Preseason Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Addai's Adidas]

Not just the preseason rankings, but weekly, etc. Are we guilty of "groupthink"?

From Wiki:

Groupthink is a type of thought exhibited by group members who try to minimize conflict and reach consensus without critically testing, analyzing, and evaluating ideas. During Groupthink, members of the group avoid promoting viewpoints outside the comfort zone of consensus thinking. A variety of motives for this may exist such as a desire to avoid being seen as foolish, or a desire to avoid embarrassing or angering other members of the group. Groupthink may cause groups to make hasty, irrational decisions, where individual doubts are set aside, for fear of upsetting the group’s balance. The term is frequently used pejoratively, with hindsight.

It seems any who make a prediction outside of the norm are called crazy with phrases thrown in like "Did you watch ANY Chiefs (for example) games this year?"

Thanks to Yudkin for not succumbing to Groupthink!

 

[Bada Bing]

Most people are guilty of groupthinking. It's the one's that can resist groupthinking that usually win championships. Of course, if you're wrong about a player it could cost you big.

 

[cowpie]

Most people are guilty of groupthinking. It's the one's that can resist groupthinking that usually win championships. Of course, if you're wrong about a player it could cost you big.

I like to see what the group thinks so i know where to draft certain players for VBD. However, i think we all have our players we stay away from and those that we must have. as far as the group think thing, i think that when figuring out draft order, we know where someone in our league will take (say owens) by pick 24. (not that i would,) but someonewill, so as a group we rank owens as the 24th player (or where ever he ranks), but many of us would not take him there.

 

[evilempire]

Most people are guilty of groupthinking. It's the one's that can resist groupthinking that usually win championships. Of course, if you're wrong about a player it could cost you big.

I like to see what the group thinks so i know where to draft certain players for VBD. However, i think we all have our players we stay away from and those that we must have. as far as the group think thing, i think that when figuring out draft order, we know where someone in our league will take (say owens) by pick 24. (not that i would,) but someonewill, so as a group we rank owens as the 24th player (or where ever he ranks), but many of us would not take him there.

I agree with this -- as a baseline for drafts I do like to know what the group is thinking. But when I formulate my rankings I try not to let anyone influence me, and sometimes things look radically different. I've felt all along that Cutler will be the best QB from last year's draft and that Vince Young will struggle. Yes, VY was magic last year with the victories he helped the Titans pull out, but I just don't see a lot of passing ability there. I think Cutler is made for Denver's offense and will pilot them for a long, long time. In a nutshell, it's not necessarily bad to see some groupthink to devise your baseline, but you need to do your own work and not succumb to pressure when it comes time to draft/start players.Free thinkers have been laughed at for years, but are often proven right.

 

[Block]

Not a good example for fantasy football.

We all use the same statistics as the basis for scoring in our leagues. These form the baseline for any evaluation of players and their rankings. So while there should be some difference of opinion (e.g. willie parker vs. clinton portis or marc bulger vs tom brady) there are certain things which should be the same in all rankings. As an example, a guy like Torry Holt should always be ranked ahead of a guy like Plaxico Burress, and someone who has Burress ahead shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

[duaneok66]

Most people are guilty of groupthinking. It's the one's that can resist groupthinking that usually win championships. Of course, if you're wrong about a player it could cost you big.

That's the problem . . .think about it, for me, it's preferred to have a person be strong about their conviction (and possibly be WRONG and later criticized) over having a person lurk amogst the masses and repeat what has been said a million times . . .

I will throw one out there (for example) . . .

CJ is one of the most heralded WRs to ever come out, and he has a GREAT work ethic and is a humble guy . . . why not take him at 1.1 in rookie drafts if you think A.D. will be on the shelf for half his career???

 

[sholditch]

Most people are guilty of groupthinking. It's the one's that can resist groupthinking that usually win championships. Of course, if you're wrong about a player it could cost you big.

That's the problem . . .think about it, for me, it's preferred to have a person be strong about their conviction (and possibly be WRONG and later criticized) over having a person lurk amogst the masses and repeat what has been said a million times . . .

I will throw one out there (for example) . . .

CJ is one of the most heralded WRs to ever come out, and he has a GREAT work ethic and is a humble guy . . . why not take him at 1.1 in rookie drafts if you think A.D. will be on the shelf for half his career???

