QB Russell Wilson, NYG (3 Viewers)

[Tau837]

He is scheduled for a $22M option bonus in 2024. It is guaranteed, but it seems that (amount and guarantee) could be renegotiable.

I see little chance he'd give up any guaranteed money. As you stated, this could be (likely is) his last big payday. Non-guaranteed salary amounts, sure; guaranteed portions of the existing contract, no way IMO.

As it stands, if he played out his current contract, he would be paid another $211M over the next 5 seasons (2024-2028).

As it stands, if he gets released this offseason, he will get paid $22M (guaranteed 2024 option bonus) + $17M (guaranteed 2024 salary) = $39M. If he gets released, maybe he signs to play somewhere for $10M/year for 3 years? And if he sees all of that, this path nets him $69M over the next 3 seasons, after which he is presumably a backup or out of the league.

All I'm saying is, there is a big gulf between his current contract and what he will likely make going forward if he is released. Which suggests it could be possible there is room for renegotiation to find a middle ground.

Daniel Jones just got $40M, there's no way he's playing for $10M /year. Doesn't appear to be working out in Denver but could be the right fit for a team with all the other pieces in place. Hell, if Denver just had their defense from last year they'd be like 4-2 this year.

OK, I'll bite. Suppose he is released.

2022 was the worst season of his career. 2023 is not going well; impossible to predict the rest of the season, but it seems likely he will get benched at some point to avoid injury guarantee risk. Let's assume no magic turnaround the rest of this season.

Knowing the other QB situations in the league and that there is a strong incoming QB class, how much do you think he'll get at age 36 coming off the only 3 losing seasons of his career?

EDIT: BTW, that Jones contract was an obvious mistake. No one should be using that as any benchmark at this point.

i'd say in neighborhood of 40 M, stand by the statement he's not playing bad this year, people have some recency bias because of last game or two. if he went to a team like the Jets (he won't bc of Rodgers, but hypothetically if Rodgers wasn't there), they would be super bowl contenders

$40M per year?

laugh all you want that's a middle of the road contract these days, Daniel Jones and David Carr range

It is actually a top 10 contract average. I will take the under right now, by a good measure. I'll be happy to come back and eat crow if I'm wrong, because I am a Wilson fan. But I think you are way off here.

 

[Mitchie]

He is scheduled for a $22M option bonus in 2024. It is guaranteed, but it seems that (amount and guarantee) could be renegotiable.

I see little chance he'd give up any guaranteed money. As you stated, this could be (likely is) his last big payday. Non-guaranteed salary amounts, sure; guaranteed portions of the existing contract, no way IMO.

As it stands, if he played out his current contract, he would be paid another $211M over the next 5 seasons (2024-2028).

As it stands, if he gets released this offseason, he will get paid $22M (guaranteed 2024 option bonus) + $17M (guaranteed 2024 salary) = $39M. If he gets released, maybe he signs to play somewhere for $10M/year for 3 years? And if he sees all of that, this path nets him $69M over the next 3 seasons, after which he is presumably a backup or out of the league.

All I'm saying is, there is a big gulf between his current contract and what he will likely make going forward if he is released. Which suggests it could be possible there is room for renegotiation to find a middle ground.

Daniel Jones just got $40M, there's no way he's playing for $10M /year. Doesn't appear to be working out in Denver but could be the right fit for a team with all the other pieces in place. Hell, if Denver just had their defense from last year they'd be like 4-2 this year.

OK, I'll bite. Suppose he is released.

2022 was the worst season of his career. 2023 is not going well; impossible to predict the rest of the season, but it seems likely he will get benched at some point to avoid injury guarantee risk. Let's assume no magic turnaround the rest of this season.

Knowing the other QB situations in the league and that there is a strong incoming QB class, how much do you think he'll get at age 36 coming off the only 3 losing seasons of his career?

EDIT: BTW, that Jones contract was an obvious mistake. No one should be using that as any benchmark at this point.

i'd say in neighborhood of 40 M, stand by the statement he's not playing bad this year, people have some recency bias because of last game or two. if he went to a team like the Jets (he won't bc of Rodgers, but hypothetically if Rodgers wasn't there), they would be super bowl contenders

$40M per year?

laugh all you want that's a middle of the road contract these days, Daniel Jones and David Carr range

It is actually a top 10 contract average. I will take the under right now, by a good measure. I'll be happy to come back and eat crow if I'm wrong, because I am a Wilson fan. But I think you are way off here.

