QB Anthony Richardson, IND (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I can't find a betting number on this but the fantasy pros projection page has him at 4, which does seem a little low.

They may also be operating under the assumption that Minshew starts a few games.

 

[Todem]

I know he is a tantalizing prospect......but if he does start day 1.....the Colts will absolutely have a top 3 pick next season. I saw nothing from him at Florida to suggest he is ready to lead an NFL team day one as a rookie. This kid needs to carry a clipboard and learn for a year. Just my opinion.

But in this day and age that rarely happens anymore......especially when the guy in front of you is Minshew (who I love as a great story even though he is a typical journeyman now in the NFL).

There will be a ton of growing pains with him. But wow the physical talent is off the charts for this kid.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In our current hot take world I'm sure there are some people saying it. The vast majority certainly aren't, otherwise it would be reflected in ADP, rankings, etc.

And time may tell, but it probably won't.

That might be a bit of a false correlation though.

1. Quality of opinion matters. I’m reading / watching YT, seeing tweets from industry writers I trust.

2. ADP reflects every FF manager from the best to the most mouth breathing taco around, and as such is wholly divorced from the aforementioned expert opinions.

3. Just because the masses aren’t catching on yet doesn’t mean they won’t in time. ADP in July isn’t ADP in August.

4. We’ll collectively know more with some preseason action to see how JT is really utilized.

5. Agree with Ock that designed passes to the RB are where a lot of their receptions come from. But short game accuracy is currently ARich’s worst attribute, according to all sources. While I believe footwork will eventually improve, we’ve seen guys like Danny Dimes struggle with those 3 yard bunny passes for years.

Again, time will tell. But claiming ADP is any sort of proof that the fantasy writers who are down on JT are wrong is simply a fallacy.

 

[Ilov80s]

What do we think the o/u will be on AR rushing TDs from the books?

Not sure what’s on the books but I’d set the o/u at 5.5.

I can't find a betting number on this but the fantasy pros projection page has him at 4, which does seem a little low.

I’m sure the chance he doesn’t start the year is baked into that number. I bet it comes up once he’s declared the official week 1 starter.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What do we think the o/u will be on AR rushing TDs from the books?

Not sure what’s on the books but I’d set the o/u at 5.5.

I can't find a betting number on this but the fantasy pros projection page has him at 4, which does seem a little low.

I’m sure the chance he doesn’t start the year is baked into that number. I bet it comes up once he’s declared the official week 1 starter.

Yep - I said the same upthread.

Makes it a really attractive bet if you think the Colts throw him into the deep end game 1. He’d smash that over in a 17 game season.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What do we think the o/u will be on AR rushing TDs from the books?

Not sure what’s on the books but I’d set the o/u at 5.5.

I can't find a betting number on this but the fantasy pros projection page has him at 4, which does seem a little low.

I’m sure the chance he doesn’t start the year is baked into that number. I bet it comes up once he’s declared the official week 1 starter.

It will also move up as bets come in, because I don’t see many people taking the under on that bet - except perhaps for those that think he’ll be an all around failure. Betting the under on that isn’t a fun bet, the public will push it up.

 

[travdogg]

I know he is a tantalizing prospect......but if he does start day 1.....the Colts will absolutely have a top 3 pick next season. I saw nothing from him at Florida to suggest he is ready to lead an NFL team day one as a rookie. This kid needs to carry a clipboard and learn for a year. Just my opinion.

But in this day and age that rarely happens anymore......especially when the guy in front of you is Minshew (who I love as a great story even though he is a typical journeyman now in the NFL).

There will be a ton of growing pains with him. But wow the physical talent is off the charts for this kid.

I'd argue if they start Minshew for a year, they are likely to have a top-3 pick.

I think they'd honestly have more success with Richardson than Minshew, even if they only attempted 20 passes a game. Just run the ball and take deep shots off PA. Teams can't stack the box too much on a guy who can throw 60+ yards with ease, even with sketchy accuracy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'd argue if they start Minshew for a year, they are likely to have a top-3 pick.

Which might not be a bad idea if they want MHJr or an elite DE.

But IMO they want ARich to get OJT. Which could be bad for JT & everyone else in the Colts offense.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Teams can't stack the box too much on a guy who can throw 60+ yards with ease, even with sketchy accuracy.

Also FWIW reportedly his deep ball accuracy is his best attribute passing-wise.

 

[CravenM]

I know he is a tantalizing prospect......but if he does start day 1.....the Colts will absolutely have a top 3 pick next season. I saw nothing from him at Florida to suggest he is ready to lead an NFL team day one as a rookie. This kid needs to carry a clipboard and learn for a year. Just my opinion.

