QB strategy waiting until everyone else takes a QB, Has anyone else do (1 Viewer)

[Run It Up]

I used to be a big proponent of the "be the last one to take a QB" strategy, almost regardless of scoring format.

In 6-pt pass TD and similar higher-QB-scoring leagues, I don't do it any more, for the same reason I don't wait on WRs in PPR leagues any more: drafting the right combination of third-tier guys is only half the battle. The other, and more significant, half is guessing whom to start each week.

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd be willing to wager that in typically selected QBBC combos there exists no "magic bullet" weekly formula, whether based on your QBs' recent performance, the defenses they're facing, or anything else, that would consistently yield a top-6 finish at season-end (which means, on average, you're going to be giving up points at the position to your opponents). Beyond the math, there's the frustration factor at work: watching Eli go off when you've started Schaub one week and then vice versa next week makes you start second-guessing yourself, which leads to progressively worse (and sometimes panicked) decisions further down the line.

Now, it's different if I'm pairing one consistently average guy with one high-upside guy - there was a lot of opportunity to do that last year if you paired a Romo or Flacco with a rookie - but other than combos involving Vick (whom I consider overrated at his current ADP), I don't see a lot of potential ways to do that this year.

I want to wait on QB this year, yes, but because highly-valued QBs are falling further than they deserve to this year, not because I'm setting out to be the last one to grab a QB, and my plan will be for my backup QB to be just that - a backup.

I think you are mistaking something here, Flacco has never had high upside. If this has ever been your strategy I could see why you have changed your tune.

There are some that say that when the Ravens changed offensive coordinators that Flacco's play was changed for the better. Perhaps he has not hit his ceiling yet but look at his play last year in the playoffs under Caldwell.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/2013/09/02/baltimore-ravens-quarterback-can-joe-flacco-be-better-in-2013/2755657/

And for an accurate view of his ability, just look at his career numbers. Somewhere in the QB13-18 range with little to no upside.

 

[WilsonTheVolleyball]

Here's the thing you must remember if you do not have a true QB1: it's about maximizing your starting quarterback spot, not so much the quarterbacks on your roster at the moment. You absolutely have to think of the waiver wire as your bench.

That being said, we may as well discuss week 1 options for those of us who do not have a true QB1. My personal choices:

Michael Vick @ Washington

Depending on your league, Vick might not be considered a late round quarterback. In mine, he went in round 11 (not to me unfortunately). No need to bore you with the offensive and defensive facts here. Just know that as of the time of this post, Vegas has that game with the highest point total of the week. If you got Vick, start him.

Ben Roethlisberger versus Tennessee

Pittsburgh knows what they got in their current running back mess. They'll probably ask Ben to air it out. Sneaky play here.

Alex Smith @ Jacksonville

Andy Reid offense. Jaguars defense. The only thing that would concern me is the fact that Alex Smith is the king of checkdowns. But every quarterback at this point has glaring issues. This matchup isn't going to offer you any upside, but it might be the safest of the week.

Matt Schaub @ San Diego

San Diego is likely going to be pretty bad this season. While I personally don't like starting quarterbacks on the road unless it's a garaunteed bottom five pass defense, this matchup seems right since we honestly don't know who is a bottom five pass defense at the moment. Again, not another high-upside matchup, but a safe one.

It's also a matter of how you think your opponent will do. Without taking into account his starting quarterback (which for the record is either going to be Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck), my roster seemingly dominates his. For that reason, I'm going to play it safe and roll with Schaub.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I used to be a big proponent of the "be the last one to take a QB" strategy, almost regardless of scoring format.

In 6-pt pass TD and similar higher-QB-scoring leagues, I don't do it any more, for the same reason I don't wait on WRs in PPR leagues any more: drafting the right combination of third-tier guys is only half the battle. The other, and more significant, half is guessing whom to start each week.

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd be willing to wager that in typically selected QBBC combos there exists no "magic bullet" weekly formula, whether based on your QBs' recent performance, the defenses they're facing, or anything else, that would consistently yield a top-6 finish at season-end (which means, on average, you're going to be giving up points at the position to your opponents). Beyond the math, there's the frustration factor at work: watching Eli go off when you've started Schaub one week and then vice versa next week makes you start second-guessing yourself, which leads to progressively worse (and sometimes panicked) decisions further down the line.

Now, it's different if I'm pairing one consistently average guy with one high-upside guy - there was a lot of opportunity to do that last year if you paired a Romo or Flacco with a rookie - but other than combos involving Vick (whom I consider overrated at his current ADP), I don't see a lot of potential ways to do that this year.

I want to wait on QB this year, yes, but because highly-valued QBs are falling further than they deserve to this year, not because I'm setting out to be the last one to grab a QB, and my plan will be for my backup QB to be just that - a backup.

I think you are mistaking something here, Flacco has never had high upside. If this has ever been your strategy I could see why you have changed your tune.

No, read what I wrote again. Flacco would be the "consistently average guy" here while someone like Luck or RG3 would have been the "high-upside guy". Another example, in 2011 I went with a combo of Big Ben and (rookie) Cam Newton - and won my league because of it.

Pairing two known replacement-level quantities as a QBBC, by contrast, has never made sense to me. Not only are you unlikely to catch lightning in a bottle, you cost yourself points every week you make a wrong decision about your starter.

With Flacco and RG3 last year, or Big Ben and Cam the year before, your "upside guy" might have caught fire or might have busted, but either way you weren't likely to have to agonize about whom to start week in and week out.

 

[Bobcat10]

Waited last night from the #2 spot in a 12 team league, 3 QB required, all TDs 7pts.

I got the 12th QB off the board at 8.11 -- Russell Wilson.

Kaepernick was taken 6.10 as the 11th QB or I would have taken him at 6.11. I contemplated taking Vick at 9.02, but decided to pass (for Finley). Eli went 9.11, Vick 9.12, and Flacco 10.06.

Then I took Dalton at 10.11 (same bye as Wilson) and Big Ben at 12.11.

Very pleased after going this route.

 

[Run It Up]

I used to be a big proponent of the "be the last one to take a QB" strategy, almost regardless of scoring format.

In 6-pt pass TD and similar higher-QB-scoring leagues, I don't do it any more, for the same reason I don't wait on WRs in PPR leagues any more: drafting the right combination of third-tier guys is only half the battle. The other, and more significant, half is guessing whom to start each week.

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd be willing to wager that in typically selected QBBC combos there exists no "magic bullet" weekly formula, whether based on your QBs' recent performance, the defenses they're facing, or anything else, that would consistently yield a top-6 finish at season-end (which means, on average, you're going to be giving up points at the position to your opponents). Beyond the math, there's the frustration factor at work: watching Eli go off when you've started Schaub one week and then vice versa next week makes you start second-guessing yourself, which leads to progressively worse (and sometimes panicked) decisions further down the line.

