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QB strategy waiting until everyone else takes a QB, Has anyone else do (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Breesisdaman
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I couldn't possibly give Griffin more respect than to compare him to Vick and Cunningham, which is what I did. There are not any better running QB comparisons than this. Also I think Griffin is a more accomplished passer at this still early stage of his career than these QB were at the same stage of theirs. There is no one better that I could compare him to.
100 rushing attempts for QB is a lot. Cam Newton has run 126 then 127 times in his 1st 2 seasons. But Cam did not get hurt.
I would take the under on Griffin running the ball 100 times coming off of knee surgery. I think he is an accomplished enough passer that he does not need to put himself that much at risk for their offense to be effective. I am sure he will still run and they will use read option because Griffin ran it so well, I think he does the best reading portion of this of all the QBs who ran it last season. I just do not think Griffin will choose to run as often as he did last season. I also think defenses will be better prepared for him.
400 or 500 rushing yards is still outstanding for a QB. Even the best running QBs did not often run for more than this. The reason I think Griffin will only have 300-400 is because I expect the rushing attempts to be 50-80 not 90-120. I do have Griffin improving his passing yardage to somewhere around 3200-3500yds. A good QB without question. I feel like I am being very optimistic actually with only one season to base this off of.
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ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Drafted Peyton at 4.12 taking advantage of everyone passing on qbs. Thanks!
Man of Zen
Footballguy
Peyton was gone in round two in real leagues. 
Doesn't matter that you overpaid to be in that one, it's still a joke if you're getting Peyton at the 5th round wrap, and thus has nothing to do with the pros or cons of a strategy based on intelligent drafters making logical decisions.
Doesn't matter that you overpaid to be in that one, it's still a joke if you're getting Peyton at the 5th round wrap, and thus has nothing to do with the pros or cons of a strategy based on intelligent drafters making logical decisions.
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ImTheScientist
Footballguy
flapgreen
Footballguy
YOU ARE THE MAN!!!
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
You must not play in "real leagues" yahoo fantasy league guy. Check the ADP for the FPC...high stakes is where the big boys play.Peyton was gone in round two in real leagues.
Doesn't matter that you overpaid to be in that one, it's still a joke if you're getting Peyton at the 5th round wrap, and thus has nothing to do with the pros or cons of a strategy based on intelligent drafters making logical decisions.
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ImTheScientist
Footballguy
WilsonTheVolleyball
Footballguy
So far it's working out well for me. Since people in my league value quarterback much higher than I do, someone took Peyton in the late second round. Cam Newton went in the third round and as a result, Demaryius Thomas fell to me the late third. I'm not complaining at all about 28 points for a WR in a stardard league considering that'll likely give me a win this week.
Even if I were playing the guy who had Manning, I'd still very much like my chances. If I were, I'd be down in my league 46-28, Not a big gap when you consider the fact that Flacco, who looked mediocre at best tonight, scored 18 points in my league. That means had I started Flacco (I didn't), we'd actually be tied tonight. Unless you have Calvin Johnson as a reciever (he doesn't), it's going to be pretty difficult for a WR to match Demaryius' stat line tonight.
So yeah, so far I'm giddy, giddy, giddy.
Even if I were playing the guy who had Manning, I'd still very much like my chances. If I were, I'd be down in my league 46-28, Not a big gap when you consider the fact that Flacco, who looked mediocre at best tonight, scored 18 points in my league. That means had I started Flacco (I didn't), we'd actually be tied tonight. Unless you have Calvin Johnson as a reciever (he doesn't), it's going to be pretty difficult for a WR to match Demaryius' stat line tonight.
