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QB Trey Lance, LAC (9 Viewers)

Mahomes behind that O line would look cooked, just sayin.
Darnold looked a lot better behind the same crappy OL. Of course, you’d expect someone who has Darnold’s amount of experience to look better under the same situation as a guy who has played like 2 games of football in the last 4 years, but Lance is just never have the luxury of being thrown out there and taking his lumps on this team (like Darnold did for years).
 
Darnold looked a lot better behind the same crappy OL

Actually they were different lines, but they were all 2s and 3s. Maybe the line Darnold played with was the better combo.

Lance's line to start:

LT- Jaylon Moore
LG-Jason Poe
C-Jon Feliciano
RG- Nick Zakelj
RT-Matt Pryor

Then shuffled to:

LT Leroy Watson
LG Jason Poe
C Keith Ishmael
RG Nick Zakelj
RT Matt Pryor


Darnolds line:

LT Ilm Manning
LG Jason Poe
C Keith Ismael
RG Nick Zakelj
RT Leroy Watson
 
Lombardis take

Trey Lance continues to be a victim of warped expectations.

He was obviously too raw to start in 2021. He’s improved mechanics here in 2023, but must clearly still develop more consistency — especially from the pocket.

At both junctures, there’s been an unreasonable outside expectation that Lance would magically morph into a polished vet QB at the snap of a finger. In 2021, many insisted he’d start over Garoppolo. Here in 2023, many insisted he’d be able to easily match Purdy’s 2022 efficiency.

But it just doesn’t work that way, and the assumption that it does have set those unrealistic expectations for Lance, which aren’t fair to him.

It’s harder to accept this since Lance is already in Year 3, but that’s what the two injuries did. They stalled his development. Those were brutal breaks.


And

The reason Shanahan ran Trey Lance so frequently in 2021-2022 is because Lance needed that runway while he was developing as a pocket passer. That was the most efficient path forward for the 49ers offense at the time. It gave them the best chance to win while Lance got seasoning.

Here in 2023, given the emergence of Brock Purdy, Lance no longer has runway time. He must deliver within the confines of the pocket-based system, because that’s what QB1 Purdy’s skill set dictates. And today we saw that Lance has a ways to go when it comes to comfort within that framework.

Put simply: Lance needs the time and reps that injuries took away from him in 2021 and 2022
 
Lombardis take

Trey Lance continues to be a victim of warped expectations.

He was obviously too raw to start in 2021. He’s improved mechanics here in 2023, but must clearly still develop more consistency — especially from the pocket.

At both junctures, there’s been an unreasonable outside expectation that Lance would magically morph into a polished vet QB at the snap of a finger. In 2021, many insisted he’d start over Garoppolo. Here in 2023, many insisted he’d be able to easily match Purdy’s 2022 efficiency.

But it just doesn’t work that way, and the assumption that it does have set those unrealistic expectations for Lance, which aren’t fair to him.

It’s harder to accept this since Lance is already in Year 3, but that’s what the two injuries did. They stalled his development. Those were brutal breaks.


And

The reason Shanahan ran Trey Lance so frequently in 2021-2022 is because Lance needed that runway while he was developing as a pocket passer. That was the most efficient path forward for the 49ers offense at the time. It gave them the best chance to win while Lance got seasoning.

Here in 2023, given the emergence of Brock Purdy, Lance no longer has runway time. He must deliver within the confines of the pocket-based system, because that’s what QB1 Purdy’s skill set dictates. And today we saw that Lance has a ways to go when it comes to comfort within that framework.

Put simply: Lance needs the time and reps that injuries took away from him in 2021 and 2022

This is a weak analysis though. He was a hugely regarded high pick that cost the 49ers a ton of picks. This isn't a 4th round pick you are hoping will develop and he is analyzing him as such.

I took a beating form day 1 saying this was a waste of a pick for the 49ers (not tooting my own horn because i am often wrong) and nothing has changed my opinion. In fact I think it's even worse than i would have guessed it was
 
We really have no way of knowing with certainty if he could be good at football. Dude needs time on task.

Whole different level of complexity playing QB but Detroit is going through a similar experience with Jamo. Thin undergrad resume, injuries, the raw material is there but there’s no refinement. Williams has a path, and while the expectations/scrutiny are high, it’s nowhere near the pressure a QB who was the 3rd overall pick deals with.

Is there a scenario in which Lance gets his chance in SF? Without multiple injuries?
 