Lowest paid starting QB by Avg/year, after you exclude all the QBs on their rookie contract are Jimmy G and Geno at 25M, highest are 52-55M, 40M is middle of the pack.

 

[Faust]

Can Broncos QB Russell Wilson turn his season around?

 

[Wrigley]

Quietly top 10 average ppg

I'm seriously considering picking him up as my backup to Stroud

I also own Murray, but geez, he scares me.

 

[Stoneworker]

Awesome 'Russell Wilson Apology Form' for fans to fill out. Posted on Twitter by teammate Courtland Sutton

*parental discretion advised

 

[Faust]

Next Gen Stats
Russell Wilson recorded the 4th-highest open target rate (65.7%) in a game this season in Week 11.

It was Wilson's 6th game this season targeting receivers out of the backfield at a 30%+ rate. No other QB has more than 2 such games.

#MINvsDEN | #BroncosCountry

https://x.com/nextgenstats/status/1726459967887274239?s=61

 

[Mitchie]

Awesome 'Russell Wilson Apology Form' for fans to fill out. Posted on Twitter by teammate Courtland Sutton

*parental discretion advised

that's actually pretty hilarious

 

[LawFitz]

Pretty amazing what a highly-functional Head Coach can do in sports. Broncos trading and paying for Payton was beyond brilliant.

 

[Stoneworker]

Pretty amazing what a highly-functional Head Coach can do in sports. Broncos trading and paying for Payton was beyond brilliant.

Where Payton has made the most impact on Russ's game IMO is between the ears. Playing with a lot of confidence that seemingly grows each week. Getting more comfortable trusting receivers to make plays. Not indecisively holding onto the ball too long vs. earlier in the season.

 

[Faust]

Russell Wilson 'never doubted' midseason turnaround for 'resilient' Broncos team

 

[GoBirds]

Will he ever put up strong fantasy games or fine to cut bait if you have a top 5 QB? Not sure he’s providing much insurance from a fantasy perspective.

 

[Shrugs]

Will he ever put up strong fantasy games or fine to cut bait if you have a top 5 QB? Not sure he’s providing much insurance from a fantasy perspective.

This week against Hou when I’m starting him, he will have a strong game. But seriously, he’s put up solid point totals in 3 of the past four, and the schedule the rest of the way looks good.

 

[pollardsvision]

Will he ever put up strong fantasy games or fine to cut bait if you have a top 5 QB? Not sure he’s providing much insurance from a fantasy perspective.

I grabbed him a couple weeks ago as a Kyler Murray back-up. He's got a good schedule, including 2 Charger games left.
It's nothing exciting, but given the QB landscape these day, he's solid.

Probably really comes down to your league and whether or not you care to have a back-up QB. I normally don't, but with 1/3rd of the starting QB's gone for the season, a back-up QB seems more prudent.

 

[FarFromHome]

Starting with Lamar and Fields on bye. At Houston. Stroud can score. Get it Russ

 

[Faust]

How an improved Russell Wilson has sparked the Broncos

 

[Mitchie]

playing well from nfl perspective but not so great for fantasy, conservative game plan + good defense + team winning so nothing will change anytime soon = not a good recipe for fantasy success.

 

[Drake Hater]

playing well from nfl perspective but not so great for fantasy, conservative game plan + good defense + team winning so nothing will change anytime soon = not a good recipe for fantasy success.

Classic floor play. In this season of devastating QB injuries and performance, that's probably enough to float some teams this year.

 

[Faust]

Russell Wilson's 46-yard TD pass to Courtland Sutton traveled 60.8 yards in the air, the longest touchdown by air distance this season.

Wilson now has the two longest TD passes by air distance this season.

Completion Probability: 21.9%

#DENvsLAC | #BroncosCountry

https://x.com/nextgenstats/status/1733993411139780890?s=61

 

[Faust]

Russell Wilson still believes Sean Payton has faith in him, despite sideline interaction

 

[JohnnyU]

Russell Wilson still believes Sean Payton has faith in him, despite sideline interaction

I truly believe Peyton was pissed at the refs at the time he blew up at Wilson.

