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QB Anthony Richardson, IND (2 Viewers)

I just picked him up in my first FantasyPros Championship draft @ 10.12.

12th QB off the board, as I was the last holdout without a QB. After getting screwed a little in the last 2 rounds with an incredible 12 RB’s going between the 9th and 10th round picks and I kinda wanted a couple of those RB’s(noted for next draft). I now feel like should have waited for another lap of the board.

Not sure how I feel after pulling the trigger. I now feel like I have to pick up Geno, Kirk, Prescott or even possibly Danny as a backup QB. There is a real possibility that Anthony doesn’t even start right away … ahh, the thoughts you get AFTER making the pick!
 
Really torn on Richardson vs. Gibbs/QJ/Njigba

I don't really need QB and really need WR help but Richardson's upside seems too much to pass up at 1.02.
 
TripItUp said:
Really torn on Richardson vs. Gibbs/QJ/Njigba

I don't really need QB and really need WR help but Richardson's upside seems too much to pass up at 1.02.
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I'd have a really hard time passing on Gibbs unless its a Superflex.

Of course, I'm also of the belief Gibbs could blow right by Montgomery and be much more than Swift ever ended up being, so if you are lower on Gibbs, then...I'd still probably take Gibbs and trade him to someone who likes him as much as I do.

I think Richardson could be a top-10 QB right away, but in 1 QB, that's not super valuable, unless he gets up to Hurts/Lamar levels. Even Fields (who is much more proven than Richardson) doesn't seem to have the highest trade value this offseason, despite basically everything that could go his way having gone his way.
 
Just out of curiosity from everyone's recent participation in dynasty rookie draft, how high did you see Anthony Richardson being taken?

And am I crazy for considering on taking him at 1.03 (once Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are taken at top 2 picks)?
 
Aznflyer14 said:
Just out of curiosity from everyone's recent participation in dynasty rookie draft, how high did you see Anthony Richardson being taken?

And am I crazy for considering on taking him at 1.03 (once Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are taken at top 2 picks)?
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Yes take JSN and hope he makes it to you at 2.3 assuming u have that pick.
 
ESPN’s Dan Graziano said he expects Anthony Richardson to start in Week 1.

There remains some doubt about Richardson’s readiness for the pro game. Gardner Minshew, meanwhile, has experience in head coach Shane Steichen’s system and could conceivably get a few starts while Richardson develops, as Colts owner Jim Irsay has suggested. “Even if he still needs refining as a passer, Richardson will offer enough as a runner that he’ll be the Colts’ best option right out of the chute,” Graziano said. “And he may not even need as much refining as a passer as many thought he would.” Richardson’s rushing prowess could make him a steal in redraft leagues if questions about his Week 1 status continue to hold down his ADP.
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Faust said:
ESPN’s Dan Graziano said he expects Anthony Richardson to start in Week 1.

There remains some doubt about Richardson’s readiness for the pro game. Gardner Minshew, meanwhile, has experience in head coach Shane Steichen’s system and could conceivably get a few starts while Richardson develops, as Colts owner Jim Irsay has suggested. “Even if he still needs refining as a passer, Richardson will offer enough as a runner that he’ll be the Colts’ best option right out of the chute,” Graziano said. “And he may not even need as much refining as a passer as many thought he would.” Richardson’s rushing prowess could make him a steal in redraft leagues if questions about his Week 1 status continue to hold down his ADP.
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I’ve been watching some camp clips - lots of RPO.

Lots of RZ RPO

And, importantly, lots of successful results with RPO.

Jonathan Taylor’s value should be sinking like a rock, but ARich is looking capable.
 
Unwrittenlaw said:
I see this guy.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Donovan McNabb Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Donovan McNabb. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.
www.pro-football-reference.com www.pro-football-reference.com

Similar rushing #s in college. He's going to have higher success than RG3 for sure just based on his rushing ypc.
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Well, that’s probably true long term, but let’s not forget RG3 was the highest scoring fantasy player in some leagues as a rookie. I can’t recall if at the time I was in a 6 point passing TD league or if it was 4, but I definitely remember he scored the most points in our league that year.

