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QB Trey Lance, LAC (6 Viewers)

As discussed above, I don't think it's a given that Lance takes over next year even if the Niners fall flat to the Packers. Jimmy has done a credible job this year - he doesn't post eyepopping stats, but has still managed the offense reasonably well to get where it is. Granted, the draft capital traded to get Lance may force the team's hand, but we're assuming that a team will trade for Jimmy and take on his contract. And if they don't, I can't imagine the Niners would outright cut Jimmy. This will be one of the more interesting storylines in the offseason.


Jimmy G is severely limiting this team imo. The defense is pretty great, running game is great and good wrs/te. They should be one of the best teams of the league. But they barely made the playoffs and won a game the cowboys pretty much beat themselves. That's close the ceiling Jimmy. To me, it really showed how much they need to move on. Time to put Lance in next year and let him learn on the job.

 
You serious Clark? They gave up a ton of draft capitol to get Lance. ZERO % chance that happens. 


Plus let's not forget a major drawback on Jimmy G which is that he seems banged up or unavailable a lot. I think in last 4 years he's missed close to 40% of his games played. Even ifsomeone says well  sure but he had an ACL early that one year and that's bloating the numbers then you remove that year and he's still missing 25% of his games over the last 3 years. And other then missed games just seems like a new injury crops up all the time, like right now.  I did not think it was much of a secret that part of the reason they moved up to 3 was over issues with JG's durability and 15/17 is a lot better then he's been but I just don't think he's changed a lot of minds going forward on his availability concerns.

 
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IIRC Jimmy has no guaranteed money left.  Even if they can't trade Jimmy - and I think they'll be able to - Lance + a couple decent free agents at CB (signed using Jimmy's cap savings) is probably worth more than keeping Jimmy on for another year.
If Wentz can get a 1st then I think Jimmy G can as well - maybe a 2d with incentives to be a 1st.  Not sure how SF can refuse the cap space, draft picks to offset what they gave up for Lance and not wasting another year of Lance's rookie contract....but each playoff win makes it more interesting.  

Jimmy G is 30 and its the last year of his deal - a team trading for him could easily get that cap hit down by extending for 2 yrs and giving a hefty signing bonus.  Teams could do a lot worse.  

 
SF advancing is not good for Lance getting the job next year.  Jimmy G didnt play great but he has shown to be able to win with this team where Lance is an unknown.  Each playoff game he wins it will be harder and harder to make the switch - but at the same time the compensation will get higher and higher.  I just dont know how they can keep Lance on the bench after paying all that draft capital but its possible.  
I actually disagree. The Niners know that Lance is the guy long term and by winning a playoff game(s), that only enhances Jimmy G.'s value. This could not have worked out better for SF. There are so many QB needy teams and we all know you cannot win without exceptional QB play.

Short of winning a Super Bowl, which almost forces JG to stay, he's as good as gone- with a nice premium on the return.

 
I actually disagree. The Niners know that Lance is the guy long term and by winning a playoff game(s), that only enhances Jimmy G.'s value. This could not have worked out better for SF. There are so many QB needy teams and we all know you cannot win without exceptional QB play.

Short of winning a Super Bowl, which almost forces JG to stay, he's as good as gone- with a nice premium on the return.
So how does Jimmy G rectify the bolded?  He is not an exceptional QB that will a team a Super Bowl without having a ton of other stuff in place.  

 
Ack88 said:
I actually disagree. The Niners know that


Lance


is the guy long term and by winning a playoff game(s), that only enhances Jimmy G.'s value. This could not have worked out better for SF. There are so many QB needy teams and we all know you cannot win without exceptional QB play.

Short of winning a Super Bowl, which almost forces JG to stay, he's as good as gone- with a nice premium on the return.


Now is he the "long term" guy because he's that good?  Or is he the "long term" guy simply because they took him in the 1st round?

