I understand that it might be an enjoyable task to kill time before participating in a real draft (kind of like watching pre-season games prior to opening day), but wouldn't your time be better spent studying average ADP figures rather than spending the time required to gather data from one single draft?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Question for those who participate in mock drafts (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KCC
- Start date
bigfeet_88
Footballguy
Studying ADP is like studying the play book.
Mock Drafts are like playing in a pre-season game.
Prepares you to adapt to different situations that may come up that you just can get from just looking at the numbers (plays).
If your draft isn't "Average", then what are you going to do?
Mock Drafts are like playing in a pre-season game.
Prepares you to adapt to different situations that may come up that you just can get from just looking at the numbers (plays).
If your draft isn't "Average", then what are you going to do?
But isn't there a far greater probability of your actual draft looking more like the ADP figures than the result of one singular mock? Also, with most ADP figures, you also can see the range of when players were drafted. FWIW, I think your "different situations" argument is a valid one and that dealing with unexpected picks in a mock may be training yourself to be more flexable during the real thing. I hadn't considered that.
bigfeet_88
Footballguy
I think most people who do mock drafts don't just participate in one singular draft. They do many. It's basically practice.
A mock draft that simulates the same time restraints you will have in your real draft is a good learning experience I believe. You can evaluate your own results afterward and improve upon things you probably could only see in hindsight. Reaching for a playing, waiting for a player, trying RB-WR-RB instead of RB, RB, WR, etc.
A mock draft that simulates the same time restraints you will have in your real draft is a good learning experience I believe. You can evaluate your own results afterward and improve upon things you probably could only see in hindsight. Reaching for a playing, waiting for a player, trying RB-WR-RB instead of RB, RB, WR, etc.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
For someone like me who doesn't have time to sit in a mock draft room, I'll run draft scenarios in the DD from various spots on the board to give myself and ideas of worst-case scenarios since I know that several of my league rivals don't know what ADP is, much less follow it. I know that if one or more of them go off and reach for somebody, the chances are better that value will fall to me with my next pick.
M
MLBrandow
Guest
Well, one more thing is you can test out certain draft strategies.
I've had great success going RB WR WR and holding off on #2 RB until 5/6, but I'm going to try something different in tonight's mock.
Best part is I don't have to burn a league to try it. I can look at my team as the draft unfolds and see if I take Gates in the 2nd, if Gonzo is staring at me in the fourth, etc.
Peyton on the 1/2 turn might seem like a good deal until you're staring at Palmer on the 4/5 turn.
I've had great success going RB WR WR and holding off on #2 RB until 5/6, but I'm going to try something different in tonight's mock.
Best part is I don't have to burn a league to try it. I can look at my team as the draft unfolds and see if I take Gates in the 2nd, if Gonzo is staring at me in the fourth, etc.
Peyton on the 1/2 turn might seem like a good deal until you're staring at Palmer on the 4/5 turn.
You are assuming the worst case scenario for ADP figures and the best case scenario for a single draft. The benefit of ADP figures is that with a larger sample size you have less error than you are likely to find if n=1. Also, the fact that ADP figures usually provide the range of where a players was drafted lets you know when you should reach for a player (i.e. using the lowest figure of the range) if you want to be relatively sure of having him on your team.
In addition to practicing for the REAL draft, you can do the mocks which are Survivor Leagues on a site like xpertleagues and keep up with them throughout the year. That way you are putting your best effort into them each time. This only makes you more prepared for your actual draft. 
Averages are made up of deviations from it. Your draft will not look like the ADP, it will be some variation upon it. ADP gives you one pattern, but it isn't really sensical by team.
Drafts fall into certain kinds of patterns based on the strategies of the different owners. If more teams go WR or QB early, good RBs slide into the 3rd round. Owners get locked into certain positions because of what they've selected in previous rounds. Doing mock drafts allows you to get a feel for how a draft is likely to unfold based on how it opens up.
Drafts fall into certain kinds of patterns based on the strategies of the different owners. If more teams go WR or QB early, good RBs slide into the 3rd round. Owners get locked into certain positions because of what they've selected in previous rounds. Doing mock drafts allows you to get a feel for how a draft is likely to unfold based on how it opens up.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
This may be hard to explain, but I like doing mock drafts every night first because they are better than anything on television. Second, because I am studying ADPs. I am watching them in action. Every draft I do is another exposure to ADPs in play. They are not set figures. They are fluid. You can learn far more about ADPs doing mock drafts, or just studying mock drafts, than you can by studying the static figures.
Some of these players have very squirelly ADPs. Others are more stable. Willis McGahee, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Domanick Davis, and Ron Dayne are all over the place lately. Many others just drop like dominos right about where the number says they should. If someone reaches for Gates it doesn't set off a run at TE, but Shockey and Gonzo in peril if you want them. If Manning goes in the first what effect does that have on Brady, Hass and Palmer. Almost a full round is what I am seeing. If Galloway goes early, Clayton lingers. If Galloway falls, Clayton goes earlier. Go figure? I can give you a dozen of these draft quircks, but you cannot know them by studying ADPs. You have to study mocks, or like me, do them.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
What he said.
M
MLBrandow
Guest
Staring at a bunch of charts isn't as good as staring at a bunch of charts when you're in round 7 of a mock, and half the WRs you thought would be there aren't.I think I'd put it in the category of "don't knock it 'till you try it". You seem to not be very inclined in mocks.
You should get in on the next mock I do (probably tomorrow night). For me, it makes me a better drafter each time I do it.
When you look at ADP of round 7 WRs, continuing the example, it's not the same as when you take that round 7 WR you were targeting, and then find that in the 9th round, you see a WR that seems equal to the one you took, only now the three TEs you wanted are gone, and there's a slew of crap and a hole on your roster.
Stuff like that can only be found in mocks IMO. Also, it is much easier to spot trends in mocks.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Additionally for me, having done dozens of drafts makes me calm cool and collected when my pick is due. As my name suggests, I commish chaos- two frantic live 25 round IDP redrafts, full of all kinds of distractions. Going back a few years, I used to look at a draft and see several things I would have done differently if not for the distractions. It wasn't a case of sayinig I would have taken player x instead of player z if I knew y was going to happen later in the draft. It was literally, doh, I should have taken x there knowing what I already knew. The pressure of moderating/commishing caused me to make mistakes. So, I discovered mocking. Now I can pretty much draft, moderate, and flirt with the cocktail waitress without ever second guessing my picks later.
noor at least it's more like "hands on" studying of ADP.
By late August, I (and many others that do mocks alot) feel like I can predict who goes in where quite accurately. That's a huge advantage on draft day.
There are guys like Vick that fluctuate so much the ADP is irrelevant, like 1st thru 12th round. 6th round ADP would tell ya precious little you can plan on.
Sometimes ADP is less important than knowing what players seem to be picked 1,2,3 regardless of round. After TE X went TE Y+Z went shortly after in every single draft. That's happenned alot in my experience and if everyone else is waiting on a TE and it gives me one more round of a top WR or another RB I'll take it.
I don't look at it as an either/or. I enjoy studing and checking out my ADP, but then doing a mock draft shows you how the average guy has certain players valued, maybe much higher than me. It helps me predict some of the slight variances and human errors that are going to occur in my real drafts.
