QB Andy Dalton, CAR (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

Dalton is answer for 2014, but beyond?

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

The Bengals' website hints that new OC Hue Jackson will reduce Andy Dalton's pass attempts and ask him to make easier throws.

Dalton put up big stats in outgoing OC Jay Gruden's more vertical, wide-open offense. Jackson is a balanced-to-run-heavy mind, and Dalton's interception total has increased every season he's been in the league. Observes beat writer Geoff Hobson, "Jackson sounds like he is out of the less is more school and he’s talking like he’s not going to put as much pressure on Dalton to win games with his arm." Expect Dalton to be more of a game manager in 2014.


Source: bengals.com

 

[Danish Bengal]

Bad news for FF owners. For Bengals fans, not so much

 

[Banger]

Rotoworld:

The Bengals' website hints that new OC Hue Jackson will reduce Andy Dalton's pass attempts and ask him to make easier throws.

Dalton put up big stats in outgoing OC Jay Gruden's more vertical, wide-open offense. Jackson is a balanced-to-run-heavy mind, and Dalton's interception total has increased every season he's been in the league. Observes beat writer Geoff Hobson, "Jackson sounds like he is out of the less is more school and he’s talking like he’s not going to put as much pressure on Dalton to win games with his arm." Expect Dalton to be more of a game manager in 2014.

Source: bengals.com

Not surpring to me at all but why work around him if they feel he's not the answer. They have a buch of wr horses and now are they just going to neuter themselves? Do they have the horses to pound the ball?

 

[T with T]

Bad news for FF owners. For Bengals fans, not so much

bad news for Aj Green in a way although he will still get his. That AJG for Calvin is looking good right now.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

New OC Hue Jackson has vowed to help Andy Dalton by placing more emphasis on the run game.
It's perhaps the most obvious schematic change coming this season. The pass-happy Jay Gruden has been replaced by Jackson, who traditionally uses the run game as the "hallmark" of his offenses. Dalton is not going to be in the top-8 in attempts, yards and touchdowns again this season. Fantasy owners simply drafting off last year's stats are going to be disappointed.

Source: ESPN.com

 

[bengalbuck]

Rotoworld:

New OC Hue Jackson has vowed to help Andy Dalton by placing more emphasis on the run game.
It's perhaps the most obvious schematic change coming this season. The pass-happy Jay Gruden has been replaced by Jackson, who traditionally uses the run game as the "hallmark" of his offenses. Dalton is not going to be in the top-8 in attempts, yards and touchdowns again this season. Fantasy owners simply drafting off last year's stats are going to be disappointed.

Source: ESPN.com

While true that they won't be as pass happy as last year, they are still going to pass a lot. A lot of Bengals players and coaches have taken some shots at Jay Gruden's play calling in big games. And I think they want to focus on it more and not get away from it so quickly just because they have a couple rushes go for no gain. But overall? I don't expect major differences in run/pass percentage. Maybe 1 or 2% more runs, but not enough to change things drastically.

Marvin has also walked back the Hue Jackson comments a little bit saying that in today's NFL you have to pass to win. He has had a huge hand in using a lot of recent high picks to bolster the pass offense. Two 1st round pass catching TEs, a pass catching back in Gio ahead of bigger guys like Lacy, AJ at #4 overall in a loaded draft class, etc.

In my opinion, Bengals are still going to throw a lot. The focus will likely be more on running more efficiently than a ton more attempts. BJGE had 220 rushes last year and Gio had around 160. I don't see them having that many more attempts. Maybe 400 for the RBs? But hopefully they will do better than 3.7 YPC or whatever Law Firm and Gio combined for in 2013.

 

[Banger]

Rotoworld:

New OC Hue Jackson has vowed to help Andy Dalton by placing more emphasis on the run game.
It's perhaps the most obvious schematic change coming this season. The pass-happy Jay Gruden has been replaced by Jackson, who traditionally uses the run game as the "hallmark" of his offenses. Dalton is not going to be in the top-8 in attempts, yards and touchdowns again this season. Fantasy owners simply drafting off last year's stats are going to be disappointed.

Source: ESPN.com

Rotoworld:

New OC Hue Jackson has vowed to help Andy Dalton by placing more emphasis on the run game.
It's perhaps the most obvious schematic change coming this season. The pass-happy Jay Gruden has been replaced by Jackson, who traditionally uses the run game as the "hallmark" of his offenses. Dalton is not going to be in the top-8 in attempts, yards and touchdowns again this season. Fantasy owners simply drafting off last year's stats are going to be disappointed.

Source: ESPN.com

While true that they won't be as pass happy as last year, they are still going to pass a lot. A lot of Bengals players and coaches have taken some shots at Jay Gruden's play calling in big games. And I think they want to focus on it more and not get away from it so quickly just because they have a couple rushes go for no gain. But overall? I don't expect major differences in run/pass percentage. Maybe 1 or 2% more runs, but not enough to change things drastically.

Marvin has also walked back the Hue Jackson comments a little bit saying that in today's NFL you have to pass to win. He has had a huge hand in using a lot of recent high picks to bolster the pass offense. Two 1st round pass catching TEs, a pass catching back in Gio ahead of bigger guys like Lacy, AJ at #4 overall in a loaded draft class, etc.

In my opinion, Bengals are still going to throw a lot. The focus will likely be more on running more efficiently than a ton more attempts. BJGE had 220 rushes last year and Gio had around 160. I don't see them having that many more attempts. Maybe 400 for the RBs? But hopefully they will do better than 3.7 YPC or whatever Law Firm and Gio combined for in 2013.

agreed...you don't go out and get a whole bunch of new shiney offensive receiving weapons and you put them on the shelf because your QB is no good. They aren't built to be a grind em down running team....if they focus the offense around BJGE they'll lose and the name of the game is winning games. They won games with Dalton and they won the division, the problem is when the stakes get high and the pressure is on, he's not good. You can try and hide him as much as you want but there are numerous times in playoff runs where your QB needs to make plays and running the ball more isn't going to change that.

 

[Faust]

Hue Jackson says Andy Dalton 'on the cusp of something really good'By Ryan Wilson | CBSSports.com

Andy Dalton has a friend in Hue Jackson, the Bengals' new offensive coordinator who plans on getting the most out of third-year quarterback. Jackson, who replaced Jay Gruden this offseason after Gruden took the Redskins coaching job, has maintained all along that Dalton, despite the skeptics, will continue to improve. And part of that improvement includes a balanced offense, specifically the running game.

"You have to have the threat of running the ball and the threat of being a physical unit in order to last for the duration of the season," Jackson said during an appearance Wednesday on SiriusXM NFL Radio.

A season ago, veteran BenJarvus Green Ellis and rookie Gio Bernard combined for 1,451 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. The Bengals ran the ball 43 percent of the time last season, but that number could approch 50 percent under Jackson, who was known for his commitment to the run when he was with the Raiders.

Ultimately, though, any success the Bengals have will be because Dalton becomes a more consistent passer.

"He's on the cusp of something really good," Jackson said. ... "The key to being a quarterback in the National Football League No. 1 is winning, and he has that trait. No. 2 is being able to win the big games. Obviously, that's the hump that we're trying to get over. The guy has the makeup to do it.

"What I've got to do is just continue to push, prod, pull, motivate, support him and the rest of this offensive unit, and then we've got to pick up the pieces everywhere else to give him a chance to do his job. If we do that, this young man will be right where he needs to be."

Bengals owner Mike Brown said last month that a new contract for Dalton (his rookie deal expires after the 2014 season) would create something of a dilemma for the rest of the roster.

