QB Anthony Richardson, IND (8 Viewers)

[Max Power]

If you hate Richardson just say it lmao. Anyway, I'm all aboard the hype train and will gladly take him at my pick if there in 1qb dynasty.

I don't hate Richardson. I do hate him in the first half of round 1 in a 1qb league. I wouldn't consider him until after maybe 1.09. His value is in his potential, but I'm not seeing it at the same level others are. The kid needs a lot of work in the passing game and I think owners are chasing the fantasy points rushing yards bring a QB.

An argument can be made that he is worth a swing over a second or third tier RB/WR, but I'll be on the other side of that argument. Anyone can bust, but with ARich its going to take several years to see what he is and I don't know what that fantasy output is going to look like.

If we want to use Justin Fields as a comparison... in my 2021 1QB rookie draft I ended up with Fields in the middle of round 2. 2.07 actually. The guy was unstartable for a year and a half and I didn't have a ton of faith in the times I did start him. This year he is being projected a low end QB1. Rushing numbers are expected to go down and passing up.

But what is Fields actual value right now? If 2023 version of Justin Fields was in this rookie draft, where does he get picked? Is that production going in the top 6 picks? I don't know. As a Fields owner I'd trade him for a top10 pick in this draft,

The craziest part about all this is that Justin Fields is still on a short leash in Chicago. If he doesn't show an improvement in his passing game, the Bears very well could move on from him in 2024. Then he moves forward with cast off value, which may not be much if we're looking long term investment.

point being, I can deal with this when I'm using a mid second on this scenario. I think its crazy to see owners taking Richardson at 1.04 knowing what they are getting into.

If the 2023 version of Fields was in this draft, he'd be my 1.3, and 1.2 would be arguable. I haven't seen a single fantasy rank of Fields lower than QB6 (I have him QB4 personally) and you've gotten a gem getting him for 2.7 2 years ago. I think your league mates would be insane not to trade for him if you are willing to accept just a top-10 pick. I would also firmly disagree Fields is on a short leash. They just doubled down on him. If he's on a short leash so are 20+ other starting QBs.

Of course, I'd argue Richardson is 1.5 right now, but I certainly have an affinity for high-end running QBs, and this isn't the strongest draft class in my eyes, as so many guys landed in muddled spots. I have a real hard time seeing Richardson having less than 750 yards rushing with his profile and the current staff. I'm not saying he'll be Fields/Lamar, but he should be the next best thing yards wise, and its certainly possible (probable) that he'll also be getting the same bunny TDs Hurts got.

Side note: I think if Nagy hadn't been the HC in 2021, Fields would have been a fantasy asset as a rookie, but Nagy was fighting for his job, and didn't want to develop a rookie, and we saw where that got him, though Nagy is probably happier being the OC in KC.

I can see Fields having more value than I am giving him credit for, but I'm not sold on him as a long term QB. When Chicago landed that first overall pick there was still some talk of taking a QB and trading Fields. This class didn't have a Burrow or Lawrence, so I think it was an easier call for Chicago to stick with Fields and get him weapons. An honest analysis of Fields as a QB was showing he struggles with his progressions and resorted to running too soon and often. I think he has the skills to develop, but as a Bears homer as well, its constant pessimism when it comes to QBs.

One of the rumored reasons the Bears were ok with staying with Fields another year is that they acquired a lot of draft capital in future drafts should he not take a step forward this year. Bears stumble and Panthers don't improve, they are looking at two top 10-15 picks,

Good post though, I may have to explore that trade market a bit more.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

If you hate Richardson just say it lmao. Anyway, I'm all aboard the hype train and will gladly take him at my pick if there in 1qb dynasty.

I don't hate Richardson. I do hate him in the first half of round 1 in a 1qb league. I wouldn't consider him until after maybe 1.09. His value is in his potential, but I'm not seeing it at the same level others are. The kid needs a lot of work in the passing game and I think owners are chasing the fantasy points rushing yards bring a QB.

An argument can be made that he is worth a swing over a second or third tier RB/WR, but I'll be on the other side of that argument. Anyone can bust, but with ARich its going to take several years to see what he is and I don't know what that fantasy output is going to look like.

If we want to use Justin Fields as a comparison... in my 2021 1QB rookie draft I ended up with Fields in the middle of round 2. 2.07 actually. The guy was unstartable for a year and a half and I didn't have a ton of faith in the times I did start him. This year he is being projected a low end QB1. Rushing numbers are expected to go down and passing up.

