So, yeah, I worry about the education sector a lot. For higher ed: Will the loss of jobs and income hits cause more students to defer starting college or to start at community colleges? Will students stay close to home so they can commute (which could play to my school's favor as the first near-west suburb of Chicago)? And as everywhere, what do we do if even a single case pops up? When the first student of ours was tested in early March(ultimately negative), I immediately received emails from students in my classes who were fearful of coming to campus. Without testing, tracing, and treatment, I don't see that scenario changing.
@SteelCurtain, are your effects magnified because of a potential New York stigma? My school is putting on a good face for now, but that's the nature of our very long-time president. And just to say, I've been just fine teaching in an on-line format. As I've seen through the years, I get more interaction from on-line discussion topics than I get in the classroom, where everyone sits quietly because I'm the so-call expert up front.
For pre-schools, elementary, middle schools, and high schools ...yeesh. What will happen? They have more close-knit interactions than we do at the college level. You can't spread out students in already-full classrooms and lunch rooms. How do parents make the impossible choice in the fall if schools are open? Keeping children home sets them back, but how do parents dare send their students to school without the 3Ts being widespread?
I've been meaning to respond to this. I think higher ed is going to radically change due to COVID. In the past, schools were trying to keep up with the Joneses. Everyone was building the nicest labs, dining hall, residence halls, athletic facilities, etc. because you were at a competitive disadvantage if you didn't. Some schools are leveraged pretty bad and don't have lots of financial flexibility.
Some schools have really large endowments but much of that money is restricted for use, so it can't be used for what the institution needs. In addition, many of those schools rely on the endowment to help fund operations (i.e., they use 3-5% of their endowment to pay for operating expenses). Problem is, when the endowment goes down 10-20%, then their money gleaned from endowment for operations will also go down 10-20%.
There are fewer students (demographically) going off to college before COVID. Families were increasingly price conscious before COVID so fewer families were willing to pay what the schools were offering. Colleges were discounting their tuition more and more as a way to entice students. Now that COVID has hit, there is even less demand (students now thinking they will take a gap year), potential loss of all or a large number of international students, economy has taken a hit -- therefore families are even less likely to pay tuition prices, colleges are desperate so discounting even more than ever before. Families questioning whether they should pay a premium for the potential of online learning. Colleges dealing with the possibility of not opening and not realizing residence hall and dining hall revenue (which both help pay debt service, operations, etc.) Colleges now needing to make changes due to COVID that costs money (smaller classes, additional technology infrastructure, limited space in residence halls (can't triple up kids), big time college football is very much in doubt for the fall (cash cow at some places), etc.
Public institutions are already hearing about massive cuts to state aid to those institutions so expect fewer services (career, counseling, advising, etc.), antiquated labs/technology/etc, and larger classes.
We are looking at a perfect storm of financial devastation at colleges. Eventually, colleges will close. Others will lay off/furlough tons of faculty/staff which in some small towns could be devastating if the college is the biggest employer in town.
We are seeing students across the country indicate they are more likely to stay close to home, however, certainly we have seen some students from California, Hawaii, Washington, Texas, Florida tell us they don't want to go to NY because of COVID.
@tri-man 47 - certainly some classes and faculty have made a seamless move to online. However, others have really struggled. Its almost impossible to replicate a science lab online. And some faculty are just not as innovative with technology as others. Finally, at many schools, the education happens both in the classroom but also through other experiences (living in the residence hall, study abroad, internships, etc) and the online experience will dilute that for students.
As for elementary schools, I have no idea what they will do. I know some have looked at flex scheduling so kids are online some days and in school other days, therefore the elementary school only has 50% capacity at a time. But then what do parents who both work do? There are no easy answers. I'm glad I don't have to figure that problem out!