"Do you have a high-priced quarterback and less elsewhere or do you try to have as many guys as you can have and maybe a quarterback that is young and not so highly paid?" Brown asked at the time.

Days later, coach Marvin Lewis offered Dalton his unwavering support, and the hope that a new deal could be worked out soon so everybody could focus on the season.

"Andy's done a fine job for us," Lewis said. "We all want to be better. Once he does that, all of that will go away. He's being compared with Drew Brees, he's being compared with [Aaron] Rodgers, guys who didn't get a chance to play right away. They sat and watched. We threw Andy in right away. He's done a really good job. ...

"We are hopeful we can get a deal done that works and Andy can put it behind him," the coach continued. "He can get back to focusing on football. ... Let's get something that works for everyone and enables us to keep tackles in front of you, receivers on the outside, guys on the other side of the football so it works for everybody."

 

[JetMaxx]

Hue Jackson says Andy Dalton 'on the cusp of something really good'

By Ryan Wilson | CBSSports.com

"Do you have a high-priced quarterback and less elsewhere or do you try to have as many guys as you can have and maybe a quarterback that is young and not so highly paid?" Brown asked at the time.

So the over-involved owner/pseudo GM/check signer says this?? Enter rookie QB in rd 1 or 2 which equals a Dalton goodbye in '15.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I still can't believe how many people are giving up on Dalton so quickly. I started hyping Dalton before he was even drafted and he is exactly on the right path to fantasy stardom. He has increased his yardage, avg, TDs and QB rating in each of his first 3 seasons. Anyone who doubts Dalton because you get caught up in the negative hype, just do a little research on some of the elite QBs in this league right now and you'll see that what Dalton has done in each of his first 3 seasons, is nearly incredible. If there's one thing I'm sure - and I've been saying it for years - it's that Dalton will stack pro-bowls upon pro-bowls.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I still can't believe how many people are giving up on Dalton so quickly. I started hyping Dalton before he was even drafted and he is exactly on the right path to fantasy stardom. He has increased his yardage, avg, TDs and QB rating in each of his first 3 seasons. Anyone who doubts Dalton because you get caught up in the negative hype, just do a little research on some of the elite QBs in this league right now and you'll see that what Dalton has done in each of his first 3 seasons, is nearly incredible. If there's one thing I'm sure - and I've been saying it for years - it's that Dalton will stack pro-bowls upon pro-bowls.

Are you just looking at the stats, or do you watch him play? He's an above average starter. He'll never be elite, and not what I'd generally refer to as "pro bowl" caliber either, although he'll probably go to many as better QB's decline to participate.

 

[bengalbuck]

Hue Jackson says Andy Dalton 'on the cusp of something really good'

By Ryan Wilson | CBSSports.com

"Do you have a high-priced quarterback and less elsewhere or do you try to have as many guys as you can have and maybe a quarterback that is young and not so highly paid?" Brown asked at the time.

So the over-involved owner/pseudo GM/check signer says this?? Enter rookie QB in rd 1 or 2 which equals a Dalton goodbye in '15.

I believe the plan will be a QB in the round 3-4 range. Then if you eventually get a deal done with Dalton, you haven't overpaid too heavily for a backup QB.

If Dalton regresses in 2014, then maybe you have the replacement in house.

Mike Brown's comments are actually very interesting and a great topic for discussion regardless of your feelings on Dalton. In a long series of comments, he gets pretty in-depth and mentions how most of the recent Super Bowl champs have had QBs on rookie contracts (Russ Wilson, Tom Brady and Big Ben back in the day, etc.) or cheaper deals before getting huge money (Brees, Flacco and Rodgers were pretty reasonably paid at the time).

Let's assume for the sake of argument that Dalton is something like the 15th to 20th best QB. What is that worth? He was the 17th QB off the board in the RSP build a franchise draft. But that was good for 30th overall and ahead of Geno Atkins and AJ Green who both went in round 2. Is he really more valuable than those guys? Maybe so even though they are absolutely elite at their position and he is average at his. So you have this conundrum where a guy who is just an average starter at his position is still arguably one of the 32 most valuable players in the league...

There's basically no "middle class" at QB. When QBs get to the end of their rookie deals, they either get $15M+ or they get replaced. There are very, very few guys who fall into the middle category. There isn't a gradual scale where Rodgers gets $22M or whatever and then you work your way gradually down with a few guys making $12M, a handful making $10M, a few making $8M, etc. like you do at every other position. It's just one bucket ("Franchise QB") or the other...

I don't really know the answer. I think the Bengals wait another year and try to get some sort of Plan B in place for next offseason (Aaron Murray or somebody like that) if they decide Andy isn't worth $15M or $17M or whatever he ends up being able to demand.

 

[Tool]

Hue Jackson says Andy Dalton 'on the cusp of something really good'

By Ryan Wilson | CBSSports.com

"Do you have a high-priced quarterback and less elsewhere or do you try to have as many guys as you can have and maybe a quarterback that is young and not so highly paid?" Brown asked at the time.

So the over-involved owner/pseudo GM/check signer says this?? Enter rookie QB in rd 1 or 2 which equals a Dalton goodbye in '15.

I believe the plan will be a QB in the round 3-4 range. Then if you eventually get a deal done with Dalton, you haven't overpaid too heavily for a backup QB.

If Dalton regresses in 2014, then maybe you have the replacement in house.

Mike Brown's comments are actually very interesting and a great topic for discussion regardless of your feelings on Dalton. In a long series of comments, he gets pretty in-depth and mentions how most of the recent Super Bowl champs have had QBs on rookie contracts (Russ Wilson, Tom Brady and Big Ben back in the day, etc.) or cheaper deals before getting huge money (Brees, Flacco and Rodgers were pretty reasonably paid at the time).

Let's assume for the sake of argument that Dalton is something like the 15th to 20th best QB. What is that worth? He was the 17th QB off the board in the RSP build a franchise draft. But that was good for 30th overall and ahead of Geno Atkins and AJ Green who both went in round 2. Is he really more valuable than those guys? Maybe so even though they are absolutely elite at their position and he is average at his. So you have this conundrum where a guy who is just an average starter at his position is still arguably one of the 32 most valuable players in the league...

There's basically no "middle class" at QB. When QBs get to the end of their rookie deals, they either get $15M+ or they get replaced. There are very, very few guys who fall into the middle category. There isn't a gradual scale where Rodgers gets $22M or whatever and then you work your way gradually down with a few guys making $12M, a handful making $10M, a few making $8M, etc. like you do at every other position. It's just one bucket ("Franchise QB") or the other...

I don't really know the answer. I think the Bengals wait another year and try to get some sort of Plan B in place for next offseason (Aaron Murray or somebody like that) if they decide Andy isn't worth $15M or $17M or whatever he ends up being able to demand.

Nice post and agree.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I still can't believe how many people are giving up on Dalton so quickly. I started hyping Dalton before he was even drafted and he is exactly on the right path to fantasy stardom. He has increased his yardage, avg, TDs and QB rating in each of his first 3 seasons. Anyone who doubts Dalton because you get caught up in the negative hype, just do a little research on some of the elite QBs in this league right now and you'll see that what Dalton has done in each of his first 3 seasons, is nearly incredible. If there's one thing I'm sure - and I've been saying it for years - it's that Dalton will stack pro-bowls upon pro-bowls.

Are you just looking at the stats, or do you watch him play? He's an above average starter. He'll never be elite, and not what I'd generally refer to as "pro bowl" caliber either, although he'll probably go to many as better QB's decline to participate.