We really have no way of knowing with certainty if he could be good at football. Dude needs time on task.

Whole different level of complexity playing QB but Detroit is going through a similar experience with Jamo. Thin undergrad resume, injuries, the raw material is there but there’s no refinement. Williams has a path, and while the expectations/scrutiny are high, it’s nowhere near the pressure a QB who was the 3rd overall pick deals with.

Is there a scenario in which Lance gets his chance in SF? Without multiple injuries?

With his play right now I would say no.

The 49ers are in win now mode and they need to get consistent play from the QB. If all else fails i suspect this is Darnold's ship to sail
 
We really have no way of knowing with certainty if he could be good at football. Dude needs time on task.

Whole different level of complexity playing QB but Detroit is going through a similar experience with Jamo. Thin undergrad resume, injuries, the raw material is there but there’s no refinement. Williams has a path, and while the expectations/scrutiny are high, it’s nowhere near the pressure a QB who was the 3rd overall pick deals with.

Is there a scenario in which Lance gets his chance in SF? Without multiple injuries?

With his play right now I would say no.

The 49ers are in win now mode and they need to get consistent play from the QB. If all else fails i suspect this is Darnold's ship to sail

Looks that way from afar as well. Then again multiple injuries within the same position group has been a thing on the 49ers for awhile (hope not, always wish good health for players.)

In a different kind of situation I think Lance could develop. Someone will think they can fix him.
 
We really have no way of knowing with certainty if he could be good at football. Dude needs time on task.

Whole different level of complexity playing QB but Detroit is going through a similar experience with Jamo. Thin undergrad resume, injuries, the raw material is there but there’s no refinement. Williams has a path, and while the expectations/scrutiny are high, it’s nowhere near the pressure a QB who was the 3rd overall pick deals with.

Is there a scenario in which Lance gets his chance in SF? Without multiple injuries?

With his play right now I would say no.

The 49ers are in win now mode and they need to get consistent play from the QB. If all else fails i suspect this is Darnold's ship to sail

Looks that way from afar as well. Then again multiple injuries within the same position group has been a thing on the 49ers for awhile (hope not, always wish good health for players.)

In a different kind of situation I think Lance could develop. Someone will think they can fix him.

Usually takes a while for any high pick to come off the 'someone thinks they can fix them train'. heck the 49ers signed Darnold after all :)
 
Just offering this out there as this is a FF board, but I just traded away Aaron Jones for Lance in a nonppr, superflex dynasty league. I also have Purdy and Darnold (I'm pretty deep at RB as well) so this locks up SF QB situation for me, but my main factor in making the deal was the hope that Lance actually goes elsewhere and is given one chance somewhere. Should that pay off, I obviously crush this trade. Should it not, I probably look silly here but I thought the risk/reward was worth it for a good but aging RB in a superflex.
 
I traded away Lance right before cut down date last month for the 6.08 pick. Basically the 5th-from-last rookie draft pick.
And I still feel like I came out ahead.
 
Just offering this out there as this is a FF board, but I just traded away Aaron Jones for Lance in a nonppr, superflex dynasty league. I also have Purdy and Darnold (I'm pretty deep at RB as well) so this locks up SF QB situation for me, but my main factor in making the deal was the hope that Lance actually goes elsewhere and is given one chance somewhere. Should that pay off, I obviously crush this trade. Should it not, I probably look silly here but I thought the risk/reward was worth it for a good but aging RB in a superflex.
ouch
 
Just offering this out there as this is a FF board, but I just traded away Aaron Jones for Lance in a nonppr, superflex dynasty league. I also have Purdy and Darnold (I'm pretty deep at RB as well) so this locks up SF QB situation for me, but my main factor in making the deal was the hope that Lance actually goes elsewhere and is given one chance somewhere. Should that pay off, I obviously crush this trade. Should it not, I probably look silly here but I thought the risk/reward was worth it for a good but aging RB in a superflex.
ouch
Perhaps, but I would note that the monthly FBG dynasty rankings support the trade from my side when you account for superflex.
 
Just offering this out there as this is a FF board, but I just traded away Aaron Jones for Lance in a nonppr, superflex dynasty league. I also have Purdy and Darnold (I'm pretty deep at RB as well) so this locks up SF QB situation for me, but my main factor in making the deal was the hope that Lance actually goes elsewhere and is given one chance somewhere. Should that pay off, I obviously crush this trade. Should it not, I probably look silly here but I thought the risk/reward was worth it for a good but aging RB in a superflex.
I think Trey Lance will be out of the NFL before Aaron Jones is. I'm not sure I saw a worse QB this past week.

