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QB Jarrett Stidham, DEN (1 Viewer)

Tool said:
Anyone who thinks the Pats will be a 5 or 6 win team is either a complete moron or trying to get attention.
Anarchy99 makes some very good points, but this is a team that could just as easily only be a 5 or 6 win team and that's even with being in the same division as the Jets and Dolphins.  I have stock in Stidham so I hope he does well, but that's not a forgone conclusion.

 
Anarchy99 makes some very good points, but this is a team that could just as easily only be a 5 or 6 win team and that's even with being in the same division as the Jets and Dolphins.  I have stock in Stidham so I hope he does well, but that's not a forgone conclusion.
Assuming Stidham is an abject disaster and no receiving threats are added and post Scarneccia oline regression, Pats win 7.5 games. 

9.5 games +/- 2 seems about right.

Odds of 5.5 wins are about as likely as 14.5 wins imo.

 
Based on all of what I have seen over the past month sitting around doing nothing, either the Pats are truly enamored with Stidham or they will have perpetrated one of the greatest institutional-wide cons I have ever seen. 

I have seen multiple people report that when they asked about the NE plans at QB,   sources all indicate it’s Stidham. Back at the combine, when asked about progress with Brady NE said there was none. When asked what Plan B was, they said Stidham. 

I still see COUNTLESS people putting NE on Newton, Winston, or Dalton. Or moving up to grab someone in the first round. But there are so many people saying that with a precursor that THERE’S NO WAY they are riding with Stidham. They are so quick to dismiss it that they don’t even bother to discuss it. 

More has come out that there were no negotiations with Brady. He just said he was done and that was that. Like I said, their stance has been they are going with Stidham. It will be fascinating to find out if they are bluffing or if the media COMPLETELY has this wrong. 

 
Here’s the perfect example. Hypothetical trade outlined here that would get NE the #7 pick this year to snag a QB. The cost? Their first rounder this year AND next year, two 3rd rounders this year, AND G Joe Thuney. 

 
Here’s the perfect example. Hypothetical trade outlined here that would get NE the #7 pick this year to snag a QB. The cost? Their first rounder this year AND next year, two 3rd rounders this year, AND G Joe Thuney. 
While I am on the same page with you that they are going with Stidham (asterik being the draft is the last hurdle) I don't blame anyone for thinking the Pats are not gonna do it...it is pretty logical for many to think replacing the GOAT after 20 years with a 4th round pick going into his second year with literally no experience is not logical...for anyone other then BB it probably isn't logical...for 20 years he has made a multitude of moves that went against the grain and this is just the latest.

 
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More of the same . . .

Almost a month after Tom Brady left, Patriots have done a masterful job keeping QB plan a secret

I don't think it has been much of a secret at all, but maybe they will do something in the draft.
I think most of us that pay attention to cap space and other things outside the layman fan know that they have limited options, and can’t “easily sign cam Newton” as the author suggests. To the average fan (or yahoo sports author) it’s hard to believe that this dynasty would move on from the GOAT and start a 4th round 2nd year player or Hoyer, but they can’t sign a veteran and likely will miss out on the top QB prospects. 
It’s also not hard to believe that Brian Flores (rival team coach formerly with the pats) might have insight as to who the pats were scouting last year and that he might share that with his gm. 

 
I think most of us that pay attention to cap space and other things outside the layman fan know that they have limited options, and can’t “easily sign cam Newton” as the author suggests. To the average fan (or yahoo sports author) it’s hard to believe that this dynasty would move on from the GOAT and start a 4th round 2nd year player or Hoyer, but they can’t sign a veteran and likely will miss out on the top QB prospects. 
It’s also not hard to believe that Brian Flores (rival team coach formerly with the pats) might have insight as to who the pats were scouting last year and that he might share that with his gm. 
I am fairly confident that NE scouts a ton of players (not uncovering any new ground here . . . so does every team) and will have their eye on even more players given that they had an extra month this year getting bounced early in the playoffs. NE has so many ex-coaches throughout the league that there will be a lot of teams that will have at least some idea who NE will be looking at.

I would guess there are only a select few people that really know what is going on in NE with regard to QB . . . BB, Josh McDaniels, Nick Caserio (director of player personnel), Monti Ossenfort (director of college scouting), and Mick Lombardi (QB coach).

As you said, signing Newton or Winston doesn't fit their budget, and neither does trading for Stafford or Dalton. As the article I linked (accurately) pointed out, they don't have enough high level draft picks to make a splash in the draft (in addition to having pressing needs at other positions). 

So as far as NE and QB options in the draft go, they could wait to see if one fell to them at 23 (possible), see if someone they are in love with starts falling and they give a team a sweetener to move up a couple of spots (maybe possible), they trade back or trade up to get a second round pick to take someone that falls (not sure who that is), or they hope a guy that is projected way higher falls to the third round (more likely as a plan), or they take the kid from FIU (Morgan) as a late round pick. That being said, I don't think they are going to take a QB early, so it will either be a guy that falls to the middle rounds or a developmental guy.

If they do feel the need to grab a QB and don't get who they want in the draft, we can revisit the possibility of them acquiring a veteran signal caller after the draft. Maybe one of the veteran QBs will be desperate enough to take a one year, low dollar deal. But that also assumes they aren't ready to hand the keys to Stidham. IMO, it makes more sense to see if Stidham can be a capable cheap option than it does to bring in someone that they can't afford, can't sign long term, and takes snaps away from Stidham.

