Predict The Future By Learning From The Past - QB (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Predict The Future By Learning From The Past. My buddy @SigmundBloom with what we learned from the QB position this past year. Enjoy. And please share if you like it.

What We Learned in 2022: Quarterback

What we learned about the quarterback position in fantasy football leagues in 2022

www.footballguys.com

What are your items for this list?

 

[zamboni]

Good article - I agree with virtually all of the takes there, with the possible exception of "The waiver wire will always be there for us at quarterback".

We're seeing a perhaps the biggest bifurcation in recent memory at QB, with so many of the old guard (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, etc.) either hanging it up or falling off in production - along with so many new, unproven QB situations. Thus as of now, there is a widening gap between the top tier and the bulk of the pack. Perhaps that gap will narrow a bit over the season as some of the next tier guys take a big leap forward, but as we head into our drafts, it seems uncomfortable to wait too long on QB - particularly in superflex/2QB leagues - and figure you can just find someone decent out there on the waiver wire.

 

[Insein]

Good article - I agree with virtually all of the takes there, with the possible exception of "The waiver wire will always be there for us at quarterback".

We're seeing a perhaps the biggest bifurcation in recent memory at QB, with so many of the old guard (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, etc.) either hanging it up or falling off in production and so many new QB situations. Thus as of now, there is a widening gap between the top tier and the bulk of the pack. Perhaps that gap will narrow a bit over the season as some of the next tier guys take a big leap forward, but as we head into our drafts, it seems uncomfortable to wait too long on QB - particularly in superflex/2QB leagues.

​

Agreed. This is the first year in memory going in where I feel like I need to get a QB not necessarily early but before the 6th round.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Coaching matters too for QB. One reason I was high on Daniel Jones heading into the season was Daboll previously coached Josh Allen. My teams didn't fare well enough prior to week 7 for the gamble to pay off but it was nice to see Jones succeed. Going into next season, Mac Jones should benefit from a coordinator change. But otherwise, I don't see any standout sleeper pics. Maybe Watson turns it around? I do really like Goff for a value pick.

 

[Scoresman]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

 

[Scoresman]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

 

[zamboni]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

Good data support there. It will be interesting to see if the positional drop was a one-year blip or the start of a trend. Unfortunately, we won't have that data yet when this year's drafts occur.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

How did rushing TDs do? Was there any rise to compensate or was overall scoring just down? Lots of QB sneaks/pushes to go with just handing off at the goal line? Or maybe not?

 

[Scoresman]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

How did rushing TDs do? Was there any rise to compensate or was overall scoring just down? Lots of QB sneaks/pushes to go with just handing off at the goal line? Or maybe not?

Scoring was down everywhere overall. Rushing TDs down 6%, but Attempts up by 4% and yards up 6%.

I don't know why TDs are down across the board like this. I know TDs are fluky, but there's a clear trend here for this year.

 

[socrates]

Excellent article. I think it is important to make an honest assessment at the end of each season to identify trends and extract lessons which may be applied going forward.

I agree with most of Bloom's points, but not so much on these two points:

"Patrick Mahomes II is still the king, but Tyreek Hill is a kingmaker"
I agree on count 1, but calling Tua Tagovailoa a king, even factoring in injury absences, is a stretch. Perhaps he came up Prince Farquaad big with Tyreek in the fold. If we are looking for lessons which can be applied going forward, I don't know what that is. (Perhaps it says more about coaching and play calling than anything.) Davante Adams, like Hill, changed teams, and we did not see a step up in production from Carr; however, Hurts improved this season after acquiring AJ Brown. I don't think we can glean much from Marquise Brown's presence in Arizona.

"Sophomore first-round picks had a wide range of outcomes, but were overall a good investment"
Trevor Lawrence was a very good investment. Justin Fields may have won you some games. However, by and large, I would not have called sophomore QBs a good bet this past season. I don't know that we really learned anything of significant value from this sophomore class that we can apply going forward.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

That's a great observation. Y'all should dig into this more.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

good stuff. any chance 2021 passing TDs were an outlier to the upside or is this a regression from recent seasons as well?

 

[Ilov80s]

Good article - I agree with virtually all of the takes there, with the possible exception of "The waiver wire will always be there for us at quarterback".

We're seeing a perhaps the biggest bifurcation in recent memory at QB, with so many of the old guard (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, etc.) either hanging it up or falling off in production - along with so many new, unproven QB situations. Thus as of now, there is a widening gap between the top tier and the bulk of the pack. Perhaps that gap will narrow a bit over the season as some of the next tier guys take a big leap forward, but as we head into our drafts, it seems uncomfortable to wait too long on QB - particularly in superflex/2QB leagues - and figure you can just find someone decent out there on the waiver wire.

