2025 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Last year, the first three cut lines were 122.50, 120.55, and 118.75

This year, 126.75, 127.15, and ???

The Week 2 cut was surprisingly high to me, as many of the most highly-owned players did poorly

Week two was one of the highest scoring weeks in the NFL.

It appears to be somewhat in line with total number of points scored, but not directly. Here is a table showing points scored and cut line for the last 4 years in weeks 1-3. Two of the three highest scoring weeks have the highest cut lines in this small sample, but Week 1 of 2024 is an outlier, with 743 points scored and a low cut line of 122.5.
The right side of the table shows the point total divided by the cut line:

	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3
2025 Cut Line NFL Points Scored	126.75 661	127.25 760	??	5.21	5.97
2024 Cut Line NLF Points Scored	122.5 743	120.55 634	118.75 664	6.07	5.26	5.59
2023 Cut Line NLF Points Scored	122.25 626	134.55 796	125.0 706	5.12	5.92	5.65
2022 Cut Line NLF Points Scored	125.05 673	119.1 697	133.05 649	5.38	5.85	4.88

I think the cut line is more of an indication of the skill level of the participants in picking good scoring players, combined with those higher scoring totals.

Thoughts??

throw out the two highest and two lowest cutoffs and you have a very tight cutoff range of 121-127 versus a broad scoring range of 626-760. I'm not inclined to draw any conclusions about what the cut line is indicative of....as the cut line versus points curve is basically a horizontal line.

 

[MikesVikes]

I will make a prediction that the cutline will be lower in week three. Unless a majority of entries have only backup QBs on their roster.

 

[Inferno]

Last year, the first three cut lines were 122.50, 120.55, and 118.75

This year, 126.75, 127.15, and ???

The Week 2 cut was surprisingly high to me, as many of the most highly-owned players did poorly

I don't have the data to support this, but could the strong scores from highly owned inexpensive players be contributing to higher cut lines?

I would think that solid showings from Keenan Allen ($5), the $2/$3 WRs, Joey Slye ($3), and ATL D ($3), amongst others, could significantly boost overall rooster scoring. Especially in regard to higher than usual flex/K/D contributions.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Last year, the first three cut lines were 122.50, 120.55, and 118.75

This year, 126.75, 127.15, and ???

The Week 2 cut was surprisingly high to me, as many of the most highly-owned players did poorly

I don't have the data to support this, but could the strong scores from highly owned inexpensive players be contributing to higher cut lines?

I would think that solid showings from Keenan Allen ($5), the $2/$3 WRs, Joey Slye ($3), and ATL D ($3), amongst others, could significantly boost overall rooster scoring. Especially in regard to higher than usual flex/K/D contributions.

throw out the two highest and two lowest cutoffs and you have a very tight cutoff range of 121-127 versus a broad scoring range of 626-760.

there is no spoon.

 

[TheWinz]

403 Jerome Ford owners
320 Dylan Sampson owners
63 Quinshon Judkins owners

 

[scottybo]

403 Jerome Ford owners
320 Dylan Sampson owners
63 Quinshon Judkins owners

Don't know why, but I like the chances for Sampson better than the other 2.

 

[TheWinz]

403 Jerome Ford owners
320 Dylan Sampson owners
63 Quinshon Judkins owners

Don't know why, but I like the chances for Sampson better than the other 2.

After what we saw in Judkins first game, I fully expect this to be Judkins backfield.

 

[Army Eye]

After what we saw in Judkins first game, I fully expect this to be Judkins backfield.

18 out of the 19 team carries, you weren't kidding

 

[a_troll00]

Holy TE explosion Batman!

The black hole on my roster has finally produced. 51 pts from Henry and Hockenson.

Currently at 151.25 with more to come. See you all next week.

 

[-OZ-]

Is there live tracking this year?

Just saw FBG updated from early games. That’s great. 110 + JSN and Javonte - 7 and 8. Might be okay.

 

[Army Eye]

Is there live tracking this year?

yes, see this post

Post in thread '2025 FBG Subscriber Contest'

Thursday at 6:39 PM

Today is the 2025 launch of the Subscriber Scoreboard! (I gave it a name now, just so it has a name other than 'that thing'). If you've used it before, everything will be familiar. If you haven't, then check it out! This is a website I created that offers some extra functionality for people who are playing in the Subscriber Contest.

-expanded overview: see how your players perform over the whole season on one handy page
-live scoring while games are being played!
-continue to follow your team after you are eliminated.
-keep tabs on other peoples' teams as well if you like...