 
Anarchy. For next 5 yrs who do you think Belichick would rather have. Jimmy G or Stidham?
Not a realistic question. NE couldn’t keep Brady and Jimmy G. 

We have no idea how JG would have fared in NE. We got to see him play 6 quarters for the Pats. Not a lot to go on. 

We also have no idea if they like Stidham more, less, or the same as JG. 

Also Stidham will only cost $2.5 million over the next three seasons total. Jimmy G  would have been on a $25-30 million a year contract by now.  Is Jimmy G worth 33 times the pay of Stidham? That’s based on this year’s pay scale. 
 

 
One incoming rookie QB that may meet your criteria and seems like a natural fit: Jake Fromm. Poor final college season likely depresses where he will go in the draft, but has the tools BB and company can use.

 
One incoming rookie QB that may meet your criteria and seems like a natural fit: Jake Fromm. Poor final college season likely depresses where he will go in the draft, but has the tools BB and company can use.
Seems like you're talking about Stidham. 

If Fromm is drafted round 3 or 4, how is that any different? Honest question. I like Fromm a lot, and I see him as in a similar situation to Stidham, however Stidham has a better arm. 

Everyone gets hung up on draft capital for Stidham; "their plan cant be to turn it over to a 4th round 2nd year player who had a bad last college season."

It's hard for me to see how drafting a rookie round 3 or 4 is better than "handing over the offense to a 2nd year 4th round qb." And that's not a knock on you, I've heard this tune all off season. 

 
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Seems like you're talking about Stidham. 

If Fromm is drafted round 3 or 4, how is that any different? Honest question. I like Fromm a lot, and I see him as in a similar situation to Stidham, however Stidham has a better arm. 

Everyone gets hung up on draft capital for Stidham; "their plan cant be to turn it over to a 4th round 2nd year player who had a bad last college season."

It's hard for me to see how drafting a rookie round 3 or 4 is better than "handing over the offense to a 2nd year 4th round qb." And that's not a knock on you, I've heard this tune all off season. 
I don't disagree here.  I'm just noting that this seems like something that could very well happen and possibly meets Anarchy's criteria below.  At the very least, it would be a QB competition.

Anarchy99 said:
So as far as NE and QB options in the draft go, they could wait to see if one fell to them at 23 (possible), see if someone they are in love with starts falling and they give a team a sweetener to move up a couple of spots (maybe possible), they trade back or trade up to get a second round pick to take someone that falls (not sure who that is), or they hope a guy that is projected way higher falls to the third round (more likely as a plan), or they take the kid from FIU (Morgan) as a late round pick. That being said, I don't think they are going to take a QB early, so it will either be a guy that falls to the middle rounds or a developmental guy.

 
Depending how the draft goes, I see NE trading for Alex Smith assuming he is healthy. Smith is only due a salary of $16 million this year. That $16 million is about how much the remainder of the bonus that would be accelerated from 2021/2022 to 2020 for the Redskins. The money would be a wash for Washington. NE could even convert this year's salary to the veteran minimum and a $15 million bonus spread over three seasons. Smith's cap hit could be a mere $6 million this year.

 
I don't disagree here.  I'm just noting that this seems like something that could very well happen and possibly meets Anarchy's criteria below.  At the very least, it would be a QB competition.
To further my thought on this, IMO, NE will look to add someone with potential upside but someone who is not a huge investment in either draft capital or dollars. I think they want someone that could push Stidham some (but not too much), as they want Stidham to win the job. That's why I don't think they will move up or take a QB in the first round, and theoretically if Stidham has a first round arm and pedigree, he should win the job (especially already being in their system and having a more active role last year than most first year QBs typically do).

In BB's presser yesterday, he said there will be an open competition at QB and no one has won anything yet. That literally is the same speech he gives the first day of any new season. Does anyone really think Brian Hoyer is going to beat out Stidham when he didn't last year (and was released)? People forget that Stidham was a five-star recruit and the combination of an injury as a freshman, program issues at Baylor, and transferring to a school that doesn't run a pro system left him off the radar. There are still NFL scouts that think of him as a first round talent (meaning his 

I also found it interesting that in the NFL team talent evaluation chart currently circulating out there that NE is ranked 32nd in terms of their QB situation with a score of 0.1. (Sorry, can't find the chart at the moment.) IIRC, Tampa is now ranked 6th at QB with a score of 3.6. IMO, Tampa should be ranked higher than NE . . . but I would bet dollars to doughnuts that NE is not going to rank last in the league in QB production this year. Scale wise, I also don't think Brady in Tampa is 36 times better than NE is with Stidham. IMO, those two rankings will converge some and the two teams will rank a lot closer in the middle.

 
Depending how the draft goes, I see NE trading for Alex Smith assuming he is healthy. Smith is only due a salary of $16 million this year. That $16 million is about how much the remainder of the bonus that would be accelerated from 2021/2022 to 2020 for the Redskins. The money would be a wash for Washington. NE could even convert this year's salary to the veteran minimum and a $15 million bonus spread over three seasons. Smith's cap hit could be a mere $6 million this year.
I was onboard for Alex Smith potentially ending up in NE awhile ago . . . but that ship has likely sailed. For starters, they can't afford Smith's $16 million salary as NE currently has only $1 million in cap space. If Washington opted to move on from Smith, they would have to eat $32.2 million as a dead cap hit. Next, Smith will be 36 and hasn't played in a year and a half. No one knows how healthy he is, and given the moratorium on travel, no sane team is going to consider him without a comprehensive physical. IIRC, the Redskins had a potential out if they had released Smith prior to 3/17. After that, his 2020 salary became guaranteed. The path I envisioned Smith ending up on the Patriots was if Washington released him and NE swooped him up for a short-term, league minimum contract. He's not worth $16 million a year at this point. (He would also be due $19 million in 2021 and $21 million in 2022.) I can't see any team trading for that contract, nor do I see WAS eating that big of a cap hit. It looks like Smith will be a Redskin again this year.