It really depends on league depth and the behavior of your league mates. but there were some really good WW QBs this year:
-Geno Smith was pretty much a rock all season long
-Guys like Fields and Lawrence were possibly available in leagues after being dropped by impatient drafters
-Goff offered a lot of quality starts
- Daniel Jones was rolling the second half the year

 

[Scoresman]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

good stuff. any chance 2021 passing TDs were an outlier to the upside or is this a regression from recent seasons as well?

I took the average of the last three seasons. The 2020 COVID season saw some peaks but nothing super crazy. TDs this year were definitely the lowest in recent memory.

Footballoutsiders had an article about this. It's from October, but I think the same concepts applied to the whole season. This year seems to be on par with the least productive offenses of recent memory from 1988 and 2017.

The NFL's Scoring Drought: Worrisome, or a Passing Issue?

Scoring is down around the NFL, and it's the passing game to blame! But is 2022 really something historic, or just the latest down year in a cyclical league?

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[Scoresman]

Could there be something with coverages or defensive schemes changing in the red zone or something? I could see something like that affecting passing TD rates.

If it was simply a talent issue, wouldn't passing yards see the same dropoff?

 

[Ilov80s]

Could there be something with coverages or defensive schemes changing in the red zone or something? I could see something like that affecting passing TD rates.

If it was simply a talent issue, wouldn't passing yards see the same dropoff?

Or maybe teams figuring out how to run the ball more efficiently near the GL?

 

[zamboni]

Good article - I agree with virtually all of the takes there, with the possible exception of "The waiver wire will always be there for us at quarterback".

We're seeing a perhaps the biggest bifurcation in recent memory at QB, with so many of the old guard (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, etc.) either hanging it up or falling off in production - along with so many new, unproven QB situations. Thus as of now, there is a widening gap between the top tier and the bulk of the pack. Perhaps that gap will narrow a bit over the season as some of the next tier guys take a big leap forward, but as we head into our drafts, it seems uncomfortable to wait too long on QB - particularly in superflex/2QB leagues - and figure you can just find someone decent out there on the waiver wire.

It really depends on league depth and the behavior of your league mates. but there were some really good WW QBs this year:
-Geno Smith was pretty much a rock all season long
-Guys like Fields and Lawrence were possibly available in leagues after being dropped by impatient drafters
-Goff offered a lot of quality starts
- Daniel Jones was rolling the second half the year

For sure there were some viable options out there, but seemingly a much smaller number than in previous years - particularly in 2QB/superflex.

 

[Ilov80s]

For sure there were some viable options out there, but seemingly a much smaller number than in previous years - particularly in 2QB/superflex.

2 QB and SF is a whole different beast

 

[TwinTurbo]

Could there be something with coverages or defensive schemes changing in the red zone or something? I could see something like that affecting passing TD rates.

If it was simply a talent issue, wouldn't passing yards see the same dropoff?

There were a lot of injuries to top WR too along with declining performance by older elite QBs. Teams like the Rams finished with guys like Van Jefferson as their #1 WR. And some anomalies like the Chiefs where Mahommes threw over 40 TDs but only 9 went to his top 3 WR. McKinnon caught 9 TDs on his own.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Good article - I agree with virtually all of the takes there, with the possible exception of "The waiver wire will always be there for us at quarterback".

We're seeing a perhaps the biggest bifurcation in recent memory at QB, with so many of the old guard (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, etc.) either hanging it up or falling off in production - along with so many new, unproven QB situations. Thus as of now, there is a widening gap between the top tier and the bulk of the pack. Perhaps that gap will narrow a bit over the season as some of the next tier guys take a big leap forward, but as we head into our drafts, it seems uncomfortable to wait too long on QB - particularly in superflex/2QB leagues - and figure you can just find someone decent out there on the waiver wire.

It really depends on league depth and the behavior of your league mates. but there were some really good WW QBs this year:
-Geno Smith was pretty much a rock all season long
-Guys like Fields and Lawrence were possibly available in leagues after being dropped by impatient drafters
-Goff offered a lot of quality starts
- Daniel Jones was rolling the second half the year

In my 16-team dynasty league Geno was a preseason FA. I bid 61% ($610/$1000) thinking that was over the top. The prior year he was a FA and went for $120

I was outbid by $190 ($800, for those of you mathing at home) for a whopping 80% of FAAB. The highest bid in the history of that league. The previous high was…Geno Smith for $120 the year before.