I don’t see that for ARich this year at all but he could certainly lap Mr. Doesn’t Know How To Slide long term.
 
humpback said:
Taylor has some injury and contract concerns, but no way should his value be sinking like a rock because of ARich.
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Could not disagree more.

For one, Taylor’s receptions figure to be *dramatically* reduced if ARich is the starter. That’s just a lock based on ARich’s college profile. His biggest season throwing to RBs is less than half of Taylor’s average total IIRC.

For another, ARich will be a GL/RZ vulture.

Running QBs are not a good thing for a RB. Particularly on the Colts, where offensive plays will likely be among the lowest total run in the league. If ARich siphons ~35% of the team’s rushing yards, that’s not going to leave enough for JT to remotely sniff elite production.

Time will tell, but I’m fading every part of that offense not named ARich this year. Maybe it improves as ARich develops, or maybe Minshew is the starter and all this goes out the window.

But assuming ARich starts, it’s a doomsday scenario for JT.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
humpback said:
Taylor has some injury and contract concerns, but no way should his value be sinking like a rock because of ARich.
Click to expand...
Could not disagree more.

For one, Taylor’s receptions figure to be *dramatically* reduced if ARich is the starter. That’s just a lock based on ARich’s college profile. His biggest season throwing to RBs is less than half of Taylor’s average total IIRC.

For another, ARich will be a GL/RZ vulture.

Running QBs are not a good thing for a RB. Particularly on the Colts, where offensive plays will likely be among the lowest total run in the league. If ARich siphons ~35% of the team’s rushing yards, that’s not going to leave enough for JT to remotely sniff elite production.

Time will tell, but I’m fading every part of that offense not named ARich this year. Maybe it improves as ARich develops, or maybe Minshew is the starter and all this goes out the window.

But assuming ARich starts, it’s a doomsday scenario for JT.
Click to expand...
Well, yeah, I could not disagree more either lol.

You seriously think ARich's college profile, which consists of less than 1 NFL season's worth of starts, means anything is a lock? He's not at Florida any more, he's going to be running an NFL offense. Besides, he threw to his RBs more than Stroud did- do you think it's a lock that receptions for the Texans RBs are going to plummet too? Finally, it's not like most of Taylor's production came from the passing game in the first place- he has 104 receptions for 802 yards and 3 TDs combined in 3 seasons. Not bad, but a fraction of his FF value.

Sure, ARich will vulture some GL/RZ TD's. You know who else does that? Lamar and Hurts. That doesn't stop their RBs from putting up some massive stats, including rushing TDs. In Lamar's last healthy season, he ran for 1000 yds. and 7 TDs. Damn, must not be anything left for the RBs. Except they combined to run for almost 1900 yds. and 17 TDs (and almost 50 receptions for a few hundred more yards but who's counting). Hurts had 13 rushing TDs last year, but that still left 18 rushing TDs for the RBs. The year before he had 10, leaving 15 for the RBs. Oh, and the OC for those years just happens to be Taylor's coach this year. Added bonus, Taylor just happens to be much better than those other RBs.

You're entitled to your opinion, but the numbers pretty clearly show the opposite of what you're saying, particularly for this specific coach. I'm much more concerned about ARich sucking out loud, which would obviously hurt everyone including Taylor. If he plays well he can run all he wants, there will be PLENTY still there for Taylor.
 
humpback said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
humpback said:
Taylor has some injury and contract concerns, but no way should his value be sinking like a rock because of ARich.
Click to expand...
Could not disagree more.

For one, Taylor’s receptions figure to be *dramatically* reduced if ARich is the starter. That’s just a lock based on ARich’s college profile. His biggest season throwing to RBs is less than half of Taylor’s average total IIRC.

For another, ARich will be a GL/RZ vulture.

Running QBs are not a good thing for a RB. Particularly on the Colts, where offensive plays will likely be among the lowest total run in the league. If ARich siphons ~35% of the team’s rushing yards, that’s not going to leave enough for JT to remotely sniff elite production.

Time will tell, but I’m fading every part of that offense not named ARich this year. Maybe it improves as ARich develops, or maybe Minshew is the starter and all this goes out the window.

But assuming ARich starts, it’s a doomsday scenario for JT.
Click to expand...
Well, yeah, I could not disagree more either lol.