But what is Fields actual value right now? If 2023 version of Justin Fields was in this rookie draft, where does he get picked? Is that production going in the top 6 picks? I don't know. As a Fields owner I'd trade him for a top10 pick in this draft,

The craziest part about all this is that Justin Fields is still on a short leash in Chicago. If he doesn't show an improvement in his passing game, the Bears very well could move on from him in 2024. Then he moves forward with cast off value, which may not be much if we're looking long term investment.

point being, I can deal with this when I'm using a mid second on this scenario. I think its crazy to see owners taking Richardson at 1.04 knowing what they are getting into.

If the 2023 version of Fields was in this draft, he'd be my 1.3, and 1.2 would be arguable. I haven't seen a single fantasy rank of Fields lower than QB6 (I have him QB4 personally) and you've gotten a gem getting him for 2.7 2 years ago. I think your league mates would be insane not to trade for him if you are willing to accept just a top-10 pick. I would also firmly disagree Fields is on a short leash. They just doubled down on him. If he's on a short leash so are 20+ other starting QBs.

Fields startup ADP is behind 6 of this year's rookies, FWIW.

This seems odd to me because he has been rising in rookie drafts. At least the ones I have been watching. He is going in the 1.4 to 1.6 range. You better get to the 1.5 if you want to draft A. Rich. Heck, you can go to post on this board and view the 1QB drafts that are posted and see the rise for yourself. It's about 6 posts below this one since I just posted here.

That post is about Justin Fields, not ARich.

 

[massraider]

If you hate Richardson just say it lmao. Anyway, I'm all aboard the hype train and will gladly take him at my pick if there in 1qb dynasty.

Way to take a crap on a good discussion @FreeBaGeL is one of the most even keeled rational guys here.

 

[finfansteve]

If you hate Richardson just say it lmao. Anyway, I'm all aboard the hype train and will gladly take him at my pick if there in 1qb dynasty.

I don't hate Richardson. I do hate him in the first half of round 1 in a 1qb league. I wouldn't consider him until after maybe 1.09. His value is in his potential, but I'm not seeing it at the same level others are. The kid needs a lot of work in the passing game and I think owners are chasing the fantasy points rushing yards bring a QB.

An argument can be made that he is worth a swing over a second or third tier RB/WR, but I'll be on the other side of that argument. Anyone can bust, but with ARich its going to take several years to see what he is and I don't know what that fantasy output is going to look like.

If we want to use Justin Fields as a comparison... in my 2021 1QB rookie draft I ended up with Fields in the middle of round 2. 2.07 actually. The guy was unstartable for a year and a half and I didn't have a ton of faith in the times I did start him. This year he is being projected a low end QB1. Rushing numbers are expected to go down and passing up.

But what is Fields actual value right now? If 2023 version of Justin Fields was in this rookie draft, where does he get picked? Is that production going in the top 6 picks? I don't know. As a Fields owner I'd trade him for a top10 pick in this draft,

The craziest part about all this is that Justin Fields is still on a short leash in Chicago. If he doesn't show an improvement in his passing game, the Bears very well could move on from him in 2024. Then he moves forward with cast off value, which may not be much if we're looking long term investment.

point being, I can deal with this when I'm using a mid second on this scenario. I think its crazy to see owners taking Richardson at 1.04 knowing what they are getting into.

If the 2023 version of Fields was in this draft, he'd be my 1.3, and 1.2 would be arguable. I haven't seen a single fantasy rank of Fields lower than QB6 (I have him QB4 personally) and you've gotten a gem getting him for 2.7 2 years ago. I think your league mates would be insane not to trade for him if you are willing to accept just a top-10 pick. I would also firmly disagree Fields is on a short leash. They just doubled down on him. If he's on a short leash so are 20+ other starting QBs.

Fields startup ADP is behind 6 of this year's rookies, FWIW.

Who are the six rookies he’s behind?

 

[Dinkle Heimer]

If we want to use Justin Fields as a comparison...

I feel like everyone on the opposite ends of the Anthony Richardson debate are talking past each other...

Anyone drafting Anthony Richardson in the first round of dynasty isn't using Fields as an apples to apples comparison. They are using what Fields did in his second year in the 30 year killing QB field of Chicago Bears as a floor. It's hard to argue that Fields had a better setup than what Richardson is going into as a rookie.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

It’s a boom or bust pick no doubt. He has freakish athleticism….undenaible.

I am sitting at 1.3 this year in my upcoming 12 team start 1 QB PPR Dynasty and I view him as a potential generational pick or one that can easily fall on its face.

But at 1.3…..why be safe. I don’t see many potential generational talents in that spot.

Honestly my two highest rated for that pick are ARich and Flowers based on pure unadulterated talent.