Even in my 1QB redraft, the Fields owner dropped him in week 6. I was desperate as a Russ Wilson owner, and Fields rewarded me with an unbelievable stretch run resulting in an LCG loss. I claimed him in a MFFL league as well. The 1st quarter of week 17 he had 100+ RuYd, and my opponent texted me congrats for winning it all. He finished with less than he had in the 1st Q, but hey, it was a great ride.

In my 12-team dynasty, there wasn’t a QB available all year save for Brett Rypian & Bailey Zappe, both of whom I acquired on my quest to go 0-14.

There most definitely wasn’t a bevy of FA QB available.

So yeah - I agree. My redraft take-away is that I might well be taking a QB earlier in 2023. Not Mahomes/Hurts/Burrow/Allen early, but certainly not 11th - 12th off the board as I’ve done for years. Maybe I reach a little for TLaw. I’d be ok with that. Maybe LJax falls a little - I’ll take that discount.

Something to be said about set it & forget it points at QB, especially in light of the downturn in QB scoring & shrinking of inventory.

Now, all that said, it’s possible that guys like Stroud, Young, and maybe Love will infuse the position with a little life. Maybe Zappe gets another shot & wildly outplays Mac Jones. I could see Ryan Tannehill bouncing back for a decent season. I’m slightly less optimistic about Carr, and drafting Danny Dimes as my only starter carries its own risks. I know what his 2022 stats show, but I also know what I saw on the field. I’m not hating, merely observing that “regression” is on the range of possible Daniel Jones outcomes.

There’s definitely a very short list of reliable QBs. It makes it extremely challenging to trade for one in a SF format. And if you’re looking for youth, that list of possible targets is a lot shorter. I’m going through it right now and it’s ugly.

The halcyon days oF QB free fall may be over for a while.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For sure there were some viable options out there, but seemingly a much smaller number than in previous years - particularly in 2QB/superflex.

2 QB and SF is a whole different beast

This is why I’m glad one of my SF leagues is a performance IDP. A LB or DL stepping up big can outscore most team’s QB2s any given Sunday.

Still, it’s nice to have a 2nd QB to roll out.

2 QB is a different beast altogether. Tough times for a lot of teams in those formats.

 

[amnesiac]

Good article - I agree with virtually all of the takes there, with the possible exception of "The waiver wire will always be there for us at quarterback".

We're seeing a perhaps the biggest bifurcation in recent memory at QB, with so many of the old guard (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, etc.) either hanging it up or falling off in production - along with so many new, unproven QB situations. Thus as of now, there is a widening gap between the top tier and the bulk of the pack. Perhaps that gap will narrow a bit over the season as some of the next tier guys take a big leap forward, but as we head into our drafts, it seems uncomfortable to wait too long on QB - particularly in superflex/2QB leagues - and figure you can just find someone decent out there on the waiver wire.

I took Rodgers in round 7 or 8 I think. 12th QB off the board, I was excited and thought I would be in contention for sure.

I will be grabbing a top 5 QB next year.

 

[Tanner9919]

nfl teams need to stop drafting ohio state QBs. plain and simple. some jackwagon team is going to take Cj stroud within the first 4 picks. the laughter will be heard from the plains to the mtns of colorado.

you dont need that flash in the pan hot shot rookie QB, you need that blue chip o-lineman that can level a house.

 

[Joe Bryant]

nfl teams need to stop drafting ohio state QBs. plain and simple. some jackwagon team is going to take Cj stroud within the first 4 picks. the laughter will be heard from the plains to the mtns of colorado.

you dont need that flash in the pan hot shot rookie QB, you need that blue chip o-lineman that can level a house.

I'm pretty sure you're joking but if you're not, can you elaborate on why an Ohio State QB wouldn't succeed? Are there other schools on the list?

Does it work the opposite way for you? For some QBs do you give them a positive boost if they went to a certain school? If so, which ones?

 

[BassNBrew]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

TDs are fluky.

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

How did rushing TDs do? Was there any rise to compensate or was overall scoring just down? Lots of QB sneaks/pushes to go with just handing off at the goal line? Or maybe not?

Scoring was down everywhere overall. Rushing TDs down 6%, but Attempts up by 4% and yards up 6%.

I don't know why TDs are down across the board like this. I know TDs are fluky, but there's a clear trend here for this year.

What he said.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

nfl teams need to stop drafting ohio state QBs. plain and simple. some jackwagon team is going to take Cj stroud within the first 4 picks. the laughter will be heard from the plains to the mtns of colorado.

This is intended as humor, no?

 

[BassNBrew]

Good article - I agree with virtually all of the takes there, with the possible exception of "The waiver wire will always be there for us at quarterback".

