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It seems that the coaching staff feel that Lynch is a bust. He doesnt seem to have improved at all since coming into the league (and he was raw then). He has been hurt all year... There doesnt seem to be any belief that he will ever be what he was drafted for...
I disagree that the Pats season is done if Brady goes down, but if that's really so certain then the 49ers are absolute fools for making this trade.
I don't know why they'd be absolute fools for making the trade? I'm saying Jimmy is likely good but unlikely to be an instant super bowl champion qb. Again though, risk is minimal. I know we can all bring up examples like Rodgers, etc... but what are the odds that Tom goes down long term? You usually get maybe 1-2 of 32 starting QB's injured long term in a season? THat puts the odds of Brady going down in the 2nd half of a season to about 2.5%. Yes its a lot to risk but from a straight betting standpoint those odds are EXTREMELY low and getting that pick is nice.
If JG doesn't keep the Pats as contenders after however many years in the system, then he is not a QB the 49ers should be trading a valuable pick for.
The Pats are barely contenders to win the whole thing right now. So just cause Jimmy isn't as good as Tom Brady then they shouldn't trade a pick? Jimmy jumping in halfway through the season would not win them a super bowl imo. Almost every Pats fan will agree with that.
Denver makes the most sense. They suck at drafting and developing QBs, which seems odd but maybe it's hard to assess QB if you're one of the best in recent memory.
Denver makes the most sense. They have an elite defense and with a decent qb could be a playoff contender.
They have other needs for sure but if they're not careful they might find themselves drafting around #10 instead of top 3. Wouldn't be shocked to see them win 2 more games this year.
Here you go again- there are more than just 2 possible outcomes for these situations. It isn't just that Brady might stay completely healthy all year or he's going to be knocked out for the season- what if he misses a couple of games, or has to leave during the middle of a close game once or twice? Where are those in your "calculations"? Again, that doesn't mean it's a bad trade for NE (I don't think it is), but not sure why you keep thinking everything is binary when it's not.
This.
This is a great point that I was surprised I had to wait until the 4th page to find. People are acting like they get 8 games to try him out, but would you judge a QB harshly in his first few games if he had signed with a new team in the offseason but then missed all of OTAs, all of traning camp, and all of preseason? Even in that situation, at least the guy got to learn the playbook and sit in on the meetings. This will possibly be the most meaningless trial period ever. He's being thrown into the fire behind a questionable OL on an 0-8 team. Yet another reason why this was a stupid trade.
Yes he won't play for the franchise tag in new england. There is NO CHANCE that the pats invest 40+ mill a year in the qb position next year. Yes of course there are a lot of options and thins that can happen.... but to just say "lots can happen let's discount everything that isn't 100% sure to happen" is simply lazy. All signs POINT towards them being in a better spot to resign him over other teams if they did this now, and a trade back for picks happening. Could they not happen? Sure... but the likely scenario is that they do. To just sweep that under the rug and say "I will not evaluate this trade because something different could happen" is again, lazy.humpback said:
The advantage of him being there early in terms of re-signing him is MASSIVE. THere are a lot of qb needy teams. NYG, JAX, DEN, CLEVE, SF and he would be the 2nd hottest name on the market. Of course it's no guarantee he stays in SF but they're going to have a much better chance to sign him by doing it this way.FF Ninja said:
Um, what? I fail to see how it is MASSIVE. If they don't re-sign him during this season, when they'll know very little about him due to very little time to learn the system, then I'd say they have a very SMALL advantage, IF ANY, in signing him due to... familiarity? They'll basically have 2 extra months to woo him, but if he gets beaten up behind that OL and decides he doesn't like losing, he may actually have a bad taste in his mouth and would prefer to sign elsewhere as an unrestricted FA. They will either have to compete with all the other QB needy teams or they'll have to way overpay for an unknown by using the franchise tag... and then do it all over again next year. Overall, I'd say this advantage is borderline negligible and could easily turn into a negative.
Again, this is based on them having some sort of re-signing advantage which only exists in your head. There are some good QB candidates in this draft. Do you really give up on them to trade back and sign JG long term based on 6-7 games where he probably only learned half the playbook and had zero chemistry with his receivers? He could easily look decent in these games, due to defenses not really game planning against him, and then take a step backwards next year while some other team drafts a franchise QB with that early 1st. Or he could look bad this year and then take a step forward next year when he gets to properly prepare for the season. This trade is such a waste of time and draft capital it seems like a bad joke.