This has been my viewpoint. Good post. If you had Fields would you still pull the trigger at 1.3? I also have invested in 2024 picks which means I have to consider that class of candidates.

I have Fields, Jimmy G, and S. Howell pretty sure I won't keep all three. No way to move back so it's either A.Rich, JSN, or Gibbs. Rebuilding (progressive struggle) team. I'm projecting that it will come down to A. Rich and JSN. I'm pretty sure what I'm doing but this is the kind of decision teams that have not drafted yet have to make. I moved up last year to take Ken Walker last season and have Jason Meyers on the squad (a lot of Seahawks) if I take JSN. I need running backs and wide receivers but not desperate at either but need is still needed if that makes sense. It has been a fun debate and this thread has been very helpful from both sides of the viewpoints. I have enjoyed the discussion on both ends and has made me think from both points of view. I will be on the clock Tuesday morning so my final decision will be made then.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you had Fields would you still pull the trigger at 1.3? I

I have Fields, and took ARich at 1.02 on Friday.

It is SF though, so…

 

[efactor]

Wasn't in position to draft Richardson this year and didn't really need a QB so didn't give him much thought. BUT was offered a deal that was too good to pass up for him, but now have to figure out what to do with him. Love his upside of course, but better to sell while the hype is high or wait it out? Decisions, decisions.

Like his situation in Indy. WRs not great, but much better than what Fields was given in Chicago and having Taylor should open up the running lanes for him. OL was crappy last year, but they have some talent there, so at least possible they are middle of the pack.

 

[Weebs210]

Wasn't in position to draft Richardson this year and didn't really need a QB so didn't give him much thought. BUT was offered a deal that was too good to pass up for him, but now have to figure out what to do with him. Love his upside of course, but better to sell while the hype is high or wait it out? Decisions, decisions.

Like his situation in Indy. WRs not great, but much better than what Fields was given in Chicago and having Taylor should open up the running lanes for him. OL was crappy last year, but they have some talent there, so at least possible they are middle of the pack.

It just really depends on your situation. If you have a top 3 dynasty QB I would try to sell. If you do not I think it's worth the risk to see if he hits his absurd upside. It sounds like you at least got him for a decent price and didn't overpay which makes rolling the dice easier.

 

[ghostguy123]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

 

[dipandglide]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

In SF? Sure. In 1qb as a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick? Sure. In 1 qb as a top 5 rookie pick? No way.

Lamar Jackson is currently the #43 overall player in dynasty, about equivalent to this year's 1.05 rookie pick. Justin Fields is the #58 overall player, about equivalent to this year's 1.07 pick.

Lamar is pretty much Richardson's upside, so you're looking at a guy that has to basically hit his upside (again, much less likely IMO than most people think) just to be worth a little bit less than the pick you spent on him if you're drafting him with the 1.02 or 1.03 pick.

Justin Fields just rushed for the 2nd most yards by a QB in NFL history, and in 1qb dynasty he's currently ranked just behind Rachaad White, who was a backup this year that fell into a possible starting job.

If you're taking him the 2nd or 3rd round of a rookie draft where these guys usually go then I like him for his upside. But the probability his value ever exceeds the 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick in a 1qb league is just so low he has to exceed even our wildest dreams to do that. Even if he comes out and runs for 1000 yards and throws for 25 TDs while looking pretty good as a passer (all of those extremely unlikely individually, much less together) you still probably wouldn't be able to get back next year's 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick for him in a trade.

By drafting him that high you're basically buying him at (or maybe even above) his upside. Nevermind that he's coming in with the most work to do to hit his upside as any QB prospect in recent history.

 

[dipandglide]

It depends on your QB situation in a start one league. I don't blame anyone taking Arich 1.05 if they're starting Cousins, Arog, or the like.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

In SF? Sure. In 1qb as a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick? Sure. In 1 qb as a top 5 rookie pick? No way.

Lamar Jackson is currently the #43 overall player in dynasty, about equivalent to this year's 1.05 rookie pick. Justin Fields is the #58 overall player, about equivalent to this year's 1.07 pick.

Lamar is pretty much Richardson's upside, so you're looking at a guy that has to basically hit his upside (again, much less likely IMO than most people think) just to be worth a little bit less than the pick you spent on him if you're drafting him with the 1.02 or 1.03 pick.

Justin Fields just rushed for the 2nd most yards by a QB in NFL history, and in 1qb dynasty he's currently ranked just behind Rachaad White, who was a backup this year that fell into a possible starting job.