 

[zeeshan2]

[Rapoport] Sources: The #Broncos are strongly considering having QB Russell Wilson sit for the final two games, preserving financial flexibility for the offseason. Wilson has $37M in 2025 salary that vests in March of 2024, and if he suffered a serious injury, it would complicate matters.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think this is a good example of how it's not true when people say the blanket statement of "You can't move off _______"

Yes you can. It means taking a hit. But you can do it.

The key of course is the next guy needs to deliver.

 

[zamboni]

Pretty shady IMO - Russ has actually played well this year, not to mention the team actually has an outside shot of getting into the playoffs.

 

[General Malaise]

Pretty shady IMO - Russ has actually played well this year, not to mention the team actually has an outside shot of getting into the playoffs.

I'm not sure I agree with this. ESPN has him 21st in Total QBR. I think he's played okay, I don't think he's played well.

I also think guys in the locker room have had enough of his schtick. That's conjecture on my part, but I think his act has worn thin.

 

[Stoneworker]

According to Schefty, Jarrett Stidham will start. IMO this is the death knell for Russ's time in Denver.

Change in Denver: Broncos’ HC Sean Payton has informed his team that Jarrett Stidham will start Sunday vs. the Chargers, with Russell Wilson as the backup, per sources.

Adam Schefter tweets QB change for Broncos

 

[General Malaise]

According to Schefty, Jarrett Stidham will start. IMO this is the death knell for Russ's time in Denver.

Change in Denver: Broncos’ HC Sean Payton has informed his team that Jarrett Stidham will start Sunday vs. the Chargers, with Russell Wilson as the backup, per sources.

Adam Schefter tweets QB change for Broncos

Certainly no dysfunction in Denver, tho.....

 

[Terpman22]

Kudos the the Broncos for not being stubborn and forcing it. Payton has seen a lot of great QB play (primarily in Brees) and knows what he wants. They already vested a ton of draft capital and well, 2 years running not making the playoffs. Seems Russ is at his max at this juncture in his career at age 35. He is owed nothing more than what he already was paid. Can see him going to a team like Washington next year to be the bridge QB for whoever their most recent rookie QB will be in addition to a new HC.

 

[zamboni]

Pretty shady IMO - Russ has actually played well this year, not to mention the team actually has an outside shot of getting into the playoffs.

I'm not sure I agree with this. ESPN has him 21st in Total QBR. I think he's played okay, I don't think he's played well.

I also think guys in the locker room have had enough of his schtick. That's conjecture on my part, but I think his act has worn thin.

Fair - I guess it’s all relative based on absolute disaster from last year.

 

[LawFitz]

Prime example of Cap Savings (particularly, post June 1) being much more relevant than Dead Money when looking at potential offseason decisions.

Dead Money = Sunk Cost
Cap Savings = Opportunity Cost

 

[JohnnyU]

Don’t want that 37M being triggered if he gets hurt and can’t pass a physical in the spring. Smart move by the Broncos.

 

[Capella]

think this is a good example of how it's not true when people say the blanket statement of "You can't move off _______"

Of course they can. However it’s also 86M in dead cap money.

Easily one of the worst trades in nfl history.

 

[Capella]

He is owed nothing more than what he already was paid.

Huh. He is going to be 86M in dead cap hits through the next 2 years.

 

[General Malaise]

Still cannot believe a professional QB yelled on the sidelines for his team to bark out "RUN OR PASS" to help out their defense. What a doofus. https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/russell-wilson-run-pass-broncos-defense-seahawks-01gd0xpmxab3

 

[CletiusMaximus]

a series of three good tweets by Andrew Brandt today:

@AndrewBrandt
The Broncos went all in on Russell Wilson with trade and financial compensation. Now it appears they're all out. And it will cost them.
If they cut him, they owe him $39M, which they can afford.
But would take an $85M Dead Cap hit, which no team can afford. 1/3 of the Cap.

@AndrewBrandt

There's got to be interesting back story to what happened in one day in March of 2022.
Broncos hired Hackett to lure Rodgers, who was unhappy in GB for over a year. Seemed like it could happen.
Then, for some reason, Rodgers re-ups huge deal in GB; Broncos go all-in on Wilson.

@AndrewBrandt

Once again regarding NFL contracts: What you read and hear is not what reality is, even with the elite quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson signed a huge contract through 2028. He may not make it to 2024, certainly not to 2025.
NFL contracts are more suggestions than commitments.

