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QB strategy waiting until everyone else takes a QB, Has anyone else do (1 Viewer)

I try this every yr and almost never seems to work for me. I always struggle at the QB position and feels like I'm wasting a couple of roster spaces on the other QBBCs. This yr I made sure I had a top 7 QB so I wouldn't deal with the headache.

 
Maybe they know EXACTLY what they are doing. If the drafter sees you are building a strong team, why should you still get a good QB? This happened to me in Las Vegas FFPC main event last year. RG3 was making his way down to me in the 10th round and I needed a QB. The team at 4 already had Newton, and he saw I needed a QB. He took him on purpose because I was building a powerhouse.

RG3 would have put me over the top and I would have won that league. Instead, I got stuck with Jay Cutler and other scraps and it killed me.
I've seen just as many scenarios where owners tried to get cute and #### block teams at a position where it totally blew up in their face.

How'd the guy who drafted Griffin with Newton end up?
He made the playoffs and I believe finish 2nd.

 
I honestly don't see the upside in this strategy for this year. The reason why I single out this year is because the consensus for almost every draft is that running backs go--and they go early. If you look at the average draft this year--- the first 5 rounds are very running back and wr heavy-- with the exceptions of gronk, graham, brees, manning, rodgers (and possibly cam). Most teams are taking a qb in 5-8th rounds--which means that by then--they already have 2-3 rbs, and 2-3 wr's, and possibly 1 te. Generally speaking--if you can get a solid starting qb--while the rest of your starting roster spots are pretty close to being filled--I see no point in waiting longer and ending up with a weekly starter like dalton or rivers. QB's are already devalued in drafts this year--- solid starting qb's are getting drafted in the mid rounds-- why settle for a lower end option when you can already get a solid option for a reasonably low price? I'd much rather have a quality starting qb every week than to have an rb4 sitting on my bench. It may have made sense last year when qb's were flying off the board early.

 
One other thing Flex position, W-RB-TE plus 7 points for Rushing TD instead of 6, 4 points for passing TD. QB was undervalued in the scoring setup. Still some guppys decided they would take Brady and Matt Ryan for their QB, or Brees and VICK. I hope it does blow up in their faces. I have had to go QB this late once before and someone usual blows up that wasn't expected to. I hoping its Bradford myself.

 
Depends on your league setup and the people playing in it/drafting.

6pt TD leagues and expeciallly 2QB leagues, they'll go off the board early and waiting you'll probably get screwed.

Most leagues I play in QB's score 50% more points then RB's and 3x the points of WR's per there "teers/rankings".

So in those leagues like above but 1QB league, I'm usually getting in by the 4th round at least, generally 2nd or 3rd.

(2 QB league I'm in by 1st or second depending on what slot I'm drafting from, then getting the second by round 5-)

-------

This isn't meant to brag but just for clarification, in those leagues I'm generally in the hunt for top points and playoffs.

 
With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.

*ahem*

:lmao:

 
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With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.

*ahem*

:lmao:
Not sure what is so funny. Have you played in the high stakes leagues? FFPC, NFFC??

 
I used to almost always do this when I did redrafts, but it would sometimes backfire when you would get some idiot who would take his 2nd QB in the 7th round (which is the mark of someone who really doesn't know that they are doing). But I almost always waited till almost everyone had a QB before I would take mine.
I take a backup QB early all the time, often with great success. If nothing else, you screw over everyone who thought they were so smart because they were waiting, and you can usually trade your backup for something of value midway through the season when they're sick of trotting out Andrew Dalton every week. In several of the staff mocks I was taking Rodgers/Brees in the 3rd and Griffin in the 8th because they simply possessed far too much value. If the season plays out according to my expectations, the move is a major net positive for me. People underestimate just how much VBD a top-3 QB winds up producing, and I'll gladly roster two of them, even if for no other reason than to take one of them out of the pool for my competitors to use against me
It has been some years since I have seen anyone talking about this. But it might be interesting to revisit the idea of blocking.

What I mean by blocking is taking a player not because you need the player, but because the points that player will give your opponent is more negative value to you than drafting another player who would be a positive for you.

Especially at the QB position where things are somewhat more linear. Based on your projections you may see that there is one QB left available who will give a 4pt/game advantage over the rest of the QB available. You may be looking at a RB or WR that you need compared to this QB that you don't due to having already drafted a QB before. So in that sense you are not gaining any value for the QB pick to your total potential points scored, as you will likely be starting the QB you drafted before. However if all the other players remaining to you are only offering a 2pt/game advantage. You have to ask yourself if you might not be better off giving your opponents -4pts/game or if you should take the 2pt/game for your team. Which if you have not yet filled all of your positions/flex options is very relevant.

What I recall from the last time this was discussed at length most found that blocking was not a worthwhile strategy. Mainly because it is only giving you an advantage against one team, while picking a position of need gives you that advantage against the field. I am not sure I entirely agree with this counter argument. I think the idea is interesting and worth re-visiting.

Of course when Dalton scores as much as most of those top 12 QB you will be saying why didn't I wait longer. But that is another story. :)
You can't say that a backup QB has no value to your team, though. Last year, Matt Stafford was the 4th QB off the board. Eli Manning was 6th. Mike Vick was 8th. Philip Rivers was 11th. Would those teams have derived no value from drafting an early backup? Would the guy who took Tom Brady in 2008 have derived no value from drafting a backup early? You can't just look at it like "okay, so I took a QB early, so my backup will literally not produce any value for me whatsoever except as a bye-week fill-in".

I believe that Griffin is an 60+ VBD player this year. If I'm sitting in the 8th round, and my choice is between Griffin (who I view as an 60-VBD player) or a guy like Miles Austin (who might be a 10-20 VBD player), then I'm taking Griffin. Either I can trade him for much more than Miles Austin, or else I get nearly half as much VBD just from starting Griffin during my bye week as I'd get from starting Austin for the full year. Worst case scenario, there are just 30 60+ VBD players, and I take one of them out of the pool, and that has value, too.