So yeah, so far I'm giddy, giddy, giddy.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
so if he got peyton in the late second--it means he had an early first round pick--which means he probably has a jamaal charles, adrian peterson (elite back) or possibly even a calvin johnson still to play-- and if your hypothetical flacco (of whom I think is ridiculous if you are calling 350 yards and 2 tds to be mediocre in regards to fantasy--I would bet my house that the typical below average fantasy qb does not average 350 yards and 2 td's in a game) and your best wr combined could only tie what his qb did---and you are calling this an argument that doesn't support having a quality qb? Are you in politics? lol
WilsonTheVolleyball
Footballguy
He picked up Arian Foster in the first round. No complaints there from me. But as I said in my initial post, he does not have Calvin Johnson.
My point is that, no matter how much you want to talk about value here, Peyton Manning had an historic night and that's what it took to justify taking him in the second round. How often do you really think Peyton Manning is going to toss 7+ TD's in a game this year? Considering that the last time it happened was over four decades ago, the chances of it happening again this year are pretty slim. Now how often do you think Damaryius is going to have 100+ yards and 2 TD's a game this season? Probably not many more, but I'd still wager that it's a more repeatable performance than Manning's.
Yes, I would still like my chances because there's a good chance that if someone reached that early on Peyton, they're obviously going to be hurting somewhere else, and low and behold this guy is rolling with Greg Jennings as WR2, Darren Sproles as his RB2, and Golden Tate as his Flex as a result. Naturally I would not feel this way if I had someone like Welker as my WR1, but I wouldn't have taken Welker over Manning because of what this is all about -- value.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
okay--but you also stated that your wr1 got 28 points--as if that was the standard. You also based your original post on a below average fantasy qb looking mediocre having 350 yards and 2 tds--so if you want to use those baselines as your argument--then you also have to look at what peyton did too. You can't just look at the stats in your favor and disregard them when they aren't in your favor. Face it--the night when a guy throws for 7 tds and almost 500 yards in a game is not the night to make an argument against drafting him in the late 2nd. In your case--you got demaryious--well done. How do you feel about the people who passed on matt ryans and tom brady's for montee ball? After seeing how peyton looked tonight--and seeing how anemic their running game looked--would you be surprised if he threw for 300+ yards and 2.5-3td's a game this year? I think that's very possible--and what do you think flacco will average this year--maybe 250 yards and 2tds per game? If you look at things this way-- I would absolutely use a late second round pick to gain a weekly 4-7 point advantage from that position every week. In fact--I would draft any player in any position they play in the 1st round if they would net me a 4-6 point a week advantage--- which is exactly why Jimmy graham goes in the first 3 rounds. Your argument only happens to work this week because you happened to own the guy the elite qb threw the ball too-- it's a convenient argument. If you want to see the value of an elite qb-- and you happened to use flacco as your baseline-- why don't you look at the point differential between peyton and flacco at the end of the fantasy season versus the point differential between his wr1 and demaryious. I'm not saying you are wrong-- I'm saying that tonight is not the night for you to be making your argument--you can time your argument a lot better than this.
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Hoss Style
Footballguy
Yeah! Just ask him! He'll tell you!ImTheScientist said:You must not play in "real leagues" yahoo fantasy league guy. Check the ADP for the FPC...high stakes is where the big boys play.Man of Zen said:Peyton was gone in round two in real leagues.
Doesn't matter that you overpaid to be in that one, it's still a joke if you're getting Peyton at the 5th round wrap, and thus has nothing to do with the pros or cons of a strategy based on intelligent drafters making logical decisions.
Over. And over. And over again.
...and over, and over, and over...
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Breesisdaman
Footballguy
Now if only every game Manning plays this year is a revenge game with that type of intensity . I highly doubt it.
I started Flacco and Julius Thomas but have one heck of a line up coming that should overtake even the manning team in points. Because I waited on my QB.
I started Flacco and Julius Thomas but have one heck of a line up coming that should overtake even the manning team in points. Because I waited on my QB.
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In one of my 4 point passing td league with no bonuses Manning has 51 points but in my 6 point passing td league with bonuses for long tds passes and a bonus at 300 yards Manning has 68 points. So waiting on a QB is a good strategy in some leagues may not be in another. I see the difference in some leagues being 100-150 points from the big 3 QBs to the #10-12 QBs.
