I never downgraded Andrews, just pointed out that he also cost them the game. Not only are the #1 and #2 wrs below average, so are the #3 and #4. I'm not saying Lamar is a great passer, but most people who use analytics agree that the receiving core for the Ravens is way below average.
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QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
I'd be interested to see the analytics if you have a link. I did a quick google search and didn't come up with anything.
I can't see how they are way below average. Average for sure...just not way below nor an excuse for Lamar to be as poor as he is.
The pff ranking of all 32 teams receiving core, with Bateman, had them at 23 for a prediction. In that link I posted earlier and below, it says they were the 4th worst in 2020. They lost Hurst, a good receiving TE, and gained Watkins, who cames off a 64.5 pff rating.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-all-nfl-receiving-corps-ahead-of-the-2021-season
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
I have Lamar and think he will put up big points. What worries me is that eventually an injury is going to happen. The NFL is tough on running QBs.
I'm interested more in the analytics. Read about the teams that are above the ravens and i suspect that they are all bunched very close together on the analytics side.
Watkins has a 2021 PFF grade of 75 so...
Opportunity and targets goes a long way to PFF grades. Watkins was a highly regarded wr so there is talent in there
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Being down his top 3 RBs certainly doesn't help anything.
There is a disconnect between Lamar's analytic rating and people's perception of his passing ability. Last night showed that Lamar has good touch on the deep passes. One deep completion to Brown and one to Watkins. Like any QB, he needs pass protection, although on the TD pass to Brown he succeeded with poor protection. My main concern is his injury risk. If Andrews hangs onto that pass in overtime, we might be talking differently about Lamar today.
https://twitter.com/QBDataMine/status/1367253941440958465?s=19
https://twitter.com/QBDataMine/status/1367253941440958465?s=19
My concern is his injury risk and what a major injury is going to do to him.
He does well when he extends plays.
That being said the other issue, and you saw it last night, is that every 5th pass is just awful. Like high school awful. I can think of a couple last night where he just missed an open wr by 5 yards. As an owner, and therefore a watcher of his games, it seems like that every game.
The Frankman
Footballguy
he still is not a very good passer....you have to make him throw....you just have to....he is a video game running the ball....but he is eventually going to take a nasty hit or get twisted the wrong way, rolled up on....bell rung into the turf....something....I guess enjoy it while you can but I agree the hit is coming at some point....
BearDown54
Footballguy
Gotta ride this train as long as you can, and yes obviously have a solid backup when that big hit happens
Same, I just needed 15 points to win the week and I was already counting the L. Me of little faith...
CalBear
Footballguy
Guess what: Pocket passers get hit too. Four quarterbacks went down this weekend alone. Two others got hurt but came back in the game (Carr, Mayfield). Other than Tyrod Taylor, who wasn't hit, they weren't running QBs.
It's a silly complaint.
And I believe there is something to be said for him initiating contact to mitigate any "surprise" injuries.
The bolded isn’t true, but I can understand how you’d feel that way if you don’t see every game of his and he was certainly taking way more hits than usual last given the nature of the game. But generally he absolutely will give himself up by going down or getting out of bounds several times a game.killface said:
Sure. But that’s not what you said where I quoted. He does avoid a good deal of them.
I guess your definition and my definition is different for 'avoid a good deal of them'. Guys like Rodgers (in his prime), Allen, even Murray really work to avoid hits.
I see a difference with him than most qbs
while obviously its not really possible to predict an injury....it's also obvious that he and his team put him in situations that seem to increase the chances....they are designing runs for him....about 12-15 a game or so in addition to other times where he may just tuck it and go when it originally was going to be a pass....just cause that is instinctive for him....it does feel like you can only poke the bear so often...and if they are relying on him to convert big plays at big times (which they do) that in itself leads to more contact instead of just going down or running out of bounds as he will feel the need to get as much as he can on a play....which many times involves sacrificing your body for the extra yardage...
CalBear
Footballguy
Look, I guarantee that Lamar Jackson will at some point take a hit that knocks him out of a game or a season. So did Tom Brady. So did Peyton Manning. So did Ben Roethlisberger. So did Aaron Rodgers. So did Dak Prescott.