I'm not saying that I'm going to draft my 11th ranked QB as the 11th QB off the board just because I think the dropoff is big. I'm saying that if we're in the 8th round, and my 5th ranked QB is still on the board, and the next-best QB ranks 12th, I'm absolutely taking my 5th ranked QB all day long.

 
Worked last year where I got manning in the 8th...

Trying again in both leagues this year.

One team I have Luck, the other I have both RG3/Luck

 
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I usually wait until after the top 4-5 QBs are gone, then I'm open to grabbing one. I've found this to keep me in the focus I try to have during drafts: be flexible. It allows me to be more aware someone may have fallen. This year, in my main 12 team redraft, I took Romo @ 6.04. Other owners were grabbing QB's, and I knew a couple of them like playing the blocking game (hell, one owner took Brees Rd 2, then Cam Rd 5), so backups would be falling soon. I wound up w/ Phillip freaking Rivers as my backup, Tannehill, Locker & Manuel are FA, so the pickings are pretty slim

 
I used this strategy this year and my league was completely crazy with their QB values and were taking a backup in round 6 and 7 thus blowing up my theory. I ended up with Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer. However, the rest of my team is stacked. I was hoping to get Dalton and whiffed. I'm not upset though as I can easily trade for one or pick up one off the ww.

 
I did this in an 18 team IDP league and it kinda blew up in my face, people drafted 2 and 3 QB early and you only play 1. I ended up with EJ Manuel and T. Pryor, but I was able to stack my RB, TE and IDP players. I think the key is to not panic and stick to your strategy, I could have freaked out and reached for a mediocre QB passing on quality players at other positions and I would have finished the draft with a team that has no shot.

I think my case is different than most because in a 18 team IDP league you must sacrifice at least two positions to have a solid team, I decided to go for 1 WR1 and no QB to stack my RBs, TEs and IDP. I did this based on the point system and the fact that through out the year a lot of WR come from no where and are available in FA, don't think you can find much value in FA at RB,TE with 18 teams.

 
pizzatyme said:
Hoss Style said:
ImTheScientist said:
Man of Zen said:
ImTheScientist said:
With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.

*ahem*

:lmao:
Not sure what is so funny. Have you played in the high stakes leagues? FFPC, NFFC??
Thought it was pretty obvious, I thought it was funny too.

The same philosophy for any game applies to fantasy football. Your bankroll does not determine your level of skill - fish exist at every level.

 
pizzatyme said:
Hoss Style said:
ImTheScientist said:
Man of Zen said:
ImTheScientist said:
With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.*ahem*

:lmao:
Not sure what is so funny. Have you played in the high stakes leagues? FFPC, NFFC??
Thought it was pretty obvious, I thought it was funny too.

The same philosophy for any game applies to fantasy football. Your bankroll does not determine your level of skill - fish exist at every level.
True, competition does. With that said you don't find half interested people in high stake formats. The guy you will try to trade your entire bench for Aaron Rodgers isn't around to help you.

 
pizzatyme said:
Hoss Style said:
ImTheScientist said:
Man of Zen said:
ImTheScientist said:
With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.*ahem*

:lmao:
Not sure what is so funny. Have you played in the high stakes leagues? FFPC, NFFC??
Thought it was pretty obvious, I thought it was funny too.

The same philosophy for any game applies to fantasy football. Your bankroll does not determine your level of skill - fish exist at every level.
True, competition does. With that said you don't find half interested people in high stake formats. The guy you will try to trade your entire bench for Aaron Rodgers isn't around to help you.
I know people that play $1/$2 card games that they made up and no one who wasn't a degenerate gambler would even consider playing, they play in several 10-14 team $500-$1500 leagues and they are all worse than everyone in my leagues, $20/$25/$30/$50.

It takes very little to show up on draft day and then submit a roster for 16 weeks. If my bankroll could support a hit, I would move up because I know more than enough people at higher stakes that are just completely awful - I'm sure this extends to online as it did with poker.

Edit: Also, apologies to the rest of thread for the continued off-topic discussion.

 
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I had two drafts where a guy in each draft tried this. It didn't work out. They were grabbing their 2nd and 3rd WR's when the last QB1 tier (RG3, Wilson, Luck, Romo) were being drafted.

 
pizzatyme said:
Hoss Style said:
ImTheScientist said:
Man of Zen said:
ImTheScientist said:
With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.

*ahem*

:lmao:
Not sure what is so funny. Have you played in the high stakes leagues? FFPC, NFFC??
Thought it was pretty obvious, I thought it was funny too.

The same philosophy for any game applies to fantasy football. Your bankroll does not determine your level of skill - fish exist at every level.
I think Run it Up summed it up perfectly. I thought you'd understand too, pizza, based off of your other past, well thought out posts.

To say that someone is not in a "real" draft because they are not in one of the more publicized Leagues out there is a very pretentious thing to think. Especially on these boards - where tons of people lurk that might not play those leagues anymore but are still in highly competitive leagues amongst "old pros" or friends that are every bit as competitive (and high stakes, I might add) as others. In fact, oftentimes more competitive, since you know your opponents and they know you, in many long standing leauges.

It was just a crappy way to talk down to someone. His league is real to him, and that's what counts. You must have misunderstood what I was laughing at, pizza, because I doubt you'd side with the belittling tone in the quote.

I'll let it lie. Dont want the thread to get derailed.

 
munygon2 said:
I took Romo in round 9 once everyone starting to drafting backups, because if I didn't he would have been gone next time around. I'm happy with the result, hopefully he will at least replicate last year with fewer INT's.
Same Here. Got Freeman As A Backup.
 
