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QB Anthony Richardson, IND (2 Viewers)

Richardson will never finish a season healthy
I don't see how anyone can say that with such assurance but whatever you want to think.

You're imagining a world where Richardson increases his completion percentage by nearly 10 points while maintaining his rushing prowess, and no such world exists.
I'm simply taking a baseline of performance when healthy and believing he has room to grow as a very young and raw player. There is nothing otherwordly about that.
 
Rushing QB's tend to get hurt more often. Lamar dealt with it,
Is this really true, though?

In Jackson's case, he got hurt in the pocket for his one "true" injury. He also got COVID like 19 times and, in my opinion, hurt his back on a stupid somersault into the endzone. I'm not saying he's never been hurt some running, but how many big shots have we seen him take in the open field?
 
'm sorry. I was willing to listen to everything you said until you ended with top 5 QB range. Our discussion started with QB10'ish, then you went to QB9 or QB8, and now you are saying QB5.
Actually our discussion started with you responding to my post asking if he really had elite upside. Which is a fair question.

For the other part I really am confused what does make sense. His full game performance is in line with a QB in the 8-10 range, number I pegged at around 22 FPG. That's 2.7 points away from last years QB5. So yes, I'll say again, if he remains on the field to finish games AND improves 2-3 fantasy points a game he'll be in top 5 QB range.

I'll put this another way though saying top 10.

Finish games healthy. He's top 10 or someone I'd peg around 22 fpg.

Finish games healthy and improve 2-3 points and he'll be top 5, in the 24-25 fpg range.
Fair enough, but let me reply with this...

Richardson will never finish a season healthy, so you projecting a top 5 finish is the same as projecting a top 5 finish for the garbage QB's I listed above. They all managed QB1 status in limited starts, just like Richardson, but no person in their right mind would project them as a full season QB5, including you. You're imagining a world where Richardson increases his completion percentage by nearly 10 points while maintaining his rushing prowess, and no such world exists.

Richardson getting to a 60% completion percentage this year would represent a 25% increase in completion efficiency over last year and still would have left him dead last in completion percentage among qualifying QBs. That’s an awfully tall ask and still leaves him the worst in the league. I don’t see how a NFL offense remains functional with such a deficient QB.
 
Rushing QB's tend to get hurt more often. Lamar dealt with it,
Is this really true, though?

In Jackson's case, he got hurt in the pocket for his one "true" injury. He also got COVID like 19 times and, in my opinion, hurt his back on a stupid somersault into the endzone. I'm not saying he's never been hurt some running, but how many big shots have we seen him take in the open field?
This is what the conversation always seems to come back to. Being that every debate seems to show evidence of both yes and no and rarely ever gets resolved, at this point I think we are just asking the wrong question/looking at the wrong corollary (rushing QB). I don't have much to back it up, but I've come to think the past few years now that it's less about whether a QB rushes/how much they rush and much more about knowing when to go down, how to go down, and how to protect yourself through contact (ie. how to take a hit). Sure, every time a QB rushes it's another chance to get hit; but weighed against someone who knows how to go down/get hit without suffering injury might be so impactful that rushing or not almost becomes a moot point.

Probably not the best analogy; but think seatbelts in cars. Prior to seatbelts the best way to lower risk of severe injury or fatality by cars was to not drive one. Still have a risk of being hit by one as a pedestrian, but obviously much higher if you're driving one yourself. But seatbelts have lowered the risk of serious injury/fatality to such an extent that driving with one on might be about the same risk as not driving at all and just being hit walking around in a city. Seat belt here being the training in how to go down/protect yourself through contact.
 
Rushing QB's tend to get hurt more often. Lamar dealt with it,
Is this really true, though?