Now, it's different if I'm pairing one consistently average guy with one high-upside guy - there was a lot of opportunity to do that last year if you paired a Romo or Flacco with a rookie - but other than combos involving Vick (whom I consider overrated at his current ADP), I don't see a lot of potential ways to do that this year.

I want to wait on QB this year, yes, but because highly-valued QBs are falling further than they deserve to this year, not because I'm setting out to be the last one to grab a QB, and my plan will be for my backup QB to be just that - a backup.

I think you are mistaking something here, Flacco has never had high upside. If this has ever been your strategy I could see why you have changed your tune.

No, read what I wrote again. Flacco would be the "consistently average guy" here while someone like Luck or RG3 would have been the "high-upside guy". Another example, in 2011 I went with a combo of Big Ben and (rookie) Cam Newton - and won my league because of it.

Pairing two known replacement-level quantities as a QBBC, by contrast, has never made sense to me. Not only are you unlikely to catch lightning in a bottle, you cost yourself points every week you make a wrong decision about your starter.

With Flacco and RG3 last year, or Big Ben and Cam the year before, your "upside guy" might have caught fire or might have busted, but either way you weren't likely to have to agonize about whom to start week in and week out.

I did missread it, that being said I still completely disagree with your stance. I aim for a QBBC in pretty much every draft and only abandon the idea when a QB that shouldnt slip several rounds does.

You're QBBC shouldn't be comprised of a middling compiler and a boom/bust guy, this sets you up for exactly what you say you're trying to avoid. If you take two QBs that are capable of throwing for 4k but are rated in the QB10-15 makes infinitely much more sense to me, more than likely one of them will have a good year. Guys like Eli and Ben.

 

[shadyridr]

QB blocking might make sense if you are scheduled to play the blocked team week #1, then immediately trade that QB to the blocked team after week one for a position upgrade. If blocking results in a win ... well worth it IMO.

This is exactly what I did

 

[habsfan]

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd be willing to wager that in typically selected QBBC combos there exists no "magic bullet" weekly formula, whether based on your QBs' recent performance, the defenses they're facing, or anything else, that would consistently yield a top-6 finish at season-end (which means, on average, you're going to be giving up points at the position to your opponents). Beyond the math, there's the frustration factor at work: watching Eli go off when you've started Schaub one week and then vice versa next week makes you start second-guessing yourself, which leads to progressively worse (and sometimes panicked) decisions further down the line.

This doesn't get talked about much. I think sometimes it's just assumed that people will be able to pick the right guy week to week often enough in their QBBC but I think that's a dangerous assumption. Those typical QBBC candidates can put up some pretty dismal fantasy weeks and if you put a string of those together, you can be in big trouble. It's not an argument against the strategy as much as it is some "fine print" that people need to read.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

You're QBBC shouldn't be comprised of a middling compiler and a boom/bust guy, this sets you up for exactly what you say you're trying to avoid. If you take two QBs that are capable of throwing for 4k but are rated in the QB10-15 makes infinitely much more sense to me, more than likely one of them will have a good year. Guys like Eli and Ben.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this, I guess. Because the only time I want two completely middle-of-the-pack guys forming my QBBC is when I'm in a best-ball league. Otherwise it's been my experience that I simply leave too many points on the bench by guessing wrong when trying to play matchups each week.

I'd much rather take a guy at QB9 who I have as QB6-7 on my board and back him up with the usual warm body than play the season-long guessing game that comes with drafting QB's 12 and 15 or 13 and 14.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Maybe they know EXACTLY what they are doing. If the drafter sees you are building a strong team, why should you still get a good QB? This happened to me in Las Vegas FFPC main event last year. RG3 was making his way down to me in the 10th round and I needed a QB. The team at 4 already had Newton, and he saw I needed a QB. He took him on purpose because I was building a powerhouse.

RG3 would have put me over the top and I would have won that league. Instead, I got stuck with Jay Cutler and other scraps and it killed me.

I've seen just as many scenarios where owners tried to get cute and #### block teams at a position where it totally blew up in their face.

How'd the guy who drafted Griffin with Newton end up?

I bet he didn't win either. I don't understand the strategy of hurting yourself to hurt another team, when 10 other teams end up profiting from this move.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd be willing to wager that in typically selected QBBC combos there exists no "magic bullet" weekly formula, whether based on your QBs' recent performance, the defenses they're facing, or anything else, that would consistently yield a top-6 finish at season-end (which means, on average, you're going to be giving up points at the position to your opponents). Beyond the math, there's the frustration factor at work: watching Eli go off when you've started Schaub one week and then vice versa next week makes you start second-guessing yourself, which leads to progressively worse (and sometimes panicked) decisions further down the line.

This doesn't get talked about much. I think sometimes it's just assumed that people will be able to pick the right guy week to week often enough in their QBBC but I think that's a dangerous assumption. Those typical QBBC candidates can put up some pretty dismal fantasy weeks and if you put a string of those together, you can be in big trouble. It's not an argument against the strategy as much as it is some "fine print" that people need to read.

Agreed. I usually like to get a QB in the 6-10 range. I hate going with QBBC, as I drive myself nuts every week with deciding which one to start. I'd rather have a no-brainer starter, which I have in every league I am in this year (except the one where I have Eli and Russell Wilson; that will be a weekly "drive myself nuts" situation).

 

[Breesisdaman]

I used to be a big proponent of the "be the last one to take a QB" strategy, almost regardless of scoring format.

In 6-pt pass TD and similar higher-QB-scoring leagues, I don't do it any more, for the same reason I don't wait on WRs in PPR leagues any more: drafting the right combination of third-tier guys is only half the battle. The other, and more significant, half is guessing whom to start each week.

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd be willing to wager that in typically selected QBBC combos there exists no "magic bullet" weekly formula, whether based on your QBs' recent performance, the defenses they're facing, or anything else, that would consistently yield a top-6 finish at season-end (which means, on average, you're going to be giving up points at the position to your opponents). Beyond the math, there's the frustration factor at work: watching Eli go off when you've started Schaub one week and then vice versa next week makes you start second-guessing yourself, which leads to progressively worse (and sometimes panicked) decisions further down the line.

Now, it's different if I'm pairing one consistently average guy with one high-upside guy - there was a lot of opportunity to do that last year if you paired a Romo or Flacco with a rookie - but other than combos involving Vick (whom I consider overrated at his current ADP), I don't see a lot of potential ways to do that this year.

I want to wait on QB this year, yes, but because highly-valued QBs are falling further than they deserve to this year, not because I'm setting out to be the last one to grab a QB, and my plan will be for my backup QB to be just that - a backup.

I think you are mistaking something here, Flacco has never had high upside. If this has ever been your strategy I could see why you have changed your tune.