Adam Harstad said:
Biabreakable said:
Adam Harstad said:
Ghost Rider said:
I used to almost always do this when I did redrafts, but it would sometimes backfire when you would get some idiot who would take his 2nd QB in the 7th round (which is the mark of someone who really doesn't know that they are doing). But I almost always waited till almost everyone had a QB before I would take mine.
I take a backup QB early all the time, often with great success. If nothing else, you screw over everyone who thought they were so smart because they were waiting, and you can usually trade your backup for something of value midway through the season when they're sick of trotting out Andrew Dalton every week. In several of the staff mocks I was taking Rodgers/Brees in the 3rd and Griffin in the 8th because they simply possessed far too much value. If the season plays out according to my expectations, the move is a major net positive for me. People underestimate just how much VBD a top-3 QB winds up producing, and I'll gladly roster two of them, even if for no other reason than to take one of them out of the pool for my competitors to use against me
It has been some years since I have seen anyone talking about this. But it might be interesting to revisit the idea of blocking.

What I mean by blocking is taking a player not because you need the player, but because the points that player will give your opponent is more negative value to you than drafting another player who would be a positive for you.

Especially at the QB position where things are somewhat more linear. Based on your projections you may see that there is one QB left available who will give a 4pt/game advantage over the rest of the QB available. You may be looking at a RB or WR that you need compared to this QB that you don't due to having already drafted a QB before. So in that sense you are not gaining any value for the QB pick to your total potential points scored, as you will likely be starting the QB you drafted before. However if all the other players remaining to you are only offering a 2pt/game advantage. You have to ask yourself if you might not be better off giving your opponents -4pts/game or if you should take the 2pt/game for your team. Which if you have not yet filled all of your positions/flex options is very relevant.

What I recall from the last time this was discussed at length most found that blocking was not a worthwhile strategy. Mainly because it is only giving you an advantage against one team, while picking a position of need gives you that advantage against the field. I am not sure I entirely agree with this counter argument. I think the idea is interesting and worth re-visiting.

Of course when Dalton scores as much as most of those top 12 QB you will be saying why didn't I wait longer. But that is another story. :)
You can't say that a backup QB has no value to your team, though. Last year, Matt Stafford was the 4th QB off the board. Eli Manning was 6th. Mike Vick was 8th. Philip Rivers was 11th. Would those teams have derived no value from drafting an early backup? Would the guy who took Tom Brady in 2008 have derived no value from drafting a backup early? You can't just look at it like "okay, so I took a QB early, so my backup will literally not produce any value for me whatsoever except as a bye-week fill-in".

I believe that Griffin is an 60+ VBD player this year. If I'm sitting in the 8th round, and my choice is between Griffin (who I view as an 60-VBD player) or a guy like Miles Austin (who might be a 10-20 VBD player), then I'm taking Griffin. Either I can trade him for much more than Miles Austin, or else I get nearly half as much VBD just from starting Griffin during my bye week as I'd get from starting Austin for the full year. Worst case scenario, there are just 30 60+ VBD players, and I take one of them out of the pool, and that has value, too.

I'm not saying that I'm going to draft my 11th ranked QB as the 11th QB off the board just because I think the dropoff is big. I'm saying that if we're in the 8th round, and my 5th ranked QB is still on the board, and the next-best QB ranks 12th, I'm absolutely taking my 5th ranked QB all day long.
I guess I was thinking more about using an earlier pick for a 2nd QB. Similar to as I have heard Bloom talk about taking Graham and Gronkowski.

Which to me would be leaving a hole at another position, even if the VBD was telling me the QB or TE is worth more than other positions at that point of the draft.

So my thought about how this could work, would be due to the points you are keeping your opponents from getting by blocking, adding value to the decision.

For me I have many teams running the ball more and likewise their passing attempts going down. The steady increase in passing attempts has been ever trending upward, which is causing the 4k QB to become pretty commonplace now.

I also think defenses will do a better job of defending the QB run and read option than they did last season. So some of the QB who had a lot of added value because of their rushing stats may not repeat those numbers.

What this ends up making my projections look like is a slowly declining curve where the spikes in value at the QB are not really there as you describe.

For example if Green Bay runs the ball more and is effective at the goal line then Aaron Rodgers may not meet the numbers people are projecting for him. It will not be necessary for Rodgers to throw as many TD.

There are scenarios for almost all of the QB to regress/progress back to an average with only a few at the very top and very bottom having much separation at all.

That is the way I have been looking at it anyways and when I can pick over 25 QB that I feel comfortable with.. I am not seeing a huge advantage in getting 2 of them unless it is start 2QB league and a required starter.

 
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pizzatyme said:
Hoss Style said:
ImTheScientist said:
Man of Zen said:
ImTheScientist said:
With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.

*ahem*

:lmao:
Not sure what is so funny. Have you played in the high stakes leagues? FFPC, NFFC??
Thought it was pretty obvious, I thought it was funny too.

The same philosophy for any game applies to fantasy football. Your bankroll does not determine your level of skill - fish exist at every level.
I think Run it Up summed it up perfectly. I thought you'd understand too, pizza, based off of your other past, well thought out posts.

To say that someone is not in a "real" draft because they are not in one of the more publicized Leagues out there is a very pretentious thing to think. Especially on these boards - where tons of people lurk that might not play those leagues anymore but are still in highly competitive leagues amongst "old pros" or friends that are every bit as competitive (and high stakes, I might add) as others. In fact, oftentimes more competitive, since you know your opponents and they know you, in many long standing leauges.

It was just a crappy way to talk down to someone. His league is real to him, and that's what counts. You must have misunderstood what I was laughing at, pizza, because I doubt you'd side with the belittling tone in the quote.

I'll let it lie. Dont want the thread to get derailed.
Three paragraphs is not letting it lie.

 
Usually successful, but it failed in one draft. Another owner backed up rg3 with Wilson before I had my starter. Hoping Vick and Dalton will make due.

 
Andrew74 said:
Run It Up said:
I do this in most leagues and have for a long time now - I'm a huge proponent of QBBCs; however in a few leagues this year Brady or Stafford slipped much later than they should have and I could no longer pass on them.

This year I've been targetting RG3, Eli or Romo as my QB1 and I won't take one until round 10. I've been targetting Dalton as my QB2, with my next two targets being Roethlisberger then Rivers.