I am in desperate need of a RB and I am strongly considering taking CJ at 1.1. I think he's the next Jerry Rice.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

:whoosh: Most people are guilty of groupthinking. It's the one's that can resist groupthinking that usually win championships. Of course, if you're wrong about a player it could cost you big.

That's the problem . . .think about it, for me, it's preferred to have a person be strong about their conviction (and possibly be WRONG and later criticized) over having a person lurk amogst the masses and repeat what has been said a million times . . .

I will throw one out there (for example) . . .

CJ is one of the most heralded WRs to ever come out, and he has a GREAT work ethic and is a humble guy . . . why not take him at 1.1 in rookie drafts if you think A.D. will be on the shelf for half his career???

I am in desperate need of a RB and I am strongly considering taking CJ at 1.1. I think he's the next Jerry Rice.

Am I the only one that thinks that if CJ works as hard as Rice did, that he'll be the first CJ? As in, he'll be BETTER than Rice.

 

[Bada Bing]

Most people are guilty of groupthinking. It's the one's that can resist groupthinking that usually win championships. Of course, if you're wrong about a player it could cost you big.

That's the problem . . .think about it, for me, it's preferred to have a person be strong about their conviction (and possibly be WRONG and later criticized) over having a person lurk amogst the masses and repeat what has been said a million times . . .

I will throw one out there (for example) . . .

CJ is one of the most heralded WRs to ever come out, and he has a GREAT work ethic and is a humble guy . . . why not take him at 1.1 in rookie drafts if you think A.D. will be on the shelf for half his career???

Exactly the point I was trying to make.

 

[Captain Hook]

Most people are guilty of groupthinking. It's the one's that can resist groupthinking that usually win championships. Of course, if you're wrong about a player it could cost you big.

That's the problem . . .think about it, for me, it's preferred to have a person be strong about their conviction (and possibly be WRONG and later criticized) over having a person lurk amogst the masses and repeat what has been said a million times . . .

I will throw one out there (for example) . . .

CJ is one of the most heralded WRs to ever come out, and he has a GREAT work ethic and is a humble guy . . . why not take him at 1.1 in rookie drafts if you think A.D. will be on the shelf for half his career???

I am in desperate need of a RB and I am strongly considering taking CJ at 1.1. I think he's the next Jerry Rice.

Am I the only one that thinks that if CJ works as hard as Rice did, that he'll be the first CJ? As in, he'll be BETTER than Rice.

YESor at least I hope so - that is ridiculous. One thing to think he will be good, even Very Good, but someone would have show a lot more than college games to be in the same sentence with Rice.

 

[SSOG]

As an example, a guy like Torry Holt should always be ranked ahead of a guy like Plaxico Burress, and someone who has Burress ahead shouldn't be taken seriously.

Thanks for providing a great example of groupthink.I'm not saying that I have Burress ahead of Holt, or even that I think Buress will finish ahead of Holt, but what if someone believes that, with Tiki leaving town, a huge portion of his catches are going to go to Burress? Or if someone thinks that Holt's injuries are going to linger and slow him down? Holt outscored Burress by 20 points last year, so it's not like it's entirely outside the realm of possibility that Burress could outscore him this year.

I think the message board has a huge case of groupthink, even the ones who don't think so. The natural reaction around here is to automatically discount any projection that seems out of line with the herd, often accompanied with snarky remarks like "are there any openings in your league?". I mean, a contrarian viewpoint will get someone ridiculed mercilously, which is sad, because while those contrarian viewpoints are often wrong (me saying Ron Dayne was going to be the RB1 in Denver last year), they are also very often right (Switz saying that Anquan Boldin was going to be the next Randy Moss as a rookie).

As far as I'm concerned, you can make the most ludicrous assertions you want and I'm not going to dismiss you as long as you are willing to back them up with something.

 

[lions327]

As far as I'm concerned, you can make the most ludicrous assertions you want and I'm not going to dismiss you as long as you are willing to back them up with something.

 

[BroadwayG]

Does it come with punch and pie?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is definitely a major issue that few are averse of. Even knowing of it, I still tend to fall guilty to it at times as well (I couldn't believe how highly MJD was being ranked at first, yet when the 13th pick in one of my drafts came up a few days ago I was strongly considering him there before I realized that wasn't me doing that thinking).

I GUARANTEE that if we all did our rankings blindly without having ever seen anyone else's, and especially without seeing the "consensus" rankings, that they would all be much different than they are.