There are some that say that when the Ravens changed offensive coordinators that Flacco's play was changed for the better. Perhaps he has not hit his ceiling yet but look at his play last year in the playoffs under Caldwell.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/2013/09/02/baltimore-ravens-quarterback-can-joe-flacco-be-better-in-2013/2755657/

And for an accurate view of his ability, just look at his career numbers. Somewhere in the QB13-18 range with little to no upside.

I dont think its that cut and dry, Maybe if he had been playing under the same system he was using in the playoffs for that entire length of time , then you would have an accurate view of his abilities.

 

[ebsteelers]

Being successful at Fantasy Football is hard enough tthe way it is between scanning the wire, making sure everyone is good to go, then if your doing a qb by committee you gotta figure out do i wanna start dalton, rivers, or bradford and guess right each week for 16 weeks.

 

[KellysHeroes]

2012 ADP:

1. Aaron Rodgers 3.1

2. Tom Brady 6.57

3. Drew Brees 7.53

4. Matthew Stafford 15.15

5. Cam Newton 15.32

6. Matt Ryan 40.56

7. Eli Manning 42.98

8. Michael Vick 47.33

9. Peyton Manning 54.9

10. Tony Romo 58.09

11. Philip Rivers 64.98

12. Robert Griffin III 84.31

13. Ben Roethlisberger 90.47

14. Jay Cutler 92.38

15. Matt Schaub 94.77

16. Andrew Luck 105.88

17. Joe Flacco 119.57

18. Josh Freeman 134.5

19. Andy Dalton 136.3

20. Carson Palmer 145.25

21. Ryan Fitzpatrick 145.75

22. Russell Wilson 147.36

23. Alex Smith 148.9

24. Jake Locker 152.84

Pick a guy in red, you make a run at the championship. Pick a guy in blue and you'll be scrambling to find a replacement on the waiver wire. Pick 2 guys in blue and your season is over.

Vick? he didn't have such a good 2012

 

[Run It Up]

I used to be a big proponent of the "be the last one to take a QB" strategy, almost regardless of scoring format.

In 6-pt pass TD and similar higher-QB-scoring leagues, I don't do it any more, for the same reason I don't wait on WRs in PPR leagues any more: drafting the right combination of third-tier guys is only half the battle. The other, and more significant, half is guessing whom to start each week.

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd be willing to wager that in typically selected QBBC combos there exists no "magic bullet" weekly formula, whether based on your QBs' recent performance, the defenses they're facing, or anything else, that would consistently yield a top-6 finish at season-end (which means, on average, you're going to be giving up points at the position to your opponents). Beyond the math, there's the frustration factor at work: watching Eli go off when you've started Schaub one week and then vice versa next week makes you start second-guessing yourself, which leads to progressively worse (and sometimes panicked) decisions further down the line.

Now, it's different if I'm pairing one consistently average guy with one high-upside guy - there was a lot of opportunity to do that last year if you paired a Romo or Flacco with a rookie - but other than combos involving Vick (whom I consider overrated at his current ADP), I don't see a lot of potential ways to do that this year.

I want to wait on QB this year, yes, but because highly-valued QBs are falling further than they deserve to this year, not because I'm setting out to be the last one to grab a QB, and my plan will be for my backup QB to be just that - a backup.

I think you are mistaking something here, Flacco has never had high upside. If this has ever been your strategy I could see why you have changed your tune.

There are some that say that when the Ravens changed offensive coordinators that Flacco's play was changed for the better. Perhaps he has not hit his ceiling yet but look at his play last year in the playoffs under Caldwell.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/2013/09/02/baltimore-ravens-quarterback-can-joe-flacco-be-better-in-2013/2755657/

And for an accurate view of his ability, just look at his career numbers. Somewhere in the QB13-18 range with little to no upside.

I dont think its that cut and dry, Maybe if he had been playing under the same system he was using in the playoffs for that entire length of time , then you would have an accurate view of his abilities.

And maybe if we extrapolated his best game ever over his entire career... where does it end?

 

[Breesisdaman]

Being successful at Fantasy Football is hard enough tthe way it is between scanning the wire, making sure everyone is good to go, then if your doing a qb by committee you gotta figure out do i wanna start dalton, rivers, or bradford and guess right each week for 16 weeks.

True but then again you have RB's covered, WR's Covered, TE's covered pretty much every thing else covered. If Reggie Bush is playing The Steelers, I go with Chris Johnson as my Flex running against the Saints etc. etc.. Thats a nice luxury to have and points between the very top QB's and the Bradfords of the QB world are not tremendous enough to offset that advantage IMO. Waiting on QB allowed me to stockpile talent. At the very worst I trade a WR for a QB from the guy that drafted Cam Newton and Mathew Stafford.

 

[rick6668]

I usually try this strategy and it works pretty well for me, but I'm always ready to change it up if value falls.

10 teamer - Luck in the 7th as the 12th QB off the board, followed it back up with Romo in the 8th. Very happy with these 2.

12 teamer - Romo in the 7th as the 12th QB off the board RGIII went right before this pick as someone's QB2, Roethisberger in the 13th.

 

[Ebaker5]

Done it in both my drafts and ende up with Luck both times. Can't complain.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

I planned on Romo - and waited a little too long - ended up with a Wilson/Vick combo that will likely drive me nuts. I love the wait approach ...just not when it works out the way I want.

Don't get me wrong - this could work out, but as long as Vick is healthy ...I will probably start him.

 

[pollardsvision]

Maybe my memory is failing, but has there ever been a QB class this deep?

Romo is the 12th QB off the board. He's coming off a 4900 yard season and his lowest yardage total over a full season as a starter(4 of them) is 4184.

I have a feeling a couple of the young'ens will end up disappointing, but that's pretty loaded if you can be the last to grab a starter and still Romo.

 

[Cyclones]

That's generally my strategy, and it generally backfires because my league awards 6 pts for all TDs/1 pt per 20 yards passing/double points beyond 300. In the past I have made it a point to go RB or WR in the first 7 rounds then pick up a QB. I've had a bit of success with this (Eli a few years ago, Rivers ~4 years ago) but haven't gotten to the Super Bowl in my league. This year I picked 3rd and nearly went Brees but took Charles instead, and somehow Rodgers fell to 2.18 so I snatched him up. I'm fed up with watching guys with stud QBs outscore me by 20 pts at the position.

For 4 pt TD leagues, I'd still wait though.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I've waited in all 3 of my drafts.

12 team start 2 QB. Was last team to get a QB, but 3rd team to have 2 QBs.

Romo + Luck (4.12/5.01)

12 team. 11th team with QB.

Griffin III. (5.04)

16 team. Last team with a QB, #18 & #21 selected.

