Lamar Jackson's struggles this season could be a sign of history repeating itself. Let me refresh your memory as I make this comparison ...
Almost a decade before taking over the Baltimore Ravens' offense in 2019, Greg Roman was developing Colin Kaepernick -- then a raw but extremely athletic passer -- with the San Francisco 49ers in his first stint as an NFL offensive coordinator. Halfway through his second season, Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith as the team's QB1 and dazzled with his extraordinary dual-threat ability, shredding defenses in a system that featured run-pass options and designed runs.
Sound familiar?
Roman has done similar work with Jackson in Baltimore over the last couple years by utilizing the QB's video-game-like rushing ability to make him one of the most dangerous weapons in the game despite his limitations as a passer. Both Kaepernick and Jackson took the league by storm under Roman, with Kaepernick helping lead the 49ers to an NFC title in his second season and Jackson winning the MVP award in Year 2.
However, after nearly winning a championship, the 49ers started to alter their offense and turned Kaepernick into more of a dropback passer as a means of protecting him from big hits. With a guy as dynamic as Kap, I understand why a franchise would want to shield him from wear and tear, but by limiting him from fully utilizing his greatest asset, a decline in production seemed likely to follow. Sure enough, Kaepernick's passer rating and average yards per pass attempt decreased in each of the two seasons that followed his peak 2012 campaign. Roman left San Francisco after the 2014 season and Kaepernick lost the starting job a couple years later.
A look at Jackson's production in 2020 has me wondering if the Ravens are falling into the same trap. It sure feels that way. In the Ravens' Divisional Round loss last season, Tennessee built a lead and took Baltimore out of its game, forcing Jackson to throw a career-high 59 times. This season, with the Ravens focused on trying to avoid a repeat of the same fate, Jackson's completion percentage is down nearly three points from where it was at this time last year and he's not being utilized as a runner at the same rate:
Through seven games in 2019: 83 att., 576 yds, 3 TDs, 6.9 rush ypc, 82.3 rush ypg
Through seven games in 2020: 66 att., 411 yds, 2 TDs, 6.2 rush ypc, 58.7 rush ypg
Now, Baltimore's offensive line has taken its lumps, losing eight-time Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda to retirement in the offseason and All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley to a season-ending ankle injury on Sunday. But Roman must dial up creative play-calling to help Jackson be more effective as a runner. The reigning MVP strikes fear into defenders as a ball-carrier in space but we haven't seen the wide array of explosive plays we did a season ago. Jackson has averaged fewer than 5.0 yards per carry in three of the Ravens' seven games this season after having three such games in all of 2019.
In addition, Jackson's turnovers have hampered the Ravens this season, especially against the Steelers on Sunday. After turning the ball over just eight times in his MVP season, Jackson already has seven giveaways in 2020. He looked far from his usual form on Sunday, throwing a pair of picks and fumbling the ball three times (losing two). His most glaring error was the throw directly to Pittsburgh linebacker Robert Spillane that turned into a Steelers' pick-six on the Ravens' opening drive. With the Steelers in a base defense, Jackson went through his progressions before coming back to his first option and threw the ball late. That kind of poor decision-making in the pocket can't happen.
I certainly understand why Roman would be making a greater effort to protect Jackson from hits and help him improve as a passer, but I believe the way to do the latter is to keep Jackson comfortable with designed runs, RPOs, screens, bootlegs, etc. The Ravens need their QB1 to get back to his MVP form if they want to hang with the top dogs in the AFC. It's a fine line Roman walks as the offensive coordinator, but right now, he's falling on the wrong side of it.