But in this day and age that rarely happens anymore......especially when the guy in front of you is Minshew (who I love as a great story even though he is a typical journeyman now in the NFL).

There will be a ton of growing pains with him. But wow the physical talent is off the charts for this kid.

Ditto. His athletic skill is not questionable - his QBing ability is extremely questionable. He can take over a game with legs and arms in one week - next week, he can't throw a dump off pass to an RB.
Last year at Florida, he got worse and worse, week after week. Not sure if he's unsmart, it was bad coaching, poor supporting cast or problems at home. But his fans are going to shorten their life with watching his highs and lows.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Interesting - looks like ARich is camp roomies with Josh Downs

 

[massraider]

Interesting - looks like ARich is camp roomies with Josh Downs

Nice! Maybe Downs can become his favorite downfield blocker.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Interesting - looks like ARich is camp roomies with Josh Downs

Nice! Maybe Downs can become his favorite downfield blocker.

As ARich is the only colt I roster anywhere I’d be 100% in favor of this.

 

[Faust]

Colts WR Josh Downs on QB Anthony Richardson: 'He flicks his wrist and the ball goes 60 yards'

 

[humpback]

In our current hot take world I'm sure there are some people saying it. The vast majority certainly aren't, otherwise it would be reflected in ADP, rankings, etc.

And time may tell, but it probably won't.

That might be a bit of a false correlation though.

1. Quality of opinion matters. I’m reading / watching YT, seeing tweets from industry writers I trust.

2. ADP reflects every FF manager from the best to the most mouth breathing taco around, and as such is wholly divorced from the aforementioned expert opinions.

3. Just because the masses aren’t catching on yet doesn’t mean they won’t in time. ADP in July isn’t ADP in August.

4. We’ll collectively know more with some preseason action to see how JT is really utilized.

5. Agree with Ock that designed passes to the RB are where a lot of their receptions come from. But short game accuracy is currently ARich’s worst attribute, according to all sources. While I believe footwork will eventually improve, we’ve seen guys like Danny Dimes struggle with those 3 yard bunny passes for years.

Again, time will tell. But claiming ADP is any sort of proof that the fantasy writers who are down on JT are wrong is simply a fallacy.

1. I mean, I guess we can all just say whatever we want since there's no way to confirm or deny it. I'm reading rankings from people I trust, and not a single one of them has said that ARich is a doomsday scenario for JT.

2. So then look at "expert" drafts, and tell me where his value has "dropped like a rock". Rhetorical, I'm sure you'll dismiss those too, I guess only your personally approved, unnamed sources count.

3. Do you honestly think no one has contemplated this? And once they see the same youtube videos that you've watched it's going to sink him like a rock? Yes, his ADP can change for a ton of reasons, everyone finally having an epiphany that ARich is going to steal some TDs isn't one of them. It's known.

4. Doubtful. Neither one will likely play a ton, JT may not play at all, and they aren't likely to unleash much of their "real" offense in the preseason anyway.

5. Lol at "according to all sources". Anyway, I'll debunk this "example" as well. Danny Dimes, who threw even less to his RBs in college than ARich did which you proclaimed "a lock" to mean he won't do it in the pros, and he wasn't good at it as you said, had no problems peppering Barkley with over 4 receptions per game on almost 6 targets per game his rookie season.

 

[Faust]

Training camp notebook: Anthony Richardson has 'wow,' learning moments with Colts' first-team offense

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In our current hot take world I'm sure there are some people saying it. The vast majority certainly aren't, otherwise it would be reflected in ADP, rankings, etc.

And time may tell, but it probably won't.

That might be a bit of a false correlation though.

1. Quality of opinion matters. I’m reading / watching YT, seeing tweets from industry writers I trust.

2. ADP reflects every FF manager from the best to the most mouth breathing taco around, and as such is wholly divorced from the aforementioned expert opinions.

3. Just because the masses aren’t catching on yet doesn’t mean they won’t in time. ADP in July isn’t ADP in August.

4. We’ll collectively know more with some preseason action to see how JT is really utilized.

5. Agree with Ock that designed passes to the RB are where a lot of their receptions come from. But short game accuracy is currently ARich’s worst attribute, according to all sources. While I believe footwork will eventually improve, we’ve seen guys like Danny Dimes struggle with those 3 yard bunny passes for years.

Again, time will tell. But claiming ADP is any sort of proof that the fantasy writers who are down on JT are wrong is simply a fallacy.

1. I mean, I guess we can all just say whatever we want since there's no way to confirm or deny it. I'm reading rankings from people I trust, and not a single one of them has said that ARich is a doomsday scenario for JT.