I really haven't seen enough of him to make a determination that much, but, from what I have seen, my gut says he looks just like same running QBs NFL teams get so enamored with on draft day.

Of course, my gut says it needs another back of Doritos too, so I could be wrong.  

 
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Now is he the "long term" guy because he's that good?  Or is he the "long term" guy simply because they took him in the 1st round?
They didn’t just take him in the first round, they gave up the equivalent of three first round picks and a third rounder to draft him. Whether he’s ready or not, he will be starting next season. 
 

For what it’s worth, I watched every snap he took this season. He’s certainly raw, and his passing most definitely needs polishing, but I think his ceiling is absurd when you factor in his rushing ability. Sitting behind Jimmy G this season I think will prove to be a monumental factor in his development and success. 

 
Now is he the "long term" guy because he's that good?  Or is he the "long term" guy simply because they took him in the 1st round?

I really haven't seen enough of him to make a determination that much, but, from what I have seen, my gut says he looks just like same running QBs NFL teams get so enamored with on draft day.

Of course, my gut says it needs another back of Doritos too, so I could be wrong.  
Absent a Super Bowl win, Lance will be the guy. or at least given every opportunity to be the guy. Whether or not he's successful is yet to be seen, but I think he will be.

The Niners essentially gave up 3 1s to land Trey, a capital investment. There is no way such an investment is made without every attempt to determine is Lance is worth the ROI.

Now- if the Niners win the Super Bowl, this plan is delayed, but short of that, I'd be astounded if Lance wasn't the starter next year. Starting QBs on rookie deals offer a massive potential advantage.

 
Absent a Super Bowl win, Lance will be the guy. or at least given every opportunity to be the guy. Whether or not he's successful is yet to be seen, but I think he will be.

The Niners essentially gave up 3 1s to land Trey, a capital investment. There is no way such an investment is made without every attempt to determine is Lance is worth the ROI.

Now- if the Niners win the Super Bowl, this plan is delayed, but short of that, I'd be astounded if Lance wasn't the starter next year. Starting QBs on rookie deals offer a massive potential advantage.
Nice post.  I predict this time next year he could have more fantasy value than Mahomes.

 
Lance may need a new clipboard to hold during 2022 at this rate. Jimmy isn’t playing very well, but he’s winning and that may be enough for them. 

 
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Plus let's not forget a major drawback on Jimmy G which is that he seems banged up or unavailable a lot. I think in last 4 years he's missed close to 40% of his games played. Even ifsomeone says well  sure but he had an ACL early that one year and that's bloating the numbers then you remove that year and he's still missing 25% of his games over the last 3 years. And other then missed games just seems like a new injury crops up all the time, like right now.  I did not think it was much of a secret that part of the reason they moved up to 3 was over issues with JG's durability and 15/17 is a lot better then he's been but I just don't think he's changed a lot of minds going forward on his availability concerns.


Lance went what, 1.5 games before he was injured?  I don't think he can be expected to stay healthy anymore than what you could expect from Jimmy G.  The 49ers will be lucky if Lance ever develops into the QB that Jimmy G already is.  Trade Lance, get the draft capital back (in a draft that is supposed to be bad on QB they can get a haul for him) and build a good team around your proven winner.  

 
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Lance went what, 1.5 games before he was injured?  I don't think he can be expected to stay healthy anymore than what you could expect from Jimmy G.  The 49ers will be lucky if Lance ever develops into the QB that Jimmy G already is.  Trade Lance, get the draft capital back and build a good team around your proven winner.  
You serious, Clark?

 
Lance may need a new clipboard to hold during 2022 at this rate. Jimmy isn’t playing very well, but he’s winning and that may be enough for them. 
If Jimmy G wins them the Super Bowl, I'd bet he still gets traded. Just increases what they'd get for him. 99.9% chance Lance is starting next year, with the .1 being if he somehow gets hurt between now and the new league year.