In Jackson's case, he got hurt in the pocket for his one "true" injury. He also got COVID like 19 times and, in my opinion, hurt his back on a stupid somersault into the endzone. I'm not saying he's never been hurt some running, but how many big shots have we seen him take in the open field?
This is what the conversation always seems to come back to. Being that every debate seems to show evidence of both yes and no and rarely ever gets resolved, at this point I think we are just asking the wrong question/looking at the wrong corollary (rushing QB). I don't have much to back it up, but I've come to think the past few years now that it's less about whether a QB rushes/how much they rush and much more about knowing when to go down, how to go down, and how to protect yourself through contact (ie. how to take a hit). Sure, every time a QB rushes it's another chance to get hit; but weighed against someone who knows how to go down/get hit without suffering injury might be so impactful that rushing or not almost becomes a moot point.

Probably not the best analogy; but think seatbelts in cars. Prior to seatbelts the best way to lower risk of severe injury or fatality by cars was to not drive one. Still have a risk of being hit by one as a pedestrian, but obviously much higher if you're driving one yourself. But seatbelts have lowered the risk of serious injury/fatality to such an extent that driving with one on might be about the same risk as not driving at all and just being hit walking around in a city. Seat belt here being the training in how to go down/protect yourself through contact.
Richardson better wear a seat belt when he sits on the bench this year then.
 
Being missed even more than the previous post, in my opinion, is what the primary function of the QB is on the field. Their responsibility above all other functions is to distribute the football to the playmakers on the team. It’s why even so dreadful a passer as Richardson still had 3 times as many pass attempts as rushes, and a significant number of those rushes were passing plays that either broke down or Richardson failed to perform.

If this were not the case, a team like IND would simply revert to a single wing formation, load up with road graders on the line, and mash their way down the field using Richardson’s best asset of his running ability. Obviously that simply will not work at the pro level.

The additional benefit of distributing the ball rather than carrying it themselves is that it puts them at much lesser risk of injury, and virtually every team in the NFL needs that to be the case because the single greatest dropoff in overall productivity in most cases occurs when a team is forced to translate from its starting QB to its second stringer.

When a QB cannot successfully operate the offense because they fail too much in distributing the football then they get replaced. In Richardson’s case he has a substantially increased risk of replacement because not only is he such a poor distributor of the football but also because he forced the team to go to its replacement QB because he is injured so often due to the risk he incurs by rushing so much. How long do people expect IND to continue to get such poor and inconsistent play at its most important position? Yeah, the rushing numbers are great for FF, but does not bode well for longevity as a starter by a guy like Richardson for exactly the reasons above.
 
How much do we blame Richardson's struggles on him and how much on coaching (both college & NFL - hell, throw High School in there too)? I don't follow the Colts enough to know. He looks like he's just kind of lost when I've seen him play, but it's only been a few times.
 
How much do we blame Richardson's struggles on him and how much on coaching (both college & NFL - hell, throw High School in there too)? I don't follow the Colts enough to know. He looks like he's just kind of lost when I've seen him play, but it's only been a few times.
I think with a lot of athletic rushing QBs too much importance is placed on that trait and take the attitude we can fix the rest of him. In my mind the most important traits of a QB are accuracy, quick release, reading defenses, and leadership, assuming enough arm strength to make all the NFL throws. If a QB is missing too many of these and simply cannot improve, then you have what appears to be a wasted pick. Having said that, I’ll tap out for a few plays, as this post really took it out of me.
 
How much do we blame Richardson's struggles on him and how much on coaching (both college & NFL - hell, throw High School in there too)? I don't follow the Colts enough to know. He looks like he's just kind of lost when I've seen him play, but it's only been a few times.
Him.

Where you can blame the team/coaching IMO is drafting him so high in the first place and maybe their plan to develop him, perhaps having him start week one as a rookie was not the best approach but then again he did kind of earn it in camp that year IIRC.

But he has looked lost and has struggled making some routine throws. That has to be mainly on him.

He's super raw and NFL is a tough place to develop from his starting point. It's a tough situation but from what I've gathered on him he's a good kid, well liked, teammates really came to his support strong last year. He's not lazy, but at the same time has failed to understand the work and everything that is required of a franchise QB. I believe "took it for granted" applies, he might have said as much himself. Thus the decision to obtain a QB to push/compete and make him earn it or sit and try and to learn if not.