Yeah, I watch him. He only has 3 years in the league and QB is the hardest position to master. He threw 27 then 33 TDs in his 2nd and 3rd seasons respectively. Research all of the current top 10 QBs to see how Dalton's progression stacks up against them. Dalton is the real deal but hes still growing and learning the position.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Also the exact same thing were being said about Drew Brees when he was with SD. All the expert fans were hoping the Chargers would trade Brees and let Rivers take over. We all know who is the better player now, with the advantage of hindsight.

 

[odin33]

Hue Jackson says Andy Dalton 'on the cusp of something really good'

By Ryan Wilson | CBSSports.com

"Do you have a high-priced quarterback and less elsewhere or do you try to have as many guys as you can have and maybe a quarterback that is young and not so highly paid?" Brown asked at the time.

So the over-involved owner/pseudo GM/check signer says this?? Enter rookie QB in rd 1 or 2 which equals a Dalton goodbye in '15.

Actually Mikey Boy has a tendency of paying his "franchise" QBs. Did it with Palmer the first time around, and Jeff Blake back in the day. The question is, does Mike think he's a franchise QB.

I wish Gruden would have left a year earlier. Would've shed some light as to whether Dalton folding like a cheap suit was the OC/play-calling or Dalton himself, but then the it's only his third year/new OC debate would start.

Good news is we'll likely have the answer after this year.

Mikey Boy please do not sign this guy to an extension before the season. Flacco rolled the dice and won. I suspect Dalton won't, but would be ecstatic as a fan to be wrong.

As to the "there aren't 32 franchise QBs/ He's a good QB why get rid of him" debate. My answer is ('14 will confirm this) "Because he can't win the big game/makes critical mistakes under pressure. As a result the team will consistently be good, but not go anywhere.

 

[Catbird]

Mikey's comments about going young and cheap at QB aren't among the things GMs say when they are delighted with their QB. I can see two possible explanations for it: either its pure BS for the contract negotiations or its a conscious step in the softening of Dalton fans to going in another direction at QB. I agree that the better path is to not make a decision yet and give Dalton this year. If he remains a mediocre producer when it matters (or worse) I think they'll go elsewhere. Putting up decent stats and still making horrible mistakes after 3 years as a starter with Green and that solid OL is not what you're looking for.

I think picking a 4th round QB or later is pretty much lip service to the position. I realize there are Brady's and one might take a shot at that, but those shots hit only maybe once every 10-15 years, and maybe not even that with the more advanced modern diagnostics. If you take a QB in the 2nd, he's an immediate threat to Dalton - as he might be a serious candidate to start, even if not right away (and by taking one you might be pushing Dalton out the door). I see a third round QB as a much longer shot to ever matter. I think you learn a lot about what Mikey is thinking based on whether he uses a 2nd, 3rd or 4th pick on a QB. If its the 3rd or later, he isn't expecting the guy to become a star and Dalton remains the plan - at least for this year and potentially beyond. My guess is they take one in the 2nd if there is a QB left they think can be the guy (Mettenberg or Garopollo are likely gone unless they trade up from their 2nd or down from their 1st) and McCarron, Murray and Savage are longshots you would only take early if you have a compelling need. So trade slots and take a solid option early in the 2nd if you are ready to replace Dalton, or at least very open to that course, or use your first 3 picks for solid picks to fill holes, just take a long shot QB now and wait to see how Dalton's '14 plays out.

 

[cstu]

Also the exact same thing were being said about Drew Brees when he was with SD. All the expert fans were hoping the Chargers would trade Brees and let Rivers take over. We all know who is the better player now, with the advantage of hindsight.

Dalton is actually following a similar career path to Brees...but also Sanchez. I'm not sold on him, especially with the number of INT's. For me this is a make or break year that will be very telling.

 

[knowledge dropper]

Also the exact same thing were being said about Drew Brees when he was with SD. All the expert fans were hoping the Chargers would trade Brees and let Rivers take over. We all know who is the better player now, with the advantage of hindsight.

Dalton is actually following a similar career path to Brees...but also Sanchez. I'm not sold on him, especially with the number of INT's. For me this is a make or break year that will be very telling.

Come on now. Dalton is no Sanchez. Give the kid SOME credit.

 

[cstu]

Also the exact same thing were being said about Drew Brees when he was with SD. All the expert fans were hoping the Chargers would trade Brees and let Rivers take over. We all know who is the better player now, with the advantage of hindsight.

Dalton is actually following a similar career path to Brees...but also Sanchez. I'm not sold on him, especially with the number of INT's. For me this is a make or break year that will be very telling.

Come on now. Dalton is no Sanchez. Give the kid SOME credit.

Sure he looks better but Sanchez never had AJ Green. In his 3rd year Sanchez threw 27 TD's and looked like he was turning the corner.

 

[Faust]

Agent's Take: Is Andy Dalton worth $15 million per year to the Bengals?

 

[Zaphod]

Also the exact same thing were being said about Drew Brees when he was with SD. All the expert fans were hoping the Chargers would trade Brees and let Rivers take over. We all know who is the better player now, with the advantage of hindsight.

Dalton is actually following a similar career path to Brees...but also Sanchez. I'm not sold on him, especially with the number of INT's. For me this is a make or break year that will be very telling.

Come on now. Dalton is no Sanchez. Give the kid SOME credit.

Sure he looks better but Sanchez never had AJ Green. In his 3rd year Sanchez threw 27 TD's and looked like he was turning the corner.

I agree with the point that this is the year for Dalton. I think oftentimes we tend to cherry pick one stat to 'validate' our position and only assume that said player will continue either trending up or down. Very rarely do we suggest a player will stop progressing or actually change their trajectory.

For me, there is a bit of a disconnect between his fantasy and NFL value. He was a decent fantasy option last year, but I was less than impressed with his overall bearing during some games, especially when things were more difficult.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Walk-year QB Andy Dalton spent a week working with quarterback guru Tom House earlier this offseason.
A former MLB pitcher, House has worked with Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Carson Palmer, among others. "We tweaked a few things just to make sure all of your momentum, all your force, everything you have is going toward the target of where you’re trying to throw," Dalton said. "I don’t think the average person will notice it." Dalton is wise to seek any edge, but it's highly unlikely his week with House will have a perceptible effect on his 2014 play.

Source: bengals.com

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Also the exact same thing were being said about Drew Brees when he was with SD. All the expert fans were hoping the Chargers would trade Brees and let Rivers take over. We all know who is the better player now, with the advantage of hindsight.

Dalton is actually following a similar career path to Brees...but also Sanchez. I'm not sold on him, especially with the number of INT's. For me this is a make or break year that will be very telling.

I understand why you wouldn't be sold on him as many are not. But to compare him to Sanchez?? Everyone knew Sanchez sucked from the get go. Was there anyone who thought he was even decent? There is no comparison between the two at any level. Sanchez did not become the starter until his junior year (final year). Andy Dalton was a 4 year starter with an overall record of 42-8. Of those 8 total losses, 5 came his freshman season. Dalton went 34-3 his last three seasons, including bowl games. Dalton went undefeated in both his Jr and Sr regular seasons and only lost 1 total game in those seasons, the bowl game his Jr year. Dalton has literally improved every single year like clockwork. The dude is going to be a STUD, mark my words.

Now for their NFL comparisons (I still can't believe you compared Dalton to Sanchez!! Shame on you).