Been avoiding Vick, Palmer, Schaub and Flacco.
I did this - took Romo round 8 then swung around a few rounds later and took Dalton before everyone else started their QB2 run.
Got Romo and Dalton also. 11th QB taken for Romo (almost had Stafford, but he went 10th just before my pick). Took Dalton a little earlier than I needed to, but looking at who I could get for my other positions and knowing they'd still be available after taking my 2nd QB, I went ahead. No need to take undo chances.

 
pizzatyme said:
Hoss Style said:
ImTheScientist said:
Man of Zen said:
ImTheScientist said:
With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.

*ahem*

:lmao:
Not sure what is so funny. Have you played in the high stakes leagues? FFPC, NFFC??
Thought it was pretty obvious, I thought it was funny too.

The same philosophy for any game applies to fantasy football. Your bankroll does not determine your level of skill - fish exist at every level.
I think Run it Up summed it up perfectly. I thought you'd understand too, pizza, based off of your other past, well thought out posts.

To say that someone is not in a "real" draft because they are not in one of the more publicized Leagues out there is a very pretentious thing to think. Especially on these boards - where tons of people lurk that might not play those leagues anymore but are still in highly competitive leagues amongst "old pros" or friends that are every bit as competitive (and high stakes, I might add) as others. In fact, oftentimes more competitive, since you know your opponents and they know you, in many long standing leauges.

It was just a crappy way to talk down to someone. His league is real to him, and that's what counts. You must have misunderstood what I was laughing at, pizza, because I doubt you'd side with the belittling tone in the quote.

I'll let it lie. Dont want the thread to get derailed.
I'm not trying to belittle someone's home league. There are some damn competitive home leagues out there. But I used to think the same thing about my very competitive home leagues. The problem is, I also found home leagues that were easy to dominate. Since I've stepped up to high stakes, I have a different perspective. That's why I asked my question. Until someone plays in the NFFC or FFPC events, they haven't the perspective to say all leagues are created equal.

For the first couple of years in high stakes, I got my ### handed to me. I still do in some formats and therefore have limited my participation to my "expertise". I welcome anyone to join the FFPC next year. I believe you will find that the more leagues you play there, the less chance of finding "dead money".

Look me up on the FFPC message boards as "Just Russ". I'd enjoy playing in some leagues with those new to "high states" (Some drafts are as low as $77). Then we could discuss if anyone's perspective changed. Either way, give it a try. :)

Sorry to derail the thread. Last time I'll be off topic here.

 
pizzatyme said:
Hoss Style said:
ImTheScientist said:
Man of Zen said:
ImTheScientist said:
With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.

*ahem*

:lmao:
Not sure what is so funny. Have you played in the high stakes leagues? FFPC, NFFC??
Thought it was pretty obvious, I thought it was funny too.

The same philosophy for any game applies to fantasy football. Your bankroll does not determine your level of skill - fish exist at every level.
I think Run it Up summed it up perfectly. I thought you'd understand too, pizza, based off of your other past, well thought out posts.

To say that someone is not in a "real" draft because they are not in one of the more publicized Leagues out there is a very pretentious thing to think. Especially on these boards - where tons of people lurk that might not play those leagues anymore but are still in highly competitive leagues amongst "old pros" or friends that are every bit as competitive (and high stakes, I might add) as others. In fact, oftentimes more competitive, since you know your opponents and they know you, in many long standing leauges.

It was just a crappy way to talk down to someone. His league is real to him, and that's what counts. You must have misunderstood what I was laughing at, pizza, because I doubt you'd side with the belittling tone in the quote.

I'll let it lie. Dont want the thread to get derailed.
I'm not trying to belittle someone's home league. There are some damn competitive home leagues out there. But I used to think the same thing about my very competitive home leagues. The problem is, I also found home leagues that were easy to dominate. Since I've stepped up to high stakes, I have a different perspective. That's why I asked my question. Until someone plays in the NFFC or FFPC events, they haven't the perspective to say all leagues are created equal.

For the first couple of years in high stakes, I got my ### handed to me. I still do in some formats and therefore have limited my participation to my "expertise". I welcome anyone to join the FFPC next year. I believe you will find that the more leagues you play there, the less chance of finding "dead money".

Look me up on the FFPC message boards as "Just Russ". I'd enjoy playing in some leagues with those new to "high states" (Some drafts are as low as $77). Then we could discuss if anyone's perspective changed. Either way, give it a try. :)

Sorry to derail the thread. Last time I'll be off topic here.
Less chance of dead money, true, but it's definitely there. Saw some really terrible drafting in FPC and I only did 3 drafts. Also was in a league last year where 2 teams pretty much abandoned their teams (1 was not even out of it by any means). Not really competitive. Haven't had that happen in my local league.

As for the original conversation, I'm more than content with taking Brees/Rodgers if they are there. Or Brady in the 5th/6th. For me, it's stupid not to. I say that because I think QBs are the easiest to predict. If I see Brady getting ~25/week and Kaepernick/Wilson/other QBBC guys in the 8th/9th averaging ~21/week, I love that "guaranteed" 4 pt advantage. Mostly because I either don't feel confident that the guy I'll draft in the 4th/5th/6th (say D.Richardson/Nicks/Torrey) will be 4 pts (or more) better than the RB/WR I'll get in the 8th/9th. Or, alternatively (on a more confident note), I think I can snag someone in 8/9 who can compare, or perhaps beat those 4th-6th RBs/WRs, and still have my 4 pt QB advantage.

With being said, I LOVE that the group think is letting QBs fall, it's a gift getting a Brees/Rodgers/Brady in a 6pt/TD league in the 4th or later. I hope this trend continues next year.

 
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Pretty much did this in a ppr redraft. Took Romo in the 7th and Vick in the 11th. Loaded up on RB's and WR's. Lots of good options @ QB this year. I'm actually fairly optimistic about Vick this season. He seems to be happy with chip kelly in town. I think Vick could end up being big value this season. As long as he doesnt start fumblin and trying to do too much with his feet.