 

[menobrown]

Don’t want that 37M being triggered if he gets hurt and can’t pass a physical in the spring. Smart move by the Broncos.

Yes and I'll give to Payton for handling this well. He tried to give the team a shot at making the playoffs, seems to obviously think Wilson gave them the best shot and risked a Wilson injury to do it. That's how you build a winning culture in the NFL. Tanking, constant losing, not making effort is how you lose a locker room high majority of them who could frankly not care any less what you do with your future draft picks.

But once the playoffs were done he did not hesitate to shut down Russ and not risk being stuck with that guarantee. Well done.

 

[menobrown]

@AndrewBrandt
The Broncos went all in on Russell Wilson with trade and financial compensation. Now it appears they're all out. And it will cost them.
If they cut him, they owe him $39M, which they can afford.
But would take an $85M Dead Cap hit, which no team can afford. 1/3 of the Cap.

I thought they only owed him $17m in remaining pay?

 

[Anarchy99]

@AndrewBrandt
The Broncos went all in on Russell Wilson with trade and financial compensation. Now it appears they're all out. And it will cost them.
If they cut him, they owe him $39M, which they can afford.
But would take an $85M Dead Cap hit, which no team can afford. 1/3 of the Cap.

I thought they only owed him $17m in remaining pay?

They owe him $17M in guaranteed salary and a $22M guaranteed bonus = $39M.

 

[menobrown]

@AndrewBrandt
The Broncos went all in on Russell Wilson with trade and financial compensation. Now it appears they're all out. And it will cost them.
If they cut him, they owe him $39M, which they can afford.
But would take an $85M Dead Cap hit, which no team can afford. 1/3 of the Cap.

I thought they only owed him $17m in remaining pay?

They owe him $17M in guaranteed salary and a $22M guaranteed bonus = $39M.

The bonus was not already paid?

 

[Anarchy99]

@AndrewBrandt
The Broncos went all in on Russell Wilson with trade and financial compensation. Now it appears they're all out. And it will cost them.
If they cut him, they owe him $39M, which they can afford.
But would take an $85M Dead Cap hit, which no team can afford. 1/3 of the Cap.

I thought they only owed him $17m in remaining pay?

They owe him $17M in guaranteed salary and a $22M guaranteed bonus = $39M.

The bonus was not already paid?

Spotrac doesn't specify.

 

[Grahamburn]

I should go dig up that trade thread where everyone piled on me for loving Seattle’s side of the deal. Receipts!

 

[Buckna]

Gotta figure the purge should be coming in the offseason then. Tim Patrick surely will be cut, Jeudy likely traded somewhere (although they will have to probably eat some salary), imagine they will either rework Sutton or more likely trade him as he’ll be 29. Kareem Jackson will be gone, Justin Simmons a likely cut too. They’ve got some high priced offensive and defensive linemen too. The $35.4MM hit in ‘24 isn’t too hard to maneuver around, but $50MM in ‘25 will be a lot harder. Front runners for sucking for whoever is the best QB next year?

 

[Stoneworker]

think this is a good example of how it's not true when people say the blanket statement of "You can't move off _______"

Of course they can. However it’s also 86M in dead cap money.

Easily one of the worst trades in nfl history.

The bigger culprit IMO was not the trade per se but the sight-unseen contract extension given before Wilson had played a down in a regular season game.

As others have pointed out, Russ's on-field performance has been far from horrible and a big improvement over last year.

However, the contract situation has forced Payton into a fish-or-cut-bait scenario perhaps much earlier than he would like.

 

[General Malaise]

Gotta figure the purge should be coming in the offseason then. Tim Patrick surely will be cut, Jeudy likely traded somewhere (although they will have to probably eat some salary), imagine they will either rework Sutton or more likely trade him as he’ll be 29. Kareem Jackson will be gone, Justin Simmons a likely cut too. They’ve got some high priced offensive and defensive linemen too. The $35.4MM hit in ‘24 isn’t too hard to maneuver around, but $50MM in ‘25 will be a lot harder. Front runners for sucking for whoever is the best QB next year?

Russell Wilson for Devon Witherspoon alone was a great trade for Seattle. Let's review the whole trade:


In March 2022, the Seattle Seahawks traded their franchise signal-caller and a fourth-round pick in exchange for quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant and defensive tackle Shelby Harris. Denver also sent two first-round draft picks, two second-round draft picks and one fifth-round pick for Wilson.