 
I was onboard for Alex Smith potentially ending up in NE awhile ago . . . but that ship has likely sailed. For starters, they can't afford Smith's $16 million salary as NE currently has only $1 million in cap space. If Washington opted to move on from Smith, they would have to eat $32.2 million as a dead cap hit. Next, Smith will be 36 and hasn't played in a year and a half. No one knows how healthy he is, and given the moratorium on travel, no sane team is going to consider him without a comprehensive physical. IIRC, the Redskins had a potential out if they had released Smith prior to 3/17. After that, his 2020 salary became guaranteed. The path I envisioned Smith ending up on the Patriots was if Washington released him and NE swooped him up for a short-term, league minimum contract. He's not worth $16 million a year at this point. (He would also be due $19 million in 2021 and $21 million in 2022.) I can't see any team trading for that contract, nor do I see WAS eating that big of a cap hit. It looks like Smith will be a Redskin again this year.
Your numbers aren't right as far as I can tell regarding dead money. Unless Washington is still on the hook for Smith's salary this year even with a trade. Smith is due $16 million salary. Washington has to account for that and 1/5 of the $27 million bonus ($5.4 million) for a total of $21.4 million this year. Still $10.8 million yet to be accounted in 2021/2022. Trading Smith, the receiving team would pay the $16 million salary, but the other $10.8 million would accelerate to this year for a total of $16.2 million. Cutting him, yes, Washington would have a cap hit of $32.2 million this year instead of $21.4 million if he stayed or $16.2 million if another team paid his salary. The 2021 and 2022 salaries are not guaranteed. If he does well, he would definitely be worth it those prices.

My main point was mostly a proven player could be worked into the salary cap for only $6 million (this year, kicking $10 million to the next 1-2 years). Again, assuming health.

 
Your numbers aren't right as far as I can tell regarding dead money. Unless Washington is still on the hook for Smith's salary this year even with a trade. Smith is due $16 million salary. Washington has to account for that and 1/5 of the $27 million bonus ($5.4 million) for a total of $21.4 million this year. Still $10.8 million yet to be accounted in 2021/2022. Trading Smith, the receiving team would pay the $16 million salary, but the other $10.8 million would accelerate to this year for a total of $16.2 million. Cutting him, yes, Washington would have a cap hit of $32.2 million this year instead of $21.4 million if he stayed or $16.2 million if another team paid his salary. The 2021 and 2022 salaries are not guaranteed. If he does well, he would definitely be worth it those prices.

My main point was mostly a proven player could be worked into the salary cap for only $6 million (this year, kicking $10 million to the next 1-2 years). Again, assuming health.
Yeah, you are right about the 2020 salary trade element. WAS would only eat the $32.2 million in a pre-June first release. If they traded him now, they would only have to eat $16.2 million. If they waited until after 6/1 to trade him, they could split that cap hit amount over two years.

Either way, the acquiring team must be able to accept the player for his current annual salary and be under the salary cap at the time the trade is completed. Teams can renegotiate after the trade. So NE would have to have $16 million in cap space available at the time they completed a trade for Smith. Not sure on the rules for spacing out Smith's cap hit. His salary this year is now fully guaranteed, so why he would want to kick that out into another year when he could be cut wouldn't make sense (unless he would still be guaranteed the money). NE likely wouldn't want to take on his contract in a trade anyway, as I doubt they would want to eat $16 million if he doesn't even end up making the team. No one knows if Smith is even a viable option at this point.

 
. but I would bet dollars to doughnuts that NE is not going to rank last in the league in QB production this year. 
If they add no one else and it's only Stidham and Hoyer, while the odds are likely against it, it's totally possible.

We have no idea how Stidham will look against real NFL defenses that prepare for him and it's not like the Pats have improved their weapons - outside of potential second year improvements from Harry and Meyers. Which NFL teams will be going into the season with a markedly worse passing game? Cincinnati, San Diego, Miami are the only ones that jump out "on paper" outside of established QBs going down to injury.

Now I'm not saying it's impossible for Stidham to come out and look good to great either, but lets not act like that's a given either.

 
If they add no one else and it's only Stidham and Hoyer, while the odds are likely against it, it's totally possible.

We have no idea how Stidham will look against real NFL defenses that prepare for him and it's not like the Pats have improved their weapons - outside of potential second year improvements from Harry and Meyers. Which NFL teams will be going into the season with a markedly worse passing game? Cincinnati, San Diego, Miami are the only ones that jump out "on paper" outside of established QBs going down to injury.

Now I'm not saying it's impossible for Stidham to come out and look good to great either, but lets not act like that's a given either.
The easiest bad outcome for NE is that Stidham gets hurt early and misses the season. That would be a disaster. Other than that, I am less concerned for a number of reasons.

