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QB Sam Darnold, SEA (3 Viewers)

That said, IIRC when he was drafted people thought the Giants were insane for taking him where they did. Maybe I’m misremembering.

Nope. Spot on. Gettleman’s reasoning more than anything came into question. Also, I think they had a pick later in the round that they could have gotten him with. Indeed they did. They took Dexter Lawrence at 17. They could have taken Josh Hines-Allen or Brian Burns or Christian Wilkins instead of Jones and picked Jones at 17, even though Lawrence, who turned out to be an almost dominant player, was a good pick, all things considered. That draft looks gross in retrospect. A.J. Brown at 51. Metcalf at 64. Just some bad misses by teams. McLaurin at 76. There was value there, but these guys fell compared to their peers (Hollywood Brown, N’Keal Harry, Parris Campbell, etc.)

Dwayne Haskins at 15 to Washington.

Oooof.

Kyler went first. Some years there just aren’t dominant starting QBs to be had. Lock went in the second round. And on it goes.
 
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If there was a game where I had a nightmare of me in a playoff game naked and playing football for the first time in my life on prime time, I would had been Sam Darnold. But here's the thing: I would had given up the sack with less yards than he did. I would had gone the full Jim Everett, just take the knee and even better, insist that I take that snap under center. I would be "The Darnold, The Art of the Kneel". I haven't seen a QB panic like that since JT O'Sullivan with the 49ers in a Mike Martz offense, and now JTO is like a sage when it comes to evaluating QB's on YouTube. I am sure JTO has some new content up analyzing The Darnold this past game. Even though he played worse or like him when he had to start on the NFL.
 
Has it dawned on anybody yet that Jones might be looking to be a starter in the league and that somebody will likely pay him to do it? This isn’t the sort of thing where it’s Darnold or Jones. It’s McCarthy for sure and then maybe (at most) one of the other guys if they can convince one of the other guys to turn down a payday.
I fully expect Danny 10-pennies to want to start somewhere.

I think his market will be a little stiffer than Darnold’s, but he gets a little benefit of the doubt for
1. Being on some baaaaad Giants teams
2. Having some evidence of competence/improvement over his career.

Now, I, personally, don’t believe he’s improved. Like, at all. Sure, he’s fumbled a lot less. But having watched a lot of his play, it just doesn’t look to me that he’s evolved at all as a passer (though he continues to impress me with his legs from time to time).

I don’t think that’ll be extremely valuable on the open market, but like Darnold, all it’ll take is one team to take a chance on him.

He’s probably where Darnold was last year in terms of getting a new gig. I could see a scenario where he stays in MIN as the presumptive starter “until JJM is ready” which could be 0 games or it could be 5-10. Depends on whether that pays better than whatever options he might have. He could see that as a more likely chance of getting starts.

Jones is a tricky one to evaluate.
A team will need 2 things to sign Jones to a starter's deal:

1. They'll need to BELIEVE they can resurrect his career. Not think, not want, not hope.
2. They'll need to BELIEVE they are getting a super value for him. Darnold's 2024 contract is kind of the boilerplate for prove it deals like this. 1 year 10mil. I'd be very surprised if he gets a mutliyear deal that isn't easy to get out from under.

I'm not sure any of the QB needy teams have the staff to do it.
 
but Darnold will be setting the price? Not sure if you thought that through that but that statement is a bit out there.
It’s pretty much what the agent in that link above is saying.

There’s a market rate for QBs like him. It’s the “baker mayfield” type deal. That’s the 3rd or 4th article I’ve read that suggests that as his range. That’s Darnold setting the price. He’s going to expect something in that range.

Why would that be “out there”? It’s basically what the football talking heads are saying.

Now add to that the rarity of available QB, and that he may have more than 1 suitor.

Seems pretty boilerplate.
ok i misunderstood what you meant by setting the price, i think he'll have a decent market
 
I'm not Faust over here but I thought this was a good and informative article by ex-agent Joel Correy with his expectations on Darnold's value and the Vikings options:

From the article, this is what much of it boils down to in Sam's favor, which is what has been discussed quite a bit above. He's a decent QB and timing is everything.

"Darnold has two big things in his favor despite ending the season on a sour note. He's the best quarterback with an expiring contract and the upcoming quarterback draft class is a lot weaker than the 2024 draft class. "
 
Has it dawned on anybody yet that Jones might be looking to be a starter in the league and that somebody will likely pay him to do it?
Yup - as mentioned just above, timing is everything. In another year, Jones probably has no shot at doing anything but holding the clipboard. Due to supply/demand dynamics this year, Jones may get a one-year prove it deal by a team that couldn't get a starter in the draft, but still looking for one.
 