If you're taking him the 2nd or 3rd round of a rookie draft where these guys usually go then I like him for his upside. But the probability his value ever exceeds the 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick in a 1qb league is just so low he has to exceed even our wildest dreams to do that. Even if he comes out and runs for 1000 yards and throws for 25 TDs while looking pretty good as a passer (all of those extremely unlikely individually, much less together) you still probably wouldn't be able to get back next year's 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick for him in a trade.

By drafting him that high you're basically buying him at (or maybe even above) his upside. Nevermind that he's coming in with the most work to do to hit his upside as any QB prospect in recent history.

I'm not even thinking of trading him if he runs for 1000 and throws for 25 touchdowns. And he is going in the range of 1.4 and 1.7 in 1QB right now. I get you won't draft him but many are (drafting him) right now in that range. He will never make it to the 2nd round at this point. And if he does then you got great value. If you believe that and got him later then you should trade him right now while his value is as high as it is.

 

[dipandglide]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

In SF? Sure. In 1qb as a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick? Sure. In 1 qb as a top 5 rookie pick? No way.

Lamar Jackson is currently the #43 overall player in dynasty, about equivalent to this year's 1.05 rookie pick. Justin Fields is the #58 overall player, about equivalent to this year's 1.07 pick.

Lamar is pretty much Richardson's upside, so you're looking at a guy that has to basically hit his upside (again, much less likely IMO than most people think) just to be worth a little bit less than the pick you spent on him if you're drafting him with the 1.02 or 1.03 pick.

Justin Fields just rushed for the 2nd most yards by a QB in NFL history, and in 1qb dynasty he's currently ranked just behind Rachaad White, who was a backup this year that fell into a possible starting job.

If you're taking him the 2nd or 3rd round of a rookie draft where these guys usually go then I like him for his upside. But the probability his value ever exceeds the 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick in a 1qb league is just so low he has to exceed even our wildest dreams to do that. Even if he comes out and runs for 1000 yards and throws for 25 TDs while looking pretty good as a passer (all of those extremely unlikely individually, much less together) you still probably wouldn't be able to get back next year's 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick for him in a trade.

By drafting him that high you're basically buying him at (or maybe even above) his upside. Nevermind that he's coming in with the most work to do to hit his upside as any QB prospect in recent history.

Arich is 21 years old. Lamar is 26. The ceiling may be Lamar, but it's a 21-year-old Lamar, not a 26-year-old Lamar. BIG DIFFERENCE.

 

[travdogg]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

In SF? Sure. In 1qb as a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick? Sure. In 1 qb as a top 5 rookie pick? No way.

Lamar Jackson is currently the #43 overall player in dynasty, about equivalent to this year's 1.05 rookie pick. Justin Fields is the #58 overall player, about equivalent to this year's 1.07 pick.

Lamar is pretty much Richardson's upside, so you're looking at a guy that has to basically hit his upside (again, much less likely IMO than most people think) just to be worth a little bit less than the pick you spent on him if you're drafting him with the 1.02 or 1.03 pick.

Justin Fields just rushed for the 2nd most yards by a QB in NFL history, and in 1qb dynasty he's currently ranked just behind Rachaad White, who was a backup this year that fell into a possible starting job.

If you're taking him the 2nd or 3rd round of a rookie draft where these guys usually go then I like him for his upside. But the probability his value ever exceeds the 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick in a 1qb league is just so low he has to exceed even our wildest dreams to do that. Even if he comes out and runs for 1000 yards and throws for 25 TDs while looking pretty good as a passer (all of those extremely unlikely individually, much less together) you still probably wouldn't be able to get back next year's 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick for him in a trade.

By drafting him that high you're basically buying him at (or maybe even above) his upside. Nevermind that he's coming in with the most work to do to hit his upside as any QB prospect in recent history.

If Lamar is worth the 1.5, and Fields is worth the 1.7, that tells me people are greatly overvaluing rookie picks, and undervaluing difference making QBs. I've got both Lamar and Fields around 30-35 overall.

Someone valuing Rachaad White over Fields in any format, is out of their mind. I'd have Fields a good 3 rounds ahead of White in a startup. I'm starting to think people are way too high on Johnston/Flowers, I couldn't deal those guys fast enough for a Fields or Jackson.

Richardson might not be on those guys level, but its possible he is. Prospects with this level of athleticism are maybe every 3-5 years or so, and it feels like a subset of people are all too happy to settle for ok players at WR or RB, then a potential stud at QB.

 

[dipandglide]

The Mahomes/Allen/Hurts edge has been huge the last few years. Finding an edge at QB/TE goes a long way.