Let's go back two years ago. the Chiefs got a really good season from the aforementioned Alex Smith. He was the highest rated passer in the league in 2017 . . . and they decided to move on to Mahomes instead. Andy Reid is no dummy and knew what he had, but people at the time looked at Mahomes as an unproven work in progress. Fantasy wise, I pieced together that the Chiefs organization would not be getting rid of Smith unless they had a Maserati in the garage ready to go. I gobbled up Mahomes in every league I was in in 2018, bar none.

Now let's take a look at the NE QB situation. Last offseason, I remember hearing Brady a couple of times sounding frustrated that things weren't clicking with the offense, he couldn't move the ball in practice, and the NE defense was THAT GOOD. Sure, he didn't end up liking his weapons and didn't want to work with newbie receivers, but my takeaway then was "if Brady is saying he can't move the ball against their defense, BUY BUY BUY the Patriots DEF/ST unit for fantasy."

Several things have come out in the last few weeks. 1) Brady and NE pretty much knew last year was the end of the line (when he got a raise but removed the franchise card from the deck), 2) NE has not dipped into the QB pool since then other than to draft Stidham, and 3) NE defenders have started coming out saying that Stidham had carved them up in practice last year. Mind you, this is the same defense that TB12 said he couldn't move the ball against. Maybe that is just the defense trying to build up the confidence of a young QB, but I get the sense that they actually believe the kid can play.

Since the season ended, it has also come out that NE made no attempt to bring Brady back (at least that's how it appears). Allegedly, they didn't even make him an offer. There was no last minute outcry by Kraft to give him a godfather offer to stay. As crazy as it sounds, I don't think it would be out of the question to at least wonder if BB gave some consideration to play Stidham LAST YEAR (or if he was told he couldn't).

Admittedly, we don't know what we don't know and Stidham hasn't done anything yet. However, even if NE does nothing to make improvements on offense (and they clearly will add pieces and young players to the mix) . . .

- Stidham and Jacobi Meyers played like they each had a sixth sense in the offseason last year.
- Edelman should at least start the season healthier (not sure he will hold up).
- Sanu played in one game and got a high ankle sprain that had him at about 60% the rest of the way.
- Harry got dumped into the battle more than halfway into the season when Brady had no interest in developing new players (knowing he was leaving).
- The OL gets C David Andrews back, G Shaq Mason can go back to his regular spot, and they brought back G Joe Thuney (at least for now).
- They get LT Isiaiah Wynn healthier to start the season (at least as healthy as he gets) and RT Marcus Cannon should start out healthy and not have to move around.
- Redshirted rookies and all impossible names to spell candidates OT Yodny Cajuste and G Hijalte Froholdt will be back after sitting out the season.
- FB James Develin should be back (he had previously been a mainstay in the running game).
- RB Damien Harris had a year to learn, and they still have a decent backfield and James White as a receiving threat.

The point being, even if they don't add anyone, the offense should be better than last year with better health and a number of players coming back from injury. True, they have the worst TE situation in the league, and I would not rule out a trade to bring in an established player. I would guess they will probably add a couple of WR and a TE in the draft (although who knows what the evil genius will do). In this case, what BB ISN'T DOING speaks volumes to what he thinks of Stidham (at least at this point). That all could change after the draft is over, but Stidham is getting pretty close to the finish line of becoming the starter.
 

 
If they add no one else and it's only Stidham and Hoyer, while the odds are likely against it, it's totally possible.

We have no idea how Stidham will look against real NFL defenses that prepare for him and it's not like the Pats have improved their weapons - outside of potential second year improvements from Harry and Meyers. Which NFL teams will be going into the season with a markedly worse passing game? Cincinnati, San Diego, Miami are the only ones that jump out "on paper" outside of established QBs going down to injury.

Now I'm not saying it's impossible for Stidham to come out and look good to great either, but lets not act like that's a given either.
Agreed...as a Pats fan I am fine because I subscribe to the “in Bill we Trust” motto but the room for error here is dramatic...I am excited to see Stidham but if he is not ready or he gets injured they are in big trouble With Hoyer under center for an extended period of time...I really hope they use a second to fourth round pick on another QB to have another potential option at best or a solid backup QB for 3-4 years at worst...

 
Let's go back two years ago. the Chiefs got a really good season from the aforementioned Alex Smith. He was the highest rated passer in the league in 2017 . . . and they decided to move on to Mahomes instead. Andy Reid is no dummy and knew what he had, but people at the time looked at Mahomes as an unproven work in progress. Fantasy wise, I pieced together that the Chiefs organization would not be getting rid of Smith unless they had a Maserati in the garage ready to go. I gobbled up Mahomes in every league I was in in 2018, bar none.
Oh, never-mind. I didn't realize Stidham was comparable to Mahomes. My bad. 

 
Oh, never-mind. I didn't realize Stidham was comparable to Mahomes. My bad. 
Clearly he's not . . . but I think heading into the season that "NE STARTING QB" is worth more than the worst starter in the league designation. All of this is folly anyway, as we have no idea what the future holds. I am *NOT* comparing Stidham to any of these guys, but things worked out in the end when:

Rodgers replaced Favre
Young replaced Montana
Brady replaced Bledsoe

At the time, we didn't know what Rivers would do taking over for Brees, what Brees would do in NOS, what Wilson would do in Seattle, etc. The one reason I would have to side on the things-won't-work-out-like-those-other-guys is they generally speaking took over really good teams and already had some decent weapons. Maybe teams lucked into good QB's, maybe it was the coaching or the system, maybe there were a lot of factors, who knows.