2. So then look at "expert" drafts, and tell me where his value has "dropped like a rock". Rhetorical, I'm sure you'll dismiss those too, I guess only your personally approved, unnamed sources count.

3. Do you honestly think no one has contemplated this? And once they see the same youtube videos that you've watched it's going to sink him like a rock? Yes, his ADP can change for a ton of reasons, everyone finally having an epiphany that ARich is going to steal some TDs isn't one of them. It's known.

4. Doubtful. Neither one will likely play a ton, JT may not play at all, and they aren't likely to unleash much of their "real" offense in the preseason anyway.

5. Lol at "according to all sources". Anyway, I'll debunk this "example" as well. Danny Dimes, who threw even less to his RBs in college than ARich did which you proclaimed "a lock" to mean he won't do it in the pros, and he wasn't good at it as you said, had no problems peppering Barkley with over 4 receptions per game on almost 6 targets per game his rookie season.

We can agree to disagree. Which I still totally do. Enjoy your day.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Training camp notebook: Anthony Richardson has 'wow,' learning moments with Colts' first-team offense

Great stuff.

 

[(HULK)]

I think people are vastly overrating the "project" aspect of AR. Sure, he didn't get a ton of college experience, and sure, he could still use some polish. But the kid has the absolute right attitude and is low key very intelligent and has excellent instincts. All of this is on top of an athletic profile that we've never seen before, not just running but his arm is a freaking cannon too. He's going to be successful in year 1. NFL successful enough to be a top 15 QB. Fantasy successful enough to be a top 8 QB, maybe higher depending on when he takes over fully. In 2025, if he doesn't face a major injury, I think it's more likely than not he's the #1 QB in the league.

 

[humpback]

Sure but if his RZ carries and already limited receptions both decrease, it does hurt his value.

But we have no idea if either will decrease in number. His percentage of RZ carries will almost certainly decrease, but that doesn't mean the number will- a smaller percentage of a larger pie can be greater than a larger percentage of a smaller pie. Hurts had 11 rushing TDs from inside the red zone last year, Philly RBs had 17. Taylor had 3, and all Indy RBs combined for 7 (total, not just RZ).

I'm not sure where this narrative that running QBs don't pass to RBs came from but it doesn't really hold water. The top rushing QBs in the NFL last year were Fields, Lamar, Allen, Hurts, and Jones. All throw to their RBs a decent amount, some more than a decent amount. It doesn't hold up historically either- Vick had no problems throwing to Dunn and McCoy, and Cam threw a lot to his RBs, and a TON when he had McCaffrey. Besides, Taylor has averaged less than 2.5 catches per game for less than 19 ypg with 1 receiving TD per year. Even if he did have a massive 50% drop it wouldn't amount to all that much and could easily be made up in other areas. If we were talking about someone like Ekeler or Gibbs, that would be a bit different.

I think most of the numbers show that running QBs tend to be a net positive for their RBs overall. I've yet to see any evidence that it's a doomsday scenario.

 

[Ilov80s]

Sure but if his RZ carries and already limited receptions both decrease, it does hurt his value.

But we have no idea if either will decrease in number. His percentage of RZ carries will almost certainly decrease, but that doesn't mean the number will- a smaller percentage of a larger pie can be greater than a larger percentage of a smaller pie. Hurts had 11 rushing TDs from inside the red zone last year, Philly RBs had 17. Taylor had 3, and all Indy RBs combined for 7 (total, not just RZ).

I'm not sure where this narrative that running QBs don't pass to RBs came from but it doesn't really hold water. The top rushing QBs in the NFL last year were Fields, Lamar, Allen, Hurts, and Jones. All throw to their RBs a decent amount, some more than a decent amount. It doesn't hold up historically either- Vick had no problems throwing to Dunn and McCoy, and Cam threw a lot to his RBs, and a TON when he had McCaffrey. Besides, Taylor has averaged less than 2.5 catches per game for less than 19 ypg with 1 receiving TD per year. Even if he did have a massive 50% drop it wouldn't amount to all that much and could easily be made up in other areas. If we were talking about someone like Ekeler or Gibbs, that would be a bit different.

I think most of the numbers show that running QBs tend to be a net positive for their RBs overall. I've yet to see any evidence that it's a doomsday scenario.

This is a few years old so I welcome a more updated study

Fantasy football influence of mobile quarterbacks on running backs: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and more

In Andrew Erickson's debut article for PFF Fantasy, he evaluates the relationship between running backs and mobile quarterbacks in fantasy football, giving some tips on who to target and who to avoid in fantasy football drafts.

www.pff.com

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Sure but if his RZ carries and already limited receptions both decrease, it does hurt his value.