The one area I would give in his defense, other then being raw trying to learn in the NFL, is he that he did regress as a passer from his limited time as a rookie and a lot of that might have had to do spending most of the last off-season rehabbing his shoulder. Which is of course an issue now but he's already spent a few months working with a QB coach at least, something he was not able to do last off-season.
 
How much do we blame Richardson's struggles on him and how much on coaching (both college & NFL - hell, throw High School in there too)? I don't follow the Colts enough to know. He looks like he's just kind of lost when I've seen him play, but it's only been a few times.

I've posted this a few times in this thread but Richardson went to both my high school and then my alma mater, so I've been following him a long time.

I was rooting for him, but the reality is he can't consistently throw a ball accurately to a guy in warm-ups standing still 10 yards away. Like I've mentioned before in here, once you've been throwing a football for a few years that's simply something you can either do or something you can't. It's not something you can be taught to do 5 years into your career. He's just not ever going to be able to do that. Can his athleticism make up for the insane inaccuracy? Maybe, but of course that requires staying healthy as the very first step, which as I've harped on in this thread since long before it was cool, was something he's always struggled with immensely.

FWIW as well, DJ Lagway has developed extremely well (and quickly) under the same coach Richardson had in college.
 
How much do we blame Richardson's struggles on him and how much on coaching (both college & NFL - hell, throw High School in there too)? I don't follow the Colts enough to know. He looks like he's just kind of lost when I've seen him play, but it's only been a few times.

I've posted this a few times in this thread but Richardson went to both my high school and then my alma mater, so I've been following him a long time.

I was rooting for him, but the reality is he can't consistently throw a ball accurately to a guy in warm-ups standing still 10 yards away. Like I've mentioned before in here, once you've been throwing a football for a few years that's simply something you can either do or something you can't. It's not something you can be taught to do 5 years into your career. He's just not ever going to be able to do that. Can his athleticism make up for the insane inaccuracy? Maybe, but of course that requires staying healthy as the very first step, which as I've harped on in this thread since long before it was cool, was something he's always struggled with immensely.

FWIW as well, DJ Lagway has developed extremely well (and quickly) under the same coach Richardson had in college.
I think guys can improve even at this age, but it is rare and requires the right work ethic (something that has been questioned about AR in the past). Milroe seems to have some of those same issues but is praised for his maturity, understanding on what he needs to improve on, and his work ethic is reportedly top notch. Add in the fact that the staff is getting a warm seat, I doubt they will have much tolerance for error going forward in Indy.
 
'm sorry. I was willing to listen to everything you said until you ended with top 5 QB range. Our discussion started with QB10'ish, then you went to QB9 or QB8, and now you are saying QB5.
Actually our discussion started with you responding to my post asking if he really had elite upside. Which is a fair question.

For the other part I really am confused what does make sense. His full game performance is in line with a QB in the 8-10 range, number I pegged at around 22 FPG. That's 2.7 points away from last years QB5. So yes, I'll say again, if he remains on the field to finish games AND improves 2-3 fantasy points a game he'll be in top 5 QB range.

I'll put this another way though saying top 10.

Finish games healthy. He's top 10 or someone I'd peg around 22 fpg.

Finish games healthy and improve 2-3 points and he'll be top 5, in the 24-25 fpg range.
Fair enough, but let me reply with this...

Richardson will never finish a season healthy, so you projecting a top 5 finish is the same as projecting a top 5 finish for the garbage QB's I listed above. They all managed QB1 status in limited starts, just like Richardson, but no person in their right mind would project them as a full season QB5, including you. You're imagining a world where Richardson increases his completion percentage by nearly 10 points while maintaining his rushing prowess, and no such world exists.
Fred Taylor taught me to never say never about a player shaking their injury proneness.
 
Rushing QB's tend to get hurt more often. Lamar dealt with it,
Is this really true, though?