 
Totally, I know that won't happen but it should certainly be considered.  What if a team offers them more picks than they gave up?  Hopefully SF enjoys sucking once they make the change. 
Yes, 11/19 for 131 yards and a pick(he should have had about 4 picks if you watched the game at least, and at least two for pick 6’s. Not to mention the numerous ducks and hospital balls) are going to be tough numbers to replicate. Was that him that blocked the punt, too? 

 
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Yes, 11/19 for 131 yards and a pick(he should have had about 4 picks if you watched the game at least, and at least two for pick 6’s. Not to mention the numerous ducks and medicine balls) are going to be tough numbers to replicate. Was that him that blocked the punt, too? 


Just like the monsoon game... he played a good game given the conditions but still gets tons of unwarranted hate.  How many more yards and possibly TD's would he have had if his receivers caught the balls that hit their hands? 

 
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Just like the monsoon game... he played a good game given the conditions but still gets tons of unwarranted hate.  How many more yards and possibly TD's would he have had if his receivers caught the balls that hit their hands? 
I remember two drops that were actually on the receiver, one by Kittle and one by Aiyuk. The rest were off-target throws by Jimmy, many wildly off-target. 

 
Shanahan doesn’t care about our fantasy teams, just about winning. But team management/ownership does care about draft capital spent, so that is probably our answer for 2022.

 
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Lance went what, 1.5 games before he was injured?  I don't think he can be expected to stay healthy anymore than what you could expect from Jimmy G.  The 49ers will be lucky if Lance ever develops into the QB that Jimmy G already is.  Trade Lance, get the draft capital back (in a draft that is supposed to be bad on QB they can get a haul for him) and build a good team around your proven winner.  


Totally, I know that won't happen but it should certainly be considered.  What if a team offers them more picks than they gave up?  Hopefully SF enjoys sucking once they make the change. 
With this draft class appearing to lack stellar QB prospects anything is possible but that seems extremely unlikely. 
Jimmy is probably gone, but I’d think having him as their backup option if Lance doesn’t look great in camp wouldn’t be a bad way to go if they don’t find a buyer.  
I’m not sure he’ll be extremely accepting of that COA. 

 
I remember two drops that were actually on the receiver, one by Kittle and one by Aiyuk. The rest were off-target throws by Jimmy, many wildly off-target. 
Maybe, but the Jimmy conversation is a lot different today if Kittle hangs onto that likely 65 yard TD. 

 
Maybe, but the Jimmy conversation is a lot different today if Kittle hangs onto that likely 65 yard TD. 
It’s also a lot different if SF doesn’t block that punt for a TD and GB doesn’t choke the game away. Twitter verse was trending last night with people wondering if they were going to put in Lance well into the 4th quarter lol. 

 
It’s also a lot different if SF doesn’t block that punt for a TD and GB doesn’t choke the game away. Twitter verse was trending last night with people wondering if they were going to put in Lance well into the 4th quarter lol. 


Twitterverse is clueless, you can't go by what people are saying there. 

 
Shanahan doesn’t care about our fantasy teams, just about winning. But team management/ownership does care about draft capital spent, so that is probably our answer for 2022.
Agree with all of this except draft capital. Maybe one of the few places where what you do is what gets you a roster spot. Trey Sermon hardly played this year b/c the 6th round guy is better and Aiyuk seemed in the doghouse for the first half of the year and he is a former 1st rounder. Gotta kind of admire this approach. 

 
Shanahan doesn’t care about our fantasy teams, just about winning. But team management/ownership does care about draft capital spent, so that is probably our answer for 2022.
Agree with all of this except draft capital. Maybe one of the few places where what you do is what gets you a roster spot. Trey Sermon hardly played this year b/c the 6th round guy is better and Aiyuk seemed in the doghouse for the first half of the year and he is a former 1st rounder. Gotta kind of admire this approach. 
Totally agree with you as well, but there's draft capital and there's draft capital (with bold and italics for emphasis). The latter clearly applying to Lance.