 

[Max Power]

The Mahomes/Allen/Hurts edge has been huge the last few years. Finding an edge at QB/TE goes a long way.

Sort of speaks to the draft capital issue though... Mahomes/Allen/Hurts were all 2nd and third Rd picks.

 

[Max Power]

Justin Fields just rushed for the 2nd most yards by a QB in NFL history,

I feel this is the most glossed over part of the conversation when talking scrambling QB value.

Fields isn't going to repeat this. Almost 20% of those yards came on 3 runs alone. He had 3 runs over 60 yards. 6 runs over 39 yards.

A lot when right for him and wrong for the defenses on those days. I'm very skeptical it can be repeated. And I'm a guy who would love to be wrong about this.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

In SF? Sure. In 1qb as a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick? Sure. In 1 qb as a top 5 rookie pick? No way.

Lamar Jackson is currently the #43 overall player in dynasty, about equivalent to this year's 1.05 rookie pick. Justin Fields is the #58 overall player, about equivalent to this year's 1.07 pick.

Lamar is pretty much Richardson's upside, so you're looking at a guy that has to basically hit his upside (again, much less likely IMO than most people think) just to be worth a little bit less than the pick you spent on him if you're drafting him with the 1.02 or 1.03 pick.

Justin Fields just rushed for the 2nd most yards by a QB in NFL history, and in 1qb dynasty he's currently ranked just behind Rachaad White, who was a backup this year that fell into a possible starting job.

If you're taking him the 2nd or 3rd round of a rookie draft where these guys usually go then I like him for his upside. But the probability his value ever exceeds the 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick in a 1qb league is just so low he has to exceed even our wildest dreams to do that. Even if he comes out and runs for 1000 yards and throws for 25 TDs while looking pretty good as a passer (all of those extremely unlikely individually, much less together) you still probably wouldn't be able to get back next year's 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick for him in a trade.

By drafting him that high you're basically buying him at (or maybe even above) his upside. Nevermind that he's coming in with the most work to do to hit his upside as any QB prospect in recent history.

If Lamar is worth the 1.5, and Fields is worth the 1.7, that tells me people are greatly overvaluing rookie picks, and undervaluing difference making QBs. I've got both Lamar and Fields around 30-35 overall.

Someone valuing Rachaad White over Fields in any format, is out of their mind. I'd have Fields a good 3 rounds ahead of White in a startup. I'm starting to think people are way too high on Johnston/Flowers, I couldn't deal those guys fast enough for a Fields or Jackson.

Richardson might not be on those guys level, but its possible he is. Prospects with this level of athleticism are maybe every 3-5 years or so, and it feels like a subset of people are all too happy to settle for ok players at WR or RB, then a potential stud at QB.

This is exactly my dilemma.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

Justin Fields just rushed for the 2nd most yards by a QB in NFL history,

I feel this is the most glossed over part of the conversation when talking scrambling QB value.

Fields isn't going to repeat this. Almost 20% of those yards came on 3 runs alone. He had 3 runs over 60 yards. 6 runs over 39 yards.

A lot when right for him and wrong for the defenses on those days. I'm very skeptical it can be repeated. And I'm a guy who would love to be wrong about this.

Nor do the Bears want him to. But my view is A.Rich could run it a lot more this season and next while he figures it all out. Fields and the Bears want a more balanced offense and that is okay if you are a Fields owner. You have to expect the QB to not want to rush the ball as much his whole career because your chances of a long career go down and therefore your ability to earn goes down and maybe the fewer rings you have a shot at. Sometimes your wants and needs are different. Fields will still run but your hope with Fields is he does figure it out and you have the best of both worlds kind of like Hurts this season. Lamar Jackson is no slouch even today. Jackson will most likely attempt to throw more this season as well. I think he can still run enough though to be valid. The league is heading in this direction with this style of quarterback. We will just have to wait and see how the Bears and Fields do this season but for A.Rich the formula could still hold true as he learns the NFL. He could run a lot more in years one and two as did the others we discussed. At least it feels that way.

 

[ghostguy123]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

A lot of players with "high ceilings" have come and gone and never got anywhere near those ceilings.
Everyone talks about his ceiling as though it's likely. It's not.
People don't seem to talk to often about what he is, a super athletic guy who isn't a very good QB.
Will be be? Maybe.
I know this though, if he sprains a knee or something he's the worst QB in the league until he can run again.

 

[ghostguy123]

This thread sure makes me feel fortunate to have gotten him at pick 12 though.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

A lot of players with "high ceilings" have come and gone and never got anywhere near those ceilings.
Everyone talks about his ceiling as though it's likely. It's not.
People don't seem to talk to often about what he is, a super athletic guy who isn't a very good QB.
Will be be? Maybe.
I know this though, if he sprains a knee or something he's the worst QB in the league until he can run again.