Sanchez first three years progression NFL:

Yards - 2,444/3,291/3,474

TDs - 12/17/26

Completion % - 54/55/57

QB Rating - 63/75/78

Dalton first three years progression NFL:

Yards - 3,398/3,669/4,293

TDs - 20/27/33

Completion % - 58/62/62

QB Rating - 80/88/89

As you can see clearly, Dalton has been head and shoulders above Sanchez at every level of their football careers. I know many don't see Dalton's immense upside because in this age of instant gratification, people want results now but that's not how the QB position has developed historically. Dalton is progressing perfectly fine and I'm telling you, without a doubt, Dalton will be a perennial top 5 QB for several years. You really need to look no further than his TD progression. TDs thrown is the single biggest indicator of future success. The fact that he threw 27 in just his 2nd season and then 33 last year, his 3rd season is an incredible 'tell'. Be patient, it will obvious soon enough.

Not to thump my chest, but I was just as adamant about Drew Brees on another board way back when. I know QBs and Dalton is the real deal.

 

[cstu]

TDs thrown is the single biggest indicator of future success. The fact that he threw 27 in just his 2nd season and then 33 last year, his 3rd season is an incredible 'tell'.

Dalton - 20/27/33 (48 games)

Mark Sanchez - 12/17/26 (47 games)

Jeff Garcia - 11/31/32 (45 games)

Aaron Brooks - 9/26/27 (40 games)

Flacco - 14/21/25 (48 games)

Ken O'Brien - 6/25/25 (41 games)

 

[Gargoylez]

His post season performances have been brutal. He is serviceable, but not much more.

What good is a gun slinger when the chips are down your firing blanks?

Fantasy wise I like him, NFL wise he is a detriment to the Bengals imo.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

His post season performances have been brutal. He is serviceable, but not much more.

What good is a gun slinger when the chips are down your firing blanks?

Fantasy wise I like him, NFL wise he is a detriment to the Bengals imo.

He has only 3 seasons of NFL experience! People see the success of a Russell Wilson and think that's the new norm but it isn't. QB is the most difficult position to master in the NFL and early success by guys like Russell Wilson/Big Ben/Tom Brady… is the exception and definitely not the norm. Dalton WILL get better in the post-season. He's a proven winner at every level of his development and he will be a winner in the NFL too. Everyone has a short memory. Until Dalton arrived, when was the last time the Bengals made the playoffs? Only 1 team can make the playoffs and usually the teams with veteran QBs are the teams who make it deep into the playoffs - you know, the teams led by the Bradys and Mannings and Brees' and Rodgers of the world. Patience is a virtue.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

TDs thrown is the single biggest indicator of future success. The fact that he threw 27 in just his 2nd season and then 33 last year, his 3rd season is an incredible 'tell'.

Dalton - 20/27/33 (48 games)

Mark Sanchez - 12/17/26 (47 games)

Jeff Garcia - 11/31/32 (45 games)

Aaron Brooks - 9/26/27 (40 games)

Flacco - 14/21/25 (48 games)

Ken O'Brien - 6/25/25 (41 games)

C'mon man. We all know there are NO absolutes with anything in life, especially when it comes to anything predictive. Pointing out a few exceptions doesn't prove anything. When a young QB throws the amount of TDs Dalton has in his first 3 seasons, it is a very good indicator of future success. Again, nothing is absolute but there is a relatively strong likelihood of continued and future success. The point of my previous post was to call out that one metric as a strong indicator. With Dalton, not only does he have that indicator going for him but others as well that I called out earlier.

Doubt Dalton if you want, it won't affect me. I'm just trying to help other FBGers see the light. Calling out exceptions, however, is a tired argument tactic. If you're going to do that, you might as well give us a complete representation of QBs and their TDs over their first 3 seasons. That would paint the more accurate picture. If you did that, your point would not be proven, though.

 

[cstu]

C'mon man. We all know there are NO absolutes with anything in life, especially when it comes to anything predictive. Pointing out a few exceptions doesn't prove anything. When a young QB throws the amount of TDs Dalton has in his first 3 seasons, it is a very good indicator of future success. Again, nothing is absolute but there is a relatively strong likelihood of continued and future success. The point of my previous post was to call out that one metric as a strong indicator. With Dalton, not only does he have that indicator going for him but others as well that I called out earlier.

Doubt Dalton if you want, it won't affect me. I'm just trying to help other FBGers see the light. Calling out exceptions, however, is a tired argument tactic. If you're going to do that, you might as well give us a complete representation of QBs and their TDs over their first 3 seasons. That would paint the more accurate picture. If you did that, your point would not be proven, though.

My point is that his career could go either way - up or down. Has he done some things to be optimistic about in the future? Yes. However, he also has issues, namely throwing the ball deep, accuracy and interceptions. If he can improve he will be a very good QB but right now he's average.

 

[Banger]

His post season performances have been brutal. He is serviceable, but not much more.

What good is a gun slinger when the chips are down your firing blanks?

Fantasy wise I like him, NFL wise he is a detriment to the Bengals imo.

He has only 3 seasons of NFL experience! People see the success of a Russell Wilson and think that's the new norm but it isn't. QB is the most difficult position to master in the NFL and early success by guys like Russell Wilson/Big Ben/Tom Brady… is the exception and definitely not the norm. Dalton WILL get better in the post-season. He's a proven winner at every level of his development and he will be a winner in the NFL too. Everyone has a short memory. Until Dalton arrived, when was the last time the Bengals made the playoffs? Only 1 team can make the playoffs and usually the teams with veteran QBs are the teams who make it deep into the playoffs - you know, the teams led by the Bradys and Mannings and Brees' and Rodgers of the world. Patience is a virtue.

But they didn't make the playoffs because of Dalton. They've had a good team with good weapons and he's been along for the ride.

 

[Banger]

TDs thrown is the single biggest indicator of future success. The fact that he threw 27 in just his 2nd season and then 33 last year, his 3rd season is an incredible 'tell'.

Dalton - 20/27/33 (48 games)

Mark Sanchez - 12/17/26 (47 games)

Jeff Garcia - 11/31/32 (45 games)

Aaron Brooks - 9/26/27 (40 games)

Flacco - 14/21/25 (48 games)

Ken O'Brien - 6/25/25 (41 games)

C'mon man. We all know there are NO absolutes with anything in life, especially when it comes to anything predictive. Pointing out a few exceptions doesn't prove anything. When a young QB throws the amount of TDs Dalton has in his first 3 seasons, it is a very good indicator of future success. Again, nothing is absolute but there is a relatively strong likelihood of continued and future success. The point of my previous post was to call out that one metric as a strong indicator. With Dalton, not only does he have that indicator going for him but others as well that I called out earlier.Doubt Dalton if you want, it won't affect me. I'm just trying to help other FBGers see the light. Calling out exceptions, however, is a tired argument tactic. If you're going to do that, you might as well give us a complete representation of QBs and their TDs over their first 3 seasons. That would paint the more accurate picture. If you did that, your point would not be proven, though.

You think his td total has anything to do with a potential future HOFer in AJ green? He pretty consistently under throws jump balls and miraculously they're hauled in for 50 yard tds. Easy to do when you are throwing to him.There's a reason why despite the stats that many very credible nfl observers don't feel he's a good qb. Even his own team has question marks about him. If he were why would the first thing the new OC does is say he wants this statistically elite qb to throw less ? This is a year after they drafted a ton of receiving weapons for him. Seems counter intuitive.

 

[Faust]

Hue Jackson: Andy Dalton must play better for BengalsBy Chris Wesseling

Around the League Writer

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton ranks just behind Peyton Manning and Dan Marino with 80 touchdown passes in his first three seasons.

He's also one of just a handful of quarterbacks in NFL history to lead his team to the playoffs in each of first three seasons.