 
I did this in 2010, 2011 and 2012.(did not draft a QB until round 8+)

2010 Started the season with Big Ben/cant remember....picked up Vick- finished highest points #1 seed. 1st round exit.

2011 Started the season with Big Ben/Bradford...traded MJD for Fitzpatrick early, finished #4 seed won the title with Tebow lol!

2012 Platooned Flacco and Ponder most of the year and was not able to land Russell Wilson/Kapernick off the WW. Could have taken Peyton Mannig in the 7th but took Payton Hillis instead thinking he(Manning) would fall till my next pick...then proceeded to miss out on Luck/Dalton/Freeman due to an unanticipated early run on back up QB's. Still finished #1seed, highest points...had I landed Wilson off the WW (or drafted him....thought about it but didn't pull the trigger) probably would have won the championship again...as it was my season ended with a first round exit.

This year I took Wilson in the 6th...I think this is the sweet spot, you can get high quality starters at RB & WR and still be solid at QB (instead of scraping the bottom of the barrel and hoping to land WW gold). I'm sick of the QBBC headaches and after looking back at those teams everyone of them probably would have been even better had I gone QB earlier. None of those teams finished so well because I waited longer then everyone for my QB...they were all strong teams because I hit on 1-2 late round RB/WR's and was able to mine WW gold to fill in holes throughout the year.

 
pizzatyme said:
Hoss Style said:
ImTheScientist said:
Man of Zen said:
ImTheScientist said:
With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.*ahem*

:lmao:
Not sure what is so funny. Have you played in the high stakes leagues? FFPC, NFFC??
Thought it was pretty obvious, I thought it was funny too.The same philosophy for any game applies to fantasy football. Your bankroll does not determine your level of skill - fish exist at every level.
I think Run it Up summed it up perfectly. I thought you'd understand too, pizza, based off of your other past, well thought out posts.To say that someone is not in a "real" draft because they are not in one of the more publicized Leagues out there is a very pretentious thing to think. Especially on these boards - where tons of people lurk that might not play those leagues anymore but are still in highly competitive leagues amongst "old pros" or friends that are every bit as competitive (and high stakes, I might add) as others. In fact, oftentimes more competitive, since you know your opponents and they know you, in many long standing leauges.

It was just a crappy way to talk down to someone. His league is real to him, and that's what counts. You must have misunderstood what I was laughing at, pizza, because I doubt you'd side with the belittling tone in the quote.

I'll let it lie. Dont want the thread to get derailed.
I'm not trying to belittle someone's home league. There are some damn competitive home leagues out there. But I used to think the same thing about my very competitive home leagues. The problem is, I also found home leagues that were easy to dominate. Since I've stepped up to high stakes, I have a different perspective. That's why I asked my question. Until someone plays in the NFFC or FFPC events, they haven't the perspective to say all leagues are created equal.For the first couple of years in high stakes, I got my ### handed to me. I still do in some formats and therefore have limited my participation to my "expertise". I welcome anyone to join the FFPC next year. I believe you will find that the more leagues you play there, the less chance of finding "dead money".

Look me up on the FFPC message boards as "Just Russ". I'd enjoy playing in some leagues with those new to "high states" (Some drafts are as low as $77). Then we could discuss if anyone's perspective changed. Either way, give it a try. :)

Sorry to derail the thread. Last time I'll be off topic here.
:goodposting:

Very well said.

 
pizzatyme said:
Hoss Style said:
ImTheScientist said:
Man of Zen said:
ImTheScientist said:
With everyone now adopting this a new shark move has evolved. Snag a top 3-5 guy in the 5th or 6th round.
Did three real drafts and probably about 200 mocks this preseason.Haven't seen a top 5 QB by ADP fall that far yet, so I question its sharkiness, but if you've got an inside line against your particular guys, by all means go for it.
I got Peyton Manning in the 5th of the fpc, Cam went in the 6th. I question your "real" drafts if you are not in the fpc, ffpc, or nffc. :shrug: local leagues versus playing with the big boys are very different.Fpc adp data http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13ffpcadp
I'm not sure I've ever used the "lmao" emoticon before. I think it's over used and should only saved for when people really say something silly.

*ahem*

:lmao:
Not sure what is so funny. Have you played in the high stakes leagues? FFPC, NFFC??
Thought it was pretty obvious, I thought it was funny too.

The same philosophy for any game applies to fantasy football. Your bankroll does not determine your level of skill - fish exist at every level.
I think Run it Up summed it up perfectly. I thought you'd understand too, pizza, based off of your other past, well thought out posts.

To say that someone is not in a "real" draft because they are not in one of the more publicized Leagues out there is a very pretentious thing to think. Especially on these boards - where tons of people lurk that might not play those leagues anymore but are still in highly competitive leagues amongst "old pros" or friends that are every bit as competitive (and high stakes, I might add) as others. In fact, oftentimes more competitive, since you know your opponents and they know you, in many long standing leauges.

It was just a crappy way to talk down to someone. His league is real to him, and that's what counts. You must have misunderstood what I was laughing at, pizza, because I doubt you'd side with the belittling tone in the quote.

I'll let it lie. Dont want the thread to get derailed.
I'm not trying to belittle someone's home league. There are some damn competitive home leagues out there. But I used to think the same thing about my very competitive home leagues. The problem is, I also found home leagues that were easy to dominate. Since I've stepped up to high stakes, I have a different perspective. That's why I asked my question. Until someone plays in the NFFC or FFPC events, they haven't the perspective to say all leagues are created equal.

For the first couple of years in high stakes, I got my ### handed to me. I still do in some formats and therefore have limited my participation to my "expertise". I welcome anyone to join the FFPC next year. I believe you will find that the more leagues you play there, the less chance of finding "dead money".