But we have no idea if either will decrease in number. His percentage of RZ carries will almost certainly decrease, but that doesn't mean the number will- a smaller percentage of a larger pie can be greater than a larger percentage of a smaller pie. Hurts had 11 rushing TDs from inside the red zone last year, Philly RBs had 17. Taylor had 3, and all Indy RBs combined for 7 (total, not just RZ).

I'm not sure where this narrative that running QBs don't pass to RBs came from but it doesn't really hold water. The top rushing QBs in the NFL last year were Fields, Lamar, Allen, Hurts, and Jones. All throw to their RBs a decent amount, some more than a decent amount. It doesn't hold up historically either- Vick had no problems throwing to Dunn and McCoy, and Cam threw a lot to his RBs, and a TON when he had McCaffrey. Besides, Taylor has averaged less than 2.5 catches per game for less than 19 ypg with 1 receiving TD per year. Even if he did have a massive 50% drop it wouldn't amount to all that much and could easily be made up in other areas. If we were talking about someone like Ekeler or Gibbs, that would be a bit different.

I think most of the numbers show that running QBs tend to be a net positive for their RBs overall. I've yet to see any evidence that it's a doomsday scenario.

This is a few years old so I welcome a more updated study

Fantasy football influence of mobile quarterbacks on running backs: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and more

In Andrew Erickson's debut article for PFF Fantasy, he evaluates the relationship between running backs and mobile quarterbacks in fantasy football, giving some tips on who to target and who to avoid in fantasy football drafts.

www.pff.com

From 2022

I’ve read several articles about this since, and have since seen several breakdowns of the Colts potential in particular on YouTube (a couple also discussing JT wanting a new contract & the Colts having little interest in giving him one) and it adds up to me avoiding JT this year.

Each to their own. He’s still being drafted as the dude who led FF a couple years ago & IMO unless Minshew somehow wins the job, that’s a dramatic overpay.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He’s still being drafted as the dude who led FF a couple years ago

Wouldn’t that be 1.01?

I don’t really look at ADP much since I’m only in one redraft league and it’s been with basically the same people for 25 years - so ADP is fairly meaningless there.

What’s his ADP? I have 1.06 (14 teams) in my league. I’m not considering him and I’d guess he’s not going until 1.10 or later (maybe even after the turn at 1.14) - so not sure he’s being valued like heading into 2022 drafts because he was the consensus 1.01.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Kind of forgot this was the Richardson thread - but at least most of the Taylor conversation is about how he’s affected by Richardson.

 

[humpback]

Sure but if his RZ carries and already limited receptions both decrease, it does hurt his value.

But we have no idea if either will decrease in number. His percentage of RZ carries will almost certainly decrease, but that doesn't mean the number will- a smaller percentage of a larger pie can be greater than a larger percentage of a smaller pie. Hurts had 11 rushing TDs from inside the red zone last year, Philly RBs had 17. Taylor had 3, and all Indy RBs combined for 7 (total, not just RZ).

I'm not sure where this narrative that running QBs don't pass to RBs came from but it doesn't really hold water. The top rushing QBs in the NFL last year were Fields, Lamar, Allen, Hurts, and Jones. All throw to their RBs a decent amount, some more than a decent amount. It doesn't hold up historically either- Vick had no problems throwing to Dunn and McCoy, and Cam threw a lot to his RBs, and a TON when he had McCaffrey. Besides, Taylor has averaged less than 2.5 catches per game for less than 19 ypg with 1 receiving TD per year. Even if he did have a massive 50% drop it wouldn't amount to all that much and could easily be made up in other areas. If we were talking about someone like Ekeler or Gibbs, that would be a bit different.

I think most of the numbers show that running QBs tend to be a net positive for their RBs overall. I've yet to see any evidence that it's a doomsday scenario.

This is a few years old so I welcome a more updated study

Fantasy football influence of mobile quarterbacks on running backs: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and more

In Andrew Erickson's debut article for PFF Fantasy, he evaluates the relationship between running backs and mobile quarterbacks in fantasy football, giving some tips on who to target and who to avoid in fantasy football drafts.

www.pff.com

Thanks for the link. I don't want to get too deep in the weeds but will comment.

This is based on one season and primarily addresses running back targets, which as I pointed out is only a small part of Taylor's game. But let's set that aside- it does mention how Ingram was dominant on the ground with Lamar in 2019 at least, but it says they ranked dead last in RB targets. Sounds daunting. However, Ingram scored more ppg receiving that year than Taylor has in any season in his career. More importantly, overall Ingram was a RB1 and had his 2nd best FF season of his 12 year career, as a 29/30 yo, with a QB who set and still holds the record for rushing attempts and yards in a season by a QB. AND he was splitting with other RBs and ate only ~1/2 of the RB "pie". He says Singletary's volume as a receiver will be hurt by playing with Allen- maybe, maybe not, but he's still managed to put up the same receiving numbers as Taylor has so it certainly hasn't been a death knell, and Singletary also splits touches.