The problem is that those three postseason games rank among the worst performances in his 51 career starts.

New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson acknowledged Sunday that Dalton must play better on the NFL's biggest stage.

"Obviously that's the hump that we're trying to get over," Jackson told SiriusXM NFL Radio. "And I think the guy has the makeup to do it."

The core of Dalton's problem is that he has regressed at times in decision-making, field vision and pocket presence. Jackson plans to tear his mechanics down and build them up again this offseason.

"Just go back to the fundamentals that you use playing the game," Jackson explained, "from how you get under center, how you take a snap, the sense of urgency in your drop, where we're putting our eyes, how we're finishing our throws, our progress.

"And I think Andy's gonna learn that there's a time in the National Football League when you gotta say 'Uncle' and just throw the ball away."

If Dalton wants to get paid, he better be "on the cusp of something really good," as Jackson expects.

The Bengals are conflicted about a lucrative long-term extension because there's no market for purgatory quarterbacks.

The best field generals get paid like the face of the franchise. Average quarterbacks find themselves making way for a young, cheaper option.

Until Jackon's work pays tangible dividends, the Bengals are stuck in the middle with Dalton.

In the latest edition of the "Around The League Podcast", the guys discuss "Draft Day," then break down who got better (and who got worse) in the AFC East.

 

[T with T]

I still can't believe how many people are giving up on Dalton so quickly. I started hyping Dalton before he was even drafted and he is exactly on the right path to fantasy stardom. He has increased his yardage, avg, TDs and QB rating in each of his first 3 seasons. Anyone who doubts Dalton because you get caught up in the negative hype, just do a little research on some of the elite QBs in this league right now and you'll see that what Dalton has done in each of his first 3 seasons, is nearly incredible. If there's one thing I'm sure - and I've been saying it for years - it's that Dalton will stack pro-bowls upon pro-bowls.

only reason he is doing anything is because AJG... Green makes him look good.. I watched times when AJG wasn't in game and Dalton looks lost and can't move the ball.. The thread wasn't even trying to say Dalton was a horrible qb just stating the obvious. I have seen 10-20 passes over last 2 years that were poorly underthrown and could have been TDs. Also Dalton turns ball over in bad spots ala Tony Romo. He is nothing special and Game manager at best. Sorry fella just look at the facts.

 

[T with T]

Fact of the matter is Andy Dalton must play better like Huey said.

 

[T with T]

TDs thrown is the single biggest indicator of future success. The fact that he threw 27 in just his 2nd season and then 33 last year, his 3rd season is an incredible 'tell'.

Dalton - 20/27/33 (48 games)

Mark Sanchez - 12/17/26 (47 games)

Jeff Garcia - 11/31/32 (45 games)

Aaron Brooks - 9/26/27 (40 games)

Flacco - 14/21/25 (48 games)

Ken O'Brien - 6/25/25 (41 games)

C'mon man. We all know there are NO absolutes with anything in life, especially when it comes to anything predictive. Pointing out a few exceptions doesn't prove anything. When a young QB throws the amount of TDs Dalton has in his first 3 seasons, it is a very good indicator of future success. Again, nothing is absolute but there is a relatively strong likelihood of continued and future success. The point of my previous post was to call out that one metric as a strong indicator. With Dalton, not only does he have that indicator going for him but others as well that I called out earlier.Doubt Dalton if you want, it won't affect me. I'm just trying to help other FBGers see the light. Calling out exceptions, however, is a tired argument tactic. If you're going to do that, you might as well give us a complete representation of QBs and their TDs over their first 3 seasons. That would paint the more accurate picture. If you did that, your point would not be proven, though.

You think his td total has anything to do with a potential future HOFer in AJ green? He pretty consistently under throws jump balls and miraculously they're hauled in for 50 yard tds. Easy to do when you are throwing to him.There's a reason why despite the stats that many very credible nfl observers don't feel he's a good qb. Even his own team has question marks about him. If he were why would the first thing the new OC does is say he wants this statistically elite qb to throw less ? This is a year after they drafted a ton of receiving weapons for him. Seems counter intuitive.

 

[T with T]

Hello all you Dalton lovers.... He throws a lot of tds big deal, he has Freakin AJGreen ding dongs Any qb could throw tds to AJG that's nothing Extraordinary. Fact of the matter is Dalton is a ginger **** whoos who falls on his face in the playoffs.... He would be gone and I would start over with a rook like Garoppolo, aaron murray or D. Carr. Guy flat out sucks.

 

[T with T]

Hello all you Dalton lovers.... He throws a lot of tds big deal, he has Freakin AJGreen ding dongs Any qb could throw tds to AJG that's nothing Extraordinary. Fact of the matter is Dalton is a ginger **** whoos who falls on his face in the playoffs and is a turnover machine with a noodle arm..... He would be gone and I would start over with a rook like Garoppolo, aaron murray or D. Carr. Guy flat out sucks.

 

[T with T]

His post season performances have been brutal. He is serviceable, but not much more.

What good is a gun slinger when the chips are down your firing blanks?

Fantasy wise I like him, NFL wise he is a detriment to the Bengals imo.

He has only 3 seasons of NFL experience! People see the success of a Russell Wilson and think that's the new norm but it isn't. QB is the most difficult position to master in the NFL and early success by guys like Russell Wilson/Big Ben/Tom Brady… is the exception and definitely not the norm. Dalton WILL get better in the post-season. He's a proven winner at every level of his development and he will be a winner in the NFL too. Everyone has a short memory. Until Dalton arrived, when was the last time the Bengals made the playoffs? Only 1 team can make the playoffs and usually the teams with veteran QBs are the teams who make it deep into the playoffs - you know, the teams led by the Bradys and Mannings and Brees' and Rodgers of the world. Patience is a virtue.

But they didn't make the playoffs because of Dalton. They've had a good team with good weapons and he's been along for the ride.

Banger you are one of the few bright ones in this board... Good points. It's like saying Norris cole is great cuz the Heat won 2 championships ... lol get real everyone Knows its Lebron James team and he is along for the ride.. wake up Dalton sucks

 

[T with T]

TDs thrown is the single biggest indicator of future success. The fact that he threw 27 in just his 2nd season and then 33 last year, his 3rd season is an incredible 'tell'.

Dalton - 20/27/33 (48 games)

Mark Sanchez - 12/17/26 (47 games)

Jeff Garcia - 11/31/32 (45 games)

Aaron Brooks - 9/26/27 (40 games)

Flacco - 14/21/25 (48 games)

Ken O'Brien - 6/25/25 (41 games)

C'mon man. We all know there are NO absolutes with anything in life, especially when it comes to anything predictive. Pointing out a few exceptions doesn't prove anything. When a young QB throws the amount of TDs Dalton has in his first 3 seasons, it is a very good indicator of future success. Again, nothing is absolute but there is a relatively strong likelihood of continued and future success. The point of my previous post was to call out that one metric as a strong indicator. With Dalton, not only does he have that indicator going for him but others as well that I called out earlier.

Doubt Dalton if you want, it won't affect me. I'm just trying to help other FBGers see the light. Calling out exceptions, however, is a tired argument tactic. If you're going to do that, you might as well give us a complete representation of QBs and their TDs over their first 3 seasons. That would paint the more accurate picture. If you did that, your point would not be proven, though.

out of them 6 qbs how many of them were really Great.. Garcia was good, sanchez sucked ball$ and brooks was ok for a few years... Ken o brien who the hell cares and flacco seemed to regress after his third season..... Not real good arguing points.

