain for a tie that wasn't guaranteed to begin with. I feel like the chances the Niners march down the field and kick a winning FG are more like 75%. Going for the win was the right call in every way. And I can't say I hate the playcall. Execution always matters and if a given Defensive lineman can blow up the running play who is to say they don't blow up whatever other 20/20 hindsight call you wanna make.
 
Predictability as a useful tool is one thing. Accurately describing phenomena is another. Momentum is a concept that is required to be included in order to understand the phenomena. But those are two different uses. Yet I would maintain that a strong understanding of the landscape and of the system is necessary before any predictive work can be attempted.

It is ok that momentum may not be useful for predictive purposes. I think it's at least possible we just haven't figured out how to use it that way yet but even if not, it still has incredibly significant utility in explaining phenomena and observations. To dismiss it offhand is a mistake.

My favorite example of this is if you were a fan and just turned the TV on with 5 minutes left in a basketball game (it's simpler than football) and one team had a 7 point lead but their body language was terrible and they were on the road and the home crowd was going crazy... knowing nothing else would you bet on the team that was at home and had the momentum and the positive energy despite being down by 7 on the scoreboard? Maybe, right? What if the announcer then says that team is on a 25-5 run when they cut it to 7? The odds are still probably something like 50/50 at best but momentum is clearly a huge factor. Can it be predictive? Probably not but momentum is at the core of competitive endeavours and cannot be summarily dismissed.

If you don't think the other team can be stopped because of the momentum their offense holds against your defense, then maybe it makes sense to go for the win in OT like McVay did. Or maybe it was more about his disdain for a tie that wasn't guaranteed to begin with. I feel like the chances the Niners march down the field and kick a winning FG are more like 75%. Going for the win was the right call in every way. And I can't say I hate the playcall. Execution always matters and if a given Defensive lineman can blow up the running play who is to say they don't blow up whatever other 20/20 hindsight call you wanna make.
I'm not sure you're appropriately splitting predictive or not.

To say "you don't think the other team can be stopped because of the momentum their offense holds against your defense" IS A PREDICTIVE STATEMENT. That's exactly the kind of thing I think it's patently silly to say.

Now, we could get into the other issue - the person is really saying "their offense has been beating us over and over, I think they figured something out." And maybe the name some people give to that is "momentum," but I think that's misnaming the phenomenon isn't it?

To be clear - the point of all research and what I am saying is this exact example you have would be idiotic. It's like saying the roulette came up black the last two times, so I better bet black again. The last two things being old have no inherent predictive power by happening in a row. Underlying causes? Those may have power. But momentum is not a cause. It's a backward looking descriptor of events.

Why do you say momentum is a huge factor when a team is coming back? Every study ever says it really isn't. It may FEEL like something, but it only matters if that feeling causes a difference in performance by either team. Otherwise it's just the difference between getting three blacks followed by 3 reds vs getting 1 of each alternating all six rolls.


ETA: if your example has no knowledge of what the score used to be but all the body language and the current score was what you saw, you'd offer the same insight right? So this mythical "momentum" doesn't really change the answer at all.
 
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