 

[duaneok66]

This is definitely a major issue that few are averse of. Even knowing of it, I still tend to fall guilty to it at times as well (I couldn't believe how highly MJD was being ranked at first, yet when the 13th pick in one of my drafts came up a few days ago I was strongly considering him there before I realized that wasn't me doing that thinking).

I GUARANTEE that if we all did our rankings blindly without having ever seen anyone else's, and especially without seeing the "consensus" rankings, that they would all be much different than they are.

excellent post . . .

 

[ImTheScientist]

This is definitely a major issue that few are averse of. Even knowing of it, I still tend to fall guilty to it at times as well (I couldn't believe how highly MJD was being ranked at first, yet when the 13th pick in one of my drafts came up a few days ago I was strongly considering him there before I realized that wasn't me doing that thinking).

I GUARANTEE that if we all did our rankings blindly without having ever seen anyone else's, and especially without seeing the "consensus" rankings, that they would all be much different than they are.

 

[David Yudkin]

Thanks to Yudkin for not succumbing to Groupthink!

I find this amusing that I am the one many times that gets singled out for going against the grain when in reality there are other staffers that have players that are often more outliers than my rankings.I certainly don't mind being the one "leading the charge" for going against the grain, but I'm not sure I am the one turning things on their ear.A lot of times I will hear that I ranked someone way off base and only then will I go look at the other staff rankings to see how off I really am (comparitively speaking). That won't get me to chenge my ranking but it will cause me to research why I am looking at things differently vs others. I will also see who the staff member is with a ranking at another extreme and try to see what would have to happen for that to play out that way.For example, I've debated with Wood over MJD's chances of ranking in the Top 5 with Taylor still around (which is where Wood has MJD ranked). Wood still has Taylor getting a fair amount work (he projects him getting the ball 225 times) and IMO it would be extremely tough for Jones-Drew to rank Top 5 with another RB getting 225 touches. I happen to think that Taylor will still get the majority of the touches (not by very much) and IIRC no RB has even ranked in the Top 5 having seen the ball less than a teammate did.I'm all in favor of people ranking people wherever they want and not to get carried away with where they "should" be ranked. However, if you do have someone that goes against the grain, you should be prepared to expalin why you feel that way.

 

[Block]

This is definitely a major issue that few are averse of. Even knowing of it, I still tend to fall guilty to it at times as well (I couldn't believe how highly MJD was being ranked at first, yet when the 13th pick in one of my drafts came up a few days ago I was strongly considering him there before I realized that wasn't me doing that thinking).I GUARANTEE that if we all did our rankings blindly without having ever seen anyone else's, and especially without seeing the "consensus" rankings, that they would all be much different than they are.

I'm not sure about this. We all base our rankings off of the same statistics, right? So, really, rankings should only differ substantially regarding rookies or other players without much experience (which is true already) or with players whose situations have changed dramatically since the previous season (which is true already). There would be a few more differences if there weren't consensus rankings available for us to look at, but assuming we all do our homework I think our rankings would converge almost as much as they do currently.

 

[Tom Servo]

I'm all in favor of people ranking people wherever they want and not to get carried away with where they "should" be ranked. However, if you do have someone that goes against the grain, you should be prepared to expalin why you feel that way.

Further, I would also submit that those who are "going with the flow" provide reasons as well. This would reveal whether they are part of the groupthink or if they have valid analysis that backs up the majority opinion. Those with contrarian opinions should not be alone in justifying their thoughts.My

 

[Couch Potato]

There's another reason that even though we may disagree with a ranking we will still conform fairly closely to groupthink, and it's a valid one.

While it's a chicken-or-egg question as to whether ADP or rankings across the 'net influence the other most, I think each affects the other to some degree. At the individual draft level I know the range in which a player will be drafted based on ADP and various websites' rankings, and if I'm targeting a player I don't want to take him in a round higher than I think I can safely get him. So, unless I'm one of the small fraction compelled to publish my rankings for public consumption, my true feelings about this player never become known in his ADP.

Muhsin Muhammad was fantasy football's #1 WR a few years ago and the big debate that year, soon after Steve Smith's injury, was whether Muhsin s/b ranked as high as #30 -- virtually no one even whispered top 10. But at the end of the year, there he was at #1. If I had known in advance Muhammad would end up as the #1 WR, would I have drafted him in the 2nd round? Of course not. I still would have drafted him later -- probably as WR25 or so -- just early enough to ensure I got him ahead of others who may be high on him.