Honestly, I think you covered it.
Yeah, but I’m not a GM.

There could well be someone out there who sees the Danny Dimes cup as half full.

That said, IIRC when he was drafted people thought the Giants were insane for taking him where they did. Maybe I’m misremembering.

You aren't misremembering.

 
A team will need 2 things to sign Jones to a starter's deal:

1. They'll need to BELIEVE they can resurrect his career. Not think, not want, not hope.
2. They'll need to BELIEVE they are getting a super value for him. Darnold's 2024 contract is kind of the boilerplate for prove it deals like this. 1 year 10mil. I'd be very surprised if he gets a mutliyear deal that isn't easy to get out from under.

I'm not sure any of the QB needy teams have the staff to do it.
Pretty sure this thought experiment ends at #1, since virtually no one believed in DJ when he was drafted.

Difficult to imagine the list of believers has increased after seeing a few years of his play.
 
Honestly, I think you covered it.
Yeah, but I’m not a GM.

There could well be someone out there who sees the Danny Dimes cup as half full.

That said, IIRC when he was drafted people thought the Giants were insane for taking him where they did. Maybe I’m misremembering.

You aren't misremembering.

Lmao somehow I’d never seen that.
 
Honestly, I think you covered it.
Yeah, but I’m not a GM.

There could well be someone out there who sees the Danny Dimes cup as half full.

That said, IIRC when he was drafted people thought the Giants were insane for taking him where they did. Maybe I’m misremembering.

You aren't misremembering.

Lmao somehow I’d never seen that.
This one is another big favorite of mine:

 
(TheHuddle) Minnesota Viking impending free-agent QB Sam Darnold has 'earned the right to be a free agent,' although head coach Kevin O'Connell told reporters recently that the team will 'continue to have ongoing dialogue and discussions' with him. Analysis: At this point, it appears the Vikings are comfortable with allowing Darnold to test the market and prepping 2024 rookie J.J. McCarthy to be the starter. Darnold is going to have a market in free agency with so many quarterback-needy teams and the draft class not particularly deep at the position. The Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders appear to be among the favorites for his services.
 
who knows. It would make a lot more sense for the Vikings to go with JJM on his rookie deal. That’s the dream for most franchises - win with a cheap QB under contract, and spend to build around him.
This is repeated ad nauseam but the reality is that since 2000 only six Super Bowl winning QBs were on their rookie contracts

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Ben Roethlisberger
  3. Eli Manning
  4. Joe Flacco
  5. Russell Wilson
  6. Patrick Mahomes
The 2017-18 Eagles should really be added to this list. Wentz was on his rookie contract and was the (MVP-caliber) starter until he got hurt. They won the SB with backup Foles, who did not have a huge contract. So the effect was the same as for those other six.
 
who knows. It would make a lot more sense for the Vikings to go with JJM on his rookie deal. That’s the dream for most franchises - win with a cheap QB under contract, and spend to build around him.
This is repeated ad nauseam but the reality is that since 2000 only six Super Bowl winning QBs were on their rookie contracts

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Ben Roethlisberger
  3. Eli Manning
  4. Joe Flacco
  5. Russell Wilson
  6. Patrick Mahomes
The 2017-18 Eagles should really be added to this list. Wentz was on his rookie contract and was the (MVP-caliber) starter until he got hurt. They won the SB with backup Foles, who did not have a huge contract. So the effect was the same as for those other six.
Okay, so seven out of the last 25 (or is it 24, whatever). Point is, it's not a decided advantage.
 
who knows. It would make a lot more sense for the Vikings to go with JJM on his rookie deal. That’s the dream for most franchises - win with a cheap QB under contract, and spend to build around him.
This is repeated ad nauseam but the reality is that since 2000 only six Super Bowl winning QBs were on their rookie contracts

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Ben Roethlisberger
  3. Eli Manning
  4. Joe Flacco
  5. Russell Wilson
  6. Patrick Mahomes
The 2017-18 Eagles should really be added to this list. Wentz was on his rookie contract and was the (MVP-caliber) starter until he got hurt. They won the SB with backup Foles, who did not have a huge contract. So the effect was the same as for those other six.
Okay, so seven out of the last 25 (or is it 24, whatever). Point is, it's not a decided advantage.
~30%?