Dalton & Schaub. (effectively 8.09 & 9.08 in a 12 team format)

 

[bagger]

If you consider the depth at QB would you wait until you had Joe Flacco or Sam Bradford if it meant loading up on talent elsewhere on your team. Have you used this strategy to good success?

yes, I got Vick and Cutler. Very happy with my WR talent and depth, got a stud TE and two top flight RBs.For me, even if Vick only plays 10 games if he can give me top 10 QB stats on ppg basis I am way ahead of the curve.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I used to almost always do this when I did redrafts, but it would sometimes backfire when you would get some idiot who would take his 2nd QB in the 7th round (which is the mark of someone who really doesn't know that they are doing). But I almost always waited till almost everyone had a QB before I would take mine.

Maybe they know EXACTLY what they are doing. If the drafter sees you are building a strong team, why should you still get a good QB?

This happened to me in Las Vegas FFPC main event last year. RG3 was making his way down to me in the 10th round and I needed a QB. The team at 4 already had Newton, and he saw I needed a QB. He took him on purpose because I was building a powerhouse.

RG3 would have put me over the top and I would have won that league. Instead, I got stuck with Jay Cutler and other scraps and it killed me.

Okay, but taking your 2nd QB in the 10th round is VERY different than taking him in the 7th round, wouldn't you agree? I would do the same that guy did to you, in the 10th round, but not in the 7th. That is why I specifically said the 7th round in my OP.

The quality difference between the non-QB talent in the 7th and in the 10th really isn't that great.

 

[Biabreakable]

The quality difference between the non-QB talent in the 7th and in the 10th really isn't that great.

Depends on your projections.

MFL PPR ADP for drafts after Aug 25-

61. 6.01 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 60.67 1 339 1272
62. 6.02 Luck, Andrew IND QB 61.19 1 143 1229
63. 6.03 Wallace, Mike MIA WR 62.55 9 150 1266
64. 6.04 Ball, Montee DEN RB 62.61 1 208 1272
65. 6.05 Griffin III, Robert WAS QB 63.58 1 136 1226
66. 6.06 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 65.65 9 115 1265
67. 6.07 Smith, Steve CAR WR 66.46 22 136 1263
68. 6.08 Romo, Tony DAL QB 70.93 3 181 1242
69. 6.09 Richardson, Daryl STL RB 71.11 4 210 1262
70. 6.10 Jones, James GBP WR 71.17 12 183 1260
71. 6.11 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 72.42 7 176 1264
72. 6.12 Wilson, Russell SEA QB 73.19 1 201 1243

73. 7.01 Vereen, Shane NEP RB 75.50 6 204 1258
74. 7.02 Bradshaw, Ahmad IND RB 77.13 13 267 1258
75. 7.03 Austin, Tavon STL WR 78.43 1 207 1267
76. 7.04 Finley, Jermichael GBP TE 79.14 21 229 1257
77. 7.05 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR 81.67 16 177 1258
78. 7.06 Ivory, Chris NYJ RB 81.68 9 234 1259
79. 7.07 Austin, Miles DAL WR 82.19 10 184 1262
80. 7.08 Jennings, Greg MIN WR 83.76 8 177 1256
81. 7.09 Johnson, Stevie BUF WR 83.91 25 185 1257
82. 7.10 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 85.45 10 268 1264
83. 7.11 Boldin, Anquan SFO WR 85.80 17 193 1258
84. 7.12 Mendenhall, Rashard ARI RB 86.47 3 280 1254

85. 8.01 Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 88.59 5 184 1191
86. 8.02 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB 89.74 5 283 1261
87. 8.03 Olsen, Greg CAR TE 89.93 20 275 1248
88. 8.04 Gordon, Josh CLE WR 90.83 18 190 1249
89. 8.05 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 92.62 11 188 1241
90. 8.06 Williams, Mike TBB WR 94.34 15 216 1252
91. 8.07 Tate, Ben HOU RB 95.28 7 371 1252
92. 8.08 Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB 95.40 11 231 1252
93. 8.09 Ingram, Mark NOS RB 97.07 10 239 1248
94. 8.10 49ers, San Francisco SFO Def 97.85 26 193 1188
95. 8.11 Cook, Jared STL TE 99.85 8 350 1233
96. 8.12 Britt, Kenny TEN WR 99.92 16 198 1246

97. 9.01 Moore, Lance NOS WR 100.09 20 219 1245
98. 9.02 Manning, Eli NYG QB 102.07 9 222 1230
99. 9.03 Vick, Michael PHI QB 102.96 3 249 1238
100. 9.04 Gates, Antonio SDC TE 103.11 9 309 1242
101. 9.05 Daniels, Owen HOU TE 103.97 1 249 1226
102. 9.06 Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR 104.78 6 369 1213
103. 9.07 Givens, Chris STL WR 107.31 32 248 1215
104. 9.08 Bears, Chicago CHI Def 109.60 13 206 1178
105. 9.09 Tate, Golden SEA WR 110.52 8 232 1237
106. 9.10 Blackmon, Justin JAC WR 112.96 14 249 1213
107. 9.11 Texans, Houston HOU Def 113.02 26 207 1177
108. 9.12 Cameron, Jordan CLE TE 113.59 15 247 1196

109. 10.01 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR 113.98 7 242 1211
110. 10.02 Dalton, Andy CIN QB 114.28 14 215 1216
111. 10.03 Floyd, Michael ARI WR 116.38 18 256 1192
112. 10.04 Brown, Vincent SDC WR 116.68 37 288 1197
113. 10.05 Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR 118.02 14 260 1193
114. 10.06 Brown, Andre NYG RB 120.17 36 358 1095
115. 10.07 Rice, Sidney SEA WR 120.36 21 309 1205
116. 10.08 Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 122.61 3 313 1156
117. 10.09 Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB 122.72 12 264 1172
118. 10.10 Brown, Bryce PHI RB 123.94 19 267 1180
119. 10.11 Ballard, Vick IND RB 124.77 26 329 1178
120. 10.12 Pierce, Bernard BAL RB 125.18 7 323 1175

According to this Dalton, Vick and Eli are the only QB being drafted rounds 7-10.

I included the 6th round because some of those QB could fall into the 7th maybe. Which is what I think you are talking about here? That if one of those falls then you would consider taking one of them as your 2nd QB instead of the other positions. Correct?

That would be drafting value based on ADP. If your projections justify that I can see it, but you would need to do it in the 7th round at latest I think since all of those, Luck, RG3, Romo, Wilson do all have a 6th round ADP.

If you already have a QB in the 1st 6 rounds, that leaves 5 picks that could have been used on RB,WR,TE. So in a start 1/2/2/1 you would have a starter for each position by then. If you start 3WR you would not. You would be taking a QB round 7 instead of a starter. You likely also would want to have 3RB before round 7 I think and if you don't you should be looking at them. That means another important semi-starter you would be passing to get this 2nd QB.

I am trying to see how this could be good.

 

[DarkManX]

I did this in my last draft of the year. 10 team league, start 1 QB, passing touchdowns worth 4 and had the 9th spot in the draft. 10 quarterbacks were taken by the 6th round, including the guy on the turn after me taking Brees, followed by Peyton with his first 2 picks. Apparently it was to "trade" but I have yet to see any offers.