• Army Eye

• 
• 

 

[QuizGuy66]

So after 1pm:

110.70 + (Henry - 7.80/7.80/9.60) + (DJ Moore/K Allen/Franklin/Turpin - 7.80/7.80/13.80/14.50) + (LaPorta - 7.80/7.80/8.30) + (Grupe/Santos - 3.00) + (Saints - 3.0)

A little nervous


-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

After 4pm:

131.40 + (Henry -9.60) + (LaPorta - 8.30)

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Armoatic Cut Line shows 104.80 so I'm almost 27 points to the good. Should be on to week 4...
-QG

 

[Jayrod]

So 133 should be safe?

Cut line was 128 last week.

 

[Saint]

131.55 with Gano -5.9… call me worried

 

[rustycolts]

Now this is more what I'm used to closer to the bottom than the top.

 

[BassNBrew]

So after 1pm:

110.70 + (Henry - 7.80/7.80/9.60) + (DJ Moore/K Allen/Franklin/Turpin - 7.80/7.80/13.80/14.50) + (LaPorta - 7.80/7.80/8.30) + (Grupe/Santos - 3.00) + (Saints - 3.0)

A little nervous


-QG

Neverous about not finishing in the top 100?

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm at 115. Have a few players left. Sweating pretty hard but it may just be the peppers last night evacuating.

 

[davidwb]

159 going into Sunday Night Football -- with Mahomes, Williamson, Loop, and the Ravens D still to go. I should be safe for another week. Unfortunately, I have both Mike Evans and James Connor. Hopefully, Evans hammy is not too serious and he's back in 2-3 weeks. But Connor's injury may be season ending.

 

[(HULK)]

Looks like I'm toast. The combo of Purdy and Kittle being out and me trusting Pacheco as one of my main RBs has definitely led to my exit this early. Oh well, see yah next season!

 

[TheWinz]

Looks like I'm toast. The combo of Purdy and Kittle being out and me trusting Pacheco as one of my main RBs has definitely led to my exit this early. Oh well, see yah next season!

Yeah, you need Pacheco to have a decent 2nd half, and Loop to be kicking lots of FG's tomorrow night.

 

[TheWinz]

As expected, Graham Groino is already injured

 

[QuizGuy66]

As expected, Graham Groino is already injured

Suddenly feeling less bad about screwing up and roostering Santos (who has the same bye as Boswell) instead of Gano because Gano routinely has like 6 byes a season it seems

-QG

 

[TheWinz]

As expected, Graham Groino is already injured

Suddenly feeling less bad about screwing up and roostering Santos (who has the same bye as Boswell) instead of Gano because Gano routinely has like 6 byes a season it seems

-QG

Yeah, after Gano's last 2 seasons, he was a DND for me.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Armoatic Cut Line shows 104.80 so I'm almost 27 points to the good. Should be on to week 4...
-QG

Unofficial cut line moved all the way up to 108.70 after that thrilling slugfest.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Monday Night Counts (live roosters - from analyzer so it includes staff). Basically the average team has about 1.1 players going:

PK T Loop BAL 7 $4 BAL 1977
QB J Goff DET 8 $16 DET 910
RB D Henry BAL 7 $31 BAL 776
WR J Williams DET 8 $20 DET 745
QB L Jackson BAL 7 $27 BAL 679
RB K Mitchell BAL 7 $4 BAL 667
WR D Hopkins BAL 7 $5 BAL 561
DEF Ravens BAL 7 $7 BAL 541
RB J Gibbs DET 8 $37 DET 495
RB D Montgomery DET 8 $18 DET 430
WR Z Flowers BAL 7 $16 BAL 395
TE I Likely BAL 7 $10 BAL 379
PK J Bates DET 8 $7 DET 353
DEF Lions DET 8 $6 DET 304
TE M Andrews BAL 7 $18 BAL 239
WR A St. Brown DET 8 $33 DET 223
WR R Bateman BAL 7 $10 BAL 223
TE S LaPorta DET 8 $23 DET 187
WR T Patrick DET 8 $2 DET 137

So there ya go. Good luck to those sweating The Turk



-QG

 

[TwinTurbo]

As expected, Graham Groino is already injured

You convinced me not to pick him.

 

[Jayrod]

Sam Darnold to Smith-Njigba saved me. They were my 2 high scores in an underwhelming week. After topping 170 in weeks 1 & 2 I'm skating by with 133.8 (do have Loop -7 left).