Some of the other stuff could potentially be interesting, but I can't see the data and the explanation isn't clear. For instance, it's say they saw a decrease in fantasy points per snap. Okay, how large of a decrease? Was it for the lead RB or all RBs? Most importantly, did it lead to a decrease in fantasy points overall- less per snap doesn't necessarily mean less overall if snaps increase.

His conclusion paragraph is simply odd. It says an "under-the-radar" element to how McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in 2019 was that none of his quarterbacks could run and were forced to check it down to him. It fails to mention how McCaffrey was also the RB1 in 2018 when his QB was Cam Newton and he caught over 100 passes then as well. I'm scratching my head at his choice of Kenyon Drake as maybe being the most impacted RB by mobile QB play in 2020. I mean, he may be the best example of how a mobile QB can have a positive impact on RBs. In 2019 Drake began in Miami with Fitzpatrick where he averaged a little over 9 ppg (full ppr). Then he gets traded mid-season and his output more than doubled to over 19.5 ppg "despite" playing with the mobile Kyler Murray. And why would playing for Kyler Murray in 2020 have a big negative impact on the numbers he put up in 2019 while playing for, wait for it, Kyler Murray? Certainly seems like he's trying to push a narrative but I think it's backfiring.

Murray is yet another example of a mobile QB who not only throws to his RBs a lot but can help them put up big FF seasons. James Connor may be the jaggiest jag that's ever jagged yet he finished as RB5 overall in 2021. It isn't just Connor either, Drake and Edmunds both put up much better numbers with Murray than they did with non-running QBs during their careers. Nick Chubb just had his best FF season despite his QBs "stealing" 85 carries, over 400 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs, which is by far the most rushing production his QBs have ever had.

There are a lot of variables so it's impossible to say for sure what the impact is of any one of them, but IMO there certainly seems to be more evidence that a good, running QB is an overall positive on RB production than a negative. I've seen zero evidence that it's a doomsday scenario, especially for stud, bell cow RBs (which this article actually said as well). Do we really think guys like Henry and Chubb would drop like a rock if they played in Philly or Baltimore? Do we think Miles Sanders is going to be a top 5 RB now that he's no longer held back by Hurts?

Anywho, good chat but I'll let everyone get back to more specific ARich talk. Probably moot anyway with the JT drama, oof.

 

[Todem]

I think people are vastly overrating the "project" aspect of AR. Sure, he didn't get a ton of college experience, and sure, he could still use some polish. But the kid has the absolute right attitude and is low key very intelligent and has excellent instincts. All of this is on top of an athletic profile that we've never seen before, not just running but his arm is a freaking cannon too. He's going to be successful in year 1. NFL successful enough to be a top 15 QB. Fantasy successful enough to be a top 8 QB, maybe higher depending on when he takes over fully. In 2025, if he doesn't face a major injury, I think it's more likely than not he's the #1 QB in the league.

I compare him to Josh Allen. It took Allen 3 years to put it all together.

A.Rich is going struggle year 1 no doubt based on the college body of work.

He will need time to develop his accuracy and even more importantly his processing speed of the NFL game.

So no….I am in no way overrating the project aspect of this kid. He is an absolute project much like Josh Allen was.

 

[MTskibum]

I think people are vastly overrating the "project" aspect of AR. Sure, he didn't get a ton of college experience, and sure, he could still use some polish. But the kid has the absolute right attitude and is low key very intelligent and has excellent instincts. All of this is on top of an athletic profile that we've never seen before, not just running but his arm is a freaking cannon too. He's going to be successful in year 1. NFL successful enough to be a top 15 QB. Fantasy successful enough to be a top 8 QB, maybe higher depending on when he takes over fully. In 2025, if he doesn't face a major injury, I think it's more likely than not he's the #1 QB in the league.

I compare him to Josh Allen. It took Allen 3 years to put it all together.

A.Rich is going struggle year 1 no doubt based on the college body of work.

He will need time to develop his accuracy and even more importantly his processing speed of the NFL game.

So no….I am in no way overrating the project aspect of this kid. He is an absolute project much like Josh Allen was.

Josh Allen was a 32 game starter in college and for University of Wyoming he went 16-9 in games that he played the entire game of and was the only player of talent on those teams. I am from Wyoming and all 3 of my siblings are University of Wyoming grads. I heard tons of talk about Allen in college, he was the team during that timeframe. The only reason the NFL thought of him as a project is because everyone else around him was terrible.