 
Assuming they make the switch - this run has to be a massive positive experience for Lance to be soaking up - so many highly drafted rookie QBs are put into terrible situations....Lance is going to move right into a legit Super Bowl ready team.  The only times I can remember that happening is Mahomes and Rodgers.  

 
Totally agree with you as well, but there's draft capital and there's draft capital (with bold and italics for emphasis). The latter clearly applying to Lance.
Oh yeah for sure I feel ya there. 

Lance is not going anywhere, unless truly they find some way to get Aaron Rodgers in town, and that seems to be a very very low chance considering both are in NFC.

Myself, I"m big on Lance. Got him in a few dynasties as well as a nice little stack of various rookie cards as well haha so I'm all in on Trey Lance for sure. 

 
Assuming they make the switch - this run has to be a massive positive experience for Lance to be soaking up - so many highly drafted rookie QBs are put into terrible situations....Lance is going to move right into a legit Super Bowl ready team.  The only times I can remember that happening is Mahomes and Rodgers.  
It’s rare. Russell Wilson was in one of the best situations quick. Steve young, but now we’re reaching back pretty far. 
but yeah, for a QB to be drafted top 3, not even play (much) as a rookie and watch his team make the Conference championship has to be extremely rare, if ever. 

 
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Oh yeah for sure I feel ya there. 

Lance is not going anywhere, unless truly they find some way to get Aaron Rodgers in town, and that seems to be a very very low chance considering both are in NFC.

Myself, I"m big on Lance. Got him in a few dynasties as well as a nice little stack of various rookie cards as well haha so I'm all in on Trey Lance for sure. 
I'm in 100% agreement. One of my friends is a card investor and I've been imploring him to buy high end Lance cards. I'm not a market expert but I have to think there has been some kind of dip in his cards.

With regard to roto- I'm all in, trying to obtain.

Within 2 years Lance will be in the Lamar, Allen bucket in roto. He might be slightly less great in real football because he still lacks polish and refinement, but he's going to be a high end QB1.

 
This couldnt have went any better for SF - except for winning lol - they have a great team in place and are very close to going over the top ala KC when Mahomes took over.  Besides getting them a better trade value for Jimmy - If Lance can develop and just be as good as Jimmy G (not a high bar) - with his running ability SF is going to be tough to beat next year.  I give them credit for going for it and letting the kid develop after spending so much on him - but its time to unleash!  

 
This couldnt have went any better for SF - except for winning lol - they have a great team in place and are very close to going over the top ala KC when Mahomes took over.  Besides getting them a better trade value for Jimmy - If Lance can develop and just be as good as Jimmy G (not a high bar) - with his running ability SF is going to be tough to beat next year.  I give them credit for going for it and letting the kid develop after spending so much on him - but its time to unleash!  
I would say it couldn't have worked out any better for Lance but I am not so sure about SF.  From what I have seen Lance is not anywhere close to being ready to be an NFL QB.  He can run but decision making, experience, and passing is a definite negative at this point.  

 
I would say it couldn't have worked out any better for Lance but I am not so sure about SF.  From what I have seen Lance is not anywhere close to being ready to be an NFL QB.  He can run but decision making, experience, and passing is a definite negative at this point.  
I believe he is better than Lamar Jackson was after his rookie season.  I believe you are being too critical of Lance in a lot of posts.  I believe he could be better than Mahomes eventually.  He was a great passer in college, not some running QB only.  In 2019 he threw for 28 TDs and 0 interceptions. 

 
He can run but decision making, experience, and passing is a definite negative at this point
Like most rookie QB’s. This off-season, with being able to take all the first-team reps with DeeBo and Kittle and company, and knowing he’s the captain of the ship now should be enormous in his development. 