 

[Zaphod]

Hello all you Dalton lovers.... He throws a lot of tds big deal, he has Freakin AJGreen ding dongs Any qb could throw tds to AJG that's nothing Extraordinary. Fact of the matter is Dalton is a ginger **** whoos who falls on his face in the playoffs.... He would be gone and I would start over with a rook like Garoppolo, aaron murray or D. Carr. Guy flat out sucks.

Don't think this is necessary. I am personally not blown away by Dalton and feel that he is more a product of all the weapons around him, rather than the opposite, but I think we can all agree that this type of post isn't especially helpful.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Hello all you Dalton lovers.... He throws a lot of tds big deal, he has Freakin AJGreen ding dongs Any qb could throw tds to AJG that's nothing Extraordinary. Fact of the matter is Dalton is a ginger **** whoos who falls on his face in the playoffs.... He would be gone and I would start over with a rook like Garoppolo, aaron murray or D. Carr. Guy flat out sucks.

If you want to come back in a few days you can as long as you can be way cooler.

For you other guys, this kind of thing won't work here.

J

 

[Faust]

Dalton is a quarterback at a crossroads

By Coley Harvey | ESPN.com

CINCINNATI -- Andy Dalton is standing at a career crossroads. This could be a make or break year for him.

OK, maybe "break" isn't quite the word to use here. For the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback, it's more like this could wind up being a make or keep middling type of year.

If he keeps playing like he has so far in his three-year career -- good, but occasionally bad in the regular season and overwhelmingly awful in the postseason -- then he'll continue being regarded as so-so quarterback who never really hit his stride, nor turned into an easily identifiable bust. He'd continue to be average -- a lukewarm signal-caller on a team with white-hot talent.

Another season of such mediocrity would be considered worthy of the title "break." So what then would a "make" year look like for Dalton? Chiefly, leading the Bengals to a playoff win or two. Secondarily, keeping his interception numbers in career-low territory while also surpassing his franchise-record 33-touchdown total from a year ago. If he does both those things, win in the postseason and have a favorable touchdown-interception ratio, he'll have traveled down the right road in the junction he's facing.

If you ask some experts, there is no chance Dalton takes that avenue to success during this pivotal fourth season.

"He is what he is, and he will never change," ESPN insider scout Matt Williamson said in fellow ESPN insider Mike Sando's story Wednesday about forecasting success for quarterbacks at a crossroads.

"He will be too good to cut and not good enough to win with. He wins three or four [games] a year for his team and loses one or two, but he is so much less gifted than all the other guys we are talking about here. Maybe if he was playing indoors, he could get away with it more."

Sando's story is the basis for this blog. He focused on using metrics (mainly QBR) to determine where young quarterbacks rank among their peers, and how those metrics could predict where their careers might head. Sando compared the QBR numbers from the first 16 career games of quarterbacks who entered the league after 2006.

He found that the QBR numbers from those first 16 games correlated to three tiers of "crossroads quarterbacks." There's an elite tier which had first 16-game QBRs that were higher than 65.2. Then there's a middle group with those same 16-game QBRs between 60.1 and 42.0. A lagging group had QBRs that only got as high as 40.3. The seven-man "QBR-elite" group featured three players who appeared in recent Super Bowls. The middle group had a sizable mix of young quarterbacks and veterans, with only one having appeared in a recent Super Bowl. The final group had several players who were drafted after 2006, and who are no longer in football.

The better the QBRs were, the more promising the quarterback's career should be, it appears.

That, of course, becomes a tricky subject matter with Dalton. He is one of the few players who was forced to play from Week 1 of his rookie year. He hasn't looked back since, starting all 48 regular season and three playoff games the Bengals have appeared in since 2011. Other quarterbacks might not even appear in a game their first two seasons. Coupled with his middle-of-the-road play the first three years, the fact he's played so much early makes it tough to forecast Dalton's career.

Back to Williamson's comment on Dalton playing indoors. Dalton has struggled at times during games played in December and January. While he's still 0-3 in the postseason in January, he did change his December woes in 2013. After tossing a combined eight touchdowns, getting sacked a combined 27 times and compiling a 41.5 QBR through his first two Decembers, Dalton had 12 touchdowns, a 71.1 QBR and was sacked just three times last December. The effort was good enough to post a 4-1 record across the final month of the season.

Perhaps he's starting to turn a corner.

The thing is, as Dalton flirts with a contract extension this offseason before his rookie deal expires next March, he needs to do more than turn that corner. He has to turn it, run -- not walk -- down the block to the next one and the one after, and keep going until he reaches the Super Bowl. He has the receivers, tight ends, offensive line, dynamic running back and talented defense to make a deep postseason trip a possibility sometime soon.

He also has had each of those, but the combination has yet to yield a run past the wild-card round of the playoffs. Is Dalton the common denominator behind Cincinnati's postseason misfortunes? Bengals coach Marvin Lewis doesn't necessarily think so, but his quarterback's six interceptions and one touchdown pass in those three playoff games are hard to overlook.

Maybe having an offensive coordinator who is more dedicated to the run than the previous one will help Dalton. Hue Jackson's ground-game tweaks ought to ease the pressure off the quarterback's shoulders.

A looser Dalton would make the Bengals a better team. A more decisive Dalton would make him a better player.

But on-field decisions aren't the only ones he has to make right now. Soon we'll find out which path Dalton chose to take in this all-important make or break year at the crossroads.

 

[T with T]

Hello all you Dalton lovers.... He throws a lot of tds big deal, he has Freakin AJGreen ding dongs Any qb could throw tds to AJG that's nothing Extraordinary. Fact of the matter is Dalton is a ginger **** whoos who falls on his face in the playoffs.... He would be gone and I would start over with a rook like Garoppolo, aaron murray or D. Carr. Guy flat out sucks.

Don't think this is necessary. I am personally not blown away by Dalton and feel that he is more a product of all the weapons around him, rather than the opposite, but I think we can all agree that this type of post isn't especially helpful.

sorry for that rant and I apologize to all you FBG owners I just can't see why The Dalton love he isn't that talented and like you said he is a good because of pieces around him ala AJG, Gio, Jones etc.

 

[Louche]

I think Andy Dalton has been getting too much criticism compared to what he has achieved in his short career. He's had an amazing start to his career and a lot of the more frustrating things about him can also be blamed on the playcalling of Gruden. I don't know how many times they have been knocking on the goal line, and instead of punching it in or targeting one of their 1st round tight ends on a low risk route off of play action, Gruden would get too fancy and too clever. The corner fade to AJG has worked really well, and that is a throw that Dalton is really good at, but why on earth would you ask a QB with less than ideal accuracy and arm strength to throw to an outside WR running a quick out route on the goalline when you are at early down and goal? Part of that is of course on Dalton since he forces the ball and makes bad reads, and coupled with his lack of ball placement and velocity on those type of throws that is how you get 20 INTs. But so many of those INTs and inability to sustain drives could have been avoided if they did not ask him to make those throws as often. I can appreciate a dink and dunk offense but they asked way too risky technical throws to the outside for potential 3-7 yard gains. I think Dalton has good timing and some of the throws he is very good at, but the playcalling has been really frustrating at times. I would also have to say that it is unfair to attribute Dalton's TDs and passing yards to AJG. I'm sure it helps, but it's not like he can just chuck it up to AJG and everything is automatic. That hasn't been their offense and AJG hasn't been that type of receiver for them. He's a smooth, dynamic, technical route runner, not a guy who beats double and triple coverage 40 yards down the field or an explosive receiver who turns a 5 yard pass into a 40 yard gain.