It's unlikely Stidham will become even a quarter of what Brady was. But I don't think he is going to completely fall on his face either.

 
Clearly he's not . . . but I think heading into the season that "NE STARTING QB" is worth more than the worst starter in the league designation. All of this is folly anyway, as we have no idea what the future holds. I am *NOT* comparing Stidham to any of these guys, but things worked out in the end when:

Rodgers replaced Favre
Young replaced Montana
Brady replaced Bledsoe

At the time, we didn't know what Rivers would do taking over for Brees, what Brees would do in NOS, what Wilson would do in Seattle, etc. The one reason I would have to side on the things-won't-work-out-like-those-other-guys is they generally speaking took over really good teams and already had some decent weapons. Maybe teams lucked into good QB's, maybe it was the coaching or the system, maybe there were a lot of factors, who knows.

It's unlikely Stidham will become even a quarter of what Brady was. But I don't think he is going to completely fall on his face either.
So now list all of the times it didn't work out.

The Chiefs traded up to pick 9 to select Mahomes, and Rodgers and Young were highly rated prospects that were expected to become the heir apparents. Now, Brady I guess has some relevance being it's the same organization and amazingly the same head coach but he's considered an outlier for a reason. 

You act like it's laughable for someone to have predicted the Pats as the potential worst passing offense in 2020 when its not really that much of a stretch. Again outside of fluke injuries to starting QBs, let's list all of the potential candidates for that designation. The list would look something like Cinncy, San Diego, Miami, (and so as not to be a homer)  the New York Jets. New England has to be included in that list because right now we're looking at a fourth round second year QB and/or a bum journeyman QB leading the team. Notwithstanding some anecdotes from practices there's plenty of room for that being a total disaster.

I respect Belichick enough not to expect them to be anywhere close to a New England being a bad team next year, but it's not difficult to imagine them struggling through the air and relying on their defense and running game to win games.

 
So now list all of the times it didn't work out.

The Chiefs traded up to pick 9 to select Mahomes, and Rodgers and Young were highly rated prospects that were expected to become the heir apparents. Now, Brady I guess has some relevance being it's the same organization and amazingly the same head coach but he's considered an outlier for a reason. 

You act like it's laughable for someone to have predicted the Pats as the potential worst passing offense in 2020 when its not really that much of a stretch. Again outside of fluke injuries to starting QBs, let's list all of the potential candidates for that designation. The list would look something like Cinncy, San Diego, Miami, (and so as not to be a homer)  the New York Jets. New England has to be included in that list because right now we're looking at a fourth round second year QB and/or a bum journeyman QB leading the team. Notwithstanding some anecdotes from practices there's plenty of room for that being a total disaster.

I respect Belichick enough not to expect them to be anywhere close to a New England being a bad team next year, but it's not difficult to imagine them struggling through the air and relying on their defense and running game to win games.
I'm not sure what you think that I think the offense and team will be like this year. With or without Brady . . . with Stidham . . . or whomever they brought in, I have felt all along the upside for the NE offense is middle of the road. The strength of the team now is more based on defense, special teams, and running the football (if they can pull that off). Until they restock the offense and Stidham gets his feet wet, they will be scoring challenged. However, BB (at least with Brady) was able to win in the early going with a strategy of not turning the ball over, letting opponents make mistakes, coaching up players, and winning some close games. Who knows if that will work in today's NFL. IMO, they are an 8-8 team that could win 10 games with good health and good coaching. I certainly am not expecting Stidham to look anything like Mahomes. But that's why they (hopefully) play the games. As has been discussed in other threads, 2021 appears the year for NE get back to being more of a contender (at least one that might be able to go on a run in the playoffs). But that's a long way away.

 
I'm not sure what you think that I think the offense and team will be like this year. With or without Brady . . . with Stidham . . . or whomever they brought in, I have felt all along the upside for the NE offense is middle of the road. The strength of the team now is more based on defense, special teams, and running the football (if they can pull that off). Until they restock the offense and Stidham gets his feet wet, they will be scoring challenged. However, BB (at least with Brady) was able to win in the early going with a strategy of not turning the ball over, letting opponents make mistakes, coaching up players, and winning some close games. Who knows if that will work in today's NFL. IMO, they are an 8-8 team that could win 10 games with good health and good coaching. I certainly am not expecting Stidham to look anything like Mahomes. But that's why they (hopefully) play the games. As has been discussed in other threads, 2021 appears the year for NE get back to being more of a contender (at least one that might be able to go on a run in the playoffs). But that's a long way away.
This all started because with this quote from you:

 also found it interesting that in the NFL team talent evaluation chart currently circulating out there that NE is ranked 32nd in terms of their QB situation with a score of 0.1. (Sorry, can't find the chart at the moment.) IIRC, Tampa is now ranked 6th at QB with a score of 3.6. IMO, Tampa should be ranked higher than NE . . . but I would bet dollars to doughnuts that NE is not going to rank last in the league in QB production this year.
I responded that it is quiet possible that they could rank last in QB production - although I wouldn't bet on it.

You brought up Pat Mahomes as a retort.

But with your latest post you seem to have changed your stance to now agreeing that the New England passing offense may not be very good.  I guess I don't know quite where you stand but will let it go. I still would like to see your list of teams that you think are locks to finish behind New England in passing this season (injuries aside). My list would be very short. You original post indicated your list would be much longer.

