JARRETT STIDHAM: Unwise to dismiss Patriots' apparent QB1
It's hard to question a head coach with an NFL-record six Super Bowl rings and 300-plus victories (including the postseason), but that hasn't stopped folks around the league from raising an eyebrow at Bill Belichick's moves (and primarily, inaction) at the quarterback position since Tom Brady moved on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in March.
At a time when most teams are building around QB1s with first-round pedigrees, Belichick seems to be at least strongly considering rolling with Jarrett Stidham, a former fourth-round pick, as his starter, with veteran Brian Hoyer returning for his third stint with the team as a backup. The only other quarterbacks on the roster are undrafted rookies Brian Lewerke and J'Mar Smith.
Going with an unproven former Day 3 pick to replace the G.O.A.T. for a franchise that's synonymous with winning seems like an awfully big roll of the dice. What is it about Stidham that has led Belichick to bypass proven veterans this offseason and QB prospects in this year's draft?
We might not get a clear answer to that million-dollar question for a while, but I thought that I would take a long, hard look at Stidham's film from his rookie year and revisit my scouting report on him from a year ago to gain a better perspective on the Patriots signal-caller.
Reviewing my pre-draft notes on Stidham, I thought that he was a hard evaluation due to the up-and-down performances that littered his collegiate career. As a freshman at Baylor, the former four-star recruit looked poised for stardom in 10 appearances (three starts) that resulted in 1,200-plus passing yards, a 12:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, a 68.8 percent completion rate and a ridiculous 11.6 yards per attempt.
After sitting out the following season, per transfer rules, Stidham hit the ground running at Auburn with a strong sophomore campaign that included 3,158 yards passing, an 18:6 TD-to-INT ratio and a win over rival Alabama. He not only exhibited A-plus arm talent while showcasing a mix of drive throws and touch tosses on the perimeter, but he flashed anticipation squeezing the ball into tight windows. Stidham's performance dipped in 2018, partially due to subpar help from his receivers, offensive line and coaching staff. However, he still possessed enough tools to be considered an intriguing developmental prospect heading into last year's draft.
Fast-forward to his rookie year with the Patriots, when Stidham was fairly impressive directing the offense during the preseason. He connected on 67.8 percent of his passes (61 of 90) with a 4:1 TD-INT ratio while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. Those numbers lined up with an impressive film resume that showed Stidham making an assortment of throws to every area of the field. The rookie tossed darts to receivers on quick-rhythm throws at short and intermediate range while also displaying efficient footwork and deft ball handling on play-action passes.
With Stidham showing the capacity to work the middle of the field while also throwing pinpoint passes to receivers along the boundary on deep-outs and comebacks, the Patriots should be able to continue attacking opponents with many of the same plays that have been staples in the game plan for years with TB12 at the controls.
Now, I'm not ready to proclaim Stidham a worthy successor to the throne in New England, but he certainly has enough talent to function as a capable starter for the team. Sure, he faltered in his first regular-season action with a pick-six in Week 3 against the New York Jets, which prompted Belichick to bench him and re-insert Brady into a lopsided game. The visual of that benching has created a narrative that suggests the second-year pro isn't ready to handle the starting job.
Here's the thing: The backup quarterback doesn't get many reps during practice during the average game week, and it's hard for young quarterbacks to find their rhythm without a lot of preparation. As a starter, however, Stidham would get the bulk of the work during the week, and those practice reps would put him in a better position to succeed. Additionally, the Patriots coaching staff would be able to build a game plan around his talents, which should only help him. Considering how many young players make their biggest developmental improvements from their rookie season to their second year, the NFL could see a new-and-improved Stidham when he takes the field this fall.
"Stid worked really hard last year," Belichick told NFL Network during Thursday night's Schedule Release '20 LIVE show. "He was our backup quarterback the entire season, and I know he's working hard in the offseason. I know he's made a lot of progress in terms of understanding our offense and understanding opponent defenses like all players do from Year 1 to Year 2. I'm sure he will get out there and be ready to go, be prepared, compete hard, and we'll see where it takes us."
If Belichick's confidence in his young passer sounds surprising, it's important to remember his success with unheralded quarterbacks during the Brady era, something he mentioned later in the interview when asked about preparing for life without the legend under center.
"Well, we've played at other times without Tom," the Patriots head coach said. "Whether it was the (2008) season after he was injured -- we played 15 games with (Matt) Cassel and went 11-5 -- or heading into the '16 season with Jimmy (Garoppolo) and then Jacoby (Brissett) and Tom coming back after the four-game suspension. ... We'll do what we always do. Try to prepare the team the best that we can, utilize our players, the skills that they have, put ourselves in the best position we can to be competitive and win."
Given Belichick's reputation and Stidham's natural talents, it would be foolish to dismiss the Patriots' chances of succeeding with an inexperienced young quarterback who wasn't hailed as the next big thing when he entered the league. After all, they started their dominance of the league with a second-year sixth-round pick at the controls in 2001, and they could extend their run into the 2020s with an unheralded passer who might come into his own in Year 2.
