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QB Deshaun Watson, CLE (3 Viewers)

I'm anti-suspension because I want the best product on the field.  Unless you do something extremely heinous I really don't care and Watson has not reached that level.

But that's me.

The NFL is a money printing operation but what makes me believe they'd like to bring the hammer down on Watson is 40% of NFL viewers are now women. People are going to watch football no matter who is playing, not alienating that female fan base(and based on some comments in this thread apparently a bunch of dudes as well) is something I think means more to the NFL then a team having to play without their starting QB for a year.

The game and product is just a lot bigger then Watson, like I said people are going to watch anyway and we are talking about one prime time game for the Browns that Watson even really possibly plays. Teams are getting sold for over $4 billion, many valued a lot more. If you are the NFL the easiest way to protect the golden goose IMO is to come down hard on Watson.
Just curious . . . how much money do you feel the league would lose if Watson sits for a year or a year and a half? The games will still be sold out. The TV revenue and sponsorship deals are already set up. A case could be made that the league would not lose anything financially. As you said, viewership won't drop if he can't play.

 
Just curious . . . how much money do you feel the league would lose if Watson sits for a year or a year and a half?
Next to none.

Biggest financial loss would probably be carried by Browns and possibly a few road opponents and that minimal loss would be related to potential no-shows/attendance at Browns games and impact that has on concession/parking sales. Pretty minimal in big picture.

 
Next to none.

Biggest financial loss would probably be carried by Browns and possibly a few road opponents and that minimal loss would be related to potential no-shows/attendance at Browns games and impact that has on concession/parking sales. Pretty minimal in big picture.
Let's give Watson 6 games. Not saying this would happen, but let's say there is an outrage by women and regional and national sponsors. Suppose the local Cleveland car dealership doesn't want anything to do with the Browns. Or Budweiser cuts back on commercials because they themselves are getting heat from their customers. Or people get miffed and don't buy merchandise or go to the NFL merchandise website. Wouldn't the league by more likely to be in a situation where they could mess with the golden goose by going light on Watson? Sure, maybe none of that happens . . . but some of that happened with Peterson, Vick, and Kaep (to name a few).

 
Let's give Watson 6 games. Not saying this would happen, but let's say there is an outrage by women and regional and national sponsors. Suppose the local Cleveland car dealership doesn't want anything to do with the Browns. Or Budweiser cuts back on commercials because they themselves are getting heat from their customers. Or people get miffed and don't buy merchandise or go to the NFL merchandise website. Wouldn't the league by more likely to be in a situation where they could mess with the golden goose by going light on Watson? Sure, maybe none of that happens . . . but some of that happened with Peterson, Vick, and Kaep (to name a few).


Not sure if you are asking me the question in bolded but yes, that's what I was alluding to.

It's all hypothetical of course that it would ever hurt the league if they went light on him. By time the next TV contracts are due this might be long forgotten but when you are dealing with this kind of money it just makes more prudent long term financial sense to be on the right side of PR and not take any unnecessary risks of turning off a portion of your fan base and eventually advertisers and TV money.

 
Just heard something on the Dan Patrick show that I hadn't heard before: As has been stated, either side can appeal the judge's ruling, but if she recommends no suspension then the NFL cannot appeal. I was distracted briefly during the explanation for actual reason for this, but it was something to do with the combination of the grand jury not going forward and this judge's  ruling. Basically saying if 2 entities said no punishment it removes NFL ability to appeal.

Patrick typically has very reliable sources, but I had not heard this scenario before. I would guess there is a very small chance this plays out, but it did make me think "what if" and what the public fall out would be if this occurs. 
 The PCP is at: https://interactive.khou.com/pdfs/2020-Personal-Conduct-Policy-External.pdf

 My non-lawyer reading of it suggests page 5, last sentence in Appeals of Discipline mentions: "Any factual findings and evidentiary determinations of the Disciplinary Officer will be binding to the parties on appeal, and the decision of the Commissioner or his designee, which may overturn, reduce, modify, or increase the discipline previously issued, will be final and binding on all parties."