My example this year is Ron Curry. I happen to believe Curry belongs in Andre Johnson territory this year and should be ranked in the mid teens. I foresee something in the neighborhood of 85-1100-8 and if I'm right he's an absolute steal at the ranking of anywhere from 45 to 60+ that I've seen all offseason. OK, so the crowd (even the smart crowd) thinks I'm wrong, maybe even nuts. But so what? I'm gobbling up Curry wherever I can, but I'm not taking him at WR15, I'm taking him just early enough to ensure getting him. That may be WR40 or so.

So I affect Curry's ADP upward a little bit if I'm drafting some place (MFL) where these things are recorded, but not in the way it would be affected had I drafted him based on my ranking rather than where I could get him. Taking advantage of consensus rankings and ADP means contributing to the ADP groupthink to some degree, drafting near the current ADP rather than burning an earlier pick unnecessarily. Even if many, many people suddenly thought Curry belonged in the teens as I do, his ADP range has been well-established by now, and changes to his ADP number would only take place very slowly.

 

[Couch Potato]

We all base our rankings off of the same statistics, right?

No, not right. Last year's statistics are far less important to me than next year's conditions. That's what I look at closely.But, most people DO give great emphasis to last year's statistics, hence the foundation of groupthink.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

.....I certainly don't mind being the one "leading the charge" for going against the grain, but I'm not sure I am the one turning things on their ear.A lot of times I will hear that I ranked someone way off base and only then will I go look at the other staff rankings to see how off I really am (comparitively speaking). That won't get me to chenge my ranking but it will cause me to research why I am looking at things differently vs others. I will also see who the staff member is with a ranking at another extreme and try to see what would have to happen for that to play out that way......I'm all in favor of people ranking people wherever they want and not to get carried away with where they "should" be ranked. However, if you do have someone that goes against the grain, you should be prepared to expalin why you feel that way.

This seems about right to me about my rankings as well.I've been one of the first to post rankings, and I try to never look at others' rankings until I'm done (if others are loaded at that point). Then I do it to compare if I either (A) made a big mistake (like missing a player) or (B) I have outliers. If I have outliers (and I usually do) I need to be able to defend that position - or rethink it.Some I arduously defend (i.e. high on Chad Johnson this year, low on Philip Rivers) and others I start to reconsider (still high on MB3 and the AZ WRs, but waiting to see TC info). Either way, the rankings get better.Thanks to all for keeping us honest.

 

[BassNBrew]

As far as I'm concerned, you can make the most ludicrous assertions you want and I'm not going to dismiss you as long as you are willing to back them up with something.

Actually you'll either dismiss them or change your rankings thereby starting another round of group think.

 

[BassNBrew]

Muhsin Muhammad was fantasy football's #1 WR a few years ago and the big debate that year, soon after Steve Smith's injury, was whether Muhsin s/b ranked as high as #30 -- virtually no one even whispered top 10. But at the end of the year, there he was at #1. If I had known in advance Muhammad would end up as the #1 WR, would I have drafted him in the 2nd round? Of course not. I still would have drafted him later -- probably as WR25 or so -- just early enough to ensure I got him ahead of others who may be high on him.

Actually Muhammy was a free agent that year and everyone assumed that he'd be gone. His situation lingered for an extended time and his early ADP was set very low. I remember having to remind staff members that he needed to be included in their top 60 WRs that year. Once that die was cast, his ADP while moving higher never recovered from the earlier data points in the population.Booker and Chris Brown kinda of fit that description this year.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

i think there is something to the groupthink thing on a board like this. take larry johnsosn vs tomlinson las year. johnson was the clear favorite here everytime there was a related thread or poll. on another board i visit occasionally, lt was the opposite; more heavily weighted towards tomlinson. i doubt the two boards had much different info; more likely the discussions just evolved differently or the most frequent/influential posters felt differently.

 

[The Duff Man]

It is not only here. Take a look at NFL mock drafts done by the experts. If you compare mocks you will almost always see players grouped within 3-4 spots of each other. Yet every year there are players that slide much further than "projected".

 

[SSOG]

As far as I'm concerned, you can make the most ludicrous assertions you want and I'm not going to dismiss you as long as you are willing to back them up with something.

Actually you'll either dismiss them or change your rankings thereby starting another round of group think.

I can disagree with something without dismissing it.