 
I believe he is better than Lamar Jackson was after his rookie season.  I believe you are being too critical of Lance in a lot of posts.  I believe he could be better than Mahomes eventually.  He was a great passer in college, not some running QB only.  In 2019 he threw for 28 TDs and 0 interceptions. 
Against inferior, non NFL caliber players.  I don't doubt he could eventually become an NFL caliber QB.....I just don't think he has the experience or is ready to do that anytime soon.  It could happen but I think he has a long way to go.  

 
Against inferior, non NFL caliber players.  I don't doubt he could eventually become an NFL caliber QB.....I just don't think he has the experience or is ready to do that anytime soon.  It could happen but I think he has a long way to go.  
Hell of lot ready IMO than a lot of rookie qbs thrown in to start.  Or at least should be given the same consideration.  A lot of rookie QBs chosen high didn't get the luxury to sit as much as he has already.  Not all of them bust either.  Peyton Manning led the league in interceptions his rookie year.

 
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Against inferior, non NFL caliber players.  I don't doubt he could eventually become an NFL caliber QB.....I just don't think he has the experience or is ready to do that anytime soon.  It could happen but I think he has a long way to go.  
Hell of lot ready IMO than a lot of rookie qbs thrown in to start.  Or at least should be given the same consideration.  A lot of rookie QBs chosen high didn't get the luxury to sit as much as he has already.  Not all of them bust either.  Peyton Manning led the league in interceptions his rookie year.
Both are fair points - he has to learn to prove it against teams that are much better than South Dakota State or James Madison. But also being able to absorb the game from the sidelines may do him a world of good than if he were thrown to the wolves. I would expect that team brass will have Lance work some type of QB camp/guru in the offseason to help him get ready.

 
Both are fair points - he has to learn to prove it against teams that are much better than South Dakota State or James Madison. But also being able to absorb the game from the sidelines may do him a world of good than if he were thrown to the wolves. I would expect that team brass will have Lance work some type of QB camp/guru in the offseason to help him get ready.


Just to name a few:

Steve McNair - Alcorn St.

Kurt Warner - Northern Iowa

Ben Roethlisberger - Miami of Ohio

Rich Gannon - Delaware

Ken O'Brien - UC Davis

Phil Simms - Morehead St.

Doug Williams Grambling

Terry Bradshaw - Louisiana Tech

Johnny Unitas - Louisville (nobody then)

Tony Romo - Eastern Illinois

Daunte Culpepper - UCF

Chad Pennington - Marshall

Ryan Fitzpatrick - Harvard

 
Just to name a few:

Steve McNair - Alcorn St.

Kurt Warner - Northern Iowa

Ben Roethlisberger - Miami of Ohio

Rich Gannon - Delaware

Ken O'Brien - UC Davis

Phil Simms - Morehead St.

Doug Williams Grambling

Terry Bradshaw - Louisiana Tech

Johnny Unitas - Louisville (nobody then)

Tony Romo - Eastern Illinois

Daunte Culpepper - UCF

Chad Pennington - Marshall

Ryan Fitzpatrick - Harvard
Of course there are always exceptions, just like the list is longer among those from small schools (or big schools, for that matter) that failed. I do think the inexperience in college is a bigger deal than who he played against his one full year in college. That is where his year of holding the clipboard may come more so in handy.

 
Both are fair points - he has to learn to prove it against teams that are much better than South Dakota State or James Madison. But also being able to absorb the game from the sidelines may do him a world of good than if he were thrown to the wolves. I would expect that team brass will have Lance work some type of QB camp/guru in the offseason to help him get ready.
I have never said that this year was bad for him and that it wouldn't help him get better.  On the contrary I think he needs another year (at least) of seasoning before he is ready.  I think his inexperience and lack of games (and those games being against inferior opponents) is a big deal and that he isn't ready.  

 
Jimmy G about to have thumb surgery, with a 4-6 recovery period.

While it shouldn’t change the inevitable move to Lance next year, a Jimmy trade probably doesn’t happen (if at all) for some time. We’ll see if it affects the value return for the Niners.

 
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