In Jackson's case, he got hurt in the pocket for his one "true" injury. He also got COVID like 19 times and, in my opinion, hurt his back on a stupid somersault into the endzone. I'm not saying he's never been hurt some running, but how many big shots have we seen him take in the open field?
Do you get points in your league for completion percentage?

As terrible as a short/mid distance passer as he's been, AR still has a winning record when on the field. If he steps up to a 60% completion rate, then he's going to win even more and his job wouldn't be in jeopardy. And he'd make an excellent fantasy QB.

None of that matters if he can't stay healthy. And if he can't improve as a passer, his hold on the starting gig will always be tentative. The upside for AR remains immense. The question remains, will he ever achieve it. There are more and more reasons to think he won't, but that doesn't change his actual upside. A health AR that completes 60% of his passes is a top 5 fantasy QB and has a secure hold on his job. That's just a fact. Will he ever be that guy? I dunno. This year doesn't seem to be starting off on the right foot for that to happen.
 
Rushing QB's tend to get hurt more often. Lamar dealt with it,
Is this really true, though?

In Jackson's case, he got hurt in the pocket for his one "true" injury. He also got COVID like 19 times and, in my opinion, hurt his back on a stupid somersault into the endzone. I'm not saying he's never been hurt some running, but how many big shots have we seen him take in the open field?
Do you get points in your league for completion percentage?

As terrible as a short/mid distance passer as he's been, AR still has a winning record when on the field. If he steps up to a 60% completion rate, then he's going to win even more and his job wouldn't be in jeopardy. And he'd make an excellent fantasy QB.

None of that matters if he can't stay healthy. And if he can't improve as a passer, his hold on the starting gig will always be tentative. The upside for AR remains immense. The question remains, will he ever achieve it. There are more and more reasons to think he won't, but that doesn't change his actual upside. A health AR that completes 60% of his passes is a top 5 fantasy QB and has a secure hold on his job. That's just a fact. Will he ever be that guy? I dunno. This year doesn't seem to be starting off on the right foot for that to happen.
Are you sure you meant to quote that post from me?

I had another above more directly talking about how I thought Richardson looks lost to me. Your response would be more appropriate to that one and I'd agree with a lot of what you say.
 
I do need to point out: He's missing mini camp due to lingering shoulder soreness. He got a second opinion on the shoulder. He's not even healthy AT THIS POINT. There's no exact time table for him to return. Indy is hoping he'll be back at some point during training camp.

But if you're saying "I think he'll finally stay healthy this time," he's not exactly off to a great start.

Moreso than just the health point of it all: When is he going to work on his passing? If you are arguing that he only needs to improve his passing a tiny bit--this time matters. He may not even get a full training camp. And you're asking him to suddenly be better at passing against an NFL defense?

I'll concede easily: If EVERYTHING goes right, he can be top 5. I would argue if EVERYTHING goes right for any of SEVERAL QB's, they can be top 5. Trevor Lawrence just got Baker's OC. He'll have Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter. Best weapons of his career. Could he have a 40 touchdown season "IF EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT?" Sure.

If the ONLY discussion is ceiling: He's top 5. We can stop there. If you actually care about how likely one is to reach that ceiling: I don't forsee Richardson reaching it. I think Richardson could easily lose the starting position to Daniel Jones. And I don't think Daniel Jones is some amazing quarterback.
 
He got a second opinion on the shoulder
Granted he's dealing with an injury now, it's unfortunate and is what it is, but you might frame this as a negative and I don't. He went back to the surgeon who operated on him and was advised to just rest. Also read it was always the plan when he reported shoulder soreness so was not a situation were more bad news/tests made him go see the surgeon.

When is he going to work on his passing?
He's been working with a QB coach this off-season. Josh Allen's guy. Might be why his shoulder is worn out?

And you're asking him to suddenly be better at passing against an NFL defense?
One thing I'd add on this. His mechanics do need work to clean up his passing but so does his decision making. For whatever reason(s) last year he was far more reluctant to take the shorter throws. So just something for people to keep in mind that he led the NFL in air yards per target last year, was over 12. That's a formula for any QB to hamper their completion percentage.