Myself I went RB, RB, RB and was hoping to land Romo in the 7th. He lasted til the 7th but was taken the pick directly before me. Knowing my opponent who was drafting after me had 2 QBs already I took a WR and Vick with my next pick after that in the 8th. In the 9th I took Eli Manning and to sure things up, ended up with Dalton in the 14th round.

Not an ideal situation with who to start every week for me at QB but with my depth everywhere else (especially RB, T-Rich, Foster, CJ, Tate for the handcuff) I should be able to compensate for lack of a top tier QB.

 

[FUBAR]

If Romo has a career year he is going to win a lot of leagues this year.

Yep. Two of three redrafts got me romo and vick. Romo is underrated.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The quality difference between the non-QB talent in the 7th and in the 10th really isn't that great.

Depends on your projections.

MFL PPR ADP for drafts after Aug 25-

61. 6.01 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 60.67 1 339 1272
62. 6.02 Luck, Andrew IND QB 61.19 1 143 1229
63. 6.03 Wallace, Mike MIA WR 62.55 9 150 1266
64. 6.04 Ball, Montee DEN RB 62.61 1 208 1272
65. 6.05 Griffin III, Robert WAS QB 63.58 1 136 1226
66. 6.06 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 65.65 9 115 1265
67. 6.07 Smith, Steve CAR WR 66.46 22 136 1263
68. 6.08 Romo, Tony DAL QB 70.93 3 181 1242
69. 6.09 Richardson, Daryl STL RB 71.11 4 210 1262
70. 6.10 Jones, James GBP WR 71.17 12 183 1260
71. 6.11 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 72.42 7 176 1264
72. 6.12 Wilson, Russell SEA QB 73.19 1 201 1243

73. 7.01 Vereen, Shane NEP RB 75.50 6 204 1258
74. 7.02 Bradshaw, Ahmad IND RB 77.13 13 267 1258
75. 7.03 Austin, Tavon STL WR 78.43 1 207 1267
76. 7.04 Finley, Jermichael GBP TE 79.14 21 229 1257
77. 7.05 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR 81.67 16 177 1258
78. 7.06 Ivory, Chris NYJ RB 81.68 9 234 1259
79. 7.07 Austin, Miles DAL WR 82.19 10 184 1262
80. 7.08 Jennings, Greg MIN WR 83.76 8 177 1256
81. 7.09 Johnson, Stevie BUF WR 83.91 25 185 1257
82. 7.10 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 85.45 10 268 1264
83. 7.11 Boldin, Anquan SFO WR 85.80 17 193 1258
84. 7.12 Mendenhall, Rashard ARI RB 86.47 3 280 1254

85. 8.01 Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 88.59 5 184 1191
86. 8.02 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB 89.74 5 283 1261
87. 8.03 Olsen, Greg CAR TE 89.93 20 275 1248
88. 8.04 Gordon, Josh CLE WR 90.83 18 190 1249
89. 8.05 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 92.62 11 188 1241
90. 8.06 Williams, Mike TBB WR 94.34 15 216 1252
91. 8.07 Tate, Ben HOU RB 95.28 7 371 1252
92. 8.08 Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB 95.40 11 231 1252
93. 8.09 Ingram, Mark NOS RB 97.07 10 239 1248
94. 8.10 49ers, San Francisco SFO Def 97.85 26 193 1188
95. 8.11 Cook, Jared STL TE 99.85 8 350 1233
96. 8.12 Britt, Kenny TEN WR 99.92 16 198 1246

97. 9.01 Moore, Lance NOS WR 100.09 20 219 1245
98. 9.02 Manning, Eli NYG QB 102.07 9 222 1230
99. 9.03 Vick, Michael PHI QB 102.96 3 249 1238
100. 9.04 Gates, Antonio SDC TE 103.11 9 309 1242
101. 9.05 Daniels, Owen HOU TE 103.97 1 249 1226
102. 9.06 Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR 104.78 6 369 1213
103. 9.07 Givens, Chris STL WR 107.31 32 248 1215
104. 9.08 Bears, Chicago CHI Def 109.60 13 206 1178
105. 9.09 Tate, Golden SEA WR 110.52 8 232 1237
106. 9.10 Blackmon, Justin JAC WR 112.96 14 249 1213
107. 9.11 Texans, Houston HOU Def 113.02 26 207 1177
108. 9.12 Cameron, Jordan CLE TE 113.59 15 247 1196

109. 10.01 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR 113.98 7 242 1211
110. 10.02 Dalton, Andy CIN QB 114.28 14 215 1216
111. 10.03 Floyd, Michael ARI WR 116.38 18 256 1192
112. 10.04 Brown, Vincent SDC WR 116.68 37 288 1197
113. 10.05 Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR 118.02 14 260 1193
114. 10.06 Brown, Andre NYG RB 120.17 36 358 1095
115. 10.07 Rice, Sidney SEA WR 120.36 21 309 1205
116. 10.08 Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 122.61 3 313 1156
117. 10.09 Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB 122.72 12 264 1172
118. 10.10 Brown, Bryce PHI RB 123.94 19 267 1180
119. 10.11 Ballard, Vick IND RB 124.77 26 329 1178
120. 10.12 Pierce, Bernard BAL RB 125.18 7 323 1175

According to this Dalton, Vick and Eli are the only QB being drafted rounds 7-10.

I included the 6th round because some of those QB could fall into the 7th maybe. Which is what I think you are talking about here? That if one of those falls then you would consider taking one of them as your 2nd QB instead of the other positions. Correct?

That would be drafting value based on ADP. If your projections justify that I can see it, but you would need to do it in the 7th round at latest I think since all of those, Luck, RG3, Romo, Wilson do all have a 6th round ADP.

If you already have a QB in the 1st 6 rounds, that leaves 5 picks that could have been used on RB,WR,TE. So in a start 1/2/2/1 you would have a starter for each position by then. If you start 3WR you would not. You would be taking a QB round 7 instead of a starter. You likely also would want to have 3RB before round 7 I think and if you don't you should be looking at them. That means another important semi-starter you would be passing to get this 2nd QB.

I am trying to see how this could be good.

When I was taking a backup early, it was always RGIII, and it was always in the 8th. I'm not interested in some broad concept of "backing up my QB position" in the 8th round, but I was absolutely thrilled with the prospect of landing a top-5 QB when we were already 90 picks deep in the draft.

I think the idea that you're taking a "backup" over a "starter" in the 7th round is a bit specious, though. Nobody has a 100% success rate. When I draft 3 WRs, I don't think "okay, I'm all set, I don't need any starters anymore because none of these guys can possibly bust or get injured". In my mind, everyone's a potential starter through at least the 12th round. I might expect a 3rd WR drafted in the 8th to get more starts than a 2nd QB drafted in the 8th, and therefore might prefer the WR position as a whole, but if the quality of the QB is so much better than the quality of the WR, or if the dropoff at QB is so much steeper than the dropoff at WR, then I think it's fully justified to take a "backup" quarterback before a "starting" receiver.