We're seeing a perhaps the biggest bifurcation in recent memory at QB, with so many of the old guard (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, etc.) either hanging it up or falling off in production - along with so many new, unproven QB situations. Thus as of now, there is a widening gap between the top tier and the bulk of the pack. Perhaps that gap will narrow a bit over the season as some of the next tier guys take a big leap forward, but as we head into our drafts, it seems uncomfortable to wait too long on QB - particularly in superflex/2QB leagues - and figure you can just find someone decent out there on the waiver wire.

It really depends on league depth and the behavior of your league mates. but there were some really good WW QBs this year:
-Geno Smith was pretty much a rock all season long
-Guys like Fields and Lawrence were possibly available in leagues after being dropped by impatient drafters
-Goff offered a lot of quality starts
- Daniel Jones was rolling the second half the year

In my 16-team dynasty league Geno was a preseason FA. I bid 61% ($610/$1000) thinking that was over the top. The prior year he was a FA and went for $120

I was outbid by $190 ($800, for those of you mathing at home) for a whopping 80% of FAAB. The highest bid in the history of that league. The previous high was…Geno Smith for $120 the year before.

Even in my 1QB redraft, the Fields owner dropped him in week 6. I was desperate as a Russ Wilson owner, and Fields rewarded me with an unbelievable stretch run resulting in an LCG loss. I claimed him in a MFFL league as well. The 1st quarter of week 17 he had 100+ RuYd, and my opponent texted me congrats for winning it all. He finished with less than he had in the 1st Q, but hey, it was a great ride.

In my 12-team dynasty, there wasn’t a QB available all year save for Brett Rypian & Bailey Zappe, both of whom I acquired on my quest to go 0-14.

There most definitely wasn’t a bevy of FA QB available.

So yeah - I agree. My redraft take-away is that I might well be taking a QB earlier in 2023. Not Mahomes/Hurts/Burrow/Allen early, but certainly not 11th - 12th off the board as I’ve done for years. Maybe I reach a little for TLaw. I’d be ok with that. Maybe LJax falls a little - I’ll take that discount.

Something to be said about set it & forget it points at QB, especially in light of the downturn in QB scoring & shrinking of inventory.

Now, all that said, it’s possible that guys like Stroud, Young, and maybe Love will infuse the position with a little life. Maybe Zappe gets another shot & wildly outplays Mac Jones. I could see Ryan Tannehill bouncing back for a decent season. I’m slightly less optimistic about Carr, and drafting Danny Dimes as my only starter carries its own risks. I know what his 2022 stats show, but I also know what I saw on the field. I’m not hating, merely observing that “regression” is on the range of possible Daniel Jones outcomes.

There’s definitely a very short list of reliable QBs. It makes it extremely challenging to trade for one in a SF format. And if you’re looking for youth, that list of possible targets is a lot shorter. I’m going through it right now and it’s ugly.

The halcyon days oF QB free fall may be over for a while.

Herbert
Lawrence
Fields
Ljax
Watson
Dak
Cousins
_________________

Jones/Geno/Goff

There will be some excellent value in the 9-11 range.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Good article - I agree with virtually all of the takes there, with the possible exception of "The waiver wire will always be there for us at quarterback".

We're seeing a perhaps the biggest bifurcation in recent memory at QB, with so many of the old guard (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, etc.) either hanging it up or falling off in production - along with so many new, unproven QB situations. Thus as of now, there is a widening gap between the top tier and the bulk of the pack. Perhaps that gap will narrow a bit over the season as some of the next tier guys take a big leap forward, but as we head into our drafts, it seems uncomfortable to wait too long on QB - particularly in superflex/2QB leagues - and figure you can just find someone decent out there on the waiver wire.

It really depends on league depth and the behavior of your league mates. but there were some really good WW QBs this year:
-Geno Smith was pretty much a rock all season long
-Guys like Fields and Lawrence were possibly available in leagues after being dropped by impatient drafters
-Goff offered a lot of quality starts
- Daniel Jones was rolling the second half the year

In my 16-team dynasty league Geno was a preseason FA. I bid 61% ($610/$1000) thinking that was over the top. The prior year he was a FA and went for $120

I was outbid by $190 ($800, for those of you mathing at home) for a whopping 80% of FAAB. The highest bid in the history of that league. The previous high was…Geno Smith for $120 the year before.

Even in my 1QB redraft, the Fields owner dropped him in week 6. I was desperate as a Russ Wilson owner, and Fields rewarded me with an unbelievable stretch run resulting in an LCG loss. I claimed him in a MFFL league as well. The 1st quarter of week 17 he had 100+ RuYd, and my opponent texted me congrats for winning it all. He finished with less than he had in the 1st Q, but hey, it was a great ride.