Focus on the "any factual findings" part. So if the Disciplinary Officer says, no evidence supporting a violation occurred, that's not allowed to be changed during the appeal. Only a punishment would. League can't appeal and say, there's evidence of a violation because they can't change the evidence rulings.

I think maybe what is going on with the part you mention about the 2 entities... it is sort of that but in a different way.  If a court gave a finding of guilt in a case, that ruling stands in the NFL.  That is if a court finds them guilty then it doesn't matter what the D.O. says, they are considered as breaking the PCP.  However it explicitly says not being found guilty in a court decision doesn't mean a no-violation of the policy, and that's when the D.O. gets involved.

 
The "recommended no suspension" angle and inability for the league to do anything about it has been mentioned multiple times in this thread.
Sorry. Guess I haven't read all the posts as closely as I thought or should have.

 
I think the league would be all right with 6-8 games. I don't think they are, at the core, as overwhelmed by the provable behavior as a lot of people who are less involved in dealing with the behaviors of 1,500 other 20 to 30 year olds who make their livings bashing their opponents' brains out. I don't think at all, though, that they can SAY they are willing to accept a 6-8 week ban. That makes them complicit in 'letting Watson off easy.' If they can say the arbitrator did it, we wanted a lot more, they look like fighters for justice. 
THIS

which is why the NFL has had its media cohort pushing the max penalty angle.

the NFL has cover to say "we really tried, but that damn retired judge reduced it"

 
Capella said:
The Texans absolutely pulling the wool down over the Browns and unloading this guy for all those picks is going to go down as a historic train robbery 
JJ-Dallas-Herschel Walker...it could make the ascent up to Mt Rushmore status. 

 
Stinkin Ref said:
everybody thinking they "had to know" is different then proving that they did in fact "know" the full extent of what was going on in these sessions....
Silence is Violence or did you stop getting the memos? 😉

 
5 hours ago, bro1ncos said:
Just heard something on the Dan Patrick show that I hadn't heard before: As has been stated, either side can appeal the judge's ruling, but if she recommends no suspension then the NFL cannot appeal. I was distracted briefly during the explanation for actual reason for this, but it was something to do with the combination of the grand jury not going forward and this judge's  ruling. Basically saying if 2 entities said no punishment it removes NFL ability to appeal.

Patrick typically has very reliable sources, but I had not heard this scenario before. I would guess there is a very small chance this plays out, but it did make me think "what if" and what the public fall out would be if this occurs. 
Expand  
 The PCP is at: https://interactive.khou.com/pdfs/2020-Personal-Conduct-Policy-External.pdf

 My non-lawyer reading of it suggests page 5, last sentence in Appeals of Discipline mentions: "Any factual findings and evidentiary determinations of the Disciplinary Officer will be binding to the parties on appeal, and the decision of the Commissioner or his designee, which may overturn, reduce, modify, or increase the discipline previously issued, will be final and binding on all parties."

Focus on the "any factual findings" part. So if the Disciplinary Officer says, no evidence supporting a violation occurred, that's not allowed to be changed during the appeal. Only a punishment would. League can't appeal and say, there's evidence of a violation because they can't change the evidence rulings.

I think maybe what is going on with the part you mention about the 2 entities... it is sort of that but in a different way.  If a court gave a finding of guilt in a case, that ruling stands in the NFL.  That is if a court finds them guilty then it doesn't matter what the D.O. says, they are considered as breaking the PCP.  However it explicitly says not being found guilty in a court decision doesn't mean a no-violation of the policy, and that's when the D.O. gets involved.


The way it was described in a podcast I heard a week or so ago is that, on appeal, Goddell can increase or reduce the time of the suspension but he can't change a finding as to whether a suspension is warranted or not under the CBA. 

https://www.conductdetrimental.com/

 
Had to drive to pick up a new kitchen faucet and Florio was on with the local sports radio. Take with appropriate salt but I thought one of his comments was very intriguing.

He was asked about the story that the league would settle for 6-8 games. Florio said he thought that, and it's conflicting with the other leak, was probably more a sign of not everyone in the league office being on the same page.