Seems like more than a relevant sample size & %.
 
who knows. It would make a lot more sense for the Vikings to go with JJM on his rookie deal. That’s the dream for most franchises - win with a cheap QB under contract, and spend to build around him.
This is repeated ad nauseam but the reality is that since 2000 only six Super Bowl winning QBs were on their rookie contracts

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Ben Roethlisberger
  3. Eli Manning
  4. Joe Flacco
  5. Russell Wilson
  6. Patrick Mahomes
The 2017-18 Eagles should really be added to this list. Wentz was on his rookie contract and was the (MVP-caliber) starter until he got hurt. They won the SB with backup Foles, who did not have a huge contract. So the effect was the same as for those other six.
Okay, so seven out of the last 25 (or is it 24, whatever). Point is, it's not a decided advantage.
~30%?

Seems like more than a relevant sample size & %.
So 70% didn't?

Let's just sum it up like this - could it be a determining factor sometimes? Possibly. Is it a magic bullet? No.
 
So 70% didn't?

Let's just sum it up like this - could it be a determining factor sometimes? Possibly. Is it a magic bullet? No.
Sure, it’s only 1 part of a much larger equation.

Other factors might include but are not limited to:
• coaching
• GM competence / drafting well / roster building
• players staying healthy
• schedule
• ?????
• profit?

I’m just saying, there are so many factors that go into winning a SB, not the least of which being luck.

It’s more easily definable than the underpants gnomes reference, but 30% is a pretty sizable % for a factor to be present when looking at that large a sample size. Significant enough that it probably matters.

Obviously not every team with a rookie contract QB is going to spend the same, draft quality players, or perform on the field. But having that cheap QB contract seems like enough of a factor to be relevant. It’s not nothing.
 
IMO, the most sensible Vikings beat reporter has to be Will Ragatz

Will Ragatz
@WillRagatz


Tag-and-trade for Darnold was going to be hard to pull off for multiple reasons, so this news that he won't be tagged doesn't mean he won't have a strong market in free agency. Vikings could be in line to get another third-round comp pick next year.
 
Daniel Jeremiah
If Darnold gets to the market, I'd be very curious to see if the Colts got involved. I think he's a clear upgrade for a team that needs to win right now.
Interesting, I didn’t think they’d move off Richardson already. OTOH, their rival who also drafted a QB that draft is probably one of the competitors for Sam. Figure, in order imo of likelihood - Raiders, Steelers, titans, giants. Among others.
 
Daniel Jeremiah
If Darnold gets to the market, I'd be very curious to see if the Colts got involved. I think he's a clear upgrade for a team that needs to win right now.
Interesting, I didn’t think they’d move off Richardson already. OTOH, their rival who also drafted a QB that draft is probably one of the competitors for Sam. Figure, in order imo of likelihood - Raiders, Steelers, titans, giants. Among others.
AR was historically bad and the Colts are in a position to win, and win big, with a solid QB. Darnold is only 27 and I could see them keeping AR through his rookie deal as the backup.
 
Daniel Jeremiah
If Darnold gets to the market, I'd be very curious to see if the Colts got involved. I think he's a clear upgrade for a team that needs to win right now.
Interesting, I didn’t think they’d move off Richardson already. OTOH, their rival who also drafted a QB that draft is probably one of the competitors for Sam. Figure, in order imo of likelihood - Raiders, Steelers, titans, giants. Among others.
AR was historically bad and the Colts are in a position to win, and win big, with a solid QB. Darnold is only 27 and I could see them keeping AR through his rookie deal as the backup.
Would give them options to package AR in around the GL in which he has been very effective. Colts would instantly become a serious contender in that division with an upgrade at QB.
 
Daniel Jeremiah
If Darnold gets to the market, I'd be very curious to see if the Colts got involved. I think he's a clear upgrade for a team that needs to win right now.
Interesting, I didn’t think they’d move off Richardson already. OTOH, their rival who also drafted a QB that draft is probably one of the competitors for Sam. Figure, in order imo of likelihood - Raiders, Steelers, titans, giants. Among others.
Steelers would surprise me a lot. I just don't see them spending 40 mill on a QB. I'd bet they either roll with Fields or a cheaper vet like Cousins/Rodgers. And/or a rookie.

2 years in, Richardson has been clearly outplayed by Minshew and Flacco, and the HC/GM are both on the hot seat. If they stick with Richardson and he doesn't make a significant leap forward, they might not last the season. Other than Daboll/Schoen, I don't think there is a hotter seat in the NFL.
 
Seahawks going to make a run at him now?
Yes and will be shocked if they don't land him. Just mentioned in the Geno thread that's why this trade went down now, they needed to wait to make sure he was not tagged.