In my 12-team dynasty, there wasn’t a QB available all year save for Brett Rypian & Bailey Zappe, both of whom I acquired on my quest to go 0-14.

There most definitely wasn’t a bevy of FA QB available.

So yeah - I agree. My redraft take-away is that I might well be taking a QB earlier in 2023. Not Mahomes/Hurts/Burrow/Allen early, but certainly not 11th - 12th off the board as I’ve done for years. Maybe I reach a little for TLaw. I’d be ok with that. Maybe LJax falls a little - I’ll take that discount.

Something to be said about set it & forget it points at QB, especially in light of the downturn in QB scoring & shrinking of inventory.

Now, all that said, it’s possible that guys like Stroud, Young, and maybe Love will infuse the position with a little life. Maybe Zappe gets another shot & wildly outplays Mac Jones. I could see Ryan Tannehill bouncing back for a decent season. I’m slightly less optimistic about Carr, and drafting Danny Dimes as my only starter carries its own risks. I know what his 2022 stats show, but I also know what I saw on the field. I’m not hating, merely observing that “regression” is on the range of possible Daniel Jones outcomes.

There’s definitely a very short list of reliable QBs. It makes it extremely challenging to trade for one in a SF format. And if you’re looking for youth, that list of possible targets is a lot shorter. I’m going through it right now and it’s ugly.

The halcyon days oF QB free fall may be over for a while.

Herbert
Lawrence
Fields
Ljax
Watson
Dak
Cousins
_________________

Jones/Geno/Goff

There will be some excellent value in the 9-11 range.

Yeah, agreed that list is chock full of my QB1 targets for 2023 redraft

only question is ADP.

ETA, I’m out on creepy Watson, and I’d rather not have Cousins, Geno, or DJ. Personal preference.

 

[BassNBrew]

Bloom must be Wilson's agent. Had him as a weekly QB1 most of this year on his show and sees him as a huge value this year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Bloom must be Wilson's agent. Had him as a weekly QB1 most of this year on his show and sees him as a huge value this year.

I’m stuck with him, so if any player can have a redemption arc, I’m rooting for it to be Wilson.

I’m hoping to see a lifetime movie called “from sucks to big bucks, the Zach Wilson story”

He’ll be such a bad mofo by then he’ll play himself.

 

[BassNBrew]

Good article - I agree with virtually all of the takes there, with the possible exception of "The waiver wire will always be there for us at quarterback".

We're seeing a perhaps the biggest bifurcation in recent memory at QB, with so many of the old guard (Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, etc.) either hanging it up or falling off in production - along with so many new, unproven QB situations. Thus as of now, there is a widening gap between the top tier and the bulk of the pack. Perhaps that gap will narrow a bit over the season as some of the next tier guys take a big leap forward, but as we head into our drafts, it seems uncomfortable to wait too long on QB - particularly in superflex/2QB leagues - and figure you can just find someone decent out there on the waiver wire.

It really depends on league depth and the behavior of your league mates. but there were some really good WW QBs this year:
-Geno Smith was pretty much a rock all season long
-Guys like Fields and Lawrence were possibly available in leagues after being dropped by impatient drafters
-Goff offered a lot of quality starts
- Daniel Jones was rolling the second half the year

In my 16-team dynasty league Geno was a preseason FA. I bid 61% ($610/$1000) thinking that was over the top. The prior year he was a FA and went for $120

I was outbid by $190 ($800, for those of you mathing at home) for a whopping 80% of FAAB. The highest bid in the history of that league. The previous high was…Geno Smith for $120 the year before.

Even in my 1QB redraft, the Fields owner dropped him in week 6. I was desperate as a Russ Wilson owner, and Fields rewarded me with an unbelievable stretch run resulting in an LCG loss. I claimed him in a MFFL league as well. The 1st quarter of week 17 he had 100+ RuYd, and my opponent texted me congrats for winning it all. He finished with less than he had in the 1st Q, but hey, it was a great ride.

In my 12-team dynasty, there wasn’t a QB available all year save for Brett Rypian & Bailey Zappe, both of whom I acquired on my quest to go 0-14.

There most definitely wasn’t a bevy of FA QB available.

So yeah - I agree. My redraft take-away is that I might well be taking a QB earlier in 2023. Not Mahomes/Hurts/Burrow/Allen early, but certainly not 11th - 12th off the board as I’ve done for years. Maybe I reach a little for TLaw. I’d be ok with that. Maybe LJax falls a little - I’ll take that discount.

Something to be said about set it & forget it points at QB, especially in light of the downturn in QB scoring & shrinking of inventory.