You seriously think ARich's college profile, which consists of less than 1 NFL season's worth of starts, means anything is a lock? He's not at Florida any more, he's going to be running an NFL offense. Besides, he threw to his RBs more than Stroud did- do you think it's a lock that receptions for the Texans RBs are going to plummet too? Finally, it's not like most of Taylor's production came from the passing game in the first place- he has 104 receptions for 802 yards and 3 TDs combined in 3 seasons. Not bad, but a fraction of his FF value.

Sure, ARich will vulture some GL/RZ TD's. You know who else does that? Lamar and Hurts. That doesn't stop their RBs from putting up some massive stats, including rushing TDs. In Lamar's last healthy season, he ran for 1000 yds. and 7 TDs. Damn, must not be anything left for the RBs. Except they combined to run for almost 1900 yds. and 17 TDs (and almost 50 receptions for a few hundred more yards but who's counting). Hurts had 13 rushing TDs last year, but that still left 18 rushing TDs for the RBs. The year before he had 10, leaving 15 for the RBs. Oh, and the OC for those years just happens to be Taylor's coach this year. Added bonus, Taylor just happens to be much better than those other RBs.

You're entitled to your opinion, but the numbers pretty clearly show the opposite of what you're saying, particularly for this specific coach. I'm much more concerned about ARich sucking out loud, which would obviously hurt everyone including Taylor. If he plays well he can run all he wants, there will be PLENTY still there for Taylor.
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The numbers pretty well support rushing QBs hurting RB production/upsode.

How was Miles Sanders receiving production with Hurts? He went from a 50 rec RB to half that.

Quick, who was the last BAL RB to have a 30 reception season?

We’ll see what happens. I just don’t see ARich’s presence being good for JT at all in year 1.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
humpback said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
humpback said:
Taylor has some injury and contract concerns, but no way should his value be sinking like a rock because of ARich.
Click to expand...
Could not disagree more.

For one, Taylor’s receptions figure to be *dramatically* reduced if ARich is the starter. That’s just a lock based on ARich’s college profile. His biggest season throwing to RBs is less than half of Taylor’s average total IIRC.

For another, ARich will be a GL/RZ vulture.

Running QBs are not a good thing for a RB. Particularly on the Colts, where offensive plays will likely be among the lowest total run in the league. If ARich siphons ~35% of the team’s rushing yards, that’s not going to leave enough for JT to remotely sniff elite production.

Time will tell, but I’m fading every part of that offense not named ARich this year. Maybe it improves as ARich develops, or maybe Minshew is the starter and all this goes out the window.

But assuming ARich starts, it’s a doomsday scenario for JT.
Click to expand...
Well, yeah, I could not disagree more either lol.

You seriously think ARich's college profile, which consists of less than 1 NFL season's worth of starts, means anything is a lock? He's not at Florida any more, he's going to be running an NFL offense. Besides, he threw to his RBs more than Stroud did- do you think it's a lock that receptions for the Texans RBs are going to plummet too? Finally, it's not like most of Taylor's production came from the passing game in the first place- he has 104 receptions for 802 yards and 3 TDs combined in 3 seasons. Not bad, but a fraction of his FF value.

Sure, ARich will vulture some GL/RZ TD's. You know who else does that? Lamar and Hurts. That doesn't stop their RBs from putting up some massive stats, including rushing TDs. In Lamar's last healthy season, he ran for 1000 yds. and 7 TDs. Damn, must not be anything left for the RBs. Except they combined to run for almost 1900 yds. and 17 TDs (and almost 50 receptions for a few hundred more yards but who's counting). Hurts had 13 rushing TDs last year, but that still left 18 rushing TDs for the RBs. The year before he had 10, leaving 15 for the RBs. Oh, and the OC for those years just happens to be Taylor's coach this year. Added bonus, Taylor just happens to be much better than those other RBs.

You're entitled to your opinion, but the numbers pretty clearly show the opposite of what you're saying, particularly for this specific coach. I'm much more concerned about ARich sucking out loud, which would obviously hurt everyone including Taylor. If he plays well he can run all he wants, there will be PLENTY still there for Taylor.
Click to expand...
The numbers pretty well support rushing QBs hurting RB production/upsode.

