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Predict next year's top ten preseason running backs (1 Viewer)

JuniorNB

Footballguy
Looking at last year's preseason draft rankings, three guys who were ranked in the top ten (on Espn.com) are not in the top ten this year. This is based on ESPN's September 2nd, 2012 update.

2012

1. Foster

2. Rice

3. McCoy

4. C.Johnson

5. Jones-Drew

6. Lynch

7. Forte

8. Murray

9. J. Charles

10. Peterson

Some notable in-demand backs and where they ranked at this time last year: Trent Richardson (15), Stevan Ridley (24), Doug Martin (27), CJ Spiller (33), Alfred Morris (57). So, five guys who weren't ranked that highly one year ago, are very much in demand at this year's draft.

So what is your guess at next Labor Day's top ten back list?

 
Here's my stab:

1. A Peterson

2. L McCoy

3. J Charles

4. David Wilson

5. D. Martin

6. E. Lacy

7. T. Richardson

8. G. Bernard

9. CJ Spiller

10. Rice

 
if DeAngelo is cut as I think he will be due to salary cap issues, Stewart is going to be one of the sneakiest underrated RBs out there. His value is absolutely in the toilet right now, but next year, payoff FINALLY arrives!!

 
I'll give this a shot:

1. Adrian Peterson

2. David Wilson

3. Jamaal Charles

4. Trent Richardson

5. LeSean McCoy

6. CJ Spiller

7. Doug Martin

8. Ray Rice

9. Chris Johnson

10. Alfred Morris

I think it'll be a lot like this season though where next year Wilson, Charles and Richardson will all be between 2-4 in random slots based on peoples personal preferences.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Morris will be there somehow. I don't know how a guy could have 2,800+ (and that's assuming only 1,200/7 this year) rushing yards and 20+ rushing TDs in his first two seasons on the NFL and not be a top 10 guy going into his 3rd year.

 
So tough, cause there's about 20 guys who could break the top 10 and it depends mainly on injuries.

1. Peterson

2. Trich

3. Mccoy

4. C.Johnson

5. Spiller

6. Morris

7. Charles

8. Martin

9. Lacy/Bernard (whichever blows up)

10. Wilson

In the hunt: Forte, Rice, Michael, Ball, Foster

Outside looking in: MJD, Sjax, Bush

 
Check out last season top rb's pre-season below

I think the list for 2013 will be very different than the posts above

possible top ten in 2013 Daryl Richarson, David Wilson, Eddie Lacy, G Bernard, C Michael, Forte, Ben Tate, Monte Ball, mixed in with about half of this years pre-season top ten rbs.



  • Pick 1.01 - RB1 Arian Foster, Hou/8 (ADP = 1)
  • Pick 1.02 - RB2 Ray Rice, Bal/8 (ADP = 2)
  • Pick 1.03 - RB3 LeSean McCoy, Phi/7 (ADP = 4)
  • Pick 1.04 - QB1 Aaron Rodgers, GB/10 (ADP = 3)
  • Pick 1.05 - WR1 Calvin Johnson, Det/5 (ADP = 6)
  • Pick 1.06 – RB4 Darren McFadden, Oak/5 (ADP = 9)
  • Pick 1.07 – RB5 Matt Forte, Chi/6 (ADP = 10)
  • Pick 1.08 – QB2 Drew Brees, NO/6 (ADP = 8)
  • Pick 1.09 – RB6 DeMarco Murray, Dal/5 (ADP = 15)
  • Pick 1.10 – QB3 Tom Brady, NE/9 (ADP = 5)
  • Pick 1.11 – RB7 Chris Johnson, Ten/11 (ADP = 7)
  • Pick 1.12 – RB8 Jamaal Charles, KC/7 (ADP = 20)
  • Pick 2.01 – TE1 Jimmy Graham, NO/6 (ADP = 11)
  • Pick 2.02 – RB9 Adrian Peterson, Min/11 (ADP = 19)
  • Pick 2.03 – TE2 Rob Gronkowski, NE/9 (ADP = 16)
  • Pick 2.04 – RB10 Steven Jackson, Stl/9 (ADP = 23)
 