I know some people scoff at the notion he can be a 60% passer but he while the sample size was small his rookie year he was literally 4/10th of a completion from being just that. His air yards per attempt was about 4 yards less.

I'm not even remotely trying to say he does not have accuracy issues, just think some context for his incredible poor percentage last year is needed.
 
My last thing to add here is I was doing some serious reading between the lines on Irsay's daughters press conference last year and my conclusion was he's very much in their plans, and as I've long thought this off-season, they brought in Jones to push him but they'd prefer to see him prevail at some point.
 
He went back to the surgeon who operated on him and was advised to just rest.

This is a slippery slope. Doctors, especially successful ones can be very arrogant. What doctor is going to say they may have made a mistake and he needs to correct something? I had hernia surgery a while back and could tell something wasn't right. Went back to the same doctor that performed the surgery and of course he said everything looked good. Maybe Richardson should seek a second opinion instead of just taking this doctors word? What would it hurt? That way, if there is an issue, they could possibly catch it before it turns into something worse.
 
He went back to the surgeon who operated on him and was advised to just rest.

This is a slippery slope. Doctors, especially successful ones can be very arrogant. What doctor is going to say they may have made a mistake and he needs to correct something? I had hernia surgery a while back and could tell something wasn't right. Went back to the same doctor that performed the surgery and of course he said everything looked good. Maybe Richardson should seek a second opinion instead of just taking this doctors word? What would it hurt? That way, if there is an issue, they could possibly catch it before it turns into something worse.
I don't know about all that. His surgeon is basically the new Dr. Andrews and doubt there is any surgeon more in demand for what he does by professional athletes then Dr. ElAttrache.
 
At this point I just wish the Colts would move on. I don’t even care if he becomes a stud down the road. I’m kind of sick of the constant something wrong with him physically. Forgot the fact that he isn’t a real NFL QB talent wise.
 
He got a second opinion on the shoulder
Granted he's dealing with an injury now, it's unfortunate and is what it is, but you might frame this as a negative and I don't. He went back to the surgeon who operated on him and was advised to just rest. Also read it was always the plan when he reported shoulder soreness so was not a situation were more bad news/tests made him go see the surgeon.

When is he going to work on his passing?
He's been working with a QB coach this off-season. Josh Allen's guy. Might be why his shoulder is worn out?

And you're asking him to suddenly be better at passing against an NFL defense?
One thing I'd add on this. His mechanics do need work to clean up his passing but so does his decision making. For whatever reason(s) last year he was far more reluctant to take the shorter throws. So just something for people to keep in mind that he led the NFL in air yards per target last year, was over 12. That's a formula for any QB to hamper their completion percentage.

I know some people scoff at the notion he can be a 60% passer but he while the sample size was small his rookie year he was literally 4/10th of a completion from being just that. His air yards per attempt was about 4 yards less.

I'm not even remotely trying to say he does not have accuracy issues, just think some context for his incredible poor percentage last year is needed.
RE: Injury

He had the surgery in 2023. He developed a new soreness at some point in 2025. I don’t see how this anything other than negative,

He’ll miss time and reps. He needs both to improve.
 
So he wen thru all the practices and some games last year and the shoulder was fine, and now this year after a couple of days of OTAs his shoulder was sore. Sounds to me like he didnt do any or very little throwing during the offseason and then over cooked it at OTAs, which doesnt jive with him working with the guy who helped Josh Allen, would think he would have thrown a lot.
Rest will help, and he has time for that, but missing mini camp reps isnt good for him either. He'll need to be 100% and looking good in camp and preseason games to keep that job. But even if he does keep it, how long until he is injured again? 5 weeks, max?
 
“Fred Taylor taught me to never say never about a player shaking their injury proneness.”

Yes. And that’s mostly true because being injury “prone” is mostly an illusion. I completely ignore it.
 

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