Hopefully it works out for you, but the odds are very much not on your side.
 
Just offering this out there as this is a FF board, but I just traded away Aaron Jones for Lance in a nonppr, superflex dynasty league. I also have Purdy and Darnold (I'm pretty deep at RB as well) so this locks up SF QB situation for me, but my main factor in making the deal was the hope that Lance actually goes elsewhere and is given one chance somewhere. Should that pay off, I obviously crush this trade. Should it not, I probably look silly here but I thought the risk/reward was worth it for a good but aging RB in a superflex.
I think Trey Lance will be out of the NFL before Aaron Jones is. I'm not sure I saw a worse QB this past week.

Hopefully it works out for you, but the odds are very much not on your side.
For sure. I may look kinda silly for the move but thought it a worthy gamble in dynasty given my roster construction and it being a superflex.
 
It’s frustrating, because all the physical tools that made Trey Lance such an intriguing NFL prospect are still there
How about the most important tool for a QB? What's between his ears. We forget this as fantasy players because the running aspect is so valuable in our game. But it's nothing compared to quickly processing what the defense is doing and delivering an accurate and on time pass.
 
Just offering this out there as this is a FF board, but I just traded away Aaron Jones for Lance in a nonppr, superflex dynasty league. I also have Purdy and Darnold (I'm pretty deep at RB as well) so this locks up SF QB situation for me, but my main factor in making the deal was the hope that Lance actually goes elsewhere and is given one chance somewhere. Should that pay off, I obviously crush this trade. Should it not, I probably look silly here but I thought the risk/reward was worth it for a good but aging RB in a superflex.
ouch
Perhaps, but I would note that the monthly FBG dynasty rankings support the trade from my side when you account for superflex.
Not even SF IMO.
 
It’s frustrating, because all the physical tools that made Trey Lance such an intriguing NFL prospect are still there
How about the most important tool for a QB? What's between his ears. We forget this as fantasy players because the running aspect is so valuable in our game. But it's nothing compared to quickly processing what the defense is doing and delivering an accurate and on time pass.
I saw that from Aidan O'Connell yesterday. No hesitation and perfectly on time delivered TD pass that wasn't just a dump off.
 
8
It’s frustrating, because all the physical tools that made Trey Lance such an intriguing NFL prospect are still there
How about the most important tool for a QB? What's between his ears. We forget this as fantasy players because the running aspect is so valuable in our game. But it's nothing compared to quickly processing what the defense is doing and delivering an accurate and on time pass.
I saw that from Aidan O'Connell yesterday. No hesitation and perfectly on time delivered TD pass that wasn't just a dump off.

That's what Purdy does and that's why he's QB1 in SF.

What's weird is all I heard when they drafted Lance was how high his football IQ was and how he could read defenses, etc, but I haven't seen that yet.

When I watch Purdy - and I noticed this from the get go in the Miami game where he came in cold - I can see him processing his pre snap reads as he walks from huddle to center. He already knows where he's prob gonna go with the ball because he knows where everyone should be, and if it's not there, he can quickly progress thru his reads and be decisive most of the time.

Lance is nowhere near that level.
 
I have no idea what Lance thought he saw there but I’ll tell you what he didn’t see: 4 white jerseys, including the gigantic one standing right in front of his intended receiver.

Just a no good terrible lack of awareness & vision, combined with a panicked throw to no one, with predictable results.
 
Re: that first link, I knew it was Daniel Kelly before I made the mistake of clicking that link. Scouted briefly for the Parcells Jets in the late 90s and hasn’t found another gig in the league since then. Wonder why that could be. Dude was hating on Lance long before it was trendy to. Said any GM who drafts him should be fired on the spot, said he wouldn’t draft him or even sign him as a free agent.

Closed it the moment I heard Cowherd say Kelly’s name but I’m guessing it’s him taking a victory lap and repeating what he said two years ago.
 
Re: that first link, I knew it was Daniel Kelly before I made the mistake of clicking that link. Scouted briefly for the Parcells Jets in the late 90s and hasn’t found another gig in the league since then. Wonder why that could be. Dude was hating on Lance long before it was trendy to. Said any GM who drafts him should be fired on the spot, said he wouldn’t draft him or even sign him as a free agent.