I'm hoping that their offense will get more run-oriented, more vertical off play action, and that Hue will utilize the TEs to a much greater extent, which should be good for Dalton and the Bengals. However, I think a lot of Dalton's fantasy production was a bit artificially inflated because of the volume in the Gruden offense and I'm pretty sure that his fantasy production will decline going forward. I'll still likely have him on a couple of my teams, because I think he can still be acquired quite cheaply and there is some nice young talent around him that makes him intriguing, but I'm not expecting him to keep outperforming QBs like Stafford, Romo, Kaep, Brady, Ryan, RGIII and Cutler, like he did in 2013.

 

[jurb26]

I would also have to say that it is unfair to attribute Dalton's TDs and passing yards to AJG. I'm sure it helps, but it's not like he can just chuck it up to AJG and everything is automatic. That hasn't been their offense and AJG hasn't been that type of receiver for them. He's a smooth, dynamic, technical route runner, not a guy who beats double and triple coverage 40 yards down the field or an explosive receiver who turns a 5 yard pass into a 40 yard gain.

I agree it's unfair to attribute all of Dalton's success to having AJG. Ialso have no idea what AJG you are watching though because I'm seeing him do these things you say he doesn't do in nearly every game I've watched.

 

[koreansteve]

As a Bengals fan, this is my take...

• Overall, he's ok. He's not the worst and doesn't "suck" as some say. But he's also not as good as perhaps his stats indicate. His TD number are inflated because of the great receiving talent around him. He also throws too many INTs, especially at critical points in the game.
• He does great against poor pass defenses (jets, lions, vikings). He struggles mightily against decent/good pass defenses (browns, ravens, miami) and in the playoffs. I have little to no faith in his ability to pull out a come-from-behind victory in the last 5min of the game (week 1 against the Bears was embarrassing).
• He seems to consistently throw behind his receivers, especially on long throws. Seems like you can pretty much rest assured that on any 25+ yd pass to AJ Green, AJ will have to put on the breaks and make an amazing adjustment to the ball because Dalton doesn't put it where it needs to be. Many plays that could have been 40+ yd TDs ended up being 25-30 yd gains because the receiver wouldn't catch the ball in-stride.
• Bengals have a pretty talented roster. Decent online, great TEs/WRs, great tandem at RB, good LBs, Geno and the Dline...just need a little help in the secondary. Dalton is an ok QB. I'm willing to take 1 more look at him as our QB in 2014. But assuming he plays the same, I'd prefer we move on in a different direction. I don't want 5-6 years of mediocre 'make the playoffs and lose in the first round' any more. I think most Bengals fans either want him to make the transition to more of an elite QB or bring in a young guy that can be the QB next year.
• I don't think Dalton will progress much past what he's shown us already
• I think his numbers take a significant decline (especially TDs) in 2014 because of Hue Jackson's emphasis on the run.
• I think he's a fine backup QB for fantasy purposes in 2014. Especially if the Bengals are playing a poor pass defense. But I won't be counting on him as my starter or my 1b QB.

I'm happy we're not stuck with the likes of Geno Smith/Josh Freeman/Schaub/etc...but I think this pretty accurately sums it all up:

"He is what he is, and he will never change," ESPN insider scout Matt Williamson said in fellow ESPN insider Mike Sando's story Wednesday about forecasting success for quarterbacks at a crossroads. "He will be too good to cut and not good enough to win with. He wins three or four [games] a year for his team and loses one or two, but he is so much less gifted than all the other guys we are talking about here. Maybe if he was playing indoors, he could get away with it more."

Also, an interesting stat. In terms of redzone pass attempts to redzone TDs, Dalton was very efficient.

Dalton. 65 attempts, 21 TDs. 3.1 ratio

Stafford. 78 attempts, 21 TDs. 3.71 ratio

Rivers. 87 attempts, 22 TDs. 3.95 ratio

Brady. 83 attempts, 20 TDs. 4.15 ratio

Luck. 70 attempts, 14 TDs. 5.0 ratio

 

[Louche]

I would also have to say that it is unfair to attribute Dalton's TDs and passing yards to AJG. I'm sure it helps, but it's not like he can just chuck it up to AJG and everything is automatic. That hasn't been their offense and AJG hasn't been that type of receiver for them. He's a smooth, dynamic, technical route runner, not a guy who beats double and triple coverage 40 yards down the field or an explosive receiver who turns a 5 yard pass into a 40 yard gain.

I agree it's unfair to attribute all of Dalton's success to having AJG. Ialso have no idea what AJG you are watching though because I'm seeing him do these things you say he doesn't do in nearly every game I've watched.

My initial reaction, and I don't mean this in a rude way, but how closely do you follow the Bengals? I think if you see the highlights and you watch a game here and there, it is easy to get the impression that AJ is a constant big play receiver but I would not say that he is. The way I see it:

The bread and butter of the Dalton to AJ connection is the quick slant, the short hitch and out routes, and intermediate/deep comeback and out routes. They go to these routes aaaaallllll the time - particularly the quick slant and the 7-10 yard hitch, comeback and out routes. AJ is still one of the players with the most yards from long passes, but these are primarily deep out routes and zone beating post routes in the 20-30 range where Dalton has the right timing and precision to get the ball in the right place and AJ is allowed to go up or to the sideline more or less uncontested to make the catch. So to me the success of this part of their game is just as much Dalton's credit as it is AJ's. They're not easy throws to make.

Do we see AJ go up against double coverage on deep routes where he manages to come down with the ball? Yeah, it happens. They'll run a deep post route off of play action now and then and chuck it up there for AJ to grab, like they did against the Jets and the Ravens, but it's a rare occurence and while AJ came down with maybe 4 of these balls last season, half ot the time the ball bounced around so you couldn't really say that AJ went up and beat the coverage by highpointing the ball, and you were just as likely to see Dalton overthrow or underthrow the ball on these plays and AJ give up on the play which sometimes lead to interceptions. At times you'll also see them target AJ deep along the sideline but when successful they are always against single coverage where Dalton finds the right spot to drop the ball as AJ separates from the cornerback, and you will more often see successful deep out routes or comeback routes, not go routes. Also on these routes you will see that he gives up on the play when he faces double coverage on go routes and the throw is not precise, which is very frustrating to watch. He can be fantastic in terms of adjusting to the ball, he can run an intermediate hitch route when Dalton is expecting an out route and launch himself like a cheetah towards the sideline to make the catch...but other times when being overthrown he will pull up instead of defending against the interception.

Some other routes that you will see from time to time are deep corner routes from the slot, short crossing routes, and screen passes, but these are a very small part of his game and his YAC is significantly lower than that of the other "elite" receivers. He had this one long run after a screen pass against Buffalo but that was pretty much it last season.