 

[Biabreakable]

I suppose Griffin could have been had that late in drafts earlier on in the season when it was somewhat less known if he would be healthy enough to play or not. He does not seem to be lasting that long now.

How many rushing yards do you expect from Griffin?

I am expecting 300-400 rushing yards from him. But I would not be shocked if it were less. I would be slightly surprised if he rushed for more than that. Despite how well he ran last season. May want to try to take it easy a bit and try to stay healthy.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Griffin consistently went in the 6th round of all my drafts. Never before or after IIRC

 

[chickensoup]

So much depends on what's in front of you in the draft and what others do in response. I got "screwed" in my work draft (admittedly a lot of people are not great at FF) by a run on backup QBs when I skipped Wilson (got Bryce Brown) in the 7th round and it came back to me in the 8th round with my best available being Carson Palmer, who I then skipped (and got next round) for Josh Gordon.

I'm always fine going QBBC. I don't win every league every year, but QB is rarely my problem, it's almost always RB depth or WR depth if I went RB heavy early. I've taken guys in the QB 5-10 range, but only if they are talented enough in a good enough situation and they fall far enough. But what I always do every year is pick out a decent "low end" QBBC that has a good combined schedule. This year it's Freeman and Palmer.

You can't just pick 2 middling QB seemingly at random to do QBBC. You have to map it out and try to pick the combo that has the nicest matchup potential. Big Ben is a better fantasy QB than Freeman. But Freeman plays ATL, NO, and CAR 6 times this year. Overall Ben will score more, but Freeman will likely score more those weeks so find his compliment.

Edit: going into the season my starting QBBC combo has the following schedule:

NYJ, NO, NO, TB, CAR, PHI, ATL, ATL, SEA, MIA, JAX, IND, PHI, BUF, TEN, StL, NO. I don't think there's a QB in the 6-12 range that has a schedule anywhere near as good as this. In my work league I used a 9th and 11th round pick for my 2 guys instead if a 7th on Wilson. I'm going to keep track of my committees points as I play them this year and see how it compares to the top 12 (removing the higher of the 2 bye week fill ins to give the same number of games)

 

[Adam Harstad]

I suppose Griffin could have been had that late in drafts earlier on in the season when it was somewhat less known if he would be healthy enough to play or not. He does not seem to be lasting that long now.

How many rushing yards do you expect from Griffin?

I am expecting 300-400 rushing yards from him. But I would not be shocked if it were less. I would be slightly surprised if he rushed for more than that. Despite how well he ran last season. May want to try to take it easy a bit and try to stay healthy.

Part of it comes from doing a lot of mocks with FBG staffers, who wait on QB more than the general public, and part of it comes from it being earlier in the season (all during July), but Griffin was pretty consistently going in the 8th. If Griffin is going earlier than that today, I won't wind up with him as my 2nd QB anymore, but he was a guy who I felt very comfortable grabbing if he fell to the 8th, even if it was just as a "backup".

I still think Griffin will get around 600 rushing yards. The Dodds has him projected for 570, Henry has him at 630, Wood has him at 540, and Tremblay has him at 750. I think Tremblay's 750 seems high, but I'd be a lot less surprised by 750 than I would by just 400 (assuming he plays all 16 games).

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

You can't just pick 2 middling QB seemingly at random to do QBBC. You have to map it out and try to pick the combo that has the nicest matchup potential. Big Ben is a better fantasy QB than Freeman. But Freeman plays ATL, NO, and CAR 6 times this year. Overall Ben will score more, but Freeman will likely score more those weeks so find his compliment.

See, this is what drives me crazier than anything else about those who blindly advocate QBBC.

The notion that - in August! - you're going to be able to utilize "defensive matchups" to guide your QBBC draft strategy is specious at best, hilariously misguided at worst. Even if you could be assured of the right combo of QBs falling to you, and even if they represented better value at your specific picks than players at other positions, it still wouldn't be likely to matter. Study after study has shown the correlation between a given team's defensive rankings from one year to the next to be weak, and between the fantasy ADPs and year-end performances of defenses in general to be non-existent.

The fact is - outside of historically good or bad outliers (such as, to be fair, the recent years' Saints pass D) - it's fairly difficult to accurately predict the day before the games how your QBs match up against the defenses they face that week, which is why managing a typical QBBC is so tricky in the first place. Predicting how they'll match up 6, or 10, or 14 weeks from now is a fool's errand. It's a waste of time.

I actually like a Big Ben - Freeman QBBC combo this year; in fact it's one I'm targeting in my last draft tonight. But I like it because it's the exactly the kind of "consistent / upside" pairing I want out of a QBBC. Who's likely to be the more attractive starter for any given game during the fantasy regular season should have nothing to do with it.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Did this last night in a non-PPR 12 team redraft last night (1 pt/50 yds passing, 1 pt/20 yds rushing, 1 pt/15 yds rec) all TDs 6. 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, no flex.

First 5 picks were : Peterson, Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady (!)

As soon as I saw this, I decided to punt on QB. Ryan, Romo, Stafford, Griffin all went in the 3rd/4th, Luck, Kaepernick in the 5th. I waited until pick 8.3 and got Wilson there. Team looks like this :

QB - Wilson (8.3), Alex Smith (12.3)

RB - Spiller (2.3), Sproles (5.10), D. Williams (6.3), Ivory (7.10), L. Bell (10.3), F. Jax (11.10)

WR - Calvin Johnson (1.10), Andre Johnson (3.10), V.Jackson (4.3), J. Gordon (9.10)

I sloughed RB2 as well as QB, as after everyone drafted RBs like crazy after the QB run ended, there wasn't very much left, so I tried to stay ahead of the position runs and draft value with each pick. As a result, I have a weak QB group, a weak RB2BC, but the best receiving corps in the league by a long shot.

 

[Biabreakable]

Those seem like some bold rushing yard expectations for a player with one year of data as a rookie. Who is coming off of a pretty major knee surgery. Who teams have had all off season to plan for. I realize I have a tendency to try to avoid risk when that risk is known, and to also avoid the unknown.

I was curious though what kind of rushing yards the best running QB have put up in their careers. The main thing I noticed is that a 600yd+ is much less common than a 4-500yd season among the top rushing QB. Vick is the main player to have managed to do this multiple times.

Randall Cunningham over 600 3 times and over 500 3 other times.

Daunte Culpepper over 600 1 time and over 400 4 times.

Donovan McNabb over 600 1 time and over 400 2 times.

Steve McNair over 600 1 time, over 500 1 time and over 400 3 times.

Vince Young over 500 1 time.