Morris will be there somehow. I don't know how a guy could have 2,800+ (and that's assuming only 1,200/7 this year) rushing yards and 20+ rushing TDs in his first two seasons on the NFL and not be a top 10 guy going into his 3rd year.
Agree 100%

 
if DeAngelo is cut as I think he will be due to salary cap issues, Stewart is going to be one of the sneakiest underrated RBs out there. His value is absolutely in the toilet right now, but next year, payoff FINALLY arrives!!
Have fun with that.

Nice thread and it will be fun to look back at it next year:

In no particular order

Martin

McCoy

Spiller

Morris

Wilson

ADP

Rice

Charles

Trent

CJ Anderson

 
if DeAngelo is cut as I think he will be due to salary cap issues, Stewart is going to be one of the sneakiest underrated RBs out there. His value is absolutely in the toilet right now, but next year, payoff FINALLY arrives!!
I think it's time to put this thought process to bed. Might have been true in 2011 and 2012, but this ship has sailed.

 
Lets just look at historical data from the past few seasons. Players highlight in red suffered severe injuries (missed more than 2 games).

2012 Top 10 ADP RBs

PreRank Player Finished

1 Arian Foster 2

2 Ray Rice 6

3 LeSean McCoy 21

4 Darren McFadden 28

5 Chris Johnson 12

6 Matt Forte 13

7 DeMarco Murray 26

8 Maurice Jones-Drew 52

9 Marshawn Lynch 4

10 Jamaal Charles 8

2012 Top 10 Finished RBs

Rank Player Drafted

1 Adrian Peterson 11

2 Arian Foster 1

3 Doug Martin 15

4 Marshawn Lynch 9

5 Alfred Morris 48

6 Ray Rice 2

7 C.J. Spiller 40

8 Jamaal Charles 10

9 Trent Richardson 16

10 Stevan Ridley 24

So in 2012 only 4 of the Top 10 Pre Season ranked RBs finished in the Top 10; 3 from the Top 20 finished in the Top 10 and 3 from outside the Top 20 finished. We had four significant Top 10 injuries.

2011 Top 10 ADP RBs

PreRank Player Finished

1 Adrian Peterson 8

2 Ray Rice 1

3 Arian Foster 4

4 Chris Johnson 16

5 Jamaal Charles 96

6 LeSean McCoy 2

7 Rashard Mendenhall 19

8 Maurice Jones-Drew 3

9 Darren McFadden 34

10 Michael Turner 6

2011 Top 10 Finished RBs

Rank Player Drafted

1 Ray Rice 2

2 LeSean McCoy 6

3 Maurice Jones-Drew 8

4 Arian Foster 3

5 Marshawn Lynch 30

6 Michael Turner 10

7 Ryan Mathews 20

8 Adrian Peterson 1

9 Michael Bush 40

10 Darren Sproles 44

So in 2011 we had 6 of the Top 10 Pre Season ranked RBs finish in the Top 10; 1 from the Top 20 and 3 from outside the Top 20. We also once again had 4 significant Top 10 injuries during the season.

2010 Top 10 ADP RBs

PreRank Player Finished

1 Chris Johnson 5

2 Adrian Peterson 3

3 Ray Rice 11

4 Maurice Jones-Drew 12

5 Frank Gore 20

6 Michael Turner 9

7 Steven Jackson 14

8 Ryan Mathews 32

9 Rashard Mendenhall 7

10 DeAngelo Williams 63

2010 Top 10 Finished RBs

Rank Player Drafted

1 Arian Foster 16

2 Peyton Hillis 60

3 Adrian Peterson 2

4 Jamaal Charles 12

5 Chris Johnson 1

6 Darren McFadden 42

7 Rashard Mendenhall 9

8 LeSean McCoy 17

9 Michael Turner 6

10 Matt Forte 19

So in 2010 we had 4 of the Top 10 Pre Season ranked RBs finish in the Top 10; 4 from the Top 20 and 2 from outside the top 20. We also had 3 significant Top 10 injuries during the season.