 
This all started because with this quote from you:

I responded that it is quiet possible that they could rank last in QB production - although I wouldn't bet on it.

You brought up Pat Mahomes as a retort.

But with your latest post you seem to have changed your stance to now agreeing that the New England passing offense may not be very good.  I guess I don't know quite where you stand but will let it go. I still would like to see your list of teams that you think are locks to finish behind New England in passing this season (injuries aside). My list would be very short. You original post indicated your list would be much longer.
Not sure how I changed my stance . . . I never gave any indication of what I thought the NE passing offense would look like or what they would do in this thread.

I brought up Mahomes as an example of a team moving on from a QB and bringing in someone else with confidence. That was the part that I would say would be similar in terms of going with an in-house QB as a replacement. So in case I was unclear, the comparison was among the coaches decision-making NOT the actual players.

The NE offense is clearly a work in progress and we don't know who all the players will be on the roster, so it's hard to allocate production to players that aren't even there yet. I have said all along in other threads that the NE offense won't be great, but that I thought the offense might be better than people thought. I caught grief from some people in another thread when I said Stidham might be able to do slightly better with the same cast of mediocre weapons than Brady did last year. Stidham worked a lot with Meyers and would be willing to put in extra work with Harry (something which Brady wasn't all that interested in pursuing last year). 

I don't have time to give this a lot of thought, but I could see Stidham getting in the low 20's for TD's with 10-12 interceptions. Maybe 3,700 passing yards. So something similar to Kyler Murray's passing numbers from last year (without the rushing numbers). I am not sure where that would rank him or which teams would fall behind that range.

While those numbers may not be better in total than Brady's numbers last year, I would guess they won't have him throwing the football anywhere near as much as Brady did. So Stidham might be able to slightly improve over Brady's numbers in terms of QB rating and efficiency. Again, still hard to tell until we see who ends up on the actual roster.

 
Not sure how I changed my stance . . . I never gave any indication of what I thought the NE passing offense would look like or what they would do in this thread.

I brought up Mahomes as an example of a team moving on from a QB and bringing in someone else with confidence. That was the part that I would say would be similar in terms of going with an in-house QB as a replacement. So in case I was unclear, the comparison was among the coaches decision-making NOT the actual players.

The NE offense is clearly a work in progress and we don't know who all the players will be on the roster, so it's hard to allocate production to players that aren't even there yet. I have said all along in other threads that the NE offense won't be great, but that I thought the offense might be better than people thought. I caught grief from some people in another thread when I said Stidham might be able to do slightly better with the same cast of mediocre weapons than Brady did last year. Stidham worked a lot with Meyers and would be willing to put in extra work with Harry (something which Brady wasn't all that interested in pursuing last year). 

I don't have time to give this a lot of thought, but I could see Stidham getting in the low 20's for TD's with 10-12 interceptions. Maybe 3,700 passing yards. So something similar to Kyler Murray's passing numbers from last year (without the rushing numbers). I am not sure where that would rank him or which teams would fall behind that range.

While those numbers may not be better in total than Brady's numbers last year, I would guess they won't have him throwing the football anywhere near as much as Brady did. So Stidham might be able to slightly improve over Brady's numbers in terms of QB rating and efficiency. Again, still hard to tell until we see who ends up on the actual roster.
Your Mahomes/Smith analogy isn’t anything like the NE situation. Smith was a good game manager until he had mahomes breathing down his neck, then he had his best season. Mahomes was a 1st round pick that the team spent to move up for and had they had the option to keep smith; stidham is a 4th round guy who looks to be getting the starting gig because the former HOF starter moved on, allegedly because the coach/gm wanted to trade him and ownership vetoed it. If the team had any cap space* they’d be adding newton or Winston. The chiefs chose to move on to Mahomes (and made the right choice) while the Pats are forced to try stidham because of their cap situation and spurning their goat.That said, stidham is not worthless and there’s some upside to him, but let’s not expect that the pats have caught lightening in a bottle again.

 
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Your Mahomes/Smith analogy isn’t anything like the NE situation. Smith was a good game manager until he had mahomes breathing down his neck, then he had his best season. Mahomes was a 1st round pick that the team spent to move up for and had they had the option to keep smith; stidham is a 4th round guy who looks to be getting the starting gig because the former HOF starter moved on, allegedly because the coach/gm wanted to trade him and ownership vetoed it. If the team had any cap space they’d be adding newton or Winston. The chiefs chose to move on to Mahomes (and made the right choice) while the Pats are forced to try stidham because of their cap situation and spurning their goat.That said, stidham is not worthless and there’s some upside to him, but let’s not expect that the pats have caught lightening in a bottle again.
People are missing that NEW ENGLAND WAS NOT FORCED INTO ANYTHING. That's what I have been trying to say all throughout this thread. They had a 98% idea that Brady was gone after the 2018 season. They could have made a splash to draft a highly touted draft pick last year. They took Stidham. They could have worked out a trade for an established player. And they didn't. They could have signed an established free agent QB. And they haven't.

If BB wanted Newton or Winston, BB would have freed up the cap space to sign them. In fact, he did the exact OPPOSITE of that. The Patriots had the cap space and ability to sign a FA QB . . . instead they franchised G Joe Thuney, and resigned the McCourty brothers (as well as some other moves). Right before free agency, he dumped his $25+ million in cap space to re-sign players.