How was Miles Sanders receiving production with Hurts? He went from a 50 rec RB to half that.

Quick, who was the last BAL RB to have a 30 reception season?

We’ll see what happens. I just don’t see ARich’s presence being good for JT at all in year 1.
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Sanders had 50 receptions 4 years ago. Sure, his receiving production was lower last year, but his overall production was the best of his career. And he split with 2 other RBs, combined they had 48 receptions. Along with nearly 2000 total yards and 18 TDs.

The great Devonte Freeman had 30+ receptions the year before last, and the Ravens use several RBs as well. Again, receiving is only a part of a RBs game, and usually not the main part, including for Taylor.

The Bears RBs combined for 2000 yards and 11 TDs as well with Fields leading the team in rushing. Oh, and Monty hit your magical 30 reception mark himself. :lol:

You can't just look at one stat, and you can't just look at one player. The overall RB production has been incredibly good on teams with the top 3 rushing QBs in the game. I suppose you can try to deny that there's a causation there if you want (seems a huge stretch to me), but to say that his value should drop like a rock or it's a doomsday scenario is straight bonkers IMO.
 
I don't know why you are including JT in this discussion. I know some of you are looking at this at a redraft mindset, but good chance JT isn't on this team in 2025 and 75% chance he isn't there 2024.


It's not AR's running ability. It's going to be the receiving core around him and how they develop. Warrick Dunn had 50 receptions with Vick, but no WRs over 1000 yards.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
The numbers pretty well support rushing QBs hurting RB production/upsode.
Click to expand...
I believe there have been articles that show the opposite - running QBs open up lanes for RBs - making it easier to make big plays on their own.

The TD vulturing seems like a valid concern though.
Click to expand...
Also the lack of receptions is real. Those QBs just take off more where a non-mobile QB will just dump it off.
 
Ilov80s said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
The numbers pretty well support rushing QBs hurting RB production/upsode.
Click to expand...
I believe there have been articles that show the opposite - running QBs open up lanes for RBs - making it easier to make big plays on their own.

The TD vulturing seems like a valid concern though.
Click to expand...
Also the lack of receptions is real. Those QBs just take off more where a non-mobile QB will just dump it off.
Click to expand...
And he’s a rookie rushing QB. Rookie QBs hurt rb production too
 
Ilov80s said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
The numbers pretty well support rushing QBs hurting RB production/upsode.
Click to expand...
I believe there have been articles that show the opposite - running QBs open up lanes for RBs - making it easier to make big plays on their own.

The TD vulturing seems like a valid concern though.
Click to expand...
Also the lack of receptions is real. Those QBs just take off more where a non-mobile QB will just dump it off.
Click to expand...
Exactly

Fields is about the only example where the RB had decent receiving numbers.

But then, they tried to prevent him from running for a long time.
 
Ilov80s said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
The numbers pretty well support rushing QBs hurting RB production/upsode.
Click to expand...
I believe there have been articles that show the opposite - running QBs open up lanes for RBs - making it easier to make big plays on their own.

The TD vulturing seems like a valid concern though.
Click to expand...
Also the lack of receptions is real. Those QBs just take off more where a non-mobile QB will just dump it off.
Click to expand...
Dump off passes may fall off - but most RB receptions come on designed plays. Surely a concern - but that wasn’t a huge part of Taylor’s game in the first place.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
humpback said:
but to say that his value should drop like a rock or it's a doomsday scenario is straight bonkers IMO.
Click to expand...
Time will tell.

People smarter than me are also saying it.
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In our current hot take world I'm sure there are some people saying it. The vast majority certainly aren't, otherwise it would be reflected in ADP, rankings, etc.

And time may tell, but it probably won't.
Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
The numbers pretty well support rushing QBs hurting RB production/upsode.
Click to expand...
I believe there have been articles that show the opposite - running QBs open up lanes for RBs - making it easier to make big plays on their own.