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pollardsvision
Footballguy
Boy, this thread fell to hell real quick.
Hey guys, this is going to come as a shock, but Peyton Manning is pretty good. Sometimes, he'll throw up a monster game. If you drafted him, you knew he'd throw up some huge games. If you didn't, you knew you'd miss some games like this.
And of course, playing against him when this happens isn't a ton of fun.
Unless Peyton is going to throw 60 TDs this year, nothing has changed in the last 24 hours, but this has turned into the "OMG! This is my first time playing fantasy football and my 3rd round QB got a lot of points!"
Hey guys, this is going to come as a shock, but Peyton Manning is pretty good. Sometimes, he'll throw up a monster game. If you drafted him, you knew he'd throw up some huge games. If you didn't, you knew you'd miss some games like this.
And of course, playing against him when this happens isn't a ton of fun.
Unless Peyton is going to throw 60 TDs this year, nothing has changed in the last 24 hours, but this has turned into the "OMG! This is my first time playing fantasy football and my 3rd round QB got a lot of points!"
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
ponchsox
Footballguy
I do as well, don't get me wrong. I'm just saying someone like Kaepernick 5 rounds later can you give you an even stronger advantage at other positions.
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pollardsvision
Footballguy
It always comes down to picking the right guys.
Getting a top QB is a fine strategy, as long as you pick the right RB/WR's later on (and get the right QB, but part of the benefit of getting a top QB is that they are generally very predictable)
Forgoing a top QB is a fine strategy, as long as you get the right cheap one(s) and the right RB/WR's early.
For this year, unless the top QB came at a little discount, I think guys getting Romo late are set up nicely.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I'm well aware.Yeah! Just ask him! He'll tell you!ImTheScientist said:You must not play in "real leagues" yahoo fantasy league guy. Check the ADP for the FPC...high stakes is where the big boys play.Man of Zen said:Peyton was gone in round two in real leagues.
Doesn't matter that you overpaid to be in that one, it's still a joke if you're getting Peyton at the 5th round wrap, and thus has nothing to do with the pros or cons of a strategy based on intelligent drafters making logical decisions.
Over. And over. And over again.
...and over, and over, and over...
I'm in three leagues. I don't play with numbskulls who will accept leagues that skim. My three entry fees, combined, would buy ITS's trailer.
Peyton went mid-third in two, mid-second in one.
Aggregate stats from all over fantasy land show that on average, he was going in the late 20's.
If you're not playing in a league where the stats practically force QB's down to where the Aarons, Drews, and Peytons of the world start going in the 5th, and you still got Peyton that late, you're playing with fish. Pure and simple.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Man of Zen
Footballguy
And I suppose even more to the point, if the league DOES have scoring or a culture than means 4.12 is where Manning goes, then once again it's completely irrelevant to the point of the thread. Since you're not using independent thought or reasoning to capitalize on anything, just going with the flow.
In a league like that, "seizing the opportunity" would mean reaching for one of those QB's in the 3rd, knowing that you've got your pick of the cream of the crop before anybody had a chance to snake him from you, because you can still get killer value that way due to the built-in flaw you perceive in the culture as a whole.
"I picked straight off the ADP list," isn't compelling evidence for anything, except one more fish in the pond.
In a league like that, "seizing the opportunity" would mean reaching for one of those QB's in the 3rd, knowing that you've got your pick of the cream of the crop before anybody had a chance to snake him from you, because you can still get killer value that way due to the built-in flaw you perceive in the culture as a whole.
"I picked straight off the ADP list," isn't compelling evidence for anything, except one more fish in the pond.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I got Kap pretty cheap in my main league, but I do have this feeling that there are going to be some fantasy owners that end up disappointed by the young QB's.