Stidham was a five star recruit and projected as a future first round draft pick. Things didn't work out his last year at Auburn. NE picked him up in the 4th round. If they view him as a first round pick at a 4th round price, why should we not believe them?

As I have said in a half dozen other threads, BB would know better than anyone what Brady had left to offer. He made no attempt to keep him. He CLEARLY did not feel that a 43 year old QB is worth $25-30 million a year (with $50 million guaranteed). BB is the greatest salary cap manager since they created a salary cap (that one is not even debatable). He ran the numbers and is (most likely) willing to take similar production from Stidham for $833,000 this year compared to what Brady could deliver for $25 million this year (while also being on the hook for another $25 million next year).

Time will likely show again that BB was right . . . but we won't know until down the river some.

 
People are missing that NEW ENGLAND WAS NOT FORCED INTO ANYTHING. That's what I have been trying to say all throughout this thread. They had a 98% idea that Brady was gone after the 2018 season. They could have made a splash to draft a highly touted draft pick last year. They took Stidham. They could have worked out a trade for an established player. And they didn't. They could have signed an established free agent QB. And they haven't.

If BB wanted Newton or Winston, BB would have freed up the cap space to sign them. In fact, he did the exact OPPOSITE of that. The Patriots had the cap space and ability to sign a FA QB . . . instead they franchised G Joe Thuney, and resigned the McCourty brothers (as well as some other moves). Right before free agency, he dumped his $25+ million in cap space to re-sign players.

Stidham was a five star recruit and projected as a future first round draft pick. Things didn't work out his last year at Auburn. NE picked him up in the 4th round. If they view him as a first round pick at a 4th round price, why should we not believe them?

As I have said in a half dozen other threads, BB would know better than anyone what Brady had left to offer. He made no attempt to keep him. He CLEARLY did not feel that a 43 year old QB is worth $25-30 million a year (with $50 million guaranteed). BB is the greatest salary cap manager since they created a salary cap (that one is not even debatable). He ran the numbers and is (most likely) willing to take similar production from Stidham for $833,000 this year compared to what Brady could deliver for $25 million this year (while also being on the hook for another $25 million next year).

Time will likely show again that BB was right . . . but we won't know until down the river some.
This is what people are missing.

To me, it seems like others feel that NE has been left at the alter by Brady, when in fact it was a mutual departure, or at the very least NE knew Brady was not coming back. 

They had every chance to draft a QB high last year, to trade for one, and sign one this offseason. Actions speak louder than words, and NE's actions couldnt be louder... unless you think their Plan A was to resign Brady and he walked away. Then I can understand giving Stidham "no respect"

 
People are missing that NEW ENGLAND WAS NOT FORCED INTO ANYTHING. That's what I have been trying to say all throughout this thread. They had a 98% idea that Brady was gone after the 2018 season. They could have made a splash to draft a highly touted draft pick last year. They took Stidham. They could have worked out a trade for an established player. And they didn't. They could have signed an established free agent QB. And they haven't.

If BB wanted Newton or Winston, BB would have freed up the cap space to sign them. In fact, he did the exact OPPOSITE of that. The Patriots had the cap space and ability to sign a FA QB . . . instead they franchised G Joe Thuney, and resigned the McCourty brothers (as well as some other moves). Right before free agency, he dumped his $25+ million in cap space to re-sign players.

Stidham was a five star recruit and projected as a future first round draft pick. Things didn't work out his last year at Auburn. NE picked him up in the 4th round. If they view him as a first round pick at a 4th round price, why should we not believe them?

As I have said in a half dozen other threads, BB would know better than anyone what Brady had left to offer. He made no attempt to keep him. He CLEARLY did not feel that a 43 year old QB is worth $25-30 million a year (with $50 million guaranteed). BB is the greatest salary cap manager since they created a salary cap (that one is not even debatable). He ran the numbers and is (most likely) willing to take similar production from Stidham for $833,000 this year compared to what Brady could deliver for $25 million this year (while also being on the hook for another $25 million next year).

Time will likely show again that BB was right . . . but we won't know until down the river some.
Time will tell, and you make some good points. But take a look at where the qbs were drafted:
from NFL.com

SEL #PLAYERPOSITIONSCHOOLTEAM

1Kyler MurrayQBOklahomaArizona Cardinals

6Daniel JonesQBDukeNew York Giants

15Dwayne HaskinsQBOhio StateWashington Redskins

42Drew LockQBMissouriDenver Broncos

100Will GrierQBWest VirginiaCarolina Panthers

104Ryan FinleyQBNorth Carolina StateCincinnati Bengals

133Jarrett StidhamQBAuburn
 

They could have reached for Lock at 32, or taken Grier or Finley (or stidham) in the 3rd, or moved up from a comp pick to get him. 

NE was also up against the cap last year. They had about 195 million in salary and the cap was 188 million, so easily signing a decent bet to sit behind Brady until he decides he’s done (or what, tell Brady that guy is for next year when we move on?) isn’t really easy. They could have done that stuff, but they didn’t, and now they are “stuck” with stidham, who they perhaps like a lot, but to say that this was their plan the whole time is simply an opinion of yours. 

 
This is what people are missing.

To me, it seems like others feel that NE has been left at the alter by Brady, when in fact it was a mutual departure, or at the very least NE knew Brady was not coming back. 