 

[BassNBrew]

Monday Night Counts (live roosters - from analyzer so it includes staff). Basically the average team has about 1.1 players going:

PK T Loop BAL 7 $4 BAL 1977
QB J Goff DET 8 $16 DET 910
RB D Henry BAL 7 $31 BAL 776
WR J Williams DET 8 $20 DET 745
QB L Jackson BAL 7 $27 BAL 679
RB K Mitchell BAL 7 $4 BAL 667
WR D Hopkins BAL 7 $5 BAL 561
DEF Ravens BAL 7 $7 BAL 541
RB J Gibbs DET 8 $37 DET 495
RB D Montgomery DET 8 $18 DET 430
WR Z Flowers BAL 7 $16 BAL 395
TE I Likely BAL 7 $10 BAL 379
PK J Bates DET 8 $7 DET 353
DEF Lions DET 8 $6 DET 304
TE M Andrews BAL 7 $18 BAL 239
WR A St. Brown DET 8 $33 DET 223
WR R Bateman BAL 7 $10 BAL 223
TE S LaPorta DET 8 $23 DET 187
WR T Patrick DET 8 $2 DET 137

So there ya go. Good luck to those sweating The Turk



-QG

I have the top 4 so my cushion should be sufficient.

I'm astonished that 1977 took Loop. I honestly hadn't heard of him until @TheWinz mentioned him.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Imagine you spent a crisp Benjamin in total on this group of fine players and now imagine you still might advance this week:
P.Mahomes
A.Jeanty
D.London
C.Loveland
Miami Dolphins

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

123.5 + Henry-9.6 + Monty-4.6 + Loop-7.0

guesses on final cut line 108.7 -----> 120?

 

[-OZ-]

Good luck to those sweating The Turk

123.5 + Henry-9.6 + Monty-4.6 + Loop-7.0

guesses on final cut line 108.7 -----> 120?

Could be a high scoring game but it would be tough to get over 123, plus you’ll move a lot with Henry at least.

I’m (presumably) safe at 136 but nobody other than Loop - 11.9 going.

Still haven’t gotten anything from Chase brown and T Henderson. London finally counted but only 0.9 more than Bill (flex) so those 3 have been a waste of money.

So far MVP goes to JSN, egbuka, or Javonte Williams.

 

[Irelad]

Sitting comfy at 164.95 with Goff - 15.95 and Keaton Mitchell - 5.7.

So far, Bijan Robinson, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen are the only players who have counted every week.

I think its a good sign that all but 4 of my 21 players have posted double-digits scores at least once (Braelon Allen, Keaton Mitchell, Calvin Ridley, KC Def), and only 2 haven't contributed to my score yet (Keaton Mitchell and Calvin Ridley). I wasn't quite ready to panic on Ridley because he has been getting lots of targets, but he had multiple drops this week that makes me lose confidence in him.

Chase Brown has been a disappointment, really thought with him and Bijan I'd have a really solid 1-2 punch at RB. Going to be sweating bullets week 5 with 36% of my salary on bye. Need Chase Brown and either Nick Chubb or Braelon Allen to his paydirt to give me 2 usable RB scores. If I make it through week 5, I'll feel much more confident.

 

[fightingillini]

Caleb Williams is carrying me this week. But as I have said earlier, I am dead man walking. My RBs of C Brown, Henderson, Charbonnet, Ford and Croskey Merritt will be my downfall. They have been horrific so far.

 

[reflint]

Dead team walking with my most expensive players being attacked by the injury bug: Burrow, Kittle, and now McLaurin and Evans.

Will likely survive this week but the ranks are getting thin. Sitting at 121 with King Henry -5. If he goes down with a significant injury, I swear it's not my fault!

 

[JoeSteeler]

Caleb Williams is carrying me this week. But as I have said earlier, I am dead man walking. My RBs of C Brown, Henderson, Charbonnet, Ford and Croskey Merritt will be my downfall. They have been horrific so far.

With Stevenson’s 2 fumbles, Henderson may get a lot more opportunity.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Monday Night Counts (live roosters - from analyzer so it includes staff). Basically the average team has about 1.1 players going:

PK T Loop BAL 7 $4 BAL 1977
QB J Goff DET 8 $16 DET 910
RB D Henry BAL 7 $31 BAL 776
WR J Williams DET 8 $20 DET 745
QB L Jackson BAL 7 $27 BAL 679
RB K Mitchell BAL 7 $4 BAL 667
WR D Hopkins BAL 7 $5 BAL 561
DEF Ravens BAL 7 $7 BAL 541
RB J Gibbs DET 8 $37 DET 495
RB D Montgomery DET 8 $18 DET 430
WR Z Flowers BAL 7 $16 BAL 395
TE I Likely BAL 7 $10 BAL 379
PK J Bates DET 8 $7 DET 353
DEF Lions DET 8 $6 DET 304
TE M Andrews BAL 7 $18 BAL 239
WR A St. Brown DET 8 $33 DET 223
WR R Bateman BAL 7 $10 BAL 223
TE S LaPorta DET 8 $23 DET 187
WR T Patrick DET 8 $2 DET 137

So there ya go. Good luck to those sweating The Turk



-QG

I have the top 4 so my cushion should be sufficient.