Look me up on the FFPC message boards as "Just Russ". I'd enjoy playing in some leagues with those new to "high states" (Some drafts are as low as $77). Then we could discuss if anyone's perspective changed. Either way, give it a try. :)

Sorry to derail the thread. Last time I'll be off topic here.
Less chance of dead money, true, but it's definitely there. Saw some really terrible drafting in FPC and I only did 3 drafts. Also was in a league last year where 2 teams pretty much abandoned their teams (1 was not even out of it by any means). Not really competitive. Haven't had that happen in my local league.

As for the original conversation, I'm more than content with taking Brees/Rodgers if they are there. Or Brady in the 5th/6th. For me, it's stupid not to. I say that because I think QBs are the easiest to predict. If I see Brady getting ~25/week and Kaepernick/Wilson/other QBBC guys in the 8th/9th averaging ~21/week, I love that "guaranteed" 4 pt advantage. Mostly because I either don't feel confident that the guy I'll draft in the 4th/5th/6th (say D.Richardson/Nicks/Torrey) will be 4 pts (or more) better than the RB/WR I'll get in the 8th/9th. Or, alternatively (on a more confident note), I think I can snag someone in 8/9 who can compare, or perhaps beat those 4th-6th RBs/WRs, and still have my 4 pt QB advantage.

With being said, I LOVE that the group think is letting QBs fall, it's a gift getting a Brees/Rodgers/Brady in a 6pt/TD league in the 4th or later. I hope this trend continues next year.
I don't consider the FPC high stakes. It has thousands of teams with owners who are jumping up in stakes from the $20 EF to the $350 for example. There are many horrible teams in that contest. It's a good place to win your league and take a crap shoot for something bigger for sure!

 
Done this twice; got Vick (9th), Dalton (13th) in one league. Got Stafford (7th) Cutler (16th) in another, Vick was QB13, Stafford QB12

 
With being said, I LOVE that the group think is letting QBs fall, it's a gift getting a Brees/Rodgers/Brady in a 6pt/TD league in the 4th or later. I hope this trend continues next year.
Smart move. And this is why it's so important not to get locked into your pre-draft strategy. In my experience it's not often that you have the rest of the league with the same mindset, but when it does happen, that's the time to switch up yours on the fly and adapt to what's happening. I'll take a good QB if the value is there (not ADP value - value according to the particular league I'm drafting in).

Fluidity is key.

 
I was in the 12 slot tonight in an FFPC $150 EF Draft Masters (best ball) and waited until the 10th rd to get my first QB. I drafted QBs in the 10, 11, and 12th rds.

Here's who I ended up with:

Eli, Alex Smith, Cutler

I'm good with that!

 
Do this pretty much every season. This year was no difference. Always finish in contention. I planned on following The Perfect Draft article and grabbing Vick after 12 QBs were gone, followed by another QB in the next round.

The league I am in is in its 16th season. Only 2 guys have been in it less than 7 years. 12-teamer. Start 1 QB, 6-points per td (over 50 yards you get bonus points), 9-points per rushing td (again, bonuses over 50 yards). 1-point for every 50 yards (bonus over 300, 400, 500). Completion % >60% earns points. INTs = -3 points.

Here's how the QBs went:

Round 1 - Brees, Rodgers, Manning

Round 2 - Brady

Round 3 - Stafford

Round 4 - Kaeperneck (drafted by the Stafford owner), Ryan

Round 5 - Luck, Romo

Round 6 - Wilson

Round 7 - Griffin (drafted by the Ryan owner), Then I took Newton (too much value, especially when you get 9-points per rushing TD and no Stewart around)

Round 8 - Dalton (was drafted as a #1 QB by a guy who waited too long)

Round 9 - I took Vick as my back up QB, just about the best 1-2 punch in this league scoring system and a very complimentary QBBC schedule), Eli Manning

Round 10 - Schaub (drafted by Stafford/Kaeperneck owner, it was his first season in this league and really took my QB's will win this league advice to heart ;) ), Cutler (was drafted as the last #1 QB by a guy who really waited way too long.)

Ended up with the following team:

QB - Newton, Vick, EJ Manuel

RB - J. Charles, G. Bernard, D. Woodhead, P. Thomas, Bryce Brown

WR - AJ Green, D. Thomas, Vincent Jackson, Vincent Brown

TE - J. Finley, D. Allen

PK - R. Bullock

DEF/ST - Bears, Ravens

Easy :moneybag: !

 
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Adam Harstad said:
Ghost Rider said:
I used to almost always do this when I did redrafts, but it would sometimes backfire when you would get some idiot who would take his 2nd QB in the 7th round (which is the mark of someone who really doesn't know that they are doing). But I almost always waited till almost everyone had a QB before I would take mine.
I take a backup QB early all the time, often with great success. If nothing else, you screw over everyone who thought they were so smart because they were waiting, and you can usually trade your backup for something of value midway through the season when they're sick of trotting out Andrew Dalton every week. In several of the staff mocks I was taking Rodgers/Brees in the 3rd and Griffin in the 8th because they simply possessed far too much value. If the season plays out according to my expectations, the move is a major net positive for me. People underestimate just how much VBD a top-3 QB winds up producing, and I'll gladly roster two of them, even if for no other reason than to take one of them out of the pool for my competitors to use against me.
That is fine, but it is still not something I would do 99% of the time. I would rather focus on making my team as good as possible, rather than possibly hurting another team and mine at the same time. Sure, you might prevent a single team out there from being better, by having that QB sit on your bench, but you also prevented yourself from getting a possible starter and/or mid-round pick who could be integral to a championship-winning team. You might be better than that team you prevented from getting a good QB at good value, but now you are probably not as good as the teams that didn't "waste" a 7th or 8th round pick on a backup. Plus, I almost never get a player with the intention of trading him.

In fact, there is a guy in a keeper league I did who spent around 20 dollars on RG3, Romo, Kaepernick and Luck EACH! He did manage to already trade one of them, but he is still using up nearly 60 of his 200 dollars on the QB position, and his WRs, suffice it to say, stink. Sure, he prevented others from getting deals, but he hurt his team more than anything. That is why I don't like the idea of taking a QB too early or spending too much on my backup QB in an auction.