Steve Young over 500 1 time and over 400 4 times.

Cam Newton has rushed over 700 in his 2 seasons.

But then there is Mike Vick-

2002* 22 ATL QB 7 15 15 113 777 8 46 6.9 51.8 7.5 793 8 9
2004* 24 ATL QB 7 15 15 120 902 3 58 7.5 60.1 8.0 902 3 16
2006 26 ATL QB 7 16 16 123 1039 2 51 8.4 64.9 7.7 1 1 1.0 0 1 0.1 0.1 1040 2 9
2010* 30 PHI QB 7 12 11 100 676 9 35 6.8 56.3 8.3 676 9 11
2005* 25 ATL QB 7 15 15 102 597 6 32 5.9 39.8 6.8 1 -14 -14.0 0 -14 0.1 -0.9 583 6 11
2011 31 PHI QB 7 13 13 76 589 1 53 7.8 45.3 5.8 589 1 10
Almost all of the QB rushing seasons over 600 yards have been seasons where the QB has over 100 rushing attempts. Cunningham did it once with 93 McNabb did once with 86. May have missed a few guys like Kordell Stewart.

So 100+ rushing attempts for Griffin in 2013?

 

[chickensoup]

You can't just pick 2 middling QB seemingly at random to do QBBC. You have to map it out and try to pick the combo that has the nicest matchup potential. Big Ben is a better fantasy QB than Freeman. But Freeman plays ATL, NO, and CAR 6 times this year. Overall Ben will score more, but Freeman will likely score more those weeks so find his compliment.

See, this is what drives me crazier than anything else about those who blindly advocate QBBC.

The notion that - in August! - you're going to be able to utilize "defensive matchups" to guide your QBBC draft strategy is specious at best, hilariously misguided at worst. Even if you could be assured of the right combo of QBs falling to you, and even if they represented better value at your specific picks than players at other positions, it still wouldn't be likely to matter. Study after study has shown the correlation between a given team's defensive rankings from one year to the next to be weak, and between the fantasy ADPs and year-end performances of defenses in general to be non-existent.

The fact is - outside of historically good or bad outliers (such as, to be fair, the recent years' Saints pass D) - it's fairly difficult to accurately predict the day before the games how your QBs match up against the defenses they face that week, which is why managing a typical QBBC is so tricky in the first place. Predicting how they'll match up 6, or 10, or 14 weeks from now is a fool's errand. It's a waste of time.

I actually like a Big Ben - Freeman QBBC combo this year; in fact it's one I'm targeting in my last draft tonight. But I like it because it's the exactly the kind of "consistent / upside" pairing I want out of a QBBC. Who's likely to be the more attractive starter for any given game during the fantasy regular season should have nothing to do with it.

Ranking defenses for FF purposes and actual football purposes are 2 completely different things normally. Usually the turnover as to who is best fantasy wise has more to do with the more random nature of D/ST Touchdowns than a defense coming out of nowhere to be way better than their personnel project to be.

Also, 2 years ago the Packers were the 13th ranked D/ST for fantasy. They had one of the worst seasons defending the pass of all time. Preseason they were ranked number 2 for fantasy, but their high ranking had more to do with sacks and turnovers than with their defense as a whole. Everyone knew they would give up a lot of points, but they would get sacks and turnovers.

I look towards starting guys against bad overall defenses and/or high scoring games. Fantasy D/ST has almost no bearing

 

[Kuz]

I've waited in all 3 of my drafts.

12 team start 2 QB. Was last team to get a QB, but 3rd team to have 2 QBs.

Romo + Luck (4.12/5.01)

12 team. 11th team with QB.

Griffin III. (5.04)

16 team. Last team with a QB, #18 & #21 selected.

Dalton & Schaub. (effectively 8.09 & 9.08 in a 12 team format)

Seems odd that you waited & then drafted 2 QB's back to back with Romo & Luck.. seems like you would of been better off just taking one of them & something else if you're drafting in the 5th/6th round.. Defeats the purpose of waiting..

reading comp down.. 2 QB league - Carry on

 

[Adam Harstad]

Those seem like some bold rushing yard expectations for a player with one year of data as a rookie. Who is coming off of a pretty major knee surgery. Who teams have had all off season to plan for. I realize I have a tendency to try to avoid risk when that risk is known, and to also avoid the unknown.

I was curious though what kind of rushing yards the best running QB have put up in their careers. The main thing I noticed is that a 600yd+ is much less common than a 4-500yd season among the top rushing QB. Vick is the main player to have managed to do this multiple times.

Randall Cunningham over 600 3 times and over 500 3 other times.

Daunte Culpepper over 600 1 time and over 400 4 times.

Donovan McNabb over 600 1 time and over 400 2 times.

Steve McNair over 600 1 time, over 500 1 time and over 400 3 times.

Vince Young over 500 1 time.

Steve Young over 500 1 time and over 400 4 times.

Cam Newton has rushed over 700 in his 2 seasons.

But then there is Mike Vick-

2002* 22 ATL QB 7 15 15 113 777 8 46 6.9 51.8 7.5 793 8 9
2004* 24 ATL QB 7 15 15 120 902 3 58 7.5 60.1 8.0 902 3 16
2006 26 ATL QB 7 16 16 123 1039 2 51 8.4 64.9 7.7 1 1 1.0 0 1 0.1 0.1 1040 2 9
2010* 30 PHI QB 7 12 11 100 676 9 35 6.8 56.3 8.3 676 9 11
2005* 25 ATL QB 7 15 15 102 597 6 32 5.9 39.8 6.8 1 -14 -14.0 0 -14 0.1 -0.9 583 6 11
2011 31 PHI QB 7 13 13 76 589 1 53 7.8 45.3 5.8 589 1 10
Almost all of the QB rushing seasons over 600 yards have been seasons where the QB has over 100 rushing attempts. Cunningham did it once with 93 McNabb did once with 86. May have missed a few guys like Kordell Stewart.

So 100+ rushing attempts for Griffin in 2013?

Yes, if given an o/u on rushing attempts of 100, I would take the over.

I'm a big fan of historical comparisons. I think they're phenomenal tools, and I don't think people use them often enough. With that said, there's not a great historical comparison for Robert Griffin. How many starting QBs have been legitimate, honest-to-goodness, not-even-close-to-exaggerating Olympic-caliber track stars? Robert set an NCAA midwest regional record and finished 3rd in the nation in the 400 hurdles... while he was still a senior in high school.

Griffin's legs are too much of a weapon for the team not to use them. It'd be like the Ravens telling Flacco to stop throwing deep because he might strain his shoulder. Griffin's wheels are part of his DNA, they're a huge part of what makes him a successful QB at the NFL level. Using historical comps for Griffin is a bit akin to using historical comps for Vick or Cunningham. They're too different from anyone that came before for the historical comparisons to do them justice.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I look towards starting guys against bad overall defenses and/or high scoring games. Fantasy D/ST has almost no bearing

Okay, then. Here's how the bottom 10 (#23-32) NFL pass defenses in 2012 (measured by fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs) ranked by that same measure in 2011: 4, 30, 9, 29, 32, 14, 17, 13, 28, 26.