That goes without saying take away what he does best and he becomes a lesser QB.

 

[dipandglide]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

A lot of players with "high ceilings" have come and gone and never got anywhere near those ceilings.
Everyone talks about his ceiling as though it's likely. It's not.
People don't seem to talk to often about what he is, a super athletic guy who isn't a very good QB.
Will be be? Maybe.
I know this though, if he sprains a knee or something he's the worst QB in the league until he can run again.

Translation, the sky is blue

I didn't know we always write off players with high ceilings. Thanks for the tip!

 

[dipandglide]

This thread sure makes me feel fortunate to have gotten him at pick 12 though.

Lucky you!

 

[osubuckeyeman]

This thread sure makes me feel fortunate to have gotten him at pick 12 though.

Agreed. The earlier rookie drafts could have reaped you some bargain values and really if you are not a believer or not wanting to see what he could be ceiling wise then I think I would be shopping him right now. You should be able to reap a pretty high reward and I'm not against that especially if you are a rebuilder and you feel he is overrated. Take advantage. In rookie drafts, I would only have Bijan, JSN, and maybe Gibbs ahead of him. Gibbs worries me a little but I most likely would lean toward Gibb's upside over A. Rich's upside. Montgomery's mystery injury really pushes the needle toward Gibbs.

 

[ghostguy123]

He has a high ceiling.
Nobody talks about his super low floor

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He has a high ceiling.
Nobody talks about his super low floor

Yes, we do. Often. This topic is littered with it. We just don’t dwell on the negative. Acknowledge the potential & gauge risk vs reward.

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Counterpoint: no, he’s fairly rated.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

He has a high ceiling.
Nobody talks about his super low floor

Yes, we do. Often. This topic is littered with it. We just don’t dwell on the negative. Acknowledge the potential & gauge risk vs reward.

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Counterpoint: no, he’s fairly rated.

Have to agree with this first point and really the second. I fully acknowledge the risk and would be happy with taking the risk if he failed miserably I would not like it but would know I was happy with the risk knowing that when I'm drafting players I will lean to what I feel he can be or what he can do well or if he has shown me he can get the ceiling I think he can get to then it is defiantly worth the risk. The tape shows bad misses and accuracy and it can get ugly. He also has shown good footwork, pocket presence, and movement in the pocket to avoid the rush and deliver the ball. The dude has a hose as well he can really sling it. He has shown good and bad. A lot of bad maybe even more bad but he has shown he can progress as well. The God-given athletic ability is also off the chart. I don't have blue and white rose color glasses though he could fail miserably and go down in flames. I'm just okay with the risk and I feel he can get to his ceiling. I do worry about Irsay interfering and as what has been articulated well in this thread his ability to stay healthy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

One other note about his alleged super low floor: the second he was picked 1.04, that negated my concerns about that floor.

The draft capital of a top 4 NFL draft pick makes his floor much safer. There’s little chance of his getting benched and they’ll do everything they can to get him reps.

The talk about his floor was for back when he was considered to be a late 1st or early 2nd, and before he went to a team coached by a dude who excels at developing rushing QBs.

 

[Dez]

One other note about his alleged super low floor: the second he was picked 1.04, that negated my concerns about that floor.

The draft capital of a top 4 NFL draft pick makes his floor much safer. There’s little chance of his getting benched and they’ll do everything they can to get him reps.

The talk about his floor was for back when he was considered to be a late 1st or early 2nd, and before he went to a team coached by a dude who excels at developing rushing QBs.

2 words Trey Lance.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

2 words Trey Lance.

Got 2 years and is still considered “in the mix” by the FF community.

He just went in the late 3rd of a SF startup draft I’m in (3.14, 46th overall)

I included him in a package to get TLaw last month.

Thanks so much for proving my point: ARich will hold his value for at least a few years. Lance is arguably the floorest of floors and he’s STILL valuable.

In that light, ARich is the safest pick on the board after Bijan. He could fall on his face for 2 years, get hurt and you’d still get a 1st+ for him.

 

[dipandglide]

Imagine writing Lance off now when he's worth less than Will Levis ffs

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Imagine writing Lance off now when he's worth less than Will Levis ffs

I’m higher on ARich than Lance.

Levia, notsomuch

 

[dipandglide]

Imagine writing Lance off now when he's worth less than Will Levis ffs

I’m higher on ARich than Lance.