 
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buck naked said:
Ghost Rider said:
I used to almost always do this when I did redrafts, but it would sometimes backfire when you would get some idiot who would take his 2nd QB in the 7th round (which is the mark of someone who really doesn't know that they are doing). But I almost always waited till almost everyone had a QB before I would take mine.
Maybe they know EXACTLY what they are doing. If the drafter sees you are building a strong team, why should you still get a good QB?

This happened to me in Las Vegas FFPC main event last year. RG3 was making his way down to me in the 10th round and I needed a QB. The team at 4 already had Newton, and he saw I needed a QB. He took him on purpose because I was building a powerhouse.

RG3 would have put me over the top and I would have won that league. Instead, I got stuck with Jay Cutler and other scraps and it killed me.
Okay, but taking your 2nd QB in the 10th round is VERY different than taking him in the 7th round, wouldn't you agree? I would do the same that guy did to you, in the 10th round, but not in the 7th. That is why I specifically said the 7th round in my OP.

 
2012 ADP:

1. Aaron Rodgers 3.1
2. Tom Brady 6.57
3. Drew Brees 7.53
4. Matthew Stafford 15.15
5. Cam Newton 15.32
6. Matt Ryan 40.56
7. Eli Manning 42.98
8. Michael Vick 47.33
9. Peyton Manning 54.9
10. Tony Romo 58.09
11. Philip Rivers 64.98
12. Robert Griffin III 84.31
13. Ben Roethlisberger 90.47
14. Jay Cutler 92.38
15. Matt Schaub 94.77
16. Andrew Luck 105.88
17. Joe Flacco 119.57
18. Josh Freeman 134.5
19. Andy Dalton 136.3
20. Carson Palmer 145.25
21. Ryan Fitzpatrick 145.75
22. Russell Wilson 147.36
23. Alex Smith 148.9
24. Jake Locker 152.84


Pick a guy in red, you make a run at the championship. Pick a guy in blue and you'll be scrambling to find a replacement on the waiver wire. Pick 2 guys in blue and your season is over.

 
This strategy works best in leagues where the QB is devalued (such as 8 team or 10 team leagues, or leagues with 4 points for TDs).
Agreed. And most definitely works in a 1QB:2RB setup (especially if there is a RB flex). Why anyone continues to be married to this dinosaur model is beyond me. It's for old, stubborn people or the young and naive. This thread is a perfect example of what's wrong with the hobby. Just play in a fantasy RB league. Don't act like you play fantasy football if you're strategizing how you can win your league with the worst player at the most important position in the game.

 
10 team league, 4 point per passing TD. 16 total roster spots. I waited.

RB: CJ Spiller, Matt Forte, Giovani Bernard, Shane Vareen, Ben Tate

WR: Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, T. Y. Hilton

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Jared Cook

K: Phil Dawson

Defense: Pittsburgh Steelers

And my quarterbacks are... Eli Manning, Andy Dalton, Matt Schaub

I took Eli and Dalton in rounds 9 and 12 respectively. I unfortunately forgot to take the early week matchups into account and Dalton has a fairly rough start of the season. Matt Schaub, on the otherhand, could be a very servicable QB for the first quarter of the season. Drafting three quarterbacks is admittedly too much. I took three because our league has a limit on season transactions, so while I could've just grabbed a QB off waivers, it's not advisable in this league this early on because you want to use each transaction wisely. So in hindsight, I would've passed on Dalton and just grabbed Schaub. I do think Dalton is an excellent streaming option, but his first few games are rough.

As I expected, most people drafted their backup QB before I took my starter. The biggest pause for me came at 8.4 where I had a choice of Andrew Luck or Shane Vareen. At that point, my RB's were Spiller, Forte, and Gio. Going into drafts, I tend to want atleast four RB's and four WR's before I take a quarterback. By round 8, I only had 3 of each position because I took Gronk in round 5. Luck was the last of the QB1's IMO, but I opted for Vareen. Luck went at 8.9.

For week 1, I'm starting Schaub.

 
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I used to be a big proponent of the "be the last one to take a QB" strategy, almost regardless of scoring format.

In 6-pt pass TD and similar higher-QB-scoring leagues, I don't do it any more, for the same reason I don't wait on WRs in PPR leagues any more: drafting the right combination of third-tier guys is only half the battle. The other, and more significant, half is guessing whom to start each week.

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd be willing to wager that in typically selected QBBC combos there exists no "magic bullet" weekly formula, whether based on your QBs' recent performance, the defenses they're facing, or anything else, that would consistently yield a top-6 finish at season-end (which means, on average, you're going to be giving up points at the position to your opponents). Beyond the math, there's the frustration factor at work: watching Eli go off when you've started Schaub one week and then vice versa next week makes you start second-guessing yourself, which leads to progressively worse (and sometimes panicked) decisions further down the line.

Now, it's different if I'm pairing one consistently average guy with one high-upside guy - there was a lot of opportunity to do that last year if you paired a Romo or Flacco with a rookie - but other than combos involving Vick (whom I consider overrated at his current ADP), I don't see a lot of potential ways to do that this year.

I want to wait on QB this year, yes, but because highly-valued QBs are falling further than they deserve to this year, not because I'm setting out to be the last one to grab a QB, and my plan will be for my backup QB to be just that - a backup.

 
I used to be a big proponent of the "be the last one to take a QB" strategy, almost regardless of scoring format.

In 6-pt pass TD and similar higher-QB-scoring leagues, I don't do it any more, for the same reason I don't wait on WRs in PPR leagues any more: drafting the right combination of third-tier guys is only half the battle. The other, and more significant, half is guessing whom to start each week.

