if the league didn't want him to play this year
1. they would have made that very clear to the Browns to stop the trade, or stopped it outright
2. would have put him on the exempt list before the trade, or immediately thereafter
3. actually suspended him for 2022, instead of having the media float stories to give the illusion they intend to placate the masses with heavy handed treatment
anyone intending to watch NFL football in 202, will not be stopped if Watson plays or not
1 - Why would the league intervene? The Browns knew the risk and the league's investigation wasn't over. Just like in fantasy, it's not the commissioner's place to block trades. Not Goodell's fault the Browns traded the farm and gave Watson the largest guaranteed contract in league history. One can argue the Browns already knew something was coming, as they only are paying Watson $1 million this season in salary. Sure, teams normally pay players less in their first year, but typically they don't set up contracts at $1M - $46M - $46M - $46M - $46M. A more traditional contract would be $15M - $35M - $40M - $45M - $50M. So, I don't totally buy that CLE had no prior knowledge of the situation.
2 - The exempt list comes into play when there are games to be played. At the time of the trade, there were 6 months until opening day . . . pretty pointless to worry about Watson getting a game check when there wouldn't be one for 6 months. The Trevor Baeur suspension came out after the trade . . . which is going to add more pressure to the NFL to come down hard on Watson.
3 - The league takes forever to investigate players in general, but with so many women involved (and more cases getting prepped), it's taking the league even longer than usual. Their modus operandi is to complete their investigation, and THEN interrogate the player. That way, they have everyone else's side of the story and when players deny wrongdoing, they can hold their feet to the fire.
3A - The majority of posters here are men. Plenty of women are football fans (heck, the women I know buy way more NFL merchandise then men do). And there are plenty of sponsors that provide the league millions of dollars. Just like with Adrian Peterson, if sponsors threaten to back out, the league becomes forced to react and do something. Sure, the average male fan won't tune out, but plenty of other people may get uppity.
I have seen several places / people mention that the guidelines for a player suspension are outlined in the CBA as being 6 games. The problem with that is, those folks are simply lumping all the allegations together. IMO, the league can look at each allegation as a separate act and multiply the suspension times the number of allegations if they wanted (which I doubt they will do).
Additionally, the league has the reputation as being way too soft on their players for any number of infractions. This is their chance to reset how people look at them, establish a new normal for punishment, and show they have adapted to the new paradigm and culture we live in. The people I have been discussing things with (men and women) feel like a season-long suspension is too light.
If the league fully intended for Watson to play this year, it would have been very easy and straightforward to have agreed and settled on a negotiated suspension last week. All parties involved were said to have met and effectively got nowhere. The league could easily have set the bar at 6 or 8 games, but all the reports that have come from that are that the league is intent on a year (or longer) or indefinite suspension. If the league was only posturing to make themselves "look tough," then caving and only handing down a 6-8 game suspension would make them look 10 times worse than if they just determined a 6-8 game suspension initially. The other comparison I have heard from people is there is no way Ridley should get suspended for longer than Watson.
At this point, anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's. But IMO, I think the issue for the league is they are concerned there is a lot more that can come out involving Watson (in court, more filings, or criminal charges at some point) that they haven't figured out how best to incorporate that into a suspension.