Glad some of the more experienced runners have spoken up, based on that training cycle I was thinking 3 hrs flat was the goal. 3:12 will be easy!(speaking from the viewpoint of never having run more than 15 miles in one shot)
I appreciate your confidence, but I'm definitely not in sub 3 shape. I'm not going to even try. My PR in the half is 1:31, so I'm not about to go out start tossing down 6:50 miles to start the marathon.
Lots at play as I approach this marathon and zero in on my time.
Please realize this is somewhere around marathon 22-24 for me (I lost count and need to go back and recount at some point). The quick and obvious performance gains have already been accounted for in previous races. At Indy in 2019, I felt like I ran the perfect marathon with pacing and fueling, etc......and I ran a 3:12:43. It was just over a 2 minute PR. Here it is, 2 years later, the first real race in 2 years, I'm traveling across 9 time zones in a week's time to get myself to London, its a large race (with tons of logistics concerns.....this is more like NYC than Chicago in terms of getting to the start. But its worse, because I need to take the train out there, so I envision standing on a train packed with people for 30-45 minutes.) Weather forecast is looking like temp around 60 with a headwind of 15 mph. And
@MAC_32 acknowledged that this week has been totally stressful (work is insane, kids are needy, wife has things she needs me to do around the house since I traveled last week and my mother in law is visiting this week). And to top it all off, my wife is going on this trip, which is generally cool, but she is not going to want me laying around for 3 days before the race. I told her I'd go to some museum she wants to see on Friday.
I'd love to try to go out and blast it out, but I think I'm going to go out around a more conservative, but still PR pace, and see how it goes. I'd be absoultely ecstatic with a 3 minute PR considering everything.
I fly out tonight (and will get another 4 hours of sleep....which has been the average this week.) Its 4 a.m. right now and I'm heading into work shortly to get some things done before I run home and pack up my stuff (haven't had time so nothing is packed yet for this trip) and then head to the airport. Might do a quick run if there is any time. We will see.