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd be willing to wager that in typically selected QBBC combos there exists no "magic bullet" weekly formula, whether based on your QBs' recent performance, the defenses they're facing, or anything else, that would consistently yield a top-6 finish at season-end (which means, on average, you're going to be giving up points at the position to your opponents). Beyond the math, there's the frustration factor at work: watching Eli go off when you've started Schaub one week and then vice versa next week makes you start second-guessing yourself, which leads to progressively worse (and sometimes panicked) decisions further down the line.

Now, it's different if I'm pairing one consistently average guy with one high-upside guy - there was a lot of opportunity to do that last year if you paired a Romo or Flacco with a rookie - but other than combos involving Vick (whom I consider overrated at his current ADP), I don't see a lot of potential ways to do that this year.

I want to wait on QB this year, yes, but because highly-valued QBs are falling further than they deserve to this year, not because I'm setting out to be the last one to grab a QB, and my plan will be for my backup QB to be just that - a backup.
I think you are mistaking something here, Flacco has never had high upside. If this has ever been your strategy I could see why you have changed your tune.

 
I tried it yesterday in a 14 teams non-ppr league "hometown league where everybody tries to be serious", starting QB RB RB WR WR TE WR/TE, drafting from the 4th spot

I started RB-RB-Gronk, than started to stash WRs (Nicks, Decker, L.Moore, V.Brown) , a third RB (Vereen) and a second TE (Cook).

When I took the duo of Schaub+Pryor, 3-4 teams already had their QB backup. Guess I was "lucky" that non of this teams took Schaub. Didn't have to go Manuel or Cutler together with an already way too risky Pryor.

 
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2012 ADP:

1. Aaron Rodgers 3.1

2. Tom Brady 6.57

3. Drew Brees 7.53

4. Matthew Stafford 15.15

5. Cam Newton 15.32

6. Matt Ryan 40.56

7. Eli Manning 42.98

8. Michael Vick 47.33

9. Peyton Manning 54.9

10. Tony Romo 58.09

11. Philip Rivers 64.98

12. Robert Griffin III 84.31

13. Ben Roethlisberger 90.47

14. Jay Cutler 92.38

15. Matt Schaub 94.77

16. Andrew Luck 105.88

17. Joe Flacco 119.57

18. Josh Freeman 134.5

19. Andy Dalton 136.3

20. Carson Palmer 145.25

21. Ryan Fitzpatrick 145.75

22. Russell Wilson 147.36

23. Alex Smith 148.9

24. Jake Locker 152.84

Pick a guy in red, you make a run at the championship. Pick a guy in blue and you'll be scrambling to find a replacement on the waiver wire. Pick 2 guys in blue and your season is over.
Went with Wilson, very happy about it.

Right, not just anyone will do. In past 3 years I went Vick, Stafford, Griffin and those all went well. The only hiccup was Griffin, I should have traded him when he was sitting at no. 3/4 QB last year but was having too much fun watching the games.

Kind of curious about Cutler with Trestman this year but I don't think I have the intestinal fortitude to do that.

 
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Flacco, Bradford, Freeman.....you're in bad shape if you are rolling with one of these guys as your starting QB.

If you are going to wait, focus on Romo, Wilson, Vick......you want the QB who is like #10....not #15.

 
QB blocking might make sense if you are scheduled to play the blocked team week #1, then immediately trade that QB to the blocked team after week one for a position upgrade. If blocking results in a win ... well worth it IMO.

 
QB blocking is alive and well. A guy in my league drafted Rodgers and Brady, and fully expects a bidding war. And from the look of the rosters who went with the 10th round QB1 strategy, it should pay off. Someone will make a panic move. I never embraced this late round QB theory, preferring to play it safe taking my QB in rounds 4-6, which is the sweet spot for landing a decent QB, but still allowing you to build an impressive core at RB and WR.

 
I used to be a big proponent of the "be the last one to take a QB" strategy, almost regardless of scoring format.

In 6-pt pass TD and similar higher-QB-scoring leagues, I don't do it any more, for the same reason I don't wait on WRs in PPR leagues any more: drafting the right combination of third-tier guys is only half the battle. The other, and more significant, half is guessing whom to start each week.

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd be willing to wager that in typically selected QBBC combos there exists no "magic bullet" weekly formula, whether based on your QBs' recent performance, the defenses they're facing, or anything else, that would consistently yield a top-6 finish at season-end (which means, on average, you're going to be giving up points at the position to your opponents). Beyond the math, there's the frustration factor at work: watching Eli go off when you've started Schaub one week and then vice versa next week makes you start second-guessing yourself, which leads to progressively worse (and sometimes panicked) decisions further down the line.

Now, it's different if I'm pairing one consistently average guy with one high-upside guy - there was a lot of opportunity to do that last year if you paired a Romo or Flacco with a rookie - but other than combos involving Vick (whom I consider overrated at his current ADP), I don't see a lot of potential ways to do that this year.

I want to wait on QB this year, yes, but because highly-valued QBs are falling further than they deserve to this year, not because I'm setting out to be the last one to grab a QB, and my plan will be for my backup QB to be just that - a backup.
I think you are mistaking something here, Flacco has never had high upside. If this has ever been your strategy I could see why you have changed your tune.
There are some that say that when the Ravens changed offensive coordinators that Flacco's play was changed for the better. Perhaps he has not hit his ceiling yet but look at his play last year in the playoffs under Caldwell.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/2013/09/02/baltimore-ravens-quarterback-can-joe-flacco-be-better-in-2013/2755657/

 
If you want to double up on starting quality QBs for trade bait with the guys that wait on QB a great way to do it is by using consecutive picks on the turn. I have seen owners go into a frenzy multiple times when someone took a QB duo on consecutive picks. In one league this year an owner did a Luck/RG3 turn and one of the owners that was waiting on QB immediately offered the player he picked from the previous round for RG3.

 
Where is Bradford on your list or was he not rated that high in 2012?
Bradford had the #25 ADP last year (my list cut off just before him), and he ended up as the #16 fantasy QB. So while he certainly outperformed his ADP, he probably didn't win very many championships if he was your primary QB.

 
Now, imagine you are in an auction keeper league... :headsplode:

 

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