However, he made one other comment which is the intriguing one. Before he went into that bit at more length, he said something along the lines of his first impression was that the league was trying to play the judge. As in, leak they are ok with 6-8 games. The judge goes with that. And then the league can appeal and set it to whatever they want. That what the league doesn't want is a "no discipline". As long as he's disciplined, they can end up making it what they want.

I don't know that I agree that's what happened, and from his wording I don't know that Florio actually believed it either. But it is an interesting thought just the same that the league doesn't need to care what the discipline is, long as there is some.

 
Florio also had another potential outcome which he said could be considered. After the fact, since Watson didn’t play last season, have him forfeit / repay his $10 million salary from last year and count that as a season long suspension. Then suspend him 8 games this season. It would go in the books as a season a half suspension. 

I’m not sure the league would really buy into last year as Watson having been suspended. The Texans would sign off on that. They would get $10 million back and then have another $10 million in cap space added. 

 
Day two of Deshaun Watson's hearing before the NFL and NFL Players Association's jointly appointed disciplinary officer, Sue L. Robinson, has ended for the day and will continue Thursday, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.

 
Week 13 is Browns at Texans - Have to think the league at least has some interest in seeing that happen. It aligns fine with an 8 game suspension. 

 
so (some) people on this forum think a suspension (or lack of) will have ANY effect on nfl games/ratings/product/revenue? 

for real real? 

 
so (some) people on this forum think a suspension (or lack of) will have ANY effect on nfl games/ratings/product/revenue? 

for real real? 
IMHO "No suspension" has a chance to be minimally impactful to actual ratings. Between media coverage and individuals on social media, I think there's a few weeks of blowback that that by-and-large blows over before the regular season starts but then kicks back up whenever there's a big browns game. 

 
so (some) people on this forum think a suspension (or lack of) will have ANY effect on nfl games/ratings/product/revenue? 

for real real? 
“Any”? Yes, although you’re asking something immeasurable 

 enough to make it a real factor and destroy the league? No. 

 
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so (some) people on this forum think a suspension (or lack of) will have ANY effect on nfl games/ratings/product/revenue? 

for real real? 
No suspension may have a minimal effect with protests and women being “turned off”.

A suspension would have zero effect. No one tunes in to watch DeShaun Watson - despite him being a great player.

 
Not sure if you are asking me the question in bolded but yes, that's what I was alluding to.

It's all hypothetical of course that it would ever hurt the league if they went light on him. By time the next TV contracts are due this might be long forgotten but when you are dealing with this kind of money it just makes more prudent long term financial sense to be on the right side of PR and not take any unnecessary risks of turning off a portion of your fan base and eventually advertisers and TV money.
There is also the possibility that the league wants this to be done, that they see it as a short term annoyance that will eventually be in the rearview mirror, and are working to that end.  I don't see it affecting TV contracts unless they get a reputation of shadiness leaguewide.

 
There appears to be some logic to what the league is asking for. In the PCP, there is a section on DV and sexual offenses that states the first incident comes with a 6 game suspension (or more with mitigating circumstances). A second offense lists that the punishment is banishment from the league (which effectively translates to an indefinite suspension).

There’s a lot of gray in there to debate. First, is what DW is alleged to have done at the level intended for those penalties? Second, does that warrant more than 6 games as a first offense? And third, what makes a second offense? Is that AFTER being punished? Or does more than one incident kick in the indefinite suspension as a repeat offender?

 
so (some) people on this forum think a suspension (or lack of) will have ANY effect on nfl games/ratings/product/revenue? 

for real real? 


There appears to be some logic to what the league is asking for. In the PCP, there is a section on DV and sexual offenses that states the first incident comes with a 6 game suspension (or more with mitigating circumstances). A second offense lists that the punishment is banishment from the league (which effectively translates to an indefinite suspension).