Demariyus Thomas 7.6 YAC / 10.8 ADOT / YPC 15,5 / 138 targets / 1430 yds

Calvin Johnson 5.6 YAC / 15.4 ADOT / YPC 17,7 / 169 targets / 1697 yds (extrapolated to 16 games)

Josh Gordon 7.3 YAC / 14.3 ADOT / YPC 18,9 / 170 targets / 1881 yds (extrapolated to 16 games)

Dez Bryant 5.7 YAC / 12.3 ADOT / YPC 13,4 / 156 targets / 1249 yds

Julio Jones 6.4 YAC / 10.7 ADOT / YPC 14,1 / 182 targets / 1856 yds (extrapolated to 16 games)

AJ Green 4.1 YAC / 14.1 ADOT / YPC 14,6 / 171 targets / 1426 yds

So no, I would not say that AJ has been the explosive receiver who is a human highlight reel. I love him as a player and he is for sure a deep threat, but his production comes more from his amazing route running and release, his ability to beat single coverage and his soft hands, not his explosiveness, pure physical domination or abilities with the ball in his hands - like you would say with most of the other elite wide receivers. And his crisp route running doesn't get him far if he is playing with a QB who doesn't have the timing and precision to make those types of throws. Deep comeback routes, deep out routes, dropping the ball in the right place between zones in the middle of the field on an intermediate/deep post route...these are not easy throws to make. I would say that Dalton can be very accurate in the 10-30 range and make some difficult throws, but he struggles on the longest throws and he can make some really headscratching decisions on some of his shorter throws. I think part of the reason for that is that while he has had a really good pass blocking o-line, he is terrible when he gets pressure in his face. He gets the ball out very quickly, but his decision making and accuracy is horrible when the pass rush is getting to him.

With all that being said; I think AJ could be that type of big play receiver with another QB or in another system, I'm just saying that he hasn't been with the Bengals under Gruden. It would be really exciting to see him with a QB that has more accuracy on the deep balls, and it would have been crazy to see him with a super-accurate QB like Rodgers or Peyton to really see the ceiling in AJ's short and intermediate game.

 

[jurb26]

I watch a lot of Bengals football, a lot. Not every game but at least 8 games a year. I don't see it anywhere close to your take. I think korensteve has it right.

 

[bengalbuck]

I would also have to say that it is unfair to attribute Dalton's TDs and passing yards to AJG. I'm sure it helps, but it's not like he can just chuck it up to AJG and everything is automatic. That hasn't been their offense and AJG hasn't been that type of receiver for them. He's a smooth, dynamic, technical route runner, not a guy who beats double and triple coverage 40 yards down the field or an explosive receiver who turns a 5 yard pass into a 40 yard gain.

I agree it's unfair to attribute all of Dalton's success to having AJG. Ialso have no idea what AJG you are watching though because I'm seeing him do these things you say he doesn't do in nearly every game I've watched.

My initial reaction, and I don't mean this in a rude way, but how closely do you follow the Bengals? I think if you see the highlights and you watch a game here and there, it is easy to get the impression that AJ is a constant big play receiver but I would not say that he is. The way I see it:

The bread and butter of the Dalton to AJ connection is the quick slant, the short hitch and out routes, and intermediate/deep comeback and out routes. They go to these routes aaaaallllll the time - particularly the quick slant and the 7-10 yard hitch, comeback and out routes. AJ is still one of the players with the most yards from long passes, but these are primarily deep out routes and zone beating post routes in the 20-30 range where Dalton has the right timing and precision to get the ball in the right place and AJ is allowed to go up or to the sideline more or less uncontested to make the catch. So to me the success of this part of their game is just as much Dalton's credit as it is AJ's. They're not easy throws to make.

Do we see AJ go up against double coverage on deep routes where he manages to come down with the ball? Yeah, it happens. They'll run a deep post route off of play action now and then and chuck it up there for AJ to grab, like they did against the Jets and the Ravens, but it's a rare occurence and while AJ came down with maybe 4 of these balls last season, half ot the time the ball bounced around so you couldn't really say that AJ went up and beat the coverage by highpointing the ball, and you were just as likely to see Dalton overthrow or underthrow the ball on these plays and AJ give up on the play which sometimes lead to interceptions. At times you'll also see them target AJ deep along the sideline but when successful they are always against single coverage where Dalton finds the right spot to drop the ball as AJ separates from the cornerback, and you will more often see successful deep out routes or comeback routes, not go routes. Also on these routes you will see that he gives up on the play when he faces double coverage on go routes and the throw is not precise, which is very frustrating to watch. He can be fantastic in terms of adjusting to the ball, he can run an intermediate hitch route when Dalton is expecting an out route and launch himself like a cheetah towards the sideline to make the catch...but other times when being overthrown he will pull up instead of defending against the interception.

Some other routes that you will see from time to time are deep corner routes from the slot, short crossing routes, and screen passes, but these are a very small part of his game and his YAC is significantly lower than that of the other "elite" receivers. He had this one long run after a screen pass against Buffalo but that was pretty much it last season.

Demariyus Thomas 7.6 YAC / 10.8 ADOT / YPC 15,5 / 138 targets / 1430 yds

Calvin Johnson 5.6 YAC / 15.4 ADOT / YPC 17,7 / 169 targets / 1697 yds (extrapolated to 16 games)

Josh Gordon 7.3 YAC / 14.3 ADOT / YPC 18,9 / 170 targets / 1881 yds (extrapolated to 16 games)

Dez Bryant 5.7 YAC / 12.3 ADOT / YPC 13,4 / 156 targets / 1249 yds

Julio Jones 6.4 YAC / 10.7 ADOT / YPC 14,1 / 182 targets / 1856 yds (extrapolated to 16 games)

AJ Green 4.1 YAC / 14.1 ADOT / YPC 14,6 / 171 targets / 1426 yds

So no, I would not say that AJ has been the explosive receiver who is a human highlight reel. I love him as a player and he is for sure a deep threat, but his production comes more from his amazing route running and release, his ability to beat single coverage and his soft hands, not his explosiveness, pure physical domination or abilities with the ball in his hands - like you would say with most of the other elite wide receivers. And his crisp route running doesn't get him far if he is playing with a QB who doesn't have the timing and precision to make those types of throws. Deep comeback routes, deep out routes, dropping the ball in the right place between zones in the middle of the field on an intermediate/deep post route...these are not easy throws to make. I would say that Dalton can be very accurate in the 10-30 range and make some difficult throws, but he struggles on the longest throws and he can make some really headscratching decisions on some of his shorter throws. I think part of the reason for that is that while he has had a really good pass blocking o-line, he is terrible when he gets pressure in his face. He gets the ball out very quickly, but his decision making and accuracy is horrible when the pass rush is getting to him.

With all that being said; I think AJ could be that type of big play receiver with another QB or in another system, I'm just saying that he hasn't been with the Bengals under Gruden. It would be really exciting to see him with a QB that has more accuracy on the deep balls, and it would have been crazy to see him with a super-accurate QB like Rodgers or Peyton to really see the ceiling in AJ's short and intermediate game.

Good post. AJ is a great all around WR in the mold of Andre Johnson. He isn't a dominant jump ball guy like Calvin Johnson though where you just throw it up even if he's triple covered.

Andy was actually more efficient throwing to Marvin Jones last year and a lot of his INTs were from trying to force it to AJ.

Both guys benefit each other and when Andy is on, he makes AJ a better WR. "Good Andy" is a great QB who puts the ball in the right spots and finds the open guy really well.

The real problem with Andy is simply consistency. There is such a thing as "bad Andy." He has halfs and even whole games where he just seems off. Other games he is great all game and then he makes 1 or 2 decisions that just make you shake your head. This is the thing separating him from the top 10 QBs. Maybe it is a youth thing and maybe it is something he will struggle with his entire career.

He was noticeably better at home last year compared to on the road. It wasn't just the defense that allowed the Bengals to go 8-0 at home in the regular season. That is something that gives me some hope that he can grow out of some of the inconsistency because that is another sign of youth. A lot of young guys struggle at times on the road, including guys like Russell Wilson who have been put into a higher tier than Dalton (justifiably, but still).

All the talk of weak arm, poor deep ball, etc. is a red herring. It is consistency of decision making and ability to step up in the big moments and in pressure situations on the road that is the major issue. You can't throw 20 INTs. You can't have big games where you don't show up.