They had every chance to draft a QB high last year, to trade for one, and sign one this offseason. Actions speak louder than words, and NE's actions couldnt be louder... unless you think their Plan A was to resign Brady and he walked away. Then I can understand giving Stidham "no respect"
Where could they have drafted a qb early other than at 32?

 
Fans should be encouraged by these scouts' takes on Stidham

"He's a lot closer to playoff quarterback than another guy who falls on his face replacing a legend," one NFL scout tells B/R."

"One scout told Hayes he "begged" his team to draft Stidham."

"Knowing Bill, he's excited about taking this big ball of clay and molding it into his image," another scout says. "I've always thought Stidham was way undervalued as a fourth-round pick. I begged our guys to take him. He has so much more ability than he was able to show in college"
 
Yeah, I guess who cares what NFL scouts think. Let's get back to talking about how much armchair GMs think he sucks
I’m sorry, I shouldn’t simply disregard the info. Stidham could win games or even be really good, I’m just looking at it as this is the hand they’re dealt so they go with it. Why tell Hoyer he has a chance to start? Did he make it up? Lip service? They can’t trade for someone any more than they can sign someone, this year or last year. BB has looked genius before, so i can see the potential, but I just don’t buy the idea that this was the master plan all along. They didn’t have the picks to take a qb anywhere else of consequence (stidham, Grier, what’s the difference) unless they took one at 32 (or trade back.) Their hands are tied.

 
I’m sorry, I shouldn’t simply disregard the info. Stidham could win games or even be really good, I’m just looking at it as this is the hand they’re dealt so they go with it. Why tell Hoyer he has a chance to start? Did he make it up? Lip service? They can’t trade for someone any more than they can sign someone, this year or last year. BB has looked genius before, so i can see the potential, but I just don’t buy the idea that this was the master plan all along. They didn’t have the picks to take a qb anywhere else of consequence (stidham, Grier, what’s the difference) unless they took one at 32 (or trade back.) Their hands are tied.
I think the masterplan (after they were comfortable with what they had) was Jimmy G but the timing did not work as Brady kept chugging along.

 
I’m sorry, I shouldn’t simply disregard the info. Stidham could win games or even be really good, I’m just looking at it as this is the hand they’re dealt so they go with it. Why tell Hoyer he has a chance to start? Did he make it up? Lip service? They can’t trade for someone any more than they can sign someone, this year or last year. BB has looked genius before, so i can see the potential, but I just don’t buy the idea that this was the master plan all along. They didn’t have the picks to take a qb anywhere else of consequence (stidham, Grier, what’s the difference) unless they took one at 32 (or trade back.) Their hands are tied.
I think it's a good point that they dodnt have a great chance at a qb last year, especially when they draft was thought to be weak at qb... which I think history will eventually prove incorrect. 

However, nothing was stopping them from going for Bridgewater last year. Or Rosen- I recall he was rumored to NE as a possible trade destination. 

Also, they could have cleared cap for a QB if it was such a big position of need. They could have went after Mariota, as many here said BB liked before that draft. Actions are speaking pretty loudly IMO.

I can admit I have bias here. Mostly because I saw a 2018 top 10 predicted draft choice fall to round 4. I saw an opportunity for a steal. I want him to pan out since I'm invested across the board. 

 
This is what people are missing.

To me, it seems like others feel that NE has been left at the alter by Brady, when in fact it was a mutual departure, or at the very least NE knew Brady was not coming back. 

They had every chance to draft a QB high last year, to trade for one, and sign one this offseason. Actions speak louder than words, and NE's actions couldnt be louder... unless you think their Plan A was to resign Brady and he walked away. Then I can understand giving Stidham "no respect"
They only drafted Stidham last year and Brady was still on the roster. When did they have every chance to draft a QB high?

 
They only drafted Stidham last year and Brady was still on the roster. When did they have every chance to draft a QB high?
In any draft from the time turned 38. They had plenty of ability to draft a high profile rookie as a successor to Brady. It’s not like Brady aging snuck up on them. 

 
In any draft from the time turned 38. They had plenty of ability to draft a high profile rookie as a successor to Brady. It’s not like Brady aging snuck up on them. 
So the plan two years ago was to wait until Stidham came out and grab him in Round 4?

You’re ignoring context. I was responding to a post that said they had every chance to draft a QB high last year.

 
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So the plan two years ago was to wait until Stidham came out and grab him in Round 4?

You’re ignoring context.
I am not saying the master plan was Stidham was going to be the new messiah. Jimmy G was the first guy. They ended up with Stidham and now they probably feel Stidham is the new Jimmy G. 

While none of us know how Stidham will do, one would guess a guy that has coached football for 45 years would have a decent idea of how he will do. Certainly there is a chance Stidham bombs, but there is also a decent chance Stidham is a fit and can do what Bill wants. 

 
In any draft from the time turned 38. They had plenty of ability to draft a high profile rookie as a successor to Brady. It’s not like Brady aging snuck up on them. 
They did, and then when he looked the part (Jimmy g) BB wanted to trade Tom Brady. Ownership vetoed that idea, they traded jimmy, and the relationship between Brady/BB was never the same. Brady moves on, they have no cap space and no backup plan, no vet to sign a team friendly deal. I just think they will take a year with stidham while they get their cap in order and add a bunch of young players through the draft. They can still compete in that division with a ham sandwich at qb historically, and BB has had success with pretty much every backup that’s played, so we will see. They’ll see what they have, and make a decision next year. 

 

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