I don't know what Kap/Wilson/RG3/Dalton/Luck will do this year, but it seems reasonable to me that a couple will regress a bit. Deep as QB is, there's an awful lot of faith being put into young guys that had a one really good season (or just a half of one).
They are all nice young QBs, but playing QB in the NFL shouldn't be this easy.
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ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
It all depends on how your draft falls. Manning obviously won't have a lot of games like this first one, but he is likely going to be putting up very good QB numbers most weeks. If you drafted him in the second round instead of your 2nd RB or one of the stud WRs then you very well may have sacrificed too much compared to waiting until later in the draft to get a QB, but if Manning was still there in the 4th round when all the top RBs and WRs have gone off the board, then it would make more sense to me to draft him there instead of picking up lower tier RB and WR...and then you maybe have 2 RBs and a WR in the first three rounds to go along with Manning.
Waiting for QB makes sense as long as everyone else isn't doing the same thing. At some point it just makes sense to draft a top QB instead of going with the lower tier RBs and WRs that remain on the board. In most 12-team drafts, I feel this comes in the 4th round.
Waiting for QB makes sense as long as everyone else isn't doing the same thing. At some point it just makes sense to draft a top QB instead of going with the lower tier RBs and WRs that remain on the board. In most 12-team drafts, I feel this comes in the 4th round.
ebsteelers
Footballguy
is it really that crazy to think a qb throws for 60 touchdown passes this season or in a season in the near future? 4 tds a game puts ya at 64... If Peyton even throws 2 or 3 the next few games. he will still be on target for that
with all the rule changes and making offenses more pass happy, and defense not being able to touch the offensive. I wont be surprised if it happens this year or next. It sure helps Peyton that he has no running game and 2 great pass catchers, and 2 good pass catchers.
jurb26
Footballguy
It's pretty simple. This is a thread about drafting QBs early. Manning was not the only QB drafted early and more than likely never drafted as the top QB. Just because he had a great game and his owners are more likely to win means little to the overall theme. If Manning owners are playing the owners of other, top drafted QBs, then those other guys who took QBs early loose. For example in the leagues I play in Manning owners are facing the following opposing QBs;
Rogers
Newton
Stafford
Dalton
2 of the 3 were drafted ahead of Manning. Stafford was drafted later, but not much. Dalton is the only one who was drafted significantly later.
Acting as though drafting a QB early as an overall premiss is a good idea simply because Manning had a huge day is a faulty way of looking at it. He is having that huge day and canceling out several other guys who also drafted QBs early.
Dez
Footballguy
You can't make the case that either "waiting on QB's" or "drafting QB's early" were good or bad strategies, based on the information currently available. However... depending on any given fantasy owner's research/gut feeling, drafting a QB in round 2 may not have been a bad idea at all, depending on that QB's ceiling. If you were genuinely convinced that a certain QB's ripe for one of those monster years that would separate him from the pack, then why shouldn't you draft him over a 2nd or 3rd tier RB, especially if you already picked a RB in the first round?
I've always been skeptical of these blanket rule-of-thumb draft edicts that are issued every preseason. At the end of the day it comes down to the individual player in question, and whether or not enough evidence exists to support your gut feeling on said player. I personally had Brees & Manning ranked a tier above the other QB's, and would've felt comfortable spending a 2nd round pick on either. I doubt Manning owners who spent a 2nd (or even a 1st) round pick on him are regretting it, especially if they're competent GM's who know how to build a balanced team.
I've always been skeptical of these blanket rule-of-thumb draft edicts that are issued every preseason. At the end of the day it comes down to the individual player in question, and whether or not enough evidence exists to support your gut feeling on said player. I personally had Brees & Manning ranked a tier above the other QB's, and would've felt comfortable spending a 2nd round pick on either. I doubt Manning owners who spent a 2nd (or even a 1st) round pick on him are regretting it, especially if they're competent GM's who know how to build a balanced team.
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