The TD vulturing seems like a valid concern though.
Click to expand...
Exactly. There is no denying that Taylor's % of the pie will likely decrease, but that can be offset by the overall pie itself growing. In fact that's usually how it goes.
Ilov80s said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
The numbers pretty well support rushing QBs hurting RB production/upsode.
Click to expand...
I believe there have been articles that show the opposite - running QBs open up lanes for RBs - making it easier to make big plays on their own.

The TD vulturing seems like a valid concern though.
Click to expand...
Also the lack of receptions is real. Those QBs just take off more where a non-mobile QB will just dump it off.
Click to expand...
Which would be more of a concern if we were talking about someone like Gibbs. Taylor doesn't derive a huge % of his fantasy value from the receiving game, so even in an extreme situation where his receiving numbers get cut in half it wouldn't be apocalyptic. Could easily be offset by the overall pie increasing.
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Ilov80s said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
The numbers pretty well support rushing QBs hurting RB production/upsode.
Click to expand...
I believe there have been articles that show the opposite - running QBs open up lanes for RBs - making it easier to make big plays on their own.

The TD vulturing seems like a valid concern though.
Click to expand...
Also the lack of receptions is real. Those QBs just take off more where a non-mobile QB will just dump it off.
Click to expand...
Exactly

Fields is about the only example where the RB had decent receiving numbers.

But then, they tried to prevent him from running for a long time.
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This is simply incorrect. It's true if you are talking about only 1 RB from those teams, but the RB position as a whole has put up decent receiving numbers, and Taylor doesn't split like all those other guys do.
 
Ilov80s said:
Sure but if his RZ carries and already limited receptions both decrease, it does hurt his value.
Click to expand...
But you’re discounting the offense getting better under Richardson. I know he’s a rookie QB, and a raw one at that - but he’s likely an upgrade from a washed up Matt Ryan, Sam Ellinger, Nick Foles and Carson Wentz, who Taylor has played with in the past.
So Taylor’s TD numbers may not drop at all - The Colts may just increase their overall rushing TDs by 25%, 30%…50%.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
Ilov80s said:
Sure but if his RZ carries and already limited receptions both decrease, it does hurt his value.
Click to expand...
But you’re discounting the offense getting better under Richardson. I know he’s a rookie QB, and a raw one at that - but he’s likely an upgrade from a washed up Matt Ryan, Sam Ellinger, Nick Foles and Carson Wentz, who Taylor has played with in the past.
So Taylor’s TD numbers may not drop at all - The Colts may just increase their overall rushing TDs by 25%, 30%…50%.
Click to expand...
I have my doubts a rookie QB is such a massive boost to the offense but you are right that the Colts were pretty bad last year on offense so improvement is realistic. They could literally double their rushing TDs from last year and still be around league average. They only had 8. Of course all 7/8 of those came from RBs. If the Colts add 8 more rushing TDs, how many of those are probably coming from AR? What do we think the o/u will be on AR rushing TDs from the books?
 
Ilov80s said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Ilov80s said:
Sure but if his RZ carries and already limited receptions both decrease, it does hurt his value.
Click to expand...
But you’re discounting the offense getting better under Richardson. I know he’s a rookie QB, and a raw one at that - but he’s likely an upgrade from a washed up Matt Ryan, Sam Ellinger, Nick Foles and Carson Wentz, who Taylor has played with in the past.
So Taylor’s TD numbers may not drop at all - The Colts may just increase their overall rushing TDs by 25%, 30%…50%.
Click to expand...
I have my doubts a rookie QB is such a massive boost to the offense but you are right that the Colts were pretty bad last year on offense so improvement is realistic. They could literally double their rushing TDs from last year and still be around league average. They only had 8. Of course all 7/8 of those came from RBs. If the Colts add 8 more rushing TDs, how many of those are probably coming from AR? What do we think the o/u will be on AR rushing TDs from the books?
Click to expand...
Also, as I said upthread, the Colts do not appear to be on an uptick offensively. Maybe eventually if/when ARich starts playing well.

For 2023 I am assuming they’re a bottom 5 offense in the NFL, with a bottom 5 number of offensive plays called.

I also expect ARich to represent as much as 35% of the Colts rushing yards with heaps of RPOs to play to his strengths.

If ARich is running that much, the running back isn’t.

I’m 💯 out on JT at his current ADP.
 
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