So just breaking this down we see the following as sort of 'averages' if you will from the last three seasons.

Top 10 PreSeason Rankings usually produce about 4-5 Top 10 finishers each season. About 3 of the Top 10 preseason ranked options will fall prey to a significant enough injury that it bumps them from the Top 10. On average there are about 2-3 RBs from 11-20 who make the 'elite-jump'. This seasons options are interesting as a lot of them are names we've seen in the past and really only 2 are interesting unknown question marks.

RB12: Chris Johnson

RB15: MJD

RB16: Reggie Bush

RB18: David Wilson

RB20: Eddie Lacy

More than likely 2-3 of these 5 guys will finish in the top 10.

Just looking outside the Top 20 guys I think could have real potential:

DeAngelo Williams - RB32: News is coming out that Stewart may not even play all season. This is a new system that may play more to Williams potential and now with there being no real threat to his rushing attempts it's possible he puts up Top 10 numbers again. He won't approach his 20TDs again because of Newton. But 1200 yards and 12 TDs isn't completely out of the question for him.

Ben Tate - RB33: He's looked amazing all preseason, Kubiak has said he'll see a more significant in season role with Foster healthy or not. This is a Super Bowl aspiring team they know they'll need Foster to get them through the post-season. If Foster happens to miss any significant amount of time from these nagging injuries he's seeing, Tate immediately becomes a RB1.

Bryce Brown - RB40: Just like with Tate, he'll also probably see 10-15 touches a game simply because of the high tempo offense in Philly. McCoy hasn't been healthy as of late. if McCoy happens to miss another 4+ games this season it's possible that Bryce dominates and becomes a Top 10 RB the rest of the way.

Joique Bell - RB52: He's the CLEAR #2 option in Detroit and a phenomenal pass catcher. He finished as RB29 last season with limited work behind LeShoure. He has the skillset to blow up if something were to happen to Bush.

 
1. TRich

2. McCoy

3. Spiller

4.Martin

5. C. Michael

6. Charles

7. Morris

8. Wilson

9. Forte

10. C. Johnson

And no, I didn't forget about AP, Rice, lynch, Foster and Forte. They ain't there for a reason.

 
In the interests of a serious discussion, instead of people posting random lists with their favorite rb way up at the top, let's talk about some of these guys.

adrian peterson will be the number one pick for the next couple years. Even if he tears another acl, he will be top ten.

Darren mcfadden can be the number one back this year and he won't go above top five because people will always worry about the injury risk.

Same thing is true about cj2k and the flakiness of his down seasons. I love him this year and I think he can be top five, but there are still 10+ backs I would take ahead of him. People who don't like him as much as I do have a longer list. Hard to picture him going top 5, and certainly not first or second overall.

Richardson is probably the only guy I can see moving into the number one overall spot. Yes, he has injury concerns too, but the norv turner factor and the overall talent could push him ahead of peterson if needed.

Mccoy, martin, spiller, charles, foster, lynch, rice are all obvious candidates to stay in the mix. But lynch has michael behind him, and that could push him out of the top tier.

Fosters value could nosedive this season with an injury and a successful tate season. Ditto mccoy and brown, but I'm not sold on browns long term potential. Rice and pierce have a similar problem too, but rice is the man there until he isn't.

Unlike those guys, martin, spiller and charles just have to earn it. It might make sense to put them slightly higher on the list than the others. But I can easily see martin having a sophomore slump, or spiller failing in his first real shot as a full season starter, or charles getting hurt again. And if any of that happens, it will impact next years top ten.

Next we have forte and sjax. They're pretty unlikely to move up, because forte doesn't get goal line carries and sjax is old.

Wilson and miller are fairly likely to move up. A healthy and not unsuccessful season could bump those guys up by default if the guys ahead of them stumble.