There’s a lot of gray in there to debate. First, is what DW is alleged to have done at the level intended for those penalties? Second, does that warrant more than 6 games as a first offense? And third, what makes a second offense? Is that AFTER being punished? Or does more than one incident kick in the indefinite suspension as a repeat offender?
that, of course, presumes he actually committed any "sexual offenses"

which clearly has not been established, other than thru allegations denied by Watson

 
Week 13 is Browns at Texans - Have to think the league at least has some interest in seeing that happen. It aligns fine with an 8 game suspension. 
IMO, I doubt they care too much. This isn’t Farve coming back to Lambeau to play the Packers for instance. Texans are a dumpster fire in a rebuild with a history of ineptitude and Watson’s circumstances are shameful and a black mark on the league. Certainly controversy = ratings, but the Texans will probably be at best 4-7 when Cleveland comes to town so outside of a few people looking to see if he trounces his former team, I doubt most will care about any kind of revenge game storyline.

 
CLE at HOU is one of 8 early games. TEN  plays at PHI and BAL plays at DEN in the same time slot. Not sure the Browns / Texans will get more than local coverage in their respective home markets. 

 
so (some) people on this forum think a suspension (or lack of) will have ANY effect on nfl games/ratings/product/revenue? 

for real real? 
And as far as I know, the revenue from broadcasts is fixed for the duration of the contract.  So if tomorrow's game is high rated or low rated, the league makes just as much for now, the amount that the network broadcasting it contracted at.

If ratings are generally higher or lower then the next contract price will be impacted. Is Watson going to cause much of a swing by himself?  I think it's unlikely.  The ratings went up 10% in 2021 when he sat out a season. Not that they are linked, just, obviously one player didn't overcome everything else that goes into 270+ regular season games plus the playoffs.

 
bingo. so absolutely zero impact... not literal zero, but in terms of the nfl's bottom line, i can bet my life that profit goes up AGAIN this season, whether he gets 0 games 6, 8, or 17. 

 
bingo. so absolutely zero impact... not literal zero, but in terms of the nfl's bottom line, i can bet my life that profit goes up AGAIN this season, whether he gets 0 games 6, 8, or 17. 


Sorry, what did you prove here? It's more of a reason to just get rid of him. Think the NFL loves everybody reading about Watson's wet spots every week?

 
I'd say the biggest financial risk is too light of a punishment that might push people on the fence who are disgusted with his behavior, into no longer buying merchandise or going to games. Tickets and merchandise profits aren't locked in long term like broadcast rights are. 

I don't know exactly what "too light" is, and it'll be a spectrum that varies by person.  Though after being given the huge fully guaranteed contract, and structured in a way that limits the hit of a 2022 suspension, I think the bar has risen for what it would take to not turn away that segment. 

 
that, of course, presumes he actually committed any "sexual offenses"

which clearly has not been established, other than thru allegations denied by Watson
If I understand correctly, the league must investigate and decide that they believe someone has violated the PCP.  At that point, they go to the arbitrator, present their evidence, and ask for a penalty.  The player also presents evidence and/or arguments.  So, if they're presenting stuff, I think it means that the league is convinced that he violated the PCP.  It also looks like there are guidelines within the policy for length of suspension.  It seems that the league would be constrained to those terms.

 
Sorry, what did you prove here? It's more of a reason to just get rid of him. Think the NFL loves everybody reading about Watson's wet spots every week?
Exactly - @Soulfly3 is inadvertently saying Watson could be suspended for 17 games (or forever, really) and the NFL wouldn't suffer for it at all. 

As compared to being in the news every day because of Watson's fetish for (allegedly) non-consensual happy endings. 

 
If I understand correctly, the league must investigate and decide that they believe someone has violated the PCP.  At that point, they go to the arbitrator, present their evidence, and ask for a penalty.  The player also presents evidence and/or arguments.  So, if they're presenting stuff, I think it means that the league is convinced that he violated the PCP.  It also looks like there are guidelines within the policy for length of suspension.  It seems that the league would be constrained to those terms.
Since I'm working the county fair, I am driving home at 11:00-ish every night, which affords me the opportunity to listen to Ben Mallar. He laid it out that arbitration is a potential step, only if team Watson disagrees with the penalty handed down by the NFL. 