Now, all that said, it’s possible that guys like Stroud, Young, and maybe Love will infuse the position with a little life. Maybe Zappe gets another shot & wildly outplays Mac Jones. I could see Ryan Tannehill bouncing back for a decent season. I’m slightly less optimistic about Carr, and drafting Danny Dimes as my only starter carries its own risks. I know what his 2022 stats show, but I also know what I saw on the field. I’m not hating, merely observing that “regression” is on the range of possible Daniel Jones outcomes.

There’s definitely a very short list of reliable QBs. It makes it extremely challenging to trade for one in a SF format. And if you’re looking for youth, that list of possible targets is a lot shorter. I’m going through it right now and it’s ugly.

The halcyon days oF QB free fall may be over for a while.

Herbert
Lawrence
Fields
Ljax
Watson
Dak
Cousins
_________________

Jones/Geno/Goff

There will be some excellent value in the 9-11 range.

Yeah, agreed that list is chock full of my QB1 targets for 2023 redraft

only question is ADP.

I think you'll see them fall to the 9th-10th. Guys investing a second (or third) in the top 4 aren't going to double up when they are in a huge hole at RB/WR.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think you'll see them fall to the 9th-10th. Guys investing a second (or third) in the top 4 aren't going to double up when they are in a huge hole at RB/WR.

Only exception is LJax. I have a feeling he’ll be a 5th-6th rounder in my league. Upside is too great.

 

[BassNBrew]

Here were the top 14 in the typical playoff weeks with 4 pt pass TDs.

1. Mahomes
2. Brady
3. Cousins
(CeeDee Lamb slots in here...was a 2nd rounder last year)
4. Dak
5. Jones
6. Goff
7. Allen
8. Darnold
9. Lawrence
10. Purdy
11. Fields
12. Burrow
13. Watson
14. Geno

Bold were on the wire during the season. Want a top half QB1 for the playoffs...last year it was Patrick or wait to draft a QB.

 

[BassNBrew]

I think you'll see them fall to the 9th-10th. Guys investing a second (or third) in the top 4 aren't going to double up when they are in a huge hole at RB/WR.

Only exception is LJax. I have a feeling he’ll be a 5th-6th rounder in my league. Upside is too great.

I might be inclined to spend that capital. He has potential to match any of the top guys.

 

[rockaction]

I’m hoping to see a lifetime movie called “from sucks to big bucks, the Zach Wilson story”

I think BassNBrew was referring to Russell Wilson, not Zach. Bloom has never been in on Zach. Not even when he was drafted.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Here were the top 14 in the typical playoff weeks with 4 pt pass TDs.

1. Mahomes
2. Brady
3. Cousins
(CeeDee Lamb slots in here...was a 2nd rounder last year)
4. Dak
5. Jones
6. Goff
7. Allen
8. Darnold
9. Lawrence
10. Purdy
11. Fields
12. Burrow
13. Watson
14. Geno

Bold were on the wire during the season. Want a top half QB1 for the playoffs...last year it was Patrick or wait to draft a QB.

Watson & Goff were drafted in my league & not on the wire.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m hoping to see a lifetime movie called “from sucks to big bucks, the Zach Wilson story”

I think BassNBrew was referring to Russell Wilson, not Zach. Bloom has never been in on Zach. Not even when he was drafted.

You’re probably correct, but my post was funny so imma leave it.

 

[Ilov80s]

Yeah, agreed that list is chock full of my QB1 targets for 2023 redraft

only question is ADP.

ETA, I’m out on creepy Watson , and I’d rather not have Cousins, Geno, or DJ. Personal preference.

Early Best Ball ADP points to a major increase in QB thirst. Now ofcourse BestBall is different than single QB redraft but it's the best info we have now. Here are the QBs mentioned as targets and the round they are going in now for 12 team:


Herbert- 3rd
Lawrence- 4th
Fields- 4th
Ljax- 4th
Watson- 6th
Dak- 5th
Cousins- 7th

To show the spread, Herbert is QB5 and QB12 is Cousins

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yeah, agreed that list is chock full of my QB1 targets for 2023 redraft

only question is ADP.

ETA, I’m out on creepy Watson , and I’d rather not have Cousins, Geno, or DJ. Personal preference.

Early Best Ball ADP points to a major increase in QB thirst. Now ofcourse BestBall is different than single QB redraft but it's the best info we have now. Here are the QBs mentioned as targets and the round they are going in now for 12 team:


Herbert- 3rd
Lawrence- 4th
Fields- 4th
Ljax- 4th
Watson- 6th
Dak- 5th
Cousins- 7th

To show the spread, Herbert is QB5 and QB12 is Cousins

Yeah, I’d be comfortable with LJax in the 4th.