They're in a dead heat for 1.01... they could screw that up if Jimmy is an average QB. So they'll have paid an early 2nd to lose the 1.01. There are so many bad scenarios here that it is hard to pick the worst one. And again, I don't really see any awesome best case scenario - if he looks really good SF just drove up the price for him. If he looks really bad, which could be for any number of reasons, they have a tough choice to make and just cost themselves the 2.01. Lose-lose.
Hahahaha. What? NFL GMs had half a season of watching Brock, a full season of watching Matt Cassell, half a season or more of Glennon... those were all poor signings with more tape than SF will get in these 6-7 games. Sure, they'll get hands on experience with him, but they get hands on experience with free agents, too. This is an inexact science and throwing him into the fire late in the season isn't going to lead to a fool-proof evaluation. I mean, Adam Gase had a full freaking season with Jay Cutler in Chicago, paid him $10M to come to Miami, and that was a disaster. Evaluating JG for a few games without an offseason to learn the offense is not going to be as useful as you seem to think.
To the first point, it’s not much easier to re-sign him. If they were willing to pay franchise tender $ to him, there’s a good chance they could have got him in FA anyway. I’m not sure how many teams were lining up to pay him $25m a year
Well we can disagree on familiarity. I think the extra time to woo him is huge. He's been waiting for this moment for a long time. He's going to a coach that loves him, an offense that seemingly fits him, and is going to be handed the keys to the city. Yes he could still play the FA card, but I'm willing to bet that he stays a Niner next season.... are you willing to bet the opposite? I guess we'll see next year if he's still their QB or not to find that out but I'm going to say the chances are over 50% that he is. There's a very good chance he could have just gotten woo'd by Jax or someone next offseason and this avoids all that stress and hoopla. They got their guy in their doors already.... a 2nd round pick isn't a king's ransom by any stretch.
If they were willing to trade a high 2nd round pick for him in-season then they're probably also the most likely to pay the most money for him in the offseason, so yeah, I'd agree his most likely landing spot is SF next year. I think this trade increases those odds a negligible amount, though. But if another team likes him and can pay him more money, then what's stopping him? There are some decent landing spots out there. If he gets beaten up and goes 0-7 with the 49ers, he just might PREFER to sign elsewhere after this experience. So I really don't see the advantage here other than the option to franchise him - which would be an extreme overpay for a guy with as little experience as he'll have.
Has it? I'd love to hear someone give me a rational explanation about how this gives them such an advantage. I have yet to hear one.
So he'll have 0.2 more years of experience in their system than anybody else they'd sign... big whoop. It's not like he's been through offseason training in 2017. We're only talking about 2 months. He will not be entering 2018 with some massive amount of system experience due to this trade. Sure, 7 games will be close to half a season, but the actual season is just a fraction of the preparation. As I've already mentioned, OTA's, training camp, and preseason are valuable tools for learning the offense and developing chemistry.
Kind of a strange assertion. Not to be pompous, but I've got a high IQ so it is statistically likely that I am smarter than most, but do we actually have a tally of people who like this trade for the 49ers vs. those that don't? Maybe I'll start a poll.
Another piece to add here is that JG has been developed and invested in for the past few years by playing with/watching/learning from the best, most cerebral QB to play the position and by arguably the best coach to coach in recent time. His development really couldn't get much better at this point. Shanahan and staff will be able to listen to as well as watch him play (practice as well as games) and will hopefully be smart enough to figure out if the kid is the real deal in the next 8 weeks whether he wins a game or looks good on the field at all. Honestly, I hope to see him show flashes but still lose to keep that pick in the #1-#2 range in order to trade or pick up a STUD to protect him.thecatch said:
I think you're underestimating the market for QB's next year. It is so easy to naively say "oh they could just sign him later" but so many factors come up. Maybe Elway Woo's him... maybe he wants to settle in a new city and start a family. Maybe he'll love the town of San Fran and never want to leave. Or he's bad at learning playbooks and only wants to do it once. These are obviously hyperbole, but no one knows really any of these things. The point is, it's undeniable that there is at least SOME incentive for him to stay there next year over finding a new place. The level of that advantage can be debated all day, and has been. In today's NFL if you get an advantage to sign your guy before Elway is even allowed to sit down and have a meeting with him, or before he gets on a jet to Jacksonville, then you take that opportunity. He might not even have made a visit to SF next year if Denver brought him in first and he never left.
at your IQ comment. You did all the work on that one yourself.
As a 49er fan, I am not sold on the deal yet, but this point you made is being underestimated IMO. Even if he didn't see the field this year (he will), having this time to learn the system is invaluable vs coming on board after the draft.
Teams can cut a player whenever they want. Hoyer was free to sign with 30 other teams other than New England but didn't. How is this different than when a team makes an attempt to trade a player and all the other teams pass because they know the player will be cut and available on the open market?