It is also a step with significant risk to team Watson, as the NFL may offer a 1 year suspension, but an arbitrator may see whatever evidence the NFL has gathered and decide it is worthy of being indefinite, or even permanent. 

But as I understood it, arbitration is a choice, not an automatic part of he process. 

 
Sorry, what did you prove here? It's more of a reason to just get rid of him. Think the NFL loves everybody reading about Watson's wet spots every week?


im not trying to prove anything... just pointing out how one player, regardless of the level of dementedness they may possess, will never affect the product. 

this is a weird story, but will sooner than later be a distant memory. whether he's suspended for 0 games, or a lifetime. the show goes on, bigger than before.

 
since we're about to get a ruling, Id put the odds of suspension as the follow:

8 games - 60%

full season - 25%

0 games - 1%

Other 14%

 
im not trying to prove anything... just pointing out how one player, regardless of the level of dementedness they may possess, will never affect the product. 
But they do effect the product, if they are in the news daily for skeezy things. It reflects on the product. Daily updates have an affect on the public interest. Failure for the NFL to take what is perceived as "decisive action" will reflect poorly on some fans, and can and will cost them business. 

Your statement is a partial truth. The player can be suspended for life and the NFL will go on, business as usual - that's correct. But that is not the same as saying the player has no effect on the product. 

this is a weird story, but will sooner than later be a distant memory. whether he's suspended for 0 games, or a lifetime. the show goes on, bigger than before.
Probably so. America has a short attention span. This story has survived quite a few more news cycles than most though, and I expect it will continue to do so until the remaining civil suits are resolved. 

 
since we're about to get a ruling, Id put the odds of suspension as the follow:

8 games - 60%

full season - 25%

0 games - 1%

Other 14%
if the reports are accurate that a full season suspension tolls his contract with no loss of money, there is 0 chance of full season suspension, unless they make 2021 time served.

probably sits 4-6 games, with directive to the broad cast crews to bury it

 
Since I'm working the county fair, I am driving home at 11:00-ish every night, which affords me the opportunity to listen to Ben Mallar. He laid it out that arbitration is a potential step, only if team Watson disagrees with the penalty handed down by the NFL. 

It is also a step with significant risk to team Watson, as the NFL may offer a 1 year suspension, but an arbitrator may see whatever evidence the NFL has gathered and decide it is worthy of being indefinite, or even permanent. 

But as I understood it, arbitration is a choice, not an automatic part of he process. 
Okay.  That's not my understanding.  Maybe the guy was talking about appealing the decision.  The way I heard it was that the intention was to take it out of commish's hands and that's why it goes to arbitration.  New in the CBA.  I can see the possibility of the league and the player making a deal beforehand, though.  In this case, it's already being presented.  

 
Okay.  That's not my understanding.  Maybe the guy was talking about appealing the decision.  The way I heard it was that the intention was to take it out of commish's hands and that's why it goes to arbitration.  New in the CBA.  I can see the possibility of the league and the player making a deal beforehand, though.  In this case, it's already being presented.  
I think that is what Maller was describing - the NFL is going to say to team Watson, "we were going to pursue an indefinite suspension, but we would accept a 1 year". 

And if team Watson isn't on board, then it goes to arbitration. 

So yeah, we're probably saying the same thing - there's just a step prior to arbitration where they can come to an agreement/compromise. 

 
if the reports are accurate that a full season suspension tolls his contract with no loss of money, there is 0 chance of full season suspension, unless they make 2021 time served.

probably sits 4-6 games, with directive to the broad cast crews to bury it
I have no idea what you're trying to say here. Your If/Then statement makes no sense. Why would one have any relation to the other? The NFL doesn't care if Watson suffers no financial damages, and if anything, if the Browns don't suffer a financial penalty, that's even more reason to give him a year. 

And what do you mean "with directive to the broadcast crews to bury it"? 

 
I think there is a 50 / 50 chance it is an indefinite suspension or one year. You can read that as 9O% it is one of them.  Probably 10% chance of anything else.

 
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