Anthony richardson played on a team that had 5 other NFL draft picks(along with a few more that will go pro next year) and he only started 13 games in college. I do not think he is a good comparison.


There are have other QB's that have as few of starts as Richardson: Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Mark Sanchez, Cam Newton, Mitchell Trubinsky, and Trey Lance. Of these Trey Lance and Cam Newton are the best comparison from a stat perspective as they both had low passing yardage and high rushing yardage. Mark Sanchez also had low passing yardage, but he also had low rushing yardage.

 

[ffmail4me]

for those saying Richarson is a death blow to JT's value, I remind you what happened in Washington with RG3 and Alfred Morris during their rookie year together. RG3 ran the ball a ton too, but that threat just opened up lanes for Alfred, who had a MONSTER year (1600 yards and 13 TDs) and although I love Morris, JT probably has more talent and athleticism in his ding dong than Alfred did in his entire body. Don't bury JT just yet folks. Plus, if Richardson does struggle, don't you think they will want to rely on the all pro running back to help him???

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

for those saying Richarson is a death blow to JT's value, I remind you what happened in Washington with RG3 and Alfred Morris during their rookie year together. RG3 ran the ball a ton too, but that threat just opened up lanes for Alfred, who had a MONSTER year (1600 yards and 13 TDs) and although I love Morris, JT probably has more talent and athleticism in his ding dong than Alfred did in his entire body. Don't bury JT just yet folks. Plus, if Richardson does struggle, don't you think they will want to rely on the all pro running back to help him???

Rushing isn’t really the issue - RPOs can be great for RBs.

The issues are GL/RZ vulturing, lack of dump-offs (rushing QBs tend to run more when plays break down) and in the case of the 2023 Colts, a smaller pie from which ARich will take a slice out of.

They’re also likely to be one of the bottom offenses in terms of plays run, and ARich is going to have what, ~30% of their rushing goals?

I was being a little hyperbolic with my language about JT earlier, but anyone being Pollyanna about his prospects for 2023 should probably look a little closer.

I’d say RGIII/WAS RBs, and Fields/Monty are the exceptions.

 

[DeaLerZ]

for those saying Richarson is a death blow to JT's value, I remind you what happened in Washington with RG3 and Alfred Morris during their rookie year together. RG3 ran the ball a ton too, but that threat just opened up lanes for Alfred, who had a MONSTER year (1600 yards and 13 TDs) and although I love Morris, JT probably has more talent and athleticism in his ding dong than Alfred did in his entire body. Don't bury JT just yet folks. Plus, if Richardson does struggle, don't you think they will want to rely on the all pro running back to help him???

Rushing isn’t really the issue - RPOs can be great for RBs.

The issues are GL/RZ vulturing, lack of dump-offs (rushing QBs tend to run more when plays break down) and in the case of the 2023 Colts, a smaller pie from which ARich will take a slice out of.

They’re also likely to be one of the bottom offenses in terms of plays run, and ARich is going to have what, ~30% of their rushing goals?

I was being a little hyperbolic with my language about JT earlier, but anyone being Pollyanna about his prospects for 2023 should probably look a little closer.

I’d say RGIII/WAS RBs, and Fields/Monty are the exceptions.

This. RGIII wasn’t a better goal line back than Morris… he was a stick figure which is why he didn’t last

Richardson is insane, and could be the best goal line qB we have ever seen

 

[Todem]

I think people are vastly overrating the "project" aspect of AR. Sure, he didn't get a ton of college experience, and sure, he could still use some polish. But the kid has the absolute right attitude and is low key very intelligent and has excellent instincts. All of this is on top of an athletic profile that we've never seen before, not just running but his arm is a freaking cannon too. He's going to be successful in year 1. NFL successful enough to be a top 15 QB. Fantasy successful enough to be a top 8 QB, maybe higher depending on when he takes over fully. In 2025, if he doesn't face a major injury, I think it's more likely than not he's the #1 QB in the league.

I compare him to Josh Allen. It took Allen 3 years to put it all together.

A.Rich is going struggle year 1 no doubt based on the college body of work.

He will need time to develop his accuracy and even more importantly his processing speed of the NFL game.

So no….I am in no way overrating the project aspect of this kid. He is an absolute project much like Josh Allen was.

Josh Allen was a 32 game starter in college and for University of Wyoming he went 16-9 in games that he played the entire game of and was the only player of talent on those teams. I am from Wyoming and all 3 of my siblings are University of Wyoming grads. I heard tons of talk about Allen in college, he was the team during that timeframe. The only reason the NFL thought of him as a project is because everyone else around him was terrible.