I spent a 4th on Sutton last year and still made the LCG, so…

 

[Scoresman]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

TDs are fluky.

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

How did rushing TDs do? Was there any rise to compensate or was overall scoring just down? Lots of QB sneaks/pushes to go with just handing off at the goal line? Or maybe not?

Scoring was down everywhere overall. Rushing TDs down 6%, but Attempts up by 4% and yards up 6%.

I don't know why TDs are down across the board like this. I know TDs are fluky, but there's a clear trend here for this year.

What he said.

They're fluky, yes, but when you look at every game that every team plays in a season, and you see a trend, that's starting to be enough of a sample size to look at it a little more.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

TDs are fluky.

Taking a higher level look, passing touchdowns were way down in 2022. About 100 TDs fewer than previous years. Probably need to ask why. If this isn't a fluke, it needs to be baked into projections next year. Former studs who didn't pan out like Russell Wilson, Stafford, Murray, Rodgers, Lamar, all underperformed projections. The usual studs generally reached their pre-season projections, but few if any really exceeded them.

Passing attempts remained fairly steady, so that doesn't answer it.

Some specific numbers here. Passing TDs were down 13% compared to previous year averages. 20 teams had double digit percent decreases, 10 of these teams at least a 20% reduction. There's a lot of mediocre QB play out there. This supports maybe grabbing proven talent earlier than usual next year.

In comparison, passing attempts were only down 1.6% and passing yards were down only 4%.

How did rushing TDs do? Was there any rise to compensate or was overall scoring just down? Lots of QB sneaks/pushes to go with just handing off at the goal line? Or maybe not?

Scoring was down everywhere overall. Rushing TDs down 6%, but Attempts up by 4% and yards up 6%.

I don't know why TDs are down across the board like this. I know TDs are fluky, but there's a clear trend here for this year.

What he said.

They're fluky, yes, but when you look at every game that every team plays in a season, and you see a trend, that's starting to be enough of a sample size to look at it a little more.

Just 1 season though. Regardless of the games played, your sample size is 1.

There’s a lot in flux, including incoming & ascending talent at the QB position.

Some teams had injuries to their receiving weapons - the chargers for example. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them bounce back in passing TDs in a big way with a good draft. AZ lost Murray to an ACL, Brady regressed, the Jets couldn’t find an answer, and other teams had injuries at the QB or offensive skill positions.

It’s too early to know if this is a fluke or a trend. 2023-2024 will tell the tale.

 

[Ilov80s]

Yeah, I’d be comfortable with LJax in the 4th.

I spent a 4th on Sutton last year and still made the LCG, so…

This year, I once again employed the wait on QB strategy and it paid off (Cousins, Fields, Lawrence being my big hits across my leagues). In my 3 single QB redraft leagues, I had great seasons. Was a 1st, 2nd and 3rd seed (now I got upset in every playoff game but that's just bad luck). At no point was QB a real weakness. This might end up burning me next year but no way I am taking a QB in the 4th round or 5th round.

Way too early, but I am looking at Rodgers or Carr depending on their landing spots. Tua, Geno Smith, Goff, Daniel Jones. It might burn me this year and totally blow up in my face but I am willing to take the risk drafting 2 of them and then being aggressive on the WW.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This year, I once again employed the wait on QB strategy and it paid off (Cousins, Fields, Lawrence being my big hits across my leagues). In my 3 single QB redraft leagues, I had great seasons. Was a 1st, 2nd and 3rd seed (now I got upset in every playoff game but that's just bad luck). At no point was QB a real weakness. This might end up burning me next year but no way I am taking a QB in the 4th round or 5th round.

Yeah, you right. This is February me talking. August me is very unlikely to take LJax in the 4th. The 5th would be tempting.

Results-wise, same here - In redraft I drafted Russ (he was a 15-20 PPG guy, so not as awful as he was in RL) was able to trade for Brady ( ) and managed to pick up Fields off the wire pickle: ) who carried me.

I was also upset in the playoffs but it was not due to QB play. My roster scored 1 offensive TD & recorded zero sacks & zero Ints in week 17.

That said, it was a stressful nightmare.

If I can find a QB I like in the 5th more than I want to, I’ll grab him. Otherwise I’ll probably do what I did last year - maybe a round earlier.

 

[amnesiac]

nfl teams need to stop drafting ohio state QBs. plain and simple. some jackwagon team is going to take Cj stroud within the first 4 picks. the laughter will be heard from the plains to the mtns of colorado.