Worked/played for a year in SF under Kubiak.

Good business IMO getting younger at the position and a nice pick in return.
 
It's weird to me. I like Darnold and all but he had a perfect storm season last year with a legit QB guru HC. Even if the contracts are identical, is Darnold in another new system and a lesser o-line really an on field improvement over what we know Geno can do in Seattle?

I'm a USC fan, I like Darnold but, I'm also a Raider fan and my first thought after the Raiders traded for Geno was "Thank goodness the Raiders won't be the test case to see if Darnold has legitimately turned his career around."

I sincerely hope Darnold takes Seattle to a Super Bowl, losing to Geno Smith and the Raiders of course but I have my doubts.
 
Seahawks going to make a run at him now?
Yes and will be shocked if they don't land him. Just mentioned in the Geno thread that's why this trade went down now, they needed to wait to make sure he was not tagged.

Worked/played for a year in SF under Kubiak.

Good business IMO getting younger at the position and a nice pick in return.
Definitely a situation to watch as I think Kubiak means a lot of fantasy upside is out there.
 
Seahawks going to make a run at him now?
Reportedly yes - also Giants & TEN.

Of the 3 the Seahawks are the best run franchise but tough division.
Darnold behind THAT OL is asking for trouble. Every week could look like the Rams playoff game.
Yeah, if Seattle is smart, they draft an OL and sign a second to rebuild that line. It will be a problem
Yeah, they’ll have to prioritize the OL for sure.
 
Seahawks going to make a run at him now?
Reportedly yes - also Giants & TEN.

Of the 3 the Seahawks are the best run franchise but tough division.
Darnold behind THAT OL is asking for trouble. Every week could look like the Rams playoff game.
Yeah, if Seattle is smart, they draft an OL and sign a second to rebuild that line. It will be a problem
And when they trade DK they can upgrade their OL even more. Gotta build there.
 
Seahawks going to make a run at him now?
Yes and will be shocked if they don't land him. Just mentioned in the Geno thread that's why this trade went down now, they needed to wait to make sure he was not tagged.

Worked/played for a year in SF under Kubiak.

Good business IMO getting younger at the position and a nice pick in return.

Wouldn't Seattle (as an organization) wait to trade Geno so they're assured of one of the two, or is Seattle making sure the Raiders are out of the market for a QB with that move so they don't get into a bidding war over Darnold? If it's the latter, that might be a sneaky 3-D chess there, unless another team swoops in and leaves Seattle without anything.
 
Seahawks going to make a run at him now?
Yes and will be shocked if they don't land him. Just mentioned in the Geno thread that's why this trade went down now, they needed to wait to make sure he was not tagged.

Worked/played for a year in SF under Kubiak.

Good business IMO getting younger at the position and a nice pick in return.

Wouldn't Seattle (as an organization) wait to trade Geno so they're assured of one of the two, or is Seattle making sure the Raiders are out of the market for a QB with that move so they don't get into a bidding war over Darnold? If it's the latter, that might be a sneaky 3-D chess there, unless another team swoops in and leaves Seattle without anything.

I think like Meno here in that I don't think Seattle makes this deal 2 days before free agency and 7 weeks before the draft unless they have a very good idea who their next QB is (unless they are sold on Sam Howell which I would be surprised by)...especially if you add in that they are drafting #19 in a weak rookie QB class and only traded Geno for a third round pick (i.e. this was not a sweetheart deal you could not turn down so there was no rush to make this deal)...with Darnold being the "most obtainable" quality QB it does feel like where this is heading...this is a good move for the Raiders...Carroll has history with Geno and they now get some breathing room at the position...they can still continue developing O'Connell if they believe in him or draft a rookie QB that they don't have to rush or they can kick the can down the road for a year...they now have options where before this trade they were in a very tough spot...the fact they only had to deal a #3 to get out of this hole (at least short-term) has to be a sigh of relief.
 
Seahawks going to make a run at him now?
Yes and will be shocked if they don't land him. Just mentioned in the Geno thread that's why this trade went down now, they needed to wait to make sure he was not tagged.

Worked/played for a year in SF under Kubiak.

Good business IMO getting younger at the position and a nice pick in return.

Wouldn't Seattle (as an organization) wait to trade Geno so they're assured of one of the two, or is Seattle making sure the Raiders are out of the market for a QB with that move so they don't get into a bidding war over Darnold? If it's the latter, that might be a sneaky 3-D chess there, unless another team swoops in and leaves Seattle without anything.