There's only one top QB in the league who's 30+ years old and who's never missed at least half a season to injury, and that's Russell Wilson and his 800+ rushing attempts and 4500+ rushing yards (both tops in the league for a QB over that time).
It's probably safer to be out in space getting tackled by a safety than getting landed on by a stack of 300-pound linemen in the pocket. Certainly there's no reason to downgrade Jackson based on the possibility that he might get hurt in the future.
Weird examples since Rodgers missed a year or 2 in his prime with injuries. Murray was banged up last year and from what I’ve seen of Allen he’s a far more physical runner and takes some serious shots himself whereas Lamar is more elusive.
But we’re getting away from the point here which was me disputing you saying he never goes out of bounds and never slides. I’ve watched every snap of his career. He avoids a lot of contact. And of course as the top running Qb still takes more hits than anyone else. But people acting like he takes 15-20 hits a game like a Rb and saying he never avoids them just haven’t seen him enough.
bolded...I think this actually does happen more than you think....it just hasn't really come to fruition or had a reason yet for people to come out and say it.....although I believe many have on these boards....I think some have said they just don't think his style of play is sustainable so they pass or move him down their rankings...maybe don't want to pay the price you had to pay to get him because of it ....especially after his MVP year....but I think in some ways it is always at least a small consideration for most when he is being drafted in FF....as much as I give Jackson more credit in 4 PPPTD leagues because of his rushing stats....I do also factor in that he puts himself at risk more than others....you really can't argue that his chances of getting hurt are a little higher than the other top QB's that put up his type numbers....how much he gets "downgraded" probably varies from person to person...
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Great points. Add running forward vs standing like a statue with your arm extended in a throwing motion.
ignoring mitigated risk has sunk a lot of ships....we get hung up on football is a physical sport and any player can get hurt on any play....there is a reason many of the most electric WR's/etc no longer return punts and kickoffs.....
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I disagree. Even if his career isn't as long because of his style, you maximize your chances of winning with him now. He will never be a great passer, but he is as good a playmaker as there is in the league right now. He is not a conventional QB, but he makes plays and wins A LOT. The Ravens would be wise to pay him.killface said:
I would just franchise him every year. He gets rich and you don't have a long term commitment
my point was really just keeping him out of harms way by limiting his chances at getting hurt.....they don't really do that....but then I started thinking, if he doesn't play this way....what good is he really....because he would then just probably be a middle of the road guy cause his passing game is nothing special....some might even say below average compared to 31 other starters...
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
He’s the best ball carrier in the league. I don’t think very highly of his passing.
There are rules in place to prevent this type of thing, or at least make it financially non-viable.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-franchise-tag-meaning-deadlines-values-rules/1o185fk9ywga31hax6m1ahgn3q#:~:text=Players can be tagged in,of the player's previous salary.
Players can be tagged in consecutive years, but the team must pay the player more each year he is tagged. (Kirk Cousins can tell you all about it.) For a player to be franchise tagged two straight years, the team must pay 120 percent of the player's previous salary. If it's three straight years, the team would need to pay the player 144 percent of his previous salary.
From the CBA: Any club that designates a player as a franchise player for the third time shall, on the date the third such designation is made, be deemed to have tendered the player a one-year NFL player contract for the greater of ...
— (A) the average of the five largest prior year salaries for players at the position with the highest such average
— (B) 120 percent of the average of the five largest prior year salaries for players at the position at which the player participated in the most plays during the prior league year
— or (C) 144 percent of his prior year salary.
If the club designates the player as a franchise player for the third time, the designating club shall be the only club with which the player may negotiate or sign a player contract.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
The problem there is he could easily hold out if you franchise him too many times. We are seeing that more, where players get ticked off when franchised too many times.
On the flip side, it looks like he hurt himself a little on that stupid flip on the winning TD. Sounds like he is just sore and will be fine to play, but a QB needs to have better sense than to hurl himself like that and risk getting injured just for the sake of showing off. That kind of judgment makes me pause a bit with him.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The Lions defense really stinks. Lamar might be running on one hip and half a stomach and he should still put up good numbers.
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