Levia, notsomuch

Me too. The point is Lance is being written off. @Dez post says it all you need to know

 

[efactor]

Imagine writing Lance off now when he's worth less than Will Levis ffs

I’m higher on ARich than Lance.

Levia, notsomuch

Yeah, Levis being more valuable than Lance cracks me up. Levis is almost a year older than Lance and was just drafted in the 2nd round by what looks like a bad offensive team (outside of Henry). The new toy is always more desired I guess.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Imagine writing Lance off now when he's worth less than Will Levis ffs

I’m higher on ARich than Lance.

Levia, notsomuch

Me too. The point is Lance is being written off. @Dez post says it all you need to know

Tbh I’m kinda writing off Lance too.

He could have value down the road. I’m out.

 

[dipandglide]

Imagine writing Lance off now when he's worth less than Will Levis ffs

I’m higher on ARich than Lance.

Levia, notsomuch

Me too. The point is Lance is being written off. @Dez post says it all you need to know

Tbh I’m kinda writing off Lance too.

He could have value down the road. I’m out.

Can't hate on that. I'll take swings for what Lance is going for right now. Lots of variance of course

Back to Arich!

 

[travdogg]

One other note about his alleged super low floor: the second he was picked 1.04, that negated my concerns about that floor.

The draft capital of a top 4 NFL draft pick makes his floor much safer. There’s little chance of his getting benched and they’ll do everything they can to get him reps.

The talk about his floor was for back when he was considered to be a late 1st or early 2nd, and before he went to a team coached by a dude who excels at developing rushing QBs.

2 words Trey Lance.

In Lance's defense, pretty much any player who only starts 4 games in 2 seasons is gonna lose a lot of value. If Bijan Robinson plays 4 games over the next 2 years, most people will be off the bandwagon.

Unlike Lance, Richardson will start week 1 of his rookie year, and has job security that Lance didn't. He's also a better prospect than Lance was in my opinion.

 

[Todem]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

In SF? Sure. In 1qb as a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick? Sure. In 1 qb as a top 5 rookie pick? No way.

Lamar Jackson is currently the #43 overall player in dynasty, about equivalent to this year's 1.05 rookie pick. Justin Fields is the #58 overall player, about equivalent to this year's 1.07 pick.

Lamar is pretty much Richardson's upside, so you're looking at a guy that has to basically hit his upside (again, much less likely IMO than most people think) just to be worth a little bit less than the pick you spent on him if you're drafting him with the 1.02 or 1.03 pick.

Justin Fields just rushed for the 2nd most yards by a QB in NFL history, and in 1qb dynasty he's currently ranked just behind Rachaad White, who was a backup this year that fell into a possible starting job.

If you're taking him the 2nd or 3rd round of a rookie draft where these guys usually go then I like him for his upside. But the probability his value ever exceeds the 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick in a 1qb league is just so low he has to exceed even our wildest dreams to do that. Even if he comes out and runs for 1000 yards and throws for 25 TDs while looking pretty good as a passer (all of those extremely unlikely individually, much less together) you still probably wouldn't be able to get back next year's 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick for him in a trade.

By drafting him that high you're basically buying him at (or maybe even above) his upside. Nevermind that he's coming in with the most work to do to hit his upside as any QB prospect in recent history.

I have been in deep thought and this post solidifies my thinking that he would be a reach at 1.3

I drafted Lamar Jackson in Round three when he was a rookie (we traded him before the 2022 season began) and we also had drafted Deshaun Watson way back when in round 3.

So sitting at 1.3 I feel like the value needs to used on either my best WR or RB left on the board…..and I have a 1.12 and 2.3. QB’s will be there at 2.3 that may produce even better with less risk.

I am not a fan of this years draft class….it’s quite weak IMO.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

I'll just say it. Richardson is overrated right now.

Why?

I mean, he was more attractive before he went 4th overall and got draft capital. But the ceiling is undeniable, no?

In SF? Sure. In 1qb as a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick? Sure. In 1 qb as a top 5 rookie pick? No way.

Lamar Jackson is currently the #43 overall player in dynasty, about equivalent to this year's 1.05 rookie pick. Justin Fields is the #58 overall player, about equivalent to this year's 1.07 pick.

Lamar is pretty much Richardson's upside, so you're looking at a guy that has to basically hit his upside (again, much less likely IMO than most people think) just to be worth a little bit less than the pick you spent on him if you're drafting him with the 1.02 or 1.03 pick.

Justin Fields just rushed for the 2nd most yards by a QB in NFL history, and in 1qb dynasty he's currently ranked just behind Rachaad White, who was a backup this year that fell into a possible starting job.