In other words, the odds that any given year's "bad overall defense" against your QB will rank in the NFL's bottom 10 the very next year are no better than a coin-flip.

With the possible exception of true outliers like the '00 Ravens or the '12 Saints, any evaluation in August of how your QBBC will perform against various defenses in October, November, and December has effectively no predictive power. There are many valid inputs for determining draft preferences for a QBBC, but this one belongs waaaay down the list.

 

[Thews40]

Something different about QB's this year are concussions. In years past, a QB could have a "slight" concussion and be back the next week. This year, even the hint of a concussion is going to sideline a QB for two weeks (IMO) just so they can run all the tests. The running QB's are the most vulnerable, but Aaron Rogers and his crappy O-line also poses a risk. Having a combo like Luck/Romo seems very safe and playing either on any given week isn't like having to plug in a QB on a mediocre offense and crossing your fingers.

 

[chickensoup]

I look towards starting guys against bad overall defenses and/or high scoring games. Fantasy D/ST has almost no bearing

Okay, then. Here's how the bottom 10 (#23-32) NFL pass defenses in 2012 (measured by fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs) ranked by that same measure in 2011: 4, 30, 9, 29, 32, 14, 17, 13, 28, 26.

In other words, the odds that any given year's "bad overall defense" against your QB will rank in the NFL's bottom 10 the very next year are no better than a coin-flip.

With the possible exception of true outliers like the '00 Ravens or the '12 Saints, any evaluation in August of how your QBBC will perform against various defenses in October, November, and December has effectively no predictive power. There are many valid inputs for determining draft preferences for a QBBC, but this one belongs waaaay down the list.

So what you are saying is, you dont want the QB combination that plays teams like ATL, NO, PHI or BUF and would instead go for the QB rated like 5 slots higher and will probably finish somewhere around less than a point per week more?

were not talking about taking Matt Ryan (great passing schedule) over Rodgers (relatively poor passing schedule in comparison in my opinion at least). Were talking about if you wait on QB, and end up with a QBBC, trying to pair up two guys with seemingly favorable schedules based on the personnel on the opponents team should be something you look at. I am in no way saying that Palmer and Freeman combined equal Stafford or RG3. but a large part of their downside comes from some of the teams they face this year, Seattle and SF being the two biggest.

You're absolutely right, it could blow up in your face but its really never been nearly as bad as you make it sound. If you do any sort of research whatsoever into the defensive side of the ball you know who had upgrades on their roster and who didnt. you know which teams are expected to improve their secondary and who didnt (which is really like 90% of what playing QBBC is about, predicting other teams secondaries).

If you get it wrong, youre generally 3-4 points per week behind the guy who took the 11ths QB off the table (12th is a backup for someone if you go QBBC) at that position, but you have a better player at another position and possibly more depth for injury at other positions (namely RB). Thats about what you get if you play Carson Palmer instead of Wilson if both play as is currently projected (projections which i think are overly critical of Palmer given scheme and players he is now with). Meanwhile you got him 5 rounds later and a team has a dead bench spot. You also have pretty much only upside on those players as they get drafted so low and can sit him anytime you want (read: against defenses that you know are good) in favor of another person who isnt exactly facing a steller defense (provided you do any kind of homework on defenses)

Edit: I'd also like to point out that even if it doesnt work on an individual game, over 16 if you pick guys who mesh well together, it will more often than not work out. the gains may be small, but you dont need much gain to turn 2 guys into one fantasy starter, and you get them way later. With some guys, a lot of their downside comes from the really bad games they will have against actually elite defenses, which if you are doing it right, turns that into a posative by instead facing a different guy against NO or ATL or games where they will have to throw alot like NE or GB,

 

[sooted72]

It is a fact that in every draft there is one person that waits until everyone else has taken a QB before they take theirs.

math checks out.

 

[thecardiackid]

14 team, relatively competitive league I was the last to draft a qb, and there were 2 backups off the board.

R10 - Big Ben

R13 - Rivers

I missed on Vick by one pick in the 8th, but I think Ben (if he stays healthy) will go for 4000 and 30 or so. With the mess PIT has at RB, I think they'll be chucking it a lot.

And Rivers has OAK to cover the bye. I'm not crazy about it, but I do really like the rest of the squad.

 

[Man of Zen]

Drafted third and final serious league this PM.

Waited an eternity, and wound up with Bradford and Pryor. A handful of semi-terrible options still in FA, just in case the Pryor experiment busts, but I thought a good risk as a backup if you're happy with your starter, and I am.

 

[Run It Up]

14 team, relatively competitive league I was the last to draft a qb, and there were 2 backups off the board.

R10 - Big Ben

R13 - Rivers

I missed on Vick by one pick in the 8th, but I think Ben (if he stays healthy) will go for 4000 and 30 or so. With the mess PIT has at RB, I think they'll be chucking it a lot.

And Rivers has OAK to cover the bye. I'm not crazy about it, but I do really like the rest of the squad.

Ive been targetting Rivers as my QB2/3, partly because hes at the top of that last to be taken QB tier for me, with the likes of Cutler and Flacco and partly because the other guys I'm targetting as are Roethlisberger and Dalton and they are going sooner than I'm willing to take them; but mostly because its a contract year for Rivers, and by the look of that defense they are going to be throwing a lot. Like 550+ attempts a lot.

I have his ceiling at somewhere aroudn 380/4800/35 and 20 ints...

 

[jurb26]

My indication to start looking for a QB is usually when the 1st couple backups start getting drafted.

 

[infantsam]

Did it and got Romo/Vick in a RB type league.

Romo has serious weapons. I think the dominance of Bryant is mid blossom and Austin/Witten are not slouches.

It has all the makings of a very productive year. I thought it was worth it.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

If you don't get one of the top 3 (Brees, Rodgers, or Manning) I'd wait until very late. I landed Romo in the 9th.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I planned on riding the QB carousel this year, as I do every year, but it just didn't happen. For some reason (no wait, I know the reason) I ended up with Matt Ryan on a very large percentage of my teams. I've always felt that biding your time is/was the shark move, but seeing as how QBs as a whole were coming off the board much later this year, I saw immense value in grabbing a top flight QB on the cheap.

Don't get me wrong, I think a QBBC can still be successful but I didn't feel the need to take that route this year.

 

[infantsam]

I'd take Ryan all day. Lost my championship to him last year.

SJax only helps

 

[Run It Up]

I'd take Ryan all day. Lost my championship to him last year.

SJax only helps

Rushing TDs don't help Matty lol, having a back capable of running down the game also doesn't help.