I'm astonished that 1977 took Loop. I honestly hadn't heard of him until @TheWinz mentioned him.

I should have found an extra kicker dollar for Loop - Ravens kicker has balled out for years and while that goes to the skill of Tucker it also goes to the opportunities given. They spent a pick on Loop. $4 for him with a bye that avoids every other inexpensive kicker? I made room for Boswell at $4 (totally worth it) but I should made room for this guy too. Massive miss tbh. Should be double that ownership.

-QG

 

[Golden Gopher]

QB C.J. Stroud - $14 16.40
QB Geno Smith - $11 32.95
QB Aaron Rodgers - $10 18.05

RB Omarion Hampton - $23 21.90
RB TreVeyon Henderson - $18 6.20
RB Jaylen Warren - $17 10.60
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. - $16 4.60
RB Jordan Mason - $11 23.60
RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt - $6 9.60

WR Courtland Sutton - $19 23.80
WR Rome Odunze - $15 15.20
WR Josh Downs - $12 5.40
WR Ricky Pearsall - $11 19.70
WR Rashod Bateman - $10 0.00
WR Emeka Egbuka - $10 14.50
WR Romeo Doubs - $6 4.50
WR Jaylin Lane - $2 0.80

TE Zach Ertz - $9 8.30
TE Juwan Johnson - $7 14.10
TE Mason Taylor - $7 7.80

PK Graham Gano - $3 3.00
PK Cairo Santos - $3 7.00
PK Blake Grupe - $3 7.00

TD New England Patriots - $4 2.00
TD Las Vegas Raiders - $3 3.00

TOTAL 175.75

So far, so good. Interestingly enough, I just noticed that I have no Ravens or Lions. Tracy getting dinged this week is really my first injury of moderate concern. That said, I'm more concerned that I may have gone a little too "cheap" at QB, PK, and/or defense. Would love to take that $10 spent on Bateman and upgrade a couple of those positions slightly. But, it's a long season. We'll see what happens, I guess.

 

[JaBoo]

So far, so good. Interestingly enough, I just noticed that I have no Ravens or Lions. Tracy getting dinged this week is really my first injury of moderate concern. That said, I'm more concerned that I may have gone a little too "cheap" at QB, PK, and/or defense. Would love to take that $10 spent on Bateman and upgrade a couple of those positions slightly. But, it's a long season. We'll see what happens, I guess.

 

[Golden Gopher]

So far, so good. Interestingly enough, I just noticed that I have no Ravens or Lions. Tracy getting dinged this week is really my first injury of moderate concern. That said, I'm more concerned that I may have gone a little too "cheap" at QB, PK, and/or defense. Would love to take that $10 spent on Bateman and upgrade a couple of those positions slightly. But, it's a long season. We'll see what happens, I guess.

Doh! I should have said "I have no relevant players in tonight's game." Still holding out hope that Bateman gets his eventually, though.

 

[Tha Guru]

120 with Loop -5


Sweating like Patrick Ewing

 

[brun]

Should survive week 3 but I look at my lineup and wonder wtf I was thinking.

 

[Born to Run]

Should survive week 3 but I look at my lineup and wonder wtf I was thinking.

You sound like the 7 kicker guy from years ago.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Should survive week 3 but I look at my lineup and wonder wtf I was thinking.

Same lol

 

[TheWinz]

25% of the kickers offered are either on IR or on their couch

 

[JoeSteeler]

25% of the kickers offered are either on IR or on their couch

Wow

 

[heckmanm]

109.85 + (Goff - 18.05)

 

[BlackCrowes]

25% of the kickers offered are either on IR or on their couch

that's incredible. how many total were offered?

 

[TheWinz]

25% of the kickers offered are either on IR or on their couch

that's incredible. how many total were offered?

Last few years they try to limit it to 32. I currently count 8 that were offered and are either injured or out of a job:
ATL - They offered Koo, Romo is kicking
BUF - They offered Bass, Prater is kicking
CAR - They offered Wright, Fitzgerald is kicking
CLE - They offered Hopkins, Szmyt is kicking
MIA - They offered Sanders, Patterson is kicking
NYG - They offered Gano, I fully expect he will be on IR soon
NYJ - They offered Davis, Folk is kicking
SF - They offered Moody, Pineiro is kicking