This is intended as humor, no?

went to OSU during the 90s.

these are the OSU QBs that played in the NFL since i was in college:

YEAR

NAME

ROUND

RECORD

CAREER STATISTICS

1996	Bobby Hoying	3	3-9-1	2,544 yards, 11 TDs, 15 INTs
1999	Joe Germaine	4	0-0	136 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
2004	Craig Krenzel	5	3-2	718 yards, 3 TDs, 6 INTs
2007	Troy Smith	5	4-4	1,734 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs
2011	Terrelle Pryor**	3	3-7	1,994 yards, 9 TDs, 12 INTs
2016	Cardale Jones	4	0-0	96 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
2019	Dwayne Haskins	1	3-10	2,804 yards, 12 TDs, 14 INTs

Then we have Justin Fields:

Year	Team	CMP%	YDS	TD	INT	Rating
2022	Bears	60.4	2,242	17	11	85.2
2021	Bears	58.9	1,870	7	10	73.2

far and away the best NFL OSU QB in that time span. (edit to add 5-20 record, maybe just the most opportunity/stats?)

take your own impressions away from those numbers, but i think you can make a solid case for "don't draft an OSU QB."

OSU is good at getting college production out of their QB position, but you can make a solid argument it doesn't translate to the NFL.

All that being said: I would not take CJ Stroud off my draft board simply because he played at OSU.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

All that being said: I would not take CJ Stroud off my draft board simply because he played at OSU.

All OSU QBs have failed so all OSU QBs will fail.

I believe this is a logical fallacy.

No offense, but I put as much into helmet scouting as I do in astrology, or reading chicken bones. Stroud isn’t those other players, he’s Stroud. He still put up monster numbers with a depleted WR room, and showed off his wheels at the Peach Bowl as a grand finale. He has the arm, the head and the build to be a quality NFL starter.

I really don’t care where he went to school other than as an indicator of the level of competition he faced.

 

[Ilov80s]

I don't see the connection between Stroud and QBs who played decades ago under different coaches with different schemes. I remember when Rodgers was coming out, the narrative was Jeff Tedford QBs are system guys and can't play in the NFL. Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Kyle Boller, Trent Dilfer and David Carr were a who's who of QB busts in the 90s/00s. It may very well be that connection which caused Aaron to fall so far in the draft.

 

[BassNBrew]

Yeah, agreed that list is chock full of my QB1 targets for 2023 redraft

only question is ADP.

ETA, I’m out on creepy Watson , and I’d rather not have Cousins, Geno, or DJ. Personal preference.

Early Best Ball ADP points to a major increase in QB thirst. Now ofcourse BestBall is different than single QB redraft but it's the best info we have now. Here are the QBs mentioned as targets and the round they are going in now for 12 team:


Herbert- 3rd
Lawrence- 4th
Fields- 4th
Ljax- 4th
Watson- 6th
Dak- 5th
Cousins- 7th

To show the spread, Herbert is QB5 and QB12 is Cousins

Those always ends up sliding back. The pool of known commodities is small but will clear up as we progress thru fa, the draft, then camp. Last year guys going in the 3 and 4 in my February drafts ended up going two rounds later in the summer.

 

[Ilov80s]

Those always ends up sliding back. The pool of known commodities is small but will clear up as we progress thru fa, the draft, then camp. Last year guys going in the 3 and 4 in my February drafts ended up going two rounds later in the summer.

You are probably right but the momentum has been building among experts to make QB a higher and higher priority.

 

[BassNBrew]

Those always ends up sliding back. The pool of known commodities is small but will clear up as we progress thru fa, the draft, then camp. Last year guys going in the 3 and 4 in my February drafts ended up going two rounds later in the summer.

You are probably right but the momentum has been building among experts to make QB a higher and higher priority.

Once the cards are dealt, said experts will want to demonstrate how smart they are and will start touting why their sleeper is such a great option you can wait on QB.

Interestingly enough the article is about "What We Learned" and the author's conclusion is, "There is no right answer here".

Apparently we learned nothing but felt the need to write content. I love message board topics like this or FBG roundtables but I absolutely despise it when a single author article wanders around and offers little in the way of a conclusion.

It’s getting harder to keep up if you don’t have an elite quarterback​

In 2020, the gap between QB1 (among quarterbacks that played more than five games) and QB12 was about eight points per game, with five other quarterbacks within a point per game of QB12. The gap between QB1 and QB5 was two points. The gap between QB1 and QB10 was 4.5 points. In 2021, the gap between QB1 and QB12 was a mere 5.7 points, which was actually the smallest of any position!

I really wish the author had dug into this (bolded) more. It totally contradicts the headline. I wish the author had analyzed the cost of paying up for a QB.