Anthony richardson played on a team that had 5 other NFL draft picks(along with a few more that will go pro next year) and he only started 13 games in college. I do not think he is a good comparison.


There are have other QB's that have as few of starts as Richardson: Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Mark Sanchez, Cam Newton, Mitchell Trubinsky, and Trey Lance. Of these Trey Lance and Cam Newton are the best comparison from a stat perspective as they both had low passing yardage and high rushing yardage. Mark Sanchez also had low passing yardage, but he also had low rushing yardage.

I am not comparing their experience.....I am comparing their physical tools....Allen is a big strong, fleet of foot athlete. He was a great scrambler with a cannon of an arm.

It took him three years to develop into the ALL Pro he is today.

Anthony Richardson showed me each and every week at Florida he is not a day one starter in the NFL.....he is absolutely a project.

Kyler Murray is proving to be.......most likely a bust at the NFL level. Before his ACL he looked horrid last season and his size is a problem and NFL defenses figured that out.

Haskins was a bust.
Sanchez bust
Trubisnky bust
Lance - TBD (it ain’t looking good though)

Newton obviously went on to be a star.

I am not saying Richardson can’t either. The post I answered said him being a “project” is overstated. I contend it is not overstated and anyone thinking he will be a productive NFL passer day one is being foolish. He has a lot to learn. Do I think he can be a superstar? Absolutely.

 

[(HULK)]

I think people are vastly overrating the "project" aspect of AR. Sure, he didn't get a ton of college experience, and sure, he could still use some polish. But the kid has the absolute right attitude and is low key very intelligent and has excellent instincts. All of this is on top of an athletic profile that we've never seen before, not just running but his arm is a freaking cannon too. He's going to be successful in year 1. NFL successful enough to be a top 15 QB. Fantasy successful enough to be a top 8 QB, maybe higher depending on when he takes over fully. In 2025, if he doesn't face a major injury, I think it's more likely than not he's the #1 QB in the league.

I compare him to Josh Allen. It took Allen 3 years to put it all together.

A.Rich is going struggle year 1 no doubt based on the college body of work.

He will need time to develop his accuracy and even more importantly his processing speed of the NFL game.

So no….I am in no way overrating the project aspect of this kid. He is an absolute project much like Josh Allen was.

I really disagree. You can see him processing just fine on his college tape. He's going to acclimate much faster than Allen IMO.

 

[massraider]

I think people are vastly overrating the "project" aspect of AR. Sure, he didn't get a ton of college experience, and sure, he could still use some polish. But the kid has the absolute right attitude and is low key very intelligent and has excellent instincts. All of this is on top of an athletic profile that we've never seen before, not just running but his arm is a freaking cannon too. He's going to be successful in year 1. NFL successful enough to be a top 15 QB. Fantasy successful enough to be a top 8 QB, maybe higher depending on when he takes over fully. In 2025, if he doesn't face a major injury, I think it's more likely than not he's the #1 QB in the league.

Wish I was this optimistic about anything.

On board! Choo choo
to the moon.

 

[massraider]

What year was processing speed invented?

 

[(HULK)]

It's totally fine if people disagree. I see what I see though. Time will tell.

 

[Todem]

I think people are vastly overrating the "project" aspect of AR. Sure, he didn't get a ton of college experience, and sure, he could still use some polish. But the kid has the absolute right attitude and is low key very intelligent and has excellent instincts. All of this is on top of an athletic profile that we've never seen before, not just running but his arm is a freaking cannon too. He's going to be successful in year 1. NFL successful enough to be a top 15 QB. Fantasy successful enough to be a top 8 QB, maybe higher depending on when he takes over fully. In 2025, if he doesn't face a major injury, I think it's more likely than not he's the #1 QB in the league.

I compare him to Josh Allen. It took Allen 3 years to put it all together.

A.Rich is going struggle year 1 no doubt based on the college body of work.

He will need time to develop his accuracy and even more importantly his processing speed of the NFL game.

So no….I am in no way overrating the project aspect of this kid. He is an absolute project much like Josh Allen was.

I really disagree. You can see him processing just fine on his college tape. He's going to acclimate much faster than Allen IMO.

We will check back on this. I think his ceiling is extremely high like many in here. It will be an interesting season to see how he comes along.

 

[zamboni]

Has been stated several times upthread, but being a good fantasy QB and a bad NFL QB can co-exist together. Just have to hope that if he does struggle NFL-wise as expected, it isn't too bad to detract from his fantasy ceiling.

 

[Weebs210]

ROY incoming? I think so.