If you're taking him the 2nd or 3rd round of a rookie draft where these guys usually go then I like him for his upside. But the probability his value ever exceeds the 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick in a 1qb league is just so low he has to exceed even our wildest dreams to do that. Even if he comes out and runs for 1000 yards and throws for 25 TDs while looking pretty good as a passer (all of those extremely unlikely individually, much less together) you still probably wouldn't be able to get back next year's 1.02 or 1.03 rookie pick for him in a trade.

By drafting him that high you're basically buying him at (or maybe even above) his upside. Nevermind that he's coming in with the most work to do to hit his upside as any QB prospect in recent history.

I have been in deep thought and this post solidifies my thinking that he would be a reach at 1.3

I drafted Lamar Jackson in Round three when he was a rookie (we traded him before the 2022 season began) and we also had drafted Deshaun Watson way back when in round 3.

So sitting at 1.3 I feel like the value needs to used on either my best WR or RB left on the board…..and I have a 1.12 and 2.3. QB’s will be there at 2.3 that may produce even better with less risk.

I am not a fan of this years draft class….it’s quite weak IMO.

I'm not drafting him at 1.3 either but if I was sitting at 1.4 I would be smashing the button for him. JSN is the only player I value over him. Maybe, J. Gibbs but I would be thinking on that pick a bit longer. I'm also set up well for 2024 which gives me a ton of options in that class including the top QBs in that class... I also do not believe this is the most strong of classes but it's still good enough. However, he might be the highest-upside player In this class and there is zero chance he makes it out of the first round at this point yet the third round. You would be extremely lucky if he makes it to the 1.9. I have not seen him go past the 1.7 in any of the recent rookie drafts in 1QB. It's funny how ADP has changed. I see Addison falling more in drafts and A. Rich rising.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

Well, A.Rich went 1.5. in my draft. I'm very happy I did not move back to 1.6. which was a consideration but I would have missed out on both JSN and A.Rich.

1.1 B. Robinson
1.2 J.Gibbs
1.3 JSN (Me)
1.4 Addison
1.5 A. Rich

 

[Weebs210]

The best part about drafting a rich is naming your team "get rich or die tanking"

 

[Faust]

Colts OTA Notebook Week 3: Up And Down Day For Anthony Richardson

 

[Faust]

Dov Kleiman @NFL_DovKleiman

Video: #Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson hit a couple of bullseyes at OTAs today while on the move.

Richardson is already getting 1st team reps at practice, as he's looking to open the season as QB1.

( @brettbensley)

https://twitter.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/1664735749885837315?s=21

 

[Faust]

Why Colts’ O-Line Will Be Most Important for Anthony Richardson

 

[Faust]

Nate Atkins @NateAtkins_
Anthony Richardson just had his “wow” throw of the day — a 60-yard post Bomb in 7-on-7 for an in-stride TD to Vyncent Smith.

https://twitter.com/nateatkins_/status/1668697529326657536?s=21

Nate Atkins @NateAtkins_
#Colts practice observations:

- Rough day for QBs. Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew combined for 2 completions, 1 INT and maybe 7 air yards in 11-on-11
- Richardson worked with the 1's
- Jaylon Jones flashed on a couple plays, including a pick
- EJ Speed also had an INT

https://twitter.com/nateatkins_/status/1668703202286485510?s=21

Stephen Holder @HolderStephen
Colts LB Zaire Franklin on facing Anthony Richardson: "Even in the walkthrough against him, when (number) 5's in there, you've just got to be aware. It's just a whole other element to an offense that you don't necessarily have to think about with more of a traditional QB."

https://twitter.com/holderstephen/status/1668732576721170432?s=21

Stephen Holder @HolderStephen
Kind of obvious, but this reality is one reason the Colts have some room for optimism on offense in '23. They have the element of surprise/uncertainty and that can open some things up. Even on a day like today, when AR wasn't sharp in practice, big plays are still possible.

https://twitter.com/holderstephen/status/1668735549589401600?s=21

Stephen Holder @HolderStephen
To be clear, neither Richardson nor Minshew were sharp today. A lot of misfires from both. Richardson's best pass was a deep post in 11 on 11 that was on the money, but ultimately dropped.

https://twitter.com/holderstephen/status/1668736016188858368?s=21

 

[Faust]

Stacey Dales' progress report on Anthony Richardson at Colts minicamp

 

[Faust]

Nate Atkins @NateAtkins_
One thing Kenny Moore II's noticed about Anthony Richardson so far is how early he's in the building studying notes.

"He wants it."

https://twitter.com/nateatkins_/status/1668661688705400834?s=21