Closed it the moment I heard Cowherd say Kelly’s name but I’m guessing it’s him taking a victory lap and repeating what he said two years ago.
That doesn’t make him wrong
 
Re: that first link, I knew it was Daniel Kelly before I made the mistake of clicking that link. Scouted briefly for the Parcells Jets in the late 90s and hasn’t found another gig in the league since then. Wonder why that could be. Dude was hating on Lance long before it was trendy to. Said any GM who drafts him should be fired on the spot, said he wouldn’t draft him or even sign him as a free agent.

Closed it the moment I heard Cowherd say Kelly’s name but I’m guessing it’s him taking a victory lap and repeating what he said two years ago.
That doesn’t make him wrong
It doesn’t make him right either. There isn’t enough sample size to conclude that Lance wouldn’t even be worth signing as an undrafted free agent, as Kelly put it.
 
Re: that first link, I knew it was Daniel Kelly before I made the mistake of clicking that link. Scouted briefly for the Parcells Jets in the late 90s and hasn’t found another gig in the league since then. Wonder why that could be. Dude was hating on Lance long before it was trendy to. Said any GM who drafts him should be fired on the spot, said he wouldn’t draft him or even sign him as a free agent.

Closed it the moment I heard Cowherd say Kelly’s name but I’m guessing it’s him taking a victory lap and repeating what he said two years ago.
That doesn’t make him wrong
It doesn’t make him right either. There isn’t enough sample size to conclude that Lance wouldn’t even be worth signing as an undrafted free agent, as Kelly put it.
I was right there with you not too long ago. My confidence in Lance is starting to wane.
 
Re: that first link, I knew it was Daniel Kelly before I made the mistake of clicking that link. Scouted briefly for the Parcells Jets in the late 90s and hasn’t found another gig in the league since then. Wonder why that could be. Dude was hating on Lance long before it was trendy to. Said any GM who drafts him should be fired on the spot, said he wouldn’t draft him or even sign him as a free agent.

Closed it the moment I heard Cowherd say Kelly’s name but I’m guessing it’s him taking a victory lap and repeating what he said two years ago.
That doesn’t make him wrong
It doesn’t make him right either. There isn’t enough sample size to conclude that Lance wouldn’t even be worth signing as an undrafted free agent, as Kelly put it.
I was right there with you not too long ago. My confidence in Lance is starting to wane.
My confidence is just about shot. I’m just hesitant to be too certain in either direction (that he’ll succeed or that he’ll never make it) because I haven’t seen enough to make that determination. He only has 262 career snaps to his name and everyone knew he was raw coming in. He’s not a finished product. We don’t know what he is yet. From a fantasy perspective though I understand the frustration. The 49ers aren’t trading him and probably fine just holding him as their QB3 until his contract runs out. No team in 2025 is going to sign him to be their starter with so much unknown. I don’t know. I’m just waiting to see if we see more out of him. If Purdy and Darnold are hurt or underperforming we might see Lance out there again, and who knows what might happen from there.
 
Former NFL QB J.T. O’Sullivan does some nice in-depth film study of quarterbacks on his YouTube channel if any of you are interested in that kind of stuff.

Here’s his analysis of Trey Lance’s performance in preseason Week 2.

 
While Lance may be a bust, I think they have to hold onto him until trade deadline.

What happens if Purdy stinks this year? It's a big "what if" but if after a year of tape for defenses to study, totally possible for him to regress.


For what was invested and probably lack of trade value coming off that injury, dude would rot on the bench if I was in charge of that team. I still think he has to be in your plans until you know for sure Purdy is going to be the guy.
 
While Lance may be a bust, I think they have to hold onto him until trade deadline.

What happens if Purdy stinks this year? It's a big "what if" but if after a year of tape for defenses to study, totally possible for him to regress.


For what was invested and probably lack of trade value coming off that injury, dude would rot on the bench if I was in charge of that team. I still think he has to be in your plans until you know for sure Purdy is going to be the guy.
I think Shanahan probably turns to Darnold then. He's always liked him and for all the bashing Darnold has taken (a lot of it justified), he's capable enough to manage the offense and distribute the ball to their playmakers. Darnold would be a much better QB by now if he didn't have to deal with Adam Gase at the beginning of his career.
 
Ive gone from thinking Lance will get a chance to take the job and run while Purdy recovers to him being beat out by Sam Darnold of all people!

I have zero confidence that Lance will succeed in SF - he will likely get one more shot somewhere so Im reluctantly holding in Dynasty SF but otherwise hes toast
 

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