 

[Todem]

Has been stated several times upthread, but being a good fantasy QB and a bad NFL QB can co-exist together. Just have to hope that if he does struggle NFL-wise as expected, it isn't too bad to detract from his fantasy ceiling.

Totally get that. I am talking strictly irl

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Has been stated several times upthread, but being a good fantasy QB and a bad NFL QB can co-exist together. Just have to hope that if he does struggle NFL-wise as expected, it isn't too bad to detract from his fantasy ceiling.

Totally get that. I am talking strictly irl

I think you need the IRL NFL forums. We play FF ‘round these parts.

 

[Todem]

Has been stated several times upthread, but being a good fantasy QB and a bad NFL QB can co-exist together. Just have to hope that if he does struggle NFL-wise as expected, it isn't too bad to detract from his fantasy ceiling.

Totally get that. I am talking strictly irl

I think you need the IRL NFL forums. We play FF ‘round these parts.

Yeah so do I ......so for the record......I don’t think he is gonna be a great FF QB this year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

B-U-S-T!

I'll have a QB thread before Week 1 and I haven't posted once in this thread
It's felt like the Emperor's New Clothes for a while.
The talking heads must have a certain allotment of QBs for the TV and ratings and to fill the heads of fans for these teams that their dream of a franchise QB is just around the corner.
So many things wrong with how we arrived at this point and the Colts taking him at #4 overall, its hard to know where to start.

i'm not going to get into a tug of war with anyone, keep chirping and posting all the good vibes, biased reports, rose colored glasses, just keep posting your hopes and dreams because there isn't anything factual you have to lean on. No trophies, no SEC Championships, no College Playoffs so he didn't compete and win at the highest level but he's going to walk into Indianapolis and all systems are Go!?
Oh My Holy God have folks been sold a bad bill of good here.

You had to want to love this player or seek out all the good reports on him because a lot of average fans had no clue who he was after college football was over.
So most have never watched the guy play but have bought into the Mel Kiper's of the world who use jigsaw puzzle drafting to fill needs and desires of fans to play on emotions
I doubt most NFL scouts listen or read much of any of the NFL talking heads on TV or so called draft experts.

Good Luck!

As I said a couple months ago,
Redraft 2023 does not change for me, especially with disgruntled employees in the building right now

 

[Joe Bryant]

We’ll see what happens. I just don’t see ARich’s presence being good for JT at all in year 1.

Agreed.

 

[Faust]

Colts reporter Kevin Bowen said Colts QB Anthony Richardson “got all 18 starting reps” in Tuesday’s practice.

Fresh off surgery to correct his nasal septum, Richardson is breathing better and back in action. The rookie reportedly took all of the starting reps on Tuesday, as the drum beat for him to open as the Week 1 starter against the Jaguars only grows louder. Richardson continues to go as a high-end QB2 in fantasy drafts, which presents a buying window for fantasy managers who want in on the action. It’s possible that window closes next week when Richardson hits the field in a preseason matchup against the Bills.

 

[Faust]

Colts camp observations: Rough day for Anthony Richardson in return

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Colts camp observations: Rough day for Anthony Richardson in return

My takeaway is this

Richardson, wearing a strip on his nose, took every one of the first-team snaps and an extra six snaps in a live period

Bodes well for FF if he starts out of the gate.

 

[Faust]

James Larson @JamesLarson55
Anthony Richardson on the money in 7 on 7, put it where only Mo Allie Cox could reach

https://twitter.com/jameslarson55/status/1686390108747087873?s=21

 

[Faust]

NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters

“Anthony Richardson is impressive, and it doesn’t take more than a couple of throws to really understand why the Colts were comfortable taking a kid with 13 college starts fourth overall. But that the rookie, who is up to 255 pounds (11 pounds bigger than he was at the combine) and is carrying it easily, is a physical freak is news to no one. What Indy’s liked since drafting him is how quickly he’s picking things up. Through spring and early in the summer, he’s been able to take in play calls and spit them out in the huddle, which is something rookie quarterbacks often struggle with. That’s a good sign on Richardson’s capacity to learn.”

https://twitter.com/32beatwriters/status/1686532197136666624?s=21

 

[Faust]

NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters

“Anthony Richardson has struggled with his timing in certain spots — holding onto the ball too long on some plays, firing off-balance and early when there’s room to set his feet on others. The Colts knew plays like those were coming when they drafted Richardson.”

https://twitter.com/32beatwriters/status/1687088325008519169?s=21

 

[Faust]

Joel A. Erickson

Anthony Richardson followed up his first big day with another one. Explosive both on the ground and through the air today

https://twitter.com/joelaerickson/status/1688270658432634881?s=21