Then there's the rookies. Lacy could make the jump with a big season. Id be surprised to see him in the top five, but he can flirt with top ten like ryan grant used to. Gio could get there if he was sure to have goal line carries, or if bjge got the boot in the offseason. Montee ball would become top ten just by playing studly down the stretch - as long as peyton has another year in him.

Lattimore and michael would probably be top fifteen at best - people would be very high on their potential if they got starting jobs next year, but they probably won't have enough opportunity to show something this year.

There are other guys who could break through. Bradshaw could get there with a fully healthy rb1 season. I would be surprised if ballard got there. Richardson could put up big numbers and get there easily, as could any of the other stl rbs.

I'm sure I'm missing a few, even on a list with way more than ten guys on it, but this seems more productive than an arbitrary top ten

 
So what is the agreed upon 2013 list everyone is looking at???

Peterson

Martin

Charles

Spiller

McCoy

Rice

Richardson

Foster

Lynch

Morris

Forte

Sjax

*****

The stat I recall is that something like, over the last 5 years (2007-12) about 63% of all RB's in the top-12 in any given year are not there the next year.

I'm guessing out of the top 12 from this year we will see again next year:

Peterson

Charles

Martin

Spiller

McCoy

Richardson

Forte

Foster

Players I think who may drop out:

Lynch (Michael, Turbin...)

Rice (Pierce)

Morris (hey, it's Shanahan)

SJax (Turner redux...)

Replace with:

Vereen

Wilson

Miller

Chris Johnson

- That's 1/3 turnover, which if the stat above is right might be a little low. Someone's gotta go.

 
So what is the agreed upon 2013 list everyone is looking at???

Peterson

Martin

Charles

Spiller

McCoy

Rice

Richardson

Foster

Lynch

Morris

Forte

Sjax

*****

The stat I recall is that something like, over the last 5 years (2007-12) about 63% of all RB's in the top-12 in any given year are not there the next year.

I'm guessing out of the top 12 from this year we will see again next year:

Peterson

Charles

Martin

Spiller

McCoy

Richardson

Forte

Foster

Players I think who may drop out:

Lynch (Michael, Turbin...)

Rice (Pierce)

Morris (hey, it's Shanahan)

SJax (Turner redux...)

Replace with:

Vereen

Wilson

Miller

Chris Johnson

- That's 1/3 turnover, which if the stat above is right might be a little low. Someone's gotta go.
If you look at my post right above yours as well you'll just from the past three years of data at least, we had of 4, 6 and 4 Top 10 to Top 10 finishes. So call the average about half of the top 10 remains there at the end of the season not 63%. Unless 2009 and 2008 had about 7-8 of the Top 10 remain the same it can't be 63%.

So out of the current 2013 ADP lets take a look... (taken from http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=12&pos=rb)

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Doug Martin

3. Marshawn Lynch

4. Jamaal Charles

5. Arian Foster

6. LeSean McCoy

7. CJ Spiller

8. Trent Richardson

9. Ray Rice

10. Alfred Morris

I think if we are going to take a guess at this it's best to immediately drop Foster and McCoy as they are the CLEAR highest injury risks in the Top 10 as of this moment. Foster has lingering issues and McCoy has the worst injury history of the bunch as he's never completed 16 games. So we're down to 8 players. Next, I'd probably say that Ray Rice could drop out as I think the Ravens will be behind a lot more than they are used to and it will result in a lot more passing downs late in the game. After that it becomes sort of a toss up, if I had to guess the best bet for remaining Top 10 players after this season would be:

Adrian Peterson

Doug Martin

Marshawn Lynch

Jamaal Charles

Alfred Morris

Richardson is definitely the highest injury risk outside of McCoy and Foster and Buffalo has way to many offensive questions for me to just throw Spiller into the fray as a guaranteed producer.

From the Top 20 I'd say the most likely to jump to the Top 10 this season would be Chris Johnson, Steven Ridley and David Wilson. And I already posted my few late late sleepers for the out of Top 20 producers to make the jump a few posts above.

 

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