I think like Meno here in that I don't think Seattle makes this deal 2 days before free agency and 7 weeks before the draft unless they have a very good idea who their next QB is (unless they are sold on Sam Howell which I would be surprised by)...especially if you add in that they are drafting #19 in a weak rookie QB class and only traded Geno for a third round pick (i.e. this was not a sweetheart deal you could not turn down so there was no rush to make this deal)...with Darnold being the "most obtainable" quality QB it does feel like where this is heading...this is a good move for the Raiders...Carroll has history with Geno and they now get some breathing room at the position...they can still continue developing O'Connell if they believe in him or draft a rookie QB that they don't have to rush or they can kick the can down the road for a year...they now have options where before this trade they were in a very tough spot...the fact they only had to deal a #3 to get out of this hole (at least short-term) has to be a sigh of relief.

"Until the name is on the dotted line" is my angle here in saying that. I've seen weirder things happen in sports than having an oral agreement that doesn't translate once some stuff starts going down.

I'm sure they have some sort of agreement with Darnold, but nobody is bound by anything yet.
 
Seahawks going to make a run at him now?
Yes and will be shocked if they don't land him. Just mentioned in the Geno thread that's why this trade went down now, they needed to wait to make sure he was not tagged.

Worked/played for a year in SF under Kubiak.

Good business IMO getting younger at the position and a nice pick in return.

Wouldn't Seattle (as an organization) wait to trade Geno so they're assured of one of the two, or is Seattle making sure the Raiders are out of the market for a QB with that move so they don't get into a bidding war over Darnold? If it's the latter, that might be a sneaky 3-D chess there, unless another team swoops in and leaves Seattle without anything.

I think like Meno here in that I don't think Seattle makes this deal 2 days before free agency and 7 weeks before the draft unless they have a very good idea who their next QB is (unless they are sold on Sam Howell which I would be surprised by)...especially if you add in that they are drafting #19 in a weak rookie QB class and only traded Geno for a third round pick (i.e. this was not a sweetheart deal you could not turn down so there was no rush to make this deal)...with Darnold being the "most obtainable" quality QB it does feel like where this is heading...this is a good move for the Raiders...Carroll has history with Geno and they now get some breathing room at the position...they can still continue developing O'Connell if they believe in him or draft a rookie QB that they don't have to rush or they can kick the can down the road for a year...they now have options where before this trade they were in a very tough spot...the fact they only had to deal a #3 to get out of this hole (at least short-term) has to be a sigh of relief.

"Until the name is on the dotted line" is my angle here in saying that. I've seen weirder things happen in sports than having an oral agreement that doesn't translate once some stuff starts going down.

I'm sure they have some sort of agreement with Darnold, but nobody is bound by anything yet.

I don't disagree one bit...all speculation right now...they may not have any interest in Darnold for all we know...that being said I just find it hard to believe they make this type of deal at this time without feeling highly confident they know who their QB in 2025 is going to be and the easy guess right now looking at the landscape is it is Darnold...maybe we get thrown a curveball and they sign Justin Fields on Monday or trade DKM to the Pats and get Joe Milton (yes I am am reaching on this one) as part of the return or Darnold resigns with the Vikings and they trade for JJM but right now the betting $ has to be on Darnold.
 
just find it hard to believe they make this type of deal at this time without feeling highly confident they know who their QB in 2025 is going to be and the easy guess right now looking at the landscape is it is Darnold.

I agree and so would Ockham/Occam. He's very likely a Seahawk. But I remember guys walking away from agreements with the Jets (see: Belichick, Bill), so it does happen. (I know, I know—"it's the Jets!") Heh.
 
just find it hard to believe they make this type of deal at this time without feeling highly confident they know who their QB in 2025 is going to be and the easy guess right now looking at the landscape is it is Darnold.

I agree and so would Ockham/Occam. He's very likely a Seahawk. But I remember guys walking away from agreements with the Jets (see: Belichick, Bill), so it does happen. (I know, I know—"it's the Jets!") Heh.
I like the idea of Arkham’s Razor - that Darnold will fall into a vat of chemicals and emerge a super villain, terrorizing Gotham.

You may carry on with your otherwise normal morning.
 
I'm guessing I'll be in the minority, but I think Geno>>>>Darnold. Seattle has worse play calling, worse weapons, worse OL than the Vikings had. I'm not saying he'll go back to being Jets Darnold, but I think its equally as likely as him repeating 2024.

I think they’re fairly close. I agree Darnold outside that Minny qb comfort zone is not a recipe for success.
 

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