Those picks ended up being offensive lineman Charles Cross (2022 first-round pick), outside linebacker Boye Mafe (2022 second-round pick), outside linebacker Tyreke Smith (2022 fifth-round pick), cornerback Devon Witherspoon (2023 first-round pick) and edge rusher Derick Hall (2023 second-round pick).

Harris was cut by Seattle.
Lock is a backup who played a pivotal role in keeping Seattle's playoff hopes alive in 2023.
Fant is a meh. 4 TDs and 700 yards in two years.
Charles Cross solid starter who is improving.
Boye Mafe starts at OLB and has 9 sacks on the season.
Tyreke Smith was cut by Seattle, on the PS for Arizona.
Devon Witherspoon is in the running for defensive rookie of the year and already one of the best CBs in football.
Derick Hall hasn't done much this year, but getting some opportunities late this season.

 

[Mitchie]

put me in the minority camp that thinks Russ played pretty well this year, not great but better than a lot of QBs. seems to me and i can be wrong that Payton never wanted Russ to work. I mean yes they won some games but could've let him air it out a bit and take some chances I mean not a ton to lose really. Also Russ really didn't have a whole lot to work with. Sutton was best wr by far, and not much else, running game was meh.

 

[Buckna]

think this is a good example of how it's not true when people say the blanket statement of "You can't move off _______"

Of course they can. However it’s also 86M in dead cap money.

Easily one of the worst trades in nfl history.

The bigger culprit IMO was not the trade per se but the sight-unseen contract extension given before Wilson had played a down in a regular season game.

As others have pointed out, Russ's on-field performance has been far from horrible and a big improvement over last year.

However, the contract situation has forced Payton into a fish-or-cut-bait scenario perhaps much earlier than he would like.

Beyond stupid extension. Didn’t need to pay him yet (could have waited until mid-season or 2023 if he delivered), and not only had he not even played a regular season game but Hackett didn’t even play Wilson in the preseason and yet they gave him a massive guaranteed extension without seeing Wilson do anything other than practice. Had they not extended him, could have let him walk this offseason with zero dead money and saved over $135MM in cap space over 4 years.

 

[Gally]

Seems like the NFLPA would have issue with this type of benching. It makes sense for the team but seems like it is a circumventing of honoring the total contract.

 

[Mitchie]

Seems like the NFLPA would have issue with this type of benching. It makes sense for the team but seems like it is a circumventing of honoring the total contract.

has been done before though, pretty sure Carr got benched last year for same reason

 

[zamboni]

Seems like the NFLPA would have issue with this type of benching. It makes sense for the team but seems like it is a circumventing of honoring the total contract.

has been done before though, pretty sure Carr got benched last year for same reason

Wasn’t that for performance though as well - or at least justifiably? I don’t recall the specifics at the time.

 

[Buckna]

Seems like the NFLPA would have issue with this type of benching. It makes sense for the team but seems like it is a circumventing of honoring the total contract.

has been done before though, pretty sure Carr got benched last year for same reason

Texans also did something similar with Watson when he was going through his legal troubles. Couldn’t suspend him so just paid him to stay home. With Carr as long as he got paid, I don’t think it matters if he got benched similar to Wilson.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

@AndrewBrandt
The Broncos went all in on Russell Wilson with trade and financial compensation. Now it appears they're all out. And it will cost them.
If they cut him, they owe him $39M, which they can afford.
But would take an $85M Dead Cap hit, which no team can afford. 1/3 of the Cap.

I thought they only owed him $17m in remaining pay?

They owe him $17M in guaranteed salary and a $22M guaranteed bonus = $39M.

The bonus was not already paid?

Spotrac doesn't specify.

There is a column heading "yearly cash" which could be interpreted to mean what is owed by the team to the player in cash each year. This column indicates $39m for next season as you and Andrew Brandt note. It also indicates his "signing bonus" was $50m, which for me means that is the amount of cash paid upfront with remaining guarantees paid when due each season, likely as a result of being on the roster as of a certain date. Its also interesting that Spotrac identifies the end of 2026 as the "potential out" for his contract, at which time the dead cap would be just $31,200,000.

The Bucs have the highest dead cap this season per spotrac at about $81M and they claim the league average is $37.5M. I can't claim to fully understand what an $85